1 One scenario is simply the US and China getting into a beef, and China calling in debt, and the US printing money (the only way to satisfy that debt), and then high inflation or even hyperinflation. Or, the US could simply repudiate the debt and go merrily on its way. After which we become a third world nation.

2

Yea,

bur Warren Buffet says ever thing is coca -cola and there will be no double dip. He may be right since to have a double dip you would have to have stopped dipping.

3 Love the smell of economic doom in the afternoon. Can't wait until we get into the throes of hyperstagflation.

4 As I've said ad infinitum,

In the end, there will be only chaos.

5 On the Obama merchandise: traveling through National Airport on a regular basis, I've seen this as a definable fact. Stores which used to be swamped with the stuff there now can barely merit a shirt rack or two, with actual competing messages displayed.

6 Life is a swirling, sucking eddy of despair....

7 GGGGGGOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thank You

8

Thank Gaia things are so much better than when Adolf Bush was President.

9 I've said it once, I'll say it again: The repaving of New Hampshire Avenue paid for by Porkulus will have its intended effect any day now...and then bam, it's boom city baby!

10 LOL, I linked to that this morning when we were talking about libtards moving South after screwing up their own back yard then start screwing up the South with their same shit.

Soon, they run out of "other people's back yards to screw up".

11 #1  Or, the US could simply repudiate the debt and go merrily on its way. After which we become a third world nation.

Before or after the inevitable war which would ensue?

12 Megan McCain just tweeted that economics is poopy and asks if anyone has seen her Zima.

13 I paid off my vehicle within 16 months of purchase, to eliminate all non-mortgage debt.  Now, I am buying metals, mostly of the lead variety.

14 haha, the moron libs are more like saying, if only the depression era Glass-Steagall act hadn't been repealed because uh, there's no regulation of the market and stuff.

15 China and the US getting into a spat?

BUST A DEAL!  SPIN THE WHEEL!

16 And people said I was a doomsayer and an Eeyore when I said we would be standing in line to buy day old bread and eating dog after Obama was done.

17 pics

18

Obama just didn't have enough power to change the Bush/Cheney disaster in two short years. We should make him Dicktator so this most intelligent and reasonable man can return us to the glory days of America, which was never.

19 Not mentioned: What happens if/when oil spikes again?

How you doin'?

20
O/T

Obama Administration spent $800,000 on program to teach African's how to wash their genitals. 

What the hell?  Barney and his friends would have cock washed for nothing.

21 Since I'm not (yet) a looney, I can't even walk up to random strangers (or an ex-girlfriend to yell in their face for electing this team of economic a-holes ;-(

22 Not mentioned: What happens if/when oil spikes again?

More like "when", given the intentions of the Islamic Axis (Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Turkey).

23 Today, Buffett said all is well -- and he's never wrong. /sarc off

24 the sky is falling

25 more pics

26 yeah, the administration's out of bullets except cutting taxes and cutting regulations and furloughing their useless union thug, public sector employees. that bullet aint never getting fired.

27

One scenario is simply the US and China getting into a beef, and China calling in debt, and the US printing money (the only way to satisfy that debt), and then high inflation or even hyperinflation.

China can't call in it's debt. They bought bonds and they are theirs until they come due or they sell them. If they decided to sell them they would lose as bond prices would tank. They can afford this though and if bond prices tanked and China no longer bought bonds interest would skyrocket.

28 Here's a sign of the times:

County Sues Farmer, Cites Too Many Crops

DEKALB COUNTY, Ga. -- DeKalb County is suing a local farmer for growing too many vegetables, but he said he will fight the charges in the ongoing battle neighbors call “Cabbagegate.”Fig trees, broccoli and cabbages are among the many greens that line the soil on Steve Miller’s more than two acres in Clarkston, who said he has spent fifteen years growing crops to give away and sell at local farmers markets.

29 There's lots of doom out there BTW. Dr. Doom is not alone. Check out:

Mark Faber
Mish Shedlock
Gerald Celente
Chris Martenson
Karl Denninger

and, of course, the doomers over at Zero Hedge.

30 You know, people always talk about China calling in their debt, and how that would destroy the US.

C'mon, think about it.

China and whose army?

If you owe the bank $100K, the bank owns you.

If you owe the bank $100 trillion, you own every bank in the world.

31 yeah, the administration's out of bullets except cutting taxes and cutting regulations and furloughing their useless union thug, public sector employees.

Hell Castro is laying off 500,000 government employees in a country smaller than some of our States.

Why can't we?  Here that 2011 Republican House???

32 and the US printing money (the only way to satisfy that debt), and then high inflation or even hyperinflation.

Oh, yes.  Now recall the new ObamaCare 1099 requirement for reporting goods and service above $600.  If inflation roars out of control, everyone will have to push two wheelbarrows - one for the cash, and the other for the 1099 forms..

Someone else can handle the Obam WH position on punishing taxes for those two-payer families with a combined income over $250,000.  Now you know why socialists hate the idea of indexing income tax schedules to the COL.

33 the sky is falling

Posted by: Chicken Little at September 13, 2010 03:46 PM (wuv1c)

Then I would, uh, stock up on KY, if I were you.

34 Where's the Greek chorus when you need it?

35 "It is true: Today's economic problems are structural, not cyclical," argued New York Times editorial writer David Brooks. hmmm, where have I heard that before?

36
But all signs point to recovery, baby!

37 Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 13, 2010 03:48 PM (9hSKh)

That was the post I did this morning that got us talking about the liberals moving South and screwing it up for everyone.

38 ~/ dies irae, ^{dies irae}, dies irae, _{dies irae} , dies irae /~

39 I don't know how any rational thinking person could believe that Barack Obama is doing a bad job. When I read the NY Times editorial comment section, I see that the smart people agree with me in every way.

40

He will get re-elected for the same reason Clinton did, the republican congress.

the only way he can f*ck this up is if he becomes obstructionist and vetos everything they pass.

that and external events beyond our control, such as a nuke going off in the middle east.

41 I dunno. I keep hearing about China. Why would they do something that would imbalance _them_ so badly? they're not exactly a portrait of stability.

42 No worries! I've got this puppy in D!

43

Economic doomsday? How can that be with the success of Recovery Summer

WASHINGTON – The number of people in the U.S. who are in poverty is on track for a record increase on President Barack Obama's watch, with the ranks of working-age poor approaching 1960s levels that led to the national war on poverty.

Census figures for 2009 — the recession-ravaged first year of the Democrat's presidency — are to be released in the coming week, and demographers expect grim findings.

It's unfortunate timing for Obama and his party just seven weeks before important elections when control of Congress is at stake.

 

Fuck the poor people says AP this is going to really hurt Barry and the Dims

44 21 Since I'm not (yet) a looney, I can't even walk up to random strangers (or an ex-girlfriend to yell in their face for electing this team of economic a-holes ;-(

Posted by: ParisParamus at September 13, 2010 03:45 PM (bN5ZU)

Tempting, though, ain't it?

45 Get me on the AM shows, Larry King, cover of the Journal. Gonna have to do something about this scar. Make sure they only shoot me from my left side.

Take a good look, America. This is what a man looks like who embraces his destiny.

46 >>Only -- this is weird -- the Republican Congress can now save Obama, by letting business know that Hope and Change is dead and it's safe to begin hiring and investing again.


I disagree RINO*. There will still be a lot of uncertainty going forward and the numbers aren't there to undo the damage of Obamacare. Plus, we can't unpass the "stimulus" or repeal the excessive amount of regulation being dictated to us on a daily basis.



*That was a joke by the way.

47 last night had a financial program on and was alarmed to hear them talking about ditching the dollar and moving into a global currency as if this was a good thing for the US>

48 What Republican Congress?

49 I wonder, would it be worse for him to get reelected like Clinton did, riding the Gingrich era; or for him to get reelected like FDR was, riding a populist wave of people happy to eke out an existence as a gov't day laborer? Boy, I can't wait to spend my 50's paying for union thug pensions.

50 I suspect he is right.  WSJ had story today about not to expect a boost in DJA, if GOP takes the House, until next year.

You also have Iran.  WTF is going to happen there?  Any action is going to really fuck up a recovery, which is why The One is voting "present".

Israel does not have that option, they will have to act, and when they do expect oil to go through the fucking roof.

I am not so worried about China, they have their own problems.  But, long run, 5-10 years, they will be THE PROBLEM.  We're disarming and they are arming to the teeth.

Gee, wonder why?

51 robtr, okay, I didn't think I was puttting that accurately, okay, how about "China stops buying the fresh debt which is used to replace maturing debt"?

52 25 more pics

Posted by: curious at September 13, 2010 03:46 PM (p302b)

Of what?

53 Those Obama commemorative plates won't be collector's items then?

How about the action figures?   Sheewwwwttt...

There's always the Alvin Greene stuff, though.

54 34 the sky is falling

Posted by: Chicken Little at September 13, 2010 03:46 PM (wuv1c)

Then I would, uh, stock up on KY, if I were you.

Posted by: Editor at September 13, 2010 03:50 PM (pUfK9)

And artificial anuses, you are gonna need them....

55 <7 GGGGGGOOOOOOOOLLLLLLLLDDDDDDDDD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Thank You Posted by: G. Gordon Liddy at September 13, 2010 03:42 PM (5EqEM) It's been upgraded to GOLD , BITCHEZ !!!! Carry on .

56 Hiiiiiiiiiiiii, Wingnuts!!!...miss me yet?  Doctor Doom?...Doctor Doom???  Aquaman can so take him in a fight -- ANYDAY!!!

57 Posted by: TheQuietMan at September 13, 2010 03:53 PM (1Jaio)

my lib/dem friend explained to me that this won't hurt because "if they are out of their houses they don't have a permanent residence so they can't vote and screw everything up".....

Can that possibly be true?

58 10 LOL, I linked to that this morning when we were talking about libtards moving South after screwing up their own back yard then start screwing up the South with their same shit.

Been to Raleigh-Durham lately?

59 Or, the US could simply repudiate the debt and go merrily on its way. After which we become a third world nation.

Have you been to a WalMart lately?  The DMV?  Any sporting event in Pennsylvania?  We're there.

60 Of what?

Looks like tatas to me.

61 Curious, are those Dr. Doom's "students"? Damn, I knew I should have gone into academia!

62

I was going to write a long post about this a while back, but I got busy with other stuff. Briefly, there are two views of the world among economists (broadly): 1) we're boned; and 2) we're boned, but only for a while. Economists like The Krugman think that America is intrinsically incapable of actually going broke -- mainly because we own the world's reserve currency, and we have the power to print more of that currency whenever we want.

It's not as simple as Keynesianism vs the Austrian School. It's a far more basic question of whether debt *matters* at the national level. Most Democrats seem to think that debt really doesn't matter -- that we can essentially borrow forever with no real reckoning. It boils down, really, to a question of *trust*. We can sell our bonds to foreigners at a negligible interest rate because we're viewed as a very safe risk. However, that view is beginning to crumble -- our ability to borrow money cheaply is becoming more and more perilous.

