Ace of Spades HQ

October 26, 2010

Contest: Election 2010 Predictions
— Gabriel Malor

Well, we're a week out. If we take the contest predictions as the sense of the HQ, there's quite a range of sentiment out there in Moron Land. Here's the notable predictions.

In the House contest, GOP net gain:

Soothsayer 35 <--Ultimate AOSHQ Eeyore
~~Eric Lindholm 36~~
Catlady 46
MJ 47
Crush Liberalism 47
Paul 47
.
.
.
Jan E. 100
Cowboy Wally 101
someone out there 102
RichatUF 102
Rocks 103
BruceinSoCal 107
Methos 111 <--Retard-Strength Fanboyism

A large majority of predictions were rather conservative (so to speak) in the range of these uninspired fellows:

Slublog 65
Dave 69
Drew 74

Senate predictions tomorrow.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at 02:57 PM | Comments (108)
Post contains 111 words, total size 1 kb.

1 First!

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 02:58 PM (/1kyA)

2 I think I said 67, but I like 69.

I hope I'm better at picking elections than I am at making football picks.

Posted by: Y-not at October 26, 2010 02:58 PM (UcOiF)

3 I'ma dot!

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 26, 2010 03:00 PM (AZWim)

4 Retard-Strength Fanboyism

I suppose that's better than Pollyanish. And if you want fanboyism, you should see how long it takes me to get from judging to Gamestop to pick up a copy of Gran Turismo 5.

BTW, check the old post again. I picked 111 because 107 had been claimed by somebody.

Posted by: Methos at October 26, 2010 03:00 PM (Ew1k4)

5 Third! I mean, 79 in the house, 9 in the Senate, and 14 votes for the anti-Jedi party in the Galactic Senate.

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 26, 2010 03:00 PM (DPM1U)

6 77 in da house, yo.
10 in the senate.

Posted by: Joe Mama at October 26, 2010 03:00 PM (pRKLf)

7 I hope I'm better at picking elections than I am at making football picks.

I PREDICT THE DEMOCRATS WILL WIN EVERYTHING!.

_{Please work!
Please work!
Please work!
Please work!
Please work!
Please work!
Please work!}

Posted by: MikeTheMoose at October 26, 2010 03:01 PM (0q2P7)

8 What was the mean and median Gabe?

Maybe Geoff can do a bell curve graph. Or a pie chart, I like pie.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 26, 2010 03:01 PM (ruu60)

9 I thought somebody said 107?

Posted by: Rocks at October 26, 2010 03:01 PM (AoVGn)

10 Now that Sheppy has his contract assured, he's turned even more libtard, dick-suck dumbass than before. Oh, and heavier on the eye-liner. Douche.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at October 26, 2010 03:02 PM (UOM48)

11 Also can we get an average?

Posted by: Rocks at October 26, 2010 03:02 PM (AoVGn)

12 70. I likes me nice round numbers.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2010 03:02 PM (fOUZn)

13 WHAT?!? I said +64! I said 36 plus two-thirds of toss-ups = 64. Go back and re-read.

Posted by: Eric Lindholm at October 26, 2010 03:03 PM (EX2z8)

14 oh and Thanks Gabe!

Posted by: Rocks at October 26, 2010 03:03 PM (AoVGn)

15 "Retard-Strength Fanboyism." That's a keeper.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at October 26, 2010 03:03 PM (xgfcV)

Like DiT and YNot, I went with 69.

I had 65 originally, but I figured why not bump it up a few for the sake of Moronism.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 26, 2010 03:04 PM (AZWim)

I thought I remembered seeing something a few days ago where Bamster was saying that 15 Senate seats were in play (the first time I've EVER heard that). I'm wondering if the White House has access to polling numbers that nobody has seen........

As I said in the last thread, I really do think that last Democrat firewall is about to come crashing down - Charlie Cook's numbers are devastating for the Dems, and many of those races would likely be in the Toss-Up category were it not for the fact that the incumbent is a D.

