1 SELL! SELL! SELL!

2 I like my blogs like I like my women; wide.

3 The blog is broken

4

Yeah, that Haaahvahd degree sure makes BO smarter than the peeps..

 

 

5
Hopefully the blog is now unbroke. Sorry about that. Click on the chart to get it at its original majestic size.

6

There are simple economic truths, that some economists don't seem to get...

One of which is "You can't borrow your way out of debt".

7

I hope I am not completely insane, but I wonder if perhaps the utter failure of a President who was elected largely because:

a) the media thought he was cool, and

b) he had dark skin,

will actually be a wakeup call to the many serious citizens among the "minorities" in this country, and cause them to decide that it is time to throw off their self-applied shackles and quit voting for the corruptocrats that have a vested interest in their remaining angry and helpless victims.

8 It would be interesting to see what would have happened with the trillion dollar stimulus if the O admin had actually spent it on capital investments, rather than using about 2/3 of it on redistribution projects, picking up the tab for state programs. Keynesian economics is a crappy approach, but the admin didn't even do that. They just upped social spending to unreal levels.

9
The only money I'm spending extravagantly in this economic downturn is a weekly night with Miss Crystal from Platinum Plus and an eight ball of blow.  Nothing like drowning you woes by snorting a line of coke from the ass of a dancer. 

10 The public has hunkered down and reduced their debt.

I seem to recall hearing bleating about how people need to start spending to get us out of the Great Recession.  I also seem to recall Bush being pilloried for telling people to shop after 9/11 so we didn't go into a recession.

Just sayin'. 

11
Nothing like drowning you woes by snorting a line of coke from the ass of a dancer. 

An alternative form of 'stimulus spending.'

12 He hasn't done a damn thing to correct that perception, probably because he can't.

Posted by: Downsized Upscale at August 29, 2010 03:26 PM (IhHdM)

There are those who say, "The economy is in trouble." I say they're wrong.

NEXT!

13 I, I, I, uh... don't understand charts. Too much math. Send me, um, a powerpoint presentation. uh, on my teleprompter and I'll, uh, um, get back to you.

14 I, uh, have, um, made it clear that I'm open to new, uh, ideas. My door is wide, um, open! But I don' wanna, uh, hear, um, from all those people who, um, caused the problem in the, um, first, uh... place. You'd think they'd be thanking me.

15 I told you people D is for Drive and R is for going backwards.  Now watch me hit these shrimp.

16 Hey guys, c'mon... I'm borrowing shrimp here.

17 That graph summarizes much more than the responses to the current pathetic economic situation.

Everything Osama Obama does trends dramatically away from the American people.

There's a lesson for him there somewhere, but the blind, treasonous fuckstick isn't likely to ever listen to anything that makes sense.

18 I believe that there is one segment of the economy that us doing quite well.  A large gun store in the Knoxville area just recently moved to a new, larger building.  Firearm training classes are still packed.   The most recent guns show in K'town was elbow to elbow with people buying stuff. 

19 Is this a big fucking deal?

20 Zeros from here to infinity. Sounds good to me. I like this office, if not the job.

21 You know, a Keynesian stimulus might work to get you out of a normal business cycle recession, or at least smooth it out, but how is it supposed to work with a debt/financial driven recession? It did not work in Japan. I don't see how it can work when the only solution is to slowly reduce debt levels. A few extra bridges and payments to teachers won't help much.

22 funny how us stupid commoners knew that more government spending would crash the economy, but none of the brainiacs in DC or in the MFM figured it out. i do wish all would quit using the term 'stimulus', as it stimulates the economy like helen thomas stimulates my weiner. how about economic douche, enema, or de-balling instead?

23 I like this office, if not the job.

Ace was dead right, Obama wanted the job of Pres. Elect, not President.

24 Well, future generations don't vote now and liberals don't have kids, so why the fuck not run up the debt to save state workers' pensions and other shit that benefits liberals (mostly) while sticking conservatives and their kids (mostly) with the tab?

The fact that the Left's playbook makes perfect sense if viewed through a quasi-Marxist lens is quite the irony and makes a mockery of their claim to be above that sort of money-grubbing motivation.

25 There's a lesson for him there somewhere, but the blind, treasonous fuckstick isn't likely to ever listen to anything that makes sense.

