Ace of Spades HQ

September 09, 2010

Carville's Liberal Polling Outfit: Democrats Lead Republicans 47 - 40
— Ace

Democrats lead 47-40 among "drop off voters" -- voters not likely to vote this year. I suppose that's not actually as bad as I imagined to be; I figured it would be 55-35 or something. But then, he does skew (I imagine) a bit liberal.

On the actual number you want to know: the GOP leads 49-42 among likely voters.

Thanks to ArthurK for suggesting the dishonest headline, which is my favorite kind of headline, because it makes me feel like I'm a real part of the MFM.

More: At Hot Air. Same poll:

Economy Â– Republicans lead 48/36
Â“On your sideÂ” Â– Rep, 41/37
Government spending Â– Rep, 49/31
Federal deficit Â– Rep, 50/32

My favorite is the "on your side" one, because that's an emotional driver -- and you know I think emotion is 88% of this -- and because Democrats usually enjoy a big advantage there. They are the party that's quote "for the little guy" unquote and quote "workin' for the workin' man" unquote and quote "all the rest of the horseshit they've been peddling since William Jennings Bryan" unquote.

And now we edge them. Not a big edge, but an edge.

They really had to work hard to reverse that impression from a net plus to a net minus. And work hard at it they did.

Posted by: Ace at 08:08 AM | Comments (80)
Post contains 248 words, total size 2 kb.

1 hmmmmmmmmmm

Posted by: elspeth at September 09, 2010 08:09 AM (0AkWH)

2 Bwhahaha! I'm sure the Dems will spin this to favor them somehow.

Posted by: runningrn at September 09, 2010 08:13 AM (8GYOu)

3 Looking like the MFM may not be something you want emulate, but I can understand the desire to be in the short pants club.

Posted by: Museisluse at September 09, 2010 08:13 AM (DTfXb)

4 In the immortal words of Jimmuh Carville his own self, "We're dyin' down heah!"

Posted by: MrScribbler at September 09, 2010 08:13 AM (Ulu3i)

5 Reminds me of the Onion article: "Available labor increases to 10.2%"

Did I find that link here or at Hot Air?

Posted by: Y-not at September 09, 2010 08:13 AM (osFsP)

6 Intrade, democrats, 20%, YMMV.

Posted by: In before the In before the Troll Guy at September 09, 2010 08:15 AM (MMC8r)

7 To whom should we send our thanks? Every time someone talks about the 'coming wave', this can be ahuled out with the atached urge to not neglect GOTV efforts. We cannot affors this, and this announcement, tied to voter enthusiasm, are the keys for a Fall surge.

Posted by: Blue Hen at September 09, 2010 08:15 AM (R2fpr)

8 I guess it's high for both due to it being a mid-term. Any idea what the numbers were comparing 06 to 04?

Posted by: Randy at September 09, 2010 08:16 AM (zQKSr)

9 If dishonest headlines is what you like, go to Politico and check out the article on anchor babies and illegal immigration.

The headline screams that a "study" shows changing the Constitution the remove anchor babies provisions will increase illegal immigration. Not because more people will enter illegally, the article never even addresses that question....I won't explain the punch-line, but lets just say there's some fun with math and categorization that the author ties in a pretzel to get the desired outcome of the headline. WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Posted by: The Hammer at September 09, 2010 08:17 AM (32ubA)

10 About that jobs report, just makin stuff up now. (from ZH)

The BLS has announced that as a result of the Labor Day weekend, 9 states (among which the biggest one California) did not report initial claims data to the bean counters, so instead the government had to "estimate" what the data would have been: yep, estimate, what the data was in these nine states.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at September 09, 2010 08:19 AM (L8kaT)

11 I don't understand it. For two years we've been spitting in their faces. You'd think they'd be thanking us.

Posted by: Barack Obama at September 09, 2010 08:22 AM (xxgag)

I'm going to gather up all poll information and have a poll burning. I expect many bloggers will riot.

