February 15, 2010
— Gabriel Malor DrewM. sends this along as counter-point to my Eeyore-ism on retaking the Senate:
So I think the GOP will be favored in Indiana however the candidate field shakes out this week, and I think the GOP is favored in Arkansas, Nevada, Colorado, Pennsylvania, Delaware, and North Dakota as well. Win all those and you have a 52-48 Democratic Senate. Beyond that you have Illinois looking like a toss up and then California and New York looking like they definitely have the potential to become highly competitive based on the incumbents' lack of popularity and Washington and Wisconsin as maybe the longest shots for the GOP but possible with an A list candidate.And really, if it's a 50-50 situation does anyone trust Joe Lieberman not to throw his hat with the Republicans? Three months ago I would have said Republicans have about a 5% chance of taking back the Senate. Now I'd put it more in the one in three chance range, and rising by the week. And who knows when the bad news for Democrats will stop pouring in...
Thanks, Drew.
I'm not ruling out Republican wins in AR, IL, PA, CO, or IN. That's why I wrote "toss up" next to those races. But, I highly doubt that Republicans are going to take Boxer's or Gillibrand's seats and anyone who holds up Scott Brown as an example is ignoring the unusually perfect GOP candidate, the exceptionally bad Democrat candidate, and the extremely unusual circumstances of the special election. None of Boxer's GOP challengers has managed to beat her in the polls yet, even though Democrats are having the worst year of their life.
Posted by: Gabriel Malor at
08:03 AM
| Comments (76)
Post contains 283 words, total size 2 kb.
I would hope that after the promises Obama made that the public does throw his party out of control in both houses in congress. The left has thrived on campaigning to the right, and then governing as hard core leftists.
It would certainly serve as a wakeup call to RINOs and those mythical "moderate" Democrats.
Posted by: 18-1 at February 15, 2010 08:09 AM (bgcml)
It'd be great if we do get a significant power-shift to the Right, but I see no indications that it's a sure thing. Worth hoping for and working for, yes, but no slam-dunk.
A 50-50 Senate would be just dandy. I'm guessing some of the Dems would take that as an indication that they'd better be damn careful about mindless adherence to the Osama Obama Totalitarian Line.
Posted by: hope 'n' spare change at February 15, 2010 08:10 AM (Jhscs)
Posted by: Stealth Gay Academic Conservative at February 15, 2010 08:10 AM (aFROA)
Posted by: Paul Revere at February 15, 2010 08:13 AM (epgqp)
this state elected fucking HILLARY! not a chance in hell that seat goes R.
Posted by: Unclefacts, Summoner of Meteors, and Buckets of Scorn for the Left at February 15, 2010 08:14 AM (erIg9)
Posted by: Concerned Conservative Christian Republican at February 15, 2010 08:15 AM (1fanL)
Posted by: MRI at February 15, 2010 08:16 AM (aVQo/)
Posted by: Hammer at February 15, 2010 08:16 AM (GkYyh)
No way MO flips this cycle, short of polls staying open until Thanksgiving in North St. Louis
Posted by: eddiebear at February 15, 2010 08:17 AM (wnU1W)
Posted by: Hammer at February 15, 2010 08:19 AM (GkYyh)
Posted by: Dr. Spank at February 15, 2010 08:19 AM (muUqs)
Gabe, polling isn't as accurate on midterm races as it is for presidential election years. There's a good chance that the GOP candidates' supporters will be highly motivated to turn out while Boxer's supporters could be discouraged.
Not saying it WILL happen, but polling is especially weird in midterms and turnout could be skewed if the feeling all day that day is a Republican wipeout of Dems in eastern states.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at February 15, 2010 08:20 AM (SFRtJ)
I think we are looking at a wave election, people will be voting against the Democrat party more than for any particular Republican candidates. So I think it's possible to get either Boxer or Gillebrand's seats regardless of their opponents. And if we get Gillebrand, I don't see how a voter votes against her for being a rubber stamp on the Obama agenda, but votes for Schumer, so if we get her, we get both. And Malamutts list leaves out WI and WA which have shown poll trouble for the Dems recently, so I don't think we're talking about a 51-49 Republican takeover, but a 53-48 or so.
