October 18, 2010

Dick Morris: Rumors of the Democratic Comeback Are Greatly Overstated
— Ace

Democrats were in big trouble over policy and results. So they blitzed their opponents with negative ads -- but way too early. Desperate to get a toe-hold, they threw the sink at Republicans, gaining 5 or so points in the polls.

But too early.

[I]n most districts, the negatives assumed a more personal and harsher character. Watching them, one felt not only that the Republican should not be elected, but that he should be imprisoned. The vitriolic negatives played fast and loose with the facts.

...

The attacks sent Republicans reeling. Democrats did not pace themselves and opened up with all they had, usually throwing the harshest negatives first. Throughout the country, Republicans slipped back and Democrats managed to reestablish leads. In the Senate races, Angle fell behind in Nevada, Rossi dropped in Washington, O'Donnell lost points in Delaware. And in dozens of House races, the Republicans fell back.

In the past two weeks, these races have stabilized and the Republican has come back. The negatives have worn off. Republicans have answered the charges and shown how ridiculous they are. And voters have reminded themselves that on the key issues of the day -- stimulus, Obamacare, cap-and-trade, and TARP -- they agree with the Republicans and not with the Democrats. These underlying Republican advantages have become more manifest.

As Mark Twain said, "A lie can make it half way around the world before the truth has time to put its boots on." It took all of two or three weeks for the Republicans to put on their boots to pursue the Democratic negatives. But, by late September, they were fully shod and were overcoming the negative attacks.

Now Republicans are opening up good-sized leads again, particularly in House races, and the Democratic attacks are being seen as shrill, inaccurate, and ineffective."

At Hot Air, it's noted that the Democrats claim they actually took it easy in September with television ads and now intend to blitz the Republicans. But the Democrats can't run on their record, and their negative attacks have largely been digested by the public and found to be not all that persuasive.

So what's this money going to be used for?

Well, for GOTV, I guess. So be the wave.

But this strategy seems to have backfired anyway-- because while Democrats were saving up for their October blitz, Republicans were... spending money in September, but also outraising them in September, so that they're ready to play in October too:

A long roster of House Democratic incumbents found themselves outraised by GOP challengers during the third quarter — the latest sign that cash is following Republican momentum just weeks from the midterms.

At least 40 Democrats took in less cash than their opponents — a list that ranges from vulnerable freshmen like Alabama’s Bobby Bright, Mississippi’s Travis Childers, and Nevada’s Dina Titus to more senior members like Nick Rahall of West Virginia and Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania.

House Speaker Nancy PelosiÂ’s Republican challenger outraised her by more than 3-to-1, taking in more than $1.1 million over the past three months. John Dennis, the Ron Paul-backed GOP nominee running against Pelosi in her liberal San Francisco-based district, raised roughly five times as much as he collected in the previous quarter, tapping into resentment against the leader of the Democratic majority in the House.

The development comes at a time when GOP outside groups are already far outspending Democratic-aligned organizations. This week, the Karl Rove-linked American Crossroads and a collection of affiliated Republican-friendly organizations announced they would spend more than $50 million on TV ads slamming House Democrats. The National Republican Congressional Committee, meanwhile, has announced that it plans to expand its TV ad campaign to $50 million as it attempts to expand the number of Democratic targets.

Rasmussen expanded its prediction to 55 seats; ABCNews notes that 63 Democrats are in "serious danger."

I don't think anyone believes these predictions, least of all the people making them. I think they're being cautious because to say what you really think would make you sound crazy.

I'm sticking with 72/11. And I don't believe that prediction at all.

Posted by: Ace at 10:43 AM | Comments (80)
Post contains 706 words, total size 5 kb.

