July 07, 2010
— Ace In a good column about the economy, he expresses an interesting political take:
The increasing consensus that we are entering a "double dip" recession is seeping into the conventional wisdom, posing a further obstacle to Obama's attempts to keep control of Congress. Even when the conventional wisdom was that the economy was slowly emerging from recession, the president was having his problems keeping Congress. But now that all indicators - from employment to housing to consumer confidence to the Dow - are trending downward, the task is likely to become even harder.
The days are fading when Bush could be blamed for the economic problems we are facing as a nation. The passage of time and, interestingly, the very perception that things had been getting better earlier in the year both make this second dip the Obama dip rather than just a continuation of the "Bush recession."The facts are that we have likely never emerged from the recession at all. The Economic Conference Board has never declared the recession over since so much (or even all) of the anemic but still somewhat positive growth recorded in the past three quarters stems directly from public sector cash transfer payments. These transfusions may mask the symptoms of recession, but they are no indication of emerging prosperity.
As we predicted in Catastrophe and in our latest book: 2010: Take Back America - A Battle Plan, we are now coping with the damage, not of the original recession that started in 2007, but with the cures administered by Obama when he took office in 2009. It is his big spending, big borrowing, and his looming tax increases in 2011 are driving the economy down.
History will probably record the Obama Administration of 2009-2013 (hopefully his only time in office) as one long recession/depression just as we see the Hoover Administration of 1929-1933. We make no allowances for the "false dawn" of rising markets which engendered a great deal of hope in 1930-1931 before these expectations were crushed by the Hoover tax increases of late 1931 and the Federal Reserve Board's increase of interest rates that same year. In retrospect, we will see the slight uptick of the early months of 2010 as our own "false dawn" interrupting but not punctuating our four year recession.
He's right about history not making any distinction between the recessions, but he's also right about the usefulness of pinning the likely-coming second dip on Obama himself.
After all, it was he who allowed Nancy Pelosi to do his job and craft the stimulus package. And only $600 billion of that trillion was actual stimulus; the rest was pork and payoffs to Democrats that did nothing to help the economy.
Says me? No, says liberal Democrat economist Brad DeLong:
The good news is we have avoided another Great Depression. But it seems ill-advised for Barack Obama to stand up on a Friday morning in early July and say that the economy is "headed in the right direction" (even if, as he said, "we are not headed there fast enough") and to highlight "the sixth straight month of job growth in the private sector." The employment-to-population ratio has been flat since November. Over the past six months--since the downturn ended--the U.S. economy has not been recovering from its near-depression, and not been putting a greater and greater portion of its potential labor force to work. Rather, it has been bumping along the bottom. There is a big difference between the economy getting "better" and the economy "no longer getting worse rapidly."...
Go back to December 16, 2008, when Ryan Lizza reported in The New Yorker on the Obama AdministrationÂ’s thinking. Council of Economic Advisors Chair-Designate Christina Romer believed the following: that the appropriate total value for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act fiscal stimulus was something more than $1.2 trillion, but that to ask for a stimulus that large would risk gridlock in the Senate. (The result was an ARRA of about $600 billion of real stimulus tax cuts and spending increases alongside ineffective ornaments dear to the hearts of legislators.)
And getting that $1.2 trillion would have been easy, by the way. DeLong himself is pushing for more stimulus, and he is quite catholic in his tastes in stimulus -- he urges either greater spending or tax cuts or both.
Tax cuts are Keynesian tools, too, of course.
So how could Obama have gotten the $1.2 trillion in stimulus he thought he needed?
Easy. Give the Democrats the $600 billion in stimulative spending, skip the "ornamental" pork, and give Republicans $600 billion in tax cuts. (My preference: A holiday in the payroll taxes for businesses to encourage hiring and employee retention.)
Not only would he have had his Shock and Awe stimulus, he would have gotten it with more than half of the GOP caucus voting for it, and thus would now have the useful political cover of bipartisan action (not the mention the unifying aspect of same -- if you coopt your opponents into joining you, they have skin in the game as far as scoring a victory, too.)
But he didn't. Because he decided he didn't need Republican votes, and would rather have a delectable partisan victory.
And so we spent a huge amount -- $1 trillion plus with interest -- to no discernible effect and in fact really can't shoot another stimulus bullet, even if our lives depended on it. (And, you know, they might.)