In any case, the folks who care about the reputation vis a vis predictions (Gabe, most pollsters) aren't going to go out on a limb to suggest the most extreme outcome, so I feel safe assuming the election results will be better than just about anyone (outside Dick Morris) predicts at this point.
Posted by: Methos at February 15, 2010 08:20 AM (Xsi7M)
Posted by: that guy that notes other posters obscure cultural references at February 15, 2010 08:21 AM (PD1tk)
Posted by: Brucein socal at February 15, 2010 08:21 AM (MX7La)
Posted by: Dustoff at February 15, 2010 08:21 AM (jdXw+)
Posted by: exdem13 at February 15, 2010 08:23 AM (lYKj1)
Posted by: Realist at February 15, 2010 08:23 AM (Hu/Da)
I'm going to pray about it.
Posted by: Concerned Conservative Christian Republican at February 15, 2010 08:24 AM (1fanL)
wow the GOP is really kicking off this big election year with a bang, huh!?!
The GOP hasn't lifted a finger to win big in 2010. This is pathetic. We're not gonna take the House this year. We're not gonna win shit with these assholes.
Posted by: This is Posted By at February 15, 2010 08:25 AM (a4A0f)
Posted by: Brucein socal at February 15, 2010 12:21 PM (MX7La)
Actually, that is an interesting point. I doubt much of the electorate has been paying close attention to what has been going on with AGW - unfortunately. But it really does seem to be falling apart.
If the pattern continues, and AGW is a joke come Nov, what effect does that have on the election? Obama will take a hit since he has been pretty public about it, but what about the Democrats as a whole?
Posted by: 18-1 at February 15, 2010 08:25 AM (bgcml)
IF Pataki gets in the race in NY, he'll win. That would make things very interesting.
Posted by: DrewM. at February 15, 2010 08:25 AM (9B5OK)
We are going to take the Senate back. And fighting against that so that Obama owns the failure is a real mistake. Either we believe he's a disaster and we fight him 100% or we don't. Every single Senate seat matters hugely. Ginsburg's replacement is going to be voted on by this Senate. Maybe Stevens's (probably that will happen much sooner, though).
They had a huge advantage and it will go away. Obama isn't bill Clinton and he will be a lame duck instantly. The GOP knows they have to put shit together and get it to Obama for a signature. Balance the budget a couple of times and get some tax cuts on businesses and watch the economy fucking blossom.
and we can remind the voters just who balanced the budget last time.
foreign policy is simply too important for a douche like Obama to ride to reelection on the GOP's fiscal sanity (or less insanity, really). He looks WEAK, and America is going to elect whoever stands against him in 2012.
but stop thinking long term. Shit changes too fast in today's world. Let's take what we can and play to win in 2010 in every race we can. If you can afford, you've never had a chance to donate to worth causes like this year. If you can volunteer, there is probably a close race near you somewhere. If you aren't running for your precinct to keep fixing the GOP, you better know the guy in your place is not a dumbass RINO.
Posted by: ducks Under Oklahoma ASCEND at February 15, 2010 08:26 AM (dUOK+)
Posted by: ducks Under Oklahoma ASCEND at February 15, 2010 08:27 AM (dUOK+)
Posted by: bowel movement at February 15, 2010 08:28 AM (Fd5yK)
Call on Thompson
Call on Pataki
Rossi doesn't want it? Funny, he wanted revenge against Gregiore in 2008. Put up or shut up, Dino. Now's your chance for revenge.
Tommy Boy could be convinced just to serve a single term, all it takes.
Someone bash Pataki over the skull until he starts drooling and says yes.
While a vegetable, he's still smarter than Gillibrandy.
As for us here in California, we have the richest bitch on the planet who somehow buys the cheapest (and most mystifying) ad possible fighting against Tom Campbell and a screamer from Orange County.
If the controversy over AirBoard 32 and the global warming job killing studies keeps rising, and we run Campbell or Devore against Babs ON THAT ISSUE ALONE, we win it by 3 or 4 points.
Posted by: theoneandonlyfinn at February 15, 2010 08:28 AM (lV4Fs)
and before you silly armchair cheerleaders call me eeyore, name one thing the Republicans have done that shows they really care about winning. Name one thing where the Republicans have shown they're proactive in 2010.
