1
I should mention that the unemployment rate comes out tomorrow morning. I'll try to get it up with 15-20 minutes of its release (8:30 am EST). The unemployment rate will not show much indication of recovery, though.

2 "Grass shoots"? What about me?

3
Oops. I'll fix "grass" and Nancy's gavel-grabbing.

4 The November elections will probably result in gridlock at worst and a favorable business environment at best.

Unless we lose a couple of key elections and the Lame Duck session goes full Kamikaze.

The thing is, I don't think the Jobs picture ever had to be as bad as it is.  The Bail-Outs, TARP, ARRA, then screwing with bankruptcy law (Chrysler, GM) is what send business scurrying to layoffs more quickly than would otherwise have been necessary, and then, as you say, uncertainty prevented them from hiring again, even when they saw they were not in any immediate danger.

5 Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosisince January 4, 2007
Does his mean the first year she didn't grab the gavel ?

6 I also think there will be an explosion of business activity after the Dems are chased out of DC in November. Let's hope the GOP doesn't blow it. No business as usual! Repeal and replace!

It's our last chance.

7
Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosisince January 4, 2007
Does his mean the first year she didn't grab the gavel ?

Dude, I already said that I'd fix it. And I did.

8 Even if true, the spin will be the Democrats bemoaning their utter destruction in the November election, saying "look, our policies were finally kicking in just when you kicked us out"--and they might actually BELIEVE that, which will just reinforce their opinion that the filthy, stupid, unwashed masses are truly that.  They'll take credit for any improvement, even if it is actually due to anticipation of the red wave of 2010.

9 On the dark lining to this silver cloud, however, this exactly what people are talking about when they mention fears Obama will get a second term.

We need to keep reminding our neighbors: a) that any recovery is directly related to the Republican/Tea Party pro-business policies and b) a second Barry term will do nothing to help move us back to the stable political-social-economic foundation we need to make real progress fixing the systemic issues that caused the meltdown in the first place.

10

I predict the economy will closely parallel ObamaCare:

Obamacare firesale: Three Catholic hospitals for sale in Pennsylvania

Mercy Hospital in Scranton is up for sale.

Those who run the place and all other Mercy facilities in our area said Wednesday they are already in talks with organizations interested in buying.

Mercy Health Partners hopes to have a buyer by the end of the year.

Officials said there are numerous reasons for the sale. One big one is the heath care reform bill signed into law this year.

[ . . . ]

"Actually we're doing well. We're ahead of budget for the year. It's more that when we look out over the landscape of health care over the next five years and the needs of these facilities, the needs of this community, we understand a different level of investment will be needed than what we can do on our own," Cook said.

They said much of that required investment is the result of the health care reform bill passed in Washington.

The CEO said it means the need for more spending and less federal reimbursements.

"Health care reform is absolutely playing a role. Was it the precipitating factor in this decision? No, but was it a factor in our planning over the next five years? Absolutely," Cook added.
-------

There's nothing like closing hospitals to improve health care.

11 I'm starting to believe that Santa will be bringing us the Tickle-Me Recovery Doll that we've always wanted.

Posted by: Geoff at 10:49 AM

Don't Worry, My Pretties! 

We at the EPA will soon put a stop to that with Carbon Hysteria, and Your Little Dog Toto, too!

12 At some point, you can only lay off everyone that works for you.  But I would wait for the upwardly revised numbers next week.

My guess is that there won't be much change in the unemployment numbers tomorrow, as it will be adjusted for the economic circumstance known as "election".  Yes, I believe they do this, so sue me.

13 Trillion trumps, folks. 5% unemployment is great, but the storm is still coming.

14 I'm starting to believe that Santa will be bringing us the Tickle-Me Recovery Doll that we've always wanted. But is it inflatable? Ben Bernanke wants to know.

15 Should have read "Best case - gridlock". Gridlock is good Whenever Congress passes a law, someone loses a liberty.

16

If I remember from my Six Sigma, 4 data points out of 5 in the same direction indicates a trend, that something changed in the process.

How about the winding down of Porkulus?

However, I think the trend will start going back up once the 20% to 30% increase in insurance costs works its way through the private sector.

 

17 abc, I no longer care what the Dems believe, nor what you (ABC & other alphabet news not you the actual poster) say. Hopefully lots of former independents are with me.

18 There's math on the blog!  Help!  Help! 

Seriously, though, thank you Geoff for all the work you do on this.  It's incredibly helpful to an economic naif such as myself.

19 However, I think the trend will start going back up once the 20% to 30% increase in insurance costs works its way through the private sector. Plus, B. Hussein "I won't raise your taxes one dime" Obastard will make sure your tax rates rise in January. Because it's Bush's fault.

