1 TV Guide!

2 "This war is lost..."

3

You  just know that if the Dems retain hold of the Senate, every network and Op-Ed will focus on this was a colossal failure for Republicans. And they'll just toss Pelosi aside to save face for Obama.

Sure, you picked up 65 seats in the House, but you couldn't take the Senate, wingers. Suck it!

4 Michelle Obama is ready to launch!  We're not going any where you stupid wingers!

5 This isn't over yet!

Deploy the Michelle!

6 "You  just know that if the Dems retain hold of the Senate, every network and Op-Ed will focus on this was a colossal failure for Republicans. And they'll just toss Pelosi aside to save face for Obama.

Sure, you picked up 65 seats in the House, but you couldn't take the Senate, wingers. Suck it!"

This.  The MSM is engaging in no small amount of expectations jiu-jitsu at the moment.  Get out there, morons.  This thing ain't over.

7 Things are going nonlinear.  The slope is changing very quickly, and not in a good way if you are a Dem.  Think wily coyote running off the cliff, looking around for a few seconds, then poof, long descending whistle into the canyon, followed by the small puff of dust at the bottom and a muffled thud. 

8 5 Michelle Obama is ready to launch!  We're not going any where you stupid wingers!

Stay outta my head, runningrn.  . 

Now I know why this week's been terrible for me, you were close-by.  Next time you come over to da East Cost, please give me a heads up so I can make proper "arrangements".

9 So, how are the donk blogs, including Carlie Johnson, responding to all the bad news?

10 Its not 18 seats. its 12 democratic ones now. We are KILLING in Ohio, ahead clearly in New Hampshire and Missouri, ahead in North Carolina, ahead in Kentucky, and Rubio is clearing ahead in Florida. There are no GOP tossups left in the cycle now- the turfwar is now on blue, not red. Of the 10 seats we then need that are Democrats- we are KILLING in ND,AR,IN,DE,PA. Thats 5. Colorado has a small lead for the GOP as well. Thats 6. We need just 4 out of WA,WI,CA,NV,IL,CT(McMahon is paying to make this a competitive drain for Dems). 4 of 6 is a lot easier to reach than 16 out of 18.

11 The coin IS loaded.

12

We will start the Michelle Offensive with big spreads in Vanity Fair, Rolling Stone, Ladies Home Journal, People Magazine, Newsweek, Time, More, Us, Vogue and more!  We will storm the beaches with boob belts, floral drapery dresses, and expensive designer shoes.  Michelle's arms are toned and strong and ready to squeeze America!

13 Let me be clear, the Voters are acting Stupidly.

14

Oh for anyone that didn't ready the Lady Obama thread from last night, I suggest you go back and take a looksee.

Pay careful attention to 'Average Joe's' insightful commentary.

Oh and you're welcome.

ps....keep your drinks away from your keyboard

15

Now I know why this week's been terrible for me, you were close-by.  Next time you come over to da East Cost, please give me a heads up so I can make proper "arrangements".

 

Heh!  Sorry you had a bad week--next time I'll give you an heads up! 

16 Ace, Apart from the Michelle Obama Factor, you're overlooking the Maddow Multiplier. Seeing moderate Democratic writers and editors on her show from Slate and Newsweek day after day has a cumulative effect on conservative Republicans like me. She actually had a Senior Editor on the other day (possibly even affiliated with an academic Institute) who seemed quite reasonable. Reason and logic, even on subjects on which we have difference, can tip the balance. I see the toss-ups breaking somewhat, if not predominantly, Democratic.

17 Now, I'm clinging feverishly to the hope, the thoroughly unreasonable hope, that we can turn on CNN or Fox on Election Night and see not a single Democrat winning anything anywhere in the country.

MSDNC will be showing a test pattern and playing Tchaikovsky (or possibly Wyclef Jean), waiting for a formal announcement from the Kremlin-on-the-Potomac. 

Too much to hope, I know...

18

Oh for anyone that didn't ready the Lady Obama thread from last night, I suggest you go back and take a looksee.

Pay careful attention to 'Average Joe's' insightful commentary.

Oh and you're welcome.

ps....keep your drinks away from your keyboard

 

Which thread was that?

19 All of the scenarios talking about this November fail to mention one significant factor: massive cheating on the part of Democrats and their supporters (especially those in the media).

It WILL be a factor.

20 Can we give it back to them?

I'm serious--say we win the Senate, somehow convince a couple Senator "out of a gracious gesture of bipartisanship" to give up their seats for the Dems.

We will be able to do nothing with the Senate that we can't do with the House (maybe for Supreme Court nominations, but even there one or two won't make a difference when we can filibuster with over 40).  We will however be a punching bag for everybody in the media and the administration and I don't trust our leaders to be able to stand up to them even if they were inclined to so.

21 >>> The MSM is engaging in no small amount of expectations jiu-jitsu at the moment. Get out there, morons. This thing ain't over. I have to tell you I can give a shit if we fall short and say "only" capture +8 Senate seats and "only" +45 House seats or whatever. I think you are putting way too much stock into the spin. I mean, even if "only" this happens, we will have beaten the shit out of them and left them laying in the ally in a pool of tears and blood. At that point, their spin will be, basically, "But you only loosened my teeth! None were actually knocked out!" Well... *okay.* If that's how you want to sell it. That said, yes, we still have to make this happen, not just *wishcast* for it to happen. We can't get complacent. Now is the time to press harder, not just wait for good fortune to happen. But on the specific point of managing the post-election spin? I think this matters so terribly little it is really beneath mention.

22 Yippee ki yay, motherfucker.

23 "I'm fired up!  Ready to go!"

24 not sure if this is like 1994.... it very well might be more like 1894, hell even dems I know who are still registered dems are livid (and this was not the case in 1994)

25

Which thread was that?

The one below last night's ONT.

26 Which thread was that?

#20  White House Set to Deploy October Surprise: Michelle Obama

27 We can take both houses!

I believe we will. 

28 Coins? Who cares about coins?

What about when Grizzlies are chasing jackasses with their tails between their legs?

29 I meant, I can give a shit if we crush them but don't CRUSH-crush them (as Whoopie would say) and so the MFM/DNC line is that we "failed" for not succeeding *enough.* Yes, it would bother me that we only got net eight and net 45. I would be disappointed. But I would only be disappointed at the results; the inevitable, predictable, stupid spin would mean almost nothing to me.

30 House yes, Senate I just don't think is likely.

31 for a good laugh, HillBuzz has a great piece on the October surprise of Me-chelle Antoinette.

32 Posted by: Average Joe at September 06, 2010 01:31 PM (liBQN)

See, it was too subtle last night. I'm not a Brit; I can't catch dry humor off the bat.

33 Am I being punked in comment 18?

34 Attack rapidly, ruthlessly, viciously, without rest, however tired and hungry you may be, the enemy will be more tired, more hungry. Keep punching.

35

for the WI race, please donate to Ron Johnson if you can, he is tied with Russ Feingold.  And while Mr. Waffles is in WI today/tommorow, Fiengold is hiding from him.

Ron Johnson -- a good man, will be a great senator from WI. please donate to him if you can.

36 35 Am I being punked in comment 18?

It's the same Average Joe from the Michelle Obama thread last night.  Snarky as hell, this one is.

37 Am I being punked in comment 18?

The hash says it all: liBQN

38
Yeah, at this point the spin & propaganda & revisionist history is so absurd, it's beyond parody. So there's no sense in worrying about.

^{Unfortunately, some weakling Republicans will be swayed by it, so they're the only ones we'll have to worry about.}

39 >>>House yes, Senate I just don't think is likely. Depends on what you mean by "likely." Cook himself addresses this. It used to be that a GOP Senate takeover was a longshot. Now it's merely a underdog. There was a 17 point spread, to use a football analogy; now it's a 3 point spread. It's "unlikely" in the sense it is now a 4 out of 10 underdog. Or maybe 45%. So, yes, the Demcorats are favored, 60-40 or 55 to 45 to retain (bare) control. But this is a different sort of "unlikely" for the sort of "unlikely" we often mean.

40
CO is a toss-up leans D. The dems are running full on ads, and the R's are nearly nonexsistant.
Unless this changes, we must have confidence that the voters won't buy the dems garbage and lies.  I'm not that confident in the CO voter.  Denver and Boulder are filled with emotional democrats.
Betsy Markey (D-sellout) should be easy to beat. 
Where are her opponent's ads?  nowhere.

Michael Bennet should be really easy to beat.  Bennet is running ads claiming that he's a thrifty deficit hawk, a business man, and a tax cutter.  It's a joke, but  do not under-estimate the stupidity of the Colorado voter.  They swoon when fed bullshit.