Posted by: polynikes

Since Delaware is the first state, I demand that you burn the Delaware numbers first. Or, I will run rampant. Or molt. I haven't quite decided yet.

Posted by: Blue Hen at September 09, 2010 08:22 AM (R2fpr)

13 The headline screams that a "study" shows changing the Constitution the remove anchor babies provisions will increase illegal immigration. Not because more people will enter illegally, the article never even addresses that question....I won't explain the punch-line, but lets just say there's some fun with math and categorization that the author ties in a pretzel to get the desired outcome of the headline. WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

Posted by: The Hammer at September 09, 2010 12:17 PM (32ubA)

Heh, let me guess. Since the children would be now classified as illegal rather than citizens illegal immigration would rise according to the number born? I guess amnesty would decrease illegal immigration to zero.

Of course, that raises the obvious but important point that what we object to isn't what label people are given, but whether or not they are aware of and accept American values and laws.

Posted by: Randy at September 09, 2010 08:23 AM (zQKSr)

14
2.5 ejaculations

Posted by: mr boner?, mr boner?, paging mr boner?g at September 09, 2010 08:24 AM (uFokq)

15 God forbid the RCP average includes THIS poll and the NBC poll showing R+9, Gallup would look even more stupid.

Posted by: CAC at September 09, 2010 08:24 AM (lV4Fs)

16 I'm trying to imagine what kind of constitution Mary Matalin must have to wake up next to the Skeletor every day. As for having "relations" with him {{shudder}} I can't go there.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at September 09, 2010 08:25 AM (UOM48)

I'm going to gather up all poll information and have a poll burning. I expect many bloggers will riot. Posted by: polynikes at September 09, 2010 12:18 PM

Ed "Poppin' Fresh" Morrissey hardest hit.

Posted by: MrScribbler at September 09, 2010 08:27 AM (Ulu3i)

The only thing Carville is really good at is being ugly.

Ugly as a mud fence.

Ugly as shit on a stick.

Ugly so he scares little kids and old ladies.

Ugly as hammered sin.

Ugly enough to land a starring role in a monster movie.

Ugly so he doesn't wear a mask to Halloween parties.

Posted by: maddogg at September 09, 2010 08:27 AM (OlN4e)

19 I'm trying to imagine what kind of constitution Mary Matalin must have to wake up next to the Skeletor every day. As for having "relations" with him {{shudder}} I can't go there.

Have you seen Mary Matalin?

Posted by: Ted Kennedy's Gristle Encased Head at September 09, 2010 08:30 AM (+lsX1)

20 Carville is a numbers guy and has been screaming about the drop in Dem enthusiasm for months. The problem is, it is next to impossible to galvanize a huge chunk of the disinterested electorate EIGHT WEEKS BEFORE THE ELECTION. Had they worked on this starting in the summer, there would be a shot, but that time has passed, and the consequences of that are being spelled out by Carville. Just a review of the generic ballot advantage- CNN +7 R Carville +7R Ras +12R ABC +13R NBC +9R Quinn +5 R USAToday +6R Fox +9 Only Newsweek shows what Gallup shows.

Posted by: CAC at September 09, 2010 08:30 AM (lV4Fs)

21 Why do people keep asking me if I looked into the Ark of the Covenant?

Posted by: James Carville at September 09, 2010 08:31 AM (zgZzy)

22 Right Track 30.3% Wrong Track 62.8%*

At first I thought how the hell can 30% of the country think we are on the right track, and then I remembered, public employee unions.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at September 09, 2010 08:33 AM (L8kaT)

23 William Jennings Bryan voting Democrat Republican this year

Posted by: Neo at September 09, 2010 08:34 AM (tE8FB)

24 Even dead people will be switching this year.

Posted by: Neo at September 09, 2010 08:35 AM (tE8FB)

25 I'm trying to imagine what kind of constitution Mary Matalin must have to wake up next to the Skeletor every day. As for having "relations" with him {{shudder}} I can't go there.