And I liked the suggestion of what to call a 70+ seat pickup in the House (and at this point, I think that's a LOW estimate):

A Teabaggin'

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 03:04 PM (/1kyA)

18
BTW, check the old post again. I picked 111 because 107 had been claimed by somebody.

Yeah, oops. Had him on my little list, but got distracted and then skipped him when I was writing the post. Fixed, thanks.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at October 26, 2010 03:04 PM (XVaFd)

Posted by: MikeTheMoose at October 26, 2010 07:01 PM (0q2P7)

I see what you did there.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 26, 2010 03:04 PM (AZWim)

20 OK from the last thread GO CELTICS, let's kick some Lebron ass tonight

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 26, 2010 03:05 PM (0GFWk)

21 WHAT?!? I said +64! I said 36 plus two-thirds of toss-ups = 64. Go back and re-read.

Oh, is that what you meant? I couldn't figure out what the hell you were saying.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at October 26, 2010 03:05 PM (XVaFd)

22
Like DiT and YNot, I went with 69.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 26, 2010 07:04 PM (AZWim)

They went with "69", and I love it!

Posted by: Barney Fag at October 26, 2010 03:05 PM (v1gw3)

23 Here's my +64 prediction: http://minx.cc/?blog=86&post=307192#c11135008

Posted by: Eric Lindholm at October 26, 2010 03:06 PM (EX2z8)

24 Slublog 65
Dave 69
Drew 74

Prognosticators such as you three will not be first, you will _^be b_^elow me!

Posted by: ya2daup at October 26, 2010 03:06 PM (yRrAd)

25 The lukewarm shall be proven correct! 51 in the House, 7 in the Senate.

Posted by: Log Cabin at October 26, 2010 03:06 PM (OF0tv)

GF-

The red jelly bean test from just the responses on that thread for the House was a mean of +69 and mode of +72.

Posted by: RichatUF at October 26, 2010 03:06 PM (hc6AS)

27 Man, I leave that hanging curve and all you guys manage is a bunt and a grounder to third.

;-)

Posted by: Y-not at October 26, 2010 03:07 PM (UcOiF)

28 Eric, you wrote: "RCP says +36 now and I'm giving 2/3rds of 43 toss-ups: 36 + (.66 * 43) = +64 seats for the GOP."

I was told there would be no math.

Posted by: Gabriel Malor at October 26, 2010 03:08 PM (XVaFd)

29 GO CELTICS, let's kick some Lebron ass tonight

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 26, 2010 07:05 PM (0GFWk)

Preach.

Meanwhile, I'm taking my talents to the restroom. (thank you Bill Simmons)

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 26, 2010 03:08 PM (AZWim)

30 OK, a prediction spread of 35 to 111.

*Let me put on my Amazing Kreskin costum*

I hereby predict that Gabriel Malor will live to be from between 35 to 111 years old...

Aren't I just AMAZING?

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 26, 2010 03:08 PM (tJjm/)

31 Who Cares! We got work to do.

Posted by: journolist at October 26, 2010 03:08 PM (O/NP5)

32 Retard-Strength Fanboyism Methos, you're a better man for it.

Posted by: fluffy wants to party with you, Cowboy at October 26, 2010 03:09 PM (SwkdU)

33 8 What was the mean and median Gabe?
Maybe Geoff can do a bell curve graph. Or a pie chart, I like pie.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 26, 2010 07:01 PM (ruu60)

/ statistics pedant mode on

A histogram is the type of graph you want (or a dot plot); whether or not there is a bell curve depends upon our picks

/ statistics pedant mode off

Posted by: ya2daup at October 26, 2010 03:10 PM (yRrAd)

34 Ha-ha. I guess I got too excited and gave way too much detail. +64 baby! It's a thumpin!

Posted by: Eric Lindholm at October 26, 2010 03:10 PM (EX2z8)

House - 95+

Senate - 13

If you're gonna dream, aim high.....