Simply put, the Republicans aren't gonna win if they keep sitting on their thumbs. The Democrats are already changing gears and have put back on their 'fiscal conservative/tax-cutting' hats. The Republicans, in September, will find themselves in contests with moderates, not radical leftwingers.
Posted by: This is Posted By at February 15, 2010 08:29 AM (a4A0f)
That deserves a flaming skull.
Posted by: Dr. Spank at February 15, 2010 08:30 AM (muUqs)
If the pattern continues, and AGW
is a joke come Nov, what effect does that have on the election? Obama
will take a hit since he has been pretty public about it, but what about
the Democrats as a whole?
Posted by: 18-1 at February 15, 2010 12:25 PM (bgcml)
It is interesting. Because either way, the warmists are screwed. Either they were hoaxed, which calls their judgment into question, or they were in on the scam, which makes them crooks.
Posted by: FUBAR at February 15, 2010 08:30 AM (1fanL)
Carly Fiorina 42 Babs 46
Chucky Devour 42 Babs 47
Bruce Campbell 41 Babs 45
2 of 3 w/n the margin of error. AGAIN.
Boxer is no shoo-in.
Posted by: theoneandonlyfinn at February 15, 2010 08:32 AM (lV4Fs)
Posted by: This is Posted By at February 15, 2010 12:29 PM (a4A0f)
Whatever Eeyore. What concerns me is that, for some reason, my thumb smells like poopie.
Posted by: Senator X, (R - XX) at February 15, 2010 08:33 AM (1fanL)
You guys are abusing the flaming skull.
Besides, we ain't won shit, yet. The last I checked the Democrats had huge majorities in Congress, control of the Executive branch, and Al Fucking Franken is a member of the United States Senate.
Also, Ace should be the only one to fire up the flaming skull.
Posted by: This is Posted By at February 15, 2010 08:34 AM (a4A0f)
I kinda want him gone today, but maybe that wouldn't work. He cleaned house at RNC and that means it's going to be hard to get rolling without him for a while.
But he's counter productive. Ideally, I'd replace him with Romney, but I know Romney wants to run in 2012 (and I'm glad he'll ensure the actual nominee has to compete with him... even though Romney's a ridiculously poor leader he is a very skilled politician).
Maybe put Huckabee in charge of the party? Or Fred! Better yet, someone very credible with the TEA party. Perhaps that person could hit the ground today calling to clean up the GOP and then take over the party.
Not saying Palin, because she is a good, honest leader, but she would really be great at RNC in many respects. And while I'd be so happy with her in the White House, I know a lot of people think she is unelectable (I think she's actually harder to demonize that the rest of the field at this point).
Posted by: ducks Under Oklahoma ASCEND at February 15, 2010 08:36 AM (dUOK+)
Posted by: D. at February 15, 2010 08:36 AM (/rqW8)
Posted by: AmishDude at February 15, 2010 08:37 AM (T0NGe)
* Chuck Devore, who is a true Tea Party activist and has been inspirational to people of all political leanings.
* The CA Senate race is of interest nationally, and the independent Democrats of HillBuzz (who were a key force in promoting "Hottie McAwesome" Brown in MA, are providing support and spreading the news nationwide.
* Her contemptible treatment of Brig. Gen. Michael Walsh will not be forgotten by Californians.
* Her support of Cap-and-Trade -- the state has an equivalent standard that is killing California economically.
You can call her "Former Senator"; she worked hard to get that title, too.
Posted by: Mutnodjmet at February 15, 2010 08:39 AM (9/yef)
Bummer, I was thinking that the chainsaw hand would be useful in the debates.
Posted by: toby928 at February 15, 2010 08:39 AM (PD1tk)
Posted by: Dr. Spank at February 15, 2010 08:41 AM (muUqs)
2010 is gonna make 94 look like patty-cake. Do not doubt me.
Posted by: Brucein socal at February 15, 2010 08:41 AM (MX7La)
Demonsheep would eat the Babs voters and the ACORN fraudsters, ensuring all ballots cast would be for itself. Fiorina's got a tougher row to how.
Posted by: HeatherRadish at February 15, 2010 08:41 AM (mR7mk)
Posted by: Conan at February 15, 2010 08:44 AM (DTffv)
Don't count on a GOP senate this year, but with these numbers you can bank on a majority in 2012 or even a supermajority.
