Ace of Spades HQ

September 07, 2010

Computer Simulations Predict 51 Seat GOP Gain
— Ace

At Hot Air's headlines, political scientists run 1000 simulated contests and find a 51 seat gain to be the most likely scenario. (Or, I guess, that's average of the scenarios, I guess an under-over.)

The below chart shows how many seats the Democrats are expected to win, and the peaks for each interval indicate the frequency that particular seat-count comes up. The red/blue is not about how many seats each wins; it just indicates that if Democrats win under 218 seats, as the case for most of the graph, then the House will be under Republican control.

Credit: Bafumi & Erickson

They cite one successful prediction...

Two weeks before Election Day in 2006, we posted a prediction that the Democrats would gain 32 seats and recapture the House majority.

But that's not a long track record, and I note they don't themselves call out their 2008 prediction. I assume that one was off.

In their chart, there is a genuine possibility of the Democrats only winning around 185 seats. The Democrats hold 256 seats now (including one open seat formerly controlled by them), so... well there seems to be a genuine possibility, on the high end of course, of a 71 seat gain. And I don't even believe that's the ceiling, either.

In more poll news:

Rasmussen: GOP holds 12 point advantage with likely voters. This matches the biggest GOP lead, ever, as found by Rasmussen.

Rasmussen: Fiorina takes (insignificant) lead over Boxer, 48-47. I still go by the rule tied is ahead, even on Rasumussen.

In this video, political reporters tell Scarborough that Feingold is in real trouble in Wisconsin.

Posted by: Ace at 10:07 AM | Comments (116)
Post contains 285 words, total size 2 kb.

1 O/T, but is anyone else listening to Jim Rome now?

Funny as shit, and even wherestherum should be listening.

Posted by: logprof at September 07, 2010 10:08 AM (BP6Z1)

2 We also predict that the earth will burn to a cinder by 2015.

Posted by: Computer Simulations at September 07, 2010 10:08 AM (5aa4z)

3 House - 77
Senate - 11

Heard it here first folks. Missouri Sovereignty Project

Posted by: Sukie Tawdry at September 07, 2010 10:09 AM (YmdLx)

4 IF YOU TOSS THE REGISTERED VOTER POLLS- The polling averages look like this- Fiorina wins Johnson wins Buck wins Rossi Wins Kirk Wins Coats Wins that guy in ND wins Boozeman Wins Castle Wins Toomey Wins and we hold all our seats. That seems consistant with generic ballot polling. THE ONLY THING dragging Fiorina and Johnson's numbers into losing on RCP are old RV polls.

Posted by: CAC at September 07, 2010 10:11 AM (lV4Fs)

5 2 We also predict that the earth will burn to a cinder by 2015.

Your predictions are off by 3 years.

Posted by: The Mayans at September 07, 2010 10:11 AM (9hSKh)

All I want is a repeat of my favorite DU quote from 11:40 PM, election night 2004:

"Fuck this, I'm sparkin a bowl."

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at September 07, 2010 10:12 AM (SCcgT)

7 House: 55 Senate: 7 Sorry to be a pill, folks, but the DemonRats will drag out all their sleazy skillz to keep from losing both houses.

Posted by: joncelli at September 07, 2010 10:13 AM (RD7QR)

8 We are going to win the senate.

Posted by: Timbo at September 07, 2010 10:14 AM (ph9vn)

9 From the actual, you know, article:

The pooled generic polls
conducted 121 to 180 days in advance of the 2010 election show a very close division of 49.1% Democratic and 50.9% Republican. But a near tie in the polls in mid-summer projects to a significant vote plurality for the Republicans in November, close to a 53%-47% split. This prediction is not due to any bias in the polls, but rather stems from the electorate's tendency in past midterm cycles to gravitate further toward the "out" party over the election year -- ultimately gaining about two extra points beyond what summer polls would otherwise show.

Sweet, if true.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at September 07, 2010 10:14 AM (5aa4z)

10
It'd be interesting to see how many Dem seats were gained by victories of >5% in '06 & '08.

Because I think this year all Republicans, thanks mainly to the Tea Party, have a five-point bump.

Posted by: i got a gal in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at September 07, 2010 10:14 AM (uFokq)

11 the dems are being treated like dogs in the polls......

