October 22, 2010

Contest: Election 2010 Official Entries Thread
— Gabriel Malor

I announced the contest on Sunday, now it's time for your official predictions. Entries are due by TODAY, October 22 at 8pm Eastern.

First Contest: House of Representatives
How many seats will the GOP gain (net) in the House?

Whoever gets it right on the dot or closest without going over (hey, it worked for Bob Barker) wins.

Second Contest: Senate
Predict the outcome in the following eleven senate races, which we've given particular attention to here at the HQ:

AK
CA
CT
DE
FL
IL
NV
PA
WA
WI
WV

Whoever gets the most right wins.

Tiebreaker:
The tiebreaker for both contests will be a prediction of the percentages in the Florida Rubio-Crist-Meek race.

Entries are due by TODAY, October 22 at 8pm Eastern. (I extended the deadline from what I thought it'd be because I forgot to put this post up last night. I was assembling a bed. Sleeping on a bed is real good.)

You can post your Official Predictions in the comments to this thread OR, if you'd rather, you can email me your entry any time before the deadline at "gabriel.malor" at gmail. I've already got a bunch of entries by email -- including from the cob-loggers, who made uninspiring guesses -- no need to resend it if you already did, but you can send me your tiebreaker prediction if you like.

I'll tally the results and announce the winners after the recounts are done.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 03:12 AM | Comments (177)
Post contains 252 words, total size 2 kb.

1 I already emailed you my predictions.



House: 74 seats gained (net)

AK (R-hold) - Miller: 42; Milkooski: 24; Adams: 34
CA (R-gain) - Fiorina: 50; Boxer: 48
CT (D-hold) - McMahon: 47; Dick: 51
DE (R-gain) -  O'Donnell: 49; Bearded Marxist: 47
FL (R-hold) -  Rubio: 47; Oompa Loompa: 28; Meek: 24
IL (R-gain) - Kirk: 52; Mobster: 48
NV R-gain) - Angle: 53; Reid: 47
PA (R gain) - Toomey: 54; Sestak: 45
WA (R gain) - Rossi: 51; Dumb senator: 49
WI (R gain)  -    Johnson: 53         Feingold: 44
WV(R gain)  -   Rease: 51            Right-wing extremist: 47


Over, GOP gains 12 seats (AR, CA, CO, IN, ND, IL, NV, WI,  WA, DE, PA, WV)

Posted by: JC at October 22, 2010 03:23 AM (7PT3B)

2 House +70

AK - R
CA - R
CT - R
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - R
WI - D
WV - R

Posted by: StrategicCorporalUSMC at October 22, 2010 03:25 AM (jfuzI)

3 House: 48 seats.

Senate:

Alaska -- Miller
California -- Boxer
Connecticut -- Blumenthal
Deleware -- Coons
Florida -- Rubio
Illinois -- Mob Banker
Nevada -- Angle
Pennsylvani -- Toomey
Washington -- Murray
Wiscosnin -- Johnson
West Virginia -- Raese

Florida percentages: Rubio 44%, Crist 32%, Meek 23%

Posted by: Benson at October 22, 2010 03:31 AM (qzcNU)

4 House: +61 Senate-losers in bold: AK CA CT DE FL IL NV PA WA WI WV I'm not as sanguine as many about "the most deliberative body".

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 22, 2010 03:36 AM (TAzxj)

5 Crap! My formatting is all screwed up this AM. House +61 Senate we lose CA, CT, DE, IL, WA, and WV

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 22, 2010 03:38 AM (TAzxj)

6

 House +59

AK - R
CA - D
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - D
NV - R!!!!!!
PA - R
WA - D
WI - R
WV - R

 Rubio: 51; Orange Head: 31; Meek: 18

Posted by: Smokey VanSturm at October 22, 2010 03:43 AM (xg1eR)

7 Tie: Rubio 47 Crist 28 Meek 25

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 22, 2010 03:43 AM (TAzxj)

8 Whoever gets it right on the dot or closest without going over (hey, it worked for Bob Barker) wins.

--------------------

That's dumb. It encourages artificial lowballing.

Anyhoodles -

63 seats.

AK - Miller. Writin's hard.
CA - Boxer. Too entrenched, too Cali.
CT - Blumenthal. CT voters don't care about stolen valor, and wrestling is soooo declasse.
DE - Coons. No comment
FL - Rubio. Como se dice "McDreamy?"
IL - Giannoulias. Zombies break late for the Illinois Dem.
NV - Reid. Perception is "incompetent" vs "nuts." Incompetence wins.
PA - Toomey. Fool them thrice, shame on them.
WA - Murray. She's the poster girl for vapid Washington liberal pussies.
WI - Johnson. Only the Midwest is reliably sane.
WV - Manchin. The rifle trick worked.

Rubio - 44.6
Crist - 30
Meek - 20.2

Posted by: schizuki at October 22, 2010 03:45 AM (M+lbD)

9 House + 83

Senate
Alaska -- Miller
California -- Fiorina
Connecticut -- McMahon
Deleware -- Coons
Florida -- Rubio
Illinois -- Kirk
Nevada -- Angle
Pennsylvania -- Toomey
Washington -- Rossi
Wiscosnin -- Johnson
West Virginia -- Raese

Florida Percentages
Rubio 44%, Crist 33%, Meek 23%

Posted by: ya2daup at October 22, 2010 03:47 AM (yRrAd)

10 Where is Greg? Stop. The world wonders. Stop.

Posted by: ya2daup at October 22, 2010 03:49 AM (yRrAd)

11 Great article by Sean Trend about how polls may be understating GOP support by 3-5%.

Posted by: JC at October 22, 2010 03:54 AM (7PT3B)

12 There is absolutely no way WV voters will send a democratic senator to Washington this year.

Posted by: JC at October 22, 2010 03:59 AM (7PT3B)

13 First Contest: House of Representatives How many seats will the GOP gain (net) in the House? 62 Second Contest: Senate Predict the outcome in the following eleven senate races, which we've given particular attention to here at the HQ: AK - Miller CA - Boxer CT - Blumenthal DE - Coons FL - Rubio IL - Kirk NV - Angle PA - Toomey WA - Rossi WI- Johnson WV - Raese Florida: Rubio 42/Crist 30/Meek 26/Other 2

Posted by: Jeff at October 22, 2010 03:59 AM (Zku24)

14

First Contest: House of Representatives
How many seats will the GOP gain (net) in the House?

That one's easy - take the total # "leaning" Republican.  Divide that in half. Take that #, divide in half again.  That will be the maximum possible Republican wins.

The Vote fraud going on today is epic, and much like the Obama Campaign finace fraud, is entirely under the radar.  My little home district here in Virginia has seen a 104% increase in "registrations".  If all are upheld, it will, as will many districts, have more registered voters than adults.

 

Posted by: Jess at October 22, 2010 03:59 AM (eqsrg)

15 House: 83 seat gain.

Senate:

AK--R (Miller, not Cokey Mucokerson)
CA--R
CT--D
DE--D
FL--R
IL--R
NV--R
PA--R
WA--D
WI--R
WV--R

Florida: Rubio 50, Crist 31, Meek 19


Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at October 22, 2010 04:01 AM (rNJC9)

16 House - 86  (I'm fndr. of MO's largest TP.  Muuuuuuch more devastating tsunami than you folks think; in fact I think I'm low-balling it.  Unofficially, I think it will be 105.)

AK-R
CA-R
CT-D
DE-D
FL-R
IL-R
NV-R
PA-R
WA-R
WI-R
WV-R

Rubio - 49
Orange - 26
Meek - 25.

Posted by: Sukie Tawdry at October 22, 2010 04:08 AM (jbCcb)

17 House - 95 seat gain. AK--R CA--R CT--R DE--R FL--R IL--R NV--R PA--R WA--D WI--R WV--R Florida: Rubio 58, Meek 22, Crist 20 All independents decide to try the tea.

Posted by: HankF at October 22, 2010 04:12 AM (sXiOv)

18 Lest you think optimism has jumped the shark of cockiness, remember, I once came in second in a haiku contest. So I got that going for me. Which is nice.

Posted by: HankF at October 22, 2010 04:15 AM (sXiOv)

19

House - 67 seats gained.

AK - Leeza McCloskey (sorry folks, the media's in full-destroy mode on Miller)
CA - R
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - R
WI - R
WV - R

And DioGuardi in New York gets within four.

