January 18, 2010
— Ace Had a lost weekend and am not really up on all of the specific polls, except the best poll for Coakley says it's a tie, Coakley's own polls say she's behind, and most polls are now somewhere in the 5-10 range for Brown.
I don't mean to pat myself on the back too hard but I did say (albeit in the comments) "This is going to happen. Wrap your minds around that."
I could just feel the momentum and the preference cascade working.
I am still hoping for a win, hard, partly because if Brown loses, I'll feel bad for encouraging hope.
I don't really want to get too cocky but it has been my (secret) prediction the race would end up 10-12 points for Brown.
But Rothernberg, for example, now says lean Brown. Days ago they changed it from Lean Coakley to Tossup, and now to lean Brown.
Rothenberg joins Cookin so designating the race.
And polls of specific counties and towns -- bellwethers -- show the race breaking for Brown.
Breaking hard for Brown, as Ben Smith says, with a Drudge-esque kick.
The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:• Brown (55 percent) leads Coakley (40 percent) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2 percent, while 3 percent are undecided.
• In Fitchburg, Brown (55 percent) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41 percent), with 2 percent for Kennedy and 2 percent undecided.
• Peabody voters give Brown (57 percent), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40 percent), with Kennedy polling 1 percent and 3 percent undecided.
And of course the White House is now predicting a Brown win.
Thanks to AHFF Geoff.
Sorry about this lame post, I often need "ice-breaker" posts to get me going.
Republican Tracking Poll: Brown Gained Support Over Weekend. "Can it happen? yes it can."
Awesome Video of Coakley Phone Bank. Actually, I can't see the video, but from the description, it sounds good. Let me know what I'm missing.
Thanks to Andrew for that, via Watchdog.
Posted by: Ace at
10:03 AM
| Comments (130)
Post contains 360 words, total size 3 kb.
Posted by: logprof at January 18, 2010 10:07 AM (gJL6J)
Ace's idea of foreplay?
Posted by: Long Island at January 18, 2010 10:07 AM (TiURi)
Posted by: RM at January 18, 2010 10:08 AM (1kwr2)
Also, quite apologizing.
We need to pass the hat and send you to one of those executive coaches. The first thing they teach is to never apologize. It sounds bad, but really when you think about it, how often do any of us really do something that warrants an apology? Except, perhaps, to the families of the hobos you've harvested.
Posted by: Y-not at January 18, 2010 10:08 AM (sey23)
Posted by: GuyfromNH at January 18, 2010 10:08 AM (GWXuo)
I don't mean to pat myself on the back too hard but I did say (albeit in the comments) "This is going to happen. Wrap your minds around that."
Shouldn't you saving that line for Wednesday?
Posted by: Chief Seattle at January 18, 2010 10:09 AM (z37MR)
Posted by: G. Steinbrenner at January 18, 2010 10:09 AM (0GFWk)
To paraphrase Ray School Buy Driver Nagin.
At the end of the day, Massachusetts will be a BROWN state a CHOCOLATE state.
Hahahahahahhahahaahahhaaha. Libtards, I'd suggest you get used to having your asses handed to you. It's time for payback.
Posted by: gus at January 18, 2010 10:10 AM (Vqruj)
Posted by: Powdered Toast Man at January 18, 2010 10:10 AM (6nhg7)
I thought you needed a case of Val-U-Rite and a tub of Ben-Gay.
Posted by: Iblis at January 18, 2010 10:11 AM (9221z)
Posted by: ParisParamus at January 18, 2010 10:11 AM (NPtVh)
Posted by: ford at January 18, 2010 10:11 AM (Ki7fm)
If the Brown voters don't bother, you know what THAT means... more ballots for us!
Posted by: dead wino at January 18, 2010 10:12 AM (9Sbz+)
Posted by: ErikW at January 18, 2010 10:13 AM (8oqCa)
Posted by: LGoPs at January 18, 2010 10:13 AM (v/rEn)
I predict all night ballot printing at DNC HQ.
Still have a bad feeling that a bunch of Coakly ballots will show days or weeks after the election.
Posted by: AndrewsDad at January 18, 2010 10:13 AM (C2//T)
Posted by: Vague, yet meaningless at January 18, 2010 10:14 AM (oCMdU)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at January 18, 2010 10:15 AM (9Cooa)
I'm sure he'll chalk it up to two things: (1) she didn't adhere strictly enough to his socialist platform and (2) it's an election involving typical white candidates voted for mainly by typical white people.
