December 03, 2010

Debt Commission Fails To Pass Recommendations
— DrewM

Pretty much just a technicality that doesn't really matter much.

Eleven of the 18 members of President Obama's fiscal commission voted Friday to embrace a bipartisan commission's controversial plan to slash deficits by nearly $4 trillion over the next decade -- too few votes to command quick action in Congress, but far more than even the panel's most ardent supporters had predicted just a few weeks ago.

...The chairman of the Senate Budget Committee, Kent Conrad (D-N.D.), also voted yes, and Durbin predicted that Conrad would use the commission's report as a basis for constructing the party's next fiscal blueprint early in 2011.

Incoming House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wisc.) has pledged to do the same, even though he and the two other House Republicans on the panel voted against the package. Their opposition was based primarily on the commission's implicit embrace of Obama's health-care overhaul.

Via Philip Klein of The American Spectator, here's how the votes broke down.

I get why Republicans voted yes on this, it was kind of free vote that had no real meaning but the alternative, voting no after spending a year campaigning on cutting spending and reducing the deficit, would have been problematic.

Like any plan of this nature (crafted by 'wise-men' from both parties invested in big government) there's far too much emphasis on taxes (one trillion in new revenue by 2020) and not nearly enough on non-defense spending cuts and entitlement reform.

There are some basic problems with the revenue portion of the plan.

There's really no way to guarantee that any money raised (assuming it materializes which is not a given) will be spent on reducing the debt and not new spending.

More problematic to me is the number...one trillion dollars. That's not even enough to cover the eventual costs of the DemocraticObama so-called 'stimulus' which will clock in at $3.27 trillion.

Personally, any plan that doesn't start with cutting discretionary spending back to pre-Obama levels and then cut from there is a non-starter.

Of course, all of that is just a drop in the bucket compared to what we are going to have to do with entitlements since that's where the real money and problem is.

So no, the debt commission didn't get enough votes to force a vote in the Senate but nothing is stopping Harry Reid from bringing it up this afternoon for a vote (it's good to be the Majority Leader) but it was never designed to be voted on. Democrats (and yes Republicans) have run up astronomical spending numbers, they aren't about to let a handful of 'commissioners' undo it all with one vote.

Now that this charade designed to give cover to Democrats for their two year long spending binge in the run up to the midterms is behind us, we can get on to the serious business of building a plan that can actually get some votes in Congress. I have my doubts that's even possible but we'll see.

Posted by: DrewM at 08:45 AM | Comments (27)
Post contains 508 words, total size 3 kb.

1 I'm live-blogging the feed from the Obama visit to Afghanistan at http://rightasusual.blogspot.com/

Posted by: LindaF at December 03, 2010 08:47 AM (xzYrS)

2 "recommendations"

Posted by: Spelling Pedant at December 03, 2010 08:49 AM (264lw)

3
Yet another battle won by the people who are on the wrong side of the issue...

Posted by: Soothsayer for RNC Chair at December 03, 2010 08:50 AM (uFokq)

4

This was about as unexpected as the new unemployment numbers.

Posted by: Burn the Witch at December 03, 2010 08:52 AM (fLHQe)

5 This thing was the Iraq study group all over again. Remember them? Remember how revered they were? For a time? And now? Milli Vanilli had more staying power

Posted by: Blue Hen at December 03, 2010 08:53 AM (R2fpr)

6 "Like any plan of this nature (crafted by 'wise-men' from both parties invested in big government) there's far too much emphasis on taxes" "Wise men" my arse. My FIL was a dairy farmer and even though he never studied economics or went to college he know that he could only get so much milk out of a cow before any more attempts at milking endangered it's health.

Posted by: Nighthawk at December 03, 2010 08:56 AM (02uN6)

7
speaking more about economics...

In this Alternate Bizarro Universe we live in, the administration believes in Bottom-Up Economics. That is, poor people are  the job creators; the driving force in the economy.

So we shall tax more, give that money to the poor, and watch as the economy expands!

Posted by: Soothsayer for RNC Chair at December 03, 2010 08:57 AM (uFokq)

8 NO NEW TAXES!

Immediately cut spending in every department to 2007 levels.

