1 Uhmmm.....  Sorry?

2 So Ahminmydinnajacket still has a clenched fist? And Bawney Fwank has not been sent in to "negotiate". That is the tactical blunder of the Obama administration.

3 Fiwst!!

4 I suspect Iran is playing it alot smarter than the rest of the nuke desiring terrorist world has in the past. I would bet they plan on building a tiddy little arsenal of Nukes before ever testing or declaring themselves a nuclear power. So if I were President, I'd attack now and worry about the consequences later.

5 Never fear, a feckless UN agency is on the case:

Or not.

UN nuke agency says monitoring of Iran is hampered

VIENNA – The U.N. atomic agency says its monitoring of Iran's nuclear activities is being hampered because Tehran objects to giving some agency inspectors access to its program.

The unusual warning is contained in a restricted report on Iran made available to The Associated Press.

6 Wonder what the street value of 22 kilos of primo U235 goes for?

7 Either by funding and supporting an overthrow or by direct military action. Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 11:18 AM (5I8G0) I don't see overthrow happening.

8 I'm pretty sure Precedent Dog Days is all for a a nuclear Iran.  After all, if no one can be better/tougher/stronger than any other actor over there.  Call it "redistributing the fissile materials".

9

Hey... I got a GREAT idea... lets show how Peaceful WE are by getting rid of most of our own Nukes, not updating ANYTHING, and not building any Missle Defense!

I mean, once WE show our good intentions, I'm sure they will be Peaceful!

10 4 I suspect Iran is playing it alot smarter than the rest of the nuke desiring terrorist world has in the past. I would bet they plan on building a tiddy little arsenal of Nukes before ever testing or declaring themselves a nuclear power. So if I were President, I'd attack now and worry about the consequences later.

I think this is probably the case.  My supposition is that all Iran needs at this point is enough enriched uranium to complete their small but considerable nuke stockpile. 5 or 10 Hiroshama-sized bombs I think. 

The components for the nuke assembly sans the fuel can be made in a half-way decent machine shop in the span of a few months. 

11 Hey... I got a GREAT idea... lets show how Peaceful WE are by getting rid of most of our own Nukes, not updating ANYTHING, and not building any Missle Defense! I mean, once WE show our good intentions, I'm sure they will be Peaceful! Posted by: Lefty Moonbat #42 at September 07, 2010 11:21 AM (H+oXM) Your my sister right. I knew it. Catchy nic

12 If you spread the nukes around, that's good for everybody.

13 The components for the nuke assembly sans the fuel can be made in a half-way decent machine shop in the span of a few months.

Yeah, but the fusing is still a bitch.  The NORKS found that out.
But Iran probably already knows this....

14 Iran won't bother to test. The first test will be an actual use of the weapon some where. No matter where they use it, it's ramifications will be felt everywhere. Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 11:23 AM (5I8G0) Very possible. That could make for a major humiliation but I doubt they care that much.

15 President Imam Obama reacts when Israel is nuked: "Israel acted stupidly."

16 So, anyone have a spare Reset Button written in Farsi? Trust me. Those things really work.

17 "If Iran gets nuclear weapons, obviously thats a game changer" - Candidate Odipstick. Yeah. No kidding - Me. Also, how can China build a rail system for $2 Billion across Iran, when we get about 3 miles for $8 billion?

18 No they don't. That's why diplomacy has never worked with them. Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 11:26 AM (5I8G0) And never will!

19 Kratos - its not quite that easy; but it can be done with little "hittable" infrastructure.

20 I think this is probably the case.  My supposition is that all Iran needs at this point is enough enriched uranium to complete their small but considerable nuke stockpile. 5 or 10 Hiroshama-sized bombs I think. 

The components for the nuke assembly sans the fuel can be made in a half-way decent machine shop in the span of a few months. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 07, 2010 11:21 AM (9hSKh)

 

Bingo, what people don't realize is that they don't need to complete a missle type delivery system.  You could build a Nuke into an airliner, or put it on a Merchant ship, and it would be enough to really damage Israel.

So old style Atomic Weapons, are feasible for the the Atomic International Blackmail environment we are about to witness.

Oh, and for all the rhetoric?  Its won't be Israel who is really under theat the next few years (they have nukes themselves)... these weapons will be used to strong arm the REST of the the Gulf States into compliance with Iranian desires.