Posted by: phoenixgirl at September 07, 2010 10:15 AM (eOXTH)

12 Hey, um. I'm for what you guys are for.

Posted by: Charlie Crist at September 07, 2010 10:15 AM (CgRyx)

All I want is a repeat of my favorite DU quote from 11:40 PM, election night 2004:

"Fuck this, I'm sparkin a bowl."

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at September 07, 2010 02:12 PM (SCcgT)

Ah, DU. That lunatic site is always good for some schadenfreude when something good happens.

Posted by: Ombudsman at September 07, 2010 10:16 AM (c1oyg)

14 O/T, but is anyone else listening to Jim Rome now?

Never. Well, I tried once and figured out he was not worth wasting time on. I'm not even sure he is on any station in the Chicago area.

Posted by: CUS at September 07, 2010 10:16 AM (wOGfT)

15 The pretty graph/picture isn't working.

Posted by: Comrade Arthur at September 07, 2010 10:17 AM (eyHnk)

16 I've been informed that the tingle running down my led is actually a stroke.

Posted by: Chris Matthews at September 07, 2010 10:17 AM (Y81Xa)

17 This simulation is full of shit, wingers!

Democrats pick up 45 seats!!

Posted by: snap dragon at September 07, 2010 10:18 AM (BP6Z1)

18 Did the computer simulation also show Obama still sucking cock on September 7th 2010?

Posted by: Mr Pink at September 07, 2010 10:18 AM (5cHfe)

19 I saw it wasn't working; it's up now. HuffPo must prevent hotlinking or something.

Posted by: ace at September 07, 2010 10:18 AM (QbA6l)

20 Pshaw! Those polls are bogus! The Democrats will not only hold the House and the Senate, they are going to make huge gains in both! Everyone knows that voters lie to pollsters. It's all a bunch of hooey. All is well.

Posted by: Liberal Talking Head at September 07, 2010 10:19 AM (8GYOu)

21 > 10 It'd be interesting to see how many Dem seats were gained by victories of >5% in '06 & '08. Posted by: i got a gal in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo Urrrgh. I recall one close Senate race after another falling to the Dems in Nov 2006. They had to sweep the close elections to take the Senate - and they did.

Posted by: Comrade Arthur at September 07, 2010 10:19 AM (eyHnk)

22 Computer Simulations preditct i will have to change my underpants on November 3rd

Posted by: Ben at September 07, 2010 10:20 AM (wuv1c)

23 I've been informed that the tingle running down my led is actually a stroke.

Posted by: Chris Matthews at September 07, 2010 02:17 PM (Y81Xa)

I don't know, it's runny, it's brown, it has a fetid stench. I'm thinking more along the lines of liquid stool. Oh look, there goes a kernal of corn rolling down his ankle...

Posted by: runningrn at September 07, 2010 10:21 AM (8GYOu)

24 14 O/T, but is anyone else listening to Jim Rome now?

Never. Well, I tried once and figured out he was not worth wasting time on. I'm not even sure he is on any station in the Chicago area.

Posted by: CUS at September 07, 2010 02:16 PM (wOGfT)

--Well, The Rock was talking shit about Miami beating Ohio State Saturday, and the past hour has been all about The Rock (which is why rum would like it).

The best was when Rome played old clips of Hillary, 0bama and McCain talking smack WWE style. I could not believe they actually did those!

Posted by: logprof at September 07, 2010 10:21 AM (BP6Z1)

This shouldn't happen to a dog.

Posted by: Blue Hen at September 07, 2010 10:22 AM (R2fpr)

26 Pshaw! Those polls are bogus! The Democrats will not only hold the House and the Senate, they are going to make huge gains in both! Everyone knows that voters lie to pollsters. It's all a bunch of hooey. All is well.

Posted by: Liberal Talking Head at September 07, 2010 02:19 PM (8GYOu)

Who do they poll? I've never gotten a call from a pollster. Then again, thanks to caller ID, if I don't recognize the number I never answer. As the RNC has been discovering over the past months.

