September 01, 2010
— Open Blogger Hi there, Morons and Moronettes...
In the midst of all our revelry, there is a new little bit that needs to kind of get front and center into the minds of our East Coast folks, and that's Hurricane Earl.
A couple of the hurricane forecast models continue to trend Earl west of where it was projected to go even yesterday. One of those models, ominously, has it going ashore on Long Island.
Below the fold, we're going to have some reminders about hurricane preparedness, as well as a bit of info from Mrs. tmi3rd (a meteorologist and hurricane specialist with the National Weather Service) on hurricanes in general...
For a point of reference, the last significant hurricane to make landfall on Long Island was in 1938. You can read about it at the link, but it did a whole lot of damage and killed a whole bunch of people.
So what do the above-linked models mean? Well, a composite of those models create what is called the forecast track for the National Hurricane Center. Are they typically accurate? In point of fact, no- they're good for ballparking forecasts, but a whole lot of stuff is usually very inaccurate in them. A case in point- they can't account for the friction of a storm interacting with the coastline, which tends to deflect its momentum slightly right of the forecast path.
Nonetheless, when they're all tightly grouped like they are in the above link, it's worth paying attention to. These models predict where the center of circulation is headed. At the same time, this storm is pretty big in diameter (a couple of hundred miles, give or take), so even a 100-mile brush can bring you some heavy rains and high winds.
So let's talk about getting prepared for a hurricane. First of all, if you've been through a bad nor'easter, you just substitute rain for snow, and you're getting there, especially if you're in NYC or Boston. You need to have a couple of days of drinking water, a couple of days of non-perishable food (in case the power goes out), a radio, batteries, medications, and whatever else you put in your zombie horde survival kit. Figure that you may go without power for three days if something bad happens...
If you're on the coast, on the other hand, here's a good rule of thumb. You want to be ten miles inland for a category 1 or 2 on the Saffir-Simpson scale. If you're in a major coastal city (NYC, Providence, Boston, Bridgeport, et al) and you have a category 3 storm or higher bearing down on you, you'd be well-advised to strongly consider clearing out.
So, bottom line, if you're in the Chesapeake Bay area, anywhere along the Jersey Shore, and all the way up through Maine, try to keep an eye on this. It's moving over cooler waters (making it more likely to weaken a bit), and most of these storms tend to parallel the coast before racing out to sea. The modeling on this storm, however, takes it over Nova Scotia, and that itself is a bit of an eyebrow-raiser.
I'll be floating around the thread (I'm home with tmi4th this afternoon) and will try to check in to answer any questions you may have... as a bit of further background, growing up in New Orleans, we saw about thirty or so hurricanes and tropical storms in my time there. Please stay informed about the storm- hopefully, it'll just push out to sea, but nobody ever gained any points by being unprepared.
Posted by: Open Blogger at
12:36 PM
| Comments (109)
Post contains 606 words, total size 4 kb.
Fear not. We here in Delaware have taken the ultimate step in hurricane preparedness.
We have New Jersey.
Posted by: Blue Hen at September 01, 2010 12:40 PM (R2fpr)
Posted by: Charlie Rangel at September 01, 2010 12:40 PM (T1boi)
Posted by: Drew in MO at September 01, 2010 12:40 PM (/idDL)
I actually just sent your post around to some of my friends who aren't taking this seriously at all....so it is much appreciated...
Posted by: curious at September 01, 2010 12:41 PM (p302b)
Posted by: Keith Arnold at September 01, 2010 12:41 PM (Jdtsu)
Posted by: Chris Crocker at September 01, 2010 12:42 PM (c3i/K)
Posted by: nevergiveup at September 01, 2010 12:42 PM (U5btG)
Posted by: Tami at September 01, 2010 12:42 PM (VuLos)
Posted by: ParisParamus at September 01, 2010 12:43 PM (GgR+e)
I have no clue what to do in a situation like this...I'm from AZ, for frack's sake.
Posted by: rktkt at September 01, 2010 12:43 PM (DkEUV)
It's gotta be at least as good as a homicide bombers, or your average drive-by shooter's, doncha think?
