1 Good! I'm glad you're taking some time off. Your posts, while infinitely informative and relevant, are about as welcomed as cat piss in my morning coffee. I'm just sayin...

2 could someone else pick up the morning financial posting?  I learn much from this.

3 Monty, if you read anything today, read this.

4 I look forward to your daily dose of doom Monty and will miss it when it's gone.  Please hurry back.

5 "I do think that America should focus far more on giving all students a better grounding in STEM, but normalizing gender-discrimination seems like a bad way to go about it."

I've been an engineer for going on 30 years now and from what I've seen you either "get" this stuff or you don't.  People who "get" it should be encouraged to pursue it regardless of their gender and people who don't should be encouraged to do other things.

Forcing people who don't have an affinity for technology into technical careers simply to satisfy some quota is stupid and dangerous.

Which is why I'm sure the Obama administration is behind it 100%- stupid and dangerous seems to be what they do best.

6 Monty, wanted you to know that your financial posts have been some of the best I've seen, not just on this blog but on any.  The links you collect are amazingly comprehensive, and I've made them required reading each day you put them out.  Understand why you need a break, but want you to realize that your work *Has* been appreciated!!!

7 Thanks for all your hard work Monty...hope to see you back soon.

8 I could not get the Title IX link to work. Please tell me that the government is not doing a cramdown on quotas for science and math class now.

Wash Post:

They could have at least said "thank you" first.

Can anyone imagine them saying the same thing about the Bush admin?  I swear, the MFM really has become a parody of themselves.

9 I forgot to put the URL behind the STEM-story link; sorry about that. I also forgot where I found it! Even more sorry. A bit of Googling or Binging will find it, though. And it's not a story that we haven't all heard before. Thanks for all the kind words, too. I'm glad my posts were of some use. I'll pull the old girl out of drydock sometime in September when things start hopping financially again and I'm on top of my own workload a bit more.

10 #3, dude I just had this talk with a good old boy what been in the mortgage racket for 50 years. I reprint his email for the education of the moron nation my friend…. those are good questions and I can only give you my opinion…. First this last recession has effected the entire world economy especially Europe . I am not sure the Euro/US will ever see the high flying times we had in the previous 15 years prior to this mess. People (including almost everyone I know) have lost retirement and assets. We have 80 million “Baby Boomers” At the end of their earning careers coming on line (300,000 to 500,000 per month) are turning 65….This is a big loss of revenue as well as a strain on government money and the housing market (downsizing)…… (also similar in Europe ) As more people “walk on their homes” (now estimated at 14 million) just to salvage some assets I think it will get much worse. (commercial also) I hate to be a doom and gloom but I think everyone should think financial survival and do what they need to get Liquid and have some savings to ride this out…. I am thinking probably 10 years as we have not made any progress in the past 3 years as the economy and housing market still deepens. xxxxxxxx and I are dumping all our property and even most likely will short sale our home… If you are reading many of the economic newsletters you will see they agree with me. Please call if you ever want to discuss this in detail.

11 And yes, thanks Monty. We will miss the morning doom thread. 

I had to come back and review the posts from yesterday after I signed off yesterday. I was saddened to see that we had a turd that wanted to start a flame war over derivatives. My God I can understand the flame war over the war of 1861, but derivatives???

But rest assured Monty, the rest of us appreciate it.

12

hey now Bury, Harried, and Frau Botox have just passed a bill that will soon be law that the unions get a major say in bankibng from now on......

 

"what could go wrong?'

13

Thanks Monty.

I always loved your posts.

14 Looks like a flood of foreclosures are coming soon.  As I suspected, the various State and Federal efforts to forestall foreclosure are all expiring at roughly the same time and the dam has burst.  As with Cash for Clunkers, these programs have only delayed the inevitable.

You can expect soon that some nitwit in the MSM will file a story about real estate sales and how they have gone up (in the same way that sales will go up when the owner puts the "Going out of business - 50% off" sign in the window).

This will drive down value and bring more people into walk away range.  More defaults, more foreclosures, and the dance goes on.

Thanks for these posts Monty, I will miss them.

15 2 could someone else pick up the morning financial posting?  I learn much from this.

Posted by: kelley in virginia at July 16, 2010 07:25 AM (jRcMS)

I stopped reading them, my ignorance is blissfull. Ever notice how happy Sheila Jackson is?

 

 

  

16 Thanks for everything, Monty.  Good luck and hurry back - we need you.

17 My God I can understand the flame war over the war of 1861, but derivatives??? Ah, yes old "Ted Kennedy's Gristle Encased Head". He's a finance guy of some kind (or used to be), and disagrees with my contention that most derivatives are just a way for middlemen to skim the cash off of every transaction involving a security. It's nothing new -- the debate has raged for decades as to what (if any) real value derivative instruments provide to the investor. From my point of view, the answer is "almost none". They are badly skewed to the seller, and often exist only to enrich the middlemen in any financial transaction: investment bankers, bond-traders, brokers. Some derviatives are necessary and usefull; futures contracts, for example. But it's a continuum -- I'm less certain about put/call contracts, and still less so about short-selling. And I'm convinced that many of the more byzantine vehicles, like the notorious CDS, are just awful by design. The whole idea behind the CDS was that it would hedge your risk in case of a catastrophic default; instead, the CDS failed right along with the security it was supposedly hedging against, and together they nearly brought the whole house down. But finance guys love derivatives because a) it takes a sophisticated (read: rich) investor to understand them; and b) finance guys can charge fat fees for working with them because their complexity intimidates non-professionals. I find this corner of the finance-world a pretty greasy place, actually -- like some junk-bond bucket shop where fat guys in sweat-stained shirts hawk junk bonds to Grandma and Grandpa. Finance guys put a gloss of sophistication on it, but it's just gambling -- and with other people's money.

18 Thanks Monty, I'm mostly just a lurker 'round here, but the financials briefs were must reads. Bring'em back soon.

19 NOOOO!!  I look forward to the Daily Financial Briefing everyday as I get to work groggy and optimistic at 7am.  It puts me in the right frame of mind (namely, apocalyptic) to be the critical, nasty taskmaster I need to be on the job.

I look forward to the return of your doom and snark.  Best of luck with your projects coming up!

20

Monty I enjoyed your posts, but it feels a lot like Ogabe and the war.....