Have you seen Mary Matalin?

Posted by: Ted Kennedy's Gristle Encased Head

No, but I've heard of her. Which is more than she can claim.

I'm going to Hell for that, aren't I?

Posted by: Blue Hen at September 09, 2010 08:35 AM (R2fpr)

26 Democrats lead among dead voters too. In fact they have 200% of that vote

Posted by: TheQuietMan at September 09, 2010 08:35 AM (1Jaio)

In the immortal words of Jimmuh Carville his own self, "We're dyin' down heah!"

Carville belongs in a remake of "Deliverance".

I'm trying to imagine what kind of constitution Mary Matalin must have to wake up next to the Skeletor every day. As for having "relations" with him {{shudder}} I can't go there.

Actually, they have a mutual con game going on. He is the Redneck the Left can love, she is the pouting flirting sexpot for the Right. (I have seen interviews with her and that is how she comes across). He hustles them on the Left, she hustles them on the Right, and they laugh all the way to the bank together.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 09, 2010 08:36 AM (ujg0T)

_{2.5 ejaculations}

Dat's that ejakalat!

Posted by: Leon at September 09, 2010 08:37 AM (8enjY)

I'm going to gather up all poll information and have a poll burning. I expect many bloggers will riot.

Posted by: polynikes

I will run riot as well. Though admittedly, I'll probably go in the wrong direction.

Posted by: Stanislau Pulaski at September 09, 2010 08:38 AM (R2fpr)

Only Newsweek shows what Gallup shows.

The Gallup Rules:

If Gallup says slight Democrat lead, it's neck and neck.

If Gallup says neck and neck, there is a slight Republican lead.

If Gallupsays slight Republican lead, it's a Republican blowout.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 09, 2010 08:38 AM (ujg0T)

31 I was once polled by a NJ journalist on which party I found sexier. I told her I'd prefer to sleep with one of those extras from Xanadu and she wrote down "democrat". I think that says a lot.

Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at September 09, 2010 08:39 AM (HaYO4)

32 Only Newsweek shows what Gallup shows.

Damn. That's just...damn.

Posted by: AmishDude at September 09, 2010 08:40 AM (T0NGe)

33 Sacred Honor Watch:

"I stood up against Mark Sanford. Nikki Haley says she wants to follow in his footsteps. I say this time, we need a governor we can trust."

http://3.ly/NcGN

Posted by: yarrrr at September 09, 2010 08:42 AM (z3txl)

34 Heh. Newsweek. I'd buy that for a dollar.....

Posted by: maddogg at September 09, 2010 08:42 AM (OlN4e)

35 Even dead people will be switching this year.

Whilst I am enamored with the cut of this Obama gentleman's jib, I am frightened by the countenance and, indeed, the odoriferousness of Madame Pelosi and the gentle Mr. Harry Reid. Thus, though I have been for many decades a staunch Democrat voter, I must warily deign to spend this election as a spectator.

Posted by: Jebediah Farquahr 1837-1914 at September 09, 2010 08:43 AM (5aa4z)

36 Here's a better link for the Sacred Honor Watch

http://3.ly/pksS

Posted by: yarrrr at September 09, 2010 08:43 AM (z3txl)

37 I have always assumed that he had powers and abilities far beyond those of mortal men *hold hands 14 inches apart*

Pshaw.

Posted by: Pat Caddell at September 09, 2010 08:43 AM (5aa4z)

38 I just refreshed Drudge and it's chock full o' bad news for the donks:

From TIME:

What happened to Barack Obama's once vaunted political machine? The outfit that put upwards of 8 million volunteers on the street in 2008 Â— known as Organizing for America Â— is a ghost of its former self. Its staff has shrunk from 6,000 to 300, and its donors are depressed: receipts are a fraction of what they were in 2008. Virtually no one in politics believes it will turn many contests this fall. "There's no chance that OFA is going to have the slightest impact on the midterms," says Charlie Cook, who tracks congressional races.
------

Tri-C students recruited to fill the seats for Obama's appearance

With less than an hour before President Obama's scheduled speech, 75 seats remained empty in the recreation center at Cuyahoga Community College's Western Campus. So organizers went around campus and recruited more students to fill the seats
------

From Rasmussen:

Overall, 41% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-eight percent (58%) disapprove.
------

The donk bad news continues to grow.