Posted by: MrScribbler at August 29, 2010 03:42 PM (Ulu3i)

Of course not because he IS sense. He is the Light, the Truth. Us silly mouthbreathers are too busy wallowing in feces to know what's good for us. He must lead us by the hand like the retarded children that we are.

Pride comes before the fall...

26
I'm gonna put it in D for depression rather than R for recession and stomp on the go pedal.

27 When the economy sours what do businesses such as Cat and airlines do? Do they hire more people? Do they invest heavily in updating their equipment? Do they renovate their buildings to make them more eco-friendly? They lay-off employees and they halt investment-spending until the economy improves.

28 When things are good, the demos say, "Hey, things are good, let's raise taxes and start a bunch of programs because we can afford it."

When things are bad, the demos say, "Hey, things are bad, let's raise taxes and start a bunch of programs because we can't afford not to."

The defining principal of liberals economically is they believe all money is the governments, they just decide how much to give us.  That's as simple as it gets. 

29
Economies, how do they f'n work?

30 Also, if it were 1980 or 1960, you could see how America could "grow" out of the debt. There was manufacturing and technology being done in the USA. Now, more and more of this can be done in poorer countries, and it is. This means that until wage convergence comes about, the USA will have rough going in creating economic growth. And, of course, our political class and some section of the populace (most likely government employees) seem to think anti-business regulations, taxes, etc. are no problem. Water off a ducks back! Intel can afford an extra 1 billion dollars to open a factory in California rather than China, right? LOL. Christie is what is going to have to happen, and in a bigger more national way. Who will be the guy to lower cap gains, corporate tax rates, and payroll taxes while slashing entire bureaucracies? I don't know.

31 All right fuckers, the party's over!

I don't care how drunk and vomitted you are, get the fuck outta my house!

32 "Harry, I have a gift"

33 Nothing like drowning you woes by snorting a line of coke from the ass of a dancer. 

An alternative form of 'stimulus spending.'

Posted by: geoff at August 29, 2010 03:35 PM (clc+K)

Hey, big spenders!

*WINK*

34 Keynesian economics is a crappy approach, but the admin didn't even do that. They just upped social spending to unreal levels.

Posted by: XBradTC at August 29, 2010 03:28 PM (X0Ona)

This gets it right; the community organizer just tossed all the swag at no-return recipients.  It would be almost impossible to squander it as badly as the jugeared fuck did.

35 Mr Zuckerman is partially correct for Americans with an IQ above that of warm water.

Most Americans have zero idea of what the "economy" actually is. If you ask the average man on the street he will probably come back with something like the Dow or the stock market.

But even worse is the average Obama voter. i.e. the Peggy Josephs of the country to who's only interface with the economy is a monthly check from social services which she assumes comes for Obama's stash.

And there lies the problem with why the government has expanded at ever increasing rates and the people only get nervous when the economy goes South. About have the people don't have a clue and 25% of the remainder don't know much better. 

36
When I was five we were at a parade in the VIP's box and my Father was talking to Senator Yarborough about if he lines some friends pockets and then they would line his pockets.
Anyway, so I looked in Senator Yarborough's coat pocket and all he had was a snotty handkerchief, Mint Lifesavers and some Tums. I was very confused at five years old.

37
I started a joke, which started the whole world crying,
but I didn't see that the joke was on me, oh no.

I started to cry, which started the whole world laughing,
oh, if I'd only seen that the joke was on me.

I looked at the skies, running my hands over my eyes,
and I fell out of bed, hurting my head from things that I'd said.

Til I finally died, which started the whole world living,
oh, if I'd only seen that the joke was on me.

38 Instinctively people know debt is bad, they only skate the line of how much they can get away with.

39 22 You know, a Keynesian stimulus might work to get you out of a normal business cycle recession, or at least smooth it out, but how is it supposed to work with a debt/financial driven recession?

It did not work in Japan.

I don't see how it can work when the only solution is to slowly reduce debt levels. A few extra bridges and payments to teachers won't help much.

Posted by: sexypig at August 29, 2010 03:45 PM (0t7L

As questionable as the Keynes model is, the Demotards (and yes, many Republicans as well) ignored the other side of the coin: paying down the debt run up when the economy is doing well.  All of the time the West was cruising, the tab kept getting bigger.