41

stupid spin would mean almost nothing to me.

Well I agree w/that to a degree. But this needs to be about Pelosi, Reid, and Obama. They will just cast Pelosi as the problem and Obama as a by standard to her ineptitude. His policies aside, he's still personally popular and once again they'll go into full dick sucking mode two years out to make sure he gets re-elected.

42
the MADDOW MULTIPLIER?

I dunno, sounds like a lot of scissoring action.

43

sorry for my ignorance, but is Charlie Cook considered a respected pollestor? I thought he leaned left?   is that true?  thanks.

44 As long as the GOP can get to 40-45 committed, tough conservatives who are ready to filibuster until hell freezes over, I will be happy. Especially since there are a boatload of Democrats up for reelection to the Senate in 2012.

45 18
The Maddow Multiplier.   lol.

Smartness and affiliated with an academic Institute.   OK then.  Reason and logic.  Uh, yeah. sure.

46 5 Michelle Obama is ready to launch!  We're not going any where you stupid wingers!

Posted by: Teh DNC at September 06, 2010 01:22 PM (8GYOu)

So how many titans do you actually have strapped to that ass to get it off the ground?

47 Ace-
Yes, Average Joe is just having fun.  

I mean, even if "only" this happens, we will have beaten the shit out of them and left them laying in the ally in a pool of tears and blood. At that point, their spin will be, basically, "But you only loosened my teeth! None were actually knocked out!"

Tis only a flesh wound.  Have at you!

48
I watched CNN earlier and they did a report on how it's "local politics" that are going to cause "some" house districts to go "Republican" this year. Also "anti-incumbent fever against both parties".

Then they showed a Democrat campaign spokesperson talking about how we all "want government out of our lives". With the word "Democrat" in big letters on the screen in front of her.

49 Two of the factors that contribute to all the "toss-ups" breaking the same way are synchronicity and social validation. Synchronicity is the tendency of lots of people under the same cultural influences to come to the same conclusion at the same time. The TEA Parties erupted all at once because so many people had been thinking along those lines independently. Now lots of voters are all coming to the same conclusion about the need to change Congress and be done with the Dems. Social validation is the effect of being "given permission" to do something when you see others doing it. "All the cool kids are doing it" is a powerful force to lower inhibitions against unfamiliar behavior. It's very likely that Obama picked up a lot of votes in 2008 when people who would otherwise have shunned him decided to vote for him because their friends and neighbors and favorite pundits said it was the cool thing to do. And this year, people who haven't voted Republican in years, or ever, are hearing people around them say it's the cool thing to do. That's how cascading behavior starts. (Incidentally, a study of jetliner crashes noted that they often clustered in time. The researchers looked for common factors like type of equipment, weather or anything else that would offer a physical explanation. They reluctantly came to the conclusion that some pilots who might have had latent suicidal thoughts saw an accidental crash of some other jetliner as a form of social validation for deliberately crashing their own planes.)

50 Am I the only one who knows the definition of 'factoid'?

51 >>>sorry for my ignorance, but is Charlie Cook considered a respected pollestor? I thought he leaned left? is that true? thanks. yes he's a top pollster and yes he's also a Democrat-leaning one. But he is considered a pretty impartial analysist (little "wishcasting") so his Democrat bias is usually considered trivial or nonexistent, as regards his actual prognostication. He's like a Democrat Michael Barone. Barone obviously tilts conservative but Michael Barone ain't gonna cheerlead and wishcast. If the polls say the GOP is in trouble, Barone says so.

52 But this is a different sort of "unlikely" for the sort of "unlikely" we often mean.

Posted by: ace at September 06, 2010 01:39 PM (QbA6l)

LOL, I guess its just "unlikely" and not "unlikely-unlikely". 

I just don't see taking 10 of 12 Dem seats while keeping all of ours. Keeping all of our is probably a good bet but 10/12 is not.

I'm not trying to be an eeyore here but I is not a good idea to start celebrating all this now.

53

Am I being punked in comment 18?

Here, yes, I believe so. But you really should have stuck around last night.

Cliff Note's version - - Lady Obama is the true Mama Grizzly and America not only wants to snuggle in her kick ass biceps but they will come out in droves to support her and her husband. Oh and the cause and effect? -- Dems retain both the House and Senate.

*giggle*

54 >>>I just don't see taking 10 of 12 Dem seats while keeping all of ours. Keeping all of our is probably a good bet but 10/12 is not. As the factoid notes, in wave elections, the party with the wave tends to go 8 for 9 among the top 9 most competitive races. (That's the 89% figure.) I don't see 10 for 12 as being much different.

55 my lib/dem friends are very conflicted these days.  the vacillate between being angry with BO and then saying "we don't have to worry, we are going to win it all and the republicans will be shocked to their shoes".   When they say that and you confronting them with facts they say they just know they are going to win....

honestly they are making me uneasy

56 okay, I *thought* I was being punked. Thanks.

57 ace, heed lacey's advice.

58
incidentally, I was watching a couple of Mark Russell's election specials on yootoob, yesterday, from '80 & '84.

Pretty interesting to hear the same shit we're hearing now.

59 I would like to see 300 Republicans in the House fighting for freedom and against tyranny.  Spartans!

Hoo!

60 #50  So how many titans do you actually have strapped to that ass to get it off the ground?

Hey, don't look at me.  I have enough on my shoulders trying to keep the Earth in place.

61 The Maddow multiplier? That is good.

62   #50  So how many titans do you actually have strapped to that ass to get it off the ground?

I think they outsourced the launch to the Russians.

63 Who is Charlie Cook?

64 Sigh. Yes, I fully understand that Maddow and MSNBC have a left-of-center reputation. I am not claiming that the commentators there will be generally persuasive to highly conservative voters. However, there was this Irish fellow, a Mr. Lawrence O'Donnell, who I imagine would have a certain sway with values-oriented Catholic viewers. Those are the toss-up votes that the Deomcrats may capture.

65 The "Maddow Multiplier" is a divisor.

66 Quick pitch:  On Election eve in 1994, Gallup had the Generic ballot at 46-46.

67 RCP has the projected final Senate break-down as 51D, 49R.  Given RCP's biases, this is pretty good.  Maybe tipping the Senate can be pulled off.

Let's hope the GOP doesn't muck it up

68 Am I the only one who knows the definition of 'factoid'?

Posted by: braininahat at September 06, 2010 01:44 PM (q1suJ)

Here's a factoid: Yes, you are.

Looks like a fact, sounds like a fact, but it's not a fact.

69

I really think they are so severely miscalculating ME-chelle Antoinette's impact. It would be one thing if its neutral, but she will cause more people opposing the candidate she endorsing to come out to the polls.

The Spain trip, the "America is a mean country" ,"finally proud to be American as an adult" are very fresh in people's mind. And as soon as she puts herself in the limelight, all that will be become fresh in people's minds.

70 It's not that it's too subtle, it's that it comes across as vapidly uncomprehending.

Kind of like that 60-year-old community college student who argues in science class that it's impossible to travel in space because there's no air to push against.

71 okay, now it's funny. Average Joe, do you think Chris Matthews will bring Catholic blue-collar voters to the Democrats?

72

not sure why this is a "shocker"

http://tinyurl.com/26mfwej

"shocker-democratic-donors-from-2008-going-gop-in-2010"

73 Michelle Obama is ready to launch!  We're not going any where you stupid wingers!

Posted by: Teh DNC at September 06, 2010 01:22 PM (8GYOu)

So how many titans do you actually have strapped to that ass to get it off the ground?

Posted by: Unclefacts, AoSHQ Pro Debate Team, Bacon Raconteur at September 06, 2010 01:42 PM (eCAn3)

They will launch her in the same starship she used to get here in the first place.

74 78not sure why this is a "shocker"

Because they needed a semi-synonym for "unexpectedly". 

75
Everyone knows what a factoid is.

A factoid is a small fact...

in your rectum.

76 When they say that and you confronting them with facts they say they just know they are going to win....

honestly they are making me uneasy

Posted by: curious at September 06, 2010 01:46 PM (p302b)

curious, I have to ask.    Do you have any political convictions/beliefs of your own?   Are you so easily swayed by your friends?    The reason I ask is that I often see you telling us what your lib/dem friends say and then actually admitting that it makes you uneasy or it makes you worry.   Why?

 

77

Actually I went back and re-read that thread.

Ave Joe was in shenanigans mode. I missed the part where he said he was sitting out this election.