Rubio 52, Chuckles 31, Nepot 15, Others 2

Posted by: Lou at October 22, 2010 04:17 AM (IH3P2)

20 House: 66 seats

AK - Miller
CA - D
CT - D
DE - D
FL - Rubio
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - D
WI - R
WV - R

Rubio 48%
Crist 29%
Meek 23%

Posted by: Voltaires Crack at October 22, 2010 04:18 AM (TZI/v)

21 House - net 72 seat gain for the Republicans

AK - Miller
CA - Fiorina
CT - Blumenthal
DE - Coons
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Rossi
WI - Johnson
WV - Raese

Rubio 51, Crist 27, Meek 22

Posted by: Lyford at October 22, 2010 04:18 AM (NjrLo)

22

GOP gain (net) in the House: +81

Senate:

AK - R
CA - R
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - D
WI - R
WV - R

Tiebreaker: Rubio 48, Crist 32, Meek 18

Posted by: Easycure at October 22, 2010 04:20 AM (FpJgM)

23

House +65

AK - Miller
CA - Boxer
CT - Blumenthol
DE - Coons
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Murray
WI - Johnson
WV - Raese

FL percents: 48% Rubio, 39% Crist, 14% Meek


Posted by: sayyid412 at October 22, 2010 04:21 AM (uGhj2)

24

First Contest: House of Representatives
GOP: +47

Second Contest: Senate

AK - Joe Miller (R)
CA - Babs Boxer (D)
CT - Stolen Valor (D)
DE - Bearded Marxist (D)
FL - Rubio (R)
IL - Mob Bankster (D)
NV - Land Shark Reid, via a few "newly discovered and previously uncounted ballots"  (D)
PA - Toomey (R)
WA - Patty "Osama's cool 'cuz he gives free health care" Murray (D)
WI - Johnson (R)
WV - Raese (R)

Tiebreaker:
Rubio: 44% Crist: 33%  Meek: 21%  Others:  2%

Posted by: Crush Liberalism at October 22, 2010 04:27 AM (8X9tr)

25

51 seats gained by R

AK - D

CA - D

CT - D

DE - D

FL - R

IL - R

NV - R

PA - R

WA - D

WI - R

WV - R

Tie-Breaker: RUBIO 46% / Crist 33% / Meek 21%

Posted by: Henry Hawkins at October 22, 2010 04:28 AM (1neAq)

26 So what does the winner get?

Posted by: HH at October 22, 2010 04:31 AM (6oDXl)

27

House- R gains 69 seats (just because).

AK - R (Miller)
CA - D
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - D
WI - R
WV - R

Rubio - 48, Crist - 29, Meek -23

 

Posted by: The Outlaw in the Heavenly Hall at October 22, 2010 04:32 AM (E0EDC)

28 26 So what does the winner get?


A free subscription to AoSHQ.

Posted by: dogfish at October 22, 2010 04:35 AM (v7fhO)

29 Second place?  TWO subscriptions to AoSHQ.....

Posted by: Barry the Mining Executive at October 22, 2010 04:40 AM (dOOBu)

30

Hey Gabe, you hardly ever post here anymore. I was expecting to see a bunch of DADT posts.

House Seats

48 Republicans

Senate Seats

AK- Republican - Merkowski not Miller
CA - D
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R - Rubio
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - R
WI - R
WV - R

 

Tie Breaker

Rubio 46%

Crist 28%

Meek  26%

Posted by: Ben at October 22, 2010 04:41 AM (wuv1c)

31 House: 63 seats.

Senate:

AK: R (Miller)
CA: D (Ma'am)
CT: D (War Hero)
DE: D (Bearded Marxist)
FL: R (Rubio)
IL: R (Kirk)
NV: R (Angle)
PA: R (Toomey)
WA: D (Sen Sneaker)
WI: R (Johnson)
WV: D (Manchild)

Florida percentages:
Rubio 44%
Turncoat 28%
Meek 28%

Posted by: GulfCoastTider at October 22, 2010 04:41 AM (8gT0e)

32

Second place?  TWO subscriptions to AoSHQ.....

Uh Oh, not liking the looks of this. Third place mean ace comes and stays at your place for a week?

Posted by: HH at October 22, 2010 04:43 AM (6oDXl)

33

House of Representatives:  R+68

Senate

AK: Miller (R)
CA: Boxer (D)
CT: Blumenthal (D)
DE: Coons (D)
FL: Rubio (R)
IL: Kirk (R)
NV: Angle (R)
PA: Toomey (R)
WA: Rossi (R)
WI: Johnson (R)
WV: Raese (sp?) (R)

The ones that I think could go either way are California and Washington. I see the situation as analagous to the campaigns in Tennessee and Virginia in '06 -- when the Dem in Virginia was up, he was down in Tennessee, when the Dem in Tennessee gained, the Dem in Virginia started slipping. So I wouldn't be surprised if Murray ekes out a win against Rossi but Fiorina takes down Boxer, but for now I think Washington is the more likely pickup.

Oh, and that means GOP Senate control 51-49.

Posted by: Sean P at October 22, 2010 04:43 AM (Ch+4z)

34 I want to thank all y'all for playing and making this look like a challenge.  Whoever duplicates my predictions is a fucking genius.

Posted by: GulfCoastTider at October 22, 2010 04:45 AM (8gT0e)

35 House: +87

Senate:
AK: R (Miller)
CA: R Fiorina
CT: D Blumenthal
DE: D Coons
FL: R (Rubio)
IL: R (Kirk)
NV: R (Angle)
PA: R (Toomey)
WA: R (Rossi)
WI: R (Johnson)
WV: R (Raese)

Rubio 45, Crist 30, Meeks 25

Posted by: Stefan at October 22, 2010 04:46 AM (586Pr)

36 House: +47

Senate: +6 

Alaska -- R
California -- D
Connecticut -- D
Deleware -- D
Florida -- R
Illinois -- D
Nevada -- R
Pennsylvani -- R
Washington -- D
Wiscosnin -- R
West Virginia -- R

Florida: Rubio 42%, Crist 35%, Meek 23%

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at October 22, 2010 04:48 AM (SCcgT)

37

House +69

 

AK - R
CA - D
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - D
WI - R
WV - R

Rubio 46%, Crist 28%, Meeks 26%

Posted by: Dave in Texas at October 22, 2010 05:00 AM (cJlBC)

38 House +69

AK - Miller
CA - Fiorina
CT - Blumenthal
DE - Coons
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Murray
WI - Johnson
WV - Manchin

Florida - Rubio 45%, Crist 31%, Meek 22%

Posted by: John Galt at October 22, 2010 05:01 AM (F/4zf)

39 + 100 AK - Miller CA - Carly CT - McMahon DE - Coons by only 5 FL - Rubio IL - Kirk NV - Reid PA - Toomey WA - Rossi WI - Johnson WV - Reas Rubio - 45 Crist - 25 Meek -20

Posted by: Jean at October 22, 2010 05:09 AM (L2+HZ)

40

House of Representatives + 54

Unfortunately, Barney Frank will be re-elected, as will Steny Hoyer, Charlie Rangel, and the useless waste of flesh Popaditch is running against. Joseph Cao will be out, the Delaware at large seat will be lost, But Charles Djou will hold on in Hawaii.

Senate
AK - Miller Time
CA -  The Marxist Dingbat
CT - Sue 'em All Blumenthal
DE -  Bald Marxist
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey, can you hear me?
WA - Dingbat in Tennis Shoes
WI - Ron's Johnson
WV - Raese to the top

Whoever gets the most right wins.

Tiebreaker:
Rubio 47, Crist 32, Meek 21

Posted by: Gregory of Yardale at October 22, 2010 05:10 AM (PLvLS)

41 HOUSE: 91!
SENATE:  All but DE goes R; I previously had all but WA(emailed GM), but I am switching them. 


Posted by: ParisParamus at October 22, 2010 05:10 AM (gMzAL)

42

GOP +65 House Seats

AK - Miller (R)
CA- Fiorina - (R)
CT - Dick (D)
DE - The Pet (D)
FL - MARCO! RUBIO! (R)
IL - Kirk (R)
NV - Angle (R)
PA - Toomey (R)
WA - Rossi (R)
WI - Johnson (R)
WV - Rease (R)

Florida Tie-Breaker

MARCO! RUBIO! - 48%, Orange Quisp - 25%, Meek - 25%

Posted by: JCinQC at October 22, 2010 05:11 AM (EKVH2)

43 House +77

AK - R
CA - R
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - R
WI - R
WV - R

Rubio 49%, Crist 25%, Meeks 26%


Posted by: Pavel at October 22, 2010 05:14 AM (r6CCu)

44

House of Representatives: GOP +2, because there is no wave.

Senate:
AK: Murkowski is surging
CA: Boxer is surging

CT: Blumenthal is surging
DE: Coons is surging
FL: Crist is surging
IL: Giannoulis is surging
NV: Reid is surging
PA: Sestak is surging
WA: Murray is surging
WI: Feingold is surging
WV: Manchin is surging ... in my pants.