21 #16 
Very possible. That could make for a major humiliation but I doubt they care that much.

The Iranians are copying Nork tech, so it's possible that the first bomb the Iranians try (probably through their proxy Hezbollah) could fizzle or only partially undergo fission.  Nonetheless, it would be a signal that the Iranians are ready and willing to use nukes.

Now if we had a strong CinC, we'd make sure the Iranians wouldn't be doing that again, but with Obama at the helm?  I doubt we'd give the Iranians anything more than some sort of "stern" warning.

22 Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 11:23 AM (5I8G0)

Personally, I'm not convinced the Iranians will hand out nukes to terrorists or lob one over to the Jews the day after they put it together (though I'm not willing to take that chance).

Thing is, they don't have to.

Once everyone is convinced they have nukes, either through a test or more likely, a press released (confirmed by intelligence), they will have what they want...membership in the club and immunity for their non-nuclear adventures.

Don't forget, Israel has never tested a nuke. There's speculation they did in '79 with South Africa but no one knows for sure and everyone assumes they had nukes long before that.

It's a very dangerous game we're playing.

23 I doubt we'd give the Iranians anything more than some sort of "stern" warning. Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 07, 2010 11:31 AM We didn't do much else to the Norks?

24 Yeah, I knew the answer.

Other important things, I got a score of 747 in the hypnotic time waster in the top headlines.  Take that, ackmawackjob.

Election Projection has the repubs taking over the house and the senate.

25

In fairness, Iran is actually a case where Obama inherited a bad situation from Bush.

Bush and the lying CIA that said they were nowhere near building a nuke.

26 If the IAEA thinks Iran could build nukes, that tells me they already have done so.

What next? The UN will probably pass "tough new sanctions," maybe as heavy as cutting the flow of spare parts for every Ferrari in Tehran. Osama Obama will deliver a strongly worded speech, reminding Americans that the only way to defeat Iran is for the gubmint to build new roads, airports and rail lines in blue states and keep supporting Obamacare. Oh, and force Israel into accepting an Iranian-supported Pali state....

We are so boned. Dubya was a first-order wimp when it came to anything beyond getting back at Saddam, and the Traitor-in-Chief is an active supporter of regimes bent on destroying us. That one-two punch of presidential incompetence will result in mushroom clouds over the M.E.....

Neither Congress nor the American public has the stomach to take the necessary steps, which are to remove power from both the Mohammedan Mouthpiece and the Muzzie-lovers in his regime, and replace them with Americans (both civilian and military) who understand that we are at a point where direct confrontation with our enemies is inevitable and necessary.

27 Election Projection has the repubs taking over the house and the senate.

Going to be funny to see Barry try to spin out of that "party of no" rhetoric when he's vetoing everything the legislative branch passes.

28 Letting Iran get the bomb fits the Lefty script -- deters any future American "adventurism" and use of scary military power, allows the defiant uncolonized Persians check the Zionist scum, destabilizes the gulf and hurts those evil oil companies (and Dick Cheney) - pushing the West towards a green future in which there isn't enough energy for capitalism or all of those dirty babies that the Right doesn't want the Enlightened to kill.

29 I still think that something will happen by next spring and the US will NOT be in the lead on it. We'll get caught up in the aftermath but the neighboring Gulf states with Israel will tackle the problem head on, one way or another. Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 11:33 AM (5I8G0) Maybe, but I keep thinking that if you want to handcuff how much harm Obama could do to Israel, Israel might want to attack before the Nov Elections. I know that is not going to happen. Just a thought.

30

"Wonder what the street value of 22 kilos of primo U235 goes for?"

Psst.

Hey.

Hey, man.  Wanna party?

I've got something that will blow your mind.

31 Dogbama just needs to bow a little deeper, then everything will work out.

32 Don't think that the Iranians didn't watch carefully to our response to the Chenoan incident either. That has huge ramifications in the Strait of Hormuz. Once they have nukes, they may decide to test our response with one of our ships in the area. Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 11:36 AM (5I8G0) Absofuckinglutely!

33 Neither Congress nor the American public has the stomach to take the necessary steps, which are to remove power from both the Mohammedan Mouthpiece and the Muzzie-lovers in his regime, and replace them with Americans (both civilian and military) who understand that we are at a point where direct confrontation with our enemies is inevitable and necessary.

