Ace of Spades HQ

October 19, 2010

Geraghty: 117
— Ace

Well, that's the number of Democratic seats in play; and therefore pretty much the outer limit of possible Republican gains. (But I don't think he's crediting people like John Dennis with a real chance of unseating Nancy Pelosi, either, so the absolute max might be five or seven higher.)

117 isn't anything like a prediction. Just something to think about, and maybe do more than think about.

More on those 117 potential new untainted, Tea Party representatives here.

Posted by: Ace at 01:53 PM | Comments (80)
Post contains 82 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Time to GOTV and make it a reality.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at October 19, 2010 01:54 PM (rMhm7)

2 Did the blog just eat my comment?

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at October 19, 2010 01:56 PM (rMhm7)

3 Yep. Commented yesterday the list should be larger.

Posted by: Editor at October 19, 2010 01:56 PM (pUfK9)

4 This means nothing! I always hang up on pollsters, and early voting, and cell phones, and Reichmussen!

Posted by: Typical lib response at October 19, 2010 01:56 PM (ZwpQ8)

5 Love the "Won't Get Fooled Again" button. But could you have a sound effect of something dipped in pudding? Peut-etre Pelosi's botox syringe?

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 19, 2010 01:56 PM (9Cooa)

6 Man I need to quit sniffing glue.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at October 19, 2010 01:56 PM (rMhm7)

7 This kind of stuff gets me all hot and bothered.

I LIKE it!

Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo ( NJConservative) at October 19, 2010 01:57 PM (LH6ir)

8 Oh, but just so you're all aware, I'm kinda crazy and overly emotional.

Posted by: Editor at October 19, 2010 01:57 PM (pUfK9)

9 Rove said this morn that in normal wave elections, 70% of competitive seats go to the opposition party. So 117 times 70% would net about 82.

Also Hoyer tells opponent "I am coming after you".

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 19, 2010 01:57 PM (ruu60)

10 The wave is over.

Posted by: Gweggy at October 19, 2010 01:59 PM (osFsP)

11 Badly OT, but you gotta see this to believe it... Jerry Brown is promising free college tuition for illegals:

Â“We have enough wealth to continue to have a great university and get every kid into this school that can qualify. Now when I say every young man and young woman, I mean everyone Â– whether they are documented or not. If they went to school, they ought to be here.Â”

http://tinyurl.com/34dlmbf
http://tinyurl.com/32vj3p6

Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 19, 2010 01:59 PM (ALpfT)

12 Dems + 45

Posted by: St Randy's School of Bartending at October 19, 2010 01:59 PM (LLZiU)

Guess I need to revise my guess for the pick-the-numbers contest. I was thinking 50 would be doable. Either all these pie in the sky numbers are just that or I'm a much bigger pessimist than I thought. Hopefully the latter.

Posted by: TiredWench at October 19, 2010 01:59 PM (oPceJ)

14 The wailing in November is going to be EPIC!

Now, if they can just figure out what to so with it.

Posted by: Quilly Mammoth at October 19, 2010 01:59 PM (BOAqG)

15 Rove says you're unsophisticated, folks. So where does y'all get off counting up to funny numbers like 117?

Posted by: George Orwell at October 19, 2010 02:00 PM (AZGON)

16 Posted by: Brian in New Orleans at October 19, 2010 05:59 PM (ALpfT) Does that mean I can get a free education at the Sorbonne or Cambridge? Who's crazier; Moonbeam or anyone who will make him governor, AGAIN?!

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 19, 2010 02:00 PM (9Cooa)

17 What this means is that 117 of the polled races are in question. How many aren't being polled? Like 250? Ought to be a few more pickups in there somewhere.

Posted by: The Pricker! at October 19, 2010 02:01 PM (pKpfd)

18 All this up and down news is making me crazy! I don't think I can wait till Nov. 2. Of course I'm in Ca. and Whitman and Fiorina are both going down according to new polls. God, I hope they're wrong! Moonbeam and ma'am? Vomit inducing.