And this Bush's fault?
No, this is the Miserable Failure's fault.
Posted by: Ace at
12:07 PM
| Comments (112)
Post contains 935 words, total size 6 kb.
Posted by: Obama's Advocate at July 07, 2010 12:12 PM (VmtE9)
It's already Day 534 in the Era of Barry, and the 1281st day since the Democrats took over both houses of Congress.
Most people should have realized that Dubya isn't causing this.
Posted by: toby928 at July 07, 2010 12:13 PM (4WbTI)
There are only a few people who can induce nausea here when their ugly mugs hit the small screen -- think Osama Obama, all Democrat "leaders," Hannity and Gerry Rivers -- and Morris is one of them.
Posted by: MrScribbler at July 07, 2010 12:13 PM (Ulu3i)
Posted by: curious at July 07, 2010 12:15 PM (p302b)
Posted by: The MFM at July 07, 2010 12:15 PM (n1s3S)
Most people think the Republicans have controlled Congress since 1994.
Posted by: HeatherRadish at July 07, 2010 12:16 PM (M9BNu)
Posted by: Tami at July 07, 2010 12:17 PM (VuLos)
This asshole Biden can say anything and get away with it.
From April 23, 2010...
Vice President Biden predicted today that the economy will add between 100,000-200,000 jobs next month, and between 250,000-500,000 jobs per month in time thereafter.
Biden made his comments while campaigning for Mark Critz, the Democratic nominee in the May 18 special election for the House seat in Pennsylvania formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha. "All in all we're going to be creating somewhere between 100 and 200,000 jobs next month, I predict," Biden said, according to the pool report from the Pittsburg Tribune-Review.
Biden added that he's "got in trouble" for a previous job growth prediction in March.
"Even some in the White House said, 'hey, don't get ahead of yourself,'" said Biden. "Well I'm here to tell you some time in the next couple of months we're going to be creating between 250,000 jobs a month and 500,000 jobs a month. Because I'm telling you something, folks. We caught a lot of bad breaks on the way down. We're going to catch a few good breaks because of good planning on the way up."
Posted by: semaphore, muthafucka, do you speak it? at July 07, 2010 12:18 PM (uFokq)
Jessss! Roll the Meme. Although I prefer a stuttering clusterfuck of a miserable failure myself.
Posted by: toby928 at July 07, 2010 12:19 PM (4WbTI)
hear that, folks?
"We're going to catch a few good breaks because of good planning on the way up."
okay, folks? Because Joe Biden, an asshole who never had a real job, is knows how to fix the economy.
Posted by: semaphore, muthafucka, do you speak it? at July 07, 2010 12:20 PM (uFokq)
Posted by: NJConservative at July 07, 2010 12:20 PM (LH6ir)
Posted by: The MFM at July 07, 2010 12:20 PM (n1s3S)
the first thing ol' Joe is gonna do?
Tell small-business owners to shut the fuck up, that's what.
Posted by: semaphore, muthafucka, do you speak it? at July 07, 2010 12:21 PM (uFokq)
Posted by: motionview at July 07, 2010 12:21 PM (lKDF0)
Posted by: double rainbow stoner at July 07, 2010 12:21 PM (4Kl5M)
Everything is gonna be fine...tomorrow. Don't worry about it.
Don't stop thinking about tomorrow. We have a plan.
Stick with us. We're gonna make everything great. Don't stop thinking about tomorrow.
Posted by: semaphore, muthafucka, do you speak it? at July 07, 2010 12:23 PM (uFokq)
anyhow, yes the recession pinning is very important, once the economy is blamed on you, Jesus Christ himself can't help you (example: Hoover, Carter, HW Bush, Van Buren, etc.) and yes people have been re-elected in bad economies by making it look like someone's else's fault (FDR, Monroe, Grant, etc.)
Posted by: YRM (The Youngest Ace Reader) at July 07, 2010 12:24 PM (38UQ3)
Posted by: The MFM at July 07, 2010 12:26 PM (n1s3S)
Posted by: Jean at July 07, 2010 12:27 PM (yGYDb)
If that dunce Michael Steele said tomorrow that Obama's policies were ruining the economy, Lindsey Graham would release a statement five minutes later condemning Steele.
