December 06, 2010

Enough about Europe -- let's talk about China [Fritzworth]
— Open Blogger

Whatever financial shenanigans are going on over in Europe, we can count on China to provide financial and political stability for the Eastern Hemisphere, right? Well, maybe not:


China is an emerging market oddity in demographic terms. It is not the oldest, but it is the fastest ageing country on earth, and by 2050 it will be older than the US on every major demographic measurement. From now on, China's youth and working age populations are going to fall, and those over 65 will soar. Put another way, there will only be 2.5 workers to support each older citizen, compared with ten today. . . .

. . . the Yangtse Delta ... is not the equivalent of a Silicon Valley, which thrives on adversarial conflict in innovation, proprietary ownership of processes, patents and copyrights, and the absence of hierarchy and political interference. . . .

. . . the [economic restructuring] issue is about whether the Party is willing and able to give citizens political, as well as economic, rights, and whether in today's rapidly modernising economy, rule by law can substitute for rule of law without thwarting or distorting economic development. . . .

. . . the government's legitimacy rests on a sort of informal social contract based on the continuous delivery of eight to nine percent economic growth. But a slowdown could occur for a variety of reasons over the next decade and beyond. . . .

. . . China's increasing status as a world power is already generating global tensions. When a Chinese craft recently rammed a Japanese fishing boat off the disputed Senkaku islands, the Japanese Foreign Minister wondered whether we are now starting to see the 'essence of China'. . . .

As the saying goes, read the whole thing. And while you're at it, be sure to read this article as well:


The Royal Bank of Scotland has advised clients to take out protection against the risk of a sovereign default by China as one of its top trade trades for 2011. This is a new twist.

It warns that the Communist Party will have to puncture the credit bubble before inflation reaches levels that threaten social stability. This in turn may open a can of worms.

"Many see ChinaÂ’s monetary tightening as a pre-emptive tap on the brakes, a warning shot across the proverbial economic bows. We see it as a potentially more malevolent reactive day of reckoning," said Tim Ash, the bankÂ’s emerging markets chief.

Between Scylla and Charybdis indeed. ..fritz..

Posted by: Open Blogger at 08:24 AM | Comments (54)
Post contains 436 words, total size 3 kb.

1 Oh, joy.  'Cause that's just what our economy needs.  You know what debt holders who are facing bankruptcy themselves tend to do first?  Call in all their debts...

Think about it.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 06, 2010 08:27 AM (8y9MW)

2 #1  You know what debt holders who are facing bankruptcy themselves tend to do first?  Call in all their debts...

And here it comes...

I say we give the Chi-Coms California.  The value of that land mass should be enough to settle all our debts with China. 

/In the end, there will be only chaos.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 06, 2010 08:30 AM (9hSKh)

3 China has never been the big economic powerhouse that everyone harped about.

Posted by: Vic at December 06, 2010 08:32 AM (e4sSD)

4
Geoff is the go-to man for China and Charts.

Posted by: Soothsayer, TIME's Man of the Year at December 06, 2010 08:33 AM (uFokq)

5 I say we give the Chi-Coms California.

I say make them an offer. Either the "population" of SF and LA to be their slaves, or U. S. dollars. Both are about as equally worthless.

We will keep the land and the remaining sane population in the center of CA will fix the government.

Posted by: Vic at December 06, 2010 08:34 AM (e4sSD)

6

All these people talking about "buying gold"... you can't eat it or turn it into a useful bullet.

Seriously.

Posted by: Truman North at December 06, 2010 08:34 AM (HLGCA)

7 Between Scylla and Charybdis indeed.

No, you only consider me your young apprentice.

Posted by: Sting at December 06, 2010 08:37 AM (BP6Z1)

8 The one-child policy is an important, though not the only, factor contributing to this enormous demographic transition. The consequences include slower economic expansion, and growing social problems as a result of chronic gender imbalance.

