March 19, 2010
— Ace Byron York reporting:
he best way to look at it is not to ask whether Speaker Nancy Pelosi has gotten the 216 votes needed to pass the Democrats' national health care bill, but whether opponents have the votes to defeat it.Start with all 178 GOP lawmakers. (There have been rumors that Rep. Joseph Cao, who was the only Republican to vote for the health bill the first time, is wavering, but Cantor says Cao is a firm no.) Beginning the count with 178 Republicans means that opponents need 38 Democrats to vote against the bill for it to be defeated.
...
[I]f there are in fact 32 original Democratic no votes that are still no votes, then Republicans need to find six other Democrats to vote no in order to defeat the bill. Cantor points to one original yes vote that has switched to no -- Arcuri -- and suggests there might be five others who could switch: Berry, Costa, Giffords, Lynch, and Space.
That leaves the much-discussed Stupak Group. The pro-life Democrat originally said he had 12 colleagues who originally voted yes but would now vote no. Stupak has lost some of those, but it is not clear how many.
Cantor suggests that in combining those two categories -- the yeses who have become no plus the Stupak group -- there might be another 12 votes against the bill. "If we add 12 to 32, we get 44 -- which leaves Speaker Pelosi seven votes short," Cantor concludes. Of course, if there are less than 32 original no votes who remain no votes, the margin is tighter.
But that's the problem -- a lot of these "no" votes weren't very serious the first time around.
Posted by: Ace at
02:08 PM
| Comments (96)
Post contains 307 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: Mal at March 19, 2010 02:11 PM (Z+qzA)
No shit. Scratch a Democrat and you'll find Julius fucking Rosenberg.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 02:12 PM (bkIR3)
Posted by: Cat with many cheezburgers at March 19, 2010 02:13 PM (Cxsey)
Posted by: Fish at March 19, 2010 02:14 PM (M5t+h)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at March 19, 2010 02:14 PM (ympF8)
The Dem leadership may be bluffing but sometimes it turns out you are bluffing with the best hand.
Posted by: DrewM. at March 19, 2010 02:15 PM (9B5OK)
I saw Clyburn's statement, and I thought it was a little forced, a little too "keep your head up and act positive." He don't play no poker.
Posted by: rdbrewer at March 19, 2010 02:15 PM (zYWzC)
Posted by: rdbrewer at March 19, 2010 02:15 PM (zYWzC)
He'll be busy 'gator hunting with me as a involuntary passenger in my boat!
I keed, I keed, well maybe not.
Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at March 19, 2010 02:15 PM (NWykk)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 19, 2010 02:15 PM (UOM48)
Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at March 19, 2010 02:16 PM (J46Fi)
Cao will not likely be #216 but he's willing to be #217. I still don't understand why. He stands no chance at re-election. Even if he switches parties.
Might as well play good Republican and hope they gerrymander him a district.
Posted by: AmishDude at March 19, 2010 02:16 PM (Vo2Ef)
Posted by: Fish at March 19, 2010 02:17 PM (M5t+h)
OK, I'm really going now. I can't take this any more! Like I said in an earlier post, thank God I've got some distractions tomorrow! I'm going to be sleepless all weekend, I'm sure, but I've got a race in beautiful Tacoma tomorrow in the a.m., and meeting friends to watch the UW Huskies play New Mexico in the afternoon. Go Dawgs! (Although yesterday's game against Marquette was sooo stressful when they were down 15 points in the second half). I thought geez, when your recreational time is stressful and you're stressed out about the mofos in D.C. destroying America, that's a lot of stress!
Posted by: runningrn at March 19, 2010 02:17 PM (CfmlF)
This is for M80'sB and anyone else who wants to know where Boehner is on this.
I think seeing/hearing Boner speak gives a different impression than just reading what he said today.
Posted by: This is Wallace Shawn at March 19, 2010 02:17 PM (F2qjY)
15 On FB, they said that Reid just promised a vote on public option, but they give no link. Is this true?
Pfft. Reid knows it won't pass cloture.
