October 25, 2010

Geraghty's Obi-Wan: Four Scenarios, Ranging From Disappointment to Super-Wave
— Ace

In a below post, not terribly well received, I tried to fight complacency and the idea that this is just going to happen. It's not "just going to happen." Things don't "just happen." People make them happen. Or they don't.

Regarding enthusiasm, it's great that so many of us are enthused to vote, but our enthusiastic votes count just as much as their indifferent votes. You don't get to vote three or four times just because you're enthusiastic.

Unless you're a Democrat, of course.

There is one way that one person's high enthusiasm translates into more votes: If he can activate, convince, persuade, or cajole a non-voter or non-enthusiastic potential voter to cast his vote his way.

That's the way that high enthusiasm translates into higher vote tallies -- when the enthusiastic share their enthusiasm with the unenthusiastic, and get the unenthusiastic to cast votes, too.

Those votes count just the same as ours, of course. But now we've got more.

I don't know why anyone would say this, but someone objected that GOTV efforts don't matter. Bullshit. That is excuse-making on stilts. GOTV is the entire name of the game. That's how we won in 2004 -- the Democrat who noted that Republican voters just kept pouring into suburban Ohio polling places. "It was like Night of the Living Dead," he said, as the 2004 turn-out effort brought so many unlikely voters to the polls.

That's how the Democrats won in 2006 and 2008. That's why there's a Democrat currently in the King of Pork John Murtha's old seat.

This is how it's won. By turning out the vote. By identifying unlikely voters who are likely to vote Republican, if they just get off their asses and go down to the polling place and are confronted with the choice they've been not bothering to think about.

And that's what GOTV is about. It's about lending our enthusiasm to the unenthuiastic, to let them know our candidate's name so that the name isn't completely new and alien to them when they see it on the ballot, but rather familiar and reassuring. Giving them a little bit of bio of the candidate, so they have a quick bullet-point read on him (again, so he seems familiar), and his policy positions.

An indifferent voter will usually not vote for an unknown. It's our job to make the unknowns known to them.

This works. I've done it twice now-- once phone-banking, and once knocking on doors -- and in both cases I got unlikely voters to agree to vote. I sold them on the candidates. I assured them that if they voted, it would not be a throw-away, futile vote -- if we vote, we will win.

I didn't get a lot of people like that -- but I got about ten each time I did it. And a couple of times I got highly enthusiastic voters to in turn volunteer for the candidate -- in some cases, they want to volunteer themselves; they just don't know who to call.

In one case I got an old woman who sounded pretty pissed off. I asked her if she'd heard of Sean Bielat. "No," she said. Then she interrupted my pitch, and said to me, in a sort of hostile voice, "Tell me -- is he a Republican?"

"Yes he is," I said, in half-cringe.

"Then he's got my vote. I want them all out. All of them." After prodding her a bit I got her to commit to voting, which she hadn't planned on doing -- she didn't even know Frank had a credible opponent.

A marginal voter. An unlikely voter. Now a likely one.

That's what it's all about, especially in midterms. If our marginal voters, our loose-identifying conservatives turn out, and theirs do not, we win. If a lot of our marginal voters turn out, and theirs do not, we win big.

If they can manage to gin up their marginal voters -- blacks, hispanics, and union members are being most seriously targeted -- enough to offset the gains we're making, then we win, but only a little bit.

This is what worries me. That we have a once-in-a-lifetime chance to make a truly historic Change but we're going to squander the opportunity for failure of translating our thoughts into actual actions, and thereby, actual votes.

The Democratic base is in fact finally thinking about the election. The fact that they are only thinking about it now doesn't make their votes count less. We've been fired up since summer of 2009 but our votes will count precisely the same.

We need more votes. That simple: We need more votes. We have to turn out everyone who leans Republican to the polls.

Okay, so apologies for getting on people -- but my post wasn't just "reverse psychology." It's direct, forward psychology: Make a difference. Because if we don't, I promise you we will not get 60 seats. We will get what the more conservative estimates show -- somewhere between 40 and 50. And that will be... nice.

But it won't hurt the Democrats, and it won't repudiate Obama. It will not scare the shit out of everyone left that they had better begin considering voting for a repeal of ObamaCare.

That said, Geraghy's Obi-Wan sees it the same way, pretty much. It's hard to tell what's going to happen -- the Democrats may get bruised, the Democrats may get bloody, the Democrats may get battered, and the Democrats may get broken.

Obi-Wan: No, not much has changed — though the Battleground poll was interesting. More on that in a second. I just thought readers who will be reacting to every new poll over the next few days might want a larger guide that tries to put things in context – four ways this could go, and what to look for as the week progresses.

Jim: Four scenarios?

Obi-Wan: First, THE FADING-GOP WAVE SCENARIO: This one is easy. If the generic GOP lead starts to fade and this continues through the weekend to a few points or nearly even on Election Day, then the GOP makes gains in the House but fails to take control, and gains three or four in the Senate. (With disappointments in places like Pennsylvania, Colorado, California and maybe Nevada.)

