December 02, 2010
— Ace Liberals are shrieking like six year old girls that Republican obstruction of this quickie-treaty is "bad faith" and verges on treason.
This NYT piece digests the arguments of the Republicans (James Baker III, Henry Kissinger) for the treaty, and the arguments of those (Ed Messe, Richard Perle) against it. Both sides claim the mantle of Reagan for their position.
I haven't read about this until now. I find myself agreeing pretty strongly with the Meese/Perle position.
[T]he administration is asking a lame-duck Senate, dominated by a party that was rebuked at the polls by the electorate, to vote for this major arms-control treaty, in contravention of the settled traditions of our country—a tactic Reagan surely would have deplored.Never in U.S. history has a lame-duck Congress voted on a strategic nuclear arms-control treaty with the Soviet Union or Russia. That is why a group of 10 newly elected Republican senators sent a joint letter to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid demanding that they be allowed to perform their constitutionally mandated task of advice and consent on this treaty.
Right out of the gate, this is a major breach. There is no need to rush this through now as opposed to January. It should be noted that Kissinger, Baker, and Schultz specifically say themselves that they are not urging any specific timeframe for approval (i.e., they do not reject the idea that the elected Senate, as opposed to the lame-duck un-elected Senate, should do this).
One of the biggest arguments is over some language in the preamble which nods towards the Russian position on missile defense, stating that while Russia doesn't mind our current ballistic defense system (which is tiny), any expansion of that system might compromise the Russian deterrent.
Proponents of the treaty argue that language in a preamble is not in fact binding; it is informative, a guidance, a statement of principles only, and not actually executable provisions.
That's not really true. In a pinch, courts have been known to use preamble language as legally binding. In one of the most outrageous cases of this, the Nevada Supreme Court overturned a duly-enacted constitutional amendment requiring a 2/3rds majority to raise taxes on the basis that the preamble of the constitution spoke of "promoting the general welfare" or suchlike and that, they said, was enough to make another part of the state constitution unconstitutional.
Judges do crap like this.
So do presidents. And that's the bigger problem. Meese and Perle says that preamble language establishes a "bias" against missile defense if not quite a bar. The suspicion I have (and I think they probably do as well) is that Barack H. Obama will treat that preamble as legally binding, because he wants to limit missile defense anyway, and will use it as political cover for such actions.
"My hand was forced," he will say. "It's in the treaty. What else can I do?" (Similar to how Republicans can use tougher rules about spending to do push politically-difficult cuts.)
I suspect this is a way to back-door a missile-defense limitation that would never fly politically if put to a vote via this supposedly unenforceable preamble language, which, wonder of wonders, will suddenly become quite enforceable when the treaty is approved.
And that kind of crap will cut some ice with the public.
At the very least, this debate needs to be delayed until the real, elected Senate is seated, rather than the voted-out non-Senators there now.
And unless additional concessions can be wrung from Obama on this point -- that he agrees the preamble language is entirely gestural and has no legal or political force at all -- it should be left to sit until he is willing to make such guarantees.
Twelve Flaws in the START Treaty: Another one -- our global strike response program (rapid-rocket conventional-warhead weapons, basically delivering a prompt conventional payload in an hour or so) is counted against our nuclear-arms cap. I guess on the theory it can be used to take out a nuclear missile silo.
I don't know if that's big enough a problem to be a major hurdle (depends on how many of these sorts of weapons we want/need) but at first blush it sounds objectionable. We should be encouraging less-than-nuclear responses, not treating them as if they're nuclear.
Posted by: Ace at
11:06 AM
| Comments (89)
Post contains 729 words, total size 5 kb.
See, we already know that the Democrats are hyper-partisan (even when it will get them unelected: see: BOHICACare). So, unless the Republicans are going to Filibuster a Treaty (yeah, right) it'll pass "Advise and Consent" with 53 just as well as it would with 58.
Unless Treaties require 60- in which case it still doesn't matter, 'Cause we've got our 42.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 02, 2010 11:11 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: 141Driver at December 02, 2010 11:12 AM (/E3ql)
Posted by: joncelli© at December 02, 2010 11:13 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at December 02, 2010 11:13 AM (b75eT)
Sure, we need to sign some more treaties with Putin.
Posted by: Vic at December 02, 2010 11:13 AM (e4sSD)
If this treaty was soo fucking important why was it allowed to expire in Dec 2009?
If this treaty was soo fucking important why didn't Obama get off his ass to meet with the Russian president until April 2010? That's 4 months after it expired.
If this treaty was soo fucking important how did it not recieve attention in the Senate for 8 months after negotiations in April?