A difference of as little as a single percentage point in the interest we pay on our debt translates to tens of billions of dollars, remember. And as Greece found it, the transition between "credit-worthy" and "deadbeat" can happen with terrifying speed. We owe more money right now, frankly, than we can ever hope to repay given the slowing economy and the structural changes in our economy and demographic profile. Our lenders -- mainly foreigners -- are beginning to notice.

 

63 the Republican Congress can now save Obama, by letting business know that Hope and Change is dead and it's safe to begin hiring and investing again.

I think business knows, nothing is safe while he sits in the oval office. All Republicans are likely to be able to do is put out the fires. A sinking ship is still unsafe, even if you put out all of the fires.

64 And it's going to be close, isn't it? 2011 is now all but written off. Only -- this is weird -- the Republican Congress can now save Obama, by letting business know that Hope and Change is dead and it's safe to begin hiring and investing again Clinton, in part, was re-elected because of having a R Congress to make him look much more moderate. And the "tantrum" sentiment of 1996 wasn't what it had been in 1994. If the R's actually do what they need to do to right the ship, Obama is going to claim credit, since most people seem to think the legislative power resides in the executive branch. It's far too early to write him off as a 1-termer.

65 Been to Raleigh-Durham lately?

Posted by: Kemp at September 13, 2010 03:56 PM (AQxTm)

We were talking about Atlanta (Dekalb County) but that area it applies just as well. 

And yes, I have been to that area not too long ago.

66 >>>There will still be a lot of uncertainty going forward ... sure, I wasn't saying that was a prediction, just a possibility. I think robtr who's in the thread now is a proponent of this scenario. It doesn't sound crazy to me.

67

Obama is the blood in your stool, symbolic of much bigger problems within.

68 57 last night had a financial program on and was alarmed to hear them talking about ditching the dollar and moving into a global currency

They will have to invent one first.

Posted by: toby928 at September 13, 2010 03:55 PM (S5YRY)

fiat or non-fiat?

69 53 25 more pics

Posted by: curious at September 13, 2010 03:46 PM (p302b)

Who are them?

70 Can that possibly be true?

Posted by: curious at September 13, 2010 03:56 PM (p302b)

Sure, if Americans both don't care about their friends/families, and blithly discount the possibility of it happening to them.

71 my lib/dem friend explained to me that this won't hurt because "if they are out of their houses they don't have a permanent residence so they can't vote and screw everything up".....

Can that possibly be true?

Posted by: curious at September 13, 2010 03:56 PM (p302b)

I'm surprized that they just don't say that it's all George Bush's fault and that Barry inherited the poverty. I'm sure that will be Barry's take on it

72 Much uncertainty awaits.

73 Goolsbees thinking epitomizes the reason why Barry & Co. are going to be ashcanned ASAP. The American people will not buy into the " it is what it is" bullshit when there are clearly paths they won't take for idealogical reasons.

74 finally, clinton got reelected because of third party candidate, squeaky mcsqueakster, whatsis name. The "tantrum" thing is leftist mythmaking when you realize Clinton got below 50%

75

bur Warren Buffet says ever thing is coca -cola and there will be no double dip. He may be right since to have a double dip you would have to have stopped dipping.

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at September 13, 2010 03:40 PM (jrtMR)

If you dip one ball and then the other, is that considered double-dipping, or just one dip?

76 Spock?

He's no Kirk.

77 66 Building Carrier Battle Groups, Air Wings and armored vehicles are good stimulus.

Posted by: WWII at September 13, 2010 03:58 PM (S5YRY)

Provided you use those to level all competitors, of course.

78 38 Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 13, 2010 03:48 PM (9hSKh)

That was the post I did this morning that got us talking about the liberals moving South and screwing it up for everyone.

Posted by: Vic at September 13, 2010 03:52 PM (/jbAw) .

........

you are right. Clarkston is a small town a few miles northeast of Atlanta. I live about 30 miles from there......... it used tobe a nice little town when i would go there from time to time.

79 Building Carrier Battle Groups, Air Wings and armored vehicles are good stimulus. Posted by: WWII at September 13, 2010 03:58 PM (S5YRY) Provided you use those to level all competitors, of course. shit, bitches, there ain't no stimulus like paying for union thugs' no-show job benefits.

80 78

bur Warren Buffet says ever thing is coca -cola and there will be no double dip. He may be right since to have a double dip you would have to have stopped dipping.

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at September 13, 2010 03:40 PM (jrtMR)

If you dip one ball and then the other, is that considered double-dipping, or just one dip?

Posted by: stuiec at September 13, 2010 04:01 PM (7AOgy)

Asked my magic eight-ball, if we will have a double-dip recession - it said "Yes", so I'm going with that.

81

As I've said ad infinitum,

In the end, there will be only chaos.

Heh, O/T, when I was a kid, I used to see "CHAOS" in graffiti under overpasses a lot and on an occasional wall.  But it was always on bridge abutments and the walls of overpasses.  I thought it was someone's name.  I kept wondering who this Mexican dude named "Chaos" was and how he traveled so extensively.  This went on for a couple of years until I asked my parents, "Who is this 'Chaos'?"

82 #64
the structural changes in our economy and demographic profile

I failed to mention that.  The population aging is going to really fuck up a lot of things.  You all are going to miss that tax revenue we baby boomers have been paying for 40 years. 

We're going on the tit, and it's not going to be pretty.

Got my first SS check last month, second one comes Thursday, if I live to be 100, I'll still never see what I put into it.

83

When all the schools have to hire teachers to teach English to the new citizens, we are already too far fucked to turn the tide. Before long, amnesty brings us millions of new citizens, almost every one of them from a socialist country. When the felons gain their right to vote again, they'll just be icing on the cake.

I'm usually not doomsday, but I can see what's going on. Have you been to Los Angeles lately????

84

It's not as simple as Keynesianism vs the Austrian School.  

Posted by: Monty at September 13, 2010 03:58 PM (/0a60)

 

Barry: I uhhhhh...don't know what the term in Austrian is...

85 it used tobe a nice little town when i would go there from time to time.

Posted by: Racefan at September 13, 2010 04:02 PM (Ke061)

I grew up in GA myself. The point was that 50 years ago the idea that a county would put in zoning restrictions that would outlaw growing vegetables on a 2 acre plot would have been considered ludicrous.

86
At least rdbrewer has stopped saying Abilene Paradox.

87 86

Does the guy do anything other than predict economic doomsdays like maybe come up with a plan to avoid it. 

Anyone can fan a fire to make it bigger.  It takes the brave to help put it out.  

Posted by: polynikes at September 13, 2010 04:04 PM (m2CN7)

It's like a hurricane, it's coming ashore and there is no way to avoid it. Just prepare for the storm and ride it out. There ain't no magic left, batten the hatches and get ready for the blow to land.

88 Barry: I uhhhhh...don't know what the term in Austrian is...

I do speak Austrian though.

89 For those who missed this last week . Yes , that's all the money in the world .

90 If we have to have a crash, I want it this October, or October of '12. I want it fucking NAILED TO OBAMA'S FOREHEAD.

91 It all boils down to how much the new congress wants to be liked by the media.

If they want good press, we're screwed to a fare-thee-well.

If they turn out to have principles, then things can turn around.

92

Obama is the blood in your stool, symbolic of much bigger problems within.

Posted by: gator at September 13, 2010 03:58 PM (aOKEC)

Excellent.

93 After Nov 2010 it will be the Republicans fault.

94 How low the mighty have fallen: new Megamind poster - No, You Can't

95 Got my first SS check last month, second one comes Thursday, if I live to be 100, I'll still never see what I put into it.

Posted by: Kemp at September 13, 2010 04:04 PM (AQxTm)

I don't get my first one for 5 more years, if I ever get one which I am beginning to doubt. And no, even if I lived to be a 100 I would never get it all back.

96 >At least rdbrewer has stopped saying Abilene Paradox.


Wasn't Warren Beatty in that?

97 So let me get this straight. A Chinese government official sneezes at the wrong time some analyst interprets it as a trade scuffle between us and China and the global economy collapses? I felt safer during the cold war.

98

I grew up in GA myself. The point was that 50 years ago the idea that a county would put in zoning restrictions that would outlaw growing vegetables on a 2 acre plot would have been considered ludicrous.

Vic, I grew up with vegetables growing in my front yard outside of Warner Robins, GA. Country boy can survive, but the government hates that shit.

99 We need to repeal the entire Obamacare bill to force the veto.  This will insulate the GOP a little bit from the inevitable claims of obstructionism that Obama will use to try to win another term.

100 I think Obama is gonna be re-elected in 2012.  Partly due to Republican gains in Congress, and partly because the GOP will campaign as awfully as they always do.

But the tide is turning against the Democrats.  We need a Reagan in 2016.  It's gonna hurt in the meantime, a lot, but this is America; we'll make it.

101 Speaking of doomsday, why didn't they make a sequel to Dr. Strangelove? I wanted to see what happened next!

102 The point was that 50 years ago the idea that a county would put in zoning restrictions that would outlaw growing vegetables on a 2 acre plot would have been considered ludicrous.

Still lucky where we're at.  I talked to the county last week about a permit to build a pole barn.

"Bring 50 bucks and a promise to put your footers at 48 inches."

When I asked about inspection he said, "Use a tape measure".  Guy was funny as hell.

103

Obama is the blood in your stool, symbolic of much bigger problems within.

Sorta like the crabs living in Paris Hilton's bush?

104 As for Democrats getting the blame if it comes down on Obama's watch, don't count on it.

They are blaming Republicans for the current collapse when the Dems own it ALL, lock stock and barrel.

And the MFM is pushing that meme for all its worth.

105

Not mentioned: What happens if/when oil spikes again?

I start riding my bike to work

This  morning the WSJ reported that house prices are due for another spike down, due to banks releasing more of their foreclosures to the market. I've seen so many bank-owned houses in my area, and I live in middle class suburbia. These houses are listed by REO brokers, the lawn signs are not the usual realty agencies we all know and love. And they are not selling.

I'm on a house hunt, I don't even see the sense in submitting offers anywhere near what the seller wants, since most of them are still hoping for 2007 prices. There is a real estate bloodbath in the making.

106 I don't get my first one for 5 more years, if I ever get one which I am beginning to doubt. And no, even if I lived to be a 100 I would never get it all back.

That's why I took it early, I think they are going to fuck you, but they will have a hard time fucking those of us already on the tit.

107

"And it's going to be close, isn't it? 2011 is now all but written off. Only -- this is weird -- the Republican Congress can now save Obama, by letting business know that Hope and Change is dead and it's safe to begin hiring and investing again."

This is why it's imperative to challenge the Democrats on the idea that the economic collapse was an artifact of the Bush Administration and to make it clear to the American electorate that the collapse was a direct result of the Pelosi-Reid takeover of Congress in 2006.  They need to understand that whatever recovery may happen in the wake of a Republican resurgence in November 2010 will be the work of the Congressional Republicans and will be in spite of Obama, not because of him.