Posted by: Ed Anger at September 09, 2010 08:44 AM (7+pP9)

39 Of course we're leading. You have me...

Posted by: B to the Zero at September 09, 2010 08:44 AM (FcR7P)

40 Bring de ambulamps.

Posted by: Donk with a bloody nose at September 09, 2010 08:44 AM (6yPbV)

41 Carville.....so ugly his momma fed him with a slingshot.

Posted by: Mr. Dave at September 09, 2010 08:45 AM (jH9zI)

42 I'm more concerned about that kiss Shawn laid on Juliet last night. Is he teh ghey? Well, it would explain him hanging out with Gus all the time.

Posted by: Moi at September 09, 2010 08:48 AM (Ez4Ql)

43 Interestingly, the Newsweek poll isn't biased in a reliable way like Gallup, it's just wrong. Sometimes they will actually show a reasonable (albeit slightly biased to the Dems) result.

Gallup is much more reliably biased.

But don't worry, the pollsters will soon all be showing a "surge" to the Republicans, when they have to adjust their numbers away from the usual bias and show how close they were to the actual result.

Posted by: AmishDude at September 09, 2010 08:48 AM (T0NGe)

At first I thought how the hell can 30% of the country think we are on the right track, and then I remembered, public employee unions.~Guy Fawkes

Unionistas suffer from a failure of imagination. What they can't imagine is what would happen if "their track" actually succeeded. If their track succeeded everyone would be Union and nobody would have an advantage by being in a union because there wouldn't be a private sector to extort anymore.

Posted by: Speller at September 09, 2010 08:48 AM (qaOKJ)

45 The outfit that put upwards of 8 million volunteers on the street in 2008 Â— known as Organizing for America Â— is a ghost of its former self.

You're welcome.

Posted by: Hannah Giles, James O'Keefe and Andrew Breitbart at September 09, 2010 08:49 AM (T0NGe)

46 #37 ...Ok you beat me to it. (I claim a TinyURL delay)

I'd Buy That For a Dollar!

Posted by: AE at September 09, 2010 08:50 AM (1bZ96)

47

And here's a real shocker from my back yard:

Republican challenger Tom Marino holds a 13-point lead over Democratic Congressman Chris Carney in Pennsylvania's 10th Congressional District. In a survey conducted August 31 and September 1, Carney trailed Marino 36 percent to 49 percent with 15 percent of voters undecided

Posted by: Ed Anger at September 09, 2010 08:50 AM (7+pP9)

48 "Overall, 41% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the president's performance. Fifty-eight percent (58%) disapprove. ------" He only has to lose 2 more points before I throw myself a party. I hope he makes a couple speeches next week to put him over (under?) the top.

Posted by: Lincolntf at September 09, 2010 08:50 AM (gmZ7Y)

No, but I've heard of her. Which is more than she can claim.

I'm going to Hell for that, aren't I?

Mary Matalin <> Marlee Matlin

your eternal soul is safe for now.

Posted by: Ted Kennedy's Gristle Encased Head at September 09, 2010 08:50 AM (+lsX1)

50 Red Hots! Get your Red Hots!

Posted by: Joey Plugs at September 09, 2010 08:52 AM (GwPRU)

So many of the past guide lines on voters have dissappeared...

MFM's ink is replaced by the web & talk radio

Voters didn't wait for Labor Day to be concerned about voting

Americans scattered across the continent now have something to unifiy them

Thye enthusiasm to make a historic vote will be overwhelmed by the wave to vote in the most earth shattering vote toppling a Kommie govorment

God bless the USA

Posted by: serfer62 at September 09, 2010 08:53 AM (HLCnI)

Thanks to ArthurK for suggesting the dishonest headline, which is my favorite kind of headline, because it makes me feel like I'm a real part of the MFM.