Posted by: Zeut's identical twin sister, Dingo at January 18, 2010 10:16 AM (sey23)
Today Instapundit, tomorrow the world!
Posted by: Sort-of-Mad Max at January 18, 2010 10:16 AM (aC0uO)
Posted by: Vague, yet meaningless at January 18, 2010 10:16 AM (oCMdU)
Posted by: Peaches at January 18, 2010 10:17 AM (9Wv2j)
Posted by: Coakley Headquarters at January 18, 2010 10:18 AM (muUqs)
Posted by: Opus at January 18, 2010 10:18 AM (IebeI)
Laying in a smelly sleeping bag with a used condom hanging out your ass listening to Kos snoring? I don't ever plan on feeling like that.
Posted by: Sort-of-Mad Max at January 18, 2010 10:19 AM (aC0uO)
Posted by: New White Panther at January 18, 2010 10:19 AM (3vgbT)
Dingo 31,I'm sure [Obama]'ll chalk [Coakley's FAIL] up to two things: ...(2) it's an election involving typical white candidates voted for mainly by typical white people.
I believe that Obama, thin-skinned wuss that he is, can be provoked into saying something along those lines. I'm more confident in predicting that his lovely wife will say it. Expand that to black academics and opinion-writers and the probability quickly approaches 1.
Posted by: Zimriel at January 18, 2010 10:19 AM (9Sbz+)
Posted by: Methos at January 18, 2010 10:19 AM (Xsi7M)
haha, Fred Smerlas and Steve Diosse are giving Doug Flutie shit for endorsing Hillary Clinton in '08
Posted by: Chief Seattle at January 18, 2010 10:21 AM (z37MR)
Posted by: Monty at January 18, 2010 10:22 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: St. Agnostica at January 18, 2010 10:22 AM (gbCNS)
Posted by: Methos at January 18, 2010 10:22 AM (Xsi7M)
Posted by: Schreiber at January 18, 2010 10:22 AM (KZ2iz)
(so we can watch the horror on MSNBC later).
This will be the first time in a very long time I will be tuning in to MSNBC. Heads will be exploding and very stupid things will be said.
Posted by: Jewells at January 18, 2010 10:23 AM (l/N7H)
Posted by: Ball Dipper at January 18, 2010 10:23 AM (ngD76)
Posted by: nevergiveup at January 18, 2010 10:24 AM (0GFWk)
This just in: Alex Rodriguez of the New England Bruins has endorsed my campaign!
We're rolling to Washington, Baby!
Posted by: Martha Coakle(e)y at January 18, 2010 10:24 AM (gJL6J)
Posted by: AmishDude at January 18, 2010 10:25 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: AmishDude at January 18, 2010 10:26 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: nevergiveup at January 18, 2010 02:24 PM (0GFWk)
A lot of Clinton supporters are very enthused about Brown (see: Hillbuzz blog). Many are still really pissed that she lost the nomination to the fascist fraud.
Posted by: Peaches at January 18, 2010 10:26 AM (9Wv2j)
Posted by: ParisParamus at January 18, 2010 10:27 AM (NPtVh)
Posted by: mystry at January 18, 2010 10:27 AM (kmgIE)
Posted by: Dr. Spank at January 18, 2010 10:27 AM (muUqs)
Posted by: maddogg at January 18, 2010 10:27 AM (OlN4e)
(so we can watch the horror on MSNBC later).
I actually did turn on MSNBC earlier, but I then realized that the real fun would begin with Tingles Matthews later on. Plus, I got hives from my first few minutes of watching earlier.
Posted by: St. Agnostica at January 18, 2010 10:28 AM (gbCNS)
I'm wondering what will come out of Chris Matthew's head when it asplode.
thinking...Hot dogs, Ex-Lax, and Katie Couric's pantyhose
Posted by: Dan Rather at January 18, 2010 10:28 AM (+FkcS)
Posted by: RondoHatton at January 18, 2010 10:29 AM (caUKO)
Posted by: nevergiveup at January 18, 2010 10:29 AM (0GFWk)
Off Topic: Is the Ace conference still in the plans for spring? I need to decide where/when to use vacation.