1 R +104

Posted by: El Guapo 2010 Campaign Manager at October 18, 2010 10:46 AM (rkCMG)

2 Yes, I like the +104 number.  But I think we should now be shooting for +255

Posted by: AoSHQ's Truman North at October 18, 2010 10:47 AM (G5JPI)

3 We are really peaking nicely. Hopefully, the people will no longer trust/believe the Dems and MFM not just this election cycle, but whenever they open their collective commie pie-hole.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 18, 2010 10:47 AM (9Cooa)

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 18, 2010 10:47 AM (0fzsA)

5 Why is Megyn Kelly devoting time to Will Folks bs?

Posted by: Timbo at October 18, 2010 10:50 AM (ph9vn)

6 It's never too early to point out that your opponent is, in fact, a witch.

Posted by: Chris Coons at October 18, 2010 10:50 AM (FcR7P)

7 ...or a whore.

Posted by: Jerry Brown at October 18, 2010 10:51 AM (FcR7P)

8 Posted by: Timbo at October 18, 2010 02:50 PM (ph9vn)

Because if she can get Nikki on the show, ratings will go through the roof from the 'diverse' hotness

Posted by: phreshone at October 18, 2010 10:51 AM (1AnxB)

9 So the public is to believe a new round of attack ads when the last was generally shown to be spurious and off the mark? 

Yea, go with that.  Go with it hard.

In any other year than this one it might have worked.  This time its going to result in further Dem slippage.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at October 18, 2010 10:51 AM (iXYhK)

10 It's never too early to point out that your opponent is, in fact, a witch. Qwitcher bellyaching! You got better.

Posted by: fluffy at October 18, 2010 10:52 AM (4Kl5M)

11 Although I appreciate Dick Morris' gung-ho "Dems have no shot in hell" attitude and the whole "of course 100+ seats are possible just buy my newsletter to find out how" schtick, it is after all, Dick Morris. Icky. But appreciated nonetheless.

Posted by: Olliander at October 18, 2010 10:52 AM (6uiF7)

12 Why is Megyn Kelly devoting time to Will Folks bs? Posted by: Timbo at October 18, 2010 02:50 PM (ph9vn) Because we still have 2 1/2 weeks to kill

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 18, 2010 10:52 AM (0GFWk)

13 I expected the polls to narrow somewhat after Labor Day, but some of these polls showing large gains for the Dems are just bullshit spin and wishful thinking.

Posted by: Vic at October 18, 2010 10:53 AM (/jbAw)

14 ACE, PLEASE EMAIL ME, you can see my email

I have got to move on a project, that will make your day. 

Trying to get this done for Election celebration, BUT I need YOUR help.

Trust me this is good shit!

Kemp

Posted by: Kemp at October 18, 2010 10:53 AM (AQxTm)

15 A pickup of somewhere between 42 and 102 seats seems to be the conventional wisdom....

I'll be happy with +75, and seeing madam squeak-hole lose her gavel.   I'd be *really* happy with +100 and seeing madam squeak-hole run out of town completely...

Posted by: Original Mikey at October 18, 2010 10:53 AM (dOatv)

16 If you go to my.barackobama.com and click on volunteer, you can make phone calls to registered Dems and, in their words, "...stand with President Obama to bring about a new era of security and prosperity. The challenges we face canÂ’t be solved by one person alone. We need you to get involved." I got to make some of the most verbally abusive phone calls I've ever made, and had a wonderful time. I guess the Donks are right: I really am evil and stupid, and it feels great.

Posted by: cali grump at October 18, 2010 10:53 AM (hL0k8)

17

Over the next two decades, poli-sci professors will use the 2008-2010-2012 election period and Dempocalypse Extinction as a case study in what not to do.  Sorta like how Phar-Mor, Sunbeam, MCI, Enron, and Arther Andersen are used as CPA case studies on audit failures.

Posted by: Count de Monet at October 18, 2010 10:55 AM (2g2ex)

18 Twitch Strickland in Ohio has run nothing but negative ads and they just keep getting more ludicrous. I've seen fewer lawn signs for him than anyone, even in the lib sections in the Cleveland suburbs. Kasich is finally running some counter ads but I don't even think that's necessary; sticking to the issues is a more effective use of funds.

Posted by: Captain Hate at October 18, 2010 10:56 AM (hRNYI)

19 I got to make some of the most verbally abusive phone calls I've ever made, and had a wonderful time. I guess the Donks are right: I really am evil and stupid, and it feels great.

Posted by: cali grump at October 18, 2010 02:53 PM (hL0k


Sounds like a good idea, AND both my landlines say PRIVATE.

