1 So when is Opie coming to town with some of his STASH.

2 I got some of Obama's stash today. Good stuff man. Good stuff *cough* *cough

3 So where's the damn polls?

4 The possibility of defections/crossovers is pretty high IMO.

Also, special elections are freaky when it comes to turn out. Obviously GOP/conservatives/tea party types are motivated to vote. Will Democrats be?

A crazy turnout ratio could be a big problem for Democrats.

Still, D+15 is a hell of a hill to climb.

5 I understand that's a heavily Jewish district.  Let's see if they approve of Obama throwing Israel under the bus.

6
Speaking of harbingers...

In Massachusetts we have what's shaping up to be a 3-way race. Last year when Gov Patrick had a 29% approval, I said how Deval Patrick goes in 2010, Obama goes in 2012.

Patrick is polling at 35%, Baker (R) ~25%, and Cahill (conservative-leaning I) also ~25%. Patrick might win because these two shitheads will stay in the race. The same thing can happen in 2012. I think we'll have an Independent candidate enter the race in 2012 and fuck things up for us.

Anyway, the governor's race in Massachusetts should be watched closely.

7 Still, D+15 is a hell of a hill to climb.

Posted by: DrewM. at April 09, 2010 02:36 PM (9B5OK)

Whiner.

8
So where's the damn polls?

Posted by: Editor at April 09, 2010 02:35 PM (pUfK9)

Right next to us.

9 PA,

Is this a Black district or just old Yankee Joos?

If they don't have the brothers, I think they are toast.

10 This district is like New York for the Repubs

"If they can make it here, they can make it any-where......."

Special elections are by nature......well, special, but they can be harbingers of What Is To Come ( in less than seven months ).   As for 'where are the polls?' , polling cost mucho money and the only polls you're probably gonna get are the local paper--which will be CRAP

A few years ago, the Tampa Tribune poll said that Jeb Bush and his opponent for gov were in a 'dead heat.  Bush won by 15 points.

11
Wexler's was getting 65%? Wow that's a big hurdle to jump no matter how unpopular Obama's agenda is. Barney Frank gets about 65%, too. And there's a rumor floating Frank won't run again. I don't believe it for a second because Frank, even if he was caught in bed with a dead boy, would easily win reelection.

12 Well, there wasn't much Stimulus love spread around in this district from what I can tell driving around.  Its loaded with angry retirees who aren't happy about ObamaCare pulling $500B from MediCare, and there are zero construction jobs available in what was a booming construction area previously.

This might just be the perfect storm of demotivators for Democrats.

13 Early turnout is strong according to PbPost.  That means people are upset right?  Anti-Obamacare voters right?  How's my "logic"?

Anyways, don't worry.. once Col West wins in FL-22.. he will march on FL-19 and annex it.

14

The same thing can happen in 2012. I think we'll have an Independent candidate enter the race in 2012 and fuck things up for us.

Or to put it another way, the Republican will enter the race and fuck things up for us.  Not that I'm all independent-y, but the Republican party isn't exactly wowing us right now, and there are Republican candidates that IMO need to make room for the better conservative candidate.

15
Keep in mind, even Ted Kennedy and John Kerry didn't enjoy winning by 30-point margins. Close, but never quite that big of a margin when they had challengers.

16 I understand that's a heavily Jewish district.  Let's see if they approve of Obama throwing Israel under the bus.
Posted by: dan in michigan at April 09, 2010 02:38 PM (9jRMu)


Don't count on it. American Jews support Obama on Israel according to this poll.

Now the White House diss came after the survey but given everything else that's happened in the last year, I wouldn't be on a big shift now.

17 This is an AWFULLY heavy Dem district. I hope you're right but am not counting on it. Think we have better chances in Hawaii.

18 I live in the district.  There are scattered signs for the candidates around town but other than that it doesn't seem that an election is talking place.  I got one phone computerized phone call from the third party candidate but I have not heard anything else on tv or radio.  In part I think that this is because in 7 months we will have another election so both parties are saving their money for the big show.  I ultimaley believe that all the old people down here and there are thousands of them will continue to vote for the democrat because that is what they do.