And given what I've seen in Asian fashion, the Chinese will look really ridiculous if they turn out to be the only gay superpower since Sparta,

In all seriousness, this massive gender imbalance might make the Chinese more aggressive if they have a huge surplus of young, single men eager for adventure.  For the majority of the PRC's history, they have been content with being a strong, yet aloof regional power.  For the past 10, 15 years though they have been building up their military strength.  Currently, they are testing their fortitude and power with some pushing as seen with this situation with the Japanese fishermen and their occasional forays with the US Navy.  They are even helping Iran attain nuclear capabilities, although not with the same magnitude as the Russians are. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 06, 2010 08:38 AM (9hSKh)

9 A free market economy only works in a......wait for it....... free society. Imagine that.

Posted by: Praxeus at December 06, 2010 08:40 AM (LuulU)

10 2 #1  You know what debt holders who are facing bankruptcy themselves tend to do first?  Call in all their debts...
And here it comes...

I say we give the Chi-Coms California.  The value of that land mass should be enough to settle all our debts with China. 

/In the end, there will be only chaos.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 06, 2010 12:30 PM (9hSKh)

Throw in Hawaii, Round-Eye and you have deal!

Posted by: Hu Jintao at December 06, 2010 08:40 AM (5qJM5)

11 China is the supreme intellectual among nations!  Anything we can do, China can do better!  China is the ultimate in moral, enlightened economic leadership!  So what if they harvest organs from political prisoners?

Posted by: Thomas Friedman at December 06, 2010 08:41 AM (xxgag)

12 #10  Throw in Hawaii, Round-Eye and you have deal!

Done. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 06, 2010 08:43 AM (9hSKh)

13 I've got an idea that may be China's economic salvation:  Soylent Yellow.

Posted by: WalrusRex at December 06, 2010 08:43 AM (xxgag)

14 Hmm, faltering economy, surplus of males, despotic regime.

However will China resolve this issue?

Posted by: 18-1 at December 06, 2010 08:43 AM (7BU4a)

15
I say we give the Chi-Coms California.  The value of that land mass should be enough to settle all our debts with China.

And the lefties in CA would finally get their divorce from Jesusland...

Posted by: 18-1 at December 06, 2010 08:45 AM (7BU4a)

16 I'm not worried.  The Chinese are scared of Pelosi .

Posted by: WalrusRex at December 06, 2010 08:45 AM (xxgag)

17

"All these people talking about "buying gold"... you can't eat it or turn it into a useful bullet."

You can eat it, if you don't mind getting jaundice and pooping blood. 

Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at December 06, 2010 08:46 AM (HaYO4)

18

I say we give the Chi-Coms California

 

They already own it

Posted by: kj at December 06, 2010 08:47 AM (CMUvw)

19 Hmm, faltering economy, surplus of males, despotic regime.

However will China resolve this issue?
Posted by: 18-1

The Carrousel of course!

Posted by: dr. goldbricker at December 06, 2010 08:47 AM (GkMfH)

20 I say we give the Chi-Coms California.  The value of that land mass should be enough to settle all our debts with China. 

/In the end, there will be only chaos.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 06, 2010 12:30 PM (9hSKh)

 

Done and they can take Seattle too. In fact let them take all of the lefty areas. They love communism so much I'm sure they'd enjoy being under Beijing's thumb

Posted by: TheQuietMan at December 06, 2010 08:49 AM (1Jaio)

21 #18 They already own it

Not if we have anything to say about it, Gringo! 

Posted by: Mexico via Illegial Immigration at December 06, 2010 08:50 AM (9hSKh)

22

You can eat it, if you don't mind getting jaundice and pooping blood. 

It now seems possible-- even likely-- that gold is the "secret ingredient" in my mother's cooking

Posted by: Truman North at December 06, 2010 08:50 AM (HLGCA)

23 It will be hilarious when the Chinese secret police bust up the first Venice Beach drumming circle and turn them all into slave labor in the desert.