Posted by: Kemp at October 18, 2010 10:56 AM (AQxTm)

20

All I can say is

"Buckets O'Pudding"

Has a nice ring, doesn't it?

just sayin'

Posted by: BIG ROB at October 18, 2010 10:58 AM (K6o07)

21 I'm sticking with 72/11.


Oh. My. God. What is 72 divided by 8? Nine (72÷8=9). So Ace is predicting another 9/11? For shame.

Posted by: Yhe DNC, Not Desperate at October 18, 2010 10:58 AM (Y81Xa)

22 I think they're being cautious because to say what you really think would make you sound crazy.

I'm sticking with 72/11. And I don't believe that prediction at all.

Posted by: Ace at 02:43 PM

Welcome aboard. 

Posted by: The Crazy Train at October 18, 2010 10:58 AM (pUfK9)

23 The Empire is Striking Back!

Posted by: President Barracky Pissypants at October 18, 2010 10:58 AM (9hSKh)

24 Rasmussen has Buck up by 2 in Colorado.  The wave is over.





What do you mean, I am doing this wrong?

Posted by: Bill, Brother of Greg at October 18, 2010 10:59 AM (Snu7z)

25 I like Dick Morris but dammit, he's always too optimistic.

Posted by: maddogg at October 18, 2010 10:59 AM (OlN4e)

26 What happened after the empire struck back?  That's right, comeback!

Posted by: Barry the Deranged Orator at October 18, 2010 11:00 AM (GwPRU)

27 Why is Megyn Kelly devoting time to Will Folks bs?

Posted by: Timbo at October 18, 2010 02:50 PM (ph9vn)

Because we still have 2 1/2 weeks to kill

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 18, 2010 02:52 PM (0GFWk)

The question she posed before I turned it off was "can he he prosecuted for lying under oath?".

They are trying to gin up some more controversy. What they should be asking is "why did he shutdown and then restart in October?".

Lying under oath in a non-governmental statement is not a crime. Folks knows that or he wouldn't have pulled this stunt.

What he needs is for Haley's husband to beat the hell out of him. I have a feeling that will happen AFTER the election.

I also have a feeling that since his career as a political "consultant" is now dead as Julius Cesar he will be leaving the State for safer regions before the polls open on Nov 2. 

Posted by: Vic at October 18, 2010 11:00 AM (/jbAw)

28
I think it was someone at NRO who recently made the case for the Empire.

Anyone remember that?

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 18, 2010 11:00 AM (gM4zK)

29 We need to get ABC's political analyst Meghan McCain on the show immediately. Her political insight on the 2010 House races is just what this show needs.

Posted by: Parker/Spitzer at October 18, 2010 11:00 AM (6uiF7)

30

I really need posts such as this. I got in a very angry argument with 3 of my spouse's friends this weekend at a party , (never talk politics with friends) ugh.

They had no idea who pelosi even was but were certain republicans caused every damn'd thing that is wrong. only reason frank wsn't liked because he is gay  ARGH.. health care was Needed and a right or all, and believed it really is FREE

They were also certain republicans have had super majority for 50  years and that's why we're broke. They had nooo idea dems have been in charge with keyes to the safe for four years. they believe that republicans being jerks were why Obamas hopes are not  realized. I felt insane  after the disussion and and truly blew them all off forever more as people i cannot ever ever associate myself with again. realy these people vote!!!

whew, there's my rant, and thanks for being here.

Posted by: willow at October 18, 2010 11:01 AM (nO7/c)

31 I think they're being cautious because to say what you really think would make you sound crazy.


I see what you're saying.  *ace is predicting CO'D to win* *runs*

Posted by: Editor at October 18, 2010 11:01 AM (pUfK9)

32 At this point, I'm more concerned with the Senate than the House barring some high-profile Dems getting turfed like Kucinich, Hoyer, Fwank, Dingell, etc.