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 03:11 PM (/1kyA)

36 Net of +110.

The Republicans look to be vulnerable in exactly four seats, two of which they may actually lose in LA-2 and DE-AL. I'm treating anything else from "Leans Dem" through "Safe Republican" on RCP as a probable Republican gain if the "wave" trends of 2006 hold up with another few added as "under the radar" wins.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at October 26, 2010 03:12 PM (b8JnP)

37 I prefer to use weighted numbers. Therefore, if either Frank or Dingell (and what a combination of names that is!) loses, then that is worth 10 seats in the count, especially when the lamentation of Chris Matthews is added in.

Otherwise, I pick around 75-80. I think Indiana will be solid GOP except for Carson holding his Indianapolis area seat.

Posted by: Miss Marple at October 26, 2010 03:12 PM (aXJHp)

38 http://tinyurl.com/3y323k5
More on SEIU having control of all clark co (vegas) nevada's voting machines

Posted by: dagny at October 26, 2010 03:13 PM (HCshg)

39 I predict the House 47, Senate 8 and Michael Jordan will be held to under 100 points.

Posted by: CrustyB at October 26, 2010 03:13 PM (qzgbP)

40 WHERE IS RPT WHERE IS GREG RR THE WORLD WONDERS

I just love posting this bastardized quote!

Posted by: ya2daup at October 26, 2010 03:14 PM (yRrAd)

41 I predict the House 47, Senate 8 and Michael Jordan will be held to under 100 points. Posted by: CrustyB at October 26, 2010 07:13 PM (qzgbP) Ah ya know Jordan is retired right?

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 26, 2010 03:14 PM (0GFWk)

42 2⁶^and2³

Posted by: AE at October 26, 2010 03:15 PM (kSfPT)

43 Saw this from a Prog at another board (re: racist meme)

That tactic isn't working, as we're about to find out, the hard way.

Less smugness and more humility would be a good strategy for re-building what's left of our party after the GOP pulverizes us in the mid terms.

Posted by: Blackford Oakes at October 26, 2010 03:15 PM (0IR+C)

44 Ultimate AOSHQ Eeyore

My brown ass.

32*!

*50 if we counted votes, but we don't.

Posted by: oblig. at October 26, 2010 03:17 PM (x7Ao8)

45 1,2,3,4...I predict a thumb war.

Posted by: Sissy Hankshaw at October 26, 2010 03:17 PM (+BE95)

46 Excellet. They're getting TEABAGGED. Hope you enjoy it you lefty pervs, freaks, and stoners.

Posted by: dagny at October 26, 2010 03:17 PM (HCshg)

47 Does this eliminate the race card?

Posted by: dagny at October 26, 2010 03:18 PM (HCshg)

48 I told Ace 80 when I was drunk the other night, so I'm sticking with that.

Posted by: thisheavenlyhell at October 26, 2010 03:19 PM (8uDC8)

49 #44 LOL! That is funny!

Posted by: Cowboyup at October 26, 2010 03:19 PM (5ujO0)

50 42 I predict the House 47, Senate 8 and Michael Jordan will be held to under 100 points.
Posted by: CrustyB at October 26, 2010 07:13 PM (qzgbP)

Ah ya know Jordan is retired right?

Posted by: nevergiveup

Then it's a safe bet, isn't it?

Posted by: CrustyB at October 26, 2010 03:19 PM (qzgbP)

51 House 68, Senate 10. Go for broke, baby. I wanna see an evisceratin'!

Posted by: Linlithgow at October 26, 2010 03:19 PM (Gim9y)

52 With Dem. cheating- very nice Dem majority
Without Dem cheating- Republican super majority

Posted by: shibumi at October 26, 2010 03:20 PM (OKZrE)

53 Some of you are too pessimistic.

RCP currently has +48 leans/likelies R and only +2 leans D, yielding +46.

Then they have 34 toss ups, only two of which are R.

