Ace of Spades HQ

November 23, 2010

Financial News Updates [CDR M]
— Open Blogger

Some interesting financial headlines today:

Teamsters/Unions using "It's for the Children" Battlecry to get their way? I'd say yup.

Gold Bubble? I need me some Monty to put me some knowledge on this.

The Truth About California This guy brings up some good points but I think he's smokin' some of Cali's number one crop.

Sorry I can't post more, gotta get back to work! CDR M, out.

Update
Revised 3rd Quarter Estimates from Hot Air. Revised upward to 2.5% from 2%.

Home Sales drop more than expected Tip from rdbrewer

Posted by: Open Blogger at 05:59 AM | Comments (42)
Post contains 97 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Already O/T, but damn, that pic of the Quaker Oats guy on the sidebar....hil-freaking-larious! The perfect Barbara Bush doppleganger.

Posted by: Lady in Black at November 23, 2010 06:06 AM (M6enm)

2 We'll take California in lieu of the treasuries that you're doing sex to me with.

Posted by: China at November 23, 2010 06:06 AM (NgSbD)

3 Gold probably is in a "bubble" for the short term, but in the long run with the printing of all the money the bubble will deflate. That is the only real "deflation we have.

Yes, Toys R Us, the next Wal-Mart.

CA was on the road to default when that long negotiated budget deal was overridden by the Dems in the legislature. They think they will get a federal bailout. The problem is there is no longer enough of "other people's money" to bail them out.

It is only a matter of time. Let's pray that the Repubs don't fall for the "too big to fail" myth again.

Posted by: Vic at November 23, 2010 06:06 AM (e4sSD)

4 Gold might be a little bubbly right now (maybe by as much as 20%), but it's not nearly as much so as gold bears think it is. Gold is money, and even sovereigns like China and Saudi are stocking up on the barbaric yellow metal to offset the worldwide race to the bottom of fiat currencies. Early 2011 will tell the tale. If the world economy begins to trend back up, then gold will fall back to around $900/$1000 territory. If not...I wouldn't be surprised to see gold hit $2000/oz. And I don't think the world economy is going to tick back up much -- given the European debt crisis and the looming Chinese inflation, not to mention a US/Chinese trade-war, I think it far more likely that gold will continue to appreciate. But that's just me.

Posted by: Monty at November 23, 2010 06:08 AM (4Pleu)

5 The guy pimping CA is definitely whiffing Gov Moonbeam fumes. He sounds like the state's own Kudlow -- "everything's cool, because the fatcats are still raking in the dough!"

At some point the financial "experts" will have to learn the same lesson we ordinary people have had to learn: if you ain't got it, you can't spend it. No amount of mumbo-jumbo can cover up an empty wallet forever.

Posted by: MrScribbler© at November 23, 2010 06:09 AM (Ulu3i)

6 I think it far more likely that gold will continue to appreciate.

But that's just me.
Posted by: Monty at November 23, 2010 10:08 AM

That's MY line, moron!

Posted by: G. Gordon Liddy at November 23, 2010 06:11 AM (Ulu3i)

Already O/T, but damn, that pic of the Quaker Oats guy on the sidebar....hil-freaking-larious! The perfect Barbara Bush doppleganger.

yeah. redbrewer is dead on with that one.

Posted by: Ben at November 23, 2010 06:21 AM (wuv1c)

8 The Teamsters are crazy if they think parents aren't going to Toys R Us to get what their kids want for the holidays. It's just not how it works.

Posted by: Moi at November 23, 2010 06:21 AM (Ez4Ql)

MCCAIN WILL NOT VOTE FOR THE DREAM ACT.....BREAKING ON KFYI 550 AM RADIO! i think i'm going to faint

Posted by: phoenixgirl at November 23, 2010 06:23 AM (Cm66w)

10 Don't tell these union people that they (probably) have PVC water lines installed in their houses.

Posted by: profligatewaste at November 23, 2010 06:23 AM (b3rrc)

11 until the border is secure...he will not entertain comprehensive immigration reform

Posted by: phoenixgirl at November 23, 2010 06:25 AM (Cm66w)

MCCAIN WILL NOT VOTE FOR THE DREAM ACT.....BREAKING ON KFYI 550 AM RADIO! i think i'm going to faint

link?