Posted by: Ombudsman at September 07, 2010 10:22 AM (c1oyg)

27 As Ace has said before, let's not start sucking each others' cocks just yet.

Posted by: Hatchet Five at September 07, 2010 10:22 AM (pyi1D)

28 What's that Lassie? You say that Timmy Geithner fell down the well? Good.

Posted by: Blue Hen at September 07, 2010 10:22 AM (R2fpr)

29 As Ace has said before, let's not start sucking each others' cocks just yet.

Posted by: Hatchet Five

The holiday is indeed over.

Posted by: Winston Wolf at September 07, 2010 10:23 AM (R2fpr)

30 There is one thing to remember about computer "simulations". They always say exactly what the programmers want them to say.

Posted by: Vic at September 07, 2010 10:25 AM (/jbAw)

31 I call bullshit. Vertical Blue Lines are way up on InTrade.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 07, 2010 10:25 AM (TMNPc)

32
You know who Alan Grayson looks like?

Remember Earl Sinclair from the stupid show DINOSAURS? Yeah, him.

Posted by: i got a gal in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at September 07, 2010 10:26 AM (uFokq)

33 #32 He looks like an uglier version of Vincent D'Ofrio... well like EdgarSuitAlien in MIB....

Posted by: CAC at September 07, 2010 10:27 AM (lV4Fs)

34 I saw on RCP that Cohen is starting to call for the nut dust for Zero's crab lice. Heh.

Posted by: maddogg at September 07, 2010 10:27 AM (OlN4e)

35 No, the best was when Jim Everett punched Rome's face in. That was great.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOVxitMy47c

Posted by: CUS at September 07, 2010 10:28 AM (wOGfT)

36
speaking of funny names...

JOE HECK (R) is challenging Dina Titus for Nevada's 03 seat.

Posted by: i got a gal in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at September 07, 2010 10:31 AM (uFokq)

37
I call bullshit. Vertical Blue Lines are way up on InTrade.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 07, 2010 02:25 PM (TMNPc)

Dance, my monkey! Dance!

Posted by: In before the troll, lameassed meme wrangler at September 07, 2010 10:31 AM (P9+0W)

38 I hope my little pup hides under the bed for a while, because for some reason I have this strong urge to kick a dog in the ribs, you know? Weird.

Posted by: sherlock at September 07, 2010 10:32 AM (fKPuo)

39 O/T: A caller to Rush said he immediately recognized the comment "they talk about me like I'm a dog" as a lyric from a jimi hendrix song: "EVERYDAY IN THE WEEK I'M IN A DIFFERENT CITY
IF I STAY TOO LONG PEOPLE TRY TO PULL ME DOWN
THEY TALK ABOUT ME LIKE A DOG
TALKIN' ABOUT THE CLOTHES I WEAR
BUT THEY DON'T REALIZE THEY'RE THE ONES WHO'S SQUARE"

Posted by: , at September 07, 2010 10:32 AM (p302b)

Is'nt this just wishcasting on our side?

Seriously... like Vic says, and it's been repeated here many times, "you can make a simulation say whatever you want it to say"

Sorry, I want this to be true just like every moron here; but if simulations are'nt good for predicting global warmeningBOO!!! (which they are not) then they are'nt good for predicting elections.

Both have too many variables. No one and no thing can predict the future.

Posted by: theBman at September 07, 2010 10:34 AM (/vN7m)

41 "EVERYDAY IN THE WEEK I'M IN A DIFFERENT CITY IF I STAY TOO LONG PEOPLE TRY TO PULL ME DOWN THEY TALK ABOUT ME LIKE A DOG TALKIN' ABOUT THE CLOTHES I WEAR BUT THEY DON'T REALIZE THEY'RE THE ONES WHO'S SQUARE" How long until this ends up on an Oval Office rug?

Posted by: Lincolntf at September 07, 2010 10:34 AM (hV/FZ)

42 Can't even scrub my back in the shower without thinking about the election anymore.

Posted by: Jean at September 07, 2010 10:35 AM (Hx1qz)

43 36 No, the best was when Jim Everett punched Rome's face in. That was great.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dOVxitMy47c

Posted by: CUS at September 07, 2010 02:28 PM (wOGfT)

--I was just talking radio, but yeah, the "Chris" Everett moment was . . . epic.

Posted by: logprof at September 07, 2010 10:37 AM (BP6Z1)

44 37 So, um, are these computer simulations as accurate as Madden 11?

Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 02:29 PM (5I8G0)

Madden b trippin

Posted by: Laurence Maroney's Tweet at September 07, 2010 10:38 AM (BP6Z1)

45 So, um, are these computer simulations as accurate as Madden 11?

Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 02:29 PM (5I8G0)

Geez, CDR M! Let's hope that they don't contain the "Madden Curse" while we're at it!

Posted by: runningrn at September 07, 2010 10:38 AM (8GYOu)

46 There is some weird shit going on with some of the polls. In VA-5, Hurt is up by 26 freaking points, but RCP and Roth. et all are listing it as an R lean at best, mostly a toss-up. WTF?

Posted by: Filly at September 07, 2010 10:38 AM (AloFK)

47 Computer simulations are the end-all for knowledge. If the computer says it, it must be so!

Posted by: Michael Mann et al at September 07, 2010 10:39 AM (9hSKh)

"EVERYDAY IN THE WEEK I'M IN A DIFFERENT CITY
IF I STAY TOO LONG PEOPLE TRY TO PULL ME DOWN
THEY TALK ABOUT ME LIKE A DOG
TALKIN' ABOUT THE CLOTHES I WEAR
BUT THEY DON'T REALIZE THEY'RE THE ONES WHO'S SQUARE"

How long until this ends up on an Oval Office rug?

If they win the 2010 elections, he'll have a new rug made for the oval office with this quote and attribute the source as himself.

Posted by: runningrn at September 07, 2010 10:40 AM (8GYOu)

49 These simulations are about as accurate as Ace's fantasies about how his pick up lines will work while staring at a hot girl across the bar.

Posted by: Mr Pink at September 07, 2010 10:40 AM (5cHfe)

50 Computers only do calculations. If you put shit into it, what you get out tends to stink.

Posted by: maddogg at September 07, 2010 10:40 AM (OlN4e)

51 Filly - I think that it is because Perriello has $2M in the bank to spend yet, and $2M buys you a lot of airtime in that media market.

Posted by: Jean at September 07, 2010 10:41 AM (u6OBh)

52 I got a call from a pollster here in Colorado a couple of weeks ago. He asked, "would you be more or less likely to support a candidate that supported Barack Obama's health care initiative?" At least I think it was health care.

I responded that I was absolutely opposed to everything Obama stands for. They guy said, "Well, I guess that takes care of the rest of my questions."

Ha.

Posted by: doug at September 07, 2010 10:41 AM (MQlzc)

53 A little off topic but King Richard Daley just announced that he won't run for re-election. I thought he'd die in office like his father or in da sout' side accent his fadder

Posted by: TheQuietMan at September 07, 2010 10:41 AM (1Jaio)

54 Zero claims fish live in the sea, so I tend to be skeptical......

Posted by: maddogg at September 07, 2010 10:42 AM (OlN4e)

55 I predict that President Toonces will say something incredibly stupid and insulting on 9/11. Maybe he will just play golf since it's Saturday.

That will only make the crushing defeat that much better.

Posted by: mpfs at September 07, 2010 10:43 AM (iYbLN)

56 Zero claims fish live in the sea, so I tend to be skeptical......

Posted by: maddogg at September 07, 2010 02:42 PM (OlN4e)

He's a city guy he don't know

Posted by: walking catfish at September 07, 2010 10:44 AM (fwSHf)

57 The Â“stimulusÂ” was the economic equivalent of Â“singing to the choir.Â” In their eagerness to make their friends happy, the Democrats in Congress forgot to at least please some of the other folks.

Posted by: Neo at September 07, 2010 10:45 AM (tE8FB)

58 A little off topic but King Richard Daley just announced that he won't run for re-election.

He was polling close to 30% approval, so I am not surprised.

http://tinyurl.com/2cr8p4x

Posted by: CUS at September 07, 2010 10:46 AM (wOGfT)

Zogby had a scale on it's last survery where you get to take the cursor and run it up and down for Obama. I, of course, ran it all the way down.

During the last election, I was called by the group who was checking on election "knowledge". After I explained that Tina Fey said the thing about Russia and not Sarah, she exclaimed that I knew more than anyone she had called.

Morons are brillant.

Posted by: dagny at September 07, 2010 10:46 AM (wEZdg)

60 #62 Morons are brillant.