So if half the toss ups go R, that's +15 (in the worst case and we lose the two Rs).

So you gotta believe we're going to at least get to +61.

Posted by: Y-not at October 26, 2010 03:20 PM (UcOiF)

54 Then it's a safe bet, isn't it? Posted by: CrustyB at October 26, 2010 07:19 PM (qzgbP) Point taken

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 26, 2010 03:20 PM (0GFWk)

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 03:21 PM (L0wbB)

56
Doesn't fucking matter.

Joe Miller is gonna rig this contest.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 03:22 PM (L0wbB)

57 I predict 60 in the House but we don't take the Senate - maybe we'll be up by 7

Posted by: CoolCzech at October 26, 2010 03:22 PM (tJjm/)

58
any CO-ians here?

I hear Salazar's little bro might get ousted.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 03:23 PM (DTy7x)

59 Gee, a measly 91 House seats doesn't get me out of the ". . ." range? Well, when exactly 91 are gained, I want a slot of Fox News--right after Dick Morris and CAC....

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2010 03:24 PM (gMzAL)

60 I'll say 65 House and 8 Senate.

An honest election would give the GOP a gain of 70+ House and 9 Senate seats but I'm guessing the Democrat DUTV (Dig Up The Vote) operation will save half a dozen at-risk reps and at least one Senator.

Posted by: JEM at October 26, 2010 03:24 PM (o+SC1)

61 So far I hab it at one for 'tuck' and one for 'no tuck'.

Posted by: Empathetic Justice Sotomayor at October 26, 2010 03:24 PM (+BE95)

62 Hey, I voting Dem, twice!

Posted by: Wilt Chamberlain at October 26, 2010 03:25 PM (PWj+8)

63 Cross-posted from "post-racial president" ... thread:

Is there a blogger, cob logger or poster here with the mad Photoshop skills to recreate this Slurpee pose with our favorite racial profiler as the target?

Posted by: ya2daup at October 26, 2010 03:25 PM (yRrAd)

64 Methos, you're a better man for it.

Thank you for your support. I would have gone up to the 117 of CAC's biggest demplosion scenario, but I wanted to stay closer to 100. I really think the wave is going to be bigger than anyone will predict for the record.

Did any of our trolls make predictions? I mean if they're serious about the astroturf, they really should have.

Posted by: Methos at October 26, 2010 03:26 PM (Ew1k4)

I suppose that's better than Pollyanish.

Lol. Think of it this way: if you're right, you'll go down in political prognosticating history.

Posted by: TiredWench at October 26, 2010 03:26 PM (oPceJ)

66 House : +10
Senate : +1

Posted by: Greg at October 26, 2010 03:27 PM (LLZiU)

67 ahh, Matt Damon?

Posted by: Matt Damon at October 26, 2010 03:27 PM (PWj+8)

68
Let's up the ante...to, say, left nuts?

Pick goobernatorial races, too!

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 03:29 PM (DTy7x)

69 67 House : +10
Senate : +1

Posted by: Greg at October 26, 2010 07:27 PM (LLZiU)

Greg uses octal math

Posted by: I Am Greg's Inflatable Girlfriend at October 26, 2010 03:29 PM (PWj+8)

70 71 Soothsayer is Allapundit--who knew!

Posted by: runningrn at October 26, 2010 07:30 PM (qY2Vc)

His SO?

Posted by: I Am Greg's Inflatable Girlfriend at October 26, 2010 03:30 PM (PWj+8)

71 I predict.. PAIN! _{^{(got any gold you don't want?)}}

Posted by: Mr. T at October 26, 2010 03:32 PM (f0UXf)

72 I hear Salazar's little bro might get ousted.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 07:23 PM (DTy7x)

Up until recently I was.