20 @15 - I don't think it does.  Can you truly conceive 1,000,000,000,000 even as an abstract number?  Can you truly conceive that number of dollars?

I think most people will see employment back on the rise, businesses' bottom lines getting better, and (if Republicans are successful) a significant lack of a tax increase, and they'll think, "Great days are here again!" and will immediately disengage.

The truly motivate will stay motivated, but I think there are a lot of people who are only motivated because they have been directly affected by the recession (lost job, lost house, whatever) and when things look up, they'll completely forget debt and deficits.

I hope I'm wrong, but usually my cynicism is only disappointing in that I haven't been cynical enough...

21 I can hardly contain my excitement. The 99 weekers are all being exhausted and dribbling off the chart. Not to mention after 22 upward revisions in the last 23 weeks, forgive me if I don't get excited about BLS numbers tomorrow. I'm just going to add 5000 more in anticipation of the next BLS revision.

I think it may be as simple as harvest time and X Mas season hiring.

22 Plus, B. Hussein "I won't raise your taxes one dime" Obastard will make sure your tax rates rise in January. Because it's Bush's fault.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 07, 2010 11:06 AM (AZGON)

Hell yeah, that too! Also has the annual AMT fix been passed? 

23
Hitting bottom doesn't matter, ;">the Fed is already floating trial balloons about letting inflation kick in to high gear.  Whatever 'gains' are made will be washed away by $10 loaves of bread.

24
I think it may be as simple as harvest time and X Mas season hiring.

These are seasonally adjusted numbers, so that is supposedly already factored in.

25 Don't forget this gorilla sitting in the room >>> oil prices.

I really really do want the economy to get better, go gangbusters in fact, don't care who gets the credit, my pessimism just overwhelms at this point.

26
Hell yeah, that too! Also has the annual AMT fix been passed?

Not at all.

27 How you guys doin'?

28 Pretty good, thanks.

29 Don't mind us, we're just foreclosing next year.

30 Thanks Geoff. I'm like Guy at this point. Between mortgage gate, a shadow inventory of 7 million homes, a 14 trillion debt and the talk of adding another  cool trill via more QE- I 'm not sure I can get beyond my pessimism either.

31
Suck it, biatches.

32 We are just glad there are no PinkTriangles in the Poat....

33 I think it's more likely businesses are simply running out of people to lay off, Geoff.

A climate has been created (by the Osama Obama regime) in which many companies can be "profitable" without producing anything at all. Why hire people when you can shuffle paper and pay fat bonuses to the execs?

That's unsustainable, but it is working now, and too many business people don't look beyond today's "income."

Layoffs will begin to increase when the pace of TARP-funded corporate buyouts and mergers gets into high gear.

34 Obamacare firesale: Three Catholic hospitals for sale in Pennsylvania

Who would want nasty Catholics involved in healthcare, anyway?  Soon our army of flying monkeys will swoop down and close ALL their hospitals down!

35

Make no mistake, The Vapid One© and Nancy Pestilence will start crowing about how their policies are the cause of employment improving, just you watch.

We'll be there to remind everyone just how bad things were on their watch. We can't let them get away with their bullshit under any circumstances.

36

Of course, when today's number gets revised upward your trend disappears.

37 16 I'm starting to believe that Santa will be bringing us the Tickle-Me Recovery Doll that we've always wanted.


But is it inflatable? Ben Bernanke wants to know.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 07, 2010 11:03 AM (AZGON)

Yes, it is.  There is an inflation device located right below the belt line - you  pull out a long tube and blow into it.

38 While I think things will get somewhat better in terms of hiring after November (when the GOP has a better chance of blocking the radical leftist ideas of Reid/Pelosi/Obama) I do not see things getting better any time soon. That gigantic deficit and the vast amount of money pumped into the economy will come to bite us, and the states are only barely scraping by because of the stimulus money sent to them to help them ignore needed cuts and changes in their budget. That's gonna run out. When it does, the real problems will start.

39 Hey, me too!

40 Gridlock has been baked into the pie for the past 3 months. A "favorable" business climate may be starting to get baked in starting about 2 weeks ago. I think what you are seeing is companies that are holding on to their employees based on this as well as the reluctance of many owners to sack people just before the holiday season. The latter is a bit early but I think that employers are getting darn sick of seeing their workforce demoralized buy getting consistently smaller. That is this employer's view anyway. I'm sick of peeling off employees and as it gets harder for people find new jobs and closer to the holidays emotion wins over reason. If the tax hikes go into effect on Jan 1, there are going to be considerably fewer heads around here.