 

it doesn't matter that we point out reality when you have a biased media and the public refusing to hold the jugeared freak.....

 

US losses have nearly doubled in their rates....

 

remember Bush at the end of his first term was "herbert hoover' because funemployment was what 5.6%....but JJugears creeping to 10% is well "recovery summer!"

21

Monty, can you give us a parting shot on the residential housing market in Las Vegas.

I'm thinking of making a financial move on the Single Family Residential (SFR) and Multi family units there. I don't think we have seen the bottom yet, but I think we are within a year of the bottom.

What say you, good sir?

22 He's a finance guy of some kind (or used to be)

Ah, it is a lot clearer now.  case of the personal Ox being gored.

23
I like these financial briefings.

24

Thanks for these daily posts, Monty.  Never before have I so much looked forward to reading about bad news.  Finish what you're working on and get back to providing us with our daily infor-tainment!

25

NOTICE: I'm going to be putting the Daily Financial Briefing on hiatus for a while.

No more daily doom and gloom?  Drat.  Well at least I can be reasonably certain that the economy is still going to stink on ice, even without the daily financial brief.

Illinois has a higher debt default risk than Iceland, which is pretty surprising given that Illinois is a US state whereas Iceland is a sovereign nation with an even lousier growth-picture than the US in coming years.

Wow, that is surprising, considering that Iceland's only export is people wanting to get the hell out of Iceland.  Then again maybe not, considering that Illinois only export is corrupt liberal politicians.

The Dread Lord of Evil, His Dark Majesty, has deigned to speak with you worthless turds yet again.

Dad called?  Cool.  Oh wait, that's not Dad. 

26 Isn't there a better unemployment metric, the non farm workers something or other

27 Monty, can you give us a parting shot on the residential housing market in Las Vegas.

If one wants to judge local market conditions for real estate just look at the price of housing per square foot. If it is going up the market is good, if going down the market is bad.

Another item is gross profit on new construction. When the market is good the general rule of thumb around here used to be add the cost of building materials and the lot to the original construction costs for total price. IOW, if the total bill of materials costs $50K and the lot costs $10K the overall asking price of the house will be $110K in a good market. (note that is a good market, not the inflated market we had before 200 .   

28 Thanks, Monty!  I appreciate all the work you've done to put together these nuggets of information.  I have found them extremely interesting.

I think I am going to start pulling out of equities starting today.  Any suggestions where to put my paltry funds besides Schwab's money market?

Thank you again, sir!

29 Monty, Thanks!

30

28,

I have a three letter word for you, Canada.

31 I too will miss your financial musings and thank you for them. Catch you later!

32

Posted by: Vic at July 16, 2010 08:23 AM (/jbAw)

Thanks Vic. I'm good on the fundamentals; I was more concerned about how overbuilt that place is these days. What do you know about that?

33 ON a related front I see that Republicans are already calling for that abortion of a finance bill to be repealed. However, I don't see any calls for stripping the ME sisters and Brown of committee assignments after voting for it.

I mean, what could be wrong with a finance bill that does the opposite of its stated purpose. It should be obvious that if you want to pass a new law to keep your house from being burglarized after the fact that you do not get the original burglar to write the bill.

Piss Clodd should be in jail, not the Senate.

34

NOTICE: I'm going to be putting the Daily Financial Briefing on hiatus for a while.

Tell the truth, Monty; now that Frankendodd's monster of a bill has passed (thanks to RINO pretty boy Scott Brown and the two Maine whores who never read the fucking thing but get all wet in their otherwise dusty, barren nether regions when they see the word **reform** on something) the economy will even go further in the shitter and the news will just be uniformly bad.

35

Pfft...but have you won a Nobel Prize, Monty?

  

36 What do you know about that?

The only real estate I am familiar with out West now is the Bay Area and it is still way overpriced.

However, this site shows the market in Vegas is collapsing.

http://tinyurl.com/32pwstb

37

I think I am going to start pulling out of equities starting today.  Any suggestions where to put my paltry funds besides Schwab's money market?

Ammo, canned foods and zombie repellant?

38 I'm looking for a way to profit from my writing of erotic fantasy fiction featuring Dame Judy Dench.

I'm up to six volumes right now.

39 Farewell and adieu Monty. Enjoyed the run while it lasted.

40 However, this site shows the market in Vegas is collapsing.

http://tinyurl.com/32pwstb

Posted by: Vic at July 16, 2010 08:35 AM (/jbAw)

Excellent!

Thanks Vic. 

41

37,

Ammo lots and lots of ammo.

42

 I'm looking for a way to profit from my writing of erotic fantasy fiction featuring Dame Judy Dench.

Think the best your going to do there is put it on Ebay - and advertise it as kindling.

Of course if you can find a way to make it into a screen play that blames Bush for everything, you might be able to sell it to some retard like Oliver Stone.  Just a thought.

 

43 37

I think I am going to start pulling out of equities starting today.  Any suggestions where to put my paltry funds besides Schwab's money market?

Ammo, canned foods and zombie repellant?

Posted by: Stuck On Stupid at July 16, 2010 08:35 AM (e8T35)

I find porn to be a sound investment....relaxing too!

 

44 33 ON a related front I see that Republicans are already calling for that abortion of a finance bill to be repealed. However, I don't see any calls for stripping the ME sisters and Brown of committee assignments after voting for it.

I mean, what could be wrong with a finance bill that does the opposite of its stated purpose. It should be obvious that if you want to pass a new law to keep your house from being burglarized after the fact that you do not get the original burglar to write the bill.

Piss Clodd should be in jail, not the Senate.

Posted by: Vic at July 16, 2010 08:31 AM (/jbAw)

That's a damn good point. Republicans who vote for things that will very likely cause HORRENDOUS damage to our nation are not censured, but God help someone like Rep Barton who is misinterpreted as being sympathetic to BP and he needs to be stripped of his committee assignments!

One issue affects the well being of the nation. The other only affects the election chances of politicians. It is easy to see where the priorities lie in today's Republican party.

45 Monty, did you get fired by Ace? Were you trying to unionize the co-bloggers into the Local 8 Hobofitters?

46 DOOM! is a registered trademark of Killface Industries, you Philistines!

47

a related front I see that Republicans are already calling for that abortion of a finance bill to be repealed. However, I don't see any calls for stripping the ME sisters and Brown of committee assignments after voting for it.