78 Sure, you picked up 65 seats in the House, but you couldn't take the Senate, wingers. Suck it!

As long as it isn't San Fran Nan writing all the checks for Barry to sign. It doesn't matter what the Senate does in terms of taking back our country, especially if the House starts impeaching a few over-reaching judges (which will keep the Senate quite busy). If it requires any public money, the House has to write the bill.

And I actually think it is going to be a 50R/48D/2I, with both Independents (one an avowed Socialist, the other was the '04 VP candidate) working with the Dems to make it an effective 50/50 split, and Sheriff Joe having to cast tiebreaker after tiebreaker.

And every single one of those votes will pound another nail into the coffin of Obama's re-elect chances.

A narrow majority like that in the Senate also doesn't matter when Harry Reid loses his job anyway, and his successor is suddenly faced with having to suck it up and deal with an unpleasant reality of losing any one of his 48 in the wake of a clear reprimand by the national electorate. And if that happens, there goes the whole ball of wax (since a demand for a new Majority Leader can be invoked at any time).

So we don't win 51? Big deal. 50 is just as good and a hell of a lot more powerful in the current political climate, since it still leaves the Dems nominally in charge (and therefore responsible), but prevents anything horrendous from happening. Barry then has to worry about his next two years, and let's be frank, our economy did its best with Republicans running Congress and a Democrat in the White House.

Defund the programs, and send repeal after repeal through as amendments to everything (just as they try these pork barrel additions through as amendments on transportation or Farm bills). Let him veto himself silly, because then we can say "why does Obama hate puppies and school lunches?".

Use their tactics against them.

79 Mrs. has taken a shine to the show Hoarders on Discovery.  We're watching the fourth one-hour episode in a row.  This is the first time a television show has given me hives.

80 Let's not start sucking each other's dicks quite yet, gentlemen.

81 Just as long as we get our quota of Senate RINOs, we're good.

82 dick cheese, you are being banned. Enough of you fucking incorrigible racist assholes. Goodbye.

83 Am I the only one who knows the definition of 'factoid'?

Since it's a made up word, we can have it mean anything we want.

84 And I actually think it is going to be a 50R/48D/2I, with both Independents (one an avowed Socialist, the other was the '04 VP candidate) working with the Dems to make it an effective 50/50 split, and Sheriff Joe having to cast tiebreaker after tiebreaker.


I like the way you think.  Now that would be ideal.

On the chance Obama wins in 2012, this also gives Biden a record in 2016 of having supported each aspect that he votes on.

85

Actually I went back and re-read that thread.

Ave Joe was in shenanigans mode. I missed the part where he said he was sitting out this election.

 

I just finished it--over 500 comments!  Thanks for putting the knowledge to me, Lacey.  It was worth the read.

86

It may be hard to do, but we need the Senate.   What if someone on the SC retires next year or in '12, or God forbid, becomes ill and can't sit on the court.   That, frankly, scares the bejeebus out of me.   We can't, cannot, afford to have a left/far left majority on the court.   

 

87 I led a factoid-finding mission for TLC up the Ganji River back in ought-four

88
All words are made up words.

89 The "Average Joe" posts in the Michelle thread got better and better.  Worth checking out if you missed it.

90 91 WTF?

Posted by: dick cheese at September 06, 2010 02:04 PM (S5YRY)

classic

91

Dick cheese is right (wait, what??)

She is bait. They'll never let her go off script like she did in the primaries.

And for the life of me, I have never been able to fathom her popularity. I never knew what hatred for another person was until she came around. Really, it's unhealthy. A woman that had every opportunity and  she takes a shit on this country. I have absolutely *no use* for people like her. Honestly, there are times, naive as it is, that I can't even fault Obama. He grew up in family dysfunction surrounded by hippy Marxists. Did he even have a choice to be any other way? But her, she grew up in a seemingly normal family. Her brother, the basketball coach, he seems like an overall good guy. Same could be said for her parents. So what the hell happened to her? She's evil-- straight up undeniable evil walking among us.

 

92

I hate to say this but I cannot even listen or stand to watch Mr. Waffles on TV anymore. I cannot stand it.  My wife yells if she even hears his voice. She runs to find the remote if she even sees him on TV.

I never remember being this pissed at Bush, even when we were suffering from BDS.

Bush for all his faults , I never felt Bush loathed America or Americans, and I respected that he was at least sincere and did in his gut loved America and didn't look down on Americans and truely respected the Military.

I hate to say it, but I cannot stand to listen or watch Mr.Waffles on TV. (I only can stand to read the transcripts of speeches)

93 lacey, Average Joe wasn't the only chain yanking sock, the denny crane sock (Ed A.?) didn't pull any punches either.

94 Yeah, what did dick cheese say that was offensive? And, no, i'm not being deliberately obtuse.

95 The MFM doesn't need a conservative or republican to hurl a racial epithet at Moochelle, all they need is some liberal to claim they did.

96 50 is just as good and a hell of a lot more powerful in the current political climate, since it still leaves the Dems nominally in charge

I don't agree with you.  We don't want the Dems in charge so that we can further discredit them-they are already thoroughly discredited.  We want to be in charge so that we can fix things and undeniably demonstrate that the GOP learned its lesson about being Dem-lites, and that our re-embraced conservatism is the way to go. 

97 I don't think the F word is a made-up word.  I think it always existed in nature, and was merely discovered by Man

98 The Senate is very much in play.  I know I'm always going on, and on about the polls here in WA State for the Murray/Rossi race, but if we pull the rug out from underneath Osama Mama Murray we can take the Senate.

And, I'm especially pleased to see how many people that voted for Didier quickly came to their senses and said, "Eff of, you dick cheese."

99 well, have a good afternoon everyone. Gotta go to work.

100 ban cancelled; I misread and misunderstood. I wrote this to dick cheese: [Banned. I am leaving the post up. This is the sort of asshole who cannot help but make a monkey reference in every comment about a black woman (that's what a macaque is, same as the "macaca" that Got george allen into trouble), but who will then piously swear on a stack of Bibles (lying to the All Mighty, of course) that he doesn't harbor a drop of racial animus or old-school racism at all, none at all. He just likes constantly dropping monkey references; that's all. Understandable, right? No, not understandable. Happy trails, Racist.] I understand now that he was trying to expressly reference the macaca moment. So no ban, sorry I said you were racist. However, please stop with the macaca, macaque, Wookiee, etc. stuff. It is getting a little too thick, and people seem to enjoy saying it a little too much.

101 I'm not a big fan of "dick cheese" (believe it's a hard cheese), but Ace, I think you missed his point.

102

We want to be in charge so that we can fix things and undeniably demonstrate that the GOP learned its lesson about being Dem-lites, and that our re-embraced conservatism is the way to go. 

There's some grade-A wishcasting. Call me an Eyeore if you want, but you know what the GOP will do with 51?  Pass Obama's legislative agenda 55-45 or some reasonable facsimile thereof.

103 Who is Charlie Cook?

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at September 06, 2010 01:52 PM (9cflz)

That's what I want to know!

104 Moi, I misread the intent behind saying "macaque!"

105 The one thing that really pisses me off in this election cycle in light of the prognostication of a conservative wave, is the complete and total lack of any viable challenge to the two assholes we have in the senate seats in NY.

Gillibrand? Seriously?

106 See 110 re ban. Not banned. I misread. But... honestly? Like, a little less?

107 l aceyunderalls : Yeah, I get sick of this attitude that unless you have a cook, a butler, and a chauffeur, you're fucking poor or something in this country. She was raised in a middle class two parent home that made sure she was clothed, fed, got her shots, and got a damn fine education. She should try being grateful for once in her life.

108 ban cancelled; I misread and misunderstood.

Posted by: ace at September 06, 2010 02:09 PM (QbA6l)

Phew!  you were really scary there, for a moment.

109
...and people seem to enjoy saying it a little too much.

oooh, hello Catholic guilt!

110 I led a factoid-finding mission for TLC up the Ganji River back in ought-four

Posted by: Truman North at September 06, 2010 02:05 PM (+gfwN)

Do you still have the hat?

111 Never mind.

If wookie is out, can we use the term "Fat Yoda"?

112 Elections?  For the h-house.. and snate?  Sounds like one best left for the cables.

113 Macabre. So there. I have said it.

114 I don't particularly like the implication that putting Michelle Obama out there is somehow *bait* for racist remarks -- as if it's *understandable* that if she speaks in public someone will lose control and call her something vile -- but whatever. Apparently it's "bait." But that is not ban-worthy. Just... suggesting that anti-black racism is sort of the fault of a black woman for speaking in public.

115 it's just a very odd suggestion.