Second, THE OKAY WAVE SCENARIO: Polling stays about where it is — with strong generic GOP lead (5 to 9 percentage points or more) as GOP leads in many Senate races stay roughly the same; in places like Washington, California and Connecticut, Democrat candidates either break 50 percent or keep a steady gap or widen it. Still, a wave election, with House gains of up to 50 or 60. But GOP fails at Senate control by two to four seats, which shows that (1) to some extent the Democrats’ strategy of individualizing senate rates with harsh negative attacks worked or (2) voters just chose to channel their anger at the Obama administration in their House voting but were discriminating – picking and choosing — in the Senate races.

Third, THE HAPPY-TIMES WAVE SCENARIO: Polling stays about where it is — with strong generic GOP lead between 5 and 9 and GOP Senate candidates in Washington, California, and Connecticut still within reach (6 to 9 points down.) There you would see House gains of up to 50 or 60 or a bit beyond, and it’s a wave election that really does lift all boats and the GOP takes the Senate by a vote or two.

Fourth, THE SUPERWAVE: House gains of 60 to 90, even beyond. Senate races carried along as GOP ends up with three or four vote margin in Senate.

That last possibility is the one I have my mind fixed on-- but it's an extraodinary thing. Extraordinary things do not happen without extraordinary efforts.

It's up to us. Waves don't just happen. We are thought-leaders -- hate to tell you, but you're the thought-leaders too. You're opinionated and informed, and, of course, passionate. What you do will determine what happens in eight short days.

As Winston Wolf's clam-fisherman great grandfather Wesley Wolf advised: Gentelmen, let's not start shucking each other's conchs just yet.

Posted by: Ace at 09:51 AM | Comments (96)
Post contains 1384 words, total size 9 kb.

1

I am Spartacus The Wave

 

-

Posted by: BumperStickerist at October 25, 2010 09:55 AM (h6mPj)

2 Ace bring me a sandwich

Posted by: blindgoose at October 25, 2010 09:56 AM (Qa624)

3 If a bunch of moron midgets do the wave, do they call it the ripple?

Posted by: blindgoose at October 25, 2010 09:57 AM (Qa624)

4 Great post, great movie.

The game isn't won because you like it.  You play to win the game.

Posted by: Doc at October 25, 2010 09:58 AM (KnIvY)

5 I agree. It is all about turn out. Convince everyone you know to vote!

Posted by: Dan at October 25, 2010 09:59 AM (1jzSs)

6 I'm in California and I say Carly takes it. That being said Whitman is DOA. They just didn't seem to like her and the "faux" maid-gate killed her.

Posted by: Donna at October 25, 2010 09:59 AM (/9pqf)

7 Fucking right Ace, GOTV is how we are going to beat the damn donks. 

Posted by: opus at October 25, 2010 09:59 AM (IebeI)

8 See, now, if you'd posted this first, then it would have been fine.  My response to the other post was along the lines of "well no shit this won't happen without help so why the hell are you yelling at the people who are trying to do something". 

Though, for the record, I did like the Wicket poster.

Posted by: alexthechick at October 25, 2010 10:00 AM (bQ5xy)

9
I think the dems are calling in every last favor with their pollster co-conspirators to suppress turnout.    It's not going to work, though.  People are too pissed off  by the democrat crimes.

Posted by: Dang Straights at October 25, 2010 10:01 AM (fx8sm)

10 As a conservative Republican, part of my philosophy is NOT to impose my will upon others. Unfortunately, it seems that these GOTV efforts will have precisely that pernicious effect. Would it be possible for me to participate in a phone-bank effort whereby I could dispassionately present the pros and cons of each candidate so that the voters could make an informed decision whether or not to vote? Since the target audience would already be familiar with the Republican side of things, I would merely present the merits of the Democratic opposition and explain the whiffs of impropriety, ignorance and extremism that have stained the GOP ballot this year. Sadly, will not be Getting-Myself-Out-To-Vote on November 2.

Posted by: Average Joe at October 25, 2010 10:01 AM (bN5ZU)

11 I'm in California and I say Carly takes it. That being said Whitman is DOA. They just didn't seem to like her and the "faux" maid-gate killed her. Posted by: Donna at October 25, 2010 01:59 PM (/9pqf) Well one thing we can "Maybe" hope for is some big wins early on the East Coast that depresses turnout on the left coast amongst liberals. Ya know the type that leave the Laker and Angels game early.

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 25, 2010 10:02 AM (0GFWk)

12 That being said Whitman is DOA. They just didn't seem to like her and the "faux" maid-gate killed her.

That's sad. I wish that hadn't worked, because it's so transparent, as to what it was supposed to do. She wasn't at fault, and most reasonable people know that. It's just absurd that something so stupid would work so well.