From "Liberal Realignment" to "Fiscal Con Supermajority" in 4 short years. Hell of a job, Obambi!
Posted by: DoDoGuRu at February 15, 2010 08:47 AM (31pnY)
Hell yes.
I trust Joe to follow his morals almost all the time. I don't agree with him on many, perhaps most issues, but that is a patriotic man who commands some respect. He is not Arlen Specter.
If Joe was president today, our nation would be saved. He isn't on my top 100 list of prospectives, but if the Democrats nominated him they would save their party, too.
Posted by: ducks Under Oklahoma ASCEND at February 15, 2010 08:47 AM (dUOK+)
Being Senate Majority Ldr. is like being trail boss on a feral cat roundup
This is beauty right here. Which I will steal without shame or reluctance.
Posted by: Blue Hen at February 15, 2010 08:48 AM (R2fpr)
I remember well driving through there when Kalipornia was going through their self-inflicted grey-outs some years ago. The wind was blowing, and half of them weren't turning. Now I am in favor of about any energy that doesn't come from the damned Arabs, but the Kalipornia government has demonstrated extraordinary abilities to fuck up a wet dream. You'd think the RNC staff was running the place or something...
Posted by: Hatchet Five at February 15, 2010 08:48 AM (DTffv)
Demonsheep does not eat fellow FCINO's. Thus Babs would be spared.
Posted by: Demon Sheep at February 15, 2010 08:50 AM (DTffv)
Posted by: Jean at February 15, 2010 08:54 AM (PjevJ)
Posted by: Jim at February 15, 2010 08:55 AM (y2gov)
Posted by: Vic at February 15, 2010 09:03 AM (QrA9E)
We got our miracle. It was Obama beating that squish McCain. Leftism has been exposed to the entire country for what it is. Hell, the global warming scam is showing leftism to the entire world for the hoax it is.
Posted by: Brucein socal at February 15, 2010 09:09 AM (MX7La)
Yes, because Boxer is everyone's dream candidate. True perfection.
Posted by: ken twatson at February 15, 2010 09:13 AM (FlJ2V)
Posted by: Someone who isn't Hillary at February 15, 2010 09:28 AM (1fanL)
Losers - who needs 'em? Better leave it to the Democrats than be forced to associate with Paulist scum.
Posted by: Adjoran at February 15, 2010 09:40 AM (HeULl)
Wow -- Impressive speech.
Posted by: pbrown at February 15, 2010 09:43 AM (XIUQZ)
Posted by: Iblis at February 15, 2010 09:50 AM (9221z)
Posted by: sifty at February 15, 2010 09:53 AM (UQs2y)
It makes no difference what the makeup of the Modern Supine Congress is ....
Obongo's gonna rely on Executive Diktat and his Czar system
Any of you not notice that ? Hmm ? More RINOP = same FAIL
Three Boxes 1) soap 2) ballot 3) cartridge
Notice Obos' reaction to #1 ? Seen any Indicators on how this administration feels about Freedom of Speech ? Didya notice any commentary during his SOTU speech, maybe directed toward that arena ? How about Religion other than Muzziedom ? Hmm ? Think they have plans for #2 box ? Any guesses on how Statists view "instrumentality" and box #3 ?
Deduce. Go ahead, give it a shot Hint: follow the data
Posted by: OhioDude at February 15, 2010 09:59 AM (mDeen)
This still doesn't break our way. At 48-48-2, we would need both Liebermann and Sanders otherwise, it's still a tie and Biden breaks the tie. Sanders will never caucus with us in a bazillion years.
Posted by: Steve L. at February 15, 2010 10:15 AM (mIIVr)
Posted by: exdem13 at February 15, 2010 10:25 AM (lYKj1)
Posted by: Mutnodjmet at February 15, 2010 10:52 AM (9/yef)
Sanders will never caucus with us in a bazillion years.
Neither will old Joe. He has a CRU rating of 17 so I never have seen what everyone sees in him. He votes solidly with the Dems.
Posted by: Vic at February 15, 2010 11:20 AM (QrA9E)
His rhetoric is calm, collected, thoughtful, and, apart from national security as described... almost inevitably liberal. His record speaks for itself.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at February 15, 2010 12:08 PM (swuwV)
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Posted by: ParisParamus at February 15, 2010 08:06 AM (0YPx8)