Posted by: Keith Arnold at September 01, 2010 12:43 PM (Jdtsu)
Posted by: nevergiveup at September 01, 2010 12:44 PM (U5btG)
Posted by: nevergiveup at September 01, 2010 12:45 PM (U5btG)
Posted by: Dr Spank at September 01, 2010 12:45 PM (xtAfO)
Computer models are guestimates and with Earl, he's modeling so close to the shoreline that it wouldn't take much of a westward jog to be a massive problem. Don't turn your back on him.
Btw, he's looking a lot like 1996 Bertha...
Posted by: JR at September 01, 2010 12:45 PM (ZH8bj)
Guess vacancies on Fire Island this weekend will be many. Hope that little sliver of land pulls through...
Posted by: ParisParamus
They have many openings to fill?
Posted by: Blue Hen at September 01, 2010 12:46 PM (R2fpr)
Posted by: Lincolntf at September 01, 2010 12:46 PM (hV/FZ)
Posted by: nevergiveup at September 01, 2010 12:46 PM (U5btG)
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (formerly NJConservative) at September 01, 2010 12:46 PM (LH6ir)
You'd think that given all the money I've won playing poker in Atlantic City, I'd pay attention to the land of Chris Christie...
Anyway, if it stays tight to the coast, storm surge will be an issue from the coast to about 10-15 miles inland, usually... high winds starting from the east, then switching to the north. Still, way too early to tell. This stuff can be horribly inaccurate, but it never pays to take it lightly.
Secondly, Chesapeake Bay, Chris? Probably not... prevailing winds and shear don't seem to be steering it in that direction. Be great to clear out Congress like a fart in a car, though.
Posted by: tmi3rd at September 01, 2010 12:47 PM (WRtsc)
Posted by: Dr Spank at September 01, 2010 12:47 PM (xtAfO)
have family in Myrtle Beach and this storm will likely just miss them....I am gonna say the storm makes landfall between Wilmington NC and Norfolk VA....
DC WILL get residual chaos.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 12:48 PM (kq1lG)
Well, I hope all y'all in the path of Earl have better drainage than in my neighborhood. A long thunderstorm has the streets so flooded I can barely get my minivan through.
And it's not exactly rare for it to rain a lot here...
Posted by: Mama AJ at September 01, 2010 12:48 PM (XdlcF)
But good to be prepared.
Posted by: bill at September 01, 2010 12:48 PM (xWAQg)
(Same nephew wouldn't get a rat's ass if we here in coastal Georgia were swept away.)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at September 01, 2010 12:48 PM (UOM48)
Ace he'd be an awesome guest blogger for weather.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 12:49 PM (kq1lG)
Posted by: curious at September 01, 2010 12:50 PM (p302b)
Myrtle Beach has turned itself into the world's largest swimming pool the last 20 years....
as Day-Lewis says, "DRAINAGE!"
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 12:50 PM (kq1lG)
Remember our rating system? I don't.
it was based on multiples of polishing the bayonet but I can't remember the phrase
Posted by: i got a girl in kalamazoo...zoo...zoo...zoo at September 01, 2010 12:52 PM (uFokq)
Posted by: ParisParamus at September 01, 2010 12:52 PM (GgR+e)
For the moment? Nothing at all. Have your emergency supplies ready, and just keep an eye on things. Have some idea of where you can go about 25-30 miles inland and stay for a couple of days (make hotel reservations early- it's Labor Day weekend!). It may miss entirely, so don't go apeshit until it's time to go apeshit.
Posted by: tmi3rd at September 01, 2010 12:53 PM (WRtsc)
I'm in southwest Connecticut. Hubby's been out of the country for 2 1/2 months and kids aren't here. (although my daughter will be home this weekend). I've not been keeping much in stock because it's just me, a fat lab and small bitchy cat.
Posted by: Tami at September 01, 2010 12:54 PM (VuLos)
Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at September 01, 2010 12:55 PM (wd0Iq)
1) Stock up on mixers. Fruit juice, soda, tonic water and hobo plasma. You may have to make the value-rite last for a while.