116 We want to be in charge so that we can fix things and undeniably demonstrate that the GOP learned its lesson about being Dem-lites, and that our re-embraced conservatism is the way to go.

See, though, we can't fix things.  This is why I don't want the Senate yet.  We can fix things after 2012.  Until then, we can do nothing, but that's a fact that Obama and the media (and, for that matter, the public) aren't going to spend much time on.  We'll be able to change nothing.  Meanwhile, we'll get blamed for not fixing the economy, healthcare, repealing the bills we don't like, and not working with Obama.

117 Jeff B's Official GOP-Inside-The-Beltway-Hack Labor Day Prediction Post:

SENATE:

GOP holds all of its own seats (MO, FL, OH,

NV: Reid wins. D hold.
PA: Toomey wins, and it's a Santorum-2006-style bloodbath.  56-59% of the vote. R pickup.
ND: Hoeven wins. R pickup.
CO: Buck wins. R pickup.
NH: Ayotte wins. R pickup.
WA: Rossi wins. R pickup.
IL: Kirk wins, and in the end the margin will be larger than the polls currently seem.  It'll break late in a huge swath the way Wayne Allard's 2002 race in CO did.  R pickup.
WI: Johnson wins. A squeaker. R pickup.
CA: Boxer wins. D hold.
CT: Blumenthal wins.  D hold.  A bridge too far.
DE: Castle wins. R pickup.
WV: Raese wins a stunner. My wild card. R pickup.  I've seen the ads Raese is running in WV media markets, and my gut just tells me they're really effective.  We need to be paying more attention to this race.

That gets me to +9 for a 50-50 tie.  That's when we send John McCain and Lindsay Graham to have a nice sit down with retiring Senator Joe Lieberman...

118

not sure why this is a "shocker"

http://tinyurl.com/26mfwej

"shocker-democratic-donors-from-2008-going-gop-in-2010"

Posted by: johnc_recent_EX-dem at September 06, 2010 01:57 PM (ACkhT)

The shocker is that someone whose surname is Podesta would be directing funds to the NRSC.

119

Mrs. is going ape-poopies.  My parents have our kids.  They're sailing.  School is starting tomorrow.  She keeps complaining they're so late... and I keep offering to call and see what the plan is... and she keeps scolding me for wanting to call and...

it's like a microcosm of my marriage

See you retards tomorrow I guess

120
If wookie is out, can we use the term "Fat Yoda"?

Posted by: Dr. Spank at September 06, 2010 02:12 PM (Y81Xa)

Yeah.  What about "whoopi cushion", 'cause that's pretty much what the Dems have pulled on the country.

121 I don't agree with you.  We don't want the Dems in charge so that we can further discredit them-they are already thoroughly discredited.  We want to be in charge so that we can fix things and undeniably demonstrate that the GOP learned its lesson about being Dem-lites, and that our re-embraced conservatism is the way to go.

That can still be done with a solid plurality, because it only takes one Democrat among the 48 to start feeling that sudden chill from an already unhappy electorate to win any vote coming up, but still leaves the Dems looking either very bad, or clearly working with the Republicans to fix things (since we would own the House anyway).

I wouldn't be as happy as I would be if we do win 51+, but I'm saying getting a solid 50 is an acceptable Plan B, and why it wouldn't be as bad as people would be saying ("the fact that the Republicans didn't take the Senate outright is a stunning slap in the face to those racist teabaggers, isn't it, Janeane?" "It sure is, Chris!").

122
There's no way Reid wins.

123 ITS NOT ABOUT WEIGHING ODDS YOU MORONS! (in a playful sense, morons). Everyone is looking at the GOP has to win 16 out of 18. looks hard. BUT ITS NOT THAT STARK. Many of those seats are GOP-held the MFM and some of you eeyores still laughably called tossups. You know, tossups like Ohio where Portman has an 8-10pt lead. NAILBITERS like Missouri where Blunt has been stomping his opponent into the mantle of the earth since April. THERE ARE 12 DEM SEATS UP. 12. NOT 18, 12. Of them, 5 are INCREDIBLY LIKELY to flip GOP outright. The rest you can argue for and against, but when we are focusing on getting another 5 out of 7, you start looking toolish still pulling out 16 out of 18.

124 Crap, I listed Ayotte's race as an R pickup when it should've gone in the hold category.  That gets me down to a 51-49 Dem majority in the Senate.

My problem with seeing the Republicans take the Senate is that simply don't think Sharron Angle can win in NV (or deserves to, on an operating level - she just sucks at this game).  I hope to God she pulls it out, but she really hasn't impressed in the slightest.  Turnout will be what saves her if it happens.

125 #128 you forgot Indiana. that makes your pickup prediction +10. We win the senate.

126
Remember: It doesn't matter what this sign says, you'll say it's racist, anyway.

Michelle O is indeed bait. Whatever anyone says about her campaigning will be deemed racist.

127

125 I don't particularly like the implication that putting Michelle Obama out there is somehow *bait* for racist remarks

Remember what kind of people run the Democrat party- 

1)  they think solely in terms of collectivist groups, and can't believe other people don't think that way. 

2)  they believe the only reason that anyone opposes their ideas is ginorance or racism

3)  they know she's a polarizing figure to real people out here.

I can't imagine any other reason to dangle her out there except to draw fire, which will either

1) at the very least, take Republicans off-topic and

2) if they're lucky, destroy someone's career by making them look like racists Democrats

128 @111
There's some grade-A wishcasting. Call me an Eyeore if you want, but you know what the GOP will do with 51?  Pass Obama's legislative agenda 55-45 or some reasonable facsimile thereof.

No wishcasting about it.  I don't have a high regard for the intelligence of most politicians, but we are seeing Darwinism at work this cycle.  Many of those who were too stupid to see how the political ground was shifting will be largely eliminated unless they hail from an asylum like SF.   The survivors will know that they can't pull the SOS anymore; that things have fundamentally changed.  If not, then we'll have '12 to finish the job.

As I said in an earlier post, it isn't just the numbers in the House or Senate that matter.  Those who are there now will alter their behavior because they know if they don't, they'll be joining the ash heap.  The vote this cycle is merely ratifying what all but the doomed know. 

129

I don't particularly like the implication that putting Michelle Obama out there is somehow *bait* for racist remarks

The congressional black caucus walked around with about 12 video cameras on Obamacare vote day trying to find their inflamatory money quote so to speak.And when they couldn't find it, they just made it up and ran with it for about 3 weeks. Do you honestly think they are above using her in this way?

130 I don't particularly like the implication that putting Michelle Obama out there is somehow *bait* for racist remarks -- as if it's *understandable* that if she speaks in public someone will lose control and call her something vile -- but whatever.

Apparently it's "bait."

Posted by: ace at September 06, 2010 02:13 PM (QbA6l)

I seem to recall all of 2007 and 2008 being told by the MFM that it was *understandable* and *inevitable* and *expected* that putting out a candidate who was Black and whose middle name was Hussein would attract vile racist slurs from rank-and-file Republicans.  Hell, the candidate himself informed me that I only distrusted him because of his "funny" middle name.

Yes, indeed, the Leftards running the White House political operation believe in their heart of hearts that putting Michelle on the campaign trail will force all us raaaaaaacists to bring our latent ugliness right up to the surface.

131 Oh and jeff you forgot Arkansas... see this is what I am talking about morons! You guys keep forgeting the EASY 5 we are all but certain to get- AR,DE,IN,PA,ND. So picking 5 of the remaining 7- CO,IL,NV,WA,WI,CT,CA (and not even factoring in WV) isn't the everest climb some of you make it.

132 That Harris woman on fox is just pretty darn hot since you brought it up.

133 You have to be a member to get into Charlie Cook's site, but you can see the map and leanings of all of the races. Reid may win, but it's going to be very close. He comes off as a whiner and complainer, yet he's the Senate leader...

134 As far a Meanchelle being bait, I could not agree more.  If anyone is dumb enough to attack her, the sympathy for her will skyrocket.  As a general rule of thumb (I denounce myself) the MFM has setup the rules where attacks against dem first females (I will not use the word lady) are off limits.  The hypocrisy is amazing when you think about it.  Anyone remember the Ms. Cleo BS with Nancy?

135 #142  Yes, indeed, the Leftards running the White House political operation believe in their heart of hearts that putting Michelle on the campaign trail will force all us raaaaaaacists to bring our latent ugliness right up to the surface.

And when that doesn't happen, Rahm and Co will just make up allegations of racism towards Michelle. 

136 Charlie Cook Who?

137

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 06, 2010 02:17 PM (NjYDy)

I don't see Sharron Angle winning either. I was rooting for Sue Lowden or Danny T.  I've donated to Angle, but I don't see her winning.