The "upset special" I'm going with right now out of the Senate seats would probably be Wargotz over Mikluski in Maryland.  There hasn't been any polling there in several weeks despite a lot of vulnerable House members like Hoyer getting reinforcement from Obama and Biden.  If the Republicans are surging in the House districts there, that may mean enough for Wargotz to overtake that her for the win.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at October 18, 2010 11:01 AM (wDKwf)

33

Over the next two decades, poli-sci professors will use the 2008-2010-2012 election period and Dempocalypse Extinction as a case study in what not to do.  Sorta like how Phar-Mor, Sunbeam, MCI, Enron, and Arther Andersen are used as CPA case studies on audit failures.

Disagree.  They will point to this as an example of how people will be swayed by hatred and fear of black people.

Posted by: AoSHQ's Truman North at October 18, 2010 11:01 AM (G5JPI)

34

This morning I saw a Periello ad against Hurt (VA-5): "10 years of Hurt is enough."

During the local (Richmond) news. Four times in 20 minutes, on the same channel.

Holy shit- money to burn... or desperation?

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at October 18, 2010 11:01 AM (SCcgT)

35 Republicans are reanimated dead meat from failed science experiments on laboratory monkeys.  And you know who reanimated them?  Satan!

Posted by: Kook Fringe Media aka Mainstream Media at October 18, 2010 11:03 AM (xxgag)

36 I have an affidavit!!!

Posted by: Will Folks, The most honorable man in the world at October 18, 2010 11:03 AM (Snu7z)

37 I see the missing of church brings out the pessimism. 

Posted by: Editor at October 18, 2010 11:03 AM (pUfK9)

38

I'm alone up here in Obotistan.  The mood is grim.  No one to vote for, just agin.  They're all very worried about their future, and their chillin's.

Was up in MN 8 for the last few.  Saw maybe half-dozen signs for the incumbent,  scads for the challenger.

There's only one thing that could mitigate Dim extinction, dental records.

Posted by: gary gulrud at October 18, 2010 11:06 AM (/g2vP)

39 Some dopey lib was just on Megyn Kelly saying that Christine O'Donnell hates rape victims. They're gonna make sweet love to these chickens until they all smell like Frank Perdue.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 18, 2010 11:06 AM (zDAlI)

40 Geraghty just updated his list of vulnerable House seats, and says with over 100 in play, he cant see the GOP winning less than 40. Also, he put a fork in NJ-6 Ugh.

Posted by: Olliander at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (6uiF7)

41 Eh, I thought he brought it quite a bit more last night than Thursday.

Posted by: Editor at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (pUfK9)

42 @32 That was at Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler

Posted by: Will Folks, The most honorable man in the world at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (Snu7z)

43

You all know of course, that good can come out of lefty causes:

http://tinyurl.com/2emoxoj

They give young women yet more excuses to take their clothes off in public (as if they needed any more excuses - "Hey Tiffany, it's Tuesday.  Let's go take our clothes off in public, again!"

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (RkRxq)

44

Over the next two decades, poli-sci professors will use the 2008-2010-2012 election period and Dempocalypse Extinction as a case study in what not to do.  Sorta like how Phar-Mor, Sunbeam, MCI, Enron, and Arther Andersen are used as CPA case studies on audit failures.

Disagree.  They will point to this as an example of how people will be swayed by hatred and fear of black people.

Posted by: AoSHQ's Truman North at October 18, 2010 03:01 PM (G5JPI)

We could have had utopia.  Everybody wearing silk underwear.  Everybody living  (and loving IYKWIMAITTYD) until 175.  Everybody bank presidents who come in at 10:00 and leave by 3:00.  But no.  Our hatred and fear of black people cast us out of Eden.

Posted by: Future Kook Fringe Historian aka Mainstream Historian at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (xxgag)

45 32  I think it was someone at NRO who recently made the case for the Empire.

Don't think it was NRO, but The Weekly Standard.  Does this look familiar?

The Case for the Empire

STAR WARS RETURNS today with its fifth installment, "Attack of the Clones." There will be talk of the Force and the Dark Side and the epic morality of George Lucas's series. But the truth is that from the beginning, Lucas confused the good guys with the bad. The deep lesson of Star Wars is that the Empire is good.

