October 18, 2010
— Ace Democrats were in big trouble over policy and results. So they blitzed their opponents with negative ads -- but way too early. Desperate to get a toe-hold, they threw the sink at Republicans, gaining 5 or so points in the polls.
But too early.
[I]n most districts, the negatives assumed a more personal and harsher character. Watching them, one felt not only that the Republican should not be elected, but that he should be imprisoned. The vitriolic negatives played fast and loose with the facts....
The attacks sent Republicans reeling. Democrats did not pace themselves and opened up with all they had, usually throwing the harshest negatives first. Throughout the country, Republicans slipped back and Democrats managed to reestablish leads. In the Senate races, Angle fell behind in Nevada, Rossi dropped in Washington, O'Donnell lost points in Delaware. And in dozens of House races, the Republicans fell back.
In the past two weeks, these races have stabilized and the Republican has come back. The negatives have worn off. Republicans have answered the charges and shown how ridiculous they are. And voters have reminded themselves that on the key issues of the day -- stimulus, Obamacare, cap-and-trade, and TARP -- they agree with the Republicans and not with the Democrats. These underlying Republican advantages have become more manifest.
As Mark Twain said, "A lie can make it half way around the world before the truth has time to put its boots on." It took all of two or three weeks for the Republicans to put on their boots to pursue the Democratic negatives. But, by late September, they were fully shod and were overcoming the negative attacks.
Now Republicans are opening up good-sized leads again, particularly in House races, and the Democratic attacks are being seen as shrill, inaccurate, and ineffective."
At Hot Air, it's noted that the Democrats claim they actually took it easy in September with television ads and now intend to blitz the Republicans. But the Democrats can't run on their record, and their negative attacks have largely been digested by the public and found to be not all that persuasive.
So what's this money going to be used for?
Well, for GOTV, I guess. So be the wave.
But this strategy seems to have backfired anyway-- because while Democrats were saving up for their October blitz, Republicans were... spending money in September, but also outraising them in September, so that they're ready to play in October too:
A long roster of House Democratic incumbents found themselves outraised by GOP challengers during the third quarter — the latest sign that cash is following Republican momentum just weeks from the midterms.At least 40 Democrats took in less cash than their opponents — a list that ranges from vulnerable freshmen like Alabama’s Bobby Bright, Mississippi’s Travis Childers, and Nevada’s Dina Titus to more senior members like Nick Rahall of West Virginia and Paul Kanjorski of Pennsylvania.
House Speaker Nancy PelosiÂ’s Republican challenger outraised her by more than 3-to-1, taking in more than $1.1 million over the past three months. John Dennis, the Ron Paul-backed GOP nominee running against Pelosi in her liberal San Francisco-based district, raised roughly five times as much as he collected in the previous quarter, tapping into resentment against the leader of the Democratic majority in the House.
The development comes at a time when GOP outside groups are already far outspending Democratic-aligned organizations. This week, the Karl Rove-linked American Crossroads and a collection of affiliated Republican-friendly organizations announced they would spend more than $50 million on TV ads slamming House Democrats. The National Republican Congressional Committee, meanwhile, has announced that it plans to expand its TV ad campaign to $50 million as it attempts to expand the number of Democratic targets.
Rasmussen expanded its prediction to 55 seats; ABCNews notes that 63 Democrats are in "serious danger."
I don't think anyone believes these predictions, least of all the people making them. I think they're being cautious because to say what you really think would make you sound crazy.
I'm sticking with 72/11. And I don't believe that prediction at all.
Posted by: Ace at
10:43 AM
| Comments (80)
Post contains 706 words, total size 5 kb.
Posted by: AoSHQ's Truman North at October 18, 2010 10:47 AM (G5JPI)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 18, 2010 10:47 AM (9Cooa)
Posted by: Timbo at October 18, 2010 10:50 AM (ph9vn)
Posted by: Chris Coons at October 18, 2010 10:50 AM (FcR7P)
Because if she can get Nikki on the show, ratings will go through the roof from the 'diverse' hotness
Posted by: phreshone at October 18, 2010 10:51 AM (1AnxB)
Yea, go with that. Go with it hard.