Seems like a paradox, but this is true.

Posted by: Michael Mann et al at September 07, 2010 10:47 AM (9hSKh)

61 The People who did the prediction were pretty close in 2006 prediction also.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at September 07, 2010 10:47 AM (tf9Ne)

62 Curse you yet again, runningrn!

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 07, 2010 10:47 AM (9hSKh)

63 I won't be able to eat anything like an entire week before Election Day lest I chunder it back up. I might just have to do what I did in the 4th quarter of the Bengals '89 Super Bowl and go sit with my mother and watch a tape of State Fair.

Then again, that didn't turn out too well....

Posted by: Filly at September 07, 2010 10:47 AM (AloFK)

64 >>>Is'nt this just wishcasting on our side? >>>Seriously... like Vic says, and it's been repeated here many times, "you can make a simulation say whatever you want it to say" Not really. Global warming models are bullshit because the simulation is entirely speculative -- this has never happened before, but they postulate it will, so they load up assumptions advancing that postulate. They actually have no previous record to go by. Elections are oft-repeated phenomena. We have lots of data. We can look at polls and actual vote-share results from the past 35, maybe 40 elections (whenever Gallup began). It's not just pure speculation. No model can take into account all variables, of course; there is no "psychohistory" yet. But yes, we have a long record of different inputs -- economic numbers, partisan split, partisan leaning, enthusiasm, etc. -- and these can be analyzed and offer at least a decent prediction about final vote share.

Posted by: ace at September 07, 2010 10:47 AM (QbA6l)

65 Barky is going to the Pentagon where he isn't wanted and is sending the daughter of the house of Duras to NYC. I guess the sheriff gets the field in Pa. for 9/11

Posted by: dagny at September 07, 2010 10:47 AM (wEZdg)

66 Ah yes, another culturally mind expanding event courtesy of Michelle Antoinette. Cause they are all about the jobs and the economy. 'Cause Michelle is their secret weapon for victory.

http://tinyurl.com/28gezvl

Posted by: mpfs at September 07, 2010 10:48 AM (iYbLN)

67 Do I have to point out that if the average person were to have a full-frontal lobotomy that they would still be rejected for most PhD programs in political science for being "too smart" and "making the rest of us look bad".

And political science isn't.

Posted by: AmishDude at September 07, 2010 10:48 AM (T0NGe)

68 Note that even the worst sorts of polls -- like the MFM's heavily-skewed ones -- are always at least BALLPARK accurate. I mean, they are not off by more than five or eight points -- yeah, that sucks, but it's in the neighborhood, isn't it?

Posted by: ace at September 07, 2010 10:49 AM (QbA6l)

You can come to my basement and watch star trek with me.

Posted by: dagny at September 07, 2010 10:50 AM (wEZdg)

70 71 As a poli sci major I agree with you.

Posted by: Mr Pink at September 07, 2010 10:50 AM (5cHfe)

71 Fiorina leads 47/42 before leaners are added, meaning a lot of Boxer's support is iffy. Fortunately, Whitman and Fiorina will lend voting support for the congressional races as well.

Posted by: JonathanEllis at September 07, 2010 10:51 AM (BdzEV)

72
64
I really should read Ace's posts more carefully to limit my posting what is already known.

Posted by: Buzzsaw at September 07, 2010 10:51 AM (tf9Ne)

73 I've got North Korean T. V. on in the office and they are in full panic mode. Bob Shrumm even threw his hands up.

Posted by: robtr at September 07, 2010 10:51 AM (fwSHf)

74 I've been a wave skeptic, but these polls make me want to buy pudding and malt liquor futures...

Posted by: Investment Advice for Morons at September 07, 2010 10:51 AM (ejkmt)

75 5 2 We also predict that the earth will burn to a cinder by 2015.

Your predictions are off by 3 years.

Posted by: The Mayans at September 07, 2010 02:11 PM (9hSKh)

You crazy Mayans, one minute your foretelling doom on the skulls of your sacrifices, the next you're worshipping a head of cabbage named Ralph.