Posted by: Ben at November 23, 2010 06:25 AM (wuv1c)

13 was on the radio, just now kfyi barry young show

Posted by: phoenixgirl at November 23, 2010 06:26 AM (Cm66w)

14 9

MCCAIN WILL NOT VOTE FOR THE DREAM ACT.....BREAKING ON KFYI 550 AM RADIO! i think i'm going to faint

Posted by: phoenixgirl at November 23, 2010 10:23 AM (Cm66w)

Said it before, he got sucked in by the "La Raza" crowd in 2008, when they didn't vote for him - "Usted estÃ¡ muerto para mÃ!"

Posted by: Radioactive Satellite Of LOVE at November 23, 2010 06:27 AM (LdYLm)

15 this is huge....his office would not commit to his position up until now

Posted by: phoenixgirl at November 23, 2010 06:27 AM (Cm66w)

16 profligatewaste, based on their behavior, I'd guess the Teamsters have lead pipes.

Posted by: Jean at November 23, 2010 06:27 AM (Ja6pC)

17 the writer in the gold article makes a reasonable case, except for this:

If CPI is a good measure of overall inflation

It's not.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at November 23, 2010 06:30 AM (JcRgg)

18 I wonder how the markets will react when Seoul disappears?

Posted by: nevergiveup at November 23, 2010 06:34 AM (0GFWk)

19 Re "update:" I'm sure "Poppin' Fresh" accompanied this so-called news with a statement that "in fairness" he couldn't judge it until he had checked all the crosstabs to see if these economic numbers were some kind of "outlier."

When everything costs more, people have to spend more. That's not "growth," but is rather an attempt to stay afloat. Of course consumer spending didn't increase by anything like the rate at which gubmint spending grew.

In short: more fake numbers from people who have a stake in pimping our failing economy.

Posted by: MrScribbler© at November 23, 2010 06:35 AM (Ulu3i)

20 Good to see the Iraqi Information Minister got a job at MarketWatch.

Posted by: Waterhouse at November 23, 2010 06:36 AM (2YgNG)

21 MrScribbler - I think they have killed the credibility of the numbers at this point, the markets are no longer jumping at data - only when they open the Fed moneybag.

Posted by: Jean at November 23, 2010 06:37 AM (Ja6pC)

22 L.A. TIMES: Lowest ever: Obama job approval sinks to 39%, as even DemocratsÂ’ support melts away.

UPDATE: ObamaÂ’s Approval Rating on Economy at All-Time Low.

Posted at 8:29 am by Glenn Reynolds @ Instapundit

Posted by: maverick muse at November 23, 2010 07:09 AM (H+LJc)

23 Regarding gold: perhaps it is ahead of inflation is that with almost instantaneous communication world-wide, governments are more quickly aware of economic conditions, and are buying gold in a proactive measure rather than as a reaction.

If that is true, gold prices have become a leading indicator of inflation.

Next quarter will tell the tale.

Posted by: Miss Marple at November 23, 2010 07:25 AM (Fo83G)

24 Mr. Arends needs math to tell him that when you spend more than you take in that you have a non-sustainable situation. He probable also needs someone to hold his hand to keep him from walking into walls.

Posted by: Minuteman at November 23, 2010 07:33 AM (502+o)

25 The article about California coming out of its present situation may have some accuracy. The people I know here that are doing well, are REALLY doing well. I mean, their problems are usually of the kind as to what to do with their money. Indeed, they couldn't stop making money if they tried.