In any other year than this one it might have worked. This time its going to result in further Dem slippage.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at October 18, 2010 10:51 AM (iXYhK)
Posted by: fluffy at October 18, 2010 10:52 AM (4Kl5M)
Posted by: Olliander at October 18, 2010 10:52 AM (6uiF7)
Posted by: nevergiveup at October 18, 2010 10:52 AM (0GFWk)
Posted by: Vic at October 18, 2010 10:53 AM (/jbAw)
I have got to move on a project, that will make your day.
Trying to get this done for Election celebration, BUT I need YOUR help.
Trust me this is good shit!
Kemp
Posted by: Kemp at October 18, 2010 10:53 AM (AQxTm)
I'll be happy with +75, and seeing madam squeak-hole lose her gavel. I'd be *really* happy with +100 and seeing madam squeak-hole run out of town completely...
Posted by: Original Mikey at October 18, 2010 10:53 AM (dOatv)
Posted by: cali grump at October 18, 2010 10:53 AM (hL0k8)
Over the next two decades, poli-sci professors will use the 2008-2010-2012 election period and Dempocalypse Extinction as a case study in what not to do. Sorta like how Phar-Mor, Sunbeam, MCI, Enron, and Arther Andersen are used as CPA case studies on audit failures.
Posted by: Count de Monet at October 18, 2010 10:55 AM (2g2ex)
Posted by: Captain Hate at October 18, 2010 10:56 AM (hRNYI)
Posted by: cali grump at October 18, 2010 02:53 PM (hL0k
Sounds like a good idea, AND both my landlines say PRIVATE.
Posted by: Kemp at October 18, 2010 10:56 AM (AQxTm)
Oh. My. God. What is 72 divided by 8? Nine (72÷8=9). So Ace is predicting another 9/11? For shame.
Posted by: Yhe DNC, Not Desperate at October 18, 2010 10:58 AM (Y81Xa)
I'm sticking with 72/11. And I don't believe that prediction at all.
Posted by: Ace at 02:43 PM
Welcome aboard.
Posted by: The Crazy Train at October 18, 2010 10:58 AM (pUfK9)
Posted by: President Barracky Pissypants at October 18, 2010 10:58 AM (9hSKh)
What do you mean, I am doing this wrong?
Posted by: Bill, Brother of Greg at October 18, 2010 10:59 AM (Snu7z)
Posted by: maddogg at October 18, 2010 10:59 AM (OlN4e)
Posted by: Barry the Deranged Orator at October 18, 2010 11:00 AM (GwPRU)
Posted by: Timbo at October 18, 2010 02:50 PM (ph9vn)
Because we still have 2 1/2 weeks to kill
Posted by: nevergiveup at October 18, 2010 02:52 PM (0GFWk)
The question she posed before I turned it off was "can he he prosecuted for lying under oath?".
They are trying to gin up some more controversy. What they should be asking is "why did he shutdown and then restart in October?".
Lying under oath in a non-governmental statement is not a crime. Folks knows that or he wouldn't have pulled this stunt.
What he needs is for Haley's husband to beat the hell out of him. I have a feeling that will happen AFTER the election.
I also have a feeling that since his career as a political "consultant" is now dead as Julius Cesar he will be leaving the State for safer regions before the polls open on Nov 2.
Posted by: Vic at October 18, 2010 11:00 AM (/jbAw)
Posted by: Parker/Spitzer at October 18, 2010 11:00 AM (6uiF7)
I really need posts such as this. I got in a very angry argument with 3 of my spouse's friends this weekend at a party , (never talk politics with friends) ugh.
They had no idea who pelosi even was but were certain republicans caused every damn'd thing that is wrong. only reason frank wsn't liked because he is gay ARGH.. health care was Needed and a right or all, and believed it really is FREE
They were also certain republicans have had super majority for 50 years and that's why we're broke. They had nooo idea dems have been in charge with keyes to the safe for four years. they believe that republicans being jerks were why Obamas hopes are not realized. I felt insane after the disussion and and truly blew them all off forever more as people i cannot ever ever associate myself with again. realy these people vote!!!
whew, there's my rant, and thanks for being here.