Sue Lowden or Danny T would have been a much much stronger candidate. Very sad. I wish they had been nominated.

138 CAC -

Good catch.  Coats is going to walk away with it in Indiana.  When I get to my state-level predictions, I'll talk about what effect that race is having on some others downballot. 

So that makes my best-case scenario 50-50.  If Fiorina pulls it out and Angle somehow miraculously un-beclowns herself, the insane best case is 52-48 GOP (more likely 51-49 GOP, given that even on the best of nights at least one of WV, CA, or NV is not going to go the Republicans' way.)  Either way, I will be very interested to see what Joe Lieberman does then.  Unlike Mike Castle, Lieberman HAS made noises about joining the GOP (or caucusing with them), saying that he could see himself as a "moderate Republican" in the Northeastern tradition.  That says to me that he's a.) open to it, should the opportunity arise; b.) not running for reelection in 2012.  He's going to retire, and probably end up working in a victorious GOP administration (ambassador to Israel, maybe even SecDef).

139 Charlie Cook is that guy on PBS?

140 and I keep offering to call and see what the plan is... and she keeps scolding me for wanting to call and...

Posted by: Truman de la Norte at September 06, 2010 02:14 PM (+gfwN)

Your mistake was in asking her permission to call.  I know you thought you were asking for input, not permission, but you must know by now that's not how it works.  Just make the call.

141 Jeff- you missed 2 of them, which means your best case is 51-49, a GOP majority. (AR,IN)

142

Michelle Obama gets a free pass no matter what she says. If anyone is dumb enough to attack her publically then they are just that, dumb.

She would not only get smypathy from the press but from every independent and democrat in the country. She gets a freeby just live with it.

143 I'm not in agreement with the 'bait' theory. The dems will play the race card anyway, although the general public sees through this. If anything it could be used to gin up the base only, which is important for off year elections. The dems are jumping the shark.

144 Holy crap, I forgot AK too.

Jesus Christ, maybe we are gonna retake the Senate.  Well, Angle still sucks.

145 Mrs. has taken a shine to the show Hoarders on Discovery.  We're watching the fourth one-hour episode in a row.  This is the first time a television show has given me hives.

Posted by: Truman North at September 06, 2010 02:00 PM (+gfwN)

My wife has taken the show to heart and started getting rid of some of the stuff in our garage and closets.  She fears she has the hoarding gene.

146 "I don't have a high regard for the intelligence of most politicians..." I will never understand how any of them could argue with a straight face that by raising taxes and the cost of premiums, they were saving Americans money on healthcare.

147 Angle doesn't really suck and she's gotten better. She should be a very firm vote, so there's that. She is currently tied and if you're tied in a purple state you're 4 points ahead.

148 Weren't we reading about a "preference cascade" here recently? Why yes, yes we were! Such a phenomenon should apply here, I'd think.

149 Ace, I only began subscribing to cable recently and thus am not familiar with the Chris person. She's not the same as the Christine I have seen on Meet the Press, is she? Another factor you may be underestimating is the American regard for the military that Glenn Beck tapped into. As I recall, Mr. O'Donnell interviewed on of our soldiers, Corporal or possibly Lieutenant Moulitsas, who is now apparently engaged in fundraising for some Democrats. He was not in uniforn that night but I was able to Google pictures of him in full regalia. He also appears to be Internet savvy with his own blog. So although people normally rate Republicans strong on defense, gentlemen like Moulitsas may change that persception. Perhaps his appeal is strongest with the so-called blue dog Democrats but as a Republican who has a neighbor who tells me that a number of his co-workers have friends in the armed forces, I can tell you I was not unmoved by his patriotism.

150 #157 DUH! lol And if the Dems are stupid enough to blow money in Missouri, North Carolina, and Alaska, thats $$ less for protecting Boxer,Reid,Murray, Bennett, Feingold. They are going to start cutting their losses too in races like Illinois when Mark Kirk pulls a Pete Wilson and finally starts unloading his millions on Ali G. Why waste on a race you have no traction in?

151 I also don't buy the idea that a GOP-majority senate gets us responsibility, but a 49-seat minority doesn't.  The Dems and the MFM will blame it all on us no matter what, so why worry about it?  20 years ago it might have mattered, but they are so completely discredited now that I don't think they really affect things much anymore-at least not when there is so little doubt about the pitiful results of the last 2 years. 

152 Angle doesn't really suck and she's gotten better. She should be a very firm vote, so there's that.

She is currently tied and if you're tied in a purple state you're 4 points ahead.

Posted by: ace at September 06, 2010 02:27 PM (QbA6l)

She just got sued by righthaven, I am not sure if that helps or hurts her. They are wanting to take possession of her web site.

153 Jesus Christ, maybe we are gonna retake the Senate.  Well, Angle still sucks.

Posted by: Jeff B. at September 06, 2010 02:25 PM (NjYDy)

Here's the list of ALL the Senate races from RealClearPolitics.  Why don't you re-do your predictions?

California      Boxer (D) +4.0
Colorado     Buck (R) +2.5
Florida     Rubio (R) +2.4
Illinois     Kirk (R) +1.0
Nevada     Reid (D) +2.5
Washington     Rossi (R) +2.3
Wisconsin     Feingold (D) +1.0
Kentucky     Paul (R) +8.8
Missouri     Blunt (R) +6.7
New Hampshire     Ayotte (R) +8.0
North Carolina     Burr (R) +7.7
Ohio     Portman (R) +8.3
Pennsylvania     Toomey (R) +8.5
Delaware     Leans GOP
Connecticut     Blumenthal (D) +8.5
Iowa     Grassley (R) +18.0
Louisiana     Vitter (R) +14.3
Alaska     Likely GOP
Indiana     Likely GOP
New York     Gillibrand (D) +21.3
Oregon     Likely Dem
West Virginia     Likely Dem
Arizona     McCain (R) +20.0
Arkansas     Boozman (R) +28.2
Alabama     Safe GOP
Georgia     Safe GOP
Hawaii     Safe Dem
Idaho     Safe GOP
Kansas     Safe GOP
Maryland     Safe Dem
New York2     Safe Dem
North Dakota     Safe GOP
Oklahoma     Safe GOP
South Carolina     Safe GOP
South Dakota     Safe GOP
Utah     Safe GOP
Vermont     Safe Dem

154 I'm not saying that its a racist bait thing.  It's a sympathy bait thing.

The GOP should immediately release a talking point for Meanchelle.
If anyone ever asks a question about her, the proper response should be something along the lines of; "I'm sorry, I can't keep up with everything she says while on vacation".

155 I also don't buy the idea that a GOP-majority senate gets us responsibility, but a 49-seat minority doesn't.  The Dems and the MFM will blame it all on us no matter what, so why worry about it?

Posted by: pep at September 06, 2010 02:28 PM (0K3p3)

They're blaming everything on Republicans, now, anyway.  They've been blaming republicans for everything since... oh... 2006.

156

Me-chelle Antoinette is attacked, but not in public, if she is in public, yes, indeed it will create a greater symapthy for her.

Let her have her uber-posh Spain trips, keep dissing America, and independents will  [and have seen]  see that and make up their minds accordingly. Its one thing for Hannity etc to bring attention to it, that's fine, but if they attack her on a personal level, it will create the opposite effect and create sympathy for her.

the way she dresses, etc, no commentary is needed, people know, the MSM lies for her, people have figured that out.  No point in attacking her in a personal level, the effect will be opposite. Bringing attention to it is fine, but not attacking for it.

157 "My wife has taken the show to heart and started getting rid of some of the stuff in our garage and closets. She fears she has the hoarding gene. Posted by: stuiec " Are there any dead pets stored in your freezer? If not, she'll be okay. When you are younger and move around more, it naturally gets rid of all the crap. I read that people who have a hard time getting rid of stuff, should take photos of it as keepsakes because a lot of hoarding and clutter has to do with emotional attachment.

158 Okay, recalculating conservatively then, my honest lowball estimate in the Senate is:

Indiana +1
Colorado +1
Washington +1
Wisconsin + 1
Delaware +1
Illinois +1
Arkansas +1
Pennsylvania +1
North Dakota +1

That brings you to a 50-50 tie.  If Raese actually does pull it out (which is kind of crazy, but I think it could happen, unlike O'Donnell winning in DE) then 51-49. Fiorina 52-48. Angle 53-47. McMahon 54-46. 

I listed those in the order I think they're likely to happen, btw.  So the absolutely, insane, run-the-plausible-table best case is 54-46 GOP.  Which isn't going to happen.  I really do think 50-50 is quite possible, however (in which case we need Lieberman), and 48 seats are almost guaranteed.