Posted by: turtle at December 02, 2010 11:13 AM (lHn6+)
Posted by: Blue Hen at December 02, 2010 11:14 AM (R2fpr)
Posted by: Vic at December 02, 2010 11:14 AM (e4sSD)
Posted by: Holger© at December 02, 2010 11:14 AM (V9Q+f)
Posted by: Derak at December 02, 2010 11:16 AM (CjpKH)
Perhaps a more accurate statement. Sorry for the absolute statement above.
Posted by: Derak at December 02, 2010 11:18 AM (CjpKH)
Between us and Russia, anyway. It's probably best for us if Russia hangs onto it's nukes in case they run afoul of China first. Or suffer something more severe than Beslan.
Posted by: Methos at December 02, 2010 11:19 AM (Ew1k4)
@15 - Then why do they think it'll pass now? Do we have 9 Senators who'll side with Russia on this one? Have that many deluded themselves to think that this limits Russia in any significant way?
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 02, 2010 11:20 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Reagan Reagan Reagan at December 02, 2010 11:21 AM (qV8Rx)
Posted by: ace © at December 02, 2010 11:24 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: cali grump at December 02, 2010 11:27 AM (hL0k8)
Posted by: ingenus at December 02, 2010 11:28 AM (+sBB4)
"At the very least, this debate needs to be delayed until the real, elected Senate is seated, rather than the voted-out non-Senators there now."
Sorry Ace, I don't follow. The Senators that are there, now, were elected. It may have been 6 years ago and they may have just been voted out of office, but they are still Senators until their term is up.
That being said, I agree that the only need to rush something of this magnitude through is because you know it won't get passed next year.
Posted by: keninnorcal at December 02, 2010 11:28 AM (SDc54)
Posted by: nevergiveup at December 02, 2010 11:29 AM (0GFWk)
Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at December 02, 2010 11:33 AM (P3N7K)
This treaty has a stupid preamble, and does nothing to deal with the states that are acquiring weapons, two of which are actively supporting terrorism and two who have fought each other three times within the last 50 years.
If we think that we need to have a treaty for cooperation regarding safeguarding and handling nuclear materials, then do thiat, if something doesn't already exist. What the hell happened to the IEC?
This is yet another cold war hold over. It's funny how the left loved complaining about every aspect of the cold war, and now reveres it. We were told that bold new thinking ws required. And now we have people invoking the corpse of Ronie Raygun, the man they said would lead us into war. Reading about the importance of MAD in a Diocesian newspaper is nothing short of a trip through the looking glass.
Posted by: Blue Hen at December 02, 2010 11:33 AM (R2fpr)
Twelve Flaws of New START That Will Be Difficult to Fix
Posted by: Michelle Obama at December 02, 2010 11:35 AM (9hSKh)
I agree that the inspections are good, but limiting our own fighting prowess to appease a lesser power is silly. Yes, Putin wants to bring Mother Russia back to life, but they just don't have all the same advantages they did during the height of the cold war. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the fragmenting of the old Soviet States, Moscow just doesn't have as much force to bring to bare as they once did.
If we had to have a war now it would be bad, but it wouldn't be the global killer that everyone feared from the 50's to the 90's. Unless one side or the other really did launch nukes- but even with this treaty (or any before it) each nation would have enough warheads to depopulate the civilized world, so this isn't even helping that.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 02, 2010 11:35 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Mary Cloggerstien from Brattleboro, VT at December 02, 2010 11:38 AM (By4wu)
Flaw #4: New START counts conventional “prompt global strike” weapons against the numerical limits imposed on nuclear arms.
Why in Hell are conventional weapons included in a strategic nuclear weapons treaty?
Posted by: Blue Hen at December 02, 2010 11:38 AM (R2fpr)
I don't think we have multi-megaton city killers in our arsenal anymore, though the Russians might. Our improved accuracy made smaller counterforce nukes good enough.
Posted by: toby928™ at December 02, 2010 11:39 AM (S5YRY)
Posted by: Sarah Palin at December 02, 2010 11:39 AM (LLZiU)
Posted by: Mary Cloggerstien from Brattleboro, VT
Agreed. You can start by reducing the cost of maple syrup by 50%.
Posted by: Blue Hen at December 02, 2010 11:39 AM (R2fpr)
Kissinger is a shmuck. And probably an evil shmuck, at that. And Nixon was (and Kissinger is) a republican in the mold of Lincoln Chafee and T. Codington Van Vorhees III.
If he mentions Reagan, then you know he's lying.
But hey, it's Kissinger. If he opens his mouth you know he's lying.
And when he's on the side of Colin Powell, well now you know, gentleman, regardless of what's best or what actually happens, they they'll be drinking only Beefeater martinis at the diplomatic conferance, and dressed sharply too, and isn't that what's REALLY important?