19 Good heavens I can imagine the headlines now if the Republican wins "Republicans Lynch Democrats"  "Hang 'em High - Lynch wins!"  "Dark days in Florida as a Democrat is Lynch'd".

I know, those are pretty lame, I leave it to the far cleverer members of the Moron Horde to come up with their own.

20 I don't believe it for a second because Frank, even if he was caught in bed with a dead boy, would easily win reelection.

Actually I think has been caught in bed with a dead boy.

21 Think we have better chances in Hawaii.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at April 09, 2010 02:44 PM (CJOrs)

Well, doing the ground research is a hard job, but someone's got to do it.  So, I'm headed there, this evening.

22 This might just be the perfect storm of demotivators for Democrats.

Posted by: Purple Avenger at April 09, 2010 02:42 PM (C9/2x)

Perfect Storm here means a likely Perfect Storm nationwide in Nov.  If retired Jewish refugees from New York and New Jersey sit this one out or vote Repbub, the Dems are doomed.  

'Doomed, I say; doomed'.  They are in danger of not only losing a lotta seats, but also losing their increasingly-fake 'identity' as a Big Tent moderate-left party of the Little Guy.

They get revealed as the party of leftist loons and welfare spongers

23 Is this a Black district or just old Yankee Joos?

The 19th is heavy both. 

However, the area where I live is about 80% black and all the Obama bumper stickers are GONE, so I'd say they're probably demotivated.  There's a large contingent of middle class retired Jewish folks in DelRay at the Kings Point condo development.  No millionaires living there.  If the MediCare thing flips/demotivates them sufficiently, that one development alone (its huge) could flip the whole district.

24
Wait a minute! Lynch mighta wrapped up the jewish vote.

I AM HONORED TO HAVE RECEIVED ENDORSEMENTS from retired U.S. Military leaders, grassroots organizations, city officials, columnists and other notable citizens such as comedian, Jackie Mason.

25

OT: Bad news for Moronettes. Could this be the end of Stompy Boots and Stilettos?  Will ObamaCare outlaw them due to the potential for injury?

Women risk snapped ligaments for shoe fashion http://bit.ly/8YWmIh

26 Still, D+15 is a hell of a hill to climb.

Posted by: DrewM. at April 09, 2010 02:36 PM (9B5OK)

I've never understood the rationale behind Cook's methodology for calculating PVIs... why it makes any sense to weight the partisan lean of a specific district relative to that of the entire country, rather than as an absolute value. So I just averaged the results of the last two presidential elections in FL-19... came up with D+32.

27
Lies.  Cahill is a registered Democrat and is running in the race to split the opposition. 

That may be, but if he's lying, he's a damn good liar. Yeah, there's the possibility he's running as a spoiler. But if he is, he's playing the part to a tee. And it might work.

In other words, Cahill is running as a Scott Brown clone and enough people are buying into it to give us another 4 years of Devil Patrick.

28

Well, doing the ground research is a hard job, but someone's got to do it.  So, I'm headed there, this evening.

Posted by: Editor at April 09, 2010 02:46 PM (pUfK9)

Now that Stupak's retiring, I'm going to head up to Mackinac Island to gauge our chances in MI-01. My research strategy is to check into a quaint old hotel, dress up in elephant pajamas, and lie on the bed chanting to myself "A Republican will win the Stupak seat. A Republican will win the Stupak seat. The date is November 2nd, 2010, and right this moment in this very district a Republican is winning this seat."

Then I'll get up and wander around with a big grin on my face, secure in the knowledge that my self-hypnotization has carried the day in MI-01 and I think I'll just reach into my pocket for the flask to celebrate and pull out OH JESUS NO DON'T LOOK AT THAT PENNY!!!

29

30 #24
PA thanks, sounds like an uphill battle, but we can always live the dream.