Posted by: The Other Greg at October 22, 2010 05:14 AM (PLvLS)

45

 

House 93

AK Miller
CA Fiorino
CT Blumenthal
DE Coons
FL Rubiio
IL Kirk
NV Angle
PA Toomey
WA Rossi
WI Johnson
WV Raes

Posted by: Joe at October 22, 2010 05:15 AM (HZFFJ)

46  Crap! Rubio 45 Crist 31 Meeks 24

Posted by: Joe at October 22, 2010 05:16 AM (HZFFJ)

47

First Contest: House of Representatives
How many seats will the GOP gain (net) in the House? 72

Second Contest: Senate
AK - Miller-R
CA - Fiorina-R
CT - Blumenthal-D
DE - Coons-D
FL - Rubio-R
IL - Kirk-R
NV - Angle-R
PA - Toomey-R
WA - Murray-D
WI - Johnson-R
WV - Raese-R

Tiebreaker:
 Rubio: 50-Crist: 28-Meek: 22

Posted by: OwenKellogg at October 22, 2010 05:19 AM (rfZbE)

48 House of Representatives: 

+76


Senate:

AK - R
CA - R
CT - R
DE - D
FL - R
IL - D
NV - R  Goodbye Harry, you miserable piece of shit.
PA - R
WA - D
WI - R
WV - R


American's Wang:

Rubio: 49%  Meek 28%  Crist 22%

Win or lose this contest, I think I would be most happy to see Ried, Boxer, Pelosi, Frank, and Titus lose their jobs.  And Waxman get hit by a bus.

Posted by: Original Mikey at October 22, 2010 05:22 AM (dOatv)

49

 I e-mailed them earlier, but then I realized i had almost the exact same ones as Ace. made me feel all icky.

House: 82 seats.

AK: Miller
CA: Fiorina
CT: McMahon
DE: Coons
FL: Rubio
IL: Kirk
NV: Reid
PA: Toomey
WA: Rossi
WI: Johnson
WV: Raese

Somehow I have a bad feeling about fraud in Nevada, and DE is DE. Aside from those, sweep the board.

Posted by: Francase at October 22, 2010 05:22 AM (tf9Ne)

50 House: +72

They will either win the House big or not win control at all.

Senate:
AK - R (barely beating Crybaby Lisa)
CA - D (Californians ARE that stupid.)
CT - R
DE - D (but close)
FL - R (not close)
IL - R
NV - R (not close)
PA - R (by a hair)
WA - D (Dems will figure a way to steal one again.)
WI - R
WV - R

Posted by: davidingeorgia at October 22, 2010 05:23 AM (JsT3z)

51

I would like to point out two things, for all the love O' Donnell gets here, only two people picked her to win.

And I am the only person picking Merky to win.

What are Ace and the co bloggers picks? I see DiT's are here.

 

Also we need a better prize.

How about winner gets to request a thread subject of their choosing which Ace or one of the Co-Bloggers has to write about.

 

Posted by: Ben at October 22, 2010 05:27 AM (wuv1c)

52

House:  R+62

 

AK - Miller
CA - Fiorino
CT - McMahon
DE - Coons
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Rossi
WI - Johnson
WV - Raese

Tiebreaker:

Rubio 51, Crist 28, Meek 21

Posted by: hmfearny at October 22, 2010 05:28 AM (m30Zr)

53

There are some really, really puddinglicious guesses here.

I lowballed in my email, but I'm a worthless eeyore-ite.  Here's to hoping that someone here (people are really guessing plus seventies/eighties??? Really?) is a lot closer to the truth!

Posted by: Abby Adams at October 22, 2010 05:29 AM (pLTLS)

54 House: +82 R Senate: AK - R CA - D (damn) CT - D DE - D FL - R IL - R NV - R (only after court challenge) PA - R WA - D (damn) WI - R WV - R Tiebreaker: Rubio 48 Crist 27 Meek 25

Posted by: Steve White at October 22, 2010 05:30 AM (5OLJF)

55 House +72 AK - R CA - R CT - R DE - D FL - R IL - R NV - R PA - R WA - R WI - R WV - D

Posted by: jerky at October 22, 2010 05:30 AM (g2qqp)

56

Sorry about stealing your template, but IÂ’m too lazy to make my own. 

 

House: 92 seats gained (net)

AK (R-hold) - Miller: 56; Milkooski: 12; Adams: 32
CA (R-gain) - Fiorina: 51; Boxer: 47
CT (R-gain) - McMahon: 51; Dick: 48
DE (R-gain) -  O'Donnell: 49; Bearded Marxist: 47
FL (R-hold) - 
Rubio: 51; Oompa Loompa: 22; Meek: 24
IL (R-gain) - Kirk: 51; Mobster: 47
NV R-gain) - Angle: 49; Reid: 42
PA (R gain) -
Toomey: 54; Sestak: 45
WA (R gain) - Rossi: 51; Dumb senator: 49
WI (R gain)  -    Johnson: 53         Feingold: 44
WV(R gain)  -   Rease: 51            Right-wing extremist: 47

OH, NC, LA, IN, MO, NH, CO,KY, (R win)

Posted by: jwest at October 22, 2010 05:30 AM (vlXm5)

57

52

Nobody's picking O'Donnell because she'll win like John McCain won in '08.

I picked McInerney to win as well, but not because I want her to.

Posted by: Lou at October 22, 2010 05:31 AM (IH3P2)

58

My prediction? Pain.

 

Lots and lots of sweet Democrat pain.

Posted by: Clubber Lang at October 22, 2010 05:35 AM (YmPwQ)

59 oops Lou, didn't see you picked Murkscozzafava too.

Posted by: Ben at October 22, 2010 05:38 AM (wuv1c)

60

There are some really, really puddinglicious guesses here.

I lowballed in my email, but I'm a worthless eeyore-ite.  Here's to hoping that someone here (people are really guessing plus seventies/eighties??? Really?) is a lot closer to the truth!

it's ok, the 1 dollar bet on Price is Right is often the winner.

Posted by: Ben at October 22, 2010 05:39 AM (wuv1c)

61

Republicans gain 61 House seats.

AK - R
CA - R
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R

PA - R
WA - D

WI - R
WV - R

Posted by: 4thGenerationBuck at October 22, 2010 05:48 AM (QKCF/)

62 First Contest: House of Representatives
How many seats will the GOP gain (net) in the House?

62

Second Contest: Senate
Predict the outcome in the following eleven senate races, which we've given particular attention to here at the HQ:

AK - Miller [my cousins in AK say everyone is lying to the pollsters, and that many up there don't put much stock in the newspapers or opinions from the lower 48. Also, the Ted Stevens post-mortem endorsement was way offensive]
CA - Fiorina
CT - McMahon
DE - O'Donnell [she must be doing better than we think, the Dems are hitting her so hard]
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle [it will be close]
PA - Toomey
WA - Rossi
WI- Johnson
WV - Raese

Florida: Rubio 60/Meek 26/other 14

Posted by: Museisluse at October 22, 2010 05:48 AM (DTfXb)

63

Watch the poll start to swing into line with our projections as the pollsters incorporate the new figures (AP, Pew) on women being in parity between republicans and democrats.

Posted by: jwest at October 22, 2010 05:51 AM (vlXm5)

64

First Contest: House of Representatives
How many seats will the GOP gain (net) in the House?

+ 60

Second Contest: Senate
Predict the outcome in the following eleven senate races, which we've given particular attention to here at the HQ:

AK  -Murkowski
CA - Boxer
CT - McMahon
DE - Coons
FL  - Rubio
IL  -  Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Murray
WI -  Johnson

WV - Raese

 

Tiebreaker:
The tiebreaker for both contests will be a prediction of the percentages in the Florida Rubio-Crist-Meek race

48-35-17

 

Posted by: Trump at October 22, 2010 05:53 AM (M7Awp)

65 GOP gain (net) in the House: +80 [1]

Senate:

AK - R
CA - R
CT - R
DE - D [2]
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - R
WI - R
WV - R

Tiebreaker: Rubio 50, Crist 30, Meek 18


[1] More or less the current RCP call of +56 + the other half of the toss-ups and a few of the leaning Dems to boot.

[2] Rhino hurt girl spite leads to a Dem victory. Sow, reap, whirlwind ect.


Bonus: Upset shocker of the night - HI: Inouye (D) loses in a squeaker.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at October 22, 2010 05:54 AM (Zsy3U)

66 Standin' by it:

House 60.

Senate, color coded for your convenience:
AK - Miller by a nail-biter.
CA - Boxer, by small, possibly manufactured margin
CT - McMahon, in a squeaker
DE - Coons, but by a surprisingly small margin
FL - Rubio, with Crist embarrassing himself in his bunker campaign HQ
IL - Giannoulis, see California above
NV - Angle, barely, after lawyers have their say
PA - Toomey.  Even Pennsylvanians have standards, in the end.
WA - It's Rossi, what do you expect?  Blue, see CA above.
WI - Say goodnight, Russ.  It goes R.
WV - At least he still has the Governor's office, right?

R gets 7 of 11, loses 3 to fraud.

Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at October 22, 2010 05:54 AM (GBXon)

67 House net GOP gain: 60 seats

Senate:

AK - Murkowski
CA - Boxer
CT - Blumenthal
DE - Coons
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Murray
WI - Johnson
WV- Raese

Posted by: JASmius at October 22, 2010 05:56 AM (v+R5I)

68

I emailed earlier but I didn't include the tiebreaker, here it is:

Rubio   49%

Meeks  28%

Crist     22%

Posted by: Sean P at October 22, 2010 05:57 AM (Ch+4z)

69

Since I do projections here for Ace I am NOT submitting as part of the contest so if I "win" go to the next best performer, however here is what I'd say:

First Contest: House of Representatives
75, and at least 1 Blue Dog that survives abandons the Democrats and flips.