2) Charge everything with a battery. Cell phones, emergency radios, flashlights, portable TVs, Kindles, iPods, vibrators.
3) Top off your gas cans. You may need to refill your chainsaw.
4) Make your bottled-water-and-toilet-paper run two days before the storm hits. Everyone else will go the next day.
5) Try to time it so that you have new Netflix deliveries right before the storm hits. Nothing sucks fish like being stuck with that copy of Post Grad you have been meaning to send back.
Posted by: Darkmage at September 01, 2010 12:55 PM (SvP5Y)
Did you keep an earthquake kit in Arizona? That kind of preparation is will probably do you for this hurricane. The most likely effect here is lotsa rain and tropical-depression-scale winds. (You tend to lose water and electricity after a hurricane, but for different reasons.)
If you're right on the coast, you might think about leaving inland for a few days. I have no clue how well your house will stand up to hurricane-force winds. If you're inland, you'll have to worry about flooding, but winds and storm surge probably won't be a problem.
Probably. It all depends on how hard Earl turns right. One of the models puts it right into North Carolina, while another puts it through Boston. The clear majority, though, have it skirt the coast and land in Nova Scotia.
Posted by: Meiczyslaw at September 01, 2010 12:55 PM (vEhUz)
Posted by: nevergiveup at September 01, 2010 12:57 PM (U5btG)
as Day-Lewis says, "DRAINAGE!"
I really don't understand how a neighborhood built in the last 30 years could fail so completely at drainage. Least our block is slightly better at having the houses above the level of the street...
Posted by: Mama AJ at September 01, 2010 12:57 PM (XdlcF)
Posted by: Lincolntf at September 01, 2010 12:57 PM (hV/FZ)
Posted by: ziptie at September 01, 2010 12:58 PM (0135J)
ok, so no matter what, up there you will probably lose your lights....so get yourself to the costco and load up on water and canned goods and such, stuff you don't have to cook but is nourishing and lots of candles.
Don't worry. I know we'll probably get something of the storm, I don't like it at night, I'd prefer the day.
you made me laugh with the cat...maybe the cat is bitchy cause she feels the storm...
Posted by: curious at September 01, 2010 12:58 PM (p302b)
there is an artificial disincentive to be responsible with building, zoning, municipal utility matters these days....
none of the areas that can be adversely impacted by weather have been forced to endure the natural defunding that galveston in the early 1900s did for example....
Look up "Indianola Texas"....
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 12:59 PM (kq1lG)
Posted by: Lincolntf at September 01, 2010 01:00 PM (hV/FZ)
Posted by: ziptie
You in Delaware too? I know that huerfano is as well. I thinnk that Joanie (oven gloves) lives in SE PA.
Posted by: Blue Hen at September 01, 2010 01:00 PM (R2fpr)
The rolling,hills of Sussex County, NJ will be spared the racist wrath of Earl this weekend. Beer, golf and porn will continue in its regulary scheduled weekend time slots.
Posted by: dananjcon at September 01, 2010 01:00 PM (pr+up)
Posted by: nevergiveup at September 01, 2010 01:00 PM (U5btG)
Posted by: moki at September 01, 2010 01:02 PM (dZmFh)
fox just went to beck...can't get onto the other thread to read....before he left shep said something about the suspect being shot and in custody, condition unknown..
Posted by: curious at September 01, 2010 01:03 PM (p302b)
We're probably about 2 miles inland, so chances are if it comes this way we'll have to find somewhere to hole up.
I never had an earthquake kit in AZ. Earthquakes were something that hit California and we were counting on the big one to come so we'd finally have beachfront property. That's all we were worried about.
Posted by: rktkt at September 01, 2010 01:04 PM (DkEUV)
Posted by: curious at September 01, 2010 04:58 PM (p302b)
Then she's felt it for the past 5 years.
I have a generator...I better check the gas situation. We had to use it for 4 days in march during that storm.