Don't get cocky, kid!

On second thought - have you having these feelings of self-loathing for very long? Do you ever think of hurting yourself?

Posted by: sherlock at September 09, 2010 08:54 AM (cq3pU)

53 Carville and Seal (moonscape face) are proof that even spectacularly ugly guys can get laid by fine women (I wonder what that says for the women). But at least Seal can sing, all Carville can do is croak like a toad choking on a cricket.

Posted by: maddogg at September 09, 2010 08:55 AM (OlN4e)

54 My favorite is the "on your side" one, because that's an emotional driver -- and you know I think emotion is 88% of this

Especially for "independents"

-- and because Democrats usually enjoy a big advantage there. They are the party that's quote "for the little guy" unquote and quote "workin' for the workin' man" unquote and quote "all the rest of the horseshit they've been peddling since William Jennings Bryan" unquote.

No kidding. But this is the same thing that European socialist parties do. They are parties of the elite and privileged who screw the middle class in order to assuage their guilt towards the poor.

If the way Obama treated Joe the Plumber wasn't emblematic, I don't know what was.

Posted by: AmishDude at September 09, 2010 08:56 AM (T0NGe)

55 PPP is out with its polling of the two Maine Congressional races and...whoa. We've got a shot at picking up some seriously blue seats.

Chelie Pingree (in the more liberal 1st district) is only pulling 47%-38% against a complete unknown. And Mike Michaud (in the more competitive, ultra-rural ME-2) is in *serious* danger: 45%-38% against a similarly unknown Jason Levesque. Both GOP challengers have a lot of room to grow, especially with independents.

Holy shit.

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 09, 2010 08:56 AM (NjYDy)

56 An Austrailian told me today for all of us to hang on to our guns. The Founders wanted the government to be frightened of us.

Posted by: Mr. Dave at September 09, 2010 08:57 AM (jH9zI)

57 does anyone remember carville wearing that garbage can on his head, on CNN? It happened last time repubs won congress. I played with myself.

Posted by: jfalcon, the bewildered, in Vegas at September 09, 2010 08:57 AM (lPu+Z)

Thanks to ArthurK for suggesting the dishonest headline, which is my favorite kind of headline, because it makes me feel like I'm a real part of the MFM.

Oh, and would you be willing to be an MFM-substitute sacrifice if we can find an erupting volcano? Or do you know Pinch Sulzberger's home address?

Posted by: sherlock at September 09, 2010 08:58 AM (cq3pU)

59 I sent Carville an tweet asking if he was going to man up and be live on TV election night. Lets see if he responds.

Posted by: Jean at September 09, 2010 09:00 AM (Hx1qz)

No, but I've heard of her. Which is more than she can claim.

I'm going to Hell for that, aren't I?

Mary Matalin <> Marlee Matlin

your eternal soul is safe for now.

Posted by: Ted Kennedy's Gristle Encased Head

Perhaps. But my sense of aim certainly went to Hell.

Posted by: Blue Hen at September 09, 2010 09:01 AM (R2fpr)

OT: Well don't that beat all.

Military Burns Unsolicited Bibles in Afghanistan.

http://tinyurl.com/2cqynmo

Posted by: robtr at September 09, 2010 09:03 AM (fwSHf)

OT - On Megyn Kelly now

Department of Homeland Security needs more time for porn surfing - ordering local law enforcement to let illegals go.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at September 09, 2010 09:03 AM (r1h5M)

63 I'm all for the gop taking over everything they can in November because of the census/redistricting that happens in 2011. That being said: anything that happens November 3rd is now the result of republicans being voted into power so go BIG D! and since the mainstream piss media won't oblige, skewing the stream will make 2012 a dog fight on the gridiron where inches are not the measurement of gains but europrean metric centimetres are.