Posted by: sifty at December 06, 2010 08:51 AM (MoA1d)

24 We've certainly batted these issues around here before, although it is interesting to see some of our doubts of the invincibility of China somewhat validated by numbers and circumspection by the big players.

A society imbalanced demographically toward men may be hot for war, but (and I know I've posted as much here before) we're talking about millions of families with just one son, a son who in centuries of tradition has been coddled, and I'm not sure how popular a war would be.  Well, maybe smaller regional wars could be stomached, but a long, multinational warof attrition?  Even authoritarian regimes can;t be completely ignorant of the popular will, and I can;t see a broad swath of the population wanting to sacrifice only children for cannon fodder thousands of miles away.

Maybe China is in Africa for not just mineral wealth, but babes?   I've sort of half-joked that war-torn countries like Angola with their shortages of males certainly can complement China demographically.  Even if the Chinese may harbor some racial attitudes that would seem to forestall intermarriage, horniness can overcome a lot of things.  Look at the history of the American South.

Posted by: logprof at December 06, 2010 08:54 AM (BP6Z1)

25

China is probably better positioned than any country on earth and here is why - they have the ability to make immediate course changes in politics and economics and have more natural resources and now own most of the earth's natural resources.  They are amassing stock piles of gold for physical hold and their citizens are used to austerity and used to a certain standard of living albeit emerging they are conditioned in many ways to accept a low wage scale.

China, if anything has been planning on a westernized economic collapse. They think long term and have been quietly amassing real assets while we piss away time. The chinese have even sold for the first time ever, debt on their own currency.

And the Chinese is a creditor nation as opposed to a lender nation. So for the Bank of Scotland to suggest buying credit swaps against a Chinese banking position is pure bullshit.  Bullshit when every U.S. bank is currently insolvent.

 

Posted by: journolist at December 06, 2010 08:55 AM (LwLqV)

26 10 2 #1  You know what debt holders who are facing bankruptcy themselves tend to do first?  Call in all their debts...
And here it comes...

I say we give the Chi-Coms California.  The value of that land mass should be enough to settle all our debts with China. 

/In the end, there will be only chaos.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 06, 2010 12:30 PM (9hSKh)

Throw in Hawaii, Round-Eye and you have deal!

Posted by: Hu Jintao at December 06, 2010 12:40 PM (5qJM5)

So...ummmmmmm, we'll then have only, uhhhhhhhhh, 55 States?

Posted by: TEH WON at December 06, 2010 08:57 AM (5qJM5)

27 I say we trade them France.  Then the French youth torching problem goes away also.

Posted by: ingenus at December 06, 2010 08:58 AM (+sBB4)

28 This sentence is hilarious:

China is a big fish already in the information, low carbon, clean air, and automotive technologies.

What they really mean is that constructing "low carbon" energy generators, such as windmills and solar panels, are so environmentally destructive and energy-draining that China can build them because their environmental standards are exceptionally low. 


Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 06, 2010 09:00 AM (9hSKh)

29 #24  Maybe China is in Africa for not just mineral wealth, but babes?

Good point, although if China was in the market for additional "babes", they'd more likely look towards their Asian neighbors, including Russia, for supply.  After all, the Chinese consider themselves the most enlightened amongst all the Asian nations.

/Gotta hand it to them - they have no cultural PC hang-wringing about seeing themselves as superior.  

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 06, 2010 09:04 AM (9hSKh)

30 China needs more gold farmers!

Posted by: sifty at December 06, 2010 09:05 AM (MoA1d)

31
Women, children and Thomas Friedman hardest hit.

But I repeat myself.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at December 06, 2010 09:08 AM (DZVrI)

32 Eat me.

Posted by: Szechuan Kitty at December 06, 2010 09:11 AM (RWtqz)

33

I was hating on China before hating on China was cool.