Posted by: Tami at September 01, 2010 01:05 PM (VuLos)
AJ's generic disaster planning tips:
Stay on top of the little things. Even if there's only a slight chance of a storm several days out, make sure:
--you always have gas in the tank; fill it back up at half a tank
--have car chargers for your cell phone and whatever else (like the kids' Nintendos--sounds silly, but disasters can be scary, so whatever helps)
--have an standard phone for your land line that doesn't require power. I got a neon pink one for my mom and it was easy to find in the middle of the night with the power out!
--have important phone numbers written down, e.g., for the power company; yeh, you could put them in your cell phone, but when if/when the battery dies and the cell towers are down, paper helps
--have cash on hand; if the power is out at the local ATMs and the stores, you might be able to buy things while the guy waving a credit card can't
Posted by: Mama AJ at September 01, 2010 01:05 PM (XdlcF)
Posted by: Hurricane Earl Gibson at September 01, 2010 01:07 PM (Ez4Ql)
Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at September 01, 2010 01:07 PM (wd0Iq)
Posted by: ziptie at September 01, 2010 01:08 PM (0135J)
If it does come ashore in NC that will take as lot of the strength out of it. If it does follow that route by the time it gets to long island, the partial land fall and the colder water should reduce it down to a tropical storm. still worrisome but not near as dangerous unless people do teh stupid.
The biggest danger to Long Island will be if it takes a more Easterly route and then veers West without appreciably weakening.
Posted by: Vic at September 01, 2010 01:09 PM (/jbAw)
Oh, even being caught up on the laundry can be a help if your disaster involves mud. And kids. And muddy kids. And did I mention mud?
Perhaps buying more than one pair of cheap rainboats...
Posted by: Mama AJ at September 01, 2010 01:10 PM (XdlcF)
which is by way of coincidence the scenario the disaster porn show on History "megadisasters" projected would drown the apple.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 01:11 PM (kq1lG)
Posted by: Hurricane Earl Gibson at September 01, 2010 01:12 PM (Ez4Ql)
Just give thanks that you don't have 95 degree weather if you lose your electricity.
Posted by: polynikes at September 01, 2010 05:13 PM (m2CN7)
Oh crap...something else to look forward to.
Posted by: Tami at September 01, 2010 01:16 PM (VuLos)
Posted by: curious at September 01, 2010 01:19 PM (p302b)
Let me tell you, if you live on the coast and a Cat 3, 4, or 5 is coming down on you "riding it out" is not an option. It is teh stupid. Most people think of the high winds and missile hazards but that is not what gets you. It is the 12 to 14 foot storm surge that knocks your house down and carries you off with all the debris that gets you.
Posted by: Vic at September 01, 2010 01:20 PM (/jbAw)
Y'all be safe up there. This might be the Long Island Express, part deaux.
Posted by: GulfCoastTider at September 01, 2010 01:20 PM (UR6Va)
Posted by: ParisParamus at September 01, 2010 01:21 PM (mkdwR)
Posted by: curious at September 01, 2010 01:22 PM (p302b)
Mrs. tmi3rd (a meteorologist and hurricane specialist with the National Weather Service) on hurricanes in general...
Don't take this the wrong way, tmi3rd, but as a resident meteorologist on this here site, I love your wife.
But yes, it's going to be awfully close. A little wobble left, and goodbye, Outer Banks or hello, Long Island. Oh. Oh my. I see that it is the NGFDL model that is the most westward. They're usually pretty good, too.
Safety tip for morons: the #1 cause of death in a landfalling tropical system is fresh water drowning. So stock up on Val-U-Rite and call it a day.
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at September 01, 2010 01:23 PM (1hM1d)
Check it out... again, I can't stress enough- DON'T PANIC. Just keep an eye and be prepared.
If in the city, and it's a Category 1 or 2 storm, or a tropical storm, you'll get a day off from work. If it's a Category 3-5 storm (not likely), you'll want to get out of the way.
If you're on the coast, you'll want to go inland (probably west more than north) for a day.
Again, it's only a big deal if it doesn't behave. So far, this season has been well-behaved.