40

 

It did not work in Japan.

I don't see how it can work when the only solution is to slowly reduce debt levels. A few extra bridges and payments to teachers won't help much.

Posted by: sexypig at August 29, 2010 03:45 PM (0t7L

Well, if I remember correctly, Keynesian economics states that government spending is what is required.  Now WHAT the government is spending that money on isn't important.  The government could spend that money on highways, internet services, aquaducts...or it could spend it on litterally building bricks that would then be dumped into the ocean.

I don't have the economic equation on the tip of my tongue right now, but that's pretty much what I remember it saying.

Which, to be blunt, seems pretty counter-factual to me.

The government spending money on space research and satelite networks seems more likely to lead to positive economic growth that spending money on clay bricks to fill the oceans.

And furthermore, if I remember correctly, Japan was very big on just spending money on make-work projects.  I believe they would start pouring concrete to make retaining walls and errosion control all along the coastline as part of this.  So vast swaths of Japanese coastline have these concrete errosion control structures, which were really just Keynesian economic stimulus projects.

Which as "sexypig" wrote, didn't work out so hot for Japan.

41 Appropriately enough, Trekkies is on now and I have to catch it.  I'm also gonna record it. . . .

42 Keynesian economics is a crappy approach, but the admin didn't even do that. They just upped social spending to unreal levels.

Posted by: XBradTC at August 29, 2010 03:28 PM (X0Ona)

With the Keynesian crowd, social spending is the highest and best use of all government money. Welfare payments to baby mamas is just as good as a bridge; maybe even better.

43 Vic, I was freaked out when my wife came home from ESL class asking me about food stamps, housing support, etc. Apparently, some of the other students wondered why our family wasn't using these programs and they helpfully explained how to get these benefits. This is not a good sign when the immigrants know all about these programs instead of busting their ass working 3 jobs to get their kids into college.

44 Nothing like drowning you woes by snorting a line of coke from the ass of a dancer. 

I charge extra for that.

45

The first party or politician that promisses me stipends to do blow off the ass of a stripper gets my immeidate and everlasting vote!!!

 

46

One of the things about economics, (primarily macro, but also micro) is that fundamentally, we really don't have any sort of solid grasp on it.

We're pretty good at micro, but still not all the way there.

For example, supply and demand theories work pretty good at explaining micro-economics.  But then we have to look at the the weak, semi-strong, and strong financial market efficiency theories.  For a while, finance experts were moving towards the strong efficiency view.  Which coincides the best with supply and demand theories.  But the strong efficeincy view argues that their will be no such thing as market "bubbles".  Which we've seen isn't the case.

With macro, we still have all sorts of debates as to what model most accurately predicts the future.

And I don't think we've managed to really integrate the macro and micro fields either.

Ultimately, I think that even though a lot of economic professsionals and proffessors are working really hard to make economics a real "science", with math and formulas and models that have actual predictive value, we still struggle with trying to create models that predict such a complicated thing as national and world economic systems.

And I totally exculude fromt the above paragraph all that marxist ass bullshit that some people try to pass off.

 

47 Some people may be paying down debt (like Downsized Upscale above), but perhaps not all.  From an article at today's lewrockwell.com:

"Household and non-profit debt ... peaked at $13.8 trillion in 2008. After two years ... the balance is $13.5 trillion. Consumers have buckled down and have paid off 2.2% of their debts, it seems. ...

"Consumer debt outstanding is $300 billion lower. ... [but] banks have charged off 5.66% of all their loans in the last two years. ...

"If consumer debt was $13.8 trillion at the end of 2008 and the banks have since written off 5.66% of that debt, total write-offs were $800 billion. If total consumer debt now sits at $13.5 trillion, then consumers have actually taken on $500 billion of additional debt since the end of 2008. The consumer hasn't cut back at all. They are still spending and borrowing."

This seems to indicate that for everyone like Downsized Upscale who is trying to do the right thing, one or two others have decided to say "Piss on it".  Not so good.

48

I'm shedding debt as fast as I can. Discretionary purchases are close to zero.

 

When I lost my job and discovered I was in for months of funemployment, I canceled my cable service and all magazine and website subscriptions (like StratFor). I can't remember the last CD or DVD I purchased, and I only buy books for my Kindle that cost $1.00 or less (i.e. classics).