Posted by: Amaryllis at January 18, 2010 10:29 AM (FeoOw)
Posted by: maddogg at January 18, 2010 10:30 AM (OlN4e)
I was unhappy when Obama was elected President, but never would I support election fraud to prevent that outcome. This is America, not some 3rd world corruptocracy. As an American, I support the legitimacy of the candidates elected by the people, even if I do not approve of them.
The problem is that the left does not believe in democracy. They pay lip service to it of course, especially when they think doing so will get them what they want. But when it comes right down to it they don't believe in the notion of the majority rule. They believe that the "right" people should be in charge and make decisions for everyone else. When the majority refuses to vote for the left's preferred candidates, the lefties have no qualms about subverting the electoral process.
It may be that Brown is so far ahead that the lefties will not able able to commit enough voter fraud to overcome his lead. It may be that the level and extent of the fraud necessary would be so extreme and so blatant that it would below up in their faces. The only outcome that the lefties would fear more than Brown being elected is their own unmasking as criminals.
Then again voter fraud did get Al Franken "elected," so maybe they'll try it again.
Posted by: Lee at January 18, 2010 10:33 AM (8cnnJ)
The Big Show on WEEI (sports talk) is talking about Scott Brown! I dunno if they'll do this for the whole show but I suspect Scott will be talked about a lot because other than the Celtics and Bruins (who nobody cares about) there's nothing going on in Boston sports right now.
Posted by: Chief Seattle at January 18, 2010 10:33 AM (z37MR)
Posted by: Ken at January 18, 2010 10:33 AM (4JpPD)
tick tick tick, the countdown continues. More good news, Mass weather is not helping the dems as God casts an early ballot.
Posted by: booter at January 18, 2010 10:33 AM (eimUK)
I think the brownalanche will be followed by a brownalanche in the FirstPants.
But it should be a light-brown one.
Posted by: RightWingProf at January 18, 2010 10:34 AM (UOcNk)
Posted by: Another Slogan that Doesn't Work at January 18, 2010 10:34 AM (gJL6J)
Apology not accepted unless accompanied by a six-thousand word explanation.
Posted by: Waterhouse at January 18, 2010 10:35 AM (YLnnA)
Flutie was at the rally yesterday I was there I saw the hole thing.
Posted by: JOEFROMMASS at January 18, 2010 10:35 AM (FcLua)
Am I the only one who thinks that the lefties might attempt voter fraud to steal this election?
yeah, wow, we haven't even thought about that
Posted by: Chief Seattle at January 18, 2010 10:35 AM (z37MR)
I don't mean to pat myself on the back too hard but I did say (albeit in the comments) "This is going to happen. Wrap your minds around that."
Hitting a prediction feels good... I predicted in comments last week that we would see shots of LT pouting on the bench in the 4th quarter after the Chargers tanked, and what do you know.
I heard that Kaeding tried to hang himself today, but was unable to kick the chair out from beneath himself. what. too soon?
Posted by: Terry at January 18, 2010 10:35 AM (+7Usq)
I think that, because 1) they've never needed it before and 2) they had such very short notice that they'd need to play those kind of games, it would be a real scramble to commit enough fraud to change the outcome of this. Wasn't Marcia still up by 30 about 3 weeks ago?
Posted by: Peaches at January 18, 2010 10:36 AM (9Wv2j)
Posted by: AmishDude at January 18, 2010 10:37 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: Ken at January 18, 2010 02:33 PM (4JpPD)
She's a reporter and has promised to stay out of view on this race.
Welcome back, Ace! I felt like I was on a stopped train...in a tunnel...and nobody would announce why.
Posted by: Tami at January 18, 2010 10:39 AM (VuLos)
Posted by: Peaches at January 18, 2010 10:39 AM (9Wv2j)
I'm anticipating a Coakley upset, 55-41. It IS Massachusetts, after all.
All of these polls showing Brown in the lead is only forcing the Democrats to rally around a candidate they hate and didn't want to support.
Posted by: enoxo at January 18, 2010 10:40 AM (w2mMp)
Has anyone heard from Jesse Jackson on this one?
I'm just wondering how it feels when Scott Brown gets to be the one to cut Dr. Utopia's balls off.