Posted by: semaphore, muthafucka, do you speak it? at July 07, 2010 12:27 PM (uFokq)
I have been saying consistently every morning on the Gloom and Doom thread from Monty that we have never exited the recession. Not because I do like the lying Dems and redefine what a recession is, but because I don't think we have had two QTRs of positive growth. I simply do not believe a single number issued by this sack of lying shit administration.
Yes, we will be in this recession until the Dems are out of power in both congress and the WH. That is the way it always works except once when JFK was President.
This recession started with the Dems controlling both houses of congress and the great housing and bank collapse occurred strictly due to Democrat meddling in the housing and mortgage market. That is a fact no matter what any of the other eeyore assholes who like to spout the "all have some of the blame" shit.
But what really pisses me off is the balless idiots in the Republican Party who continue to allow the lying Dems to get away with this crap because they will not fight. The meme has become "this is not our hill to die on". The problem with that meme is that it has been going for so long half the Republican Party has died and rotted in the swamps because they refuse to climb any hill.
Posted by: Vic at July 07, 2010 12:27 PM (/jbAw)
Posted by: Vince at July 07, 2010 12:27 PM (GpQZ/)
Posted by: Jay in Ames at July 07, 2010 12:28 PM (UEEex)
Posted by: Bertha Lewis at July 07, 2010 12:28 PM (kZVsz)
Posted by: Rodney at July 07, 2010 12:29 PM (XRIh6)
Is someone about to start hiring?
Posted by: toby928 at July 07, 2010 12:29 PM (4WbTI)
Posted by: Panther at July 07, 2010 12:31 PM (+sBB4)
We went through a bit of a double-dip recession of our own, back in that bathroom stall in MA.
That was some cold butterscotch.
Posted by: ace's pudding-coated nards at July 07, 2010 12:31 PM (kZVsz)
Owns the second half of the bailout, from the Bush days, too (350 billion, isn't it?). That was passed after Bush left, wasn't it?
Posted by: Jay in Ames at July 07, 2010 12:31 PM (UEEex)
The Dry ships index wasn't so good though...
Guess everyone doesn't know what to do.
Posted by: curious at July 07, 2010 12:32 PM (p302b)
From April 23, 2010...
Vice President Biden predicted today that the economy will add between 100,000-200,000 jobs next month, and between 250,000-500,000 jobs per month in time thereafter.
Biden made his comments while campaigning for Mark Critz, the Democratic nominee in the May 18 special election for the House seat in Pennsylvania formerly held by the late Democratic Rep. John Murtha. "All in all we're going to be creating somewhere between 100 and 200,000 jobs next month, I predict," Biden said, according to the pool report from the Pittsburg Tribune-Review.
_______________________
The problem here isn't what Biden said, it's that the reporter thought "between 100 and 200,000" meant "between 100,000 and 200,000". It didn't. It meant at least 100 jobs, but no more than 200,000.
Posted by: Biden Numerologist at July 07, 2010 12:32 PM (3K4hn)
Posted by: I am Obama's Brain at July 07, 2010 12:33 PM (/H8uK)
followed by more spending and poorer management, why doesn;t anyone point this out enough? it's like arguing yes I killed that guy after torturing him for hours but hey the guy before me shot a guy point blank and it's all his fault
Posted by: YRM (The Youngest Ace Reader) at July 07, 2010 12:33 PM (38UQ3)
I and Mr. Laffer would disagree, tax cuts only act as a stimulus if people believe that they are permanent, and that temporary $12 a week is not going to do it. Which brings me to another pet peeve of mine, it drives me crazy when people call tax cuts spending. The MFM does this all the time.
On a totally different note, Dan Riehl has news of andi sullivan's latest expedition into the world of crazy.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at July 07, 2010 12:34 PM (OMRnD)
Posted by: curious at July 07, 2010 12:34 PM (p302b)
Posted by: sixpckr at July 07, 2010 12:34 PM (Aw7Iv)
He would have gotten that for the bill as passed if enough Democrats had voted "no" to make GOP votes decisive. It was a pseudo-partisan vote.
But the Democrats knew they didn't have to play it that way. The "GOP obstruction causes economic collapse" story is better, because voters are retarded (clinically).
Ask the subset of your friends and family who consider themselves "well-informed" who's politically responsible for the current stagnation. It's not Pelosi.