Posted by: willow at October 18, 2010 11:01 AM (nO7/c)
I see what you're saying. *ace is predicting CO'D to win* *runs*
Posted by: Editor at October 18, 2010 11:01 AM (pUfK9)
The "upset special" I'm going with right now out of the Senate seats would probably be Wargotz over Mikluski in Maryland. There hasn't been any polling there in several weeks despite a lot of vulnerable House members like Hoyer getting reinforcement from Obama and Biden. If the Republicans are surging in the House districts there, that may mean enough for Wargotz to overtake that her for the win.
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at October 18, 2010 11:01 AM (wDKwf)
Over the next two decades, poli-sci professors will use the 2008-2010-2012 election period and Dempocalypse Extinction as a case study in what not to do. Sorta like how Phar-Mor, Sunbeam, MCI, Enron, and Arther Andersen are used as CPA case studies on audit failures.
Disagree. They will point to this as an example of how people will be swayed by hatred and fear of black people.
Posted by: AoSHQ's Truman North at October 18, 2010 11:01 AM (G5JPI)
This morning I saw a Periello ad against Hurt (VA-5): "10 years of Hurt is enough."
During the local (Richmond) news. Four times in 20 minutes, on the same channel.
Holy shit- money to burn... or desperation?
Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at October 18, 2010 11:01 AM (SCcgT)
Posted by: Kook Fringe Media aka Mainstream Media at October 18, 2010 11:03 AM (xxgag)
Posted by: Editor at October 18, 2010 11:03 AM (pUfK9)
I'm alone up here in Obotistan. The mood is grim. No one to vote for, just agin. They're all very worried about their future, and their chillin's.
Was up in MN 8 for the last few. Saw maybe half-dozen signs for the incumbent, scads for the challenger.
There's only one thing that could mitigate Dim extinction, dental records.
Posted by: gary gulrud at October 18, 2010 11:06 AM (/g2vP)
Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 18, 2010 11:06 AM (zDAlI)
Posted by: Olliander at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (6uiF7)
Posted by: Editor at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (pUfK9)
Posted by: Will Folks, The most honorable man in the world at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (Snu7z)
You all know of course, that good can come out of lefty causes:
They give young women yet more excuses to take their clothes off in public (as if they needed any more excuses - "Hey Tiffany, it's Tuesday. Let's go take our clothes off in public, again!"
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (RkRxq)
Over the next two decades, poli-sci professors will use the 2008-2010-2012 election period and Dempocalypse Extinction as a case study in what not to do. Sorta like how Phar-Mor, Sunbeam, MCI, Enron, and Arther Andersen are used as CPA case studies on audit failures.
Disagree. They will point to this as an example of how people will be swayed by hatred and fear of black people.
Posted by: AoSHQ's Truman North at October 18, 2010 03:01 PM (G5JPI)
We could have had utopia. Everybody wearing silk underwear. Everybody living (and loving IYKWIMAITTYD) until 175. Everybody bank presidents who come in at 10:00 and leave by 3:00. But no. Our hatred and fear of black people cast us out of Eden.
Posted by: Future Kook Fringe Historian aka Mainstream Historian at October 18, 2010 11:07 AM (xxgag)
Don't think it was NRO, but The Weekly Standard. Does this look familiar?
The Case for the Empire
STAR WARS RETURNS today with its fifth installment, "Attack of the Clones." There will be talk of the Force and the Dark Side and the epic morality of George Lucas's series. But the truth is that from the beginning, Lucas confused the good guys with the bad. The deep lesson of Star Wars is that the Empire is good.
It's a difficult leap to make--embracing Darth Vader and the Emperor over the plucky and attractive Luke Skywalker and Princess Leia--but a careful examination of the facts, sorted apart from Lucas's off-the-shelf moral cues, makes a quite convincing case.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 18, 2010 11:08 AM (9hSKh)
whew, there's my rant, and thanks for being here.