Second Contest: Senate
AK Miller
CA Fiorina
CT Blumenthal
DE Coons
FL Rubio, as if this even HAS to be asked
IL Kirk
NV Angle
PA Toomey
WA Rossi.
WI Johnson
WV Raese

The U.S. Senate flips with 10.

Rubio 46% Crist 28% Meeks 26%

Posted by: CAC at October 22, 2010 05:59 AM (lV4Fs)

70 House - 49 Seat Gain

Alaska -- R - Miller
California -- D
Connecticut -- D
Delaware -- D
Florida -- R
Illinois -- R
Nevada -- D
Pennsylvania -- R
Washington -- D
Wisconsin -- R
West Virginia --D

Tiebreaker: Rubio 43.4%,  Crist 31.9%, Wait, there's a Democrat in this race? 24.7%

Posted by: nodakdrunkhobos at October 22, 2010 06:00 AM (AvqN/)

71 First Prediction: House: +46 (You guys are smoking crack if you think it will be more, with all the voter fraud going on) Second Prediction: AK - I (Murkie wins! Alaska loses!) CA - D CT - D DE - D FL - R IL - D (never go against the mob) NV - D PA - D (voter fraud) WA - D WI - R WV - R Third Prediction: Rubio 46/Mr Tanalishish 27/Forgotten Democrat 27

Posted by: Catlady at October 22, 2010 06:03 AM (Qh1k+)

72 House: R+78 AK - R CA - R CT - D DE - D FL - R IL - R NV - R PA - R WA - R WI - R WV - R

Posted by: Conservative Phantom at October 22, 2010 06:04 AM (rPEr/)

73

House- 76 seats

Senate-

AK- Miller

CA- Fiorina

CT-McMahon (but I think there will be a recount)

DE- O'Donnell

Fl- Rubio (and Crist finishes dead last way behind Meeks)

IL- Kirk (and another recount)

NV- Angle

PA-Toomey

WA-Rossi

WI-Johnson

WV- Raese

 

 

 

Posted by: Agnes B. Bullock at October 22, 2010 06:07 AM (SgT91)

74 Oh, yeah...tie breaker: Rubio 44 Meek 29 Crist 27 And as explanation re CT and DE going to Blumenthal and Coons: Sometimes you just can't fix stupid. Sometimes it's just genetic.

Posted by: Conservative Phantom at October 22, 2010 06:11 AM (rPEr/)

75

Posted by: Mallamutt at October 22, 2010 10:10 AM (OWjjx)

Oh ye of little faith in us Californians...

Posted by: CAC at October 22, 2010 06:12 AM (lV4Fs)

76

House: R+69 (awww yeah giggity)

Senate:

AK - R
CA - R
CT - R
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - R
WI - R
WV - R

I guess I'm an optomist.

Tiebreaker:  Rubio 48%, Christ 28%, Meeks 22%

Posted by: Dunkirk at October 22, 2010 06:13 AM (kbHJ6)

77

The shocker of the entire election will be the defeat of Barbara Mikulski in Maryland.  An RCP 21.7 point favorite, she will fall to Eric Wargotz (who?) due to poor turnout of black voters in Prince GeorgeÂ’s County and Baltimore, along with the shift of women and an energized Ehrlich group. This will be the one no one could have predicted.

Posted by: jwest at October 22, 2010 06:19 AM (vlXm5)

78 It may be a few seats high now but I'm sticking with my numbers:

House: 103 seat net gain for Rs.

Senate: Rs win all listed races.

Tie Breaker: Rubio 51% Crist 36% Meek 13%

Despite not hearing much at all from him expect to hear Mitt Romney's name in a lot of acceptance speeches too. He makes a formal announcement for Pres soon  after.

Posted by: Rocks at October 22, 2010 06:19 AM (Q1lie)

79 House +57 Seats (to match the number of states)

AK-R (Miller)
CA-D
CT-D
DE-D
FL-R
IL-D
NV-R
PA-R
WA-D
WI-R
WV-R

Rubio 46% - Agent Orange 32% - Meek 22%

Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 22, 2010 06:20 AM (Ucb8P)

80 +53 flip in the House All the senate elections will go R, except WA and DE. Rubio wins by 59 %

Posted by: Sebastian at October 22, 2010 06:22 AM (nz0Di)

81 Bonus Tie-Tie Breaker: Miller 59% Whoever the Dem is  25% Murky 16%

Posted by: Rocks at October 22, 2010 06:28 AM (Q1lie)

82 First Contest: House of Representatives How many seats will the GOP gain (net) in the House? 74 Second Contest: Senate AK - Miller (R) CA - Fiorina (R) CT - Blumenthal (D) DE - McDonnell (R) FL - Rubio (R) IL - Kirk (R) NV - Angle (R) PA - Toomey (R) WA - Murray (D) WI - Johnson (R) WV - Raese (R) Tiebreaker:  Rubio: 53  Crist:  29  Meek: 18

Posted by: TheRedDianthus at October 22, 2010 06:31 AM (cM91y)

83

House: +47

Senate:

AK - Murkowski (I) (not what I want, but Miller's getting hammered from both sides, and that family IS royalty up there. Also, several recounts.)

CA - Boxer (D)

CT - Blumenthal (D)

DE - Coons (D)

FL - Rubio (R)

IL - Gianoullias (D) (Normally I'd say Kirk, but the fact that it's Illinois means that any small lead Kirk could open up is no match for Mayor Daley turning out the dead vote)

NV - Angle (R)

PA - Sestak (D)

WA - Rossi (R) (gotta plan for at least one upset)

WI - Johnson (R)

WV - Manchin (D)

Hey, keeping hopes kinda low means I can either be right, or pleasantly surprised.

Posted by: Paul at October 22, 2010 06:32 AM (DsHk0)

84

I was originally going to say 65 seats, but what the hell, I'm a Moron after all...

69 house seats.

AK- Miller
CA- Fiorina
CT -McMahon
DE- Bald Yet Bearded Marxist
FL- Rubio
IL- Kirk
NV -Angle
PA- Toomey
WA- Rossi
WI- Johnson
WV- Raese

Rubio 49 Meek 27 Tan Man 24

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 22, 2010 06:33 AM (AZWim)

85

House:  +64 R (Net)

Senate Races:

AK- Miller   
CA - R
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R

PA - R
WA - R
WI- R
WV - R

Tie Breaker

 Rubio - 46, Crist - 3, Meeks - 22

Posted by: Gary Matthew Miller at October 22, 2010 06:34 AM (poqIe)

86
In the House Republicans will gain 73 seats.

AK - R (the real one, not the bitter loser)
CA - D
CT - R
DE - D
FL - R
IL - D
NV - R
PA - R
WA - D
WI - R
WV -R

Marco - 39%, Meek - 23%, Orange thing - 34%

Haha!!!! My predictions will win ALL of the internets!!!!

My over under bet is that the WA results will be complete in less than 6 recounts.

Posted by: Ronsonic at October 22, 2010 06:38 AM (VTm+A)

87

House: R+90

Senate:

AK - Miller by 5, with a Little Lisa temper tamtrum to boot!

CA - Fiorina - Ma'am is OUT? Ma'am is OUT!!!

CT - McMahon will arm-wrestle Dickie out of it in a recount

DE - Bearded Marxist in a squeaker.  Why else would Toonces & Bite Me campaign there and Coons change his tune on tax cuts?

FL - Rubio - my home state redeems itself for the Election 2000 debacle, and Marco also drags Scott over the finish line FTW

IL - Kirk - Brady will help against the Mob Banker's dead voter/thug/$ advantage

NV - Angle - Reid's foot-in-mouth disease is a lot worse than Angle's occasional gaffes

PA - Toomey - I just don't buy the recent desperation polling unless Rasmussen confirms it

WA - Rossi by just above the margin of fraud over the dumbass in sneakers

WI - Johnson - pack those bags, Feingold.  Wish you could take your buddy McCain with you

WV - Raese - even a popular fraud like Manchin can't outpace the wave this year

Tiebreaker:  Rubio 49%, Meeks 27, Orange-Glow 24%

Posted by: Marybeth at October 22, 2010 06:38 AM (hBRoa)

88 AK  R Miller
CA  D Boxer
CT  D WarHero
DE  D Commie
FL  R Rubio
IL  R Kirk
NV  R Angle
PA  R Toomey
WA  R Rossi
WI  R Johnson
WV R Rease

Rubio  46%
Crist  44%
Meep   10%

House 69 Seats

Posted by: trainer at October 22, 2010 06:40 AM (K5X44)

89

ok if I win Gabe just refer to me as YRM, i've used that moniker longer then my new one, and don't hold it against me when we've disagreed, ok now on to the predictions

House: GOP Gains 62 Seats

Senate
AK - Miller (R)
CA - Firiona (R)
CT - Blumenthal (D)
DE - Coons (D)
FL - Rubio (R)
IL - Kirk (R)
NV - Angle (R)
PA - Toomey (R)
WA - Rossi (R)
WI - Johnson (R)
WV - Reasse (R)
* apologies to Candidates if I mispell their names

Tiebreaker for Senate
Rubio 45% Crist 34% Meek 21%

Posted by: YRM (The Youngest Ace Commenter Confusing Folks With My Other Name AuthorLMendez) at October 22, 2010 06:41 AM (xQuuU)

90 Your moderator is rejecting my reply because it says strings of unbroken text are annoying (referring to my list)

Posted by: conservativechick at October 22, 2010 06:41 AM (pBP7J)

91

House- gains 91

Alaska- Miller

Calif- Boxer

Connecticut-McMahon

Delaware-Coons

Florida-Rubio

Illinois-Kirk

Nevada-Angle

Pennsylvania-Toomey

Washington-Murray

Wisconsin-Johnson

West Virginia-Rease

 

 

Posted by: jewells at October 22, 2010 06:45 AM (l/N7H)

92

House: GOP net gain of 70 seats.