41 Geoff - did they play any games with the workforce; like not adding in this year's college grads or drop the "summer employment" a month early.

42 #37 - It was inevitable that the Mercy be sold once the unions got their claws into it. 

43 recession is when your neighbor loses his job.  depression is when I lose my job.  Recovery is when I win the Lotto.

44 The REAL economic downturn starts after the end of this year, when the Bush tax cuts expire and all the profits companies have been pushing into this year to avoid the higher coming taxes dry up.  Then... it's Off the Cliff We Go!

45

Weekly initial claims don't really mean anything, unless you are also creating jobs.

At current LEGAL immigration levels, we allow approx. 800K new folks into the country every month... so unless you are creating at least 400K new jobs, you won't even make up the amount needed for immigrants.

Government is both touting unimportant numbers, and cooking the books, to make unemployment look better than it is.

Its amusing when we have more people, looking for less jobs than a few months ago, yet the unemployment number does not seem to rise????

Its like the inflation number... they tell me there is no inflation, yet everything I buy seems to be going up in price??

Makes ya go... hmmmmm....

46
It was inevitable that the Mercy be sold once the unions got their claws into it. 

Where are all the libs on The Office going to go for ER care now?

47 A cliff? Weeeeeeeeeeeeee!

48 If you're a bookkeeper, smile. Provided my understanding is correct, part of Hellcare demands you issue a 1099 to EVERYONE from whom you buy a good or service or employ to the tune of more than $600 per year, if you file a Schedule C and declare it as an expense. So, if you are a one man business and spend more than $600 per year on gasoline to power your vehicle, you issue a 1099 to Exxon, I suppose. Or you better keep track of how much you spend at each gas station. Each misfiled form or failure to file carries a tax penalty. If you buy a $600 computer for your business form Bob's Online PCs, and nothing else from Bob, you file a 1099 and send a copy to Bob. Same for every single fucking thing you spend on your business. You might spend a whole week just figuring whom should get a 1099 and then another week obtaining taxpayer IDs for Bob, Exxon and everyone else. I can't believe there isn't a greater uproar about this.

49 You know I gotta tell ya, it's difficult being me, especially when I'm on the top of my game.

Now tickle me.

50
I can't believe there isn't a greater uproar about this.

Not enough people (say, 52%?) understand how f*cked up this is going to make life in general, for EVERYONE.   Too busy watching Idol and Glee.

51

Its like the inflation number... they tell me there is no inflation, yet everything I buy seems to be going up in price??

Everything, and I mean everything at the grocery store is nearly double the price from three years ago when gas prices spiked. Now gas is starting it's upward climb and there seems to be nothing that George Soros can do to change that. I've smelled his foul stench ever since I was brought aboard and suspected that he was manipulating markets to keep us off our guard. He has a record of doing that sort of thing in other countries.

That rat bastard is the anti-Christ.

52 Unemployment will be over 9% for all of 2011. That should help Obama out lol.

53 Hey! Here's an idea! Since government is so interested in our businesses, why not let the government manage them? Not haphazardly, but with the concentrated effort and skill the government brings to every enterprise it undertakes.

This has worked so well for GM that I don't understand why nobody's thought of this before!

54
It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few months.

I admire that stiff upper lip attitude, Sir.  But 'interesting' isn't a term I would use.

55
Of course, when today's number gets revised upward your trend disappears.

Nope. They all get revised upwards. Next week's will be under-estimated and this week's will be revised upward. It pretty much all cancels out.

56 I can't believe there isn't a greater uproar about this.

I know that was supposed to be fixed but then that seems to have gone by the wayside. 

57 Honestly, this asinine 1099 requirement will literally raise the number of issued documents an order of magnitude or possibly two. If you normally buy from dozens of vendors, including everyone and everything from the power company to Staples to the local gas station, you will go from sending maybe a dozen 1099s to hundreds, overnight. And if you're selling to hundreds of clients? Prepare to be deluged with boxcars of 1099 envelopes arriving in early January of every year from now to eternity.

58
Terry Gilliam was right with Brazil.  We won't be going to camps, we'll be deluged with paperwork by a faceless bureaucracy until we surrender.

59 I'm starting to believe that Santa will be bringing us the Tickle-Me Recovery Doll that we've always wanted.

I hope it's this one as featured on Saturday Night Live !!

http://tinyurl.com/23m3m7m

Make sure and click on the gifs. These are OK, some other stuff on the site may be (NSFW)

60 I can't believe there isn't a greater uproar about this. I know that was supposed to be fixed but then that seems to have gone by the wayside. Sort of like "fixing" that minor issue about everyone's tax rates spiking in January. It sort of went off the Congress's radar. After all, it's only a few percent, right?