Posted by: AmishDude at March 19, 2010 02:18 PM (Vo2Ef)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 19, 2010 02:18 PM (UOM48)
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 06:11 PM (bkIR3)
No shit. What is he, principled? Laff.
Posted by: FUBAR at March 19, 2010 02:18 PM (1fanL)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at March 19, 2010 06:18 PM (UOM4
No. And no.
Posted by: AmishDude at March 19, 2010 02:19 PM (Vo2Ef)
Posted by: Degenatron at March 19, 2010 02:20 PM (2hpnI)
Posted by: steevy at March 19, 2010 02:21 PM (F34XL)
This is not a vote-counting event. That already happened. It's a vote-shuffling event. That's probably done, too.
Posted by: oblig. at March 19, 2010 02:21 PM (x7Ao8)
22 is it wrong that I wish Bebe Netanyahu would kick Bambi in the junk, leaving him curled in a fetal position on the Oval carpet, sucking his thumb, and fly back to Israel? And that we could see it live on Fox?
I hope Netanyahu cancels.
Obama is a Palestinian in spirit and his sympathies are exclusive to the Pali cause.
Fuck him.
Posted by: garrett at March 19, 2010 02:21 PM (0UsO5)
I'd like to see someone pull the fire alarm at the capitol.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at March 19, 2010 02:21 PM (ympF8)
Fuck it- he's got a funny name- he's fired anyway. Fuckin' nutless wonder.
Fat lot of good it'll do, but there it is.
I better schedule that colonoscopy before it's too late, lest They decide I'm too old to save.
Posted by: Jones at March 19, 2010 02:21 PM (JL3qV)
I'm sure, but I've got a race in beautiful Tacoma tomorrow in the a.m., and meeting friends to watch the UW Huskies play New Mexico in the afternoon
have a lovely week-end, ignore the political side, it will still exist come monday!
Posted by: willow at March 19, 2010 02:22 PM (7FgWm)
it will be deemed not to have gone off
Posted by: Jones at March 19, 2010 02:22 PM (JL3qV)
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 02:22 PM (bkIR3)
http://tinyurl.com/yh53xnq
Posted by: Joe butterfly at March 19, 2010 02:23 PM (wJ0fD)
And my grandchildren will NOT gro w up in a Third World country.
If I have to join a resistance and hide out in the hills, I will do it.
Posted by: Miss Marple at March 19, 2010 02:23 PM (4DwVn)
Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at March 19, 2010 06:20 PM (NWykk)
We don't talk about "Operation Persian Sunrise".
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 02:23 PM (bkIR3)
God Bless our Troops and their Families, I DO!
Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at March 19, 2010 02:24 PM (NWykk)
so The Framers weren't paranoid after all...
Posted by: Jones at March 19, 2010 02:24 PM (JL3qV)
Fuck these career-politician assholes. They know they've got Nancy by the short hairs (shudder!) - they're just eating up the last bit of celebrity they have left before they get the boot in November.
Posted by: antisocialist at March 19, 2010 02:25 PM (Rwudm)
Posted by: Smapty at March 19, 2010 02:25 PM (bAySe)
That's so much better than what I was seeing on his site. Reading it, he sounded rather dull & defeated.
Thank you!
/Should have thought of YouTube.
Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at March 19, 2010 02:25 PM (J46Fi)
Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at March 19, 2010 02:25 PM (iFG2y)
The Bataan Death March happened in the Philippines in 1942 and was later classified as a war crime.
The Obama Death March happened in America in 2010, and was later classified as a compassionate legislative event by the liberal media.
Posted by: Fish at March 19, 2010 02:26 PM (M5t+h)
Posted by: tdpwells at March 19, 2010 02:26 PM (Ei3oZ)
Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at March 19, 2010 06:24 PM (NWykk)
Amen to that, sir!