Senate:

AK -  Miller
CA - Fiorina
CT -  Blumenthal
DE -  Coons
FL -  Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV -  Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Rossi
WI - Johnson
WV - Raese

Tiebreaker: Rubio 46, Crist 29, Meek 25

Posted by: rockmom at October 22, 2010 06:46 AM (w/gVZ)

93 House = +65 AK = R (noise != results) CA = D CT = D DE = D FL = R, comfortably IL = R NV = D (Reid's got too much mojo) PA = R WA = D (there's a trunk full of votes with Patty's name on them) WI = R WV = R in a squeaker Rubio = 44%, Crist = 35%, Meeks = 21%

Posted by: joncelli at October 22, 2010 06:48 AM (RD7QR)

94 GABE, It would be cool if we could get an average for House seats of all the picks made here along with %s for each Senate seat. If you aren't too busy in your new bed that is.

Posted by: Rocks at October 22, 2010 06:48 AM (Q1lie)

95 For the House:

GOP +69 (GOP +71, minus Dem pickups in LA-02 and DE-AL)

For the Senate:

AK: Murkowski
CA: Fiorina
CT: Blumenthal
DE: Coons
FL: Rubio
IL: Kirk
NV: Angle
PA: Toomey
WA: Murray
WI: Johnson
WV: Raese

Tiebreaker:

Rubio 49% Crist 27% Meek 23%

Posted by: Jeff B. at October 22, 2010 06:49 AM (NjYDy)

96 In case everyone forgot, Republicans are also going to pick up Senate seats in Arkansas and Colorado.  My predictions have the Senate split 50R-48D-2I.  If that happens, I think Joe Lieberman will caucus with the Republicans and give them control.  They will let him keep his Chairmanship of the Homeland Security Committee.  If not Lieberman then Ben Nelson will actually switch parties and give Republicans control. 

Posted by: rockmom at October 22, 2010 06:51 AM (w/gVZ)

97 First Contest: House of Representatives
How many seats will the GOP gain (net) in the House?

65

Second Contest: Senate
Predict the outcome in the following eleven senate races, which we've given particular attention to here at the HQ:

AK - Miller
CA - Fiorina
CT - Blumenthal
DE - Coons
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Reid
PA - Toomey
WA - Rossi
WI- Johnson
WV - Manchin

Tiebreaker:

Rubio 45% - Crist 33% - Meek 22%


And Rick Perry in Texas will be re-elected Governor by a large margin.

Posted by: mpur in Texas (kicking Mexico's ass since 1836) at October 22, 2010 06:51 AM (plthz)

98

+86 Net.

Sweep the Senate races.

R/C/M 50/26/24

 

Posted by: Michael at October 22, 2010 06:54 AM (FC2+c)

99

just a quick comment: the doom and gloom by some of you in the senate races is laughable, as with the over optimistic predictions of the senate, what seems to be general consensous is that the house will be won w/ anywhere from 48 to 80+ seats, it makes me wonder if the Senate was as hard to follows as the 400+ races in the House if we wouldn't be so pessimistic or overly optimistic about these senate races, and btw those of you who say O'Donell wins in DE but other Rs lose, trust me if she wins DE we're gonna sweep all the toss ups even CT

Posted by: YRM (The Youngest Ace Commenter Confusing Folks With My Other Name AuthorLMendez) at October 22, 2010 06:59 AM (xQuuU)

100

House of Representatives:  R+49

Senate

AK: Miller (R)
CA: Boxer (D)
CT: Blumenthal (D)
DE: Coons (D)
FL: Rubio (R)
IL:  Mob banker (D)
NV: Angle (R)
PA: Toomey (R)
WA: Murray (D)
WI: Johnson (R)
WV: Raese (R)

Tiebreaker: Rubio 44, Crist 34, Meek 20. 


Posted by: Jon at October 22, 2010 07:04 AM (Xt7UU)

101 Harrumph!

The Rodent Predicts the Following Outcomes:

First Contest: 
GOP will gain 90 seats in House.

Second Contest:
( Outcomes of 11 Senate Races
    
AK - R
     CA - D
     CT - R
     DE - R
     FL  - R
     IL   - D
     NV - R
     PA  - R
     WA - D
     WI  - R
     WV - R

Tiebreaker:
Rubio:  46%   // Crist: 18% //  Meeks: 32% (remaining 2% is miscellaneous off-the-wall candidates)





Posted by: Minnie Rodent at October 22, 2010 07:08 AM (PZLW0)

102

House = +56   (overall congressional vote splits 53-47 R)

AK = R  (not close as AK polls are always bananas)

CA = R  (that cee-you-next-tuesday goes down, 51-49)
CT = D  (CT is a lost state and a loser state 51-49)
DE = D (come on, do you really think DE would go R, another loser state 53-47)
FL = R  (50R-28D-22I)
IL = R  (squeaky and dirty)
NV = R (grandpa is done 52-4
PA = R  (long night 51-49)
WA = D (this cee-you-next-tuesday wins, 51-49) Rossi please find another job, god, what can you run for next...)
WI = R (nice guy but totally moonbat loses 53-47)
WV = R (WV trending away from D... 52-4

Posted by: lurkinginRI at October 22, 2010 07:14 AM (U4Rrg)

103 damn...forgot the tiebreaker

House: +72

They will either win the House big or not win control at all.

Senate:
AK - R (barely beating Crybaby Lisa)
CA - D (Californians ARE that stupid.)
CT - R
DE - D (but close)
FL - R (not close)
IL - R
NV - R (not close)
PA - R (by a hair)
WA - D (Dems will figure a way to steal one again.)
WI - R
WV - R

Tiebreaker:
Rubio 50, Meek 26, Crist 22, various oddballs 2

Posted by: davidingeorgia at October 22, 2010 07:15 AM (JsT3z)

104

House of Representatives: R +59

Senate:

AK: Miller (R)
CA: Fiorina (R)
CT: Blumenthal (D)
DE: Coons (D)
FL: Rubio (R)
IL:  Asshole (D)
NV: Angle (R)
PA: Toomey (R)
WA: Murray (D)
WI: Johnson (R)
WV: Raese (R)

Florida: Rubio 44% Crist 31% Meeks 24%

Posted by: TiredWench at October 22, 2010 07:18 AM (oPceJ)

105  75 House seats

 Republicans take   AK.,NV.,CA.,FL.,IL.,PA.,WI.,WV.'. Dems. take CT.,DE.,and WA.

  Rubio 48,Crist 28, Meeks 24.
 

 
 
 

Posted by: Donna at October 22, 2010 07:18 AM (/9pqf)

106

First Contest: House of Representatives: GOP +66

Second Contest: Senate:

AK: Miller
CA: Fiorina
CT: Blumenthal
DE: Coons
FL: Rubio
IL: Kirk
NV: Angle
PA: Toomey
WA: Rossi
WI: Johnson
WV: Raese

Tiebreaker:
Rubio 49% Crist 26% Meek 21%.

Posted by: Kevin in ABQ at October 22, 2010 07:19 AM (NtI5g)

107 House: +65
Senate:
AK-R
CA-R
CT-D
DE-D
FL-R
IL-R
NV-R
PA-R
WA-R
WI-R
WV-R

Rubio-49
Crist-25
Meek-26

Posted by: JP at October 22, 2010 07:23 AM (+hVrU)

108

House:   R +62 net seats

AK - Miller

CA - Boxer

CT - Blumenthal

DE - Coons

FL - Rubio

IL - Kirk

NV - Angle

PA - Toomey

WA - Rossi

WI - Johnson

WV - Raese

Rubio 52%  Crist 26%  Meek 22% 

Posted by: Marc B. at October 22, 2010 07:26 AM (9CHgV)

109 House +102 for the Rs - Yes, I have very high hopes.

AK - Miller (R)
CA - Fiorina (R)
CT - Blumenthal (SOB - but they deserve nothing better to represent them)
DE - Marxist Shithead (D) - accurately represents the idiot yankee former slaveholding state
FL - Rubio (R)
IL - Kirk (R) - in a squeaker.  We'll slaughter them, but the Ds will cheat magnificently.  It will be a heroic, but losing effort for them.
NV - Angle (R)
PA - Toomey (R - 6 years too late!)
WA - Rossi (Dear Lord - Please!)
WI - Johnson (OMG - two years ago, who would have thought Feingold would be gone?!?!)
WV - Raese (R) in a squeaker. 