That just shows what we are up against.

Posted by: Jay in Ames at October 25, 2010 10:02 AM (UEEex)

13 I did NJ-12 two weeks ago, NJ-3 this past weekend, maybe I'll do NJ-6 this weekend.

Go to your local Republican Hdq, get the lists and go knocking door-to-door.

Posted by: Mr. Bingley at October 25, 2010 10:02 AM (OXWdU)

14
Are you saying we are the ones we have been waiting for?

Posted by: Soothsayer at October 25, 2010 10:03 AM (uFokq)

15
If not now, when?

Posted by: Soothsayer at October 25, 2010 10:03 AM (uFokq)

16
If not us, who?

Posted by: Soothsayer at October 25, 2010 10:03 AM (uFokq)

17 There is absolutely nothing I can do to stop the Republican wave that is coming, so I will not be giving over a million dollars to PBR, or funding any other liberal fronts.  I promise.

Posted by: George Soros at October 25, 2010 10:03 AM (vEoy2)

18 One quibble with this post: I'd like these 4 scenarios relabeled.

Scenario 1: The Teabag
Scenario 2: The Dirty Sanchez
Scenario 3: The Rusty Trombone
Scenario 4: The 2010 Limited Edition Red White and Blue Cleveland Steamer

Posted by: Warden at October 25, 2010 10:05 AM (fE6tn)

19 GOTV is going to be the name of the game in the swing states. In D+ states particularly (like CA and NV), where Donk registration outstrips GOP by a good margin. We've got to have a good finishing kick, because if the Donks smell blood in the water they'll rush the polls late in the day, hoping to blunt the GOP wave. It's happened before. It can't be close -- if it's not close, they can't cheat. I want a blowout, a tsunami, and epic crushing of Donk hopes and dreams. If we let it get to counting a few hundred votes, the Donks will keep counting until they win. That's how Minnesota ended up with Senator Bozo the Clown (nee Franken).

Posted by: Monty at October 25, 2010 10:05 AM (he/dn)

20

Hope 'n' change?

How about "open change?"  That's what most places call their change to next year's health plan.  It's on peoples' minds.  Remind them how it was passed.  Remind them of demonpass.  Remind them of having to pass it "to know what's in it."

What heartens me is that even in these close races in D states, the incumbents are well under 50%.  Remember that you voted for the jerk last time.  You aren't committing to them again?  Not a good sign. 

Posted by: AmishDude at October 25, 2010 10:06 AM (T0NGe)

21 *extremely important caveat* For those of you who are going door-to-door make sure you partner up with someone. You never know whose door you might be knocking on.

I don't want any morons disappearing.

Posted by: Mr. Bingley at October 25, 2010 10:07 AM (OXWdU)

22 Scenario 1: The Rickroll
Scenario 2: The Lemon Party
Scenario 3: The Goatse
Scenario 4: Two Girls and a Cup

Posted by: Warden at October 25, 2010 10:08 AM (fE6tn)

23 Joe Bite Me says that conservatives are spending $200 billion on this election.  If we take that $200 billion and divide by our population of 300,000,000, we get $666.66 for every man, woman, and child in the country.  That's right.  666. We're riding with Satan.  

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 25, 2010 10:09 AM (xxgag)

24 If not now, when?  I say Tuesday.
If not us, who?  The Ghostbusters?

Posted by: AllenG at October 25, 2010 10:10 AM (8y9MW)

25 Scenario 1: The Farve
Scenario 2: The Rothwell
Scenario 3: The Bryant
Scenario 4: The Tyson

Posted by: Warden at October 25, 2010 10:12 AM (fE6tn)

26 That being said Whitman is DOA. They just didn't seem to like her and the "faux" maid-gate killed her.

Meanwhile, it is perfectly OK to employ illegals to canvas for Murray and today we find out that non-citizens should vote.

Posted by: WalrusRex at October 25, 2010 10:12 AM (xxgag)

27 I think you are going to see the elderly come out in droves (no, I don't mean zombie droves).  Most are angry at every level with Obama and the dems, and being raised in an arguably more virtuous time-period in American history, many of them take voting very seriously.

However, as swarmy as he is, I think Dick Morris is right on this issue:  the younger set of moderates and conservatives have to be reminded exactly what is going to happen regarding healthcare if they sit this election out.  If that entitlement does not get dislodged through congressional defunding immediately, it will burrow down into the fabric of American culture like an Alabama tick.  We will never get rid of it until we look like the U.K.

Posted by: DCox at October 25, 2010 10:13 AM (vEoy2)

28 Ace, thank you for your work on this, especially for the past few weeks. Your sticky, unwashed, hands-on efforts have been a motivating force among the bloggish world, and that guy who lives under the overpass on Sixth and Industrial. I'm on temporary assignment here in Joe Manchin Land (West, by God Virginia) and I can see this Big Coal state is NOT happy with Obama. We CAN tip this island over and make sure the. Bottom-dwelllers finally have their day.