31 So is this the lynch Deutch election?

32

Yeah, the Mass Mugging / Nevada Negation strategy:  Run a fake 'independent' to drain off Republican votes from real independents ( such as they are )

33 My previous post at 31 was rejected as 'spam'.  I don't do spam

unless it's 'spam spam spam spam spam spam spam'  like in Monty Python

34

I sent $20 each to Lynch and Dan Benishek the night of the Health Care Rape,  I don't know why Stupak pissed me off so badly as I'm generally RINOish on abortion and drugs. 

35 The comment that Cahill is a registered Dem running to split the vote is correct. Voters in this district were unhappy with Wexler, which is why the dirt came out on him about his address and why he dropped out, taking a job  at a Middle Eastern policy NP (payoff from Obama.) Wexler was an early Obama supporter in an area largely loyal to Hillary. Everyone knows Obama had Wexler and Crist to thank for not having Florida's votes counted in the 2008 primary. Crist figured he was popular enough that he could count on the Republican base then pick up some Dems in a Senate run "that seat is fucking gold!" He figured wrong. Fuck Crist. Fuck Wexler. Fuck the Democrats. This seat is competitive, and it would be more so, if Republicans weren't idiots.

36 "Republicans Lynch Democrats!" is just about what you would expect.

37 Bad news for Moronettes. Could this be the end of Stompy Boots and Stilettos?  Will ObamaCare outlaw them due to the potential for injury?

Come for my donuts, I'll punch you in the face.  Come for my stilettos and you'll get a heel through the eye.

Back in the days when I could wear 4-6 inch stilettos without falling over and dying, I always wore them when going out.  Not so much for the fashion but because you can kill someone with a stab through the eye, eardrum or side of neck.  See!  They are practical. 

38 Lynch's fundraising not promising.

39 Back in the days when I could wear 4-6 inch stilettos without falling over and dying, I always wore them when going out.  Not so much for the fashion but because you can kill someone with a stab through the eye, eardrum or side of neck.  See!  They are practical. 

Posted by: alexthechick at April 09, 2010 03:20 PM (8WZWv)

Pretty sure Rule 34 applies here.

40 "Still, D+15 is a hell of a hill to climb."

Tell it to Scott Brown.

41

How come there has been little national visibility and buzz about this until 4 days before the date?

Maybe the Republicans need some kind of national committee that could make sure the excitement and attention gets genned up for things like this sooner than at the last minute?  They could call it the "Republican National Committee" or something like that.  Too bad the Pubbies never thought of that, forcing bloggers and Tea Partiers to do the awareness-raising and money-bombing in crisis mode.

42

Back in the days when I could wear 4-6 inch stilettos without falling over and dying, I always wore them when going out.  Not so much for the fashion but because you can kill someone with a stab through the eye, eardrum or side of neck.  See!  They are practical. 

Posted by: alexthechick at April 09, 2010 03:20 PM (8WZWv)

Pretty sure Rule 34 applies here.

Actually, Robocop 2 did it (well, a hooker in Robocop 2... um, appearing in... Ah... screw it), and I'm sure it's in plenty of gore fests. 

43

All I know is we've got lifelong yellow dogs around here who are vowing to vote a straight Republican ticket in November, and (hold on to your seats) "possibly for good" (that was a direct quote, and not just from one source).  They feel as though their party has sold them out and gone commie, and they are very pissed off.

It isn't a question of the Dems winning those votes anymore; it's a question of can the Republicans lose them?  These people are ready to jump ship in a big way; there isn't much the Dems can do to get them back in the fold right now, judging from the general attitude.

44 I live in So. Fla. also and have met Ed Lynch on many occasions. He needs to be on Hannity and FAST!!! He needs donations! He's a good guy with lots of good ideas. He has common sense and is willing to say things that aren't politically correct. It'll be a damned shame if he can't pull this out. On a side note, I have a lot of Jewish friends down here and for the life of me, I can't figure them out. For people who are supposedly 'smart', most of them have their heads up their asses!