159 I think Angle will take it in NV, but it will be one of those down to the wire nail biters with only a few thousand votes separating them.

It will start bad for her as Las Vegas returns will come in first but as the other come in she will catch up and pass. What it will boil down to since it will be close with her ahead by a small fraction will be whether or not the Dems can pull off their typical steal.

160 Serious, I'm just sitting back and waiting for the Dem ad to get their base energized that says, with a straight face:  Remember '94.  Don't let that happen, again.  Look where it got us.

161 If anyone ever asks a question about her, the proper response should be something along the lines of; "I'm sorry, I can't keep up with everything she says while on vacation".

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at September 06, 2010 02:29 PM (9QDNr)

Oh, yeah, that's probably better than what I would have suggested: "Yes, but what I really want to know is, what did she think about the paella and the jamon?"

162

Michelle's foray into the political campaign has some stipulations.   She says she will only do it if she can use it to promote her agenda...obesity, fat kids & the military.   She plans to step up her 'whatever it is' she does for the military. Plus, she only works 3 days a week.   That was what she decided when they took office.    She put her foot down.   3 days/wk was all she could handle.    There were just too many things she had going on, and 3 days is all she can give back, you know.

Sorry, people just don't like her, and don't really trust her any more than the prez.    She may be able to gotv for some within the base, but it will be nothing like what they will need.

 

163 Here are my predictions- Virtually in the bag- DE,ND,AR,IN,PA +5 GOP holds all existing seats, which polling trends have been indicating for a while. CO,IL go GOP by smaller margins, getting you to GOP+7 I have NV,CA,WA,WI,CT as total tossups(CT becomes one with McMahon's obscene $$). I have it GOP 48 DEM 47 TOSSUPS 5. If I was forced to bet, I would say we win WA,WI,NV, CA. So call me crazy at +11 with a forced-at-gunpoint prediction.

164 O/T: Say, are you guys all ready for World War III? It's starting anytime now:

Iran has passed a crucial nuclear threshold, weapons inspectors warned yesterday, and could now go on to arm an atomic missile with relative ease.

A report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Iranian nuclear scientists had made at least 22 kilograms of enriched uranium at least 20 per cent purity, a technical hurdle that is the hardest to overcome on the way to weapons-grade uranium.

Experts estimate that 20 kgs of uranium is the minimum required to arm a warhead. The uranium would still need to have its purity raised to 90 per cent, but that is a relatively easy process.

The agency's report comes in spite of the recent imposition at the United Nations of a fresh round of sanctions against Iran and will heighten fears of an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear plants. The prospect of an attack had receded only recently with American assurances that Tehran was more than a year away from acquiring a bomb.

The Vienna-based nuclear watchdog said Tehran had maintained its absolute defiance of international pressure to curb its programme despite the imposition of harsh sanctions in May. The IAEA has grown increasingly alarmed at Iran's behaviour and the latest report, which will be presented to the agency's governors at a meeting next week, lambasted Tehran on a series of fronts.

The country's refusal to answer questions on its attempts to make a nuclear warhead that could be fitted on to its most advanced missiles was denounced as a violation of sanctions.

The agency also rebuked the regime for its repeated failure to co-operate with weapons inspections designed to ensure that material was held securely at Iranian plants.

Iran barred two weapons inspectors from the country in June after they reported undeclared nuclear activity by scientists. It has also systematically objected to other scientists on spurious grounds.

"The agency is ... concerned that the repeated objection to the designation of experienced inspectors hampers the inspection process and detracts from the agency's ability to implement safeguards in Iran," the report said.

The acquisition of uranium will cause the most alarm however. Until February the Iranians were enriching uranium to levels of no more than 5 per cent at its plant in Natanz.

The government-funded Verification Research, Training and Information Centre, an expert body with privileged access to the IAEA, has estimated that a weapons expert could make a nuclear device from 20 kgs of 20 per cent enriched material with relatively few further obstacles.

The IAEA under Yukiya Amano, its new Japanese director general, has taken a much tougher line with Iran's obstruction of international inspections. But the agency's reports demonstrate that while the Iranian economy has suffered from sanctions the nuclear programme has not been impeded. Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium, the feedstock of both civilian and military nuclear programmes, has risen by around 15 per cent since May to reach 2.8 tonnes. However the number of centrifuges that refine uranium to higher levels of purity has fallen to 3,772 from 3,936.

165 BTW Ace,

You might be noticing a bit of pushback from Rush, Levin, et al on the Mike Castle thing. At least, I've noticed it.

Maybe folks think it's a good thing to scare the RINOs.  But can you "scare" a guy who's been in power past his normal retirement age?  I don't see any downside (from his perspective) for Castle sticking with his "independent" ways.

OTOH, I've watched a few interviews with his opponent. I don't think she comes across as any ditzy-er than Jan ("brain fade") Brewer or Sharon ("She's got Marty Feldman eyes") Angle. I think we need to remember that these kinds of folks are closer to normal (like AoSHQ readers) than most politicians.

Besides, it's clear that being a genus is not a requirement for membership to "that August Body," and in most cases is probably a severe impediment. How else do we explain Harry Reid?

So I say it's up to his constituents.  If they say he has to go, then let's be brave and accept it, and get behind whats-her-name.

166 Ace, I have a question for you:

If I were to write up a series of posts on all the important Congressional-level races in each state (because there's something interesting going on in damn near every one), would it be the sort of thing you'd be interested in frontpaging?  I could group them together.   There are lots of races that are just surfacing NOW as real ones (Larsen in WA, to name one), and the Labor Day stretch is a great time to take stock.

I figure that, if nothing else, it will help with what you always complain about: letting us know which races are worth focusing on.

167 There are two things that can get a Democrat to stay home and not vote. 1) Unbridled GOP enthusiasm. 2) Barack Obama. The rest is details.

168 Winning 51 seats in the Senate would be huge, if only because Judiciary Committee Chairman Sessions will not let another far-left nominee be reported out.  We can never expect a good nominee from Obama, but we can either force a moderate choice or play the four-corners like Democrats did in '92 so the next Prez gets to make the pick.

The biggest threat of the expectations game isn't what the MFM and the Dems with say to cover their losses afterward, but that it makes our side complacent.  We don't send that extra $10, we don't make sure our borderline friends vote, we don't make those GOTV calls.  That is the danger.

RE:  Michelle Obama - is it still PC here to note she is an arrogant woman with a chip on her shoulder?  Or that she looks like someone beat her with an ugly stick and then stuck it up her rectum?

Or that she probably scares the hell out of our prissy, pissy, petulant, prancing, preening peacock of a President?

169 >>>If I were to write up a series of posts on all the important Congressional-level races in each state (because there's something interesting going on in damn near every one), would it be the sort of thing you'd be interested in frontpaging? I could group them together. There are lots of races that are just surfacing NOW as real ones (Larsen in WA, to name one), and the Labor Day stretch is a great time to take stock. That would indeed be an awesome thing.

170 Posted by: Average Joe at September 06, 2010 01:52 PM (liBQN)

they hid o'donnell away after his on air implosion and now they are brining him back...

seriously doubt he will have any effect on Irish Catholic voters.....he doesn't behave like any Irish Catholic I know and trust me, I know plenty..

you have a better shot with MKHammer

171 Posted by: ace at September 06, 2010 03:03 PM (QbA6l)

That would be great cause it is driving me nuts that they keep saying ol Kristen G will keep her hillary's the people of new york's senate seat.

She apparently has some great challengers but if they go electronic as I've heard rumored, in fact one county on Long Island already disseminated info on this through the mail, then makes you wonder how fair the election can be.

172 We ain't ready for one of those to pop over here, especially under our current leadership.

Posted by: CDR M at September 06, 2010 03:03 PM (5I8G0)

I can just imagine the phone call from Netanyahu to Abbas:

"Say, Mahmoud, this is kind of embarrassing, seeing as how I was the one pushing for face-to-face talks and all, but do you mind if we postpone next week's meeting by a couple of days?  You might have heard that we're dealing with a little situation in Iran -- we have to humiliate militarily a nation of 80 million that boasts of highly advanced weaponry, and it's going to really eat into my schedule for the week.  We should be all done by, say, next Tuesday, and then we can get back to dealing with the important business of Palestine.  That work for you?  Great -- have your people call my people."

173
185  "It's not just that she's a bit fruitcake-y, it's that she has a number of ethical issues hanging over her head, some of which may also be legal issues."