Posted by: Winston Smith at January 18, 2010 10:41 AM (BFqyO)
Martha... let me count the way that I can cheat my way to Victory..Fix the voting machines. Run a program that Gives me 75% of the vote. No matter what lever was used. Absentee 300,000 should be enough. Bribe the cops watching the machines overnight. 0 recorded votes for the western half of the State should do it. Seems that there was a malfunction, and the votes disappered. A power failure, ice and snow blanked the State. ETC
Posted by: mystry at January 18, 2010 10:41 AM (kmgIE)
Titans will clash! Kraken will be released!
Posted by: Zombie movie trailer voiceover guy at January 18, 2010 10:42 AM (0K3p3)
Posted by: AmishDude at January 18, 2010 10:44 AM (T0NGe)
I live in MA-4, and it's Brown by a mile based on my unscientific yard sign count.
Don't get too excited. These idiots will still reelect Bawney Fwank in November.
Posted by: Andy at January 18, 2010 10:44 AM (5Rurq)
Posted by: Vet Missing Parts at January 18, 2010 10:45 AM (MCHyX)
Posted by: Vile Roman at January 18, 2010 10:45 AM (iBzKc)
I overheard someone saying that on "one of the news outlets" they were actually stating (cheering) that snow could prevent a bigger turnout in some of the more red areas. This was MSNBC I presume.
Is this ringing any bells w/anyone??
Posted by: laceyunderalls at January 18, 2010 10:45 AM (IIQIM)
Posted by: Coakley Headquarters at January 18, 2010 10:48 AM (muUqs)
Posted by: model_1066 at January 18, 2010 10:48 AM (IS0Mg)
Don't ask me why. It just will.
Posted by: rockhead at January 18, 2010 10:48 AM (RykTt)
The later of 8pm or the time/date they reach the number of Democrat votes needed for a win.
And about Flutie ... the Clinton endorsement probably did have a lot to do with her support of autism legislation. Scott Brown is very supportive in this area as well.
Posted by: Andy at January 18, 2010 10:50 AM (5Rurq)
Posted by: Vet Missing Parts at January 18, 2010 10:51 AM (MCHyX)
Posted by: ParisParamus at January 18, 2010 10:51 AM (NPtVh)
I wrote a poem for Marth/Bama/all socialists:
How do I despise thee? Let me count the ways.
I despise thee to the depth and breadth and height
My soul can reach, when feeling out of sight
For the ends of Being and ideal Grace.
I despise thee to the level of everyday's
Most quiet need, by sun and candle-light.
I despise thee freely, as men strive for Right;
I despise thee purely, as they turn from Praise.
I despise thee with a passion put to use
In my old griefs, and with my childhood's faith.
I despise thee with a hate I seemed to lose
With my lost saints, --- I despise thee with the breath,
Smiles, tears, of all my life! --- and, if God choose,
I shall despise thee until I die!
Pretty original, if I do say so myself.
Posted by: St. Agnostica at January 18, 2010 10:51 AM (gbCNS)
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at January 18, 2010 10:52 AM (i3AsK)
Posted by: schneedoo at January 18, 2010 10:53 AM (KNCWm)
Posted by: Crusty at January 18, 2010 10:55 AM (qzgbP)
I'm guessing that they've cleared over one third of your back by now.
Posted by: Little Miss Whatever at January 18, 2010 10:55 AM (xqhoO)
Wishful thinking. A Nor'easter wrapped inside a category 5 hurricane wouldn't keep me or any of the other Brown supporters I talked to at the Worcester rally yesterday away from the polls.
Besides, we're all 4-wheel drive truck-owning rednecks, don't you know?
Posted by: Andy at January 18, 2010 10:59 AM (5Rurq)
Posted by: bowel movement at January 18, 2010 10:59 AM (Fd5yK)
Who's been steering this train wreck?
BTW, Winston Wolf checked in on the headlines thread.
If you guys want to start sucking each others' dicks, you're good.
Posted by: Little Miss Whatever at January 18, 2010 11:00 AM (xqhoO)
Posted by: someone at January 18, 2010 11:02 AM (njJQD)
Friday night Johnny Winter and James Montgomery Blues Band, Brad Whitford from Aerosmith, Barry Goudreau from the band Boston, Ayla Brown and The Uptown Horns performed in Worcester
You are claiming that YOUNG people went to see those people?!! hahahaha
Posted by: Terry at January 18, 2010 11:04 AM (+7Usq)
The atmosphere was electrifying, crackling with excitement...like a morgue at 4:00am.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at January 18, 2010 11:04 AM (YiX3J)
For fuck's sake, buck up or stay in the truck.