Posted by: K~Bob's new Blackberry at October 25, 2010 10:13 AM (POpk8)

29

Scenario 1: The Bay City Rollers

Scenario 2: The Jonas Brothers

Scenario 3: Emerson, Lake and Palmer

Scenario 4: The Beatles

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at October 25, 2010 10:13 AM (3jxR/)

30 There's more enthusiasm on our side. Enough, in most cases, to overcome the inevitable Dem fraud and kick them in the nuts. A little GOTV by all conservatives = big fucking win.

Posted by: fiatboomer at October 25, 2010 10:13 AM (0Wf6c)

31 A man becomes preeminent, he's expected to have enthusiasms. Enthusiasms, enthusiasms... What are mine? What draws my admiration? What is that which gives me joy? Baseball! A man stands alone at the plate. This is the time for what? For individual achievement. There he stands alone. But in the field, what? Part of a team. Teamwork... Looks, throws, catches, hustles. Part of one big team. Bats himself the live-long day, Babe Ruth, Ty Cobb, and so on. If his team don't field... what is he? You follow me? No one. Sunny day, the stands are full of fans. What does he have to say? I'm goin' out there for myself. But... I get nowhere unless the team wins.

Posted by: ChicagoJedi at October 25, 2010 10:13 AM (WZFkG)

32 Any conservative who sits out this election is no friend of mine and I don't want to hear them bitching about anything from the sidelines

Posted by: nevergiveup at October 25, 2010 10:14 AM (0GFWk)

33 Ace, no need to backtrack on the earlier post; it's very necessary to get that word out.  This is just part II in a GOTV opus.


re: Soros@18... is it pabst or pro bullriding that is the communist front?

Posted by: A.G. at October 25, 2010 10:15 AM (oAVyq)

34 13 That being said Whitman is DOA. They just didn't seem to like her and the "faux" maid-gate killed her.

That's sad. I wish that hadn't worked, because it's so transparent, as to what it was supposed to do. She wasn't at fault, and most reasonable people know that. It's just absurd that something so stupid would work so well.

That just shows what we are up against.

I am not  so sure it was the maid thing. Have you seen/heard the ads Brown is running about her? They make her look HORRIBLE and her ads are wimpy, "be nice" ones. They keep running one that makes it look like she totally plagiarized Schwarzenegger. And there is another one that is probably even worse, but I tune it out, so I forget what is says.  Bad campaigning on her part.  And yes, lots of California residents are that stupid enough to believe his ads, and they are not old enough to remember him.

One dem vote for Whitman will be my dad, an old southern Democrat, who does remember Brown.

a cali lurker

Posted by: mrstkdsd at October 25, 2010 10:15 AM (SJM8G)

35 I still need someone to explain to me why this isn't all for naught? Because from where I sit, unless (perhaps even if) we get a "super wave" situation, the predictable outcomes will be: 1. Social cons reassert themselves with predictable tensions coming between them and the "I want the government to leave us all the fuck alone" types. 2. The Republican elites (represented in blogdom by: NRO, Power Line, RedState, and Hugh Hewitt) rush to advance Mitt Romney as the R candidate for 2012. Whatever his merits, that man IS NOT the guy to fight against Obamacare. 3. The lefty media then has two years to blame everything on the Republicans. 4. The Republicans pussy out and "amend it not end it" on the health care. (For the record: The conservative solution is to create Federal incentives for the states to experiment with health care delivery). 5. PORKALOOZA! Wash, rinse, repeat.

Posted by: GOnzo at October 25, 2010 10:16 AM (nTd0a)

36 Again with ace saving the world. THANK YOU SIR!

Posted by: Rush Fan Numero Uno at October 25, 2010 10:18 AM (zNxf/)

37

#37

My sentiments exactly.

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at October 25, 2010 10:19 AM (tuZ6Z)

38

"That just shows what we are up against."

The stupid is strong in some. I feel sorry for conservatives in Cali. Every day must be hell.


 

Posted by: Bosk at October 25, 2010 10:19 AM (pUO5u)

39 Get all your flakey dem friend voters trashed the night before the election, help lose their car keys . tiptoe out the door early to vote.

Posted by: willow at October 25, 2010 10:19 AM (iAu/o)

40 Scenario 1: The Eric Massa Tickle
Scenario 2: The Kennedy-Dodd Sandwich
Scenario 3: The Monica Cigar
Scenario 4: The Client #9 Special

Posted by: Warden at October 25, 2010 10:22 AM (fE6tn)

41

I find it interesting that Carly is doing better by sticking to her conservative credentials while Whitman has leaned further & further left as her campaign has progressed.

Glad I don't live in Cali, because I would have to not only hold my nose to vote for Whitman, but open the car door and vomit on the way home.