108 Got my first SS check last month, second one comes Thursday, if I live to be 100, I'll still never see what I put into it.

Posted by: Kemp at September 13, 2010 04:04 PM (AQxTm)

I don't get my first one for 5 more years, if I ever get one which I am beginning to doubt. And no, even if I lived to be a 100 I would never get it all back.

I'm 40 and at present retirement wages would get my first in 2037.  The year that the Obama Administration says it will go tits up.

Why the fuck am I paying this much money, again?  This shit has to stop.  Now.

109 Vic, I grew up with vegetables growing in my front yard outside of Warner Robins, GA. Country boy can survive, but the government hates that shit.

LOL, most of my family worked at that base for their entire lives.

110 One of a serious of posts in many threads:

Can we designate a bar in NYC, both for moron meetups, and for conservative-in-NYC commiseration?  There needs to be a refuge in this large, depressing zone of economic and moral stupidity.  The FNC Bar?  Any bar?  Hello????

111
We need a Reagan in 2016.

Way to plan ahead, sandy.

The best part? That 2016 Reagan can be a 29 year old, right now, who was born in 1981...

the year Reagan was inaugerated.

112

a GOP Congress can't save Obama either because Obama will veto anything the throw at him.  There will be no rapid recovery and no matter how much better things are at the start of 2012 there will have been 3 years of pain that Obama gets full credit for and the GOP can run on "take the Veto pen away" ...

 

113 robtr, okay, I didn't think I was puttting that accurately, okay, how about "China stops buying the fresh debt which is used to replace maturing debt"?

Posted by: ace at September 13, 2010 03:54 PM (KUUXH)

Yeah, that's what I think will happen unless we cut the government and get our deficit under control. Like I said though, China can afford to sell it's bonds and watch the price tank if they want to fuck with us.

They have the money and can afford it and it would be cheaper than the cost of a war.

114 When I asked about inspection he said, "Use a tape measure".  Guy was funny as hell.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at September 13, 2010 04:08 PM (5aa4z)

Damn and you're in OH. I couldn't do that here in the County. I would have to have a "code inspection" with the accompanying tax fee.

115 as'pdfjoas'dfk    asopfapoasd;lfkasdfkg]p-   asdkl;fasdfkasdl;fkasdkl;fl;  vbjucvbjioerd   sadfdfgeffdfwewcm,x.vio   oxcipzxcopxcopxzcopxcpocxpov  ;D/ASD,.asd<l:;LXKC      dl;sakf'sdkfpopowe<>?:     sapdofsdopweeopkel;

116
Breaking News:

Sarah Palin just tweeted she has belatedly endorsed Ronald Reagan for the 1976 Republican nomination!

117 There is a real estate bloodbath in the making.

Posted by: kallisto at September 13, 2010 04:10 PM (+FkcS)

I have friends in the Clearwater area and they tell me that $170,000 condos are selling for $40,000 and dropping.

I don't really have any desire to move to Florida but at those prices, why the hell not?

118 how about "China stops buying the fresh debt which is used to replace maturing debt"? because we sure as shit can't stop spending!!!!

119

Posted by: Vic at September 13, 2010 04:05 PM (/jbAw)

i know man. i live in a city a hell of alot smaller than Clarkston. we dont even have One Fucking Red Light. we do have a caution light in front of the firehouse. but its really getting bad here with the crazy rules.

120 After Nov 2010 it will be the Republicans fault.

Posted by: yournamehere at September 13, 2010 04:07 PM (H3X4e)

 

MFM: It's always the Republicans' fault no matter what is really happening or who is in charge.

121 of course we had no problems economically before Obama came on board 19 months ago everybody with any sense knows that.

122 Shit, about an hour late and the wrong post.

123

#79

Thread.winner.

124  least rdbrewer has stopped saying Abilene Paradox.

Wasn't Warren Beatty in that?

Posted by: Dr. Spank at September 13, 2010 04:07 PM (Y81Xa)

Isn't the Abilene Paradox a lot like the Emperor's New Clothes Syndrome?

Or the Igor-Frankenstein Dialogue?

Frankenstein: Werewolf?

Igor: There... wolf.   There... castle.

Frankenstein: Why are you talking that way?

Igor: I thought you wanted to!

Frankenstein: No, I don't want to.

Igor: Suit yourself.  I'm easy.

125 Can we designate a bar in NYC, both for moron meetups, and for conservative-in-NYC commiseration?  There needs to be a refuge in this large, depressing zone of economic and moral stupidity.  The FNC Bar?  Any bar?  Hello????

I'll email me son, he use to room with the head of IT at National Review and there are some bars near there office that has a crew.  Will post if I get an answer, or you just might call over to the Review and ask them were they drink, it's a pretty young crowd.

126
Posted by: beelzebub's burp

STFU, dunce.

127 For a little light reading research Cloward and Piven and how you take over America and turn it into a dictatorship. From CRA 1977 to the Clinton Motor Voter act of 1933 it's all been in play for the last forty years.

And then there is Kagan, and her law review paper "Presidential Administration" Odd title, but you can probably easily figure out what it;s all about.

We are under attack ...

128 "Bush is more akin to a larger-degree version of Johnson and Nixon, both of whom left office with low ratings, rather than Van Buren or Hoover, who presided over collapses into depression. The next president will ride the bulk of wave c to the downside and, if he survives his term, will exit more despised than Bush. Objectively, you should vote for the person you like the least."

I know people hate the Elliot Wave on this blog, but this is what Bob Prechter wrote before the 2008 election. I think Obama will leave office as the most despised POTUS of the modern era. He golfed while the country's economy burned.

129 Posted by: Wm T Sherman at September 13, 2010 03:54 PM (w41GQ)

nouriel and "the babes"

130 Damn and you're in OH. I couldn't do that here in the County. I would have to have a "code inspection" with the accompanying tax fee.

Actually there would have to be an inspection of the electrical service.  Guy said it takes 5 minutes and costs $25.00.  Just to make sure you use the proper wiring (underground) and shit won't burn down.

131 OT:  Fox right now has the Ground Zero Mosque Imam stating that Ground Zero is "not hallowed ground."

What a lovely man.

132

Sometimes I think there really are two Americas, in spite of what John 'the stud' Edwards used to say.

There's the America where most people live, where everything is fine, maybe the road right now is a little bumpy but things will even out soon enough, look at those green shoots along the side of the road, oh maybe we'll hit a double set of potholes and have a double dip but really everythings fine go on back and discuss the pros and cons of the latest celebrity gossip.

Then there's the other America.  The one Dr. Doom and company can see, and when I look up I can see it too.  I thought things would get bad fairly quickly after the 2008 election, but I guess Winston Churchill was right.  There really is a lot of ruin in a country.  The clowns in DC are burning through it but it's taking longer than I thought. 

 

133 and Roubini was saying we had SERIOUS problems back in September of 2008 but i am sure that even though the Dems were the minority party that it must have all been their fault

134

It's not as simple as Keynesianism vs the Austrian School. It's a far more basic question of whether debt *matters* at the national level. Most Democrats seem to think that debt really doesn't matter -- that we can essentially borrow forever with no real reckoning. It boils down, really, to a question of *trust*. We can sell our bonds to foreigners at a negligible interest rate because we're viewed as a very safe risk. However, that view is beginning to crumble -- our ability to borrow money cheaply is becoming more and more perilous.

And the reason for that is the real amount of debt, that is, debt as a % of economy. Uncle Ron and the Reaganauts had record debts in nominal terms, but in real terms, as a % of GNP, they were actually better than the Jimmuh Carturds. Remember when the Dow was below 1000?

What the Obamunists have done is push both nominal *and* real debt into record levels.

135 Sock on from different post.  Dang.

136 of course we had no problems economically before Obama came on board 19 months ago everybody with any sense knows that.

Posted by: beelzebub's burp at September 13, 2010 04:14 PM (I+7Zv)

You're wrong about that. Economic problems actually started when the Democrats took over congress in 2007. When the democrats took over our unemployment rate was at 4.6% and the deficit was $169 Billion. In 4 years of Democrat control they have increased unemployment to 9.6% and the deficit to $1.6 Trillion. As a pot sweetener Democrats also increased the number of Americans in poverty from 13.6% to 15%.

You should give credit where credit is due. Of course Obama was part of the Democrat led congress.

137
Every single line in Young Frankenstein, like The Godfather and Caddyshack, is quotable, important, entertaining, and interesting.

138 Posted by: beelzebub's burp at September 13, 2010 04:14 PM (I+7Zv)

Your Dreamboat Messiah was also part of the Dem-controlled Congress for two years prior to his Miraculous Ascension, you dolt. Guess when everything started to go tits-up?

139 The best part? That 2016 Reagan can be a 29 year old, right now, who was born in 1981...

the year Reagan was inaugerated.

Posted by: AoS Pirate...now with extra-absorbent wings at September 13, 2010 04:11 PM (uFokq)

One of the things that made Reagan Reagan was a lifetime of experience.  I've not been impressed with the recent sub-50 Presidents (Clinton and Obama).

Maybe the next Reagan should be someone who cast his or her first vote for President for Reagan.

140

I'm sickened by the liberals that know better. They realize things are headed in a poor direction for America, and they are happy about it. These people want America to fail, for to them this is a bad place.

They want the rich, evil Republicans to suffer, regardless if it hurts them or not. Talk about voting against your own economic interest, not to mention trafficking in stereotypes.

141 So essentially Roubini is saying exactly the same thing Glenn Beck said a year ago? Wow, that Glenn Beck sure is crazy... The Left have been actively destroying our institutions and economy for over a century. Tea Parties have been around for a few years. Whether our nation lives or dies is based solely on the next few elections. Vote, volunteer, and stock up on beans and bullets in case it all goes to shit.

142 and Roubini was saying we had SERIOUS problems back in September of 2008 but i am sure that even though the Dems were the minority party that it must have all been their fault

Posted by: beelzebub's burp at September 13, 2010 04:17 PM (I+7Zv)

Maybe in the alternative world you seem to live in. In the real world Democrats have been the MAJORITY party since January of 2007.

Is being that as stupid as you are painful? It must be.

143 143 Posted by: beelzebub's burp at September 13, 2010 04:14 PM (I+7Zv)

Your Dreamboat Messiah was also part of the Dem-controlled Congress for two years prior to his Miraculous Ascension, you dolt. Guess when everything started to go tits-up?

Posted by: Waterhouse at September 13, 2010 04:19 PM (z+/2Q)

Also, the little work he did as a Senator for Illinois, he voted for all this spending to keep "companies to big to fail" from failing.

144 A Sino-American war is just a red herring. If we stopped buying Chinese goods their economy would tank in a big hurry, which would lead to untold domestic strife on their end... just what the Communist Party doesn't want.

145

of course we had no problems economically before Obama came on board 19 months ago everybody with any sense knows that.