Tiebreaker:  Rubio 53 - Crist 23 - Meek 21

Posted by: someone out there at October 22, 2010 07:28 AM (wMdIp)

110 Pikers, all of you.

House: 107 seats

AK-R
CA-R
CT-R
DE-D (Though this one will be close too)
FL-R
IL-R
NV-R
PA-R
WA-R
WI-R
WV-R

Rubio- 51
Crist- 24
Meek- 24

Posted by: BruceinSoCal at October 22, 2010 07:29 AM (xikIn)

111 I am going with my hash (Repubs Upend Useless 60)

R +60

AK-R
CA-D
CT-D
DE-D
FL-R
IL-R
NV-R
PA-R
WA-R
WI-R
WV-R

Rubio- 48
Crist- 27
Meek- 25

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 22, 2010 07:37 AM (ruu60)

112

House +58

senate +8

Rubio 45 Christ 31 Meek 22

Posted by: Mo Cheese at October 22, 2010 07:45 AM (VLSP1)

113

House +3

senate +1

Meek 51, Jesus Christ, 47, Rubio 3

 

The Meek shall inherit Florida.

Posted by: markos at October 22, 2010 07:48 AM (VLSP1)

114

HA!  All those R gains look so much like Reagan to me.  Wish he were still around....American needs you, Ronald Reagan.....

Posted by: Lurkin'no'mo at October 22, 2010 07:56 AM (6zvrq)

115 76/10

Posted by: rdbrewer at October 22, 2010 08:13 AM (tRI3c)

116

76/10 

Rubio 48, Crist 29, Meek 23

Posted by: rdbrewer at October 22, 2010 08:18 AM (tRI3c)

117 Is this based on the first vote or the recount or the court decision? Before or after the extra ballots are found in a Krispy Kreme box in an abandoned taxicab? I will see all of you in court! I swear it!1111111

Posted by: Mr. Barky at October 22, 2010 08:24 AM (qwK3S)

118

60 Net R Gain in House

AK - Miller (R)
CA - Boxer (D)
CT - Blumenthal (D)
DE - Coons (D)
FL - Rubio (R)
IL - Kirk (R)
NV - Angle (R)
PA - Toomey (R)
WA - Rossi (R)
WI - Johnson (R)
WV - Raese (R)

Tie Breaker: 

Rubio (R) - 55%; Crist (D) - 23%; Meek (D) 22% 

Posted by: DaveCal at October 22, 2010 08:27 AM (+q3dR)

119

First Contest: House of Representatives

84: Is Dem turnout is low, Glen Urqhart may pull off DE-AL.

Second Contest: Senate
AK Miller
CA Fiorina
CT Blumenthal (Close but yeah)
DE O'Donnell (if the Dems stay home, she'll win)
FL Rubio
IL Kirk
NV Angle
PA Toomey
WA Rossi.
WI Johnson
WV Raese

CO Buck

I'm going out on a limb to pedict that we have a shot at AR and ND as well. 

 Rubio 46% Crist 24% Meeks 30%: On election day, Rs and Ds will win out

 

Posted by: Blue Hen at October 22, 2010 08:37 AM (R2fpr)

120



R +55


R +54

AK-R
CA-R (Carly, cause she can)
CT-R
DE-D
FL-R
IL-R
NV-R
PA-R
WA-R
WI-R
WV-R

Rubio 51 Christ 25  Meek 24

Posted by: securitymom at October 22, 2010 08:40 AM (oHUi9)

121 opps R+55 changed my mind and forgot to delete the 54...sorry.

Posted by: securitymom at October 22, 2010 08:42 AM (oHUi9)

122 House +111 (107 is the highest I see here and I figure it will be a bigger wave than anyone is willing to publicly admit-and I'm not going to be that PIR prick who bids the maximum of the others +1)

Senate:  Rs run the table (of the races mentioned here).  I think there'll be a major surprise (WWE gal wouldn't be a surprise being down just 5 in the most recent poll I've seen) somewhere in the Senate races and it might as well be DE.

53 Rubio 25 Crist 21 Meek 1Spongebob

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2010 08:56 AM (Ew1k4)

123

Wow. A quick scan shows quite the range here. From 46 to 107 pickups in the House, and from 7/11 for the Dems to 11/11 for the Reps in the Senate races.

Pollyanna vs. Eeyore.

 

 

Posted by: TiredWench at October 22, 2010 09:03 AM (oPceJ)

124 Spoke too soon. Looks like +111 R is the new House high.

Posted by: TiredWench at October 22, 2010 09:04 AM (oPceJ)

125 Pollyanna vs. Eeyore.

I love the fact that a 46 seat pickup, which means control of the House, is what passes for Eeyorism these days.

Posted by: Methos at October 22, 2010 09:08 AM (Ew1k4)

126 +60 R gains in House

AK - R (Miller)
CA - R
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R  Rubio 48, Crist 28, Meek 20
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - D
WI - R
WV - D

Posted by: Y-not at October 22, 2010 09:20 AM (osFsP)

127 I hope I'm wrong, btw.  House could easily go to 70 or 80 gains.  I don't think we'll win back the Senate, unfortunately, but if we can knock off Boxer, Reid, and Feingold, that'd be a great thing. 

Posted by: Y-not at October 22, 2010 09:21 AM (osFsP)

128 House: 35 seats.

Senate:

Alaska -- Miller
California -- Boxer
Connecticut -- Blumenthal
Delaware -- Coons
Florida -- Rubio
Illinois -- Gianoulianus
Nevada -- Angle
Pennsylvani -- Toomey
Washington -- Rossi
Wiscosnin -- Johnson
West Virginia -- Raese

Tie Breaker: Rubio 44%, Crist 33%, Meek 22%

Posted by: Soothsayer at October 22, 2010 09:24 AM (uFokq)

129 House 76 net to Republicans AK Miller CA Fiorina CT McMahon DE Coons FL Rubio IL Kirk NV Angle PA Toomey WA Rossi WI Johnson WV Raese Florida = Rubio 45% Flipper 23% Meek 28% You can send the check for $2.5 billion to my account in Lichtenstein. No. 12122995-0090 Thanks,

Posted by: Jack is Back! at October 22, 2010 09:26 AM (bjg18)

130 77 net gain in the House. Senate: AK. R CA. R CT. R DE. D FL. R IL. R NV. R PA. R WA. D WI. R WV. R Rubio 51, Crist 27, Meeks 22

Posted by: Tipping point at October 22, 2010 09:35 AM (W8zPh)

131

House + 72

AK - Miller
CA - R
CT - R
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - R
WI - R
WV - R

BE THE WAVE!

 

Posted by: Steph at October 22, 2010 09:40 AM (ZfkPl)

132

House:  R+58

 

AK - Miller
CA - Fiorino
CT - McMahon
DE - Coons
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Rossi
WI - Johnson
WV - Raese

Tiebreaker:

Rubio 47, Crist 22, Meek 29

Bonus Tiebreaker:

Tastes Great 54% Less Filling 45%

Posted by: MrCaniac at October 22, 2010 09:45 AM (oREHE)

133 Net 67

AK - Miller
CA - R
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - R
WI - R
WV - R

Rubio 52, Crist 22, Meek 25

Posted by: JonathanEllis at October 22, 2010 09:46 AM (BdzEV)

134 Greeting Morons, one and all! AK-MILLER CA-R CT-D DE-D FL-RUBIO IL-R NV-R PA-R WA-D WI-R WV-R HOUSE +52 SEATS FOR PUBS Rubio 54% Crist 24% Meeks 21% MSM will report record low turnout for Democrats.

Posted by: ford the IINO. Independent in name only at October 22, 2010 09:55 AM (Ki7fm)

135 79 house seats.

All but CT and DE go R in the senate races.

Rubio 48 Crist 30 Meeks 22.

Posted by: Jay in Ames at October 22, 2010 10:08 AM (UEEex)

136 +55 AK-R CA-D CT-D DE-D FL-R IL-R NV-D PA-R WA-R WI-R WV-R Rubio-51 Crist-26 Meeks-20

Posted by: Lilikoi at October 22, 2010 10:44 AM (PQPZv)

137 in reference to http://minx.cc/?blog=86&post=307192#c11132701 (v+R5I):

Tie-breaker: Rubio 48%, Crist 31%, Meek 21%

Posted by: JASmius at October 22, 2010 10:49 AM (pLHX0)

138 House +94 R

AK - Miller (R)
CA - Fiorina (R)
CT - McMahon (R)
DE - O'Donnell (R)
FL - Rubio (R)
IL - Kirk (R)
NV - Angle (R)
PA - Toomey (R)
WA - Rossi (R)
WI - Johnson (R)
WV - Raese (R)

Tiebreaker:
Rubio: 47% Crist: 28%  Meek: 23%  Others:  2%

Posted by: blindgoose at October 22, 2010 10:52 AM (Qa624)

139 AK - R
CA - R
CT - R
DE - D
FL - R Rubio 47%, Crist 27%, Meek  25%, Other 1%
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - R
WI - R
WV - R

Posted by: Jaime El Greco at October 22, 2010 11:08 AM (3RuDB)

140 Oops, House +80

Posted by: Jaime El Greco at October 22, 2010 11:09 AM (3RuDB)

141 +76 House, run the table in the Senate list.