Posted by: oblig. at July 07, 2010 12:34 PM (x7Ao8)
The KO is required to have any chance of salvaging the country, that's why.
Posted by: Methos at July 07, 2010 12:35 PM (Xsi7M)
Heh. You beat me to it.
The likely course will be cash rich companies buying out failing competitors next year. The losses will help with their tax exposure.
This means more layoffs thanks to consolidation.
Posted by: MikeO at July 07, 2010 12:35 PM (lBmZl)
Posted by: President Transparency at July 07, 2010 12:37 PM (SbVxv)
Posted by: Jay in Ames at July 07, 2010 04:28 PM (UEEex)
Truman wasn't responsible for that but he didn't try to veto it like FDR you can thank the Rep congress of 46-48 for that and moderate Dems who were sick and tired of the spending and saw a chance to stop it w/ FDR now dead
Posted by: YRM (The Youngest Ace Reader) at July 07, 2010 12:39 PM (38UQ3)
Posted by: Jay in Ames at July 07, 2010 04:28 PM (UEEex)
Two reasons. 1. You have to cut taxes before you see raised revenues. It's an 100% certainity but since they have already spent the tax revenue money if they don't receive it in estimated taxes throughout the year, it is a momentary loss. It's like giving up part of your salary even if it is matched one year later and then you get back twice as much.
2. It is antethetical to their philosophy. If you cut the taxes of people who PAY taxes then they retain their wealth in some way. This stops the redistribution machine. They think it is a pie. If you have more then someone else has less. It's not a pie. If you have more and you grow the economy by creating jobs, businesses, new hires, increasing business then the whole economy grows. We have grown ourselves out of debt before. They absolutely refuse to believe this. It has more to do with LEVELING society and less to do with the entire economy. Ideologues don't care about the small people, they care about punishing or destroying the rich. They think they are conquering the castle.
I have no idea why underline is on and can't be turned off.
Posted by: dagny at July 07, 2010 12:40 PM (Jsvws)
Posted by: double rainbow stoner at July 07, 2010 12:40 PM (4Kl5M)
Posted by: non sequitur guy at July 07, 2010 04:39 PM (m2CN7)
that's another thing that gets to me about the Bush bashing, there's so much to criticize him for but they focus on him as if he was a horendous economic prez when we had full employment under him just years after the 2000 recession and 9/11 stock market hit
Posted by: YRM (The Youngest Ace Reader) at July 07, 2010 12:41 PM (38UQ3)
Someone should ask him if he is working on another book
Posted by: Just Askin at July 07, 2010 12:41 PM (+sBB4)
I saw this over the weekend on either Market Ticker or Zerohedge. Companies having lots of cash on hand is a bad sign in that they aren't spending it to expand (and increase their rate of profits) or lowering current debt, they're massing funds to survive the downturn they expect in the coming months.
Posted by: Methos at July 07, 2010 12:41 PM (Xsi7M)
Posted by: some outdoorsy stoner at July 07, 2010 12:41 PM (SbVxv)
Regardless, yet another case of runaway tax receipts when taxes are cut. Imagine that, let people keep their money, and they spend it. You make a little bit off of a whole lot more spending, and capital investment (the really important part of it).
Posted by: Jay in Ames at July 07, 2010 12:42 PM (UEEex)
Everyone should also recall that Obama signed the 2009 budget, not Bush. The Democrats in Congress went the continuing resolution route from Oct 2008 to Obama's inaugural. So the only real thing "Bush" about 2009 was TARP which Obama voted for and then took control of when he became President. In my estimation Obama is responsible for the economy from January 2009 to the present, none of this "Bush's fault" crap.
It shouldn't take a political genius to run ads in all truthfulness stating that 8 million Americans lost their jobs, the economy contracted 5% and goverment spending exploded 33% since Obama took office and that the only way to prevent him from doing more damage is to give control of Congress to the Republicans.
Posted by: Prof. Venkman at July 07, 2010 12:44 PM (//Bcg)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at July 07, 2010 12:45 PM (OMRnD)
Posted by: dagny at July 07, 2010 12:46 PM (Jsvws)
receive it in estimated taxes throughout the year
But it's an estimate, and the estimate is always undersold. The end result is always additional revenue. Bush spent like a democrat, but he STILL almost had a balanced budget by 2006, even while fighting 2 wars! Imagine what could have happened if he actually had cut spending!