Because making them many times worse is so much better.

and Roubini was saying we had SERIOUS problems back in September of 2008 but i am sure that even though the Dems were the minority party that it must have all been their fault

2006 Congress elections. Do try to keep up.

Even our trolls have gotten soft.

146 Roubini's a hack. He gets flown around with hookers on the Dem's dime.

147 No, the moron libs are more like saying, if only the depression era Glass-Steagall act hadn't been repealed because uh, there's no regulation of the market and stuff. funny thing is, is they don't make the same argument regarding their increase of the minimum wage. hmmm. when did that go in to effect?

148
and Kennedy was a lousy young president, too.

43? No wonder he was shitting his pants during the missile crisis.

But JFK's 43 was twenty years more mature than Obama's 49 years. At least JFK was a veteran and a war hero. Obama is a frickin college faculty member.

149 Posted by: ErikW at September 13, 2010 04:14 PM (5Hi4I)

and who is buying those condos, in cash, and why?  Those are the questions.

150

Nah.  I'm pretty sure you're wrong.  If memory serves, the is the summer of recovery.  Just a second, I'll check.

*Hey Barry!!!  What the fuck do you mean fore, you incompetent bastard?  Isn't this the summer of recovery?  Thought so.*

Yep.  I was right.  No doom.  Just more of the same awesome shit.  Barry says so.

151

OT: today at school we had a corny diversity thing and we read from some workbook about heroes, the typical stuff like Oprah and MLK JR, well a profile on Obama was on there too, and my God the paragraph's writer might as well have been giving him a bj, he was called humble and a good listener who talks w/ his opponents and compromises with them. I told the diversity teacher straight up the paragraph was a joke

152 150 A Sino-American war is just a red herring. If we stopped buying Chinese goods their economy would tank in a big hurry, which would lead to untold domestic strife on their end... just what the Communist Party doesn't want.

True.  But that wouldn't preclude the possibility of the ChiComs instigating a war against one of our allies (such as Taiwan) to negate said domestic strife. 

153
Imagine if Kennedy didn't steal the 1960 election...

The Democrats *probably* would never have had a Viet Nam as a political issue.

154

Default, Bitches!

Come on. The projected cost of all the entitlements through 2050 is what? $70trillion, on the conservative side.

There ain't that much money in all the world.

Is that an iceberg?

155

and who is buying those condos, in cash, and why?  Those are the questions.

1. Someone who is betting that the bottom has been reached and there is nowhere to go but up

2. Someone who is betting on Obamunist stagflation.

Real estate dropped in the early 1970's too, you know, only to rocket back.

156 Dr. Doom provides great fodder for those of us desiring political change but he's had his 15 minutes.  The U.S economy is improving but it usually takes 18-24 months for the jobs numbers to improve.  Me thinks the negativity is excessive but still kinda fun.  Stocks are undervalued, let's hope they stay that way through the election. 

157

And for more awesomely awesome goodness:

Do you ever wonder why you never hear government workers complaining about high tax rates?

 

“What?  Me worry?”

 

280,000 owe $3.3 Billion.

 

Via Tax Prof.  led there by Instapundit.

 

158

"The US has run out of bullets," Roubini told an economic forum in Italy earlier this month. "Any shock at this point can tip you back into recession."

Implied is that we were coming out of recession.  We are so hooped.

 

This went on for a couple of years until I asked my parents, "Who is this 'Chaos'?"

 

You'd know perfectly well who CHAOS is if it wasn't for the Men from U.N.C.L.E. working in the shadows and keeping us all safe.

159 and who is buying those condos, in cash, and why?  Those are the questions.

Posted by: curious at September 13, 2010 04:22 PM (p302b)

I heard it was the connecticut string pullers. I don't know why they are buying them.

160 That was the correct correction, Ace.  China can just stop buying forcing us to print to pay their bonds off rather than roll them.  At that point, interest rates will rise, and if those get to 5% that is pretty much all taxes collected right there in interest payments and the death/debt spiral spins out of control.  The problem is China knows they have to get paid back sooner rather than later because if they are later, their investment will be inflated away by printing, so as soon as they find alternate investments, we are boned.


There are things that the repubs could do if they have they had majorities, like pass a flat tax and make Odipstick veto it, pass a balance budget and make him veto it.

161

Roubini's a hack. He gets flown around with hookers on the Dem's dime.

I will send my black swans to straighten you up.

162
you mean THRUSH

163

Is "roubini" Italian for "red bini"?

164

Real estate dropped in the early 1970's too, you know, only to rocket back.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 13, 2010 04:25 PM (ujg0T)

Nice bubble that turned into. Let's do it again. What could go wrong?

165

The voters who believe that insurance companies can cover 30 million more people CHEAPER already have full-blown retardedness, and they will never vote conservative. And they breed.

We are fucked with a Garden Weasel™. Anally.

166 Zero hero Chavez has presided over the development of the worst economy in the world. Worse than Greece. This is where Zero intends to take us.

167 That last was so mindbooglingly stupid that I had to go and check hashes to make sure it really was john Ryan and not Ed sockpuppeting.

Posted by: Preach It at September 13, 2010 04:24 PM (S5YRY)

Beelzebub's Burp is Denny Crane.  I recognize the hash (I+7Zv).

168 Fox right now has the Ground Zero Mosque Imam stating that Ground Zero is "not hallowed ground."

What a lovely man.

Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at September 13, 2010 04:17 PM (FkKjr)

I was in New York City on business on Sept. 11, 2001.  I was leaving town that morning as the planes hit, but I came back into Manhattan the following night.

Where I was staying, at the Hilton Midtown at 54th Street, the air had particles of ash blowing up from Ground Zero.  As far as I am concerned, anyplace where the ash from Ground Zero touched is hallowed ground.  Most certainly, a building where one of the hijacked planes' landing gear hit is hallowed ground.

It's funny: there is already a mosque (at least, a Muslim prayer congregation) in the Burlington Coat Factory building.  Nobody called for it to be removed or relocated on the basis that Muslims can't pray at or near Ground Zero.  We just don't want a monument to 9/11 Trutherism and Islamic triumphalism built there.

169 Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 13, 2010 04:25 PM (ujg0T)

People who come here from china and other countries and buy in cash on the "buy real estate tours".  

It's not Americans buying (rumor has it)

170

Nice bubble that turned into. Let's do it again. What could go wrong?

What else are we supposed to do, if the Obamunists are going to wreck the dollar? This is an inflation / stagflation hedge.

171

Ace:  One scenario is simply the US and China getting into a beef, and China calling in debt, and the US printing money (the only way to satisfy that debt),

Ace, this is flat out wrong and needs to be corrrected.  China can't call it's debt anymore than you or I can.

I have EE bonds due in 10 years.  What do you think would happen if I went to the local bank and said I wanted to "call" the debt on those bonds?  You you think I'd get paid?  Hell no.  I'd be laughed out of the bank.

Same with the Chinese.  They can't "call" those government securities.  They have a scheduled payment plan, and if the Chinese government doesn't like it, they can go pound sand. 

They can sell those treasuries, but then they'll only get the market rate.  Which is probably going to mean they sell at a loss.

Seriously, saying they can "call" their debt seems to be totally wrong.

They can call us imperialists and running dogs.  But that's about it.

172

You'd know perfectly well who CHAOS is if it wasn't for the Men from U.N.C.L.E. working in the shadows and keeping us all safe.

Posted by: Speller at September 13, 2010 04:26 PM (qaOKJ)

No, silly, that was THRUSH.  It was Maxwell Smart and Agent 99 keeping KAOS in check.

173 We do sex to you!

174 >>The U.S economy is improving but it usually takes 18-24 months for the jobs numbers to improve. Posted by: Professor Big Boy


The economy is improving? Where?

175

People who come here from china and other countries and buy in cash on the "buy real estate tours".  

It's not Americans buying (rumor has it)

There were rumors of Arabs and Japanese buying in the 1970's. And no doubt many were.

The more things change....

Welcome back Carter, with Eric Holder as Epsteen and Joe Biden as Horshack.

176 I hope none of you think less of me if I decide to burn a big honking stack of Time Magazines... http://tinyurl.com/28ds5ly

177 and who is buying those condos, in cash, and why?  Those are the questions.

Posted by: curious at September 13, 2010 04:22 PM (p302b)

I don't know. I have friends moving there in November to escape the Ohio winters and to be near their kids. In fact, they've been trying to talk me into coming down there because prices are so low.

Is there something I'm missing and should be made aware of?

178

Is being that as stupid as you are painful? It must be.

Posted by: robtr at September 13, 2010 04:20 PM (fwSHf)

Only when he turns his head, and his chin rubs against his hemorrhoids.

179 This is an inflation / stagflation hedge.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 13, 2010 04:31 PM (ujg0T)

Wheat, corn, farmland sound good from where I'm sitting. I'm thinking commodities is the place.

As a nation...austerity. Won't happen, of course. Not by choice anyway.

180

Yeah, but denny crane/sheik yamanni  is really john Ryan.

Naw, John Ryan was earnest in his whining. This Denny Crane guy attempts sarcastic snark, but can't pull it off due to a really lame grasp of what is going on.

181

Hey, Chaos, where you been, vato!? 

182
How does an economy improve without job gains?

And how the heck does an improving economy not gain jobs for 18-24 months?

The two go hand-in-hand: recovering/booming economy & job gains.

Not simultaneously, of course. And not all sectors improve at the same time -- but a true recovering/growing economy will lift all boats.

183

If China decides to do any of these mountain of doom scenarios it's because they have decided to go to war.

Our economy would get trashed but so would the rest of the worlds including theirs. The only way out of that is war.

184
toby is right, it's our old pal troll john Ryan

185

Like maybe people should start working and stuff.  I don't have to work.  Some guy, you know, asked me for some money or something or to just, you know, look at my tatas and I said like yah, go suck it 'cause I gotta go shopping.  You know, those little Chinese people are so cute and totally cool and stuff. 

186

A message from beyond the grave....

"In lieu of flowers the family respectfully asked that donations be sent to the American Cancer Society or to the campaign of who ever is running against President Barack Obama in 2012."

187 We are so boned.

188

Wheat, corn, farmland sound good from where I'm sitting. I'm thinking commodities is the place.

As a nation...austerity. Won't happen, of course. Not by choice anyway.

Is this the same guy who told me:

Nice bubble that turned into. Let's do it again. What could go wrong?

Don't you remember Farm-Aid from the musical yahoos? That was the commodities bubble bursting in the 1980s. See also Oil Stocks and Gold.

Real Estate did a hell of a lot better in the 1980's than commodities, especially in my corner of the world, Cali. Your experience in Texas may vary as a disclaimer.

 The point is, with every inflation hedge, there is a point to get off before it drops.

189 what the china game plan for war, swim over to Kansas? Remember, employment is a lagging indicator. You need rising stock market...i.e., signs of succcess first. And a good regulatory environment. which we don't have.

190
new post raisin bran, kweers

191

I don't know. I have friends moving there in November to escape the Ohio winters and to be near their kids. In fact, they've been trying to talk me into coming down there because prices are so low.