61 FOR YOUR THURSDAY AMUSEMENT:  A LETTER TO THE EDITOR IN THIS MORNING'S FISH WRAP:

OBAMA:  GIVE HIM A CHANCE

The president is working on a system to circumvent future economic catastrophies.  It's going to be a dynamic change once he turns the economy around.

He is shining light on shadowy financial dealings and improving our educational system in an attempt to catch up with other nations that have passed America.  There's an old saying, "You have to creep before you crawl, crawl before you walk, walk before you run," that's true in turning around our economy.

Remember, you must go through the crucifixtion before you get to the resurrection.  President Obama has been in office just one and a half years.  Judge him in 2012 and he will pass with flying colors.  It will be like watching a space shuttle glide through a clear morning sky to a flawless and suitable end to an incredible mission.

Leroy Porter
Savannah

Lord help me.  This jackass lives in my town.  Wonder if the 'tard in funemployed?

62 Obama Inc turns General Motors FastLane into a social media pussy blog.

...takes a deep look at the kinds of positive changes occurring as a result of social networking platforms and tools, and explores the lessons that companies, media outlets, community organizations and non-profits, political groups and even celebrities can take from one another as we all work to find ways to use these tools.

63 Just read last night that the median tax increase because Barry wants to let the rates rise, will be 3.3% What's the big deal? It's not like if you make 40K per year you'll miss $1200 out of your bank account. A mere trifle.

64 Well I'm still pessimistic as far as the "general consumer" goes - did you ever get really really busy with something (new baby, new job, new college) and just run yourself ragged, no time to think, barely time to eat? just going going going? then, you get maybe a small break to catch your breath . . . and your head starts splitting and your throat starts killing you and you get really sick. Actually you were sick the whole time but didn't let yourself stop to realize it. I think we're about to "relax" enough to realize just how "sick" we really are. The Denial has been going for a few years now, everyone is getting really tired. They have been hanging on, hopefully for some kind of recovery, when all they're going to get is "The New Normal." When they all start to realize this, it's going to truly suck.

65
I should say that I agree that all of the negative economic indicators are both negative and important. This is why I have ignored all the "green shoots" nonsense from the administration to date. Back when the administration was touting the success of the recovery, I was the first blogger I know of to point out that the claims data showed that the recovery had completely stalled.

This time I think the claims data is showing a little promise. But it'll need to pick up the recovery pace quite a bit to do us any good. Right now it would take 3 years to get us back on track.

But I do think it'll pick up.

66 I can't believe there isn't a greater uproar about this. Those 1099 are for the next shoe to drop - a VAT.

67

It will be like watching a space shuttle glide through a clear morning sky to a flawless and suitable end to an incredible mission.

Is that a sick sarcastic Challenger reference?

68

We are just glad there are no PinkTriangles in the Poat....

Good grief...  Take your funnytalk back to the HotSausages!

69 dagny, I think the idiot has forgotten that his Dear Leader has turned NASA into a Muslim outreach program.

70
That letter is funny and this morning on the local regressive talk radio station, the host played "Don't Stop Thinking About Tomorrow."

I know you all know I keep bringing up that song. But they're actually using it to try to rally their side and to keep the Democrats from abandoning Obama.

71 Jane D'oh - $10 he is a SCAD professor or professional student.

72 The VAT is the MOAT... Mother Of All Taxes. If that happens we're literally finished. There is no going back, and we will become Western Europe, without the nice architecture and smelly French. Once the gubmint gets its claws in that deep there is no reversal of its size.

73

The trend is just noise, unfortunately.  What's coming can't help but turn everything worse.   Take note of your liberal neighbors and what they have.  You can take it from them when the apocolypse comes.

Liberals are survival food.

 

74 ANGLE 50% REID 46% RASMUSSEN ROSSI 48% MURRAY 41% AAF

75 Jean, you're probably right.  Sigh.

76 Um....these are initial claims. People who roll off the end of their benefits can't do "initial claims".

These are the newly unemployed.

77
Notice how Obama never goes into detail about how exactly he "pulled the economy back from the brink" of depression?

That's because Obama did nothing except allow Bernanke to continue doing what he was doing while Bush was in office.

78

Like to see these figures as a percentage of the employed.

1000 is 1% of 100,000, and 2% of 50,000.

79 There's still Obama and his politburo of czars. They and their regulations can and will still do damage unless Congress steps in very proactively to explicitly stop them.

Whatever green shoots, President Round-Up is still farming the land. Business still won't start being productive until Obama and the Progressives are way the hell away from DC and the Marxist infrastructure purged. Gridlock, while improved, still isn't enough to restore the nation.