Posted by: kay at September 09, 2010 09:04 AM (TW1NB)

64 FBI pays visit to Florida preacher??? Hmmm....

Posted by: jewells at September 09, 2010 09:04 AM (l/N7H)

65 Chelie Pingree (in the more liberal 1st district) is only pulling 47%-38% against a complete unknown. And Mike Michaud (in the more competitive, ultra-rural ME-2) is in *serious* danger: 45%-38% against a similarly unknown Jason Levesque. Both GOP challengers have a lot of room to grow, especially with independents.

I think ME-2 is typically a toss-up at the presidential level. But again, these are examples of races the Republicans can just shrug off and allow the local guys see if they can get some traction and the Dems have to spend money money money to retain them.

This will happen all over the country. No seat is safe.

Posted by: AmishDude at September 09, 2010 09:05 AM (T0NGe)

66 Military Burns Unsolicited Bibles in Afghanistan.

Christianity - the second class religion.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at September 09, 2010 09:06 AM (FkKjr)

67 Turn about's fair play. So turn about Dem and take it like a chicken.

Posted by: The Chicken™ at September 09, 2010 09:10 AM (Ncv/n)

68 I'll stop buring korans when the stop buring Bibles...

Posted by: serfer62 at September 09, 2010 09:12 AM (HLCnI)

69 41- It's even better than that. His total approval is lower than his "Strongly Disapprove." I believe that, back during the assault on Health Care, someone mentioned that once that happened, Presidents usually go "lame duck" fairly quickly.

Posted by: AllenG at September 09, 2010 09:13 AM (8y9MW)

70 67 FBI pays visit to Florida preacher??? Hmmm....

Really?? If true, that's out of line.

Posted by: dogfish at September 09, 2010 09:16 AM (Ncv/n)

71 Really?? If true, that's out of line. We have no idea why (or if) they contacted him. It's quite possible (by which I mean 100% likely) that there have been death threats against the pastor.

Posted by: Lincolntf at September 09, 2010 09:18 AM (gmZ7Y)

72 Let's not start... awwww fuck it, let's have a big gay orgy.

Posted by: Winston Wolf at September 09, 2010 09:21 AM (0EUPu)

73 They will get a big bounce from the DC Union/NAACP/socialist rally (.003%)
--I wonder if Obama will make an appearance.

Posted by: AE at September 09, 2010 09:24 AM (1bZ96)

O/T:

Megyn Kelly just had a blurb on her show about Murko maing a run as an independent and that many republicans are really upset with her decision..

Gee, ya think?

What a fucking douchebag. I hope she runs, I hope Miller CRUSHES her in the general...

Posted by: FreedomFighter at September 09, 2010 09:28 AM (jfOwL)

75 PRESS THE ATTACK!

Posted by: Guy who says " at September 09, 2010 09:36 AM (fLHQe)

76 *

Posted by: Guy who fucks up sockpuppets at September 09, 2010 09:37 AM (fLHQe)

Obama, I hate you, I hate you, I hate you. And you suck.

There I said it, any questions?

Posted by: Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz at September 09, 2010 09:38 AM (4JpPD)

www.iloveinwatch.com

Posted by: kevin117 at September 09, 2010 06:24 PM (fj5ie)

79 Heh. I can picture even Carville going "What the fuck is this bullshit? *channels Gulf rant* We're about to DIE downhere!"

Posted by: Chris in Va at September 09, 2010 11:03 PM (oj52M)

80 Ginza buying area is pictured in middle Tokyo,Jordan retro home to some with one of the most expensive commercial genuine estate even although in the country. Japan's financial bape shoes system expanded additional than in the beginning believed even although in the next quarter, federal government information showed Friday, as domestic firms ramped up money expenditure.Soccer jerseys on 17878996852004

Posted by: chi straightener at September 10, 2010 12:00 AM (S+GtL)

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