 

Posted by: Steph at October 25, 2010 10:26 AM (ZfkPl)

42 Scenario 1: The Partridge Family
Scenario 2: Sha na na
Scenario 3: The Ramones
Scenario 4: Black Sabbarth

Posted by: Warden at October 25, 2010 10:26 AM (fE6tn)

43 Black Sabbath.

Damn it.

Posted by: Warden at October 25, 2010 10:27 AM (fE6tn)

44 I'm poll observing next week. The stuck in the hood. Again. Not too concerned. I really think '08 was an anomaly. At least this 'Republican Saltine' hopes so.

Posted by: laceyunderalls at October 25, 2010 10:28 AM (pLTLS)

45 You play to win the game.

Posted by: Doc at October 25, 2010 01:58 PM (KnIvY)

Hello?

Posted by: Herm Edwards at October 25, 2010 10:28 AM (A+6fk)

46

Posted by: GOnzo at October 25, 2010 02:16 PM (nTd0a)

Posted by: Velvet Ambition at October 25, 2010 02:19 PM (tuZ6Z)

I guess you've got the right attitude.   Just sit home, not vote, and continue to be ass-raped by the Dems.   Good choice.

Posted by: Steph at October 25, 2010 10:28 AM (ZfkPl)

47 I honestly do not understand how a well-informed voter could vote for a Democrat.  

(Okay, two scenarios: they have voted D all their lives and they'll be damned if they change now, and they truly loathe America.)

People who vote Democrat have to be ill-informed.  IE, they get all their news from TV and the Newspapers. 

The Press must be destroyed.  Not driven out of business or forced to downsize, they must be annihilated.

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at October 25, 2010 10:28 AM (bvfVF)

48 Saving the world and giving us morons a clip from The Professional? Kick ass. We are so unworthy...one of my favorite inspirational movies of all time.

Posted by: cali grump at October 25, 2010 10:30 AM (hL0k8)

49 One more way to think about it.  Say your state doesn't have a senator election this year, guess what, down ballot races for your state legislators and especially Secretaries of State and Atty Gen. will likely help determine if Odumbass is elected in 2012.  If that doesn't get you motivated, enjoy your socialism.

Again, there are plenty of ways to help GOTV even if you are shy.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 25, 2010 10:32 AM (ruu60)

50

The[y] stuck laceyunderalls in the hood

Jaysus I should not multitask.

 

Posted by: laceyunderalls at October 25, 2010 10:32 AM (pLTLS)

51

Nate Silver got scolded by one of his fellow liberals regarding early voting and now he says that we really don't know what early voting means. It could mean a crushing win by repubs or a dem comeback. Bottom line is that repubs are leading by and average of 6 points per state and are crushing dems compared to 2008, but no one knows what that means. Like I said, early voting is a red herring.

http://tinyurl.com/34ahfua

 

Posted by: robtr at October 25, 2010 10:34 AM (hVDig)

52 Fifth-THE APOCALYPSE--The GOP wins, but the DNC tries to steal it, the enraged people rise up in mass, armed with handguns, riffle, chainsaws an roto-routers, to hunt down and destroy every professional Democrat operative, SEIU official, MSM reporter and  member of"The View" in a bloody orgy of liberation and cultural revitalization!


You may say that I'm a dreamer.....but I'm not the only one.....

Posted by: Kasper Hauser at October 25, 2010 10:34 AM (HqpV0)

53

Scenario 1:  Jerry


Sceario 2:  Elaine


Scenario 3: George

Scenario 4: Kramer

Posted by: Alphonse Capone at October 25, 2010 10:34 AM (szikF)

54

In District 12 in Illinois we have Obama Rubberstamp  Jerry Costello finally being opposed by someone: Teri Sacrificial Lamb Newman.

She can't get any traction and is little noticed in this land of  inbred democrat genetic defectives. I and others have been bombarding newspapers letters pages and talking her up but it is like addressing exceptionally stupid tree stumps. "But Jerry has always been our Congressman."

Although Ms Newman will likely be driven into the ground like a tent stake when the votes are "counted" we will have at least fought the Good Fight and drawn some attention to Jerry Costello's God Awful Slimegooberness. 

Whatever...............Moral victories are only other words for losing. 

Posted by: DougS at October 25, 2010 10:35 AM (CGjp2)

55 Scenario 1: The  Down Punch
Scenario 2: The I Don't Placate
Scenario 3: The But First You Will Blow Me
Scenario 4: The Integrity Kick

Posted by: Warden at October 25, 2010 10:36 AM (fE6tn)

56 "I guess you've got the right attitude. Just sit home, not vote, and continue to be ass-raped by the Dems. Good choice." Never said I was going to sit home, but I'm certainly not going to more than vote. If the party wants me to get behind GOTV, its got to deal with my concerns.