Yes, Scott Tipton is now favored. Lil Salazar has been running the fake moderate bullshit for 4 years, but he represents the Western Slope, which is rather conservative. If he survives, we aren't in a wave, and the eeyores will win this predicting contest.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 26, 2010 03:32 PM (AZWim)

73
Alls I want for an early Christmas present is 41 seats in the House and just one Senate seat -- Reid's.

Moar is better. But I'll be content with just that.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 03:34 PM (DTy7x)

74 I predict . . . beer!

Posted by: Dan Collins at October 26, 2010 03:34 PM (PQ46P)

Alls I want for an early Christmas present is 41 seats in the House and just one Senate seat -- Reid's.

With SEIU in charge of NV voting? Guess who wins.

Posted by: Soona at October 26, 2010 03:36 PM (KCM5r)

76 2 questions: If I have a small amount to give to a candidate(s), say $50, where can that do the most based on the individual races? I live in NC and I think the R's are in great shape in my immediate races.

Secondly, can someone loan me $50?

Posted by: The Hammer at October 26, 2010 03:36 PM (32ubA)

77 Lol. Think of it this way: if you're right, you'll go down in political prognosticating history.

Which will mildly make up for the Nov 3 ban for excessive smugness.

Posted by: Methos at October 26, 2010 03:36 PM (Ew1k4)

78 My answer is 92 in the House...

With Hoyer, Dingel and Frank the surprise losers.

Posted by: Mary Beth at October 26, 2010 03:37 PM (uGE+P)

79 Know what this election cycle reminds me of? Remember after the 2004 election, the pictures of all those lib tools on the Internet, bawling like babies and apologizing to the world for Bush's reelection?

That was a pudding moment if there ever was one

Posted by: Ombudsman at October 26, 2010 03:38 PM (c1oyg)

I predicted a 62 seat pickup in the House and 11 seats in the Senate

btw I had a ground report I wrote on FL posted at Hillbuzz

Posted by: YRM (The Youngest Ace Commenter Who Freaking Can't Wait Until Nov 2 And Hopes Rangers Win) at October 26, 2010 03:38 PM (xQuuU)

haha the Taiwanese did a Stewert Hearts Obama animation

http://tinyurl.com/2ddhnje

Posted by: robtr at October 26, 2010 03:39 PM (hVDig)

82 Holy crap! Funniest thing ever on DailyKos! "Nate Silver currently gives Democrats a 21% chance of keeping control of the House. Pollster.com also gives Democrats a 21% chance. Seems like a consensus to me. With that in mind, here are three seemingly common things that are less likely than Democrats winning the House in 2010: First, itÂ’s less likely that your birthday is in either August or September (18%) than it is for Democrats to keep control of the House. However, we all know lots of people born in either August or September. Second, your odds of rolling doubles in Monopoly, thus winning a second roll or getting you out of jail, are lower (17%) than the odds of Democrats winning the House. But everyone who has ever played Monopoly has rolled doubles many times. Third, itÂ’s less likely for an NFL team with the ball, and trailing by seven points at the start of the 4th quarter, to win the game (about 12%) than it is for Democrats to keep the House. Still, every football fan, player and announcer knows comebacks like that happen all the time. Two Sundays ago, it even happened twice in one day (here and here). A third, even larger comeback happened on that same day. Yes, Democrats are behind. However, a 21% chance of victory is far from being defeated. We are still in this, and there is still time to make a difference. Contribute $5 to keeping the Democratic majorities on Orange to Blue now." And then the comments! Read some of the comments! Their tears are like sweet nectar...

Posted by: Joffen at October 26, 2010 03:39 PM (Mf3m7)

83
yeah, Ombudsman, those pics were sickening.

Then someone clever posted his own pic holding a piece of paper:

America...Fuck Yeah!