Posted by: Donna at October 19, 2010 02:01 PM (/9pqf)

19 Rove said this morn that in normal wave elections, 70% of competitive seats go to the opposition party. So 117 times 70% would net about 82.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 19, 2010 05:57 PM (ruu60)

So, then what happens in a year like this? 'Cause it's not a "normal" wave election.

Posted by: Editor at October 19, 2010 02:02 PM (pUfK9)

20 I had the libtard that is running for state rep in my district stop by my casa today.

He gave me a flier, and blabbed about jobs.

I looked it over, and nowhere on it was his party affiliation.

He asked if he could put a yard sign up.

I said "no".

Then I tazed him, and threw him into my hastily constructed victim-pit.

Just doing my part.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at October 19, 2010 02:03 PM (rMhm7)

21 The rules say if Republicans take the House, it's a GOP loss because now the people will hate the new incumbents and Obama will make you scapegoats. But if the Republicans lose the House, it's a loss for the GOP because they won't have a majority. Just make sure you face it: You lose no matter what. That is just the objective, journalistic truth.

Posted by: The MFM at October 19, 2010 02:04 PM (AZGON)

22 I thought the meme this year was that it was an anti-incumbent year. When did it change?

Posted by: MrCaniac at October 19, 2010 02:04 PM (aaULJ)

23 I'm opening the pudding . . .

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 19, 2010 02:05 PM (zgZzy)

24 Rove said this morn that in normal wave elections, 70% of competitive seats go to the opposition party. So 117 times 70% would net about 82.

I'm not convinced that there have been enough wave elections to be able to define normal. The number is encouraging, but let's not start stocking each others cupboards just yet.

Posted by: Ted Kennedy's Gristle Encased Head at October 19, 2010 02:05 PM (+lsX1)

25 Just heard on the Radio Sherriff Joe at a Patty Murray Event "Reports of the demise of the Democratic Party are Premature!". No better person to say it.

Posted by: Minuteman at October 19, 2010 02:05 PM (264X9)

26 I'm gonna party like it's 1773!!!

Posted by: Bosk at October 19, 2010 02:06 PM (pUO5u)

27 Nontroversy! The Democrats will sweep every election in two weeks, wingnuts! Buy a calendar!

Posted by: Charuls Jonzan at October 19, 2010 02:06 PM (zgZzy)

28 KABOOM!

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at October 19, 2010 02:07 PM (rMhm7)

29 Chuck Todd said about 110 were in play (where the incumbant would win less than 55%). So it's not out of the question.

Posted by: Abby Adams at October 19, 2010 02:07 PM (pLTLS)

30 I'm looking forward to more and more "Insane Obama" photographs, especially after November 2.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 19, 2010 02:07 PM (AZGON)

31 Just heard on the Radio Sherriff Joe at a Patty Murray Event "Reports of the demise of the Democratic Party are Premature!". No better person to say it.

Posted by: Minuteman at October 19, 2010 06:05 PM (264X9)

How did they get the two smartest people in the World on the same stage at one time? Incredible.

Posted by: Gwen Ifill at October 19, 2010 02:08 PM (pUfK9)

32 Rowe's a little bitch.

Posted by: Dr Spank at October 19, 2010 02:09 PM (LLZiU)

33 Uhmmm.... someone broke the blog.
Getting this on homepage.

Parse error: syntax error, unexpected '<' in /home/ace/public_html/skins/1/3c-body.php on line 27

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at October 19, 2010 02:09 PM (rMhm7)

34 I will dip my balls in pudding if we win 40 seats. If we win 50-80, I'll stir the pudding with my dick. If it's more than 80, I'll directly inject pudding into my scrotum.

Posted by: Soona at October 19, 2010 02:09 PM (k+EMj)

35 @34 We appreciate the enthusiasm, if not the details. Heh.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 19, 2010 02:11 PM (AZGON)

36 The home page has been wiped out, Ace. I assume by whatever you're latest news story post is about. Something about "Parse error: syntax error, unexpected '<' in /home/ace/public_html/skins/1/3c-body.php on line 27"

Are you trying to post lesbian porn, again? Well, it does mention skins and body unless it's a hobo reference.