Then start eliminating departments. I expected nothing from this panel and that is exactly what we got.

But Fox just couldn't understand why Republicans didn't agree with the panel.

And no, tax increases NEVER in the history of this country have ever gone to pay off the deficit. In fact, after every tax increase we have had a deficit increase. Mainly for two reasons. the Dems kill the economy and then they increase social spending.

Posted by: Vic at December 03, 2010 08:59 AM (e4sSD)

9 Posted by: Soothsayer for RNC Chair at December 03, 2010 12:57 PM (uFokq) They sneer at conservatives and "trickle down prosperity" while they implement policy to insure "trickle up poverty".

Posted by: Nighthawk at December 03, 2010 09:00 AM (02uN6)

10
btw, there's a new poll out in MA that shows Scott Brown ahead of all potential Democrat opponents, e.g., Vicki Kennedy, in 2012.


Posted by: Soothsayer for RNC Chair at December 03, 2010 09:01 AM (uFokq)

11 Like any plan of this nature (crafted by 'wise-men' from both parties invested in big government) there's far too much emphasis on taxes (one trillion in new revenue by 2020) and not nearly enough on non-defense spending cuts and entitlement reform.

Okay, let's nip this in the bud, right now:  Additional Taxes do not lead to additional revenue.  You might get a one year bump while everyone figures out how to shelter more of their money, but that's all you'll get.

We know that for the last umpteen years (I know it's at least 20, but I really think its more than that) Tax Revenue has been approximately 19% of GDP.  That's really all you're going to get.

So, no, the plan didn't have "one trillion in new revenue..." it CLAIMED to have that, but any objective analysis would have shown that to be completely false.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 03, 2010 09:02 AM (8y9MW)

12
Scott Brown: 48%
Deaddy Kennedy's Widow: 40%


that's not reassuring, to me

Posted by: Soothsayer for RNC Chair at December 03, 2010 09:03 AM (uFokq)

13 Posted by: Nighthawk at December 03, 2010 12:56 PM (02uN6)

That's simply not a valid statement. Your FIL needs to speak with the milk Czar before he decides for himself  how to run his business. For fuck's sake, he didn't even go to Exeter, much less Harvard!

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo ( NJConservative) at December 03, 2010 09:04 AM (LH6ir)

14 Scott Brown: 48%
Deaddy Kennedy's Widow: 40%


that's not reassuring, to me

Posted by: Soothsayer for RNC Chair

 

How's he doing against the dead Kennedy (the corpse, not the band)?

P.S. the latest corpse (provided patches doesn't get a new drivers license ad a prescription refill in the next month.)

Posted by: Blue Hen at December 03, 2010 09:06 AM (R2fpr)

15 As long as Democrats continue to try to protect their sacred cows (SS, Medicare, government schools, higher taxes) and the Republicans try to protect theirs (no new taxes, no cuts to Defense), our country is entirely screwed. I'm hacked off about this- obviously our country is going in the ditch unless Congress can start acting in our best interests (and that means cutting Defense too!). The whole thing reminds me of a rather famous incident in Guam I think, or somewhere else on the Pacific Rim: a jetliner full of people was coming in for a landing and had an in-flight emergency of some type. The pilot proposed one solution and the copilot proposed another. They fought over the controls until the plane crashed, killing all or most on board. The investigation discovered that- get this- either solution would have worked fine!

Posted by: DMG at December 03, 2010 09:08 AM (Du8+/)

16 I get why Republicans voted yes on this....




The Republican Senators voted for it (*ring* *ring* History calling) while the Republican Representatives voted against it.  We've seen this party division before, and we're going to see more of it over the next two years.






Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at December 03, 2010 09:09 AM (yea0z)

17 The biggest problem on the revenue side of this POS was that it presumed something along the lines of 21.5% of GDP would be collected in tax revenues going forward.

The long-term average is closer to 19% (which is also the basis for Paul Ryan's roadmap).

On the spending side, it didn't address Obamacare, as noted, and also didn't really cut spending. It cut the rate of increase in spending, which is the classic old Washington dodge.