Posted by: GOnzo at October 25, 2010 10:38 AM (nTd0a)

57

Here is my 2 cents... for years have followed politics fairly closely.  Actually have a genetic relative who at one time was at about the highest levels, just not for the right party.  So it is kind of in my blood.

So this year I went from passive observer and occasional commentator to active observer, going to forums, writing letters to the editor, writing checks and have been trying to be an active supporter, more with local candidates... but... got to tell you, not really stoked about what I have experianced.  Tried to coordinate doorbelling and sign waving with a local candidate and in each case, it did not work out, not because of me.  Was hoping to be part of a group of local morons, the good kind, to do some sigh waving for my Senate candidate in a tight race, but that was cancelled due to lack of interest.  So spent part of my Saturday at the GOP phone bank making calls, amongst a bunch of desks with phones but nobody else there to make the calls.  And I was told by staffers that the time I was there was the best time to be making them as that is when most people would be home.  90% or more of the calls I made got voicemail or some form of wrong number / fax.  Only spoke with a handfull of the people I was trying to contact but did get a favorable response most of the time.

So on my drive home, the honest truth is I felt like it was kind of a waste.  It felt like there has to be a more effective way to encourage the right people to make sure they vote.  Could just be my local GOP / candidates seems disorganized, don't know.  Could just be my experiance was way to small and just happens to be off days.  Don't know.

Still plan on doing what I can.  Still hoping for the best but not expecting the best.

Posted by: AndrewsDad at October 25, 2010 10:39 AM (C2//T)

58 Whitmans fatal error ( probably) was not wanting to make the election about Brown, a man so unfit for office it's frightening. Instead she ran the worse attack ads ever and let Brown and his union cronies put her on the defensive. Just a bad , untested candidate. So now it's likely we will get Jerry Browns 3rd term as Governor- Good God.

Posted by: jjshaka at October 25, 2010 10:39 AM (9v9tJ)

59 Scenario 1: Pee Wee Herman jacking it in a theater Scenario 2: Bill Clinton dropping his pants: "Kiss it." Scenario 3: Bill Clinton: "You should put some ice on that." Scenario 4: Pat Cadell just tapped you on the shoulder and not with his hand.

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at October 25, 2010 10:40 AM (Rsm4+)

60 For the long time readers:

Scenario 1: Consssss!
Scenario 2: You can't photograph candlelight!
Scenario3: You're right and you don't even know why you're right.
Scenario 4: Obama is a lot like Captain America.

Posted by: Warden at October 25, 2010 10:41 AM (fE6tn)

61

This is how it's won. By turning out the vote. By identifying unlikely voters who are likely to vote Republican, if they just get off their asses and go down to the polling place and are confronted with the choice they've been not bothering to think about.

In Central PA, we've spent the last 3 weeks calling/knocking on doors to establish a list of potential GOP voters. It's not just who votes GOP all the time, but much more precise. I'll be handing in my latest door-to-door list today.

We will identified a key pool of voters and will get them out the door on Election Day.

Posted by: CJ at October 25, 2010 10:44 AM (9KqcB)

62 Scenario 1:  Chris Christie's belly
Scenario 2:  Pat Cadell's hair
Scenario 2:  John Bolton's mustache
Scenario 3:  Dick Cheney's cock

Posted by: Warden at October 25, 2010 10:44 AM (fE6tn)

63 The Wesley Wolf quote is the best one yet. 

Posted by: Mr. Dave at October 25, 2010 10:46 AM (OBDWE)

64 There will be no dawn.

Posted by: Saruman at October 25, 2010 10:47 AM (9cflz)

65

Whitmans fatal error ( probably) was not wanting to make the election about Brown, a man so unfit for office it's frightening.
Instead she ran the worse attack ads ever and let Brown and his union cronies put her on the defensive.
Just a bad , untested candidate.
So now it's likely we will get Jerry Browns 3rd term as Governor- Good God.

 

I couldn't live in CA.  When I graduated college I had many job offers to come the state, but considering the mindset of most Californians, I turned them all down.  Since then, I've seen the state on a course of  purposeful self-destruction.  California deserves Jerry Brown.  I'll go one further.  California deserves Jerry Brown, deserves to go broke, and deserves to become part of Mexico.

Posted by: Soona at October 25, 2010 10:49 AM (UDnDn)

66

This is a quote from Nate Silver:

As always I give the note that any analysis I do of the California Senate race carries an unusual risk of bias because I live here and I have a strong emotional attachment to the outcome.

He's speaking of the California race in that quote, but we do know where he stands nationally, correct?   He is of the left.

Do we truly believe that he doesn't carry that same bias regarding the national outlook?