Posted by: andycanuck at October 19, 2010 02:11 PM (eQtPf)

37 >>Uhmmm.... someone broke the blog.<<

We're stuck on this thread forever.

Let loose the hounds.

Posted by: SlaveDog at October 19, 2010 02:11 PM (H6Jyg)

38 I will dip my balls in pudding if we win 40 seats. If we win 50-80, I'll stir the pudding with my dick. If it's more than 80, I'll directly inject pudding into my
scrotum.

eeeewww , just eeeewww.. What flavor?

Posted by: Donna at October 19, 2010 02:11 PM (/9pqf)

39 I will dip my balls in pudding if we win 40 seats. If we win 50-80, I'll stir the pudding with my dick. If it's more than 80, I'll directly inject pudding into my scrotum.

Posted by: Soona at October 19, 2010 06:09 PM (k+EMj)

Be very careful. I've seen someone say, "I'll shave my scrote* if Joey Cora hits a home run, right now." And Joey Cora hit that home run.

*This was before all that metrosexual bullshit was popular with the feghy college kids.

Posted by: Editor at October 19, 2010 02:12 PM (pUfK9)

40 15 Rove says you're unsophisticated, folks. So where does y'all get off counting up to funny numbers like 117?

Posted by: George Orwell at October 19, 2010 06:00 PM (AZGON)

George I think you have Rove all wrong. I think he may be educatible. But it might take a few lessons. So, what you say I come by about, say, 7:15 tonight then we go over to Rove's house and give him a fat elitist ass whoopin'? I think he's needing one. And I'm keeping my schedule clear in case he needs another one.

Posted by: Minuteman at October 19, 2010 02:12 PM (264X9)

41 but let's not start stocking each others cupboards just yet.

Posted by: Ted Kennedy's Gristle Encased Head at October 19, 2010 06:05 PM (+lsX1)

That's an interwesting euphemism.

Posted by: Bwaney Fwank at October 19, 2010 02:14 PM (264X9)

42 I will dip my balls in pudding drink if we win 40 seats. If we win 50-80, I'll stir the pudding with my dick. Drink. If it's more than 80, I'll directly inject pudding into my
scrotum. Drink a lot more.

Posted by: Bosk at October 19, 2010 02:16 PM (pUO5u)

43 Â“We have enough wealth to continue to have a great university and get every kid into this school that can qualify. Now when I say every young man and young woman, I mean everyone Â– whether they are documented or not. If they went to school, they ought to be here.Â”

Vote Jerry Brown. It's like a bullet in the head.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 19, 2010 02:16 PM (xxgag)

44 damn, only 1 from Md. I wonder how Wargotz and Ehrlich are doing.

Posted by: joeindc44 at October 19, 2010 02:16 PM (QxSug)

45 So, what you say I come by about, say, 7:15 tonight then we go over to Rove's house and give him a fat elitist ass whoopin'? I think he's needing one. And I'm keeping my schedule clear in case he needs another one. Okay, I like constructive ideas. But I get to do the Dutch rub and paint bowling ball holes on his scalp.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 19, 2010 02:16 PM (AZGON)

46 Give me liberty or give me death, ummm.

Posted by: Patrick Henry at October 19, 2010 02:18 PM (bN5ZU)

47 Patrick Henry: give me liberty or give me death, ummm,

Posted by: Gwen Ifill at October 19, 2010 02:18 PM (d+Pcv)

48 Â“We have enough wealth to continue to have a great university and get every kid into this school that can qualify." And the Calholes in this fucking state are ready to re-elect Moonbeam to another term. OOH! Meg Whitman 'Publican Icky! We have enough wealth Has Brown even heard of the goddamn BUDGET? And this turd in roughly humanoid shape calls himself fiscally responsible?