Posted by: Unclefacts, AoSHQ Pro Debate Team, Bacon Raconteur at September 07, 2010 10:52 AM (eCAn3)

76 The long term natural power base of conservatism is the Senate; most states are Red States - the Senate is apportioned 2 Senators to each STATE . That gives us a natural conservative majority in the Senate. Under NO circumstances are Red State Donkeys and RINOS acceptable in the Senate. All we have to do is hold that natural base and the Liberal agenda is dead in the water forever. If we fail to do that WE are dead in the water. This strategy is the only way to save the country and drive a stake through the Progressive/Marxist's heart.

Every Election Strategy not based on holding the Red State Senate is a guaranteed LOSER , and will result in the long term destruction of the country!

I am going to keep repeating this until it echoes in the Conservative Blogosphere and Conservatives actually follow this strategy.

Posted by: An Observation at September 07, 2010 10:52 AM (ylhEn)

77 Do I have to point out that if the average person were to have a full-frontal lobotomy that they would still be rejected for most PhD programs in political science for being "too smart" and "making the rest of us look bad".

Heh. One of my super-Marxist poli-sci profs tried to drum me out of the major with consecutive C's. I laughed very hard and sidestepped him by taking classes with only other profs who were only Marxists, not turbopricks. Graduated magna cum laude. fucker.

Posted by: Filly at September 07, 2010 10:52 AM (AloFK)

78 What happened to Jay Cost?

Posted by: Jean at September 07, 2010 10:53 AM (9usBU)

79 During the 08 election, with the preponderance of these stories for the dems chances, my heart kept telling me no way, but my head knew better and the outcome we know.

Over and over we are seeing these polls and stories, the red wave is acomin'. Even if various repubs step all over themselves and have to be dragged across the finish line.

At the end of the day, I'll be satisfied to see control of the house and 46 in the senate to have filibuster against rino's and dems. Not thrilled, but satisfied. Based on everything I see, my satisfaction is 100% guaranteed.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at September 07, 2010 10:54 AM (L8kaT)

80 #70 Ah yes, another culturally mind expanding event courtesy of Michelle Antoinette.

I hope to heaven that Michelle Obama isn't going to participate in the "pirouettes, jetes, gravity-defying leaps and maybe even some bumps and grinds" with the dancers...

Or maybe she'll just stick to "jazz hands".

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 07, 2010 10:54 AM (9hSKh)

81 Most of my favorite leftard Democrats remind me of a man walking down the railroad tracks and hearing the train bearing down on him from behind, are too afraid to turn around and look, so they just keep walking....

Posted by: maddogg at September 07, 2010 10:54 AM (OlN4e)

These polls don't have what plants need.

Posted by: gator at September 07, 2010 10:55 AM (aOKEC)

83 @82-Hes at the Weekly Standard now

Posted by: Investment Advice for Morons at September 07, 2010 10:55 AM (ejkmt)

84 68 Barky is going to the Pentagon where he isn't wanted and is sending the daughter of the house of Duras to NYC. I guess the sheriff gets the field in Pa. for 9/11

I would love to see Michelle greeted with people singing "Proud to be an American".

Posted by: AmishDude at September 07, 2010 10:56 AM (T0NGe)

85 Computers do not measure the "human" factor, such as the appeal of Mrs. Obama as I have discussed before. And another thing that this model probably does not anticipate is Obama's popularity with men -- not as a political figure, but as a "guy" who does guy things. Conservatives such as myself are heavily involved in sports, whether as Little League coaches, members of bowling leagues, or mere spectators. Despite my substantial differences with the President's policies, I have always respected his athletic prowess. Whether throwing out the first pitch, practicing bowling or of course basketball, he always seems to be in the mainstream of American pastimes. Recently he has striven to reinvigorate golf, a sport which was sorely in need of a new face after Mr. Wood's unfortunate downfall. So I have a feeling that 51 figure is a bit unrealistic. President Obama is in a sense a team "captain", and nobody loves a "come from behind" nailbiter more than Americans. So I see the Democrats holding the house this time around. Can't win 'em all as I think Yogi Berra said.

Posted by: Average Joe at September 07, 2010 10:56 AM (bN5ZU)

86 I will never forget the last time we took the house, CNN ran "WHAT WENT WRONG?" headlines the entire week. Sorry whiners, maybe you should listen.

Posted by: dagny at September 07, 2010 10:57 AM (wEZdg)

87 73 You can come to my basement and watch star trek with me.