 

Posted by: Monty at December 06, 2010 09:13 AM (4Pleu)

34 Break out the comfy chairs.

Britain receives a European arrest warrant from Sweden for WikiLeaks' founder Julian Assange - BBC http://bbc.in/dLO86t

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 06, 2010 09:14 AM (9hSKh)

35

Hmm, faltering economy, surplus of males, despotic regime.

However will China resolve this issue?

If they can just be induced to kill the jihadist men and take their women...

Posted by: Curmudgeon at December 06, 2010 09:18 AM (ujg0T)

36 37 Break out the comfy chairs.


Nice!
 I consider him an enemy combatant for all intents and purposes, so I couldn't care less what kind of procedural rights he has, I just want him picked up on the (probably bogus) "rape" charges so the authorities can bust his computer wide open and start digging. I'm guessing Julian has some interesting friends.

Posted by: Lincolntf at December 06, 2010 09:19 AM (Z6Mgb)

37

I was hating on China before hating on China was cool.

Me, too!!!  Me, too!!!

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at December 06, 2010 09:20 AM (B+qrE)

38 Gotta hand it to them - they have no cultural PC hang-wringing about seeing themselves as superior. 

I'd say they give Japan a run for their money.  As far as cultural hubris goes, Japan leads the pack.

Posted by: EC at December 06, 2010 09:21 AM (mAhn3)

39 Secretary Janet Napolitano and Walmart hardest hit.

Posted by: Fritz at December 06, 2010 09:21 AM (GwPRU)

40 Add to that that China has spent over $264 billion via direct purchase, company position, JV or loan-for-access on oil over the last 3 years.  They may not have the stability they've advertised but they have a handle on a substancial amount of the future global production. Additionally, it was purchased when oil was low. China has the ability to provide energy for their economy or be quite, pardon this, "liquid" in an essential market as prices are rising and the resources continues to become limited.

Posted by: Rob B. at December 06, 2010 09:22 AM (q32Ly)

41

China is probably better positioned than any country on earth and here is why - they have the ability to make immediate course changes in politics and economics and have more natural resources and now own most of the earth's natural resources.  They are amassing stock piles of gold for physical hold and their citizens are used to austerity and used to a certain standard of living albeit emerging they are conditioned in many ways to accept a low wage scale.

China, if anything has been planning on a westernized economic collapse. They think long term and have been quietly amassing real assets while we piss away time. The chinese have even sold for the first time ever, debt on their own currency.

And the Chinese is a creditor nation as opposed to a lender nation. So for the Bank of Scotland to suggest buying credit swaps against a Chinese banking position is pure bullshit.  Bullshit when every U.S. bank is currently insolvent.

 

Posted by: journolist at December 06, 2010 12:55 PM (LwLqV)


--But in a global war, would not China be fairly easily blockaded and cut off from a lot of these resources, especially oil?

Posted by: logprof at December 06, 2010 09:22 AM (BP6Z1)

42 Would it be rude if I said "FUCK China!!"..?

Posted by: Sponge © at December 06, 2010 09:24 AM (UK9cE)

43

--But in a global war, would not China be fairly easily blockaded and cut off from a lot of these resources, especially oil?

In about three minutes.  No west coast, you see.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at December 06, 2010 09:24 AM (B+qrE)

44 Britain receives a European arrest warrant from Sweden for WikiLeaks' founder Julian Assange - BBC http://bbc.in/dLO86t

I don't remember if it was here or on another site that I read about the nature of the sex offense alleged to have been committed by Assange.  Even if it were here, well, I understand that this site is not totally opposed to double posting.  The allegation against Assange is that the girl consented but only if he used a condom, then he went bareback. 

Posted by: WalrusRex at December 06, 2010 09:24 AM (xxgag)

45 Mr. Joe "Let's Return to Civility" Scarborough told certain critics of his to "kiss my ass" on his television show today. This after Michael Bloomberg publicly assumed the Times Square bomber was someone who "didn't like the health care bill" - as in all we morons at AofSHQ were suspects - and that the new batch of congressmen and women "can't even read". These are the civility mongerers. The new "No Labels" crowd. Let us all join them in their pursuit of higher politcal discourse by inviting these two douchers to go f*ck themselves.