Posted by: tmi3rd at September 01, 2010 01:24 PM (WRtsc)
You're a meteorologist, or you love my wife for being a meteorologist?
And no way I could take that the wrong way- my wife is a six-foot-tall former television personality who left TV because 1) she's a scientist, not a talking head, and 2) got fed up with the same shit we bitch about with TV news- not the least of which is the overhyping of WE'RE ALL GONNA DIE!!!! ELEVENTY!!!111!!!! every time a storm begins to spin up.
My wife is f'ing hot, and I might be more offended if you didn't love her.
One other thing that's worth noting, by the way- turn on The Weather Channel (brought to you now by NBC) and watch them run NOTHING but insurance commercials while there's severe weather. I used to work for a sister station of theirs (same ownership), and it was quite an education.
Posted by: tmi3rd at September 01, 2010 01:28 PM (WRtsc)
If you wait until you are under a watch everyone will have emptied the shelves.Fill the car with gas now.
Bring anything in that will be moved by high wind. This would include, well, anything. You'd be surprised at the size and weight of the objects that will be thrown by a hurricane if you haven't seen it before. All lawn furniture, etcetera. During Ike I left out 2ea 25 pound concrete blocks. They were blown across the yard.
Your choice on evacuation. If you have a newer home it probably has hurricane upgrades like strapping the house to the foundation, hurricane garage door and whatnot. The type of damage you can expect depends on the storm of course, but telephone poles and trees broken in half, billboards blown down, street lights dangling in the street by their wires, that sort of thing.
Remember, evacuating is dangerous too. We had an evacuation a few years ago and 21 people died on the road due to no available gas, no water, cars on fire, that sort of thing. You gotta think about this one.
Posted by: CoastalIkeSurvivor at September 01, 2010 01:31 PM (4w47S)
best advice is stay in place if you trust your safety, seek shelter on a military base if you are not and are able to get on post, if you feel unsure and want to leave leave now.....
not tomorrow after work.
Now.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 01:35 PM (kq1lG)
Just give thanks that you don't have 95 degree weather if you lose your electricity.
Yeh, having a fireplace is a help in cold weather when you lose the power. In hot weather when we've lost power, we've either spend a lot of time outside (see MUD ranting above) or gone somewhere with power.
Posted by: Mama AJ at September 01, 2010 01:35 PM (XdlcF)
Remember, evacuating is dangerous too. We had an evacuation a few years ago and 21 people died on the road due to no available gas, no water, cars on fire, that sort of thing.
Even having one signal out and idiots on the road is not fun. If you stay home, stay home!
Oh, what do morons do after a tornado, with no power for a day or more? Well, in my neighborhood, they drink all their beer before it gets warm, happily sharing it with neighbors and walk around with their chainsaw and massacre helpfully trim trees for people.
Posted by: Mama AJ at September 01, 2010 01:41 PM (XdlcF)
Oh, refill your medicine now if that's an issue. And fill your bathtubs with water to use to flush the toilet.
What? You pour a big pot full of water in the toilet when you go number 2 and that flushes it.
No, I'm not going to explain how a fucking toilet works. Pay attention. You only flush for number 2, flushing for number 1 wastes water.
I assume I don't need to explain to this group that the government isn't going to rescue your ass. Be prepared for the worst.
Posted by: CoastalIkeSurvivor at September 01, 2010 01:43 PM (4w47S)
was the same in Ohio and before the storms hit in southwest Louisiana....
New orleans had celebratory looting.....
"cultural quirks"
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 01:44 PM (kq1lG)
???
Gloria doesn't count? It ripped off our roof and downed hundred-year-old elms.
And we're 20 miles north of the Sound.
Posted by: goy at September 01, 2010 01:45 PM (AfU1B)
Posted by: Tami at September 01, 2010 01:48 PM (VuLos)
Posted by: Mama AJ at September 01, 2010 01:55 PM (XdlcF)
Posted by: kqb29 at September 01, 2010 01:56 PM (6nm4O)
Sorry. "Significant" is an iffy term- in the tmi3rd lexicon, that's supposed to mean Category 3 or above. When Gloria and Floyd hit, they were weaker storms.