Posted by: navybrat at November 23, 2010 07:35 AM (I/Hbl)

26 On California, the two big business engines are high tech and agriculture. Agriculture is barely keeping itself afloat because of determined farmers, but it could be doing much better if the environmentalist got out of the way. As soon as the gov starts regulating software and the internet like they do retail and restaurants, California is done. The internet and software are two industries that don't face really any regulations. Look how they prosper. California does well despite government. Not because of it.

Posted by: Hayeksheroes at November 23, 2010 07:36 AM (4bjXw)

27 Gold Bubble? I need me some Monty to put me some knowledge on this.

The single, unassailable, irrefutable, fact:

All Bubble-Bursts are preceded by a sharp increase in price.

Posted by: franksalterego at November 23, 2010 07:38 AM (+6fgE)

28 25 The article about California coming out of its present situation may have some accuracy. The people I know here that are doing well, are REALLY doing well. I mean, their problems are usually of the kind as to what to do with their money. Indeed, they couldn't stop making money if they tried.

Posted by: navybrat at November 23, 2010 11:35 AM (I/Hbl)

Though there are those who have not been sucked of the last drop of productivity the trend is that California is in a death spiral of overextended obligations to government pensions, excess regulation and a growing uneducated, unassimilated welfare class that will secure the critical mass of a power center. The infrastructure of California has continued to deteriorate over the last 20 years. To me this is an indicator of the general direction the state is taking.

Posted by: Minuteman at November 23, 2010 07:45 AM (502+o)

29 The Teamsters and the group do not offer conclusive proof in their report that the plastic chemicals in question are in the toys, only noting there is a Â“likely presenceÂ” that they are there.
Also, the groupÂ’s report notes it looked at Â“a limited sample from two Toys R Us outlets,Â” 60 toys.

There, in a nutshell, you have a perfect example of what passes for "science" in the libtards' minds: no conclusive proof, only a "likely presence", and insufficient sample size. Which administration is restoring science to its rightful place, again?

Posted by: ya2daup at November 23, 2010 07:50 AM (0AClR)

30 So, let's see: North Korea and South Korea shelling each other. And NK has a much more advanced nuclear program than we thought. Iran talks about impeaching Ahmadinedjad. And Ahmadinedjad says no way the world powers will stop Iran's nuclear program. King Abdullah headed to the hospital here in the US. We are sending tanks to Afghanistan. The VP says on CNN we are telling Afghanistan daddy is going to take of the training wheels. Meanwhile, an impostor represents the Taliban in secret talks on a cease fire. The Dow is going down, gold is going up. So, ummm, are we boned?

Posted by: blaster at November 23, 2010 07:56 AM (MrMxG)

31 The Truth About Californiaby - Brett Arends 2010

Arends used to be a writer over at Jim cramer's The Street, which pretty much tells you all you need to know.

Other ideas of Brett:

...almost [three] years ago, Arends wrote, Â“letÂ’s get one thing clear. The iPhone isnÂ’t the future. It isnÂ’t a revolutionary mobile device ushering in a new era.Â”

and in May of this year he was advising against buying gold.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 23, 2010 08:02 AM (6bDVD)

32 30: For about two years now, yeah. It's just been a case of watching the train wreck in slow motion.

But yeah, I'm not even bothering to find an escape route. When this thing finally ignites, maybe Antarctica won't get touched, though I wouldn't lay odds on that.

Find a good spot and hold on tight. This is a dark ride.

Posted by: AoSHQ's DarkLord© at November 23, 2010 08:06 AM (GBXon)

33 AOSHQDL: So, I used to joke that the best investments were gold, guns, and seeds. Then I joked, yeah, I was joking about that... Err, now, I am thinking not funny anymore. Need some gold, guns, and seeds.