Posted by: Entropy at December 02, 2010 11:40 AM (IsLT6)
Ironic that the Russians are helping several rogue nations (Iran and Venezuela come to mind) acquire nuclear capabilities, da?
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 02, 2010 11:41 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: real joe at December 02, 2010 11:41 AM (IpIBJ)
TiredWench's Ninth Rule of Geopolitics: If Howard Baker is for it, I'm against it.
Posted by: TiredWench at December 02, 2010 11:43 AM (oPceJ)
Posted by: the Gerbil in Richard Gere's Ass at December 02, 2010 11:43 AM (ENYiU)
Posted by: BarryO Bomba, Missilier-in-Chief at December 02, 2010 11:44 AM (rZOYC)
Why are we even discussing this claptrap? START? WTF?
I've said it before: Barack Obama is living in 1983.
Posted by: AmishDude at December 02, 2010 11:45 AM (BvBKY)
Posted by: toby928™ at December 02, 2010 11:46 AM (S5YRY)
That worked good.
We needed Obamacare to keep costs down and to keep our own doctors if we wanted.
Another winnah!
We needed to get rid of the missile shield in Eastern Europe so that Russia wood help us with Iran.
OOPS!
So far rushing things hasn't worked out too well.
Unless your Russian.
Posted by: ontherocks at December 02, 2010 11:48 AM (HBqDo)
We have already neutralized too many warheads, and given away material that we no longer have the power to produce. I should go over that several times: WE CANNOT make this stuff anymore. We are out of that business, and paid billions to get there. We have to get by, for a lifetime, on what we have now.
We just barely have enough Magic Dust left to make a standard arsenal of newer, smaller, safer warheads for "conventional" nuclear warfare, and if we should, in a rare moment of rationality, decide to go ahead with tiny little warheads that can be used in unexpected (by our enemies) new tactics, we are, as we stand right now, short of the stuff that we allow Nork and Iran to turn out at will.
We have got to get "On The Beach" and "The Day After" out of our consciousness, stop feeling deep down that we were the big meanie in the cold war, and start acting like we live under an existential threat from several sources. And put the fucking wings back on the B-52's, in whose shadow we all grew up in peace and confidence.
Either that, or stop talking like a latter-day super power. 'Cuz we ain't.
Posted by: comatus at December 02, 2010 11:50 AM (hrwMe)
( thank you ladies and gentlemen.......thank you very much............ )
plus, the first sentence of your post insults six-year old girls everywhere
Posted by: SantaRosaStan. doing Shecky Green at December 02, 2010 11:51 AM (UqKQV)
Posted by: EC at December 02, 2010 11:51 AM (mAhn3)
Why are we even considering a treaty when Russia is actively helping nations that promote terrorism to acquire nuclear weapons?
Or why is this not an essential part of that treaty?
Posted by: Blue Hen at December 02, 2010 11:52 AM (R2fpr)
Posted by: joncelli© at December 02, 2010 11:52 AM (RD7QR)
Kissinger is a shmuck.
Posted by: Entropy at December 02, 2010 03:40 PM (IsLT6)
Kissinger started out as a protege of Nelson Rockefeller,
NUFF SED.
Posted by: ontherocks at December 02, 2010 11:53 AM (HBqDo)
Posted by: Soona at December 02, 2010 11:53 AM (GdqLE)
Nigeria to charge former U.S. VP Dick Cheney in pipeline bribery case - VOA http://bit.ly/hwZWLS
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 02, 2010 11:54 AM (9hSKh)
You have nailed Obama's agenda. We are one nation among the rest. Nothing special.
Posted by: real joe at December 02, 2010 11:56 AM (IpIBJ)
Sure, because Bush looked into Putie-Put's eyes and saw his soul. And the Russians love their children too...*rolls eyes*.
How about this? In the end, there will be only chaos.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 02, 2010 11:56 AM (9hSKh)
Sure, because Bush looked into Putie-Put's eyes and saw his soul.
Isn't that about the time that people started noticing how quickly W was aging?
Posted by: Soona at December 02, 2010 12:00 PM (GdqLE)
Posted by: Darth Randall at December 02, 2010 12:03 PM (O/onO)
Posted by: liberal loon at December 02, 2010 12:09 PM (BjEuL)
Posted by: Soona at December 02, 2010 03:53 PM (GdqLE)
I have eaten bush with BBQ as well. The self-flossing characteristic lifted the pleasure to a whole 'nother level..
Posted by: Shootin' from the hip Putin at December 02, 2010 12:09 PM (UzjcV)
Yep. And they've been debating it since, er, well, they haven't started to debate it yet.
So, yeah.
Posted by: toby928™ at December 02, 2010 12:13 PM (S5YRY)
Posted by: Gregory of Yardale at December 02, 2010 12:17 PM (PLvLS)
Yep. And since this Senate was only in session 104(2006)-167(2007) days a year, a couple of weeks aren't going to make much difference.