Posted by: JDW at December 06, 2010 09:24 AM (uw+0A)

46

 Put another way, there will only be 2.5 workers to support each older citizen, compared with ten today

Who will go pee- pee in all of those Cokes!?

Posted by: garrett at December 06, 2010 09:25 AM (sqqku)

47 As if that "protection" would actually pay off with a Chinese collapse. That's almost as funny as people who buy CDSs insuring against US default. As if monetary scrap would be left around the world ... It's just a variant on the old truism that your insurance is only as good as the company that issues it. The story of this global economic downturn is ultimately that of how badly everyone misjudged risk, and consequently overleveraged themselves. From the individual all the way up to the sovereigns: we were awash in easy credit backed up by a profoundly mistaken belief that we were adequately "hedged" against default. The ChiComs are in an even worse fix because, well, they're Commies. Their government rules by fiat, and you can use most of their financial numbers to wipe your ass when you run out of TP. I've been saying this for years. I cannot fathom why investors have rushed into a closed, centrally-planned, communist-led economy that has every reason to lie about their success and to hide the (ever increasing) evidence that their economy is overleveraged and overheating. Add to that the reality of the demographic time-bomb, and China is purely a sucker's bet. You cannot "hedge" against systemic sovereign default -- at least, not with fiat currency. Commodities -- particularly gold and silver -- are your only real fallback. (Silver just hit $30/oz, and gold is at $1420.)

Posted by: Monty at December 06, 2010 09:25 AM (4Pleu)

48 Ace finally has a 100,000,000 post!

Posted by: logprof, who spends waaaaaaay too much time here at December 06, 2010 09:26 AM (BP6Z1)

49 Zipperheads

Posted by: Gran Torino SCJ/YXX at December 06, 2010 09:29 AM (mvSlb)

50

Monty, I sense you are a Zero Hedge reader as well.  ;-)

 

Posted by: Vergeltung at December 06, 2010 09:34 AM (jttPx)

51 44:  Yeah.  I've always believed that any US-China war that didn't end with a quick PRC victory would inevitably add a Sino-Russian front, as the ChiComs head for the Siberian resource areas.

The African play is partly about resources...but sooner or later the fact that many of the energy resources are more efficiently obtained from much closer territory will cause troubles.  The history's already there, it's a matter of time.

That being the case, we may get this scenario playing out soon.  They won't face a weaker foe than Obama, and they know it--their best chance at a knockout blow with minimal followup is in the next 2-6 years.  All you need is casus belli, and the PRC isn't quite so fastidious about that sort of thing; NK collapse could be the first domino that sets the whole tragedy in motion.

Posted by: AoSHQ's DarkLord© at December 06, 2010 09:46 AM (GBXon)

52 China can NOT "call in its debt".

That's not how bonds work unless they want to take huge losses. The penalty for early redemption is not insignificant.

Posted by: Nom de Blog at December 06, 2010 10:09 AM (0LABp)

53 China's economy and stability has long been grossly overstated, but then that's what happens when you believe the press of a brutal communist dictatorship. The left used to do it all the time with the Soviet Union; the military believed the Soviets were far more capable and dangerous than they really were.

Posted by: Christopher Taylor at December 06, 2010 01:06 PM (61b7k)

54 We have their stuff.  They have our paper.

Tell me again how this is going to work out for them if they lose our markets? 

Those workers will just leave the factories and go peacefully back to the farms, where they can starve again when harvests are bad.  Or maybe they'll have another cultural revolution and kill all the educated people.  Cambodia, writ large, because that worked out so well.

They could invade North Korea and take the women.

They could produce a whole bunch of things for domestic consumption, but what will they do next month?

There is no way to win, and there are plenty of ways for everyone to lose.

Posted by: MarkD at December 07, 2010 07:28 AM (0Jy1K)

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