Is there something I'm missing and should be made aware of?

If the condo buildings have a lot of unoccupied units, which is the case in some new construction, the HOA by-laws may require the resident owners to pick up the slack in paying the unoccupied units' condo fees. Also, if a condo development has occupancy problems, the empty units can become a magnet for all kinds of unsavory enterprises. If you're serious about purchasing, get down there to get a first hand look at the housing development and the neighborhood.

192

I'm usually not doomsday, but I can see what's going on. Have you been to Los Angeles lately????

Posted by: gator at September 13, 2010 04:04 PM (aOKEC)

Been there?  I'm in it.  :-P

193 Posted by: ParisParamus at September 13, 2010 04:11 PM (bN5ZU)

Seconded.

194 Only -- this is weird -- the Republican Congress can now save Obama, by letting business know that Hope and Change is dead and it's safe to begin hiring and investing again.

The opposite of what happened to Bush - who[se legacy] was destroyed by the Democrat Congress.

195

Only -- this is weird -- the Republican Congress can now save Obama, by letting business know that Hope and Change is dead and it's safe to begin hiring and investing again.

The GOP may hurt their chances by forcing slightly less harmful domestic policies on Obama, but I believe that, in the end, his moronic foreign policies will come to the GOP's rescue.

196 Been there?  I'm in it

I am Queen's Boulevard Los Angeles!

197

In order for the economy to improve, jobs have to be created in the private sector.  That is not happening under Obama.  The cheerleaders can get out there and rally all they want, they can't create jobs and neither can Obama.

It's like a road runner cartoon, the economy is in a clown car that has just driven off the cliff.  It still has some momentum so it continues going forward.

At some point the coyote will look down and see the bottom of the canyon, and at that point the car will plummet to earth.  Beep-beep!

198

Naw, John Ryan was earnest in his whining. This Denny Crane guy attempts sarcastic snark, but can't pull it off due to a really lame grasp of what is going on.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 13, 2010 04:35 PM (ujg0T)

It's possible that we're dealing with a Multiple Personality Disorder. I'm convinced most libs suffer from some type of mental illness anyway, might as well take a guess on a diagnosis.

199 The point is, with every inflation hedge, there is a point to get off before it drops.

Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 13, 2010 04:38 PM (ujg0T)

With the Ukraine and Russia stopping shipments and Pakistan's harvests destroyed, I'm not thinking it is a bubble yet.

200 I hope none of you think less of me if I decide to burn a big honking stack of Time Magazines...

http://tinyurl.com/28ds5ly

Posted by: Lincolntf at September 13, 2010 04:32 PM (EHI/u)

From the article:

As previously documented by NewsBusters, Time managing editor Richard Stengel bizarrely seemed to see a down side to fewer terrorist attacks against Israelis when he appeared on the Thursday, September 2, Morning Joe on MSNBC, as he suggested that it was a "sad truth" that the low level of recent violence from terrorists -- including the "Hamas folks" -- had made Israelis feel less urgency about negotiating with Palestinians. Stengel:

But, you know, they havenÂ’t had a, they havenÂ’t had a car bombing in two and a half years, and the sad truth really is that the wall with the West Bank has actually worked. I mean, most Israelis in the course of their lives donÂ’tÂ’ come into contact with any Palestinians at all. The wall is functioning. And the Gaza Strip is so small and so isolated they feel that those folks, the Hamas folks, are actually not that big a threat.

Wow, too bad about those Israelis not getting blown to smithereens. I'm all choked up about how the Palestinian genocidaires don't get to make their street-theater political statement with the blood of Jewish babies.

201 Posted by: ErikW at September 13, 2010 04:32 PM (5Hi4I)

read realty track and the banks implode website and anything on zero hedge and dealbreaker and business insider about real estate.  With real estate you need to really educate yourself and it is always about location, location, location.

202

Been there?  I'm in it.  :-P

Have they built a wall surrounding/protecting West LA yet?

203

And it's going to be close, isn't it? 2011 is now all but written off. Only -- this is weird -- the Republican Congress can now save Obama, by letting business know that Hope and Change is dead and it's safe to begin hiring and investing again.

That to me is the most likely scenario. The business guys I deal with are waiting to see what happens in November. There is $2 Trillion on the sidelines right now that is waiting to be spent.

204

At some point the coyote will look down and see the bottom of the canyon, and at that point the car will plummet to earth.  Beep-beep!

Posted by: Boots at September 13, 2010 04:42 PM (06JTY)

Yes, that's the Gravitational Awareness Paradox.  The cartoon character will not fall unless and until he becomes aware that he is suspended in mid-air with no physical support.

Related: the Physics Pun Phenomenon.  The falling cartoon character will be able to stop just short of the ground if he is in a vehicle equipped with air brakes.

205 I was reminded by one of my lib/dem friends today that president bush begged Americans to save.

206

But, you know, they havenÂ’t had a, they havenÂ’t had a car bombing in two and a half years, and the sad truth really is that the wall with the West Bank has actually worked. I mean, most Israelis in the course of their lives donÂ’tÂ’ come into contact with any Palestinians at all. The wall is functioning. And the Gaza Strip is so small and so isolated they feel that those folks, the Hamas folks, are actually not that big a threat.

Will the GOP Congress of 2011 apply this sensibility to our own Mexican border, please?

207 Have they built a wall surrounding/protecting West LA yet?

Posted by: gator at September 13, 2010 04:44 PM (aOKEC)

You think a wall's gonna stop me?

208 86 Does the guy do anything other than predict economic doomsdays like maybe come up with a plan to avoid it.
________________

Well, there's always moving to the Ukraine to farm mildly radioactive earthworms for their yummy, yummy postapocolyptic protein.

209 Posted by: stuiec I was really disgusted by the article. Time Mag (and Stengel in particular) should be shunned by all decent people of all political stripes. Fucking scumbags.

210

Will the GOP Congress of 2011 apply this sensibility to our own Mexican border, please?

Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 13, 2010 04:46 PM (ujg0T)

So far, the car bombs are only going off on the Mexican side.  But I give that about three weeks before it migrates north of the border.

211

154 - Oh no. Not Californication, not in the Keystone State. Is there no refuge from this plague? Is there no mercy? FML.

Alright so I was a little dramatic. Trendy people don't like where I'm looking, it's a somewhat declasse area. But that's just fine with me, as long as I have a little yard and the house has a good foundation. Let me guess where you are - either Wallingford-Swarthmore, or Bucks County around Yardley, or Huntingdon Valley.

(My center city friends tell me the yuppie neighborhoods are attracting transplants from all parts, not just Cali, and those locales are holding their value as well.)

212

Posted by: curious at September 13, 2010 04:43 PM (p302b)

Is Florida not the way to go?

I've had iffy feelings along the lines of "too good to be true."

213 Hannity's guest was saying "we are going to do all we can, working together, to make sure tax hikes don't occur this year"

Notice the language, not "tax hikes don't occur period, ever"...."tax hikes don't occur this year"

This is one of the "young guns" guy speaking

the f****ing republicans are just democrats in more expensive empty suits...

214 and Roubini was saying we had SERIOUS problems back in September of 2008 but i am sure that even though the Dems were the minority party that it must have all been their fault

Posted by: beelzebub's burp at September 13, 2010 04:17 PM (I+7Zv)

Really? In September 2008. That's funny I thought the Dims won control of Congress in the 2006 election. Johnny, even for you that's weak.

215

And it's going to be close, isn't it? 2011 is now all but written off. Only -- this is weird -- the Republican Congress can now save Obama, by letting business know that Hope and Change is dead and it's safe to begin hiring and investing again.

2011-12 as 1995-96. We could even get John McCain to run again as a Bob Dole 2.0--well, nix that idea.....

216 Fucking scumbags.

Posted by: Lincolntf at September 13, 2010 04:46 PM (EHI/u)

The question is, who are TIME and Newsweek written for these days?  And haven't they gotten a slight case of the clues from watching their circulation and ad pages approach the X-axis?

217 At some point the coyote will look down and see the bottom of the canyon, and at that point the car will plummet to earth.  Beep-beep!

That is so true. The only thing keeping us up is our ignorance of how fuzzucked we are. As soon as we realize it collectively.....

_{(Don't look down)}

218

2011-12 as 1995-96. We could even get John McCain to run again as a Bob Dole 2.0--well, nix that idea.....

Posted by: Curmudgeon at September 13, 2010 04:48 PM (ujg0T)

God save and protect us from candidates who get the nomination only because "it's their turn."

219 Does the guy do anything other than predict economic doomsdays like maybe come up with a plan to avoid it.

Simple really.

Balance budget, make a surplus, start paying back debt: Bond market risk neutralized. Chinese economic leverage neutralized.

220

Well, there's always moving to the Ukraine to farm mildly radioactive earthworms for their yummy, yummy postapocolyptic protein.

Posted by: Ed Dames, the *real* Dr. Doom at September 13, 2010 04:46 PM (NmR1a)

Do the radioisotopes collect in the worms' tissues?  Because that could be a good way to clean the soil.

221 Posted by: ErikW at September 13, 2010 04:47 PM (5Hi4I)

I can't answer that question for you.  But, if you read and research, by the time you are done, you will be able to answer that question.  I think Florida has buyer's brokers so you can start by picking their brains.

But, I have a rule, no matter how good, how logical, how great something looks if I have even a single reservation, me personally, if that little voice inside isn't doing the happy dance, I walk away.   Sure, I've lost money but I've also saved myself a lot of heartache too.

I bought more apple stock at what was considered a ridiculous price.  I took so much grief from my friends but I had done my research and I was comfortable, I'm doing the happy dance now and they are saying they are sorry they doubted me lol

222

I've had iffy feelings along the lines of "too good to be true."

 

It's almost like someone bragging about all the good snow-skiing in western Kansas.  Although, I do have to say that not having a state income tax seems attractive from time to time.

223 Balance budget, make a surplus, start paying back debt: Bond market risk neutralized. Chinese economic leverage neutralized.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose at September 13, 2010 04:52 PM (0q2P7)

So, what kind of odds are you giving that will happen?

224

Simple really.

Balance budget, make a surplus, start paying back debt: Bond market risk neutralized. Chinese economic leverage neutralized.

Or even just get real economic growth again and hold the line on spending and debt. Debt as % of GDP drops.

Not as good as what you propose, of course, but more feasible.

225

The question is, who are TIME and Newsweek written for these days?  And haven't they gotten a slight case of the clues from watching their circulation and ad pages approach the X-axis?

Posted by: Snake Plisken at September 13, 2010 04:48 PM (7AOgy)

They're written for Anti-American libs who jerk off to the thought of us Flyover folks getting disappeared. They don't have to worry about profits because they know they'll get bailed out anyway.

Read The Smithsonian sometime and you'll see how incestuous it can get.

226

One thing that could really wreck any recovery though is the States. Obama gave them a bunch of money on two different occasions and just postponed the inevitable cuts in state governments.