I understand your point, but isn't the answer reframing the context of the action, in regards to what actually happens? Everyone I've ever tried this argument on buys into it. They then moves on to another line of attack to republican ideas, like racism and stuff. But I own them in the financial area.
Posted by: Jay in Ames at July 07, 2010 12:47 PM (UEEex)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at July 07, 2010 04:45 PM (OMRnD)
Sometimes fixing the HTML directly is simple. It should be for underlining, which is a tag of its own. Sometimes, though, it isn't (certainly for those who don't actually know HTML). This text entry system is one of the worst I have ever seen - and even if you code the HTML directly, yourself, this system screws with it and changes things.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at July 07, 2010 12:49 PM (Qp4DT)
Posted by: Jean at July 07, 2010 12:58 PM (PBsU2)
Also $200 billion of that $600 billion was aid to states and I think another $200 billion or so went to aid to seniors and such. If you subtract the transfer payment portion of the stimulus I'd bet less than $200 billion went to actual productive work.
In a sane world an actual stimulus would have been to replace every single deficient bridge in the country with extra lanes to increase thru flow capacity
Posted by: Prof. Venkman at July 07, 2010 01:00 PM (Bs34i)
In a sane world, "President Obama" would be the punchline to a sick fucking joke.
Posted by: MikeO at July 07, 2010 01:02 PM (lBmZl)
Posted by: pity t. fool at July 07, 2010 01:04 PM (Sg8sX)
Hoover also went economically libtard as a response to the crash, so he does share some blame even though it was FDR that went full libtard.
Posted by: Ian S. at July 07, 2010 01:04 PM (p05LM)
As a small business owner, you what I would do with a payroll tax holiday? I would bank that money, pay down business debt and hunker down and not take any risks until I knew what the hell the government was planning.
All the tax cuts and incentives do not mean jack if entrepreneurs have no reasonable expectation of what the playing field looks like. As it is, I am banking money, paying down business debt and hunkering down. The only difference is that I have no "stimulative" tax cuts by which to do these things.
In order to remain in business, I have cut back on my lifestyle; I am not filling positions opened through attrition and I have not given raises in two years. I recognize that Obama sees me as an evil fat cat but what he doesn't understand is that before I stopped giving raises and before I stopped hiring, I reduced my salary, ceased expansion and reduced other capital outlays. As soon as things are better, you better believe our employees are getting raises; then new equipment and then I'll pay myself last. Because, I am an evil fat cat.
From this fat cat's perspective, things won't get better until the government injected uncertainty has been removed from the market place in all its forms.
Posted by: BigDaddy1964 at July 07, 2010 01:05 PM (pOcKt)
O/T, but it's only right that we give President Obama due credit.
After the Deepwater Horizon blew up, oil washed up on the shores of one Gulf state. Then it was two. Then three, which became four. As of a couple days ago, it's five.
That number is holding at five. In terms of the number of states affected, the problem has stabilized. Though things aren't actually better, they're trending toward the better.
Posted by: FireHorse at July 07, 2010 01:11 PM (cQyWA)
A conservative blogger acknowledging that tax cuts are part of Keynesian theory (bad, old, liberal, outdated economic theory) are a sure sign that the Mayans were right and it's all gonna be over in 2012.
Every time I mention that tax cuts are treated almost identically in Keynesian models to conservatives, you'd think I'd pissed on their Qu'ran, or something.
Posted by: GulfCoastTider at July 07, 2010 01:12 PM (g23BR)
Posted by: BigDaddy1964 at July 07, 2010 05:05 PM (pOcKt)
Unfortunately, that is an impossible task, now. The insane and radical uncertainty that has been pushed in everyone's face since the Indonesian Imbecile took office and started tearing our nation to shreds is never going to go away. America has established that, given a temporary mass hysteria as was brought on by the credit crisis, this nation can declare national suicide very easily and trash every law, tradition, and institution we have. There will never be a time, again, that America can be trusted. America's allies understand, quite well, that America can turn on a dime and put an inept, racist, retarded third worlder in office at any moment, and then look the other way as he breaks every law and tradition (starting with his initial, obvious, Constitutional ineligibility that people chose to ignore as they were scared of blacks rioting - ochlocracy ... great) and turns American policy into a replay of the USSR and other retarded nations of the past.