 

I've stopped eating out altogether, and I buy only generic products at the grocery store. I mix generic fruit punch ($1.00/gallon if you have a Safeway card) with Val-U-Rite to make it go further, and a vodka-punch cocktail with a small dish of cat food makes a great meal when you're on a tight budget.

 

I also send my cats out to hunt for me every evening, and they bring me freshly-killed lizards, snakes, and pigeons from the neighborhood to supplement my diet. Do you people have any other suggestions I can use to save money in this economy? Serious replies only, please.

49 Rich;  Grow your own, Distill your own, and avoid high priced hookers and blow. 

50 Hickenlooper founded fund that supports far-left groups

http://3.ly/DHvd

51
Some people may be paying down debt (like Downsized Upscale above), but perhaps not all. 

That's a good point, but the banks who wrote off the 5.66% of their loans didn't necessarily have a choice - the debtors decided that they couldn't or wouldn't continue to sustain that level of debt.

I'm a little puzzled as to where he (Quinn) gets his numbers. The graph I used above is based on the second graph in his article. That shows a 6.4% decline from the peak, not a 2.2% decline. Again, there is almost certainly a large portion of mortgage defaults in that decline, but I think that it's still illustrative of consumer desire (or need) to reduce debt, and the banks' strategy to accept those losses and move on.

52 But the strong efficeincy view argues that their will be no such thing as market "bubbles". Which we've seen isn't the case. The strong efficiency model can't account for two things. The first is human nature. Trying to impose rationality on effectively irrational people just doesn't work. The second, stronger force is market distortion by government regulation and policy. Fannie and Freddie are textbook examples of the policy side, and there's a ton of rentseeking regulation out there as well.

53 I personally think Zuckerman's done a man's work in capturing the mood of America.

Good on him.  A shame, however, that he didn't have a clue back when it mattered.  Zuckerman voted for Obama and was one of his major cheerleaders.

54

XBradTC,

I think you're right about the first thing.  Else bubbles wouldn't happen.  But I think you're wrong about #2 simply in terms of definition.  The strong efficient market hypothesis states that prices instantly reflect both public knowledge, and hidden, insider information.

Even when the EMH'ers try to explain why we have bubbles, they try to do it by saying stuff like, "well, as the public knowledge is unstable, so is the market price."  Whatever...

Anyway, all of that market distortion you mention are supposed to be factored into the end price.  i.e., I know the government is subsidizing something, so this affects my view of it's worth.

55 Ed, It's been a long time since I took an economics class, but bear with me. You say the model factors known and unknown distortions by the govt. instantly. But as a practical matter, govt. interference introduces uncertainty, which different people react to differently, increasing either the spread or the volatility of a price.

56

I personally think Zuckerman's done a man's work in capturing the mood of America.

No crime in making dumb statements, but if you're going to blog on the right you probably don't want to make a habit of it.

57 Personally it is my opinion that every bubble we have had since the formation of government central banking has been BECAUSE of government interference in the markets in one form or another.

Go back and look at every huge recession we have had since the early 1900s and you will find the hand of government.

58

I hear ya, XBradTC.

Vic, you could be right.  And that, plus the existence of bubbles, undermines the efficient market hypothesis.  Which co-incides with the supply and demand theory of micro-economics.

Which leads me back to my original point:  Despite our best good faith efforts, our ability to model our economic markets is still uncertain at best.

59 Despite our best good faith efforts, our ability to model our economic markets is still uncertain at best.

I would go further and say it is non-existent. In order to model it you would have to have someone who could account for every variable and input device. If you had people who could do that then central planning of the economy would work.

History has shown over and over again that central planning is always a massive failure. This is what you just can not get through to the big government commies.  Their ideas simply do not work.  

60
No crime in making dumb statements, but if you're going to blog on the right you probably don't want to make a habit of it.

If I'm going to blog on the right? I've been at it for some time. And to what in particular (other than the Blade Runner reference) did you object?

61 We can't model the economy, but we can predict general trends, given a transparent market. For instance, if I know I have an income of $1k a month, I know that spending $2k a month with no additional income in the future is probably going to end badly. As to bubbles, you may not be able to predict when a bubble will pop, but spotting one is not impossible- "irrational exuberance" anyone?