I think everyone here needs to resign themselves to the fact that the Republicans will not repeal one thing passes in the last two years, in the same way the Democrats didn't repeal the Patriot Act or anything the Republicans passed during the Bush years.

All of the bills passed give the government more power, why would the republicans want to give that back once they are in control?

I hate having to be one of those 'both parties suck' people, but they are both in the profession of seeking and holding power. Don't be suprised in 2011 if the republicans can't or don't get anything done. I am just hoping they prevent Obama from getting anything else done.

48

Tell the truth, Monty; now that Frankendodd's monster of a bill has passed (thanks to RINO pretty boy Scott Brown and the two Maine whores who never read the fucking thing but get all wet in their otherwise dusty, barren nether regions when they see the word **reform** on something) the economy will even go further in the shitter and the news will just be uniformly bad.

Can't we just saw off Maine and let it float away to Canada, like Bugs Bunny did to Florida?

49 Monty,

Be careful out there and don't let that scanner see the  "Big Boy".

It's great work you do for the "little people"  keep it up!

50 In this economy workload is a good thing.

51

Posted by: jenny at July 16, 2010 08:52 AM (qewD

Please die, quickly and painfully.

52 We will certainly miss your morning financial briefings, Monty.

53 Ben Isn't there a better unemployment metric, the non farm workers something or other IRS quarterly payroll tax reciepts -- that the real number. If you want to pay for it, there are private employment estimates.

54 USGS 3.7....look at the maps, the next to last map is fascinating...

drudge and  WTOP

55 OT: Bachmann to Start House Caucus to Promote the American Peoples' Priorities

http://tinyurl.com/2cfbqt3

Today, U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann filed paperwork to start a House Tea Party Caucus to promote AmericansÂ’ call for fiscal responsibility, adherence to the Constitution, and limited government.

"The American people are speaking out loud and clear. They have had enough of the spending, the bureaucracy, and the government knows best mentality running rampant today throughout the halls of Congress. This caucus will espouse the timeless principles of our founding, principles that all Members of Congress have sworn to uphold," Bachmann stated. "The American people are doing their part and making their voices heard and this caucus will prove that there are some here in Washington willing to listen."

---------

Caucus rumbles to begin soon. Get yer popcorn!

56

Ben Isn't there a better unemployment metric, the non farm workers something or other IRS quarterly payroll tax reciepts -- that the real number. If you want to pay for it, there are private employment estimates.

uh i just did my companies quarterly taxes. Not fun at all.  The area I am in just switched tax collection companies and the new company is either retarded or still learning the ropes.

I didn't receive the tax forms for Local EIT or LST until 2 days before it was due. Then they send out a letter saying the LST changed from a one time 10 dollar fee to 52 dollars evenly divided from each employees check over the course of the year. The letter said this went into effect Jan 1, 2010. i didn't received the letter or documents until the end of April.

 

57

July 16 (Bloomberg) -- The cost of living in the U.S., excluding food and energy prices, climbed in June more than forecast, easing concern that a slowdown in growth will spur deflation.

The so-called core rate of the consumer-price index increased 0.2 percent, the most since October and exceeding the 0.1 percent gain projected by the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, figures from the Labor Department showed today in Washington.

Nothing says Recovery Summer like higher unemployment and prices!!! And the best thing is it's all so unexpected

58

Well, at least now I can get back to worrying about things that really matter, like Lindsay Lohan and what the hell the NAACP thinks.

But I agree with you. There is some real heavy work coming real soon, and you're gonna need to be rested and recharged, so enjoy and get ready. Thanks for all you do.

59 Today, U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann filed paperwork to start a House Tea Party Caucus to promote AmericansÂ’ call for fiscal responsibility, adherence to the Constitution, and limited government.

Look for poor Michele to climb to the top of the NAACP's racist watchlist by this afternoon.

60 Posted by: curious at July 16, 2010 09:01 AM (p302b)

Too bad it wasn't a magnitude 10.0 centered on the capitol building while voting on the financial bill.

We may have a chance to take back the Senate then.

61 Look for poor Michele to climb to the top of the NAACP's racist watchlist by this afternoon.

She's probably already at the top.

62 Monty, you are a perfectionist.  I remember reading yesterday's thread and thinking "wow, monty is so thorough and well researched, this must have taken him hours to compile and I have to remember to tell him how much I appreciate his work" and then, for me, it was one of those days and alas, no post of appreciation.  So just want you to know that I have appreciated your posts immensely.  Maybe you can do what gabe does with the healine thread...just put up the financial thread with one snarky comment underneath and let us run with it?   then, if you have time, you can review the thread and comment on some of the salient stuff?  Just a thought, better to have 5% of monty than no monty at all.  A couple of weeks ago, when ace wasn't around much, he really made me realize how much I appreciate his posts.  Of course I love to read all the co bloggers but when Ace wasn't posting so much you missed those posts. 

63 She's probably already at the top.

Well, then look at it as an ancillary vote of confidence.

64 I knew it was too good to be true. I wake up every morning excited about a new Financial Briefing and come to depend on its guidance, perspicacity and general light hearted whistling past the graveyard and now its gone. Its Twin Peaks all over again.

65 Thanks, Monty! I too thought you a doom-scented Black Cloud in the universe. At first. But then I realized you were underestimating the scope of the disaster, trying to break the bad news gently.

In short, you done good, and I'm waiting for the return of your morning doses of hemlock.

In contrast to the dog turds who see life in terms of the theories of the political "game" (Ed "Pillsbury Doughboy" Morrissey, Jonah Goldberg) and the blinkered slaves to a corrupt finance-by-Ponzi Scheme system (Kudlow), you are a necessary and welcome realist.

Hurry back, dude!

66 I just finished four years of biochemistry and I can tell you one thing: No amount of pushing will turn a mathophobe into a scientist. Our department was littered with the daughters of privilege and the daughters of diversity who thought a diploma from a good school would get them into med school. They scraped through two semesters of calculus with grades inflated to passing level, then dropped their sophomore maths classes when they found themselves drowning.

If you can't 4.0 every maths class your degree requires, you should not be in a STEM program. This idea that women who have a natural talent for math get sidetracked by socialization? Total bullshit.

67 I was just joshin' Monty in my prior sock post. You've done a fine job, sir.

68

The pussies in Washington are mewling about a 3.6 earthquake. Novices!