The damage that America invited in, and that has been pushed to the edge of the envelope by the America-hating Indonesian, and that has been met with almost no challenges (considering that tens of impeachable offenses have been perpetrated, already, by this junta) is IRREPARABLE DAMAGE that cannot be fixed by any constitution of Congress, the Executive, or law. This nation has left the rule of law, shouting to the rafters how law is so overrated (empathy is now considered a reasonable primary trait for a SCOTUS justice!), and that cannot be forgotten by anyone with a brain.
The US has proven itself a totally untrustworthy nation by having chosen national suicide by Indonesian. That cannot be undone. Once someone tries to commit suicide, one knows that there is something deathly wrong in their thinking and no amount of time, or actions to the opposite, will change that. The US signed its fate on Nov 4th, 2008 and this game is going to have to be played all the way out. There is no returning to the America that was. The American creed must find its patron elsewhere.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at July 07, 2010 01:17 PM (Qp4DT)
Posted by: JackStraw at July 07, 2010 01:21 PM (VW9/y)
Tax cuts don't work in my opinion and experience, tax credits do. If you give someone a tax cut you are relying on them to spend the money somehow to expand the economy. While that will eventually happen in the long run in the short run to turn around a recession there is no guarantee.
Reagan in either 82 or 83 initiated a 10% investment tax credit, for every dollar a business spent on business related items they got a dime credit on their income tax bill. I owned a small business during this time and took advantage of it and spent %500,000 on new equipment, I also had to hire 6 people to operated the equipment. I got a $50,000 tax credit.
The government got me to spend $500,000 for just a $50,000 credit and hire 6 employees. You can't get near that type of return if you give someone a tax cut.
Posted by: robtr at July 07, 2010 01:25 PM (fwSHf)
Obama said the exact same thing a year ago, and since then things have gotten worse.
In July 2009, Obama said he sees "light at the end of the tunnel."
Posted by: semaphore, muthafucka, do you speak it? at July 07, 2010 01:27 PM (uFokq)
In July 2009, Obama said he sees "light at the end of the tunnel."
Posted by: semaphore, muthafucka, do you speak it? at July 07, 2010
05:27 PM (uFokq)
Don't forget the "green shoots". We haven't heard that term in quite a while, though it used to come out of the White House and MFM like it was the only English phrase they knew.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at July 07, 2010 01:29 PM (Qp4DT)
MFM idiot: The economy is headed for a double dip recession. Some evil racists are saying this is President Wonderful's fault. Are they right?
MFM "expert": Of course not. President Wonderful is doing the best he can with the terrible economy he inherited by EVIL Bush/Cheney. No economic problems are the fault of President Wonderful or his magnificent policies. And anyone who says it is are just racists.
Posted by: TheQuietMan at July 07, 2010 01:32 PM (1Jaio)
Are you sure?
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at July 07, 2010 01:32 PM (PQY7w)
These assholes have a lot in common with the barbarian hoardes or the arabian invaders. They destroy civilization for the purpose of plunder. Instead of protection, markets, higher standards of living they want oppression and everyone with a little pot of gold or a big screen tv.
No, they destroy civilization for the purpose of destroying civilization.
These folks are nihilists - they won't sleep well at night until the USA ceases to exist.
In a sane world an actual stimulus would have been to replace every single deficient bridge in the country with extra lanes to increase thru flow capacity
But this isn't a "sane" world - at least not from our point of view.
On the other hand, from the point of view of the nihilist, attempting to do anything productive or useful or helpful [such as what you're proposing] would be the height of insanity.
Posted by: Lindsey Grahamnesty licking Rahm Emanuel's salty, shaven balls at July 07, 2010 01:34 PM (FLaAS)
No, this is the Miserable Failure's fault.
Are you saying...stay with me here, that Barak Obama, The Won, the Present of the United States is a Miserable Failure?
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at July 07, 2010 01:34 PM (1hM1d)
Young Americans Learn That Trying To Find Work Is Pointless
For that graph to be meaningful, it needs to be adjusted for race.