I'm optimistic about November, but the GOP will have to show a conservative streak it hasn't shown since I've been alive. The entire New Deal needs to be reconsidered and yanked out of our system.

80

But I do think it'll pick up.

So do I, but it will be as a result of the incumbents being tossed out in this and the next couple of election cycles. Thank goodness negative cycles don't last forever. This one, will be particularly hard to shake since it's the current policies of this administration that are prolonging the downturn.

Another reason that it will take longer to resolve is the fact that it was engineered by bad law, namely the CRA. We absolutely, positively have to repeal that law and return mortgage lending to some semblance of fiscal sanity. I'm all for everyone owning their own home, but only in the right way, with a booming, diverse economy, not being forced by threat of penalty of law to lend to those who previously couldn't qualify for a loan.

81 suitable end to an incredible mission.

Like cut all funding and dump 800 specialists on the street?

82 Remember, you must go through the crucifixtion before you get to the resurrection.  President Obama has been in office just one and a half years.  Judge him in 2012 and he will pass with flying colors.  It will be like watching a space shuttle glide through a clear morning sky to a flawless and suitable end to an incredible mission.

Leroy Porter
Savannah

Are we all feeling Crucified yet?

83 They are going to release slappy happy job and economic numbers from here til the election, then issue a "correction" in December.

So, no recovery for Christmas. Just pony shit.

84 I think, at some point, you've got enough jobs in this country.

85 Be sure to look at Gallup's unemployment numbers: http://www.gallup.com/poll/143426/Gallup-Finds-Unemployment-September.aspx

86 Unemployment is actually 10.1, the government is coving up the actual number. See drudge for more info.

87 BTW: Gallup says unemploymnet rose above 10% in September.
http://bit.ly/8YyuUH

88 Jinx!

89 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=acb15JsCGSk

90 To all the Leroy Porters in the world:  Thanks a pants load for getting Presnit Toonces McJugears elected.  Now do all the thinking people a favor and stay home November 2 and 2012.  Idiots.

91 Related, contradictory headline seen over at HotAir:

Gallup: Unemployment rate back over 10%

In yet another harbinger of tomorrowÂ’s official jobless report, Gallup shows a sharp increase in unemployment for September, pushing their estimate of joblessness to 10.1%. The pollster also warns that tomorrowÂ’s figure will miss some of the change, which will likely lull some into a sense that no action is needed ...

92 I think somebody owes me some coke.

93
The Gallup numbers are not seasonally adjusted, and they don't go back a full year so you can't compare them to 2009. That's not very useful.

94 A drop in claims usually means that folks have run out of benefits and/or have given up trying to find a job.

95

Are we all feeling crucified yet?

Hmm, now that you mention it, my palms and my feet are bleeding. And why does my side hurt?

96

Everything, and I mean everything at the grocery store is nearly double the price from three years ago

Also worth noting - the packages are getting smaller.  Boxes are getting thinner so that they "look" the same in height and width when they're on the shelf, but you're only getting 11.4oz of something whereas before you were getting 14oz.  Cans are getting a little shorter.  Loaves of bread are getting a little smaller.

The only things that can't be tinkered with are the ones that really show the price change, like produce, gallons of milk and OJ, and dozens of eggs.  OJ is the big eye-opener for me.  In my area, five years ago, a gallon of Minute Maid OJ was around $4.  Now it's usually around $7.50.

What sort of special math grocery stores use to price milk is beyond me.  Just the other week, a gallon of milk was cheaper than a half-gallon.  Not just on a per-ounce basis, but literally it was somewhere around $2.50 for a half-gallon, and $2 for a gallon.  I assumed they were simply selling gallons at whatever price it took to stay competitive with the WalMart up the street, logic be damned.

97
A drop in claims usually means that folks have run out of benefits and/or have given up trying to find a job.

No, a drop in initial claims usually means that fewer people who had coverage have lost their jobs.

98 and we will become Western Europe, without the nice architecture and smelly French.

I've been semi-seriously considering moving to Bavaria (except I have no idea what kind of work I could do there...).  If I'm only allowed a meager, micro-managed subsistence, there should be scenery.

99 Except, unemployment jumped up to 10.1%

100
Also worth noting - the packages are getting smaller.

I'll say. Haagen-Daaz swapped out their 16 oz containers for 12 oz containers. Looks kind of the same, and the price didn't drop, so consumers didn't notice.

But mega-consumers like me did.

101

from 4/4/09 until 1/2/10 claims went from 646K to 456K ...  a reduction of 693 per day for the 274 days ...  for the next 274 days we have seen it drop to 445K or a drop of  40 per day for that 274 days period ...