Posted by: richard mcenroe at October 22, 2010 11:09 AM (U7SJn)

142

House: +77

Senate:
AK:  Miller
CA: Fiorina
CT: McMahon
DE: Coons

FL: Rubio

IL: Kirk
NV: Angle 
PA: Toomey 
WA: Rossi 
WI: Johnson 
WV: Rease 

Tie-breaker:  Rubio: 51%, Meeks 26%, Crist 23% 

Posted by: flodigarry at October 22, 2010 11:10 AM (s8wXM)

143

already did this twice....

 

87

10

 

fuckthetiebreakers cause I'm gonna win on the nose.

Posted by: The Great Satan's Ghost at October 22, 2010 11:22 AM (08Pe8)

144 House: 71. Senate: AK - Joe Miller CA - Fiorina CT - McMahon DE - Coons FL - Rubio IL - Kirk NV - Angle PA - Toomey WA - Rossi WI - Johnson WV - Raese FL - Rubio 52% Crist - 27% Meek 21%

Posted by: Moron Pundit at October 22, 2010 11:34 AM (OrTTr)

145

House 76

Senate: all of them except Deleware, Oregon, Maryland, and both New York seats

Posted by: Nancy Piglosi at October 22, 2010 11:59 AM (8X9tr)

146 House 67

AK R (Miller, not Mercowskee)
CA D
CT D
DE D
FL R
IL R
NV R
PA R
WA D
WI R
WV R

+7 senate.

Rubio 50.001 Crist 29 Meek 21

Chocolate 32 Butterscotch 20 Vanilla 19 Swirled/Other 29

Posted by: random at October 22, 2010 12:04 PM (PUpEa)

147 +76 House, run the table in the Senate list.

------------------------------------

Richard McEnroe, I remember you from Tim Blair's site. You're way too smart a guy to really believe a Senate sweep. I think your tongue is firmly in cheek. But hat's off to you if you're right.

Posted by: schizuki at October 22, 2010 12:06 PM (M+lbD)

148

House------71

AK - R
CA - D
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - R
WI - R
WV - R


Rubio - 46
Crist - 33
Meek - 20

 

Posted by: Keven at October 22, 2010 12:13 PM (yO+uQ)

149

House: 60

AK - Murkowski
CA - Fiorina
CT - Blumenthal
DE - Coons
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Rossi
WI - Johnson
WV - Raese

Tiebreaker:
Rubio 44% Crist 32% Meek 23%

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 22, 2010 12:31 PM (mHQ7T)

150 Hey, Gabe.  If you need help in tabing all this shit in a spreadsheet, let me know.  I can be a grunt for you in some way, and I'm pretty decent at spreadsheets too.  I know.  You don't' know me from Adam.  I read a lot here and generally keep my mouth shut.

Posted by: Sukie Tawdry at October 22, 2010 12:47 PM (jbCcb)

151 House - 57 seats gained.

Senate -
AK - R - Miller
CA - D
CT - D
DE - D
FL - R
IL - R
NV - R
PA - R
WA - D
WI - R
WV - D

Florida - Rubio 48% - Crist 29% - Meek 23%

I hope I am way low and we take 75 seats, and I also hope I am wrong in CA, CT and WV.. but those are going to be tough.

And, hey.. what's the prize besides being crowned smartest moron?

Of course, it would be prize enough to see Pelosi and Reid both lose their leadership positions..

Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 22, 2010 12:49 PM (f9c2L)

152 House: +72
While the margin of cheat will be large, I expect the enthusiasm of GOP and Tea Party voters will close it.
Senate:
AK-Miller(R) Mikulski will get beaten by the inability of her supporters to spell her name. And yes, there will be lawsuits. I don't expect the whiney heiress to give up her seat easily.
CA-Fiorina(R) enthusiasm wins over margin of cheat. Will she Boxer still insist on being called Senator? of course she will.
CT-Blumenthal(D) As much as I think McMahon would actually be a good Senator, the margin is just too big for her to overcome.
DE-Coons(D)
FL-Rubio(R) 52%, Crist 28%, Meek 20%
IL-Kirk(R) The margin of cheat will work on both sides here (hey it is IL)
NV-Angle(R) Harry won't have to smell the tourists anymore.
PA-Toomey(R)
WA-Rossi(R)
WI-Johnson(R)
WV-Raese(R) RCP average shows Manchin ahead by 1.5%, but considering much of that comes from a Dem sponsored poll that shows him ahead by 10, I'm tossing that one out. Obama is just too unpopular here to keep from hurting the Governor. In two years Manchin may take this seat back.

Posted by: DanH at October 22, 2010 01:27 PM (uqanI)

153
House:  GOP + 62

Senate:
AK   Mircurzkoni
CA  Fiorina
CT  Blumenthal
DE  Coons
FL  Rubio
IL  Kirk
NV  Angle
PA  Toomey
WA  Murray
WI  Johnson
WV  Raese

Florida Senate Race %'s:   Rubio 49%, Crist 27%, Meek 24%

Posted by: Sapwolf at October 22, 2010 01:37 PM (fbP2x)

154 Alright my predictions:

GOP +59 in the House I could see this going to over 60 if this is a real tsunami on the West Coast and East Coast. If not we win some on the coasts (WA, OR, CA, etc) but not enough to truly pummel the Democrats into a manic depressive state.

Sean Duffy wins in landslide
Chip Cravaack beats Oberstar as major GOP upset of the night
David Harmer beats Jerry McNerney (CA CD11- DONATE OR VOLUNTEER at harmerforcongress.com WE NEED YOU)
Allen West and Dan Webster win- Webster wins BIG
Joe Heck takes NV 3- BIG
Sean Bielat loses, but does better than anyone predicted (Super sad face)
I'll update various House Predictions for fun. I have a FB thread with my friends for this stuff so we'll see how I do.
Ike Skelton loses in GOP upset of the night

AK- Joe Miller by +1.5% or less- This will be an all nighter with weeks of recounts and more BS, Leeza Murcowsekieee will come close but still lose
CA-Carly Fiorina by 2% or less- more of a "toss up" but Carly has run a solid race the last two weeks and that doesn't look to change- Barb can't get more then 47% in any poll and at this point has not found a consistent message that works.
CT- Richard Blumenthal by 3% or less- Toss up but tilt Dem. McMahon has run a heroic race and made me a believer.
DE- Crazy Coons by 13% or MORE- We told you so.
FL- Marco Rubio with 45% of the vote or MORE
IL- Kirk by 2% or less
NV- Angle by 2-3%
PA- Toomey by 4-5%
WA-Murray by 2% or less- This is a pure toss up at this point imo, and I really want to give it to Dino cuz he is awesome, but I just can't see it and that makes me sad. I see this tilting our way the next few weeks, but the Dem Machine in WA is making it uphill.
WI- Ron Johnson by 5% or more no question
WV- Raese by 2-3%- WV wants Manchin to stay as governor and the wave will push Raese over, no matter what ads he runs.

GOP +8 or 9 in Gubernatorial races- Meg loses CA (This sucks b/c Jerry Brown sucks)- Rick Scott pulls of upset in FL to make it +9 (How the hell will you vote for Rubio, Webster, West, and the challenger to Kosmas and NOT vote for Scott?)


Posted by: John P L at October 22, 2010 01:43 PM (E8LfO)

155

House GOP + 71

Senate:

AK-Miller

CA-Fiorina

CT-Blumenthal(He served in Vietnam w/Kerry)

DE-Coons

FLA-Rubio

Il-Kirk

NV-Angle(Highlight of my life)

Pa-Toomey

WA-Rossi

WI-Johnson

WV-Raese

FLA GOV- Rubio 50%  Crist 24%  Meek 26%

Black Pathers minus 10  vs  AG's office

Posted by: TheDude at October 22, 2010 02:02 PM (//8Z5)

156

House: Reps +102

Senate:

AK - Miller
CA - Fiorina
CT - McMahon
DE - O'Donnell
FL - Rubio
IL - Kirk
NV - Angle
PA - Toomey
WA - Rossi
WI - Johnson
WV - Raese

 

Tiebreaker: Rubio 49.4%-Meek 24.5%-Crist 21.7%

Posted by: RichatUF at October 22, 2010 02:05 PM (hc6AS)

157

House, GOP +61

AK-Miller

CA-Boxer

CT- Blumenthal, State changes motto to "Lie to Me"

DE-Coons

FL-Rubio

IL-Kirk

NV-Angle

PA-Toomey

WA-Murray

WI-Johnson

WV-Raese

FL Senate: Rubio 48%, The Oompah Loompah Crist 28%, That other guy..um...Meeks 24%

 

Posted by: Gerry Owen at October 22, 2010 02:12 PM (4ABat)

158 Well, I can't do any worse here than I'm doing on the NFL pick 'em.

House: Rep net +64

Senate: Rep AK CA FL IL NV PA WA WI WV. Dem CT DE

Florida: Rubio 48, Crisp 28, Meek 24.