Posted by: antisocialist at March 19, 2010 02:26 PM (Rwudm)
Exactly.
Posted by: Christopher Taylor at March 19, 2010 02:26 PM (PQY7w)
We don't talk about "Operation Persian Sunrise".
Nothing more beautiful than a Sunrise north and east of Israel.
Posted by: garrett at March 19, 2010 02:26 PM (0UsO5)
Keep in mind that Hillary! was once inevitable too.
This ain't over till the botoxed harpy sings, let's hope it's a lament.
Posted by: country blumpkin at March 19, 2010 02:27 PM (d7k0J)
Posted by: reginaldL at March 19, 2010 02:27 PM (k6Tcc)
Posted by: Delta smelt at March 19, 2010 02:28 PM (UOM48)
Good old Heath. A fucking Communist who like his job. Am I supposed to fly down and give the asshole a fucking medal?
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 02:30 PM (bkIR3)
"I'm still not convinced the vote will take place on Sunday."
Ditto. They don't have the votes. They won't have the votes on Sun. Please, bring it to the floor for a vote.
Posted by: MDr VB1.0 CS1st at March 19, 2010 02:30 PM (ucq49)
http://bit.ly/9JLEUp
And, if this WaPo chart is correct, if just one of the November "Y" votes flip to "N," then we are done and the good guys will win.
http://bit.ly/aP3Y0P
Posted by: GulfCoastTider at March 19, 2010 02:30 PM (LnbRL)
I really don't know what to make of all this. The votes are changing every 15min. Is this a concentrated effort to paralyze the people paying attention, force them into the corner screaming & crying?
Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at March 19, 2010 02:31 PM (J46Fi)
I saw that story linked on the sidebar and it sickened me to think our president, *spit*, is holding campaign-style rallies against Americans who oppose his agenda.
Obama is not the president of all Americans. He is only the president for the people who agree with him. And that is why his poll numbers keep dropping.
Posted by: This is Wallace Shawn at March 19, 2010 02:32 PM (F2qjY)
Posted by: MDr VB1.0 CS1st at March 19, 2010 06:30 PM (ucq49)
Hate to tell you, but you're wrong. The delay til Sunday is so they can say "72 hours!!1!1!". They have the votes. The "fence sitters" are no such thing, and we're to the windward side of some heavy bribery.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 02:32 PM (bkIR3)
Having enemies among our midst has undermined us many times over the years. It happens occasionally to the Dems., too, but far more to the GOP with the RINOs and other douches that want to look bipartisan.
Posted by: Slappy at March 19, 2010 02:32 PM (ljvjO)
Posted by: Phil at March 19, 2010 02:34 PM (uI4yi)
Is this a concentrated effort to paralyze the people paying attention
Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at March 19, 2010 06:31 PM (J46Fi)
The more confusion they create, the less conservatives can organize and dispel the rumors and falsehoods. It's the "flood the zone" defense.
Posted by: Fish at March 19, 2010 02:34 PM (M5t+h)
Am I a purist if I think Cao and Lindsey Graham are shitbags and should be thrown out of the Republican party?
We're not gonna win shit unless we stop acting like pussies and allow these yellow moderates to stay in the party.
Posted by: This is Wallace Shawn at March 19, 2010 02:35 PM (F2qjY)
/You don't have to be a good person to do the public a service. Just saying.
Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at March 19, 2010 02:35 PM (J46Fi)
MAYBE WE COULD JUST NOMINATE THE MOTHER FUCKER FOR PRESIDENT? HUH?
I didn't leave the Republican party. It left me. And it's way past fucking time for some purity tests.
Q. Are you now, or have you ever been, inclined to vote as a collectivist?
Q. Do you now, or have you ever, believed health care is a "right"?
Q. Explain in fewer than 100 words the 10th Amendment.
Q. Recite the Preamble to the Constitution.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 02:36 PM (bkIR3)
I really don't know what to make of all this. The votes are changing every 15min. Is this a concentrated effort to paralyze the people paying attention, force them into the corner screaming & crying?