 

Posted by: Steph at October 25, 2010 10:49 AM (ZfkPl)

67 One piece of good news... if it rains and there's some puddles, the libs will stay home.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 25, 2010 10:50 AM (d1eFL)

68 The Chris Klein Guide to the 2010 Midterms

Scenario 1: Are we friends? Yes. Do we talk? No.
Scenario 2: I don't placate.
Scenario 3: Thanks for the attention, but get out of my face.
Scenario 4: It's a predator-prey situation

Posted by: Warden at October 25, 2010 10:53 AM (fE6tn)

69 Posted by: AndrewsDad at October 25, 2010 02:39 PM (C2//T)

Well, bummer on the experience, but I want to thank you and give you a pat on the back.  You probably helped more than you think.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at October 25, 2010 10:54 AM (ruu60)

70 Scenario 1: Green eggs and ham
Scenario 2: Tofu salad
Scenario 3: Hot wings
Scenario 4: McRib-Valurite smoothie

Posted by: Waterhouse at October 25, 2010 10:55 AM (KF/Jh)

71

 One piece of good news... if it rains and there's some puddles, the libs will stay home.

 

Trust me.  From what I've been reading about the voting scams the dems are trying to pull in many locales, the libs won't even have to get out of bed on election day.  Just sayin'.

Posted by: Soona at October 25, 2010 10:56 AM (UDnDn)

72 Channeling some old-school here for the Dems' point of view . . .

Scenario 1: I'm Too Young to Die
Scenario 2: Hey, Not too Rough
Scenario 3: Hurt Me Plenty
Scenario 4: Ultra-Violence

Personally, I'm rooting for Scenario 5: Nightmare, when dead peoples' ballots cast Democrat mutate in the box and become Republican. Then Col. West comes out with a rocket launcher where his arm used to be.

That being said, vote. Vote vote vote. Kick these sons of bitches to the curb.

Posted by: Tungsten Monk at October 25, 2010 10:57 AM (kwcvz)

73 7 - Donna -- Don't give up. My mom lives in CA, just talked her into voting for Whitman. She hates them both, but I started reminding her about Rose Bird and Brown's opposition to Prop 13 and she turned around.

59 - Andrews Dad -- Even if the messages you left only convinced a couple of people, it did a world of good. Ask Norm Coleman if he wouldn't have wanted a group of volunteers getting an extra vote or two apiece.

Posted by: MaureenTheTemp at October 25, 2010 10:58 AM (8kq7+)

74

Scenario 1: Jim DeMint started duh recession.

Scenario 2: DeMint started duh recession.

Scenario 3: Duh recession wuz started by Jim DeMint.

Scenario 4: Jim DeMint is duh one who started duh recession.

Posted by: Alvin Greene at October 25, 2010 11:02 AM (dUunI)

75 Scenario 1: Icewater
Scenario 2: Warmish water
Scenario 3: J-E-L-L-O
Scenario 4: Open up. We promise we'll only put one in.

Posted by: The Mega Indepedent at October 25, 2010 11:04 AM (d1eFL)

76

I know each little bit helps but on a rainy day, on a Saturday afternoon, with what I keep being told is a fired up conservative movement, would have thought there would be more than just me making calls in what is a fairly evenly split 50-50 part of what is an otherwise very liberal area. 

There is an actual shot of winning people, not like my old address where the hope is the Dems margin of victory is closer than 70-30.

Posted by: AndrewsDad at October 25, 2010 11:04 AM (C2//T)

77 To get rid of the the socialist plague, I would crawl to the polls naked across broken glass and drag three or four GOP voters behind me.  But it doesn't matter.  This is Oregon.

Posted by: Foole In The Rain at October 25, 2010 11:04 AM (pELFl)

78

I still need someone to explain to me why this isn't all for naught?

Because elections matter. Someone needs to run the government. The rest of your scenarios are short-term, blogosphere blah blah.  If we won the election in 2008, you wouldn't be talking about having to repeal Obamacare.

No, winning an election doesn't create a nation of Skittles-pooping unicorns, but it matters. It's the grunt work of the republic.

Posted by: CJ at October 25, 2010 11:04 AM (9KqcB)

79

Trust me.  From what I've been reading about the voting scams the dems are trying to pull in many locales, the libs won't even have to get out of bed on election day.  Just sayin'.

 

One other thing that should be pointed out in case anyone should forget:  The dems have been trying to sow mistrust in the electoral system since the 2000 elections.  If they can destroy the basic tenent on which this nation was built, then authoritarian gov. can complete the takeover.  It's the Cloward-Piven way. 

Posted by: Soona at October 25, 2010 11:05 AM (UDnDn)

80

Well said Ace - GOTV is not the only thing but it is everything! Someone once asked me if I only had $5,000 to spend on a race, how would I use it? My answer was GOTV.

Thank you for being an example by going out and campaigning. I wish more bloggers would lead by example.

Posted by: D. at October 25, 2010 11:12 AM (plSrP)

81 WV is lost.

New PPP poll out...