Most of that looks like minor stuff, typical of someone strapped for cash. I don't see how taking advantage of tax loopholes to save yourself a few tens of thousands (we're not talking high-roller, here) is "unethical." Screwing people over, a la Enron, by monkeying with accounting is big-time unethical, and criminal. Harry Reid's shady land deals are unethical, and apparently no one cares.

I'll trust the Delaware voters on this. Especially since I could be wrong. In the preference cascade, even weak candidates can get elected.

174 If wookie is out, can we use the term "Fat Yoda"?

Thats what I love about the moron horde - always testing the limits

175 That would indeed be an awesome thing.

I may start on it tonight, then.  I imagine I'll do it by regions: Northeast (NY + New England, Midatlantic (NC, VA, MD, DE, NJ), Deep South (FL, GA, SC, AL, MS, TX, LA), Appalachia (WV, TN, KY, AR), Rust Belt (PA, OH, IN, MI, IL), Midwest (WI, MN, MO, ND, SD, NE, KS), Southwest/Mountain West (MT, ID, AZ, NM, WY, CO, AK), and West Coast/Pacific Northeast. (CA, OR, WA, HI) Off the top of my head, those are the regions I'd divide it up into.

176

I have to agree with you Ace. I think voters are looking for a reason to not vote for the Democrats. Unfortunately, the Republicans can not seem to figure out what the voters want. I mean, how hard is that.

OT- I come back to the States after a few years out and I run into a security Nazi of the female gender in the Dallas airport. I did not jump fast enough for her so she really tried to make my life difficult. I also noticed that they were dividing people in the security line according to economy class versus first class/business. Since when does my economic relationship with the airline determine what line I get into for the security inspection? Needless to say, I was getting pretty exercised by the time I got through that whole mess.

177 Posted by: Jeff B. at September 06, 2010 02:14 PM (NjYDy)

Reid and Boxer will lose.  You heard it here first, or sort of first

178 Looking at post #167 stuiec I extract the following data:

1 California   Boxer     (D) +4.0
2 Nevada      Reid       (D) +2.5
3 Wisconsin   Feingold (D) +1.0

4 Colorado    Buck    (R) +2.5
5 Florida        Rubio   (R) +2.4
6 Illinois         Kirk     (R) +1.0
7 Washington Rossi    (R) +2.3

8 Delaware    Leans GOP
9 Alaska            Likely GOP
10 Indiana          Likely GOP
11 Oregon              Likely Dem
12 West Virginia     Likely Dem


I think the reported percentages are a bit too 'D', by 1% or 2%.

I think there's too much voter anger for 1, 2 & 3 to go D. Reid and Boxer are reviled everywhere, and Feingold...1% with his proposed legislation?

8, Delaware, elected Joe Biden.

But I see 9 of 12 going 'R'.

179 Okay, as an admitted Moron, I don't like the "Michelle is ugly" crap. It's weak. Rush is fat and has a lisp. Palin pronounces "deal" like "dill."  Chris Cristie is a frikkin blimp. John Boenher could play Frankenstein. Mark Levin is a cranky bald guy who hides his baldness. I'm a moron, and I have moobs.

Damn, that's funny shit, right there. Where's my stand-up gig?

Maybe in Moron preschool.  Up here in Moron Second Grade, we like a little less obviousness in our humor.

On the other hand,  classical Moron values seem to indicate that, if you have to explain the joke, ...it's even funnier.

180 187 Intrade does not look good for CA or NV right now. In CA, Boxer is up 58 to 42. In NV Reid is up 56 to 42. WA and IL are real close. ARK, CO, CT, DE, IN, NH and PA are overwhelming in the R column.

Posted by: CDR M at September 06, 2010 03:01 PM (5I8G0)

I call bullshit on intrade. Even Boxer's family don't like her. Even her closest political allies know she's a pathological liar. And even *California* voters are pretty sick of this crap.

Sure, it could still all fall down, but I seriously doubt anything close to 58/42.

181 So what will Iran do with limited nukes?  Go for the EMP effect or direct nuke?

Posted by: CDR M at September 06, 2010 03:33 PM (5I8G0)

They will call up each Gulf Arab emir in turn and say, "Nice oil sheikdom you've got there, Abdul.  Be a shame if something were to happen to it.  As you know, the Islamic Republic of Iran has many thousands of missiles able to reach your little nation.  Now, I want you to ask yourself one question: are you positive that the Americans can shoot down every single one of our missiles if they accidentally all got launched at once at you?  Because if even one gets through, it might just be the one that has our first working nuclear warhead on it."

And then they'd sign off with, "See you at the next OPEC meeting.  We'll have some proposals there that I am sure you'll want to support."

182 #201 California will be, at worst, a 2-3pt win for Boxer. Her numbers are absolutely horrible. Fiorina has raised her profile and has ENORMOUS support in the Central Valley and the Inland Empire, areas decimated by the recession and that stupid water shut-off.

183 200 You know what is most ugly about her?It is her whole attitude and quite obvious contempt for most of America(which is shared by her husband).Physically,she is not really hideous but the MFM has tried to push her as a beautiful fashionable first lady,which she also isn't.

184 Oh, and I like the Daily Telegraph (UK) headline about Iran:

Iran on brink of nuclear weapon, warns watchdog

If even the IAE-fuckin'-A says that the Iranians are only a fine hair's breadth away from a bomb, what does that say about the CIA's assessment that they'd need another year?

185 You know what is most ugly about her?It is her whole attitude and quite obvious contempt for most of America(which is shared by her husband).Physically,she is not really hideous but the MFM has tried to push her as a beautiful fashionable first lady,which she also isn't.

Posted by: steevy at September 06, 2010 04:01 PM (dzIYr)

I'd dispute the "not really hideous" bit, at least on her off days. But yeah, your point is correct.

As Frank Zappa said:

What's the ugliest
Part of your body?
What's the ugliest
Part of your body?
Some say your nose
Some say your toes
(I think it's your mind)
But I think it's YOUR MIND
(Your mind)
I think it's your mind, woo woo

186

_{Posted by: stuiec at September 06, 2010 04:05 PM (fgCQL)}

The 'White Zone' is for 'Loading' and 'Unloading' ONLY, buddy.

 

187 @195, JeffB.

I agree with Ace- a compilation would be fantastic for us political junkies. I only have one race in VA to worry about- SorosButtBoy aka Perriello in the 5th District, people around here don't care who he runs against, they want him out. He only barely won because of 1. Obama and 2. a weak opponent who had mud on him from Duke Cunningham.

The GOTV call system is great- you can help out on any race from home, as long as you have a phone and an internet connection.

188

Nye (VA-02) is a gonner. Not as crispy as Perellio but nevertheless doomed.

Perelllio (VA-05) or however you spell it (you won't need to in a few months) is toast. Even Democrats I talk to agree he's a gonner and a waste of money. Which is a shame, because I'd like them to waste some money there.

Boucher (VA-09) is still slightly favored and has more money at the moment.

Connolly (VA-11) aka the Toad is a true toss-up and will go down to the wire.

This. I predict the GOP will take all of these seats except Boucher's.  Boucher has a super-establishment opponent in State Sen. Majority Leader Morgan Griffith, however, which is why some people are perplexed that the race isn't closer.  Me, I suspect that it's Griffith's establishment credentials which are hurting him somewhat -- he can't energize tea-partiers as a true outsider guy, and his argument for getting rid of a long-serving beloved incumbent is weakened when he looks like more of the same: another political lifer.

189 Ace, the reason I'm skeptical about the extent of the effects of the 2010 wave is because the country is far more geographically polarized than it was in 1994.  We've been politically balkanized along Red State / Blue State lines to an extent none of us have experienced before.  The bias in coin flips, as you put it, has to be heavier than it has ever been before; far heavier, I believe, than what was required in '94; and heavier than what we can reliably expect now.  The good news is that the bias IS far heavier than in '94; the bad news is that America is at such a point, at which we must question whether it's enough.

In 1994, Democrats still had an overall edge in the South.  This was a time in which Democrats still had a majority in the Texas congressional delegation; in which Georgia had never, ever had a Republican governor since Reconstruction; in which Louisiana had two Democrat senators and it was inconceivable that it would ever be otherwise.  I'm not certain that the Republicans controlled a single chamber of a single legislature anywhere in the region.  The realignment was well underway, of course, but the South was still about a 50-50 proposition for the GOP, at best.

Likewise, in 1994 the West Coast states of Washington, Oregon and California, and much of the Northeast, were still partisan battlegrounds.  Republicans were a commanding force in these states.  California hadn't even thought about electing a Democrat governor since Jerry Brown.  Washington had a Republican senator.  Oregon had two Republican senators.  Even Vermont had a Republican senator.