Thank you Monty, and I will be looking forward to the return of our daily doom and gloom in September.  I never miss it and like your signature stylings.

69 Monty, bravo on a job well done. Bad effin' news with whipped cream and a cherry. Good thing there are no opiates in my house after reading your analysis.

70 curious - next to last map because it puts the quake under DoE Germantown?

71 I look forward to Monty's triumphant return!

72

Thank you Monty, I've looked forward to your postings.  Please consider doing a post on August 13.  I would dearly love to have your marker on that date, and, approximately, a month after.  I am not an economist, but something odd seems to be showing up about then in some trend analyses I've been doing for other reasons.

__________________________________________

A dear friend left academia shortly before I did, and started doing statistical work on Wall Street.  A few years ago, we met again at party, and he was explaining the mathematical modeling he was doing for credit default swaps, etc., and how important it was for economic growth, etc. etc. etc.  I looked at him and said, " Ah, you're a bookie!"  He got pissed, but couldn't deny it.

73

Yes indeed!  Wonderful news all around.  And to top it off:

WashPo has started the fast, jerky strokes of pre-release because... wait for it... Reid is surging (in unison with the WashPo reporter) in the polls!

And... (go ahead and slap the shit of that naughty monkey) Barry gets to take credit of capping the gulf leak!

Ahhhhhhhhhhh!

Not to mention passage of the finance bill that fixes absolutely nothing of the shit that caused the crash of '08 but it "fixes" one whole hell of a lot of stuff that didn't and pretty much institutionalizes govt takeovers of business.

Scott, Scott, he's our man!

74 Monty, come back soon!

75 I remember when they bought neal kash and karry in to figure out what happened.  Next I heard neal had left and was living in a cabin with his GF, apparently shell shocked from the job.  Next I heard he was working again, this time for the folks at p i m p c o.  I remember thinking "hmm well that's one employee who quickly transferred from public to private, seemingly effortlessly".   Anyways, I didn't feel that you were a pureyor of doom, rather I felt that you were trying to address the situation, still tell the truth but not have it sound like it was not surmountable.  But then again, been following this from the beginning and before so I found you tempered compared to some of the people I read.  Seriously, the elliott wave guys make you sound like a regular pollyanna.  And PA's posts about the economy have always been great too, particulary when you put up together, gave a great balance to the whole situation which, heretofore, has put us in a place we've never ever been.

76 Today, U.S. Representative Michele Bachmann filed paperwork to start a House Tea Party Caucus to promote AmericansÂ’ call for fiscal responsibility, adherence to the Constitution, and limited government.

First applicants for membership: Lindsey Graham and Scott Brown.

Bachmann is pissing up a rope here. No one who has been in Congress more than 15 minutes has escaped being infected with the free-spending, high-and-mighty virus that turns ordinary (if not overly intelligent) humans into raving turds without any purpose save keeping themselves in office, conscience-less buffoons who don't give a flying fuck about the people they allegedly "serve."

In other words, every damn worthless one of them needs to be removed from office. Most need a jail term to reflect on the destruction they have caused to America.

Michelle's heart may be in the right place, but virtually no "conservative" in D.C. is worth saving. They're done. Stick a freekin' fork in 'em. DO NOT let them adopt a "Tea Party" cloak to cover their incompetence.

77 I beg your pardon. I never promised you a rose garden.

78 "73 curious - next to last map because it puts the quake under DoE Germantown?

Posted by: Jean at July 16, 2010 09:18 AM (y8mLK)"

When I saw that I thought it was too funny...

79 Jean, God certainly has a sense of humor when it comes to earthquakes...maybe he doesn't want green energy?

80 It's just a hiatus, folks, not a cancellation -- never fear. I chose to do it now because I have a lot of stuff to get done IRL, and I've been putting off my vacation for too long. It's time to get the hell out and rest my brain for awhile. No computers, no cell phones, no pagers, no 'puters, no internet tubes. Nothing but me, a high-powered rifle, and a terrified and fleet-footed hobo. August promises to be a pretty dull month in most respects anyway. The Congresscritters are heading home to fester in their lairs, and companies are going to be jockeying for position rather than making big moves. It's possible that something could flash up in Europe, but they tend to take August off too. I expect the equities markets to sink back another 5% or so, but I'm frankly fuzzled by how they've been acting of late: I really have no idea what's driving them. I suspect that like the chaotic boundary where a high-pressure jet of water leaves the faucet -- frothing, churning, bubbling, but no obvious direction other than down. Then it settles and it's just Brownian Motion from then on. September and October are going to be pretty interesting, though.

81 I feel that I have become quite edumacted from reading Mr. Monty's briefings. For one, I have concluded that our sending that manned mission to Uranus was a complete waste of the serfs...err...taxpayers money.

_{oops...is Uranus a bad word?}

82 Monty, have a great time

83 82 That's right!I gave you assholes all that coal,gas and oil and fucking uranium and you want to put up fucking windmills!!I give up.

84 curious - they were just converting Cheney's earthquake machine into a artificial heart for him.

85

the blinkered slaves to a corrupt finance-by-Ponzi Scheme system (Kudlow)

Kudlow's been a complete POS ever since he got off the sauce or whatever the fuck he was hooked to.  I don't know if he was in group therapy with a bunch of leftards, including whoever was moderating some 12 step program to douchiness, and in his weakened condition he lost his fucking mind but he's been an "everything is beautiful" asswipe ever since then.  Somebody needs to set up a line of shots and a few rails to get the intelligent version of Kudlow back and fuck the consequences.

86 Seriously, the elliott wave guys make you sound like a regular pollyanna. The Elliott Wave guys are definitely not flowers-and-sunshine folks. They even make the guys at ZeroHedge seem like cockeyed optimists. But I am not by nature a "worst case scenario" kind of guy -- I'm all for being a realist, but there's always the danger of tipping over into apocalyptism where you almost end up hoping things go to shit just so you'll be proved right. That's pretty perverse, and I have to catch myself when I start doing it.

87 NOTICE: I'm going to be putting the Daily Financial Briefing on hiatus for a while. I've got a lot of travel and work stuff coming up, so I won't be able to chase down doom-filled economic news.

Thanks for these posts, Monty.  While they made me consider swallowing cyanide pills every once and again, it's enlightening to know what's really going on in the dark underbelly of the financial world.  Especially while I'm contemplating my own future (and looking on AoS) while setting up experiments.