Posted by: willow at October 18, 2010 03:01 PM (nO7/c)
Yeah, but do you really believe that these political retards are going to actually get off of their asses and vote in a mid-term election? It's been my experience that sub-morons like this only drag their uneducated asses to the polls when there's a Presidential election; and then only sometimes. Like when they've been told it's historic or some shit.
Posted by: The Outlaw in the Heavenly Hall at October 18, 2010 11:08 AM (E0EDC)
Posted by: willow at October 18, 2010 03:01 PM (nO7/c)
Were you able to keep from insulting them and wondering how they could be so oblivious and why their heads don't cave in from obvious being a vacuum of epic proportions?
But remember John Kerry says people that vote for Republicans are the stupid ones.
Posted by: buzzion at October 18, 2010 11:09 AM (oVQFe)
Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 18, 2010 11:09 AM (zDAlI)
Posted by: George Soros at October 18, 2010 11:11 AM (wFMDa)
First of all, in many areas under Democratic occupation, winning isn't enough to take "their" seats. You must also win by enough so that cheating becomes impossible. As the Blogfather said, "If it isn't close, they can't cheat." Don't count on any close wins that have to go through a Democrat-run recount.
Secondly, they have plenty of money and will use it to GOTV. Their brain-dead constituents, whether in public housing projects or on university campuses or drunk in alleyways, will be paid, bused to the polls, and encouraged to vote at least once. They may not be "enthusiastic," but they will take the $20 and the free meal/cigarettes and get on the damn bus.
The voting machines can't tell how "enthusiastic" you are. Don't underestimate these people. They will stop at nothing. Their only moral guide is, "What would Stalin do?"
Put the corks back in the champagne bottles. There will be plenty of time for celebration after the results are certified.
Posted by: Adjoran at October 18, 2010 11:11 AM (VfmLu)
Don't think it was NRO, but The Weekly Standard. Does this look familiar?
Yeah that's it. Fuck the Rebels.
Posted by: Senator Soothsayer (R-AoS) at October 18, 2010 11:12 AM (gM4zK)
Posted by: willow at October 18, 2010 03:01 PM (nO7/c)
Eh...I over heard die-hard Union-Democrats bemoaning the possible Blumenthal win in CT. Funny thing is, I was at a party in Jersey!! Oh the wave is coming and its gonna be spectacular!
Posted by: dananjcon at October 18, 2010 11:13 AM (pr+up)
whew, there's my rant, and thanks for being here.
Willow, your job there isn't done. When the people you are speaking to are so ignorant they don't know who the Speaker is or who controls Congress, your job then is to convince them not to vote.
Just ask them if they feel like they are informed enough to vote. Most likely they're looking for an excuse to stay home eating Chee-tos on the couch anyway.
Posted by: spongeworthy at October 18, 2010 11:13 AM (rplL3)
Morris was, after all, a prime lickspittle for Bubba Clinton. He's making more money dispensing his useless babble to "conservatives" now.
Posted by: MrScribbler at October 18, 2010 11:13 AM (Ulu3i)
Posted by: Generalissimo O at October 18, 2010 11:17 AM (FcR7P)
Outlaw and Buzzion, I did become insulting., thought better of it and decided to go get my spouse I told him , "say i'm always a witc and just like to argue aboutanything " and then asked him to make sure He husband votes early on the 2nd and than have a party supplyig all the booze and hamburgers for his friends (so they cannot make it in to vote)
I doubt they even know the day to vote. fingers crossed
Posted by: willow at October 18, 2010 11:19 AM (nO7/c)
Dick Morris gives fair and balanced political commentary, like me. Now got to my website and buy some Factor Gear!
Posted by: Oreilly B. at October 18, 2010 11:19 AM (pr+up)
You must also win by enough so that cheating becomes impossible.
This. Usually, I give the dems 1-3 points for fraud. This election cycle, I'm giving them 3-4, depending on the district. The dems know the jig is up and they've got to cheat like there's no tomorrow, because, for them, there really is no tomorrow. The shenanigans will be epic.
Posted by: TiredWench at October 18, 2010 11:21 AM (oPceJ)
Go to my website Dick Morris dot com for more in depth political analysis and while your there you can order my new book!