A thousand pardons, madam, if some of us forgo that invitation to a Den of Decadence,

.

_{/I keed.}

Oh, lookie at this.

Chicago Mayor Richard Daley announces he will not run for re-election in 2011 - chicagobreakingnews http://bit.ly/aSajMY

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 07, 2010 10:57 AM (9hSKh)

I hope to heaven that Michelle Obama isn't going to participate in the "pirouettes, jetes, gravity-defying leaps and maybe even some bumps and grinds" with the dancers...

All this talk of Michelle and poles has me excited.

For the election, of course.

Posted by: gator at September 07, 2010 10:57 AM (aOKEC)

89 I saw it wasn't working; it's up now. HuffPo must prevent hotlinking or something.

thanks Ace *mwah*

Posted by: Filly at September 07, 2010 11:00 AM (AloFK)

90 Average Joe, if your humor were any drier somebody would set up a sprinkler on it. (That was a compliment, BTW.)

Posted by: joncelli at September 07, 2010 11:00 AM (RD7QR)

91 My poly sci courses were heavy on voting patterns, demographics, polling (sampling and question writing) and a couple musty old theory courses. A lot of it bordered on a traditional economics background.

Posted by: Jean at September 07, 2010 11:03 AM (Kgk5C)

This shouldn't happen to a dog.

Posted by: Blue Hen at September 07, 2010 02:22 PM (R2fpr)

Barbaric! Barbaric!

Posted by: Zombie Sheets Byrd at September 07, 2010 11:03 AM (mHQ7T)

Posted by: Average Joe at September 07, 2010 02:56 PM (bN5ZU)

Sure, Joe. Nobody gives a fuck about the economy, or how this fucktard is trying to wreck the country, they give a fuck that he plays golf.

I suppose Chairman Mao and Joe Stalin were team captains too. Let me be clear, I don't give a flying rat fuck about his athletic prowess, or lack thereof. Hell, he throws like a girl, at least GWB could clear the plate. On his bicycle he looks like fucking Pee Wee Herman, all he needs are the training wheels.

Posted by: maddogg at September 07, 2010 11:04 AM (OlN4e)

94 Daley is going to challenge Obama in the Primaries!!!

Posted by: Jean at September 07, 2010 11:04 AM (g8OOc)

95 Whoever is socking Average Joe is a comedic genius on the level of Iowahawk.

Posted by: Ian S. at September 07, 2010 11:05 AM (p05LM)

96 Average Joe is one of my heroes.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at September 07, 2010 11:06 AM (TMNPc)

97 My poly sci courses were heavy on voting patterns, demographics, polling (sampling and question writing) and a couple musty old theory courses. A lot of it bordered on a traditional economics background.

So unlike me, you got an actual education. Must have been nice.

Posted by: Filly at September 07, 2010 11:06 AM (AloFK)

98 President Bronzo has what plants need.

Posted by: Lincolntf at September 07, 2010 11:07 AM (hV/FZ)

99 Joncelli, thank you for the compliment. I wasn't sure if everyone would find humor in my "team captain" analogy but I figured I would continue with the whole sports theme since that's what I was focused on. I guess I should also thank whoever said I reminded them of a community college student yesterday. In fact, I only have a G.E.D. but many people have said that they were surprised I was not a college man and some even assumed I had a degree. And these are people who went to universities themselves.

Posted by: Average Joe at September 07, 2010 11:08 AM (bN5ZU)

100 All you cheeseheads - get out and vote next Tuesday. Twice. I know where you live.

Posted by: Ron Johnson's Mom at September 07, 2010 11:13 AM (KDX07)

101

Who do they poll? I've never gotten a call from a pollster. Then again, thanks to caller ID, if I don't recognize the number I never answer. As the RNC has been discovering over the past months.

Posted by: Ombudsman at September 07, 2010 02:22 PM (c1oyg)

My mother-in-law got a call from a Rasmussen pollster last night. Look for Obama, "Ma'am" Boxer, and "Moonbeam" Brown to drop a few more points in their next poll. ;-)

Posted by: Mary in LA at September 07, 2010 11:22 AM (NGf/6)

102 Oops! Left my name link in. That link was to the story of the EPA backing off the proposed ban on lead in ammunition. "They bravely ran away..."