62
As to bubbles, you may not be able to predict when a bubble will pop, but spotting one is not impossible- "irrational exuberance" anyone?

I always think the bubbles will pop much earlier than they do: I was waiting for the real estate bubble to pop for 4 years before it finally did (and of course it probably hasn't finished popping).

63
other than the Blade Runner reference

...which I just realized should have been "job," not "work." Oh well.

64 Yes you can make general predictions and yes, anyone can spot a bubble.

People were screaming about the "internet bubble" loudly. There were some idiot "economic talking heads" on TV saying it was a new economy. Lo and behold, internet stores did not have to make a profit! I heard that from one of the bozos and said to myself, boy am I glad I have no stock in that shit.

Then not 5 years later we start the "housing boom". Again we had people warning of an approaching bubble pop. But lo and behold, we had talking head saying ney ney, new paradigm. Even Niel Cavuto was caught up in it. Some politicians like Bush and McCain tried to get a warning out on F&F and the impending doom there. We saw how that went.

Yes, people with common sense can spot these things. As for home prices all you had to do was look at the long term trends and say this is a serious WTF.

Guess what, we have government idiots now STILL trying to hold up that housing bubble. If you look at those same housing trend we are yet to get housing prices down to where they should be. IOW, we are not yet out of the woods because people are still trying to keep us in the woods.

The question becomes "are these people stupid, or is there another reason for their behavior?"

65 Can we have a chart showing periodicity of Blade Runner references by you?

66 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania

67
Can we have a chart showing periodicity of Blade Runner references by you?

It'd be pretty boring - it'd be a flat line at a pretty high level. But not as high as Big Trouble in Little China.

68 Bubbles tend to pop right before elections that trend against the incumbent.

69 I wish I was paying down debt. But I'm working on a lowest-bid government contract, so what I'm making (after shelling out for the overpriced/under-employer funded health insurance for my wife) is insufficient for expenses. I'm also working out of town away from my primary residence. That wasn't as big a deal as when I got to live in the office for free. That only lasted for the first four months though.

So we minimize expenses, live cheap at both places, I visit "home" once a month, and whatever the income can't cover (prescription co-pays for her, etc.) goes on the credit cards.

Eventually I'll be without a chair when the music stops, but hopefully it won't be in the next couple months.

70 If I'm going to blog on the right? I've been at it for some time. And to what in particular (other than the Blade Runner reference) did you object?

Posted by: geoff at August 29, 2010 05:43 PM (clc+K)

My apologies, sir. I assume now that your line was actually disparaging towards Morty. Not the first time I've been bitten in the ass by my lack of interest in Hollyweird, and I'm sure it won't be the last.

71
I assume now that your line was actually disparaging towards Morty.

No, it was quite sincere. I thought he did a great job of summing up the public's attitude toward Obamanomics in 2 tidy paragraphs. But that's as far as my fandom takes me. Besides, if we don't acknowledge these guys when they open their eyes and start saying the right things, how will they ever correct their evil ways?

72 There is another instinctive conclusion among the American people. It is that the national deficit, and the debts we have accumulated, are of critical political importance.

This isn't "instinctive" it is true. These debts have consequences.

Further, I could bog this server down with quotes from leftists whining about the debt regarding Operation Iraqi Freedom while President Bush was in office.

73 That the American people are truly skeptical of using increased debt to spend our way out of our woes?

That is probably because there is no evidence that such spending can or would work.

Ever.

No economy has ever "spent their way out of woes" in the history of the world.

74 "Perception."

There's not any worth-a-shit economist who really believes the recession is about government spending.

You're playing a little rightwing-fuckhead game, geoff.

Oh well. You'll probably win. The recession will only deepen unless gov spending increases.

No question, if the repubs were running the show, same stimulus, only war, war, more war.

Fuck you, geoff.

75 The best way to get started in network marketing is by making yourself accessible to a large amount of people. Believe it or not, social networking sites such as Myspace have become quite popular for individuals and businesses alike.

76

Three words:

 

Lace. Wigs.

77 I need an iPhone 4 Converter software to convert DivX videos to iphone format. Come to AVI to iPhone 4 Converter, MPEG to iPhone 4, MKV to iPhone 4, iPhone 4 Converter for Mac Guide on how to copy dvd to ipad.have a try it.