Best of luck on your travel and work items. 

/In the end, there will be only chaos.

88 oops...is Uranus a bad word? Scientists changed the name back in 2620 just to end that silly joke once and for all! Now they call it Urectum! /Professor Farnsworth FTW

89 Drat, I'm coming down with a slight case of runningrn disease again.

90

BTW, I have it on good authority that all that stuff Monty said about vacation was guano.

What he's really about is preparing his headquarters for the epoxeclipse. Hording away gold, guns, ammo, and fuel, so that when the epoxyclipse hits he can ride it out with his fawning minions. Once the worst of it is over, he plans to come boiling out of his underground lair with machines, weapons, and warriors and claim dominion over the wasteland, and any stray tail he might be able to salvage.

/just sayin'...

91 he plans to come boiling out of his underground lair with machines, weapons, and warriors and claim dominion over the wasteland

It will be known as Montynet.

92 Does anyone here still gamble in the commodity markets; or has HFT destroyed them for the little guy?

93 #94  Kratos, my irony meter just broke.

lol, if Cynthia ever says that, it'll be the most sane thing that's come out of her mouth in years.

94 maddog: Damn you sir! Damn you to hell! Months and months of planning, hoarding, careful preparation...exposed before the time was ripe! The only thing I had left to do was build by doom-car (a rocket-powered dune-buggy with rocket-launchers and gatling-guns, and a PA system so I could threaten people from afar). And now you've ruined it all! You'll pay a price in blood for this, sir. Lord Humongous will have his revenge.

95 I hate people who think if they pass a rule or law they'll fundamentally change how reality works. Oh yes, pass a law that says STEM programs have to have quotas, then every STEM department will see their program enrollment drop because they can't fit in the people who sign up for them in relation to the favored group(s) that have to take up the magical remainder of the programs. I can't even understand it, most colleges have enrollment quotes already just to get in.

King Canute was ahead of his time.

96 As a person who normally pays as much attention to economics as I do to celebrity breakups (i.e., very little), I've found your posts an entertaining way to keep up with events in Mammon's realm. Good luck and I hope you can resume these posts soon.

97 The only commodities I'd speculate on now would be food, water purification units, seeds, ammo, medical supplies, and small units of precious metals--that were stored where I could reach them.  And, don't forget the still.

98 Gaff, what you will see is an administrative move of some more popular degree programs into the STEM category; like ecology, physical therapy, or nursing with an expanded list of available math classes with really difficult looking titles. Not that nursing or physical therapy are worthy endeavors (fuck ecology for the time being); but they aren't going to drive the economy.

99 This idea that women who have a natural talent for math get sidetracked by socialization? Total bullshit.

In the past, some may have.  But in the past generation or two, that socialization has not come from education or industry.  Parents who insist their daughters should pursue a pink-collar-until-she-catches-a-husband life (hi Mom!) aren't going to be affected by mere legislation.

There's also been some studies about talented women getting into STEM fields then realizing they wanted to be full-time mothers, so they got back out.  Legislation can't affect biology, either...

Meh.

100 Mallamutt - Or maybe sold for a year of funding for the SEIU thugs pensions. you might want to get that idea on the table.

101 Michael Barone's latest is up. It is long, but very much worth reading. Go ye and read thereof.

102 You mean that I have to go out and track down all of the DOOM! on my own now? Bummer. But it was great while it lasted. Thanks, Monty.

103 "Small earthquake in DC this morning...someone must have dropped a copy of ObamaCare."

104

ON a related front I see that Republicans are already calling for that abortion of a finance bill to be repealed. However, I don't see any calls for stripping the ME sisters and Brown of committee assignments after voting for it.

 

Thank you. Someone else already pointed out that Joe Barton was vilified, both here and elsewhere. Will Brown or the Maine sisters get the sane treatment for handing the Won his only paper victory in months? No.

105 I'll miss the posts Monty.

106 Mallamutt: you've got it. Once those pension checks start bouncing, folks will be SO very amazed. They just simply cannot face reality. It's really rather astounding!

We are eyeing Iowa or Wisconsin as our sanctuary-states.

Quinn and his boys have driven my hubby's employer almost out of biz. They'll be closing shop early next year.

We will have no reason to stay here and bail out some 55 yr old retired teacher who has an $80,000 a year pension for the rest of their life!

Hallelujah.

107 I was told that he was all about bi partisanship.   My regular everyday voter friend said "that's so nice that they did this with bi partisanship, you see Washington can work".....I was like three republicans who are really democrats in disguise doesn't mean bi partisanship...she refused to believe me.

108 "Obesity Rating for Every American Must Be Included in Stimulus-Mandated Electronic Health Records, Says HHS"

109 There's also been some studies about talented women getting into STEM fields then realizing they wanted to be full-time mothers, so they got back out. Legislation can't affect biology, either... There's a lot of misinformation about gender, race, and IQ out there. Steven Pinker's The Blank Slate is probably the best popular treatment of the subject I've seen, but that book is getting pretty dated now and a lot of new research is coming in that only sharpens when many researchers suspect already. First, it's not about "smarts". IQ is pretty evenly-divided among the genders if you abstract it into q. Women do decisively better than men on verbal ability and holistic reasoning ("multitasking"); men do decisively better than women at spatial analysis and abstract reasoning. In other words, and to over-generalize, women tend to the "broad but shallow" mental model, whereas men go for "narrow and deep". Neither is "better" than the other; in fact, both are necessary as task-specialization gets ever more important. Human nature also comes into it. Even apart from mental ability, there is ample evidence that the sexes approach their lives quite differently. Women are far more social creatures than men are, and operate much more in a web of relationships and heirarchies. Men on the other hand tend to be far more competitive, and view tasks not as cooperative endeavors but as contests to establish status. In other words, we are very much like our primate cousins in this regard. Biology will express itself, whether we like it or not.

110 The "obesity rating" is just the tip of the compliance iceberg. Before this is all over, there will be penalties for toenail fungus. Just watch and see. As Rush said yesterday, this is all about control.

111

I want to add to the chorus saying "hooray for Monty" (since I was one of the guys who suggested that his postings better belonged to the main page). He's exceeded my already-high expectations.

Monty, good luck in your upcoming travel / work / Thunderdome-building. I hope to read more of your comments in future.