Posted by: Mary in LA at September 07, 2010 11:24 AM (NGf/6)

103 maddog, I am also a Christian family man who finds verbiage such as yours offputting. The reason I have been wary of going to Tea Parties is that I read on the conservative Dish blog by Mr. A. Sullivan that I might be confronted by a certain level of vulgarity. I was not saying that sports are everything, just that they touch a common nerve. In such trying times we need some relief from the daily grind. All work and no play etc.

Posted by: Average Joe at September 07, 2010 11:28 AM (bN5ZU)

104

Chicago Mayor Richard Daley announces he will not run for re-election in 2011 - chicagobreakingnews http://bit.ly/aSajMY

I always love it when tyrants fall.

Posted by: Ken at September 07, 2010 11:29 AM (ftfkn)

105 Vic's computer says between 40 and 50 in the House and between 5 and 8 in the Senate.

That must be right because my computer added it to this post!

Posted by: Vic at September 07, 2010 11:31 AM (/jbAw)

106

Chicago Mayor Richard Daley announces he will not run for re-election in 2011 - chicagobreakingnews http://bit.ly/aSajMY

Good riddance to bad rubbish, and he must realize how bad he makes Chicago look. "Chicago's out? CHICAGO'S OUT?"

Posted by: Zombie Sheets Byrd at September 07, 2010 11:33 AM (mHQ7T)

107 Sock off like a prom dress and bouncing like titties.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at September 07, 2010 11:34 AM (mHQ7T)

108 No way is Daley getting out of politics. Look for a Gov or Sen run in the near future.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 07, 2010 11:36 AM (P9+0W)

109 108 maddog, I am also a Christian family man who finds verbiage such as yours offputting. The reason I have been wary of going to Tea Parties is that I read on the conservative Dish blog by Mr. A. Sullivan that I might be confronted by a certain level of vulgarity.

I was not saying that sports are everything, just that they touch a common nerve. In such trying times we need some relief from the daily grind. All work and no play etc.

Posted by: Average Joe at September 07, 2010 03:28 PM (bN5ZU)

Sorry Joe. That shit only works on me once.

Posted by: maddogg at September 07, 2010 11:38 AM (OlN4e)

110 ace: "They actually have no previous record to go by..."

True in more ways than one. You know who also didn't have a record to go by because the MFM did its level best not to reveal the thin veneer of a record Obama wore? American voters. See, just running for the President makes one qualified for the Presidency. It's just so painfully obvious now.

Well, now Obama has a previous record and America found it. That right there is a) the most powerful incentive American voters have to act more appropriately, and b) the biggest given pollsters have to recalibrating their predictions.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at September 07, 2010 11:57 AM (swuwV)

111 That chart is confusing. It implies that the most likely outcome is that the democrats win ~210 seats-- 8 short of the amount needed for break-even. That would suggest a 16 seat Republican gain as the most likely outcome.

Posted by: JackT at September 07, 2010 12:45 PM (ga+7c)

112

If Mark Kirk wants to win the "Obama" US Senate seat in Illinois, he needs to up his game.

A good starting point would be to find the film clip of Obama talking about his role as a (honorary?) campaign manager for Blago. Obama even says something to the effect of "you betcha" when asked if this is good for Illinois. The interview was on Chicago Tonight--saw the clip a coupla years ago--it's out there but I don't have the google-fu to find it...

Also, Kirk should explain that his Cap-n-Trade vote, while tailored to the north-shore enviros is certainly NOT what is needed for the rest of Illinois and the country.

Posted by: TheThinMan at September 07, 2010 01:11 PM (W3XUk)

113 Bank on it, Morons.

Posted by: HAL 9000 at September 07, 2010 02:27 PM (ASdeo)

114 As long as its not a "global warming" model I may listen and "hope for change"

Posted by: RiverRat at September 07, 2010 04:15 PM (Jwh9R)

115

www.iloveinwatch.com

Posted by: kevin117 at September 09, 2010 06:25 PM (fj5ie)

116 This site is very beautiful and I had a really great site I would suggest you check in and thank this site has what i call

Posted by: porno at February 02, 2011 02:07 AM (+vbic)

Hide Comments | Add Comment | Refresh | Top

Comments are disabled. Post is locked.