Summer of Revcovery or Slumber of Recovery ?

look at the 4 week average ... 

on 8/21/10 - 488,000

on 10/2/10 - 455,750

a nice drop over a short period but it is starting to flatten out ...

had things kept up at the pace seen from 4/9 until 1/10 we would be under 300K in new claims at this point ...  that is why Obama waited for a good treand to push Health Care ...  he figured that by Nov 10 we'd be back in full job creation swing which would negate the negatives of ObamaCare ...  too smart by half ...

apparently the geniuses in the White House assumed that none of their legisaltion would effect the jobs picture ....

102 How sharper than a Sasquatch's tooth it is To have an ungrateful electorate --King Lightworker, act IV scene 2

103 Has anyone heard an actual explanation for the 1099 issue, for what other purpose could the IRS need the transaction data? Has anyone heard if the business check card and credit card vendor are going to produce an aggregate report and if the Small Business accounting systems have patches to produce the reports?

104 Geoff-- I can't tell if your post is sarcastic or not. What you aren't seeing is the newly arrived jobseekers from other countries combined with the newly unemployed who just turned 18. You have to create, IIRC, over 250,000 jobs a month just to break even. And we are still losing jobs, not creating them. Capital is on strike. There was a very short-term inventory build this summer, but the products didn't sell through. Back to school was horrible. Manufacturers and retailers will be cutting back or discounting. Now firms are looking at third straight Bleak Christmas. You think they're going to go nuts sourcing their gizmos in China just so they can sell them for 75-off in January?

105

I wonder if Rod Serling's "How to Serve Man" cookbook has any good recipes.

I just know liberals are gonna be chewy. Bastards.

106 re: the Gallup numbers: Thanks for the clarification, Geoff!

107 What sort of special math grocery stores use to price milk is beyond me.

I believe the federal dairy subsidies are variable.

Wisconsin has a state law requiring minimum markups on prices; no more cheap milk at the gas station as a loss leader.

108

That's what I like about geoff. He isn't embarrassed to admit he consumes large quantities of a girl's brand of ice cream.

109

Also worth noting - the packages are getting smaller.

I just thought my hand was getting bigger.

110
You have to create, IIRC, over 250,000 jobs a month just to break even. And we are still losing jobs, not creating them.

You have to create 100K - 150K jobs/mo to break even. For most of this year we have been creating jobs, but not a very impressive rate. ADT data for September shows a loss of 39K jobs, but previous months shows gains.

111
That's what I like about geoff. He isn't embarrassed to admit he consumes large quantities of a girl's brand of ice cream.

Oh, that's not the only brand I consume.

112 RCP SENATE CHART- CA moved back to tossup RCP HOUSE CHART UPDATE- DEMS DOWN TO 186, drop of 2 in 12 hours. D 186 TOSSUP 39 R 210 Bigger news- # of safe Dem seats per RCP down to 137 out of current 255 seats.

113 From captainfish's link:
Friday's Unemployment Rate Report Likely to Understate

No shit.

114 They dropped the size on juice from 64oz down to 50 something - but kept the same vertical profile.

115
Obama's presidency will be like an eagle dropping a turd from way up high.

116

Also worth noting - the packages are getting smaller.

Here's another thing: Quality control is slipping. I know, since I inspected things in a former life. Little things like paper plate sticking together and trash bags that are sticky and don't open like they used to.

Again, little things that point to the greater problem of trying to keep one's head above water when money is tight and squeezing out every last drop of profit in any way possible.

117 Leroy Porter
Savannah

I did a quick bing on this guy, he exists and wrote another letter where he used (are you ready?), talking about Bush "the chickens are coming home to roost".

118

Honestly, this asinine 1099 requirement will literally raise the number of issued documents an order of magnitude or possibly two. If you normally buy from dozens of vendors, including everyone and everything from the power company to Staples to the local gas station, you will go from sending maybe a dozen 1099s to hundreds, overnight.

And if you're selling to hundreds of clients? Prepare to be deluged with boxcars of 1099 envelopes arriving in early January of every year from now to eternity.

Unless they make all of this something you can do online, paperless-like, then he's gonna make a LOT of treehuggers angry weep and wail as they sit on the stump of a severed "oak sister."

119 #109  I've been semi-seriously considering moving to Bavaria (except I have no idea what kind of work I could do there...).  If I'm only allowed a meager, micro-managed subsistence, there should be scenery.

Bar wench? 

Speaking of oil prices,

Oil slips after hitting 5-month high above $84

Wait until the Israelis strike Iran's nuclear program, or when Hezbollah/Syria decide that they want the entirety of Lebanon...and then there will be only chaos.