112 Dude-
Seriously, how about at least a once a week post?  Your stuff is consistently the funniest and yet most educating stuff out there.  It's become one of my "must reads."  But whatever.  Safe travels-

113 There are probably other things you could do with your time, talents and imagination Monty. You could pick your boogers with a spatula. If you must write, write a manual on spatula booger picking.
Safe travels and may you never run out of tickets.

114 This article on why implementing a Title IX-like mandate to get more women into STEM areas (Science, Technology, Engineering, Mathematics) is not only likely to fail, but actually cause positive harm.



Told 'ya so.

Now if you could just ignore that "nearly bankrupted Harvard" thing.......

115 101 Mallamutt -

Yes, we are boned beyond belief.  And, to make things worse, the state has been gerrymandered so completely that nearly all seats are safe going into the November elections.  We will need to go bankrupt before anything changes, and I'm pretty sure not even that will help.

116

Come on, Geithner told Dudlow that the Regime was going to be one top of encouraging business investment.

117

Hey my IL peeps -- ready for the meltdown?  I personally am working on my own chain mail dress.  The hubby and I are thinking of starting our own warlord style protectorate down here -- if any of you want to join in the fun...won't be long now!

118

@5

Nighhawk:

I completely agree with you.  I was a police officer for 20 years and had to take a medical retirement due to health problems precluding me from being a police officer anymore (it really is a young person's game).  During my last 8 years I was a traffic crash reconstructionist and found that I had an affinity for the mathematics and physics.

I'm currently 3/4 of the way through my BS in mechanical engineering.  In order to make a little extra coin I work for my local community college as a physics tutor.  Some of the students are utterly lost when it comes to comprehending the subject matter.  I've worked individually with a student for an hour or so and at the end of it, they still can't figure out the potential or kinetic energy of a body in free-fall.  Hell, some of them can't even handle unit conversions.

I don't see those issues so much among the juniors or seniors in the engineering college I attend due to those students without the basic aptitude already being weeded out.  Hopefully, there will be some entry-level engineering job available for me in about two years.

119

I'm assuming "STEM" will not end up including biological sciences (or chemistry, to a lesser degree).  My experience in that field has been one where women have equal to higher representation than men.  I could only speculate why, but women are not in danger of discrimination there.

And anybody who tells you that we need more scientists is probably being disingenous.  We already have too many!  The jobs just aren't there, and those that are pay terribly; I have two MS degrees (biochemistry and immunology, respectively), and right now I make less than a first year public school teacher. 

120

I'll miss your posts, Monty.

Have fun, but come back.

121

*dabs eyes*

*sniff, sniff * 

I'll miss you Monty.  No one does DOOOOOOOM like you do. 

122 Hopefully, there will be some entry-level engineering job available for me in about two years. I wouldn't worry -- if you're competent, engineers are always in demand. You may need to move, though; being mobile is probably the most important thing going forward. Two places I'd check: architecture firms (architects often tend to have...unrealistic...ideas that need to be checked by actual engineers before people start pouring concrete and putting up steel); and energy firms (oil, natgas, solar, whatever). There's going to be a lot of money flowing in that sector in coming years, and engineers are going to be on the sharp point of the spear.

123 My kids came home from their public school for the summer with a big stack of summer 'homework' we've been gradually working through each morning.  The math is getting heavily into basic algebraic concepts.

They're going into second grade this fall.

Our (yes, public) school system here rocks.

124 Jane - Where is "down here"?  When the meltdown comes, those of us north of I-80 will likely be looking for sanctuary!

125 126

I'm assuming "STEM" will not end up including biological sciences (or chemistry, to a lesser degree).  My experience in that field has been one where women have equal to higher representation than men.  I could only speculate why, but women are not in danger of discrimination there.

Actually, I believe women still lag significantly in tenured and tenure-track faculty positions. 

126

131  Let's just say: I -80 is like an entirely different state; you all like to use it as a geographic reference point for upstate/downstate...I'm more inclined to use I-70...or at least I-74.  Anything above that is "north".

Although I'm kinda liking Mutt's idea of auctioning us off -- I'll go to either IN or KY...and both of those states seem much preferrable to what my beloved LOL has turned into (do you know how hard it is for an Illinoisian to say: I wish we were Hoosiers? the world may indeed be coming to an end).

 

127

All I ask is that you know how to do practical things (or are willing to learn) and bring with you a contribution to the arsenal

128 No! what'll I do without you, Monty? I'll have to search the bowels of the internet by myself!  Horrors! I've come to rely on the morning briefing. Gah!

129 The S&P 500 took a real kick in the balls this morning -- it's down more than seventeen points from yesterday's close. It'll be interesting to see how much of last week's rally the markets give back today (if any; those late-day melt-ups may save the situation yet again).

130 No more Mr. Happy's Morning Sunshine Hour?

131 Wait, what about commercial property? Is it a parallel to home values and their drop? Oh well....I guess I can wait for the next chapter of this terrifying book.

132

This state will eventually drive itself into a ditch. And when it happens, everyone is going to sit around and wonder how it happened. Oh well, personally, I live close enough to Missouri that I am hoping to be annexed. Or maybe sold for a year of funding for the SEIU thugs pensions

Hey, no problem at all.  The solution is simple, and staring you right in the face.  What Illinois needs?  Sell Alvin Greene Action Figures!  Before you can say Shabaam Wow you'll be running a budget surplus.

 

133 Awww. But you're right. The world may melt down, but like heck it's going to melt down while everyone is taking their August vacations.

134 I already do most of my shopping in Indiana (or Bourbonnais).  Cook County is a waste of both time and space.  It won't get any better because the voter base is moron grade or below.

135 "89

the blinkered slaves to a corrupt finance-by-Ponzi Scheme system (Kudlow)

Kudlow's been a complete POS ever since he got off the sauce or whatever the fuck he was hooked to.  I don't know if he was in group therapy with a bunch of leftards, including whoever was moderating some 12 step program to douchiness, and in his weakened condition he lost his fucking mind but he's been an "everything is beautiful" asswipe ever since then.  Somebody needs to set up a line of shots and a few rails to get the intelligent version of Kudlow back and fuck the consequences.

Posted by: Captain Hate at July 16, 2010 09:30 AM (qPpkJ)"

As I recall, in the first week of the administration, Larry was invited to a dinner at the white house.  I believe there were like 11 other conservatives there at the dinner.  That was the moment he changed.