Of course, that's the definition of a "weak" hurricane... it's like getting hit by an eighteen-wheeler only going 25 instead of 50.
Posted by: tmi3rd at September 01, 2010 01:56 PM (WRtsc)
there is some opportunity for that I suppose down in leesville it was mostly neighbors and friends helping each other after katrina....
in ohio it is blocks helping themselves.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 01:58 PM (kq1lG)
Posted by: kqb29 at September 01, 2010 01:59 PM (6nm4O)
Deval Patrick launches a category 5 Idiocy Storm says of Beck Rally, "it's a free country I wish it weren't"
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 02:01 PM (kq1lG)
Posted by: CoastalIkeSurvivor at September 01, 2010 02:11 PM (4w47S)
Posted by: NJRob at September 01, 2010 02:11 PM (nKjkt)
Posted by: JackStraw at September 01, 2010 02:13 PM (VW9/y)
yes....seriously.
DC was hurt during the war of 1812 by a hurricane and drainage is worse now not better.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 02:15 PM (kq1lG)
I remember being a newbie in the navy. Just reported to my ship, a small destroyer escort, in norfolk virginia with a major hurricane bearing down on us. Was shocked to find out navy ships put to sea during hurricanes. Met the cap[tain for a few minutes to be welcomed aboard. mentioned that my mother would not be happy to hear I was going out to sea. Captain thanked me for giving him the best laugh he had all day...then told me to turn two!
Needless to say the next few days were more than intresting. By the time it was done i felt I had gone 13 rounds with a ranked heavyweight!
Posted by: Bob T at September 01, 2010 02:31 PM (SzKHs)
Once you get put under evacuation order do not leave your house if you are sheltering in place. They will be forcing all traffic onto outbound lanes and will force you to leave. Close the house up and make it look like nobody is home.
Snuggle up and enjoy your last few hours of power.
Posted by: CoastalIkeSurvivor at September 01, 2010 02:47 PM (4w47S)
Posted by: Incoherent leftist talking point guy at September 01, 2010 04:09 PM (8/KZN)
Posted by: richard mcenroe at September 01, 2010 04:09 PM (Hsl16)
Posted by: richard mcenroe at September 01, 2010 04:18 PM (Hsl16)
Posted by: 5th Level Fighter at September 01, 2010 04:55 PM (SgL5z)
They're... okay kits, but a good start if you don't want to take the time to research & assemble your own.
Posted by: Darkmage at September 01, 2010 06:43 PM (Iw4ok)
Posted by: Corona at September 01, 2010 06:50 PM (woZIc)
Posted by: Corona at September 01, 2010 06:53 PM (woZIc)
@ nevergiveup at September 01, 2010 04:39 PM (U5btG)
"1 So lemme get this straight, screw the peoples in Long Island since most of them are Liberals, but how is NJ gonna be? Should I stock up on Tequila?"
Goddammit yes! You always stock up on tequila!
And hotpockets!
And hookers!
Forget the hotpockets!
Posted by: memomachine at September 01, 2010 08:03 PM (MwCol)
IRA Darth Aggie-
You're a meteorologist, or you love my wife for being a meteorologist?
Yes, and yes. Now that I find out she's 6' tall, I'm really smitten. But as a wise guy once said, she's your problem not mine. Since I no longer work in the field, if a lawyer can be disbarred, can it be said that I've been disgusted?
As far as TWC, I haven't watched them since, oh, I think when Heidi Cullen said that people like me should be rounded up and tried for not believing in AGW. But not being able to watch Jim "I'm getting blown, aren't you jealous" "Mr. GQ" Cantore on some beach somewhere is just a bonus.
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie at September 02, 2010 07:07 AM (1hM1d)
Posted by: tambour at October 17, 2010 05:20 AM (akHhg)
Posted by: custom nhl jerseys at January 26, 2011 11:26 PM (P77gS)
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Posted by: nevergiveup at September 01, 2010 12:39 PM (U5btG)