120 Late to the thread but I would guess that the seasonal retail jobs are also influencing this. I see "now hiring" signs at all the shops now. Just the temp holiday jobs.

121 geoff - the fact that such a small change is the only positive news you have to report over a long time frame is in and of it self scary.

122
I also want to mention the extraordinary leadership of Nancy Pelosi. What she has accomplished in the last three years is unsurpassed. Nancy Pelosi is like the Carpathia rescuing the victims of the Titanic.

Leon Porter, Savannah

123 Leroy Porter, Savannah

I'd be willing to bet this genius drives a run-down Subaru covered in Obama and Coexist stickers.

124 Bavaria (except I have no idea what kind of work I could do there...).

Octoberfest girl?  Free beer and you get a well fitting uniform.

125

I'd be willing to bet this genius drives a run-down Subaru Schwinn covered in Obama and Coexist stickers.

FTFY

126 I'll say. Haagen-Daaz swapped out their 16 oz containers for 12 oz containers. Looks kind of the same, and the price didn't drop, so consumers didn't notice.

We patented that marketing process for duping consumers, Haagen-Daaz will be receiving a letter from our IP lawyers.

127
geoff - the fact that such a small change is the only positive news you have to report over a long time frame is in and of it self scary.

Yeah, it's pathetic. But better than nothing.

128 Michelle Malkin - Stealth Bill on Obama's Desk

Both the left and right sides of the blogosphere are buzzing about a bipartisan TARP-style banking bailout bill that somehow reached President ObamaÂ’s desk in the legislative rush before Congress adjourned for the midterm election break.

The bill is HR3808, the “Interstate Recognition of Notarizations Act of 2010,” which requires courts to accept as valid notarized letters made out of state, making it harder to challenge the authenticity of foreclosure and other legal documents.

Hurry up November.

129

advanced numbers are pure BS ...  the prior 8 weeks have all had their advanced number revised UP ...  by an average of 3,875 ...

read the press release ...

"the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, a decrease of 11,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 456,000"

the previous weeks original number was 453,000 ...  a correct press release would have compared advanced to advanced numbers and would have read ...

"the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 445,000, a decrease of 8,000 from the previous week's advanced figure of 453,000"

from 11,000 to 8,000, a 27% difference ...

Can you smell what the Rock is cooking ?

130 129 Unless they make all of this something you can do online, paperless-like, then he's gonna make a LOT of treehuggers angry weep and wail as they sit on the stump of a severed "oak sister."
______________

Loggers need stimulus, too.

131 So, what you're saying is...Obama is awesome and he's making everything better?

132

"That's what I like about geoff. He isn't embarrassed to admit he consumes large quantities of a girl's brand of ice cream.

Oh, that's not the only brand I consume."

He's also a fan of that wierd crap you can get from Central Market that takes a perfectly good flavor and mixes in flowers.  Mint and Rose Sorbet, Orange Lilac, Wisteria Mysteria.

133
advanced numbers are pure BS ...  the prior 8 weeks have all had their advanced number revised UP ...  by an average of 3,875 ...

True, but that's less than a percent.

the previous weeks original number was 453,000 ...  a correct press release would have compared advanced to advanced numbers and would have read ...

I agree - the "improvement" is always magnified by the previous week's correction. Happens almost every week. I was considering doing a post on the bias in the initial estimates, which are overwhelmingly low, but it didn't seem like it was something that everybody didn't already know.

134 Is the raw number of claims really that important - or is it the ratio of new claims to the total number of employed people. If the labor market has shrunk; then total number of new claim eventually has to go down as well. (In addition to seasonal issues.)

135  On the stealth bill looky here....

One of the billÂ’s co-sponsors was none other than big banking buddy GOP Rep. Mike Castle

136

Geoff - good post. 

With longterm unemployment factored in, we are around 22 percent unemployed.

Perhaps the green shoots will become vitory gardens.  

 

 

137 This should stick it to all those bastard rich people!

138 Green shoots or spelt recipes?

139
Is the raw number of claims really that important - or is it the ratio of new claims to the total number of employed people. If the labor market has shrunk; then total number of new claim eventually has to go down as well. (In addition to seasonal issues.)

The shrinkage pretty much stopped many months ago. I'll put up a plot of employment tomorrow - it's been awhile since I've posted one.

140

"Posted by: American Association of Coffee Roasters"

No shit, you glib bastards!

Another tactic is to go all DNC - NEW LOOK!  SAME GREAT PRODUCT!  Not mentioned:  smaller package!

141 We're heading into the holiday season (including Halloween) so how much of this improvement can be traced to some temporary hires in costume shops, and such?