45 But even if the Republican looses, they have to do it all over in November right?

46 I concur. We just returned from our condo in Lk Worth and the natives are restless. Lynch is going to win big IMO.

47 As a Jew I can tell you that most none religious Jews do have there heads up their asses. Nixon was right: "do American Jews have a death wish"

48 As a Jew I can tell you that most none religious Jews do have there heads up their asses. Nixon was right: "American Jews have a death wish."

Whistling past the graveyard coupled with survivors remorse.

49 PA,
From the looks of the district map, this whole district seems to be west of I95, right? If it is, that makes your black/middle class jooos in the district kinda spot on. My dad lived there til he died in 94. If the district was EAST of I95, then it would be the rich wasps/joooos. This will be kind of hard for a Republican to win, especially since it is +15 D.

That being said, Virginia went from Bush(04) +3 to Obama(0 +6 to McDonnell(09) +18. Obama had a 9% turn, McDonnell had a 24% turn. So it can be done, hopefully.

Nice thing if Lynch wins this, the Dems will have to commit resources to win this back in November, if Lynch doesn't, then the Dems don't have to spend as much there. A win today could help knock off some vulnerable Dems in Nov.

50 Shit, that little smiley douche on my post was supposed to be an 8. F'n intertubes. Why can't the intertubes have a keyboard like an old IBM Selectric.

51

Wrote to Lynch earlier in the week asking if he had poll numbers and received no reply.  Of course, I did the same for the other two special elections, Hawaii's Charles Djou and PA's race to replace Murtha and also got no response.

Picking up any or all of these seats is extremely important.  It sets up the atmosphere for Regime Change 2010.

We should do a Scott Brown and toss a few bucks into their piggy banks.

52

Incidentally, in case you're interested....

May 18th is the special election to replace the late, if not great, John Murtha in western PAÂ’s 12 District.  Tim Burns is the Republican.

http://tinyurl.com/y8s6hwr

Next is Charles Djou, in Hawaii, who is running against two Democrats for a special election on May 22nd.  http://www.djou.com/

 

53 From the looks of the district map, this whole district seems to be west of I95, right?

Yea, largely inland running south down into Broward a bit.  This isn't "limousine liberal" or raving progressive moonbat country at all. 

54 PA, I live south of the district and have been making calls for the Lynch campaign: hope to see you, maybe even sans pseudonym, at one of the events this weekend.  Anecdotally, all the enthusiasm appears to be on our side, which is a big deal in terms of turnout in an off-year special election.  Also remember that early voting has already started.

Anyone else in the district, please go vote for Ed Lynch!

55

Unfortunately in a district with a lot of retirees there are people bordering on senility who are targets for SEIU - present in many assisted living facilities and nursing homes.  ACORN may also be involved in senior centers and at subsidized retirement housing.   In 2008, my Mom, age 98, lived in a unionized facility in Minnesota.  Barry Obama could have been a nice Irish Catholic boy for her grasp of current events.  Someone at the home took her to vote. Mom had become highly suggestible and I can guess what she was told.  Here in the Kingdom of Madison there was a deathbed political conversion several years ago.  Shortly after a near comatose man was moved into a local hospice he changed his registration to this county, from Republican to Democrat and cast a primary ballot!  They couldn't have done it neater in Cook County, Illinois. 

If you have a family member whose judgement is imparied by age, be alert. The offer Mom gets at the senior center of a ride to go early vote so she won't inconvenience her children may come with a session of arm twisting, scare tactics and lies.  Let the nursing home staff know how upset you will be if anyone except family takes a loved one to vote.  Better yet, apply for an absentee ballot for them on the first possible day and assist them in filling it out.  Remember that sending it back with most of the races blank because they are unsure will preclude someone else from voting in their name. You may also want to check with your local Republican party between now and November if they need help monitoring early voting at nursing homes. 

56

thank you ...

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57

Is it just me, or is the Replica Watch spam less irritating than a post from someguy?

58 So, Deutch is pronounced like "douche," right?

59 Dude, you're right up the road: when are you putting out an all-hands call for a Moron meet up?