136

141 Blago bobblehead action figures?  Complete with Flaming Hair of Doom Blagorang and Magical Mystery Payoff Envelope of Injustice?

Could possibly work...

137 S&P 500 still sinking like a holed fishing boat -- down nearly 22 points. Looks like the rally monkey got tired and decided to have a little lie-down.

138 Y-Not: You asked last night (after I went to bed) about my move to Philly. Not a random choice of city. Penn was the best school that would have me, and the city comes with it for four years.

Our incoming class is 55-45 women. The trend line suggests that the graduating class will be 52-48 men. I fail to see how Title Eleventy  discrimination lawsuits will make a positive difference there.

139 144 Nailed it. A Kobe steak and a few lines off the White House mirror. That presidential grade coke can really change a guy. "V shaped recovery". "Lagging indicators". Fuck Kudlow.

140 For aspiring engineers, whatever you plan on doing eventually, do your best to turn that BS into a PE certification (professional engineer).  You will never lack for work, even if it is just insurance company investigations, and can always work for yourself, as much or as little as you wish, or for a firm such as Haag, in Dallas.

141 Well, I have never owned a gun, but I am seriously considering changing that.  I thought I would wait until things started getting dicey up here, but maybe it's best not to wait!

I'll pack my hand tools and be ready to roll!

142 Posted by: texette at July 16, 2010 11:41 AM (sFMqB)

how do you do that?

143 Little Miss Spellcheck -- what will the trendline look like leaving Philly 10-90?

144 curious, it's a license like that for a doctor or lawyer.  Different states have different standards (some may have none at all, I don't know).  Google the requirements for your state.  Usually requires passing a test, and tests can be prepared for with time, and can be retaken if failed.

145 Well, *I* liked the cat piss ...erm, information. Gonna miss this, Monty. A lot. *mumble*gonna make me do my own work*mumble* oh-has a RL, does he*mumble*smartassbassturd*mumble*

146 Dang, just when it was getting fun.  When Sheila Jackson Lee stopped blogging on finance I thought I would never find her equal, and now you're quitting too.  Oh well, I hope you enjoy your well deserved respite.

147

150  You don't own a gun, and you live north of I-80?  How have you managed to survive? 

Come on down -- we'll need all hands when we get ready to pursue our expansionist manifest destiny plan (through diplomatic negotiation, of course).  If it's successful, we push far enough south to link up with Grunt

 

In all seriousness, the rest of the state needs to force north of Kankakee and east of Rockford out of the state -- they can be the state of Chicago.  It'll hurt, not having a Great Lakes port (or going to MLB games), but it's a price I'm willing to pay to get rid of Chicago and its influence on tstate politics.

 

148 Nooooo! Enjoy the hiatus, but for the love of all that's holy, please come out of retirement soon, Monty. My first cup of coffee in the a.m. won't taste nearly as good without the accompanying Daily Doom/Reality Report...

149

Actually, I believe women still lag significantly in tenured and tenure-track faculty positions. 

The default assumption on that is one of discrimination, and I just don't buy it. 

150 Oh well, I hope you enjoy your well deserved respite. We've had our differences, but thanks for the compliment. I'll be back at it before long. One thing I'll be doing on my break is catching up on my reading, and finance-oriented stuff is going to catch a good bit of that. My knowledge of markets is behind the times, and I need to re-school on exactly what happened in the 2001-2003 recession, what the Fed's actions did, and how it fed the recession we're in right now. I think a big part of our problem is that the recession we had post 9/11 and post-dotcom boom was a lot milder than it might have been due to Fed intervention -- but it ended up making this downturn a lot worse. We're getting deflation now because we have to deflate, but I still think extreme inflation is lurking further out. Monetization is the only way out of the hole we're in, given how the government and the Fed works.

151 I hope I don't end up feeling optimistic without The Daily Doom.  I will look forward to your eventual gloomy return.  Thanks a million, Eeyore.

152 Agree re the inevitable debasement of the dollar.  Timing is the tricky part, but the outcome cannot realistically be avoided.

For what it's worth, here are a few titles that would be excellent additions to your library, if you have not already read them:

Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter Bernstein
Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb
Devil Take the Hindmost by Edward Chancellor
The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb
Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely
The Drunkard's Walk by Leonard Mlodinow
When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein

If you'll indulge one last opinion, the best way to ensure a long & successful career in this business is to have a thorough knowledge of risk management, probability and behavioral finance and to not take predictions or forecasts seriously.

153 Not fond of Taleb. I have The Black Swan, and I didn't really think much of it. He was right, but he larded his core point with too much extraneous crap. He could have published the book as a 50-page pamphlet and make his point more concisely. I am always amused to hear finance professionals extoll the virtues of risk, and then go out and blow other people's money like a sailor on liberty on Bangkok. Most finance guys don't understand "risk" any better than anyone else; or if they do, they completely fucking ignore it and do whatever they want anyway. That's why FinReg is so laughable -- it won't do jack to stop Wall Street fuckery because all the investment banks will get their army of quant geeks to draw up vehicles specially-crafted to get around the new regs, and the casino will keep racketing right along. If America goes tits-up, they'll move to Shanghai or Hong Kong. Case in point: Lehman. Fuld was a jackass about fifteen times over, and has been for fifteen years. His stupid firm should have died during the LTCM debacle. Merrill also should have died a million times before BoA bought their corpse. I just find the whole Wall Street claque to be a bunch of howler-monkeys, and that's never been more apparent than in the past few years. They never fucking learn. The whole notion that they act on behalf of investors is completely ludicrous; their only concern is how many millions they get at bonus time. What other business rewards you with tens of millions in pay for losing tens of billions of your clients' money? I don't find "finance professionals" to be all that bright as a group, quite frankly. Only weather forecasters get it wrong more often and still somehow manage to keep their jobs.

154 First of all, I agree, finance professionals, particularly at the retail level, are hideously naive and uninformed.  They, if we are generalizing here, are far too trusting in the marketing efforts of their firm and whatever mutual funds they are fond of.  Risk management, beyond a hat tip to diversifying, is generally not understood.  Instead, most brokers, like most investors, spend all their time focusing on track records, and morningstar ratings and other useless bullshit.