Posted by: George Orwell at October 19, 2010 02:18 PM (AZGON)

I seem to have taken a wrong turn here. Is PBS to the left over there . . . past that river of yellow journalism?

Thanks, Gwen Ifill.

Posted by: journolist at October 19, 2010 02:19 PM (O/NP5)

50 It really is a lot like 1994 - except then we had a senate/congress that had been in power and Dim controlled for almost 4 *decades* - talk about entrenched, career politicians. Contract with America 2.0 And this time I'm involved - they just all better make darn sure and deliver if we put them in there, that's all.

Posted by: Anniee451 at October 19, 2010 02:20 PM (kwojf)

In the immortal words of the PBS Newshour anchor of smart:

Ifill, therefore I Gwen.

Posted by: journolist at October 19, 2010 02:21 PM (O/NP5)

52 >snarky leftist mode on< On, woe, the great wrinkling of the great pants crease of America! Where will America be without the starch that is our elected elite class!!!!!! >snarks offs<

Posted by: joeindc44 at October 19, 2010 02:21 PM (QxSug)

Okay, I like constructive ideas.

But I get to do the Dutch rub and paint bowling ball holes on his scalp.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 19, 2010 06:16 PM (AZGON)

Sure, as long as we make him cry " Aqua Buddha" when we make him tell us "who's yo daddy?!"

Posted by: Bwaney Fwank at October 19, 2010 02:23 PM (264X9)

54 Unsock for 53

Posted by: Minuteman at October 19, 2010 02:23 PM (264X9)

55 Is it psy-ops if its true?

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 19, 2010 02:26 PM (gMzAL)

56 I foresee a new meme starting up, the Gwen Ifill.

Posted by: Minuteman at October 19, 2010 02:26 PM (264X9)

57 Minuteman: I foresee a new meme starting up, the Gwen Ifill, mmmmm.

Posted by: Gwen Ifill at October 19, 2010 02:27 PM (264X9)

58 Paul Anka: "I slice like a f'n hammer," ummmm

Posted by: Gwen Ifill at October 19, 2010 02:30 PM (264X9)

59 Gwen, open wide.

Posted by: Balls dipped in pudding at October 19, 2010 02:30 PM (pUO5u)

60 The correct way to assess how many are in play is to assume all are, and then subtract for each affirmatively believed not to be in play...

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 19, 2010 02:31 PM (gMzAL)

61 I have an Auto Ifill on my browser, and it's way more accurate than the Gwen Ifill.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 19, 2010 02:32 PM (AZGON)

62 I always pick random quotes out of political speeches and add "ummm" to the end of them, doesn't everybody? It signifies how very ordinary the quote is, rather than "there she goes again (eyeroll)." How could anyone think otherwise?

Posted by: Gwen Ifill at October 19, 2010 02:33 PM (bN5ZU)

63 Can you prove 117 seats aren't in play? Wait, wait. Let me take that back. I gotta think about this.

Posted by: David Axelrod at October 19, 2010 02:33 PM (AZGON)

64 Gwen, yeah Ifilled that bitch with my cougar condom sheathed cock

Posted by: Dick Cheney at October 19, 2010 02:34 PM (9221z)

65 "This is the moment when the oceans stopped rising, ummmm" "Clearly the police acted stupidly, ummmm" "Your premiums will go down 3000%, ummmm"

Posted by: the brilliance of Gwen Ifill at October 19, 2010 02:36 PM (AZGON)

66 You can ifill some of the people some of the time, and ifill all of the people some of the time, but you cannot ifill all of the people all of the time, ummm

Posted by: Abraham Lincoln at October 19, 2010 02:36 PM (bN5ZU)

67 @34 If we win 50-80, I'll stir the pudding with my dick.

Note to self: Skip dessert at Soona's house.

Posted by: Y-not at October 19, 2010 02:37 PM (osFsP)

68 if we win 50-80, I'll ~~stir~~ make the pudding with my dick. Come on, you know you morons were thinking that too.

