November 20, 2010
— Open Blogger Even as I prepare for my first-ever trip to the European continent, the news keeps pouring in that Europe is, put simply, in deep kimchee. The problem with financial shell games is that you eventually run out of shells, and that's what's happening in the glorious EU:
The government backstopped the banks, and now the European Central Bank has to back up the Irish government?
Yes. And in the end, S&P is estimating out that the bank bailout could cost Ireland taxpayers $80 billion a year, which might be more than a third of GDP.
Who's next?
It's Portugal. Just look at the spreads. Greece is the highest. Then Ireland. Then Portugal. Then Spain. All of these spreads are wider now than in May before the announcement of the safety net. That's showing you that the markets see this as a solvency problem [ie they're fundamentally broke], even as the ECB is dealing with this as a liquidity problem [ie they'll be OK with some cash transfusions].
Oh, and Europe is struggling with shortages of critical materials:
The European Commission expects that economic growth in China, India and Brazil will lead to significantly increased demand for raw materials. The EU strategy paper notes that the manufacture of high-tech products will see demand for some metals rise 20-fold over the next 20 years. The European Commission has identified 14 "critical metals" whose demand could triple by 2030, and which are only extracted in a few countries. The following metals could face supply problems: antimony, beryllium, cobalt, fluorite, gallium, germanium, graphite, indium, magnesium, niobium, platinum group metals, rare earths, tantalum and tungsten.
In the meantime, several European countries, including Spain, Greece, Romania and Sweden, as well as other nations, including the US, Canada and Australia, have started new extraction activities. Their reaction is late, however: The raw materials crisis in Europe has worsened because many companies had scaled back their mining as a result of the economic crisis.
As the article notes, we're facing shortages as well, but we've got domestic sources that Europe doesn't.
So, even with the challenges we face here in the US, at least we have responsive state and federal governments that are already starting to change direction based on the elections a few weeks back. The Fed may be messing with the dollar, but I suspect it has better long-term prospects than the euro.
Posted by: Open Blogger at
08:39 PM
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Posted by: t-bird at November 20, 2010 08:45 PM (FcR7P)
Posted by: newser at November 20, 2010 08:56 PM (V45rX)
I suspect California is. At least the Europeans are trying to head this off.
We in California went full Thelma and Loius: we stomped on the accelerator and are currently in mid-flight.
Posted by: RayJ at November 20, 2010 09:03 PM (rDhm0)
Which the EPA will forbid us to touch if some San Francisco judge doesn't decree it first. We've got plenty of oil here too, can't touch it. King Barry is working on making sure the abundance of coal we have stays underground too.
Posted by: kbdabear at November 20, 2010 09:04 PM (vdfwz)
I suspect California is. At least the Europeans are trying to head this off.
We in California went full Thelma and Loius: we stomped on the accelerator and are currently in mid-flight.
Posted by: RayJ at November 21, 2010 01:03 AM
I've read posts of some Californians on other sites who say that the rest of the nation will come to our senses and return to the socialism that CA enjoys, because Californians are just so much smarter
Quick retort: "So when can we expect the brilliant Californians to bail out the rest of America?"
Posted by: kbdabear at November 20, 2010 09:07 PM (vdfwz)
Seems to me after all we've spent on those people, we should get some benefits by helping to develop their natural resources and become a preferred customer. Maybe some of those goat farmers and poppy farmers could learn a new trade.. mining!
Posted by: Chitown Jerry at November 20, 2010 09:09 PM (Do528)
Fritzworth, did Ace say to go ahead and post? As far as I know, Ace hasn't called open blog. He said he'd be leaving Monday. You might check with him.
Also, do you use a different name in comments?
Posted by: rdbrewer at November 20, 2010 09:27 PM (Xd/l+)
Posted by: jbarntt at November 20, 2010 09:43 PM (UNFot)
Posted by: Sock Puppet 5000 at November 20, 2010 10:28 PM (sWPjB)
Posted by: Sock Puppet 5000 at November 20, 2010 10:32 PM (sWPjB)
Why, never, because socialism hasn't been done right yet, Silly.
Posted by: Paul Kruuuugman at November 20, 2010 10:43 PM (swuwV)
Posted by: navybrat at November 20, 2010 10:46 PM (I/Hbl)
I'm gonna try and be positive about it and just say that it's working, it's just that the desired result is anarchy and chaos. Hope Krugman is prepared to have to yell, "I've got the conche!"
Posted by: Sock Puppet 5000 at November 20, 2010 11:01 PM (sWPjB)
Posted by: Apologetic California at November 21, 2010 12:46 AM (8VZ5l)
Posted by: Eric at November 21, 2010 01:29 AM (PqsRq)
Have a nice trip. You'll find that Europe is doing fine. It looks like it did a few years ago and the people are just as friendly and genuine as before.
Aside from their looming problems, it's a great place to visit and will still be a great place to visit in the future. Maybe your trip will provide a bit of perspective and context.
Posted by: Pigilito at November 21, 2010 02:25 AM (2loKq)
The tit needs to dry up.
Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2010 02:26 AM (e4sSD)
and that whole paper is just one giant exercise in central planning...ugh
Posted by: chemjeff at November 21, 2010 02:26 AM (PaSAU)
Nothing like the vision of a broken down Prius with a mattress tied to the top heading into OK and the panhandle of TX looking for a new home.
How about a black and white photo of a CA woman, old before her time, sitting at the roadside in OK with a child in her lap and a "thousand yard stare".
Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2010 02:30 AM (e4sSD)
One-way balance of trade issues don't last long. In the end trade ALWAYS balances whether politics tries to interfere or not.
Posted by: Vic at November 21, 2010 02:33 AM (e4sSD)
Posted by: JackStraw at November 21, 2010 05:45 AM (TMB3S)
Our place in the sun, yes. You think some third-rate watercolor painter started all this?!
Posted by: Zombie Kaiser Wilhelm II at November 21, 2010 06:52 AM (DCQ0q)
16 How pray tell are the Germans going to take over the world and/or annihilate anyone when they don't have the manpower for it? Unless of course you mean a potential "new" batch of Germans -- aka. Turks (some of whom already call Germany "West Turkey").
Heidi and Hans didn't get down and raise those young 'uns like they should have...it's just not sophisticated and, well, European; the consequences are a bitch.
Posted by: unknown jane at November 21, 2010 07:15 AM (5/yRG)
16 How pray tell are the Germans going to take over the world and/or annihilate anyone when they don't have the manpower for it? Unless of course you mean a potential "new" batch of Germans -- aka. Turks (some of whom already call Germany "West Turkey").
Heidi and Hans didn't get down and raise those young 'uns like they should have...it's just not sophisticated and, well, European; the consequences are a bitch.
Posted by: unknown jane at November 21, 2010 11:15 AM (5/yRG)
When Germany is run by Turks it won't be Germany. It takes Germans to make a Germany. It takes Kemal Attaturk to make modern Turkey. Those will both be gone with the up and coming Islamist Turkey and the Turkish Germany.
Posted by: Minuteman at November 21, 2010 07:34 AM (502+o)
See, this is why the whole envrio-luddite movement is killing us. We've got tons of resources. We're one of the richest nations on the planet it terms of resources, but they won't let us get them.
Its especially ironic that California has tremendous wealth, but their leaders keep placing it out of bounds. They killed their argi-industry, they won't exploit their oil, and who know what other mineral wealth is sitting out there churned up by their active fault system. All I hope is that when the feds take them over, they lose their electoral votes.
Posted by: Iblis at November 21, 2010 09:39 AM (9221z)
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