However, there are thousands upon thousands of incredibly sharp, principled and intellectually curious people in this business.  I wouldn't expect someone whose knowledge of finance seems to be derived from watching Countdown to do anything but spout the broadest generalities, but the truth is out there for anyone willing to put five minutes into looking.

By the way, what percentage of people in the investment business do you suppose collect 7 or 8 figure bonuses?

155 By the way, what percentage of people in the investment business do you suppose collect 7 or 8 figure bonuses? It's interesting that you don't throw "six figure" bonuses in there. I know -- personally -- about six in my own town who collected between $500K and $1M last year for "outperforming the market". That is a completely bullshit metric, but finance guys would absoluutely howl if they were held to the same performance metric as everyone else is -- if the company has a net loss for the year, no bonus. Period. (And that's for that vanishing breed of workers who get bonuses any more.) I don't get the mystique around finance (obviously something you've swallowed whole). Finance guys aren't that bright as a breed, except for quants, and even they tend to be mind-bogglingly dumb when it comes to common-sense rather than theory. Finance can be made fabulously complicated, but it doesn't need to be. And the complexity only enriches the middlemen, not the issuer or buyer of the security more often than not. I mean, seriously: how complicated does a fucking bond need to be? We're getting to the point that not even the eggheaded quants can explain their derivative models any more, or predict how they'll behave in a real-world marketplace. There are good financial advisers out there, but not as many as you seem to think. Where were all the honest brokers and retail advisers calling the real-estate scam what it was way back in 2005, when it was obvious to anyone with half a brain that it was bullshit? But nary a peep -- they wanted their bonuses, all the way from the retail office in the strip mall to the central office on Wall Street. Either that, or they were just too stupid to realize what was going on, which kind of makes the same point in the end. Finance has become too Byzantine, and too detached from value-add to the investors. Now it's all about manufacturing profit out of thin air by arbitrage and speculation. If you like playing that game, fine -- go right ahead. But it's no different in principle than the three-card monte game the conmen run down by the bus-station. At least they have the common courtesy to admit that they're crooks.

156 I don't find "finance professionals" to be all that bright as a group, quite frankly. Only weather forecasters get it wrong more often and still somehow manage to keep their jobs.

Just so you know, this has been my main issue with you.  Forecasting the economy or stock market is impossible, nobody does it with consistent accuracy.  I'm not sure why anyone employs or pays attention to market strategists, but you do exactly the same thing.  For example, "I have a feeling that economic news is going to get "interesting" around the beginning of September, and by "interesting" I mean "terrifying".  I'm sure if you happen to be right we'll hear all about it.  If you're wrong, well maybe you'll have some other predictions that turned out and we can hear about those.

You make predictions and spout nonsensical and uninformed opinions constantly.  Links accompanied by snide commentary would be perfectly reasonable and something you would be qualified to do.  However, your "insight" on subjects like HFT or derivatives or tape painting is just laughably, obviously, uninformed.  Being a guy that is long on opinion and short on data and practical knowledge doesn't exactly put you in a unique category, but it's not my blog so I suppose it doesn't really matter.

157 but it's not my blog so I suppose it doesn't really matter Well at least we can both agree on that. I don't like you and you don't like me. I think you're an idiot and you think I'm an idiot. Let's leave it at that: nothing more can be gained at this point. Res ipsa loquitur.

158 Halloween isn't the only scary thing coming up in October. (from the linked article) ItÂ’s all down to the Vix futures contango ... Noooooooo!!! Anything but a Vix Futures Contango!

159 It's interesting that you don't throw "six figure" bonuses in there. I know -- personally -- about six in my own town who collected between $500K and $1M last year for "outperforming the market". That is a completely bullshit metric, but finance guys would absoluutely howl if they were held to the same performance metric as everyone else is -- if the company has a net loss for the year, no bonus. Period. (And that's for that vanishing breed of workers who get bonuses any more.)

OK, throw in 6 figure bonuses, what percentage?  Beating the market may be a bullshit metric to you or me, but apparently not to whoever is paying your acquaintances.  Why the hell do you care?  Should all contracts and performance clauses be subject to approval by you or a fairness czar?  I'm sure that neither of us was in favor of TARP, but beyond the public bailout/moral hazard angle of this, why would the bonus structure of an employee of a private company be of the slightest concern to you?  It's not your money.

I always find it amusing to read guys like you - the finance people are stupid, investors are stupid, regulators are stupid, the market is rigged, if only the world would listen to what you're saying!

P.S.  Better luck in 2012, that Kucinich/Nader dream ticket has come together eventually!

160 Book Thread! > 161 For what it's worth, here are a few titles that would be excellent additions to your library, if you have not already read them: Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk by Peter Bernstein Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb Devil Take the Hindmost by Edward Chancellor The Black Swan by Nassim Taleb Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely The Drunkard's Walk by Leonard Mlodinow When Genius Failed by Roger Lowenstein Posted by: Ted Kennedy's Gristle Encased Head I'm suggesting "The Money Game" and "Supermoney" by Adam Smith. These are contemporary accounts of the madness of the late 1960s-early 1970s on Wall St. Not only does it show how we got here, lots of the stuff that went on then has occurred over and over again since. Very educational.

161 Jean @152: Believe me, I'll be fleeing Philly the day I graduate. The current mayor seems well-intentioned but powerless to move the needle. Previous mayor was an effective crook but incompetent manager. Somewhere before that was Ed Rendell, a goofball who kept the city alive against all odds.

Since I won't be working, I won't pay wage tax. Rents have fallen so far that the owners are eating the property tax hikes. Sales tax is lower than I'm used to in NYC, and the proposed soda tax failed. I don't drink, so the state liquor store prices don't faze me. I'll vote for Toomey over Sestak with some hope of backing a winner, which would never happen in NY. My little slice of off-campus is patrolled by three separate police services.

Still, it seems Action News leads off every night with shootings, stabbings, flash mobs of violent youts. The jobbed are jumping across the city line and wage tax revenues are plummeting. Defaulted mortgages and abandoned homes are killing property tax receipts. Huge number of vacant storefronts in center city. The streets are filthy and crumbling. It's a scary picture.

162

Realize that you want to take a breather, I've been there. If it brings you back any faster, you daily financial shitfest has been my #1 read every morning.

 

You've done a man's job sir. Please come back soon.

163 It figures -- the one day I skip my morning "Snark and Doom" column, there's a "Closed for the Summer" sign on the door. We love you, Monty, see you in September.