None of this is the case anymore.  In 2010, the Republicans own the South.  The GOP has a commanding edge in the Texas delegation; Georgia's had a Republican governor for eight years and is likely to continue the streak; and Charlie Melancon is running for the Senate in Louisiana as a "pro-life, pro-gun Southern Democrat" and being beaten by over 20 points.  Republicans are taking the majorities in state legislatures left and right.  Meanwhile, on the West Coast all the GOP senators are gone, and in New England, there are no House Republicans left at all; the Solid South has become the Solid Northeast.  In California, conservative voters have been flooding out of the state as quickly as liberals and illegal aliens have been flooding in; in Washington, the Republican's Senate candidate this year actually won the governorship six years ago, and still ended up losing.

Now, a lot of this will change this year.  Republicans will resurge in the Northeast.  More of them will pop up on the West Coast.  They will, of course, continue to dominate the South.  But this will all happen in spite of a trend that has been going on over the last couple of decades; and it will remain to be seen whether the GOP victories in unfriendly territory are the beginnings of a new trend, or are outliers; let alone whether we can rack up enough of them this year to take the Senate.

Take a look at Presidential and Senate maps since 1992.  We've now gone through five consecutive presidential elections without winning any of the following, once-competitive states (among others): California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Pennsylvania, Washington, and Wisconsin.  The last times Republicans won elections to the Senate in any of these states were 2000 and 2004 -- when Rick Santorum and Arlen Specter won their respective re-elections in Pennsylvania (and look what's happened with them since) -- and we now have to win in basically all of them in order to take over the Senate.  Doable?  Yes, so powerful is the anti-Democrat sentiment this year.  Likely?  Well... are you a betting man, Ace?  How about you, CAC?  (I'm not, but if I were I wouldn't take these odds.)

And finally, take a look at some of the available recent polling for key districts, this year.  Look at AZ-08 -- a district with a Republican tilt -- where GOP nominee Jesse Kelly is stuck in a tie with Democrat congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, who voted for the entire Obama agenda, HCR, cap-and-trade, stimulus, everything.  Look at VA-09, an otherwise-massively-Republican district where Democrat Rick Boucher -- who voted to destroy the local coal industry with C&T -- has a ten-point lead over Morgan Griffith in a SurveyUSA poll from a few days ago.  There are many other such races.  If the wave, the generic ballot, Cook PVI scores, and whatever else you please are such reliable indicators of Democrat defeat on the basis of sheer partisan numbers, then why aren't Congressmen like this losing?  And how many other districts are we taking for granted on the basis of those partisan numbers, that in fact aren't sure things at all?

Demographics is destiny, and the trends have been running against us for a long time.  In 2004, George W. Bush's re-election, by all logic and historical precedent, ought to have looked like his dad's crushing electoral victory in '88; instead he eked out a 3-point win and lost 19 states (including three of the five largest ones) to the biggest joke of a Democrat nominee since Dukakis.  It was the smallest margin of victory of any re-elected President in American history.  In 2006, the Republicans had their asses handed to them so badly that they managed the unprecedented historic feat of failing to flip a single House seat, Senate seat, or governorship from the Democrats; not one, anywhere in the country.  In 2008... well, we all know what happened in 2008.  And before we get too bullish about states like California, we'd do well to remember what Obama's margin was there.

The country is so stuck on stupid in so many key states, and our politics have deteriorated so much, so fast, that I'm not willing to take 1994 as a reliable yardstick for how we'll do this year.  If the margins in the generic congressional ballot this year were directly comparable to those in 1994, and translated down the ballots in individual states the way they did then, Boxer would be done.  Murray would be done.  Feingold would be done.  Reid would certainly be done.  They'd ALL be losing by ten points or more.  Instead, these races are all statistically tied at best and it's going to take everything the GOP has and then some to dislodge these people.

We'll very likely win the House (though I'm not buying this 90-seat-pickup stuff for a second).  We may very well even win the Senate.  But the days in which waves had a truly saturating national effect, of the kind that gave Republicans a majority of the Washington state congressional delegation in '94, are over.  We're so Balkanized by now that we are for all practical purposes two countries; in the "red" country the wave will wash away all things Democrat; in the "blue" country, it's got some formidable breakers waiting for it.  Thus, my skepticism; which is not meant to depress or discourage, but to communicate the reality that it's still early September and we've got a long way to go if we're going to fight back recent history.

190 RE: "About the Spin..."

Agreed. Don't care. Don't care. Don't care.

That circus of clowns, aka the propaganda arm of the DNC, will be their spinning tales and spreading shit no matter what happens. Let's just throw as big a tantrum as possible on voting day and watch the bozos frown as they get tea-bagged into submission.

191 Winning 51 seats in the Senate would be huge, if only because Judiciary Committee Chairman Sessions will not let another far-left nominee be reported out.

That's the key.  What happens in committee is almost always more important than what happens on the floor.  This isn't primarily about playing some PR game: it's about actually stopping bad policy and bad appointments.  The difference between 50 and 51 is everything.  Like others have said, the press will blame the GOP even if we lose.  Let's let make their infuriated impotent accusations actually be true.

192 Ace, the reason I'm skeptical about the extent of the effects of the 2010 wave is because the country is far more geographically polarized than it was in 1994.

Not really, at least not by State. It is polarized urban vs rural with the suburbs acting as the "purple zones".  Stes with a large number of "urban areas" compared to rural fall in the Demo camp while those which have a larger rural area will go Republican.

Ga has been borderline now for years because of Atlanta, Macon, and Augusta. South Carolina has Columbia and Charleston going Dem and not much else. But the South actually started going Republican with Goldwater in 68 and by 72 had pretty much abandoned the Democratic Party except for local elections, which the Dems still control to this day.

193 What happens in committee is almost always more important than what happens on the floor.

As far as the Judiciary Committee goes lets not forget that RINO Graham is on there and it only takes one R vote to allow a nominee out of committee.

194 "As far as the Judiciary Committee goes lets not forget that RINO Graham is on there and it only takes one R vote to allow a nominee out of committee."

Wrong.  Yes, I know those are the standing rules of the committee.  But that doesn't matter: the chairman sets the agenda.  Only the chairman can decide when to give a nominee a hearing, and WHEN to vote on the nomination (or not to, as the case may be).  If Sessions were chairing Judiciary, you can bet neither of those two would be on the Court now.

195 Michelle Obama is ready to launch!

There isn't enough rocket fuel on the planet to get that fat ass into space.

196

BTW, for those wondering who Charlie Cook is, he is THE "guru" of election handicapping, especially Congressional elections.  He doesn't do polling, he anlyzes others' polls, has lots of staff who talk to people on the ground, watches fundraising numbers and ad buys, etc.  He's nominally a Democrat but his analysis are as close to unbiased as anything you will find.  I've heard him speak many times and he is awesome.  He was the first major analyst to call the 1994 wave.  I heard him speak in May of 2006 and he called the Dems taking the House, when a lot of other analysts didn't see it yet.

So, when Charlie Cook says the Senate is in play, you had best believe there are a lot of Democrats shitting their pants.

 

197 For the Obamacrats, seems this election is shaping up as one of the Lemmings versus the Rats. 

The Lemmings are willing to march off whatever plank their leadership tells them, no matter what.  Hope & Change -- It's a good plan...

The Rats are opportunists.  They don't care so much about leadership, they just want a piece of the pie, be that power or money.  They're abandoning the Hope and Change march.  There aren't enough pies to go around... 

The GOP, well, while it's Senate leadership is full of RINOs, or rats by another name, there is the tea party -- the not so silent majority.  For too long the tea partiers been paying for this or that DC party and they're tired of it...  

The danger in all of this is where the Rats end up.  They're not just going to go away.  The rats will infect the system wherever there is an accumulation of power for the purpose of distributing wealth in hopes of getting more pie.. 

198 It's gonna be a squeaker with Angle, but I think she'll pull it off. I really wish she could elaborate on her statements more, like with her CNN interview, but I don't find her comments all that controversial. When our State Dept is flying radical imams around to raise funds for an unpopular mosque at Ground Zero and taxpayer-funded AIG engages in sharia-compliant finance, and this is all endorsed by Elena Kagan, Larry Summers, Michael Bloomberg, Eric Holder, etc. then it is fair to say people in leadership positions within our government are cooperating with our enemies. None of Angle's comments are nearly as controversial as Imam Rauf's or Janet Napoletano's DHS memos on veterans. Anyone with a room temperature IQ would hear her quotes, the worst they've got, and shrug their shoulders. Reid is finished.

199

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