It's a difficult leap to make--embracing Darth Vader and the Emperor over the plucky and attractive Luke Skywalker and Princess Leia--but a careful examination of the facts, sorted apart from Lucas's off-the-shelf moral cues, makes a quite convincing case.



Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 18, 2010 11:08 AM (9hSKh)

46

whew, there's my rant, and thanks for being here.

Posted by: willow at October 18, 2010 03:01 PM (nO7/c)

 

Yeah, but do you really believe that these political retards are going to actually get off of their asses and vote in a mid-term election?  It's been my experience that sub-morons like this only drag their uneducated asses to the polls when there's a Presidential election; and then only sometimes.  Like when they've been told it's historic or some shit. 

Posted by: The Outlaw in the Heavenly Hall at October 18, 2010 11:08 AM (E0EDC)

47

Posted by: willow at October 18, 2010 03:01 PM (nO7/c)

Were you able to keep from insulting them and wondering how they could be so oblivious and why their heads don't cave in from obvious being a vacuum of epic proportions? 

But remember John Kerry says people that vote for Republicans are the stupid ones.

Posted by: buzzion at October 18, 2010 11:09 AM (oVQFe)

48 As the great and lovely Ann Coulter said, it's Dick Morris' job to whisper sweet nothings in conservatives' ears.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 18, 2010 11:09 AM (zDAlI)

49 That does it! I've wasted enough money on this election. It's bad enough that I had to spend a small fortune to buy the 2008 election- now all I have to show for it is this impending tidal wave of a backlash. Fuck you ingrates!

Posted by: George Soros at October 18, 2010 11:11 AM (wFMDa)

50 Don't get too cocky, Sparky.  The Democrats haven't conceded a single seat yet.

First of all, in many areas under Democratic occupation, winning isn't enough to take "their" seats.  You must also win by enough so that cheating becomes impossible.  As the Blogfather said, "If it isn't close, they can't cheat."  Don't count on any close wins that have to go through a Democrat-run recount.

Secondly, they have plenty of money and will use it to GOTV.  Their brain-dead constituents, whether in public housing projects or on university campuses or drunk in alleyways, will be paid, bused to the polls, and encouraged to vote at least once.  They may not be "enthusiastic," but they will take the $20 and the free meal/cigarettes and get on the damn bus.

The voting machines can't tell how "enthusiastic" you are.  Don't underestimate these people.  They will stop at nothing.  Their only moral guide is, "What would Stalin do?"

Put the corks back in the champagne bottles.  There will be plenty of time for celebration after the results are certified.

Posted by: Adjoran at October 18, 2010 11:11 AM (VfmLu)

51
Don't think it was NRO, but The Weekly Standard.  Does this look familiar?

Yeah that's it. Fuck the Rebels.

Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 18, 2010 11:12 AM (gM4zK)

52

Posted by: willow at October 18, 2010 03:01 PM (nO7/c)

Eh...I over heard die-hard Union-Democrats bemoaning the possible Blumenthal win in CT. Funny thing is, I was at a party in Jersey!! Oh the wave is coming and its gonna be spectacular!

  

Posted by: dananjcon at October 18, 2010 11:13 AM (pr+up)

53

whew, there's my rant, and thanks for being here.

Willow, your job there isn't done. When the people you are speaking to are so ignorant they don't know who the Speaker is or who controls Congress, your job then is to convince them not to vote.

Just ask them if they feel like they are informed enough to vote. Most likely they're looking for an excuse to stay home eating Chee-tos on the couch anyway.

Posted by: spongeworthy at October 18, 2010 11:13 AM (rplL3)

54 Dick Morris is "Poppin' Fresh," only with hair and a fat wallet. Both of 'em pull numbers and opinions out of their ever-spreading asses and dispense them to idiots who have no senses of smell.

Morris was, after all, a prime lickspittle for Bubba Clinton. He's making more money dispensing his useless babble to "conservatives" now.