I can't seem to get hired in my field (IT). 

142

Perhaps the green shoots will become vitory gardens.

The green shoots are really just fuzzy mold patches on your smaller slice of pie.

143 No, a drop in initial claims usually means that fewer people who had coverage have lost their jobs.

Ok, so where do they factor in folks who have run out of benefits or stopped filing claims?

144 Ok, so where do they factor in folks who have run out of benefits or stopped filing claims? that dark chasm about which the Government does not speak

145 Rock, or whoever has it. The BSL has an almost perfect track record of only making revisions that show their data was overly optimistic. The best real-time indicator of the economy is Treasury sales tax receipts, adjusted for rate increases. If you look at the daily data, you will see we are still in an economic downturn. The economy is submerged in a giant bathtub called a Depression. The little crystal formations that grow from the floor are called growth by idiots. But until they go above zero (the waterline), we aren't in a growth mode, we are in a continuing Depression with fluctuating and temporary period of spastic activity. You can't put your spending on the credit card and declare yourself wealthy...and that's what we've done.

146

Let's wait for the corrections to come in...after the elections.

 

147
Tomorrow should have an update on the long-term unemployed. 48K people left the unemployment insurance rolls last week - it wasn't specified whether they ran out of benefits or found work.

148 my point is that something stopped the good downward trend in early 2010 and that was the new legislation and until that goes away there is no reason to think we can get back on the job creation train ...   if the parameters don't change why should the trend ?

149 You can't spell recovery with central banks. No really you can't. See you on the other side of the economic apocalypse, if you don't get eaten!!

150
my point is that something stopped the good downward trend in early 2010

Naw - I believe it stopped in mid-November 2009. That's when the data starts deviating from the linear fit. I usually post a chart which shows that breakpoint (I did last month, I think), but I wanted to focus on the recent data this time.

if the parameters don't change why should the trend ?

Well, here's my theory. Business has some pent-up demand that it has failed to let loose due to uncertainty about its future. While it's true that the Dems' new policies are business-unfriendly, and that business won't do as well as it could under those policies, there's still room for signficant improvement in the economic picture.

151

You gotta laugh.  If geoff is right, the unemployment rate inflection will happen right around the time the new Congress is seated.  Then the 'arc of disaster' will correspond almost exactly to the time that the Dems controlled Congress.  Sam and Cokie are going to get whiplash splainin how it doesn't reflect on the Dems at all. 

152

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 07, 2010 12:14 PM (ruu60)

Looks like Obama's going to do the smart thing and veto HR 3808--the White House just issued a press release on it.  I can't imagine the kind of shitstorm that would have ensued if this hadn't been noticed by the blogosphere.

Two things really stood out regarding this bill--1) One of the co-sponsors was none other than Mike Castle, and 2) check this out, from govtrack:

Apr 27, 2010: This bill passed in the House of Representatives by voice vote. A record of each representativeÂ’s position was not kept. Sep 27, 2010: This bill passed in the Senate by Unanimous Consent. A record of each senatorÂ’s position was not kept. Notwithstanding that this isn't the first time this has happened, but I hardly think the lack of accountability is a coincidence here.

153 Damn sock.

154

What about UNDERemployment - the dirty little secret of the Obamaconomy?

See: http://tinyurl.com/24zo9db

155 so, how long is that you have to be off UE before you can apply again? ok, that's sort of sarcastic. Maybe the point has been made and missed it; but once you're off UE bennies, you're off the tally. You can't re-apply until you fulfill the requirements your state has put in place after your bennies run out. So positive trend? not so much.

156 What this country needs is a good 50 years of gridlock in D.C.

157
Maybe the point has been made and missed it; but once you're off UE bennies, you're off the tally.

This is initial claims data we're talking about, not the number receiving payments.

What this country needs is a good 50 years of gridlock in D.C.

Oh yes.

158 I'd be willing to bet this genius drives a run-down Subaru covered in Obama and Coexist stickers.

Posted by: Jane D'oh at October 07, 2010 12:07 PM (UOM4

I swear to God, every time I see one of those stickers on the back of some (probable) atheist's junk car I feel rolling down my window and smacking the driver upside the head.  You gotta love how Liberals love to pretend that Christianity - that just happens to be the foundation stone of modern Western Civilization - is "just one among many other equally valid religions."

159 Conan the Republican = Me, Czech the Cool!

160 CoolCzech, the athiests have their own sticker, which is the word "Fiction" spelled with letters made from similar symbols. I much prefer the "Coexist" because it at least acknowledges that others have valid points of view.

161 Anothe October surprise. By election day the Dow will be at 14,000 and we will have full employment. Yeehaw.