Posted by: George Orwell at October 19, 2010 02:39 PM (AZGON)

69 44 damn, only 1 from Md. I wonder how Wargotz and Ehrlich are doing. Posted by: joeindc44 at October 19, 2010 06:16 PM

Unfortunately, I think O'Malley is up by 8'ish in all the polls.

I don't know about Wargotz.

The one I'm curious about is Lollar v Hoyer in MD-5. I haven't been able to find any polls and from what I'm reading it sounds as though Hoyer is campaigning for the first time in a very long time.

Oh, and Californians... I got my absentee ballot today, so one more tiny drop in the bucket.

I still kind of think Fiorina can win. And, if she wins, I think that means Whitman can win, because it means people are not just voting straight D ticket.

Posted by: Y-not at October 19, 2010 02:43 PM (osFsP)

70 I watched network coverage in 1994 and it was the sweetest night of television I'd ever seen as a conservative. This year is going to make that look like, oh, a temper tantrum. The floor is 70 gains. Cannot wait to watch their heads explode!

Posted by: Lana at October 19, 2010 02:47 PM (MpHql)

71 Buck is only up by 1 in Colorado.

Posted by: Stupid Fucking Greg at October 19, 2010 02:47 PM (Snu7z)

72 It's not just the quantity but the quality of candidates! GOTV!

Posted by: Steven W. at October 19, 2010 02:51 PM (FS8wK)

73 I have a list very much like this, in handy table form and with links to all of the Republican challengers, at FireFifty. 125 Dem incumbent races, 82 seat gross pickup so far.

Posted by: motionview at October 19, 2010 02:59 PM (DB2Rn)

74 front's already arrivin'......

( early voting began yesterday in several states )

Math 2010 ---- 117 ( or so ) = 1894

President Cleveland could not be reached for comment

Posted by: SantaRosaStan, aka Aqua Buddha at October 19, 2010 03:11 PM (dS2wQ)

75 So Chris, you don't see Lollar getting any uptick from his campaigning in the Charles and the part of Prince George to lessen the wipeout there? Just interested in your opinion as I've only briefly read about this one.

Posted by: Lana at October 19, 2010 03:42 PM (MpHql)

76 BTW, fascinating tsunami predictions and poll analysis over at The Strata-Sphere blog. To lengthy to quote here, but the discussion of the independent trends were something I've been thinking since the first of the year along with the centrist Democrats who are also soured on the liberal wing of their party. Will they merely stay home or will they actually vote conservative? Who knows?

Posted by: Lana at October 19, 2010 03:49 PM (MpHql)

77 I not sure about this, but I am going to a fund raiser for Renee Ellmers tomorrow.

I think we sweep all the NC contest that are contested, except Watts district which is 80% Black. You guessed that Watts is Black right?

We might even take out Price, the Chapel Hill commie. OK, I dreaming now.

Will report in after fundraiser, I hear she is HOT.

Posted by: Kemp at October 19, 2010 05:00 PM (AQxTm)

78 That 117 only includes two of the four races in Connecticut that are in play. CT-5 and CT-4 are almost certainly GOP pickups, both candidates are polling ahead and Gerahgty lists them in his 117. However he does not say anything about CT-1 or CT-2. CAC has CT-2 as a tossup and CT-1 as only leaning. CT-2 is the eastern ~1/3 of the state and was held recently by a Republican, Ron Simmons (who ran in the primary against McMahon.) CT-1 is the Hartford area and is currently held by John Larson who is running scared. He is currently the number three of four ranking Dem and Pelosi is not popular around here.

Posted by: Have Blue at October 19, 2010 08:15 PM (mV+es)

79 OK, so a veto-proof majority in the House takes 290 seats.

To get that, Republicans will have to flip 112 seats. Numerology is our friend.

We need 112 on 11/2.

Posted by: VekTor at October 21, 2010 04:05 PM (N7DZ0)

80 Buy cell phone, tv mobile phone, china phone

Posted by: china phone at November 07, 2010 06:18 AM (FJ0ww)

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