Posted by: blaster at November 23, 2010 08:13 AM (MrMxG)

Posted by: Minuteman at November 23, 2010 11:45 AM

That's what's sketchy about the numbers he uses when it comes to tax dollars going to Washington vs spending coming in. Is he only counting block grants for infrastructure and other projects? California long ago chased out a huge chunk of the Defense industry, particularly the aircraft industry in SoCal which made L.A. the megacity it is today. I have a hunch that Cramer's butt-boy left out entitlement spending, which is a huge hoover of taxpayer cash.

Once upon a time, California's Central Valley was the veggie provider to the world. Now, America has to IMPORT 25 percent of our veggies. Nice fuckin' job there, Brett. Got any venture capitalists who can fund software to grow produce? Speaking of those VC's , I don't know where he's getting his numbers from since everyone else is saying the VC's are only pinching the pennies out of their piggy banks to fund companies already established.

Finally, he can't get around CA's Dead Last by a Mile ranking with business. Where is California's cash to bail the rest of us rubes going to come from, pot sales?

Posted by: kbdabear at November 23, 2010 08:14 AM (vdfwz)

35 @32 "Find a good spot and hold on tight. This is a dark ride." I hear ya. Shelter in place will be my new modus. I just added an AR-7 to my collection since it occurred to me that every rifle or carbine that I presently own would not be good for hunting small critters, since it would make for too many pieces to pick up.

Posted by: navybrat at November 23, 2010 08:18 AM (I/Hbl)

36 Gold isn't in a bubble because gold isn't an investment. It's a safety currency to be used when all the paper money goes plaid (hyperinflation). And when everything collapses the currency will be beans and bullets.

Posted by: Chicago Jedi at November 23, 2010 08:22 AM (WZFkG)

37 Brett Arends is a columnist for MarketWatch and The Wall Street Journal, based in Boston.

Based in Boston? Why isn't he heading for the sunshine if California is on the verge of a New Golden Age?

Businesses and people go where the money is. Brett should check the U-Haul stats for outbound rentals vs inbound rentals.

But if Cramer's Butt-Boy can convince government dependent lefties to swarm into California, I'll tell them all that Griffith Park and Golden Gate Park are full of Skittle Shitting Free Range Unicorns

Posted by: kbdabear at November 23, 2010 08:22 AM (vdfwz)

38 Evidently Arends has not idea what "structural deficit" in a govt budget means. Nor does he, evidently, understand the problem with promising more retirement benefits than can be paid for under even the most rosy scenario.

Actually, I'm not sure what he doe understand. [Does someone have to cash his paycheck for him?]

Posted by: jorgxmckie at November 23, 2010 08:54 AM (290l2)

39 "Gold Bubble" my riffled cracker behind. Even if gold and other precious metals aren't going up in value, purchasing those metals isn't about getting a big ticker tape windfall. It's about trading the unstable, nigh-unto-collapsing federal toilet paper for a stable currency.... gold and silver. We're hurtling towards a complete collapse of the dollar to rival the collapse of the German mark pre WWII.

Posted by: RHJunior at November 23, 2010 09:17 AM (GnKGH)

40 ...and not that Arends bothers to link to any info that supports his California is still the golden state thesis, but here's some actual data from the BEA on Real GDP by State, 2006-2009 BEA 10-53

California
increase/decrease

2006: 3.3
2007: 1.8
2008: 0.0
2009: -2.2

The bulk of that growth in 2006 is no doubt linked to the last stages of the real estate bubble. And that decrease in 2009 is after the federal dollars the feds poured into the state and the imaginary budget and borrow up in Sacramento.

Now take a guess what 2010 and 2011 are going to look like.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at November 23, 2010 09:43 AM (6bDVD)

41 #36 has a point - gold is what Friedman (Milton, not Tommy) described as "a constant store of value."

But in commodity trading, the relationship between the value of the currency and the price of the commodity is not necessarily linear. There is a lot of sales hype promoting gold, too.

The bottom line applies always and to all things: buying something at or near its all-time high price is a recipe for losing money most of the time.

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