We're facing a $5 Billion short fall here in Washington and our Marxist Governor has even finally come to realize that she has to start massively cutting government.

That will mean a bunch of state layoffs and reduced spending by the state. None of which is efficient but it still adds to the economy.

227 The US has run out of bullets
I know what you're thinking. "Did he fire six shots or only five?" Well, to tell you the truth, in all this excitement I kind of lost track myself. But being as this is a .44 Magnum, the most powerful handgun in the world, and would blow your head clean off, you've got to ask yourself one question: Do I feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?

228 135 OT: Fox right now has the Ground Zero Mosque Imam stating that Ground Zero is "not hallowed ground."
_______________

Well, since you mention it...

It's struck me as odd that Imam Rauf insists we have to build the mosque there, because he's afraid that if we don't the Islamists will cause trouble.

That's right, folks. Imam Rauf is an Islamophobe.

229 Simple really.

Balance budget, make a surplus

Of course, reasonably, in order to do that you would have to completely restructure Social Security and Medicare.

So you see, all we have to do is something that while simple, neither party feels is politically advantageous, feasible, or even possible. That's why we're fuzzucked.

230 "we are going to do all we can, working together, to make sure tax hikes don't occur this year"

the f****ing republicans are just democrats in more expensive empty suits...

Come on Curious, this is the year the Bush tax cuts expire, that is why he said this year.  Don't be over zealous.

231 So you see, all we have to do is something that while simple, neither party feels is politically advantageous, feasible, or even possible. That's why we're fuzzucked.

Posted by: MikeTheMoose at September 13, 2010 04:55 PM (0q2P7)

I must agree.

232 AAHHH!  Loose change in the dryer!

233 Posted by: Guy Fawkes at September 13, 2010 04:58 PM (L8kaT)

you know, I used to give them all "the benefit of the doubt" and "I used to make assumptions for them that weren't stated" but not anymore.  I want these damned politicians to say what they mean and mean what they say.  I'm tired of all the games, posturing and "well it's not a lie it's just an exaggeration a little bit"....crap...

234 They are not in power, they can't do anything but put up defenses.

235

Of course, reasonably, in order to do that you would have to completely restructure Social Security and Medicare.

GOP Contract with America 2011:

1. Tax code of 2010 made permanent, with discussions of further targeted tax relief after that.

2. Border Wall

3. Social Security and Medicare age raised to 70.

236 #247

Move to New Jersey. Our governor says what he means and means what he says. It's actually quite a strange experience, but you will get used to it.

237

and who is buying those condos, in cash, and why?  Those are the questions.

It just so happens that BackwardsGirl and I are looking for a condo down here in the House of Mouse. We have to get out from under the rent we're paying and can't afford for much longer. We've been surprised at all the condos we've found under $40K, 2/2 approx110 sq.f. Fees around $300/mo.

Fits us to a T. Granted, there are a few that need a lot of work, but if one looks hard enough, there are good bargains out there.

The downside is, we know that someone is getting screwed, big time. Since we started looking, we've also started paying attention to forclosure rates. We set another record last month, so there will be even more on the market real soon. Whoever sited the figure above of $170K condos going for $40 is just about right.

238 244 Most of Chester County is God's country. I do envy you the location, but definitely not the influx of the blue people. Now I know how downtown West Chester ended up with an olive oil boutique - has to be a Californicator.

239 Check out junk silver values.  These are coins lying around in a sock drawer or a piggy bank.  Here's the value of these coins based on the silver content.

1946-1964 Roosevelt Dime     $1.45
1932-1964 Washington Quarter     $3.64    
1964 Kennedy Half Dollar     $7.28    

Silver is going for over $20 an ounce.  I bought some back at $14 and it's the only investment (besides malted grain for brewing beer) that's has paid off for me in the last few years.

240 252 - I just realized, my house hunt is centered around where the werkin man lives.

241 Careful Backwards Boy, check to see the condo assoc is not behind in payments or your fees could rise significantly.  Don't forget about duplexes or four-plexes while looking around.

242 Posted by: BackwardsBoy at September 13, 2010 05:02 PM (kFODZ)

that's what I meant by location, location, location.

did you know that disney is building a gated community and they are charging $1.6 mil and getting it, I'm told they sold out the first phase.

243 Take this to the bank....Unemployment will be high in 2012 and Obama will poll right at his job approval rating give or take 1 point when people cast their votes. Goldman Sachs has unemployment AVERAGING 10% for ALL of 2011. Think about that for a minute. That means it will be above 8% EASY and could be above 9% in the middle of 2012 when peoples minds will be made up. They are not even factoring in a return to negative GDP for a QTR or two that could happen. This means that any of the people being talked about as the GOP nominee can and will beat Obama barring they are caught on tape killing someone. Why is this important? Well obviously it means we can get rid of Obama which is good, but it also means there is no reason to adopt the "electablity" argument when picking our nominee because Palin, Romney, Gingrich, etc will all beat Obama in 2012 despite the what the media tells you. Even if the economy ROARS back, and it wont, it will not be able to bring down the Unemployment rate to a satisfactory level by 2012. It is too late for that. We made our bed with radical policies and now we live with it. Unemployment is Obama's Iraq/Katrina/ and Iran Hostage Crisis all rolled into one and it WILL be his undoing. So, lets pick a real conservative in 2012, because she will beat him Love this blog!

244 Posted by: BackwardsBoy at September 13, 2010 05:02 PM (kFODZ)

here's the thing, you need a rock solid real estate attorney, a person who specializes in real estate whenever you buy property anywhere.  Even if the broker tells you that in their state you don't need an attorney, yep, you need that attorney.  But, the advice and hand holding of the attorney will be well worth the investment.

245 I do envy you the location, but definitely not the influx of the blue people.
Na'vi, eh? There goes the neighbourhood.

246

Many thanks, Guy Fawkes, will do. I hadn't thought that would be a problem, but now I know to check.

And curious, there are still a busload of folks with money down here, they're just quiet about it. There have been quite a few local startups where the employees bought stock that later skyrocketed. I know one or two. Disney has a real sweetheart deal with Osceola Co. where they have their own private police and fire departments, separate from any local government. And I'll see if anyone I know down here can recommend a good real estate lawyer.

I love the Pudding Patrol. You guys are awesome.

247 Beck is on a tear.....he is an pure unadulterated, unabashed capitalist.....and he wants you to know it....

He likes making money....

He likes donating money.....

He likes our capitalist system......

He's not ashamed of making money......

Yep glenn we all like our capitalist system..

248

You'd know perfectly well who CHAOS is if it wasn't for the Men from U.N.C.L.E. working in the shadows and keeping us all safe.

Posted by: Speller at September 13, 2010 04:26 PM (qaOKJ)

No, silly, that was THRUSH.  It was Maxwell Smart and Agent 99 keeping KAOS in check.

Posted by: stuiec at September 13, 2010 04:32 PM (7AOgy)

Open Channel D

249

@259: "here's the thing, you need a rock solid real estate attorney, a person who specializes in real estate whenever you buy property anywhere.  Even if the broker tells you that in their state you don't need an attorney, yep, you need that attorney.  But, the advice and hand holding of the attorney will be well worth the investment."

You realize, of course, that AmishDude just declared a jihad on you for that.

250 Na'vi, eh? There goes the neighbourhood.

-andycanuck

More likely Smurfs, unless the Na'vi have jacked a space transport.

251 Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at September 13, 2010 05:20 PM (xy9wk)

Poor Amish Dude seems to have had some pretty bad experiences with attorneys.   But sometimes it is really important to have an honest, solid attorney at your side and buying real estate is one of those times.

252

If I were the President of The United States

I could fix our economy in 5 minutes or LESS

I would simply relax the " Mark to Market" rules

unfotunately no one posting here knows what that means

I can say that because no one seems to know what

PRINTING MONEY means

its an Economics term for " EASING CREDIT"

253

I do envy you the location, but definitely not the influx of the blue people.
Na'vi, eh? There goes the neighbourhood.

I was dragged kicking and screaming to that movie - 2 1/2 hours of my life that I'll never get back. I hope they haven't infested Chester County, but if they have I see a business opportunity: I will open an African braid salon.

254 Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 05:24 PM (jBC6p)

Don't you remember, they said relaxing the mark to market rules is what cause this. 

And then they went on to the shorts

and now they are on the high frequency guys...

and Christina romer told the truth when she basically said "we don't know what happened"    How can you fix something if you can't even figure out what went wrong?

255  would simply relax the " Mark to Market" rules

unfotunately no one posting here knows what that means

I can say that because no one seems to know what

PRINTING MONEY means

its an Economics term for " EASING CREDIT"

Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 05:24 PM (jBC6p)

The Mark to Market rules have not only already been relaxed, they have been eliminated.

There has been some talk of bringing them back but it hasn't gotten very far.

256

Don't you remember, they said relaxing the mark to market rules is what cause this. 

You've got that backwards. They said the Mark to Market rules caused this. That's why they got rid of them.

257 Actually, are there not several meanings to "Printing Money"?  I use that for when the Federal Reserve buys US Securities, borrowing money into existence.

Posted by: toby928 at September 13, 2010 05:33 PM (S5YRY)

The fed buys securities with money they print. They have printed about $2 Trillion since this thing began.

258 I would simply relax the " Mark to Market" rules That would require a functional market pricing mechanism to work, which we don't have right now. The price for a good or security can't be plucked out of thin air -- or, it can, but that doesn't mean it will find a market at that price. The problem with a lot of illiquid assets (esp. those shitty mortgages) is that no one really knows what they're worth: not the people holding them, and not the prospective buyers of those securities. "Mark to market" only works, in other words, when the market works. And right now, given the amount of governmental fuckery going on, the market is operating on a very short-term, day-by-day basis. Cash is king. Illiquid assets are finding buyers hard to find. Oh, you can simply let the government declare what a "fair price" is, but that will do fuck-all to actually establish the fair market price.

259
Mark to market?

That's so 2008.

260 O/T but Lemrick Nelson of Crown Heights Riot infamy, was found with an ice pick in his head this morning, apparently a "road rage" dispute. He is in a coma and intubated. Since I am at work, I can't link to it (Sonicwall won't let me into tinyurl.com) but the NY Post has the article. The comments are what you would expect.

261 "Mark to market" only works, in other words, when the market works. And right now, given the amount of governmental fuckery going on, the market is operating on a very short-term, day-by-day basis. Cash is king. Illiquid assets are finding buyers hard to find.

Oh, you can simply let the government declare what a "fair price" is, but that will do fuck-all to actually establish the fair market price.

Posted by: Monty at September 13, 2010 05:41 PM (/0a60)

I don't agree with you. Mark to Market has very little to do with everyday pricing of mortgage backed securities. What it does is requires the holder of such securities to price all of their like securities at the current market price.

By doing that it forces them to take huge write downs in their assets even if they plan on holding them and they are actually worth more than the latest market price.

When that happens their ability to loan is diminished.