Almost half of all young people in the USA today belong to races whose average IQs are no higher than 80 [and might be in the mid- to high-70s], which means that the overwhelming majority of them are simply unemployable [in anything other than a subsistence-level/hunter-gatherer sort of an economy].
Posted by: Lindsey Grahamnesty licking Rahm Emanuel's salty, shaven balls at July 07, 2010 01:40 PM (FLaAS)
Hoover recalls, and Milt Friedman argeed, the Hoover's
decision to let the banks fail was the catalyst that caused the
depression.
Posted by: polynikes at July 07, 2010 05:41 PM (m2CN7)
TARP didn't save the banks. Two trillion in functionally printed money (those laughable swaps for MBSs that were close to worthless by the Fed - though we really don't know how truly awful that accounting was) did the bulk of the work ... along with over a trillion in actual printed money that was pushed into the system not long after the Indonesian Imbecile took office.
TARP, as we all know, was supposed to be used to purchase crappy MBSs ... but not one cent of TARP ever went to do that. Instead, we got great deals on bank stock (orders of magnitude above fair value), a couple of car companies, AIG, and a bunch of other wastes.
The US would have been in much, much better shape to have let the failing banks go, let the counter-parties deal with the risks they took, and have Congress only do the minimum necessary to preserve the skeleton of the financial system (as Congress is actually charged with protecting the dollar from collapse - though Congress has been working to cause the dollar's collapse). This nation would have emerged and been building back strong long before now.
On top of all this, we had the idiots in Washington deciding that the best way to combat private risks and private losses was to have the public sector assume all the continuing risks and losses and ensure that we were staring a total collapse of the US instead of just a collapse of many private companies - which should have collapsed.
But, we're only in the eye of this storm, and when we get hit by the eye-wall, people are going to see what real shit is.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at July 07, 2010 01:51 PM (Qp4DT)
Posted by: Sort-of-Mad Max at July 07, 2010 02:31 PM (2PTT7)
Brilliant post, The President doesn't get to spend a triollion bucks locking out the GOP from the stimulus and then try to give us the car keys after he wrecked the car.
He and the MSM will try that but we don't have to allow it.
Posted by: sven10077 at July 07, 2010 02:55 PM (kq1lG)
81 GCT,
the issue is not with Keynes who was inarguably a genius the issue is with the bastardization of Keynes and the fantasy that they can spend as much as thry want without consequence.
Posted by: sven10077 at July 07, 2010 02:57 PM (kq1lG)
Posted by: sven10077 at July 07, 2010 02:57 PM (kq1lG)
Posted by: GulfCoastTider
at July 07, 2010 05:12 PM (g23BR)
If you mean 'identically to government spending of the same amount' then that would have to be one of the most idiotic contentions in economics (which is saying something). Of course, Keynes was the sort of idiot who thought that burying cash in jars to have people dig them up and spend them was just as good "stimulus" as anything else.
While Keynes might have considered tax cuts as just another way of getting money into the economy (though, this is just money that the government is stopped from taking out of the economy and running through the wasteful government machine, to be spent on useless projects) this is an idiotic assertion. The idea that money moving depends on nothing other than its being in motion (basic Keynesian simple-mindedness) is farcical on its face. There are QUITE OBVIOUSLY expenditures in different areas that have different effects on the overall economy. There are QUITE OBVIOUSLY expenditures by different people that have different effects on the economy. It is QUITE OBVIOUS that the person or organization deciding what to spend the money on is of utmost importance. But ... to Keynes, these were all details to be ignored.
The idea that social spending (on welfare, say) is of the same quality to the economy as defense spending is laughable. The idea that public spending is of the same quality to the economy as private spending is beyond ludicrous.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at July 07, 2010 03:10 PM (Qp4DT)
Posted by: Masturbatin' Pete at July 07, 2010 03:33 PM (SO6yP)
I read DeLong's article and noticed that he took time to bash the Republicans by saying that they put party first rather than the country's well-being since they won't go along with any new "Porkulus" spending. He just saying we didn't spend big enough in the first place!
The nice thing is that DeLong is starting to realize that the Teh Won has probably (hopefully!!) set back the progressive agenda all by himself by push too hard and too fast after bull-sh!tting everyone about what a centrist he was.