Posted by: just dandy at January 18, 2010 11:11 AM (0MNro)
Posted by: bowel movement at January 18, 2010 11:12 AM (Fd5yK)
Posted by: bowel movement at January 18, 2010 11:14 AM (Fd5yK)
107 Pretty original, if I do say so myself.
Posted by: St. Agnostica
I don't know. It seems kind of familiar.
Posted by: zombie Elizabeth Barrett Browining at January 18, 2010 11:21 AM (kJLH9)
From The Corner: The same GOP operative is hearing that the White House has taken over their candidate's (it's safer to go without the name!) field operation. “They feel like they have stopped the bleeding and they have a shot. Not that they are going to win but, less optimistically, that they still have a shot.”
He adds that “they
are saying their numbers have them up — but that is W. modeling that
does not reflect this election and they know it. They are afraid a big
loss would produce a diaspora in Congress. That's why president had no
choice but to go.”
I don't know what "W. modeling" means but I think the "had no choice" line means that they were afraid that Coakley would get completely blown out. In an ordinary election, a loss is a loss. In this thing, the margin of victory means everything. Brown by 4 is easier to spin than Brown by 9. At this stage of a campaign like this, Coakley volunteers are just not showing up, not bothering, not knocking on doors, demoralized. The Obama campaign can't let that happen. They're putting on a band-aid, but keeping up a pace to the end.
Posted by: AmishDude at January 18, 2010 11:28 AM (T0NGe)
I told everyone....he was kidnapped by a buxom blonde and taken to a mountain lair where she totally exhausted the man into confusion. And all the while, the rest of us where leading our mundane lives, doing work, cooking, having parties, and posting away. And ace was being pushed to exhaustion and he forgot about the blog....
Posted by: curious at January 18, 2010 11:29 AM (p302b)
Posted by: GarandFan at January 18, 2010 11:35 AM (ZQBnQ)
Final ARG Poll:
Republican Scott Brown leads Democrat Martha Coakley 52% to 45% in the special Massachusetts US Senate race to replace Senator Ted Kennedy according to a telephone survey conducted January 15-17 among 600 likely voters in Massachusetts saying they will definitely vote in the special election on January 19
Posted by: Mal at January 18, 2010 11:35 AM (Z+qzA)
On the contrary, "Brown bagging it" means taking your own lunch to work instead of wasting hard-earned dollars eating out. It's a sign of self-sufficiency and frugality, so it's actually a pretty good metaphor for this campaign.
Posted by: just dandy at January 18, 2010 11:38 AM (0MNro)
@ 117 - The atmosphere was electrifying, crackling with excitement...like a morgue at 4:00am.
Well, where exactly did you think the Dems got the majority of their voters from?
Posted by: Xoxotl at January 18, 2010 02:22 PM (Aa1jp)
I think y'all are making too much of the video of the Coakley Call Center. Her GOTV callers were due to begin at 10:00, and the empty office was videoed at 10:20. BUT remember - it snowed that morning!
Heck, how were the teeming hoardes of volunteer callers supposed to get there in the snow? The shock of bad weather and cold winds in Boston in January probably had them frightened, and cowering in corners at home alone.
Another report from Monday was on a Coakley rally at a middle school gym. They used partitions to close off 3/4 of the seating area, and didn't fill what they had left. Of course, some of those middle school gyms are pretty darn big . . .
This is f-ing Massachusetts! Let 'em blame Coakley all they want - she does suck as a candidate and as a human being and deserves nothing but scorn. But remember after the primary, a group of Democratic insiders asked Rep. Capuano if he had learned anything from his statewide campaign. "Yeah," he replied, "You're screwed." This was before any of Coakley's gaffes, before her record was examined (the Dems didn't lay a glove on her), so it's more than her repugnant personality and complete lack of decency.
If it's this way in the Bay State, what will it be like in Pennsylvania, Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado?
Heheheheh . . .
Posted by: Adjoran at January 18, 2010 11:56 PM (jmoP/)
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Posted by: ford at January 18, 2010 10:05 AM (Ki7fm)