We need 2 things: realistic revenue projections and real spending cuts. This was a non-starter and not a serious proposal.

Posted by: Andy at December 03, 2010 09:09 AM (5Rurq)

18 That's simply not a valid statement. Your FIL needs to speak with the milk Czar before he decides for himself how to run his business. For fuck's sake, he didn't even go to Exeter, much less Harvard! Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo ( NJConservative) at December 03, 2010 01:04 PM (LH6ir) That smells just like what he used to shovel out of the barn!

Posted by: Nighthawk at December 03, 2010 09:10 AM (02uN6)

19 I see Barky is in Afghanistan at this exact moment. I suppose Gibbsy or whoever suggested some TV time in front of America's fighting men & women might pump up his numbers?

Posted by: CoolCzech at December 03, 2010 09:12 AM (tJjm/)

20 Here's our plan to reduce the deficit -

B.O.N.E.D - Buy Out Next European Default

Posted by: The Federal Reserve at December 03, 2010 09:14 AM (b75eT)

21 I've said it before, and I'll say it again:

Balanced Budget.
Set "Projected Revenue" (By Constitutional Amendment, if I had my way) = ((GDP * .95) * .19).

Once receipts are in, any additional dollars go directly to retiring the debt.  If the debt ever gets retired, additional dollars are returned to the states- proportioned by a States % of the GDP.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 03, 2010 09:14 AM (8y9MW)

22 Here's my formula.

Surplus Budget.
Set total spending (By Constitutional Amendment, if I had my way) = ((actual revenue previous year * .90)  10% goes to debt until paid off.

Balanced budgets will not pay off debt.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at December 03, 2010 09:18 AM (b75eT)

23 Posted by: Guy Fawkes at December 03, 2010 01:18 PM (b75eT)

Mine does much the same thing, when you look at it.  I should have said "Previous Year's GDP" in my formula.  That presumes a 5% drop in GDP (when we'll likely actually have gains) and then only grants 19% (what actual revenue would be if we had such a drop) for budgeting.  I'm willing to bet the numbers come out pretty close.  Especially once its realized what sane spending policies will do to our GDP.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 03, 2010 09:21 AM (8y9MW)

24 Obama, GOP in quiet talks to extend tax cuts

Washington Post
Friday, December 3, 2010

The White House and congressional Republicans have begun working behind the scenes toward a broad deal that would prevent taxes from going up for virtually every U.S. family and authorize billions of dollars in fresh spending to bolster the economy.

Republicans are demanding that Democrats extend Bush-era tax cuts at all income levels at least temporarily, not just those that primarily benefit the middle class. They are also pressing Democrats to approve a measure to keep the government funded through September, a move aimed at avoiding a fight with the White House over spending that could provoke a government shutdown.

In return, Obama is seeking Republican support for as much as $150 billion in new spending on the economy, including an additional 13 months of emergency jobless benefits and another year of his signature "Making Work Pay" tax cut for working families.

If successful, the back-channel negotiations would add hundreds of billions of dollars to future deficits, even as a bipartisan commission appointed by Obama is trying to build support for a plan to balance the budget. In a briefing for reporters, a senior administration official noted the contradiction but said the provisions being considered would "enhance growth" at a critical moment.

Also on the table: an immediate vote to raise the legal limit on government borrowing - months before an increase is needed. The move would defuse a potentially explosive debate in the spring, when a new tide of conservative lawmakers is threatening to block an increase in the debt limit, risking a government default.

The negotiations, which were conducted primarily with the office of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)




That's our Mitch walking across the aisle, that is....


Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at December 03, 2010 10:30 AM (yea0z)

25 That's our Mitch walking across the aisle, that is....

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at December 03, 2010 02:30 PM (yea0z)

I heard that deal is dead.

Posted by: Vic at December 03, 2010 10:45 AM (e4sSD)

26 Democrats (and yes Republicans) have run up astronomical spending numbers, they aren't about to let a handful of 'commissioners' undo it all with one vote.

I think the American people had a little something to do with it too.

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