Posted by: Retired Buckey Cop at July 07, 2010 03:34 PM (bCQG3)
@53: "Twenty five straight quarters of positive growth in spite of 9/11 and Katrina and the constant doomsayers of the MFM"
Except the problem is that it wasn't actual growth - it was just pulled-forward demand. It gave the appearance of growth, but the economy wasn't actually growing - it was just a credit binge.
Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at July 07, 2010 03:43 PM (ySNz/)
@ 81
Keynes also sent Fredrich Hyak at letter in which he (Keynes) wrote that he thought The Road to Serfdom was a great book and he agreed with virtually everything in it.
Posted by: Retired Buckey Cop at July 07, 2010 03:50 PM (bCQG3)
Obama is only less than halfway through his first term. Of course he's still dealing with the problems George Bush left him.
Just wait until Barack can get to work fixing the economy without all those Bush-legacy problems hampering him. That should be around the second year of his third term.
Posted by: stuiec at July 07, 2010 04:08 PM (7AOgy)
And within that time the jugeared economic illiterate has been able to quadruple the deficit. Listen stupid, you have no idea what you're talking about. The democrat clowns have had control of the house, the senate and the presidency and they did the only thing they know: implement failed democrat policies, the same policies that financially destroyed democrat run states and cities.
Stick to what you leftwing freaks know: drugs and sniffing your partners assholes.
Posted by: The Great Satan™ at July 07, 2010 04:20 PM (BedzM)
Apologies for my first response, didn't catch the sarcasm.
Posted by: The Great Satan™ at July 07, 2010 04:21 PM (BedzM)
I did not come to praise Keynes, but to bury him.
I'm a monetarist, not a Keynesian. But the truth is, his model did treat tax cuts and government spending the same way, and Arthur Laffer's famous napkin was based on the Keynesian model. I frankly don't care if you agree with the Keynesian theory or not. That's not the point of my comment. I was just trying to point out that, if you're a bad old liberal Keynesian, then you think tax cuts are just as good as a massive $860 porkulus of spending.
Why not take that $860 billion in lost government revenue and just put it in the pockets of American capitalists? Is that a bad thing, or a good thing?
"I have more money in my account," says evil American capitalist. "Whatever shall I do?!?"
Posted by: GulfCoastTider at July 07, 2010 04:30 PM (nfYH9)
111 GCT,
well Keynes was a lot more honest a socialist and a lot better judge of human character than the B+ team
Posted by: sven10077 at July 07, 2010 04:37 PM (kq1lG)
This is the rebuttal to Chris Matthews ridiculous predictions from this video.
What is MSNBCÂ’s Chris Matthews Thinking?
Once you watch this video, youÂ’ll be wondering the same thing. ItÂ’s baffling.
Posted by: Dan at July 07, 2010 04:56 PM (9L1z6)
If Milton Friedman's work was bastardized by someone like say, Paul Krugman, would Friedman be the asshole, or Krugman?
Posted by: GulfCoastTider at July 07, 2010 05:40 PM (nfYH9)
Before you take that seriously at all, remember that this is the same crowd that predicted, with stimulus, our unemployment would never get higher than 8%.
Posted by: AmishDude at July 07, 2010 05:42 PM (T0NGe)
114 GCT,
Keynes was a socialist enabler or rather a Liberal party guy.....
his party became the LDP which is not socialist only in and of that Labour is a bit further to the left.
Posted by: sven10077 at July 07, 2010 06:01 PM (kq1lG)
Posted by: The Chap in the Deerstalker Cap at July 07, 2010 06:02 PM (I+cd5)
Posted by: GulfCoastTider
at July 07, 2010 09:40 PM (nfYH9)
Keynes was not a socialist, but he was an asshole.
Just not nearly as much of an asshole as Dillard.
His math was sound, his judgement wasn't. Let's just say he didn't really take "the long view" and eve non-Keynesian economists have been infected with that myopia.
It wasn't unique to him, but he was very influential in that regard, arguably more so than in his math (partly because, again, of Dillard and others).
Posted by: Merovign, Strong On His Mountain at July 07, 2010 06:04 PM (bxiXv)
Posted by: D1Stewart at July 07, 2010 07:18 PM (JyPNg)
Posted by: curious at July 07, 2010 09:37 PM (p302b)
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Posted by: The inevitable "Dick Morris is always wrong" post at July 07, 2010 12:09 PM (FkKjr)