262 The real estate bubble creation and bust was nothing like any of the other "commodity" bubbles that have occurred throughout the history of this country. It was manufactured strictly by the government, both federal and local and it was the responsibility of the Democrats throughout the whole time.  The collapse of the economy due to the collapse of the real estate bubble (which hasn't been completed yet BTW) was a related collapse but for different reasons.

Real estate prices in this country, as a whole, have followed the inflation curve almost verbatim with a few wrinkles here and there for economic cycles up and down changing supply and demand. But those wrinkles were always ironed out in fairly short order.

What changed with real estate and started the initial acceleration was the creation of artificial shortages in certain parts of the country through stupid eco-tard laws that forced the creation of green zones in towns and counties in coastal CA, Las Vegas, NV (through blocking of sale of federal land), NY, AZ, and FL.

These shortages made the price of available real estate in those areas go through the roof, which in turn started speculation and churning. 

Add to that the low interest rates driven by the Fed to offset 9-11 impact and the "stupidly easy lending rules" created by CRA and its associated regulations and you got the onset of the bubble.

Of course the banks could not afford to make all these poor loans with no collateral for CRA so enter F&F and Jamie Goerlich. They pisked up the loans, packaged 5them as non-smelly shit and sold them to investors after they had been perfumed over by insuring some and mixing them with good loans. The "insuring" was the so-called "credit default swaps" you here so much about from IAG.

All of this continued find and dandy as long as the interest rates were low, the prices continued to rise, and people were able to refinance all those stupid loans as the balloon payments became due. And if someone defaulted because they never should have got a loan to begin with, no biggie for the bank/investor, they could sell and maybe even recoup their losses.

All that was fine until the Fed deemed that 9-11 low interest rates were contributing to inflation and started raising rates. The smart money got out immediately. When the rates started rising the ability to turn over the loans was crushed, people defaulted in droves, then the banks started defaulting. When that happened AIG started defaulting as well as the other investment houses that had all this Goerlick paper.

The rest, as they say, is history. And those of you in CA look at the property values and the green space laws. Those laws are still present and property values are still too high along the coast.

And this is not my analysis folks. Mostly it comes from Thomas Sowell.

263 This is why most of my money has been in gold for some time.  Yes it is shockingly risky, but I have no idea what is smart right now.  Well, the smartest thing would probably be to just spend it all right now.

264

Mark to Market is just a dumb rule. Basically it means if you sell a mortgage backed security for ten cents on the dollar I have to value all of mine at ten cents on the dollar whether I want to sell them or not.

Mine could all be very good securities backed by real assetts and yours could have been junk but all of a sudden my assetts are decreased by 90% because you sold yours at that price.

265

If the treasury had PRINTED 2 trillion dollars then hwy hasnt it appeared on the M1 M2 or M3 reports?

When Robert Ruben relaxed Mark to Mrket in 93 to 3 years

that may have started what we are seeing now

but what sealed the fate of what we have now is tightening to "0"

and nobodies touched it ,they just keep talking about it.

266 Bing-fucking-o. It needs to die a painful death.

Posted by: Chris in Va at September 13, 2010 05:59 PM (uCjoj)

I'm almost positive it already has.

267

April 2, 2009

Yet, the rally in financial stocks has gathered some more steam this morning, as the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) voted to relax its now infamous FASB 157 or mark-to-market rule.

In effect, political pressure has trumped transparency. Go figure.

268 "One scenario is simply the US and China getting into a beef, and China calling in debt, and the US printing money (the only way to satisfy that debt), and then high inflation or even hyperinflation." China won't call in the debt. China has its own problems, like an economic bubble that's about to burst, and the last thing they need is a double-dip recession in their biggest trading partner. But suppose, contrary to their own interests, they did call in the debt. We don't have to print money; we only have to sell more Treasuries. This might require a rise in interest rates to make Treasuries more attractive, which would depress the economy somewhat, but it wouldn't be the end of the world.

269 You can dance the happy dance all you want about how the economy is going to sink Obama ----- and it will. And I won't be crying over his collapse. But if any of the conservative true believers are counting upon the usual silly mantra of 'tax cuts' to relight the moribund economy, boy are you in for a surprise. David Brooks and Henry Kissinger and ALL the rest are correct --- The problem IS structural. It's been coming for decades and now it's here. And it ain't going away just because Pelosi and Obama do. Republican and 'conservative' failure to understand this will cause them to be the next group in line in the blame game. And the economy will STILL be moribund.

270

its an Economics term for " EASING CREDIT"

Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 05:24 PM (jBC6p)

Ben ain't gonna hurt the banks.

Are not the vast majority of consumers already maxed out?

271

FASB 157

was just a statement

it was never enacted

272

FASB 157

was just a statement

it was never enacted

Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 06:16 PM (jBC6p)

That's not true, FASB 157 was enacted in 2007, it was relaxed in 2009

273

you will have to google fasb 157

this site wont let me paste it

IT WAS A STATEMENT

274 David Brooks and Henry Kissinger and ALL the rest are correct --- The problem IS structural. It's been coming for decades and now it's here. And it ain't going away just because Pelosi and Obama do.

Republican and 'conservative' failure to understand this will cause them to be the next group in line in the blame game. And the economy will STILL be moribund.

Posted by: dougf at September 13, 2010 06:12 PM (PSoWG)

All of the above are full of shit or are just the run of the mill liberal liars. What most people think of the economy is whether or not they have a job and whether or not they think they can keep it and buy groceries and pay the rent.

The largest contributor to employers not hiring right now is uncertainty caused by those communists who are in power right now. Uncertainty over health-scam and uncertainty over taxes. Get rid of those two things and the hiring will start, at first in a trickle, and depending on how the Republicans do, then a flood.

As the hiring and spending recover, so shall the economy. And the stock market. It will do what ever the large fund managers decide. The stock market has never been a good indicator of the economy and it never will. 

So if you mean the structural problem is that the communists are in charge, maybe you are correct.

275

You seem to have a different interpretation of the word STATEMENT than the FASB does. A STATEMENT to them means changing the original rule to add fair market value rules (mark to market) to the original rule.

Here is a link to fasb 157, also know as the mark to market rule. It isn't a statement like "the weather is nice today" it's a statement that says "this is the new rule".

http://tinyurl.com/33qxwvf

 

276

Thats funny the link I was trying to post was from the actual FASB site

concerning the 2007 staement

it didnt change anything in the Fair Market Accounting rules

AT THE SEC

I give up

277

it didnt change anything in the Fair Market Accounting rules

AT THE SEC

I give up

Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 06:43 PM (jBC6p)

That was downloaded from the FASB website. It's the actual statement.

278

this is from the 2007 staement

1

A position in a financial instrument that trades in an active market held by a broker-dealer or investment company within the scope of the AICPA Audit and Accounting Guides for those industries that was measured at fair value using a blockage factor prior to initial application of this Statement

279

2

A financial instrument that was measured at fair value at initial recognition under Statement 133 using the transaction price in accordance with the guidance in footnote 3 of Issue 02-3 prior to initial application of this Statement

280

2

A hybrid financial instrument that was measured at fair value at initial recognition under Statement 133 using the transaction price in accordance with the guidance in Statement 133 (added by Statement 155) prior to initial application of this Statement

 

NOTHING CHANGED !!!

281

A position in a financial instrument that trades in an active market held by a broker-dealer or investment company within the scope of the AICPA Audit and Accounting Guides for those industries that was measured at fair value using a blockage factor prior to initial application of this Statement

Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 06:47 PM (jBC6p)

Exactly, the blockage factor enabled holders of mortgage back securities to use face value as opposed to fair market value. The new rule 157 removed that causing holders of those securities to value their assets to the value of like assetts sold on the last day of the year.

In other words If I owned a security backed by 10 mortgages all of them performing and backed by real assetts and planned to hold them until they were paid off, never sell them I would have to value them based on what the price for mortgage backed securities were on the last trading day of the year.

The law was enacted at about the height of the market so the only place to go was down. People paniced and started selling them driving the value of everyone's assets wrongly down.

282

final paragraph

The transition adjustment, measured as the difference between the carrying amounts and the fair values of those financial instruments at the date this Statement is initially applied, should be recognized as a cumulative-effect adjustment to the opening balance of retained earnings (or other appropriate components of equity or net assets in the statement of financial position) for the fiscal year in which this Statement is initially applied.

283

I guess you dont know what

"opening balance of retained earnings"

means???

284

I guess you dont know what

"opening balance of retained earnings"

means???

Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 06:57 PM (jBC6p)

Oh will you just read the fucking statement under Changes Caused by This Statement.

Pay close attention to the part that the change is that securities must be valued at the current exit price instead of as before the entry price.

 

285
It'sthe perfect time for a empty suit, a left-wing puppet master to rule.
Obama is so cute and he promises hope and change! I worship him - blindly


Now is the best time for ObamaHillaryCare!

286 Obama Administration spent $800,000 on program to teach African's how to wash their genitals. 

What the hell?  Barney and his friends would have cock washed for nothing.

Posted by: Fish at September 13, 2010 03:45 PM (v1gw3)

My tax dollars at work!

287

the current exit price remains the same

ARE YOU JUST FUCKING WITH ME?

288

the current exit price remains the same

ARE YOU JUST FUCKING WITH ME?

Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 07:06 PM (jBC6p)

No and I am getting tired of this. The current exit price is the price at the last day of trading in the current year. That price remains fixed until the last day of trading of the next year. The entry price (the price you payed for it) changes to the exit price devaluing in this case assetts you may have had no plans to sell and that are performing and backed by real assetts.

It isn't that hard to figure out.

289 OT

As the yard signs signal the political season, a neighbor has put up an Obama/Biden sign.

To generate some excitement I guess.  Or he's
just an idiot

290

MY ONLY HOPE IS THAT YOU WORK FOR GEORGE SOROS

IVE ALWAYS WANTED TO SEE THAT DUMB ASS FALL

what you are posting is

NOT A RELAXED MARK TO MARKET!

holy shit

291

NOT A RELAXED MARK TO MARKET!

holy shit

Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 07:14 PM (jBC6p)

I only hope I am not paying to support a dumbass like you. The rule was enacted in 2007 and relaxed April 2, 2009.

Your original argument was that the 2007 rule really wasn't a rule dumbass.

292 IMHO, one of the first orders of business for a GOP Congress should be to repeal the Budget Act of 1974 that requires the White House to spend all the Congress budgets -- to take effect for the President in 2013.  Make the Obamacrats run against their spending record.... 

The budget has rarely been balanced since 1974, and debt has done nothing but grow.  Before that, Presidents of both parties would empound $ they didn't see as necessary as part of fiscal responsibility.  These days, the President doesn't have much control over the budget deficits or debt -- It's all Congress baby. 