Manchin 50%
Raese 44%

Posted by: Greg at October 25, 2010 11:40 AM (huyI8)

82 If there was going to be a wave it would have started by now.

Posted by: Greg at October 25, 2010 11:53 AM (DrRWF)

83 If I was going to stop posting this asinine tripe on here, I would have stopped by now.

Posted by: Greg at October 25, 2010 11:54 AM (DrRWF)

84 If anything I wrote on here would have had any effect on anyone, I would noticed by now.

Posted by: Greg at October 25, 2010 11:54 AM (DrRWF)

85 If I had graduated high school, I would have gotten a job by now.

Posted by: Greg at October 25, 2010 11:55 AM (DrRWF)

86 If I was going to be paroled soon, I would have heard from the board by now.

Posted by: Greg at October 25, 2010 11:55 AM (DrRWF)

87 Okay, so apologies for getting on people -- but

Unquestioned apologies should never be followed by "but." It infers that the apology is conditional on the injured party's agreeing to whatever follows,   which makes it only half-meant at best. Instead, follow the apology with a separate sentence, beginning with something innocuous like, "I may have bungled my thoughts, so please give me an opportunity to attempt a clarification."

Thank you.




Posted by: Manners 101 at October 25, 2010 11:56 AM (gbCNS)

88 24:

Most of those women are lesbians.

Just sayin'.

Posted by: RJ at October 25, 2010 12:07 PM (gXVqy)

89

You've made a difference, Ace.  I won't kiss your ass and say reading AofSHQ is what made me finally register to vote.  But it's one of the reasons.

I live in Clinton, MA.  I'm in McGovern's district so I won't have the pleasure of voting against Barney, but I'll get enough from voting against McGovern.  I moved here 6 years ago and I never saw the point in registering.  I moved from Rhode Island and so I'm just used to not giving a shit about voting.  The only thing registering to vote would get me is jury duty.  I've been meaning to register ever since Brown won back in January but I never got around to it.  It was reading this site and others that made me get off my ass and do it.

I can tell you that you are the reason I have a Marty Lamb sign on my lawn.  I read one of your GOTV posts here a couple of weeks ago so I emailed the Lamb campaign and clicked on their "lawn sign" option.  It showed up two days later.  It's the only one in town that I've seen so far, but it's something.

Posted by: Jaynie59 at October 25, 2010 12:25 PM (YjQWV)

90 56: Her campaign website is horrible.

Posted by: RJ at October 25, 2010 12:26 PM (gXVqy)

91 I think I've said this before, but I've got two libertarian friends who haven't voted since 1968 and 1972 respectively, and one conservative friend who's never voted at all.  All three of them are now registered Republicans who will be voting in November.

Posted by: Mary in LA at October 25, 2010 12:31 PM (NGf/6)

92 GOTV is essential, especially in those close races.  Even though this is going to be a good Republican year, in Michigan, we have four Dem-controlled congressional seats that are being targeting, but if we can't get the voters to turn out, these close races will be lost.  My sitting Democratic congressman has about 96% name recognition in a district he won with almost 75% of the vote in 2008.  The best case polls have him in about a dead heat, while the worst case polls have him winning by 13%.  Even in the worst case polls, where he still gets the majority of votes, less then 50% of those polled want him back.  These are the kind of races where GOTV can mean the difference between another loss or picking up an out of reach seat.

Posted by: HenryMalredo at October 25, 2010 12:36 PM (B4/gO)

93 I'm concerned that conservative/Independent passion peaked too soon. Basically, people are lazy and if they hear that someone else is going to do it for them, they'll be happy to sit it out.

My wife and I already voted and we're trying to ensure our conservative and Independent (and a couple of Democrats that are voting for Republicans) are going to go to the polls on 11/2.

But when talking to them, some seem to think that its a 'done deal' that the Dems are going to be clobbered in epic fashion. They don't admit it, but I get the sense that if they have to choose between washing their hair that day and voting, they'll rationalize that others are going to take up the slack, and go wash their hair.

But then again, I'm a worry-wort. But I'm also uncannily right all too often. Combine that with the Dems inevitable fraudulent voter efforts and we may have trouble.

Posted by: Dr. Deano at October 25, 2010 01:59 PM (DRn52)

94

@83

You must be delighted about PA though, Greg. Tracking poll getting Toomey back up to 5.

Hey and IL, Kirk is starting to pull consistently ahead.

You were so "concerned" about these two states before, no doubt you're crying tears of joy now.

Posted by: AussieMarcus at October 25, 2010 03:01 PM (Pelv9)

95 Interesting Hero Note: "Benny" in the clip above was a NYC firefighter who died hen the WTC collapsed.  His real name was Keith Glascoe.

Just thought I'd share.

Posted by: Wyatt Earp at October 25, 2010 05:10 PM (4sYcd)

96 1. Cunni
2. Fellatio
3. Vaginal
4. Anal

Posted by: Robert at October 26, 2010 12:22 AM (4ixH5)

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