I remember it like it was yesterday. Damn that was a long night.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 26, 2010 03:40 PM (DTy7x)

84 How do we get rid of SEIU? Seriously. They need to have a big target painted on their behinds. Purple, naturally.

Posted by: Y-not at October 26, 2010 03:41 PM (UcOiF)

85 I wonder how many more counties and cities have SEIU running and maintaining their voting machines??????????

Posted by: dagny at October 26, 2010 03:41 PM (MvQAs)

86 Well, I predict +73 in the House to carry through the Tea Party theme.

Posted by: Otis Criblecoblis at October 26, 2010 03:42 PM (kJXs1)

87 And +10 for the Senate.

Posted by: Otis Criblecoblis at October 26, 2010 03:44 PM (kJXs1)

Posted by: Joffen at October 26, 2010 07:39 PM (Mf3m7)

it's 2008 reversed when we were in denial and talked about an "stay up all night victory" and once those words are used, you know it's over

Posted by: YRM (The Youngest Ace Commenter Who Freaking Can't Wait Until Nov 2 And Hopes Rangers Win) at October 26, 2010 03:46 PM (xQuuU)

89 I had a ground report I wrote on FL posted at Hillbuzz Excellent! Got a link?

Posted by: fluffy at October 26, 2010 03:47 PM (SwkdU)

90 Just got a call for the Mikulski/O'Malley campaigns to let my brother, registered independent, that he can now vote early.

That's the second call from them in as many days. Wow. The Ds are really pushing the e/v thing hard in Maryland.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2010 03:49 PM (bAySe)

91 Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2010 07:49 PM

Sit on his head and give him a nuggie until he promises to vote R.

It's your duty as his sibling.

For the Republic!

Posted by: Y-not at October 26, 2010 03:52 PM (UcOiF)

92 The dems pay their get out the vote crowd.

Posted by: dagny at October 26, 2010 03:55 PM (MvQAs)

93 Is there a blogger, cob logger or poster here with the mad Photoshop skills to recreate this Slurpee pose with our favorite racial profiler as the target?

I can do it. But your link is broken. And who is the racial profiler? I'm new here.

Posted by: Zombie Teddy Kennedy at October 26, 2010 04:00 PM (pELFl)

94 435 R - 0 D. Just in the House.

Posted by: km at October 26, 2010 04:04 PM (oUaBK)

95 67 House : +10 (That's Dems +10)
Senate : +1

Posted by: Greg at October 26, 2010 04:07 PM (LLZiU)

Don't forget who's mostly in charge of the vote counting. And the prosecution of voting fraud. And the ID requirements (or lack thereof). In most of the 'close' districts a Republican will have to win by 5% to win.

Republicans gain, 40 seats.

Posted by: Glenmore at October 26, 2010 04:08 PM (QJZcF)

97 I was extremely drunk when I made my predictions.When I told my husband he laughed at me. Oh well, we shall see....

Posted by: jewells45 at October 26, 2010 04:26 PM (Z71Vg)

Ha, CAC has forgotten to factor in stupidity. Eighty-nine is a reachable target given that the Democrats have four national voices, all of them belonging to idiots.

Harry, you're desperate, call all Latinos voting for Republican's race-traitors! Wait, he already did that.

Obama, you know you want to push that dopy car metaphore beyond insipid to the really offensive. Wait, he did that too when he told us to get in the back seat. Shades o' Rosa Parks, Rush was flogging that one today.

Come on, Nancy, say something stupid! Ah, too many to count.

Come on Biden, say something, er... stupider!

(Lube up the chicken, they still have a week to go...)

Posted by: Warthog at October 26, 2010 04:38 PM (Bckhj)

99 I predict...screw it. I don't know what the hell I'm talking about. Fuck'em and vote.

Posted by: HiHo at October 26, 2010 05:03 PM (zPc39)

100 72 seat pickup in house for Republicans.

Posted by: nora trane at October 26, 2010 05:20 PM (+gdWM)

101 House: 63
Senate 8

Posted by: Dodd at October 26, 2010 05:28 PM (AvEwP)

102 using a school computer and didn't want to leave my email for anyone else to see if they happened to pull up Ace.

Posted by: Dave C at October 26, 2010 05:46 PM (j3HcR)