293

wrong

my argument was that fasb 157 didnt change shit and it didnt

go look at ANYTHING related to FASB prior to 1999

before Clinton signed the Grahm Leach Bliley act

and you might understand what I am saying

but at this point I dont really give a shit

294

and you might understand what I am saying

but at this point I dont really give know a shit

Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 07:27 PM (jBC6p)

fify

295

so rbrt

you are going to tell me that

FAS 115   and    FAS 157

ARE THE SAME?????

because if you are then Im going to tell you that you are RETARDED

296 "One scenario is simply the US and China getting into a beef, and China calling in debt, and the US printing money (the only way to satisfy that debt), and then high inflation or even hyperinflation. " We could default on the debt, and I would seriously consider it before giving in to blackmail or turning over US assets. Before China decides to attack us in this manner, they should probably consider the impact on their own economy. Who is going to buy all of the crap they produce if the US does not / cannot?

297

Oil is not likely to spike any time soon, barring war risks.

Today, OPEC has market power but only by virtue of holding a lot of production off-line.  That means that the global price is at least $10/barrel overvalued and maybe as much as $40/barrel if there was a truly free market.

More likely is a scenario where crude oil prices drop due to OPEC members cheating on their quotas.  However, much of the excess, banked production is in Saudi Arabia.

In effect, the Sauds are keeping oil prices high so they can spend the profits on military hardware.  It's like we're buying all those airplanes for Saudi Arabia everytime we fill up our gas tanks.

As to the bigger gloom-and-doom picture, our main problems are our political leadership.   Change them to people who will let Americans run business without government interference and the "structural problems" would get solved reasonably soon. 

We can still recover from this mess when Obama and the Reid/Pelosi Congress get changed.

Yes, there is a lot of money waiting for the politics to be resolved.  I'm working on a major infrastructure project in Texas with a $15 billion price tag.  We're just puttering along, watching our cash flow until November when our investors, overseas and domestic, get a clear signal of a pro-business US government.

298

No, FASB 157 changed the existing rule. That's why it has a whole section entitled Changes Made by This Statement.

FASB is a unique document, it was issued to change the existing rule.

You seem unable to comprehend the written text of FASB 157. I can't help you with that sorry.

I'm done with this argument, you are all over the map and not worth the time. Everytime I prove you wrong you change to something entirely different and it isn't worth doing.

Have a nice day.

299

whitehall

Are you talking about Port Arthur?

300

You never put up an argument RBRT

you just seem to believe that just because the FASB puts out a statement

that everything changes, that everything goes back to being like FAS 115

and it didnt it didnt change shit as far as relaxing the Fair Accounting Rules

AND YOU KNOW THAT

 

301

All you said RBRT was

 " here are the new rules for 2007 , the rules havent changed"

end of statement

wow some argument

302

Mark to Market is just a dumb rule. Basically it means if you sell a mortgage backed security for ten cents on the dollar I have to value all of mine at ten cents on the dollar whether I want to sell them or not.

Mine could all be very good securities backed by real assetts and yours could have been junk but all of a sudden my assetts are decreased by 90% because you sold yours at that price.

Posted by: robtr at September 13, 2010 05:57 PM (fwSHf)

There you go, using those fancy accounting terms...

But in seriousness, didn't Mark to Market intuitively make sense when it first came out?

I mean, you buy an asset, a house lets say, for $100K.  Ten years later, it's worth $1million.  But you still have it listed in your asset column as only worth $100K.

Which intuitively doesn't make sense.  And to further compound this, other assets, like trucks or factory equipment are depreciated.  They don't stay on your balance sheet unchanged.  They change as time passes.

When I took financial accounting 101 many many years ago, I could never really reconcile that discepancy.  Yeah, I got that there was the conservative principle, meaning bettter to be conservative/safe in your accounting, rather that aggressive/risky.  So yeah, I could recite that as an answer.

But it never really made sense.  Emotionally, I mean.  My IRA value fluctuated every day, so I figured that the same should apply to financial statements.  Afterall, the market is the ultimate arbitrator of value, so why not use it?

HOWEVER, I think I have to conceed that my original belief in Mark to Market as being intuitively correct is probably wrong.

Aparently, it caused the balance sheets of companies to fluxuate very rapidly.  Which caused a lot of problems in borrowing or lending based off of a balance sheet.

So I think that Mark to Market would probably be less trouble causing if the markets were not fluxuating rapidly, but were more slow moving.  But since a lot of markets do fluxuate rapidly,  Mark to Market seems to have been a disaster.

Or am I all messed up in my thoughts?

303

#326

South Texas Project Units 3 and 4.

The Bush Administration got nuclear loan guarantees authorized to cover investor risk of the government reneging on their licenses, like they did during the first batch of nuclear power plant construction.  Not perfect free market but a real-world fix for political risks.

Obama has turned this program into 1) free money for renewables and other friends of the Democrats and 2) nuclear extortion.  Now, anyone wanting to build a new nuke HAS to SUCK UP to OBAMA.  It is unthinkable to start a nuke project UNLESS Obama wants you too. That's why the French government just got a $2 billion loan guarantee from Obama for a uranium enrichment plant they intend to build in Idaho, even though others are building competing plants WITHOUT US guarantees.

The French are expected to get a multi-billion loan for a new nuke in Maryland.  Obama has little love for Texans.

304 20 O/T Obama Administration spent $800,000 on program to teach African's how to wash their genitals. What the hell? Barney and his friends would have cock washed for nothing. Obama could have done his own instruction video for next to nothing. Open up with "Ridin' Dirty", move on to "Hail to the Chief" "...and thats how I wash off Michelle's stank" Would have gone viral and had clean tools all over Africa.

305 Over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives on the other hand are formula-based financial contracts between buyers and sellers, and are not traded on exchanges, so their market prices are not established by any active, regulated market trading. Market values are, therefore, not objectively determined or readily available (purchasers of derivative contracts are customarily furnished computer programs which compute market values based upon data input from the active markets and the provided formulas). During their early development, OTC derivatives such as interest rate swaps were not marked to market frequently. Deals were monitored on a quarterly or annual basis, when gains or losses would be acknowledged or payments exchanged

306

ok whitehall

I thought 16 billion was a little pricey for a refinery lol

307

Mark-to-market is appropriate for some securities and for some companies but not for others.

If one is trading securities on a regular basis or the securities have to be liquid for one's business purposes, then mark-to-market gives investors and lenders necessary information.

If the securities or assets are held for actual commercial purposes and not for trading, then amortization or depreciation might be more appropriate.

Buy some land and put a factory on it.  That land should be held at original purchase price, barring regulatory intervention - you turned it into a Superfund site, for instance.

308 The Bush Administration got nuclear loan guarantees authorized to cover investor risk of the government reneging on their licenses, like they did during the first batch of nuclear power plant construction.  Not perfect free market but a real-world fix for political risks.

My understanding of those "loan guarantees" was that they would cover the loans by investors to the utility in the event the utility went bankrupt in the process. IOW, the government actually puts up nothing and would never have to put up anything.

In other words the so-called "loan guarantees" to help nuclear power were nothing more than worthless rhetoric.

I followed that 2005 energy bill through congress closely as I was still working in Nuclear Power then. The more recent energy bill may have had more in it but I somehow doubt it.

309

Well the current problem with marking land values as current value is that no one wants to trade sub prime or hold sub prime for that matter

so let it ease out a year or 18 months

310

#335

Agreed that the Bush nuclear loan guarantees were likely to cost nothing to the taxpayer.  They just covered investors against governments OKing a project then changing their mind(s).  Technical and commercial risks were still the investors.

People with real money learned their lessons on Shoreham and WPPSS.  For Shoreham, the utility was sold for $1 to the state of New York after a county boad refused to take part in an emergency drill.

Today's deal is for the full amount with an up-front "insurance premium" to be paid by the project. Of course, the actual terms are kept "proprietary" so we don't know who's getting the sweet heart deal and who is getting the shaft.

311

IMHO

getting rid of MTBEs and replacing them with ethanol

was the biggest problem with the 2005 energy bill

312 Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 08:19 PM (jBC6p)

now you are talking about the housing market?   Or are you still talking about mark to market?

313 well Id say MBSs were both

314 Well, if you buy a stock, you do your research and you know how much risk you are willing to accept and you plan to hold said stock for a while then you can pretty much predict how things are going to go.   That is not true in other markets.

315

I dont do Equities

Now OTC derivatives thats my bag

but at the rate we are going I might be bailing soon because the swing is just getting too crazy

316 _{"US Debt-to-Deficit Difference Hits Fresh Record, As Treasury Continues To Issue 50% More Debt Than Needed To Fund Deficit"}

317 Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 08:51 PM (jBC6p)

Ah, so you like risk, lots of it and big bets.

318

About the debt

yes its too high

but if we can borrow at 1.25% on a five year

I say go for it

319

#340

"Sub-prime' refers to the mortgages, not the land.  Land is neither appreciated nor depreciated on the books unless something drastic happens to impair or improve it, like a zoning change or a new nearby freeway off-ramp.  The structures and improvements on the land can and should be depreciated.

If a bank holds a mortgage from an individual for a house and it is being paid on time, then is should be held at face value less payoff of principal.

If a hedge fund owns a bunch of mortgage backed securities and the default history now exceeds the initial assumptions, then it should be "marked-to-market" if possible using similar securities with similar default rates.  That's not easy.

However, I'm not a CPA but I have had a few MBA accounting classes so take my pontifications with a grain of salt.

On nuclear stuff, I'm an expert.

320 OK, a little research shows that the 2005 law has been modified to now cover licensing delays and ONLY for "advanced design" ( IOW Westinghouse AP1000).

However, the coverage is much better than just for a "default to investors". It covers something that I originally said they needed to fix, the delays caused by litigation. The government actually pays costs (to a certain amount) of delays caused by delays including litigation.

Just like the government. make it easy for eco-tards to hold up construction through serial litigation and instead of getting rid of the easy litigation, the tax payer pays for it.

IOW, now the tax payers pay the lawyers and the eco-tards. What could be better.

321

ok look its simple

we either have to

a. get rid of OTC derivative trading

b. get rid of sub prime

or c relax mark to market

the chances of A and B happening are next to the chances of Adolf Hilter winning a Jewish Beauty contest

so what do we have left

relax mark to market

 

and besides when they package Mortgage Backed Securities they dont cherry pick the good ones and the bad ones they do they whole enchilada

so yes there is some risk but hell thats what it is all about

322 Devin nunes is on with batchelor, in studio.
He has the heavy hitters on the panel tonight and they will be discussing the election tomorrow.

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324 'Night all.

325 QUOTE:
IOW, now the tax payers pay the lawyers and the eco-tards. What could be better.

Posted by: Vic at September 13, 2010 09:02 PM (/jbAw)

RESPONSE:

23rd century dictionary:

Environmentalist (n) (obs.): One of many tools used by lawyers to facilitate the eventual complete transfer of all wealth held by non-lawyers to lawyers.

326 Posted by: Vic at September 13, 2010 09:11 PM (/jbAw)

nite vic, thanks for so generously sharing your brain.

327 Posted by: Countaxula at September 13, 2010 09:04 PM (jBC6p)

yes and no, guess you don't hang out with the market makers much.

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