Posted by: MrScribbler at October 18, 2010 11:13 AM (Ulu3i)

55 Dick Morris is a great American!

Posted by: S Hannity at October 18, 2010 11:15 AM (pr+up)

56 What are you people, stupid? Vote for us and we'll make sure that your grandchildren have to suffer just like you do.

Posted by: Generalissimo O at October 18, 2010 11:17 AM (FcR7P)

57

Outlaw and Buzzion, I did become insulting., thought better of it and decided to go get my spouse  I told him , "say i'm always a witc and just like to argue aboutanything " and then asked him to make sure He  husband votes early on the 2nd and than have a party supplyig all the booze and hamburgers for his friends (so they cannot make it in to vote)

I doubt they even know the day to vote. fingers crossed

Posted by: willow at October 18, 2010 11:19 AM (nO7/c)

58

Dick Morris gives fair and balanced political commentary, like me. Now got to my website and buy some Factor Gear!

 

Posted by: Oreilly B. at October 18, 2010 11:19 AM (pr+up)

59

  You must also win by enough so that cheating becomes impossible. 

This. Usually, I give the dems 1-3 points for fraud. This election cycle, I'm giving them 3-4, depending on the district. The dems know the jig is up and they've got to cheat like there's no tomorrow, because, for them, there really is no tomorrow. The shenanigans will be epic.

Posted by: TiredWench at October 18, 2010 11:21 AM (oPceJ)

60

Go to my website Dick Morris dot com for more in depth political analysis and while your there you can order my new book!

 

Posted by: D Morris at October 18, 2010 11:22 AM (pr+up)

61 Let's clear things up with Dick Morris. I'll be having him on my radio show in the next hour for about 30 minutes. Then he'll be on my TV show tonight for the whole hour. We'll get him back on the radio show this Wednesday, and probably for the TV show that night also. Maybe do it again Thursday. Oh, don't forget, tomorrow we'll have Karl Rove in the studio to debate Dick Morris who will be phoning in, he can't make it to the studio tomorrow. This is all about the conservative ascendancy.

Posted by: Sean Hannity at October 18, 2010 11:24 AM (6uiF7)

62 Empire striking back?

/Checks tag

...you don't say.

Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls... Dyin' time's here.

Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at October 18, 2010 11:30 AM (GBXon)

63 Oh, and if you're going to prank call the Dem base...tell 'em something like, I dunno, you can absentee vote up to a week after Nov. 2.

Now that may get results...

Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at October 18, 2010 11:32 AM (GBXon)

64 And I don't believe that prediction at all.

No prediction will be high enough, I'm convinced.  The number of "quiet" voters will astound all the "experts" this time.  100 isn't out of the question.  The lisping and sashaying Barney Frank (NTTAWWT)  will be one lonely Dude.

Posted by: hard hitting MSM Guardians at the Bridge at October 18, 2010 11:38 AM (71LDo)

65 Dick Morris before he dicks you.

Posted by: dfbaskwill at October 18, 2010 11:40 AM (71LDo)

66 73 House and 10 Senate.
That was my prediction in the beginning of the year.
And I am sticking with it.

Posted by: David at October 18, 2010 11:41 AM (F37ot)

67 Buy ammo now. When the Democrats try to call up enough of the dead to vote this election back to them, no way they can control them all.

Posted by: john F'kin Kerry at October 18, 2010 11:44 AM (TgXns)

68

If you go to my.barackobama.com and click on volunteer, you can make phone calls to registered Dems...

Call these people and pitch the (R).  You may be surprised with the favorable results.

Posted by: reason at October 18, 2010 11:53 AM (V40IZ)

69 Let's just say the leftists in charge of most polling have a greatly vested interest in charging up Democrat voters and dismaying Republican ones. They want to stop momentum any way they can so I'm highly skeptical of what we're being told.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 18, 2010 11:53 AM (61b7k)

70

Oh, and if you're going to prank call the Dem base...tell 'em something like, I dunno, you can absentee vote up to a week after Nov. 2.

Ask them how many times they're comfortable voting, and if they are willing to travel to nearby precincts.

Posted by: reason at October 18, 2010 11:55 AM (V40IZ)

71

Prediction 69

Just to be adolescent and to piss off Bwarney.

Posted by: dagny at October 18, 2010 11:56 AM (483hw)

72 83 Nah, they're likely to count those.  This way is more...elegant.

Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at October 18, 2010 11:57 AM (GBXon)

73 The only thing that is dismaying Republican voters is the state of the country.

Posted by: Luca Brasi at October 18, 2010 12:13 PM (YmPwQ)

74 So it turns out that it isn't so much the SIZE of your lie, but when you use it, that matters.

You'd this Democrats, Who Lie About Everything, would have figured that one out. I mean, "don't give people time to figure out that you're lying" may not be an oft-stated rule, but it seems fairly obvious and is probably in the Con-Man handbook.

In short, forget an October Surprise, you really want a November Surprise.

Posted by: Merovign, Strong on His Mountain at October 18, 2010 12:14 PM (bxiXv)

75 87 in the house, 7 in the Senate, a Rangers-Giants World Series, Andy Kaufman will remain dead, and several more penis shots from NFL QBs, including Jay Cutler (priapism due to frequent sacks on his head and diabetes) and Tony Romo (we can dream, can't we). 

Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 18, 2010 12:25 PM (3iMgs)

76

This. Usually, I give the dems 1-3 points for fraud. This election cycle, I'm giving them 3-4, depending on the district. The dems know the jig is up and they've got to cheat like there's no tomorrow, because, for them, there really is no tomorrow. The shenanigans will be epic.

Posted by: TiredWench at October 18, 2010 03:21 PM (oPceJ)

That's not how it works - they need motivated foot soldiers to pull their tricks. They will probably be thin on the ground this time around.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 18, 2010 12:44 PM (z1N6a)

77 Hell! The electorate is so thoroughly enraged with these professional, socialist politicians, I see no reason at all why we shouldn't be able to win at least 125 seats in the Senate alone. (Q. Would that be a 'veto-proof' number? If not, let's aim for a larger number!)

Posted by: alwyr at October 18, 2010 12:49 PM (w2++y)

78 Rasmussen expanded its prediction to 55 seats; ABCNews notes that 63 Democrats are in "serious danger." I don't think anyone believes these predictions, least of all the people making them. I think they're being cautious because to say what you really think would make you sound crazy. I'm sticking with 72/11. And I don't believe that prediction at all. Professional predictions are based on seat-by-seat models. Which are fine most of the time. They don't work in a WAVE ELECTION because the modelers don't have significant practical experience with waves - waves don't happen often enough. So they run their models and come up with 45, 55, 63 whatever. They have a hunch there's something BIG coming but don't know how to crunch the numbers of a wave that hasn't struck yet. I'm sticking with 60 (but over 100 in the house is really plausible!) -------------- > 92... I see no reason at all why we shouldn't be able to win at least 125 seats in the Senate alone. Posted by: alwyr I like your ideas and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

Posted by: Comrade Zombie Arthur at October 18, 2010 01:28 PM (1R4EO)

79 Why is Megyn Kelly devoting time to Will Folks bs?

Because Nikki Haley's lead has dropped according to recent polls, albeit two coming from Democrats. But RCP has her average down to 10.3, because the two polls claim her lead is between 5 and 9 points. Haley has taken lumps on her family's finances (a minor allegation) but the real damage (if the polls are correct) comes from SC conservatives attacking her marriage and calling her an adulteress. Interestingly, Jim DeMint has been claiming she flip flopped on school choice, and it's a longtime Republican consultant who has co-written a book with DeMint, Dr. David Woodard, a Clemson University poli sci prof, who has been most vocal in demands that she release her emails.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 18, 2010 01:32 PM (mHQ7T)

80 Haley has taken lumps on her family's finances (a minor allegation) but the real damage (if the polls are correct) comes from SC conservatives attacking her marriage and calling her an adulteress.

Actually those were "concern trolls" brought forward by the Democrats and published in the Democrat PR rag in Columbia.

This is a new tactic, concern trolls for newspaper reporters. If you read the quotes in the paper and posted them on this site people would laugh because it would be so obvious. The regulars would think it was a concern troll parody.

The poll numbers dropped because they are BS polls from left leaning assholes.

She will win by more than 10 points.

Posted by: Vic at October 18, 2010 01:51 PM (/jbAw)

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