Posted by: Little Miss Spellcheck at October 22, 2010 02:19 PM (xqhoO)

159
House of Representatives: R +94

Optimistic? Maybe, but what's the point if we don't go for all the marbles?

Senate:
AK - R (Miller)
CA -
R
CT -
D
DE -
D
FL -
R
IL -
R
NV -
R
PA -
R
WA -
R
WI -
R
WV -
R

Tiebreaker:
Rubio 46, Crist 33, Meek 21

Posted by: NM Hick at October 22, 2010 02:31 PM (IzuWw)

160

71 seat GOP gain in the House.

Senate races:

AK-Miller

CA-Fiorina

CT-Blumenthal

DE-Coons

FL-Rubio

IL-Kirk

NV-Angle

PA-Toomey

WA - Murray. The ballots are already packed in the car trunks.

WI-Johnson

WV-Raese

FL percents: Rubio 51, Meeks 27, Orange Julius 21

You didn't ask, but upset of the night: Lollar defeats Hoyer in MD-5 in a squeaker.

Posted by: gidorah's haberdasher at October 22, 2010 02:45 PM (PEyXz)

161

gop gains 67 seats in house

AK miller       CA fiorina    CT  mcmahon    DE coons     FL rubio

IL kirk          NV angle      PA toomey        WA rossi      WI johnson

WV  raese

FL  rubio 48%  crist 27%   meek  25%

 

Posted by: nsirchovrik at October 22, 2010 02:49 PM (rXQ7T)

162 Viking Pundit prediction: RCP says +36 now and I'm giving 2/3rds of 43 toss-ups: 36 + (.66 * 43) = +64 seats for the GOP. AK - GOP hold (Miller) CA - Dem hold CT - Dem hold DE - Dem hold FL - GOP Hold IL - GOP pickup NV - GOP pickup PA - GOP pickup WA - Dem hold WI - GOP pickup WV - GOP pickup Florida tiebreaker: Rubio 50%, Crist 25%, Meek 25%

Posted by: Eric Lindholm at October 22, 2010 03:30 PM (OrEwE)

163 80 House seats (net).

AK - Miller
CA- Fiorina
CT- Blumenthal
DE- O'Donnell, what the hell, why not?
FL- Rubio
IL- Kirk
NV- Angle
PA- Toomey
WA- Rossi in a squeaker (possible recount)
WI- Feingold
WV- Raese

FL tiebreaker:  Rubio 51, Crist 29, Meeks 20


Posted by: Porchlight at October 22, 2010 03:36 PM (roU7r)

164 Damn it.  I meant Feingold loses WI.  Johnson wins.  Sorry...

Posted by: Porchlight at October 22, 2010 03:37 PM (roU7r)

165

69 more conservative Republicans - come on it's such a great number (maybe 96 but that's too much pudding)

AK - Miller ; FL -Rubio ; PA - Toomey; IL - Kirk; NV - Angle; WI - Johnson; WV - Raese. CA - Boxer; CT - Bloomersandall; DE - Coon; WA - Murray 

Not that I need it but, Rubio 54, Meek 26, Crist 19.

Whatever comes out of it may GOD BLESS AMERICA!

(Thanks Dale Gladding NJ-1, A good trooper)

Posted by: MantuaBill at October 22, 2010 03:38 PM (96j+b)

166 House + 72 Senate Alaska - Miller California - Fiorina Connecticut -- McMahon Deleware -- O'Donnell Florida - Rubio Illinois - Kirk Nevada - Angle Pennsylvania - Toomey Washington - Murray Wisconsin - Johnson West Virginia - Raese Florida Percentages Rubio 48%, Crist 26%, Meek 26%

Posted by: d at October 22, 2010 03:48 PM (ChvB0)

167

House +67

AK: Miller +5

PA: Toomey +3 % (Nice try, Philadelphia)

CA:  Fiorina +2 % (Boxer demands recount)

IL: Kirk +1 % (Nice try, Chicago)

NV: Angle +7 (Yes, plus 7)

DE:  Coons +3%

WV: Raese +5% (Thank you eastern WV panhandle!)

CT: McMahon +3% (Upset of the night!!)

WA:  Murray (No recount needed, Murray won!)

WI:  Johnson +5%

Florida:  Rubio 50%, Meeks 26%, Crist 23%

 

Posted by: TimothyCapwell at October 22, 2010 03:49 PM (/7m2e)

168 House - GOP +82

AK-R
CA-R
CT-D
DE-D
FL-R
IL-R
NV-R
PA-R
WA-R
WI-R
WV-R

Rubio - 50
Crist - 21
Meek - 29.

Posted by: caro at October 22, 2010 03:58 PM (aqnOO)

169 First Contest: House of Representatives

GOP net gain of 71 seats.

Result: GOP House 249-186.


Second Contest: Senate

AK -- Miller. 
(By 15-20 over the Dem.  Murkowski not a factor.)
CA -- Boxer. 
(By 3-5.)
CT -- Blumenthal. 
(By 5-7.)
DE -- Coons. 
(By 10-15, and we told you so.)
FL -- Rubio. 
(see below.)
IL -- Kirk. 
(by 1-3.)
NV -- Angle. 
(by 1-3.)
PA -- Toomey. 
(by 3-5.)
WA -- Murray. 
(by 1-3.)
WI -- Johnson.
(by 3-5.)
WV -- Raese. 
(by 1-3.)

Also, tight races in KY and CO -- Paul (by 1-3) and Buck (by 0-2), respectively.  All other seats safe.

Result:  50-50 Democrat Senate.


Tiebreaker:

Rubio: 43%
Crist: 31%
Meek: 26%

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at October 22, 2010 03:59 PM (8qBNQ)

170

First Contest: House of Representatives
How many seats will the GOP gain (net) in the House?

53 seats

Second Contest: Senate
Predict the outcome in the following eleven senate races, which we've given particular attention to here at the HQ:

AK - R
CA - D
CT - D
DE -D
FL -R
IL - R
NV - R
PA -R
WA -R
WI -R
WV - R

Tiebreaker:
The tiebreaker for both contests will be a prediction of the percentages in the Florida Rubio-Crist-Meek race.

Rubio 42

Crist 30

Meek 27



Posted by: Junior Samples at October 22, 2010 04:15 PM (J7AhD)

171

House 86 seats

AK--R
CA--R
CT--R

DE--D by less than 3%
FL--R
IL--R
NV--R
PA--R
WA--R

WI--R
WV--R

Rubio 51%  Crist 22%  Meek 24%

Regards,

 

 

Posted by: the Dragon at October 22, 2010 04:43 PM (gRSqy)

172 Crap, I don't need no steenking deadline !!!

First Contest: House of Representatives
How many seats will the GOP gain (net) in the House? 76

Second Contest: Senate
Predict the outcome in the following eleven senate races, which we've given particular attention to here at the HQ:

AK -R
CA -R
CT -D
DE -D
FL -R
IL -R
NV -R
PA -R
WA -R
WI -R
WV -R

Tiebreaker:
The tiebreaker for both contests will be a prediction of the percentages in the Florida Rubio-Crist-Meek race.

Rubio - 51

Crist - 29

Meek - 20

Posted by: Gmac at October 22, 2010 04:56 PM (YeTsh)

173 DAMMIT shouldna gone to the bar after work.  Missed the deadline.

Anyway, this old RINO sez

44/6 (AR, ND, WI, NV, CO, IL tip).

42 R/32 C/26 M.

Part of RINOism  - or this might be Eyorism? - is lowballing, so you're pleasantly surprised.  I expect to be.  But this is my (too-late) "prediction."

Posted by: Knemon at October 22, 2010 05:04 PM (bWEOW)

174 House +63 R (I know it's late but I just got home from work and Ace is blocked there ><) Rubio 48.2 Christie 34.4 Meeks 15.1 other 2.3 Senate: all R except CT / DE (although very close in both +3 in CT for D and +5 DE for D)

Posted by: Lord Nazh at October 22, 2010 05:04 PM (zhA4+)

175 Too late to enter, but I'll predict 60 house seats, 6 senate seats and Florida split 45% Rubio, 32% Crist, 22% Meek.

Posted by: waelse1 at October 23, 2010 01:38 AM (N58+p)

176 I'm too late as well, but I'll predict a 75 seat pick up in the House and 12 in the Senate.  My Florida Fantasy would be 100% Rubio, and Crist and Meek split the remaining 0%...but realistically 48% Rubio, 30% Crist (cause there are "some" orange people in FL), and 22% to Meek

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