Yes. That's exactly what it is. It's the Cloward-Piven way. Overwhelm the opposition and when fatigue sets in, do what you want to do with minimal resistance. This is how many countries are taken over by totalitarian regimes.
Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at March 19, 2010 02:38 PM (iFG2y)
I appreciate your optimism Phil, but we need 67 in the Senate in the next Congress to shit-can a veto. Not gonna happen.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 02:38 PM (bkIR3)
I appreciate your optimism Phil, but we need 67 in the Senate in the next Congress to shit-can a veto. Not gonna happen.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 06:38 PM (bkIR3)
Not only the senate.. a veto takes 2/3rds in BOTH houses.
That is like 300 House seats..
LOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONG shot.
Posted by: Timbo at March 19, 2010 02:42 PM (7GgDy)
Could he be assuming monkey business in the courts too?
Posted by: curious at March 19, 2010 02:43 PM (p302b)
Obama is not the president of all Americans. He is only the president for the people who agree with him. And that is why his poll numbers keep dropping.
Posted by: This is Wallace Shawn at March 19, 2010 06:32 PM (F2qjY)
I agree wholeheartedly, but you shouldn't be surprised. The man-child's only relevant experience was him campaigning to be president, which is why he reverts to doing it so much. The guy would be in over his head if he were serving as a mid-level manager of a medium-sized firm. Of course, if it were a public firm, he could pontificate to the shareholders about what he idiotically calls the "profits-to-earnings" ratio of the company's stock. What a dope.
Posted by: Slappy at March 19, 2010 02:44 PM (ljvjO)
I can't disagree with you. The freakin' GOP moved Left in a country that leans Right, starting a chain reaction in which the most Leftist candidate ever becomes POTUS. Bush's freakin' "compassionate conservatism" and his lack of willingness to fight back against his Left-wing critics put the party and country in this situation.
Posted by: Slappy at March 19, 2010 02:44 PM (ljvjO)
The house can be swung. They're more "reactive" by nature. Senators are all ego and no smarts.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 02:44 PM (bkIR3)
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 06:44 PM (bkIR3)
Agreed on the senators, but we have no idea what the social and economic climate is going to be like after January 2011 when new reps take their seats. I'm not discounting anything, not even with the braindead lefty senators.
Posted by: tdpwells at March 19, 2010 02:48 PM (Ei3oZ)
Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at March 19, 2010 02:48 PM (J46Fi)
Morning wood = Buzzkill
The end times are truely at hand.
Actually, I'm only a contemporary buzzkill. I think the near future looks like shit.
But the medium term looks pretty good, because the corpulent masses appear to have stirred. This "Health Care" bill, which is looking more and more like the "Enabling Acts" or the "Intolerable Acts", has lit a new fire. Near term looks bad. Because this will pass. Telling yourself this won't pass is just foolishness. They are committing sepukku in the midst of a Kamikaze mission, all the time screaming out the name of their man-god Emperor. You don't reason with that shit. You just try not to get splattered.
But they didn't read Yamamoto.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 02:49 PM (bkIR3)
Agree on Lindsey, but...
English is Anh "Joseph" Gao's second language and he struggles sometimes, especially when he's nervous. I don't put much faith in NRO's report that he "hopes to reconsider."
He told WRNO Radio this morning that his Catholic faith could not let him vote for the Senate bill's abortion language, and later told Cantor that he was a reliable "No."
I don't think he's going anywhere.
Posted by: GulfCoastTider at March 19, 2010 02:50 PM (LnbRL)
Fair enough, as that is an awkward phrasing that sounds like an ESL, but he sure as fuck knows the difference between Yea and Nea. His past votes have been highly unreliable.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at March 19, 2010 02:53 PM (bkIR3)
Posted by: Iamnotanalcoholic at March 19, 2010 03:02 PM (iFG2y)
There is absolutely no reason to give up or quit.
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