Posted by: D Morris at October 18, 2010 11:22 AM (pr+up)
Posted by: Sean Hannity at October 18, 2010 11:24 AM (6uiF7)
/Checks tag
...you don't say.
Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls... Dyin' time's here.
Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at October 18, 2010 11:30 AM (GBXon)
Now that may get results...
Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at October 18, 2010 11:32 AM (GBXon)
No prediction will be high enough, I'm convinced. The number of "quiet" voters will astound all the "experts" this time. 100 isn't out of the question. The lisping and sashaying Barney Frank (NTTAWWT) will be one lonely Dude.
Posted by: hard hitting MSM Guardians at the Bridge at October 18, 2010 11:38 AM (71LDo)
That was my prediction in the beginning of the year.
And I am sticking with it.
Posted by: David at October 18, 2010 11:41 AM (F37ot)
Posted by: john F'kin Kerry at October 18, 2010 11:44 AM (TgXns)
If you go to my.barackobama.com and click on volunteer, you can make phone calls to registered Dems...
Call these people and pitch the (R). You may be surprised with the favorable results.
Posted by: reason at October 18, 2010 11:53 AM (V40IZ)
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at October 18, 2010 11:53 AM (61b7k)
Oh, and if you're going to prank call the Dem base...tell 'em something like, I dunno, you can absentee vote up to a week after Nov. 2.
Ask them how many times they're comfortable voting, and if they are willing to travel to nearby precincts.
Posted by: reason at October 18, 2010 11:55 AM (V40IZ)
Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at October 18, 2010 11:57 AM (GBXon)
Posted by: Luca Brasi at October 18, 2010 12:13 PM (YmPwQ)
You'd this Democrats, Who Lie About Everything, would have figured that one out. I mean, "don't give people time to figure out that you're lying" may not be an oft-stated rule, but it seems fairly obvious and is probably in the Con-Man handbook.
In short, forget an October Surprise, you really want a November Surprise.
Posted by: Merovign, Strong on His Mountain at October 18, 2010 12:14 PM (bxiXv)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 18, 2010 12:25 PM (3iMgs)
This. Usually, I give the dems 1-3 points for fraud. This election cycle, I'm giving them 3-4, depending on the district. The dems know the jig is up and they've got to cheat like there's no tomorrow, because, for them, there really is no tomorrow. The shenanigans will be epic.
Posted by: TiredWench at October 18, 2010 03:21 PM (oPceJ)
That's not how it works - they need motivated foot soldiers to pull their tricks. They will probably be thin on the ground this time around.
Posted by: Oldcat at October 18, 2010 12:44 PM (z1N6a)
Posted by: alwyr at October 18, 2010 12:49 PM (w2++y)
Posted by: Comrade Zombie Arthur at October 18, 2010 01:28 PM (1R4EO)
Because Nikki Haley's lead has dropped according to recent polls, albeit two coming from Democrats. But RCP has her average down to 10.3, because the two polls claim her lead is between 5 and 9 points. Haley has taken lumps on her family's finances (a minor allegation) but the real damage (if the polls are correct) comes from SC conservatives attacking her marriage and calling her an adulteress. Interestingly, Jim DeMint has been claiming she flip flopped on school choice, and it's a longtime Republican consultant who has co-written a book with DeMint, Dr. David Woodard, a Clemson University poli sci prof, who has been most vocal in demands that she release her emails.
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at October 18, 2010 01:32 PM (mHQ7T)
Actually those were "concern trolls" brought forward by the Democrats and published in the Democrat PR rag in Columbia.
This is a new tactic, concern trolls for newspaper reporters. If you read the quotes in the paper and posted them on this site people would laugh because it would be so obvious. The regulars would think it was a concern troll parody.
The poll numbers dropped because they are BS polls from left leaning assholes.
She will win by more than 10 points.
Posted by: Vic at October 18, 2010 01:51 PM (/jbAw)
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Posted by: El Guapo 2010 Campaign Manager at October 18, 2010 10:46 AM (rkCMG)