Posted by: toby928™ at December 02, 2010 12:28 PM (S5YRY)
Playing this game as though only the Russians have nuclear weapons and are our only potential nuclear adversary is insane.
Why should the U.S. have a treaty with Russia that limits the ability to be able to answer the threat that China is building?
Posted by: Speller at December 02, 2010 12:31 PM (J74Py)
Posted by: toby928™ at December 02, 2010 12:34 PM (S5YRY)
However.. if the Dems want it bad enough, they should take care of the taxes first.. Boehner is right in putting a hold on everything until taxes are settled. And, as far as that goes, I really don't care if they wanna "compromise" and let the tax cuts expire on some higher income amount like over $1 Million or so..
But they need to get their asses in gear on the tax cuts.. Nuclear treaties that have been sitting around for nearly a year can surely wait.
Posted by: ChiTown-Jerry at December 02, 2010 12:43 PM (f9c2L)
Isn't he the guy they tried to frame the Atlanta Olympics bombing on? Or was that Richard Jewel......I'm so confused.
Posted by: Sponge © at December 02, 2010 12:45 PM (UK9cE)
When it was signed, when it was presented to the Senate and when they commenced the ratification process can be three different times. From what I've read, this is only now being taken up by the Seante. In December. A nuclear weapons treaty, and they're going to give it less time than Obamacare?
Fuck that. Give it to a Senate that doesn't isn't in the 4th quarter with a bench going on waivers.
Posted by: Ace's list at December 02, 2010 12:46 PM (R2fpr)
You're thinking of Richard Pryor.
Posted by: toby928™ at December 02, 2010 12:46 PM (S5YRY)
I'm really surprised that the Senate rules aren't such that just one Senator can delay legislation until after the lame duck session. It's just one of the things I'd come to expect to see in Senate rules.
Posted by: AmishDude at December 02, 2010 12:47 PM (BvBKY)
You're thinking of Richard Pryor.
Posted by: toby928
No, he invented the flame war. Accidentally.
Posted by: totally tasteless at December 02, 2010 12:50 PM (R2fpr)
#38, conventional kinetic-energy ICBM warheads would be counted under this treaty because they're on an ICBM that could then have a nuke warhead re-mated to it.
comatus, I find your ideas fascinating and hope you can find high office at which to employ them. If I had a hoot in hell of being President, you'd be one of the Morons I'd want to employ.
Posted by: SGT Dan at December 02, 2010 12:54 PM (QUuUE)
The basic problem with the START Treaty is that we live in an era of horizontal hyperproliferation. That means nuclear weapons will soon be widespread. When that happens, you don't want to be the only nation stupid enough to reduce your arsenal. Sadly, this new reality almost certainly guarantees many nuclear wars in the not-so-distant future. Korea, for one.
Is there anything on which our super-genius president can't be bumblefucking wrong? Some stupidity is so outrageous and obvious it takes years of education to achieve it.
Posted by: Beagle at December 02, 2010 12:57 PM (sOtz/)
#38, conventional kinetic-energy ICBM warheads would be counted under this treaty because they're on an ICBM that could then have a nuke warhead re-mated to it.
Posted by: SGT Dan
Oh Christ, so we are back to the 70's. Are we counting warheads or launchers. This is what MIRV helped forment. That and the fact that the USSR had to build bigger launchers and warheads because they had a lower chance of getting near the target.
So we continue to screw with the two arsenals that aren't secret, while other nations deploy in secret, at least two of which are being helped by Russia.
Trash this piece of shit. This is for those who want to burnish credentials by being in the room when the latest START treaty was signed. They get to be an entry in Foreign Policy Review.
Posted by: Blue Hen at December 02, 2010 12:58 PM (R2fpr)
Nicest thing said to me all day, sarnt. I appreciate that.
It brings up a thought: Wouldn't our Mr Bolton, whom you can easily foresee as the greatest SecState in history, be wasted in that little oval office?
If it's the only job I can give him, OK I'm in. But I'd like to run a slate, with him in the spot where he could engender the most pants-pissing. With one twitch of the 'stache.
Posted by: comatus at December 02, 2010 01:03 PM (hrwMe)
You're thinking of Richard Pryor.
Posted by: toby928
No, he invented the flame war. Accidentally.
Posted by: totally tasteless at December 02, 2010 04:50 PM (R2fpr)
Heh....Thanks for that. Nice one. Both of you.
Posted by: Sponge © at December 02, 2010 01:13 PM (UK9cE)
Posted by: CoolCzech at December 02, 2010 01:22 PM (tJjm/)
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Posted by: ingenus at December 02, 2010 11:10 AM (+sBB4)