Posted by: MrScribbler at September 07, 2010 11:33 AM (Ulu3i)

Actualy, the first time Iran lets a Nuke pop in Anger or through terrorism?  All bets will be off. 

America has a history of telling itself to not get involved, to stay calm, to not fight... then you have a Lusitania, or Pearl... and we just plain loose our temper.

Bush and the media kept the lid on the Temper after 9/11 (which I think did us a diservice)... but if Iran pops a Weapon of Mass Destruction???  Stand by, it will get ugly.

34 16:  Even a 'fizzle' can have ugly consequences to the target.

Given the current Badministration...we're screwed.

35
One wonders just exactly when it was that ElBaradei went on Iran's payroll.

36

In fairness, Iran is actually a case where Obama inherited a bad situation from Bush.

The situation basically forced on Bush by the feckleness of the American public and, more importantly, the subterfuge of the Democratic Party. Bush clearly laid out the Axis of Evil (Afganistan, Iraq, Iran, and North Korea). He also clearly stated that these regimes needed to be taken out.

37

"It's a very dangerous game we're playing."

And Barry thinks that owning only ONE of each color property is a winning strategy.

38 My money is still on Jehrico's over the top.

39 i think there was an article on drudge or instapundit about how Mohamed El Bareidi (spelling?) just got 7 million dollars from Iran. You may remember mr El Bareidi as the head of the IAEA

40 Hey, if the Iranians elect to have Nuclear weapons, that's their decision.  I don't meddle in local elections.

41 #42  The situation basically forced on Bush by the feckleness of the American public and, more importantly, the subterfuge of the Democratic Party. Bush clearly laid out the Axis of Evil (Afganistan, Iraq, Iran, and North Korea). He also clearly stated that these regimes needed to be taken out.

That 2007 NIE was written specifically to screw over Bush and tie his hands politically and publicly to prevent him from taking any overt action against Iran.

Sometimes there are enemies within.

42 Guys, c'mon, now...I just answered, like, eight e-mails...

43 14 Iran won't bother to test.  The first test will be an actual use of the weapon some where.  No matter where they use it, it's ramifications will be felt everywhere.

Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 11:23 AM (5I8G0)

My first reaction is to say the first test would be in the middle of Israel, but I have got to believe even Iran isn't that suicidal.

44
That 2007 NIE was written specifically to screw over Bush and tie his hands politically and publicly to prevent him from taking any overt action against Iran.

Absolutely true.

45 46 i think there was an article on drudge or instapundit about how Mohamed El Bareidi (spelling?) just got 7 million dollars from Iran. You may remember mr El Bareidi as the head of the IAEA.

That's of no importance.  It is more important we know who are funding those protesting against the Ground Zero Mosque of Peace.

46 I think IKEA would do a better job preventing proliferation than the IAEA.

47

In fairness, Iran is actually a case where Obama inherited a bad situation from Bush.

The situation basically forced on Bush by the feckleness of the American public and, more importantly, the subterfuge of the Democratic Party. Bush clearly laid out the Axis of Evil (Afganistan, Iraq, Iran, and North Korea). He also clearly stated that these regimes needed to be taken out.

 

I honestly believe Bush planned on bombing Iran in 2007-2008,  and that is why the CIA leaked the 2007 NIE which said Iran gave up their nuclear program. It hamstrung Bush.

But its pretty clear that there is no way this situation ends well. Bombing Iran is almost as bad a letting them get a nuke.  I honestly believe that the BEST CASE scenario for stopping them getting the bomb would have been to fully support and arm the pro democracy protesters after the election. I think the government could have been overthrown.  It was worth a shot, and certainly would have been better than bombing iran outright.

That said, If Iran gets the bomb, both Bush and Obama deserve the blame for that one.

48 I still think that something will happen by next spring and the US will NOT be in the lead on it.  We'll get caught up in the aftermath but the neighboring Gulf states with Israel will tackle the problem head on, one way or another.
Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 11:33 AM

Would love to agree with this, but the sad fact is that people have been predicting an Israeli response to the situation for several years, and there hasn't been one.

Between the Mohammedan Mouthpiece's regime and fence-straddler Netanyahu, the clock has just about run out for Israel. By extension, it has just about run out for us, too.

Our enemies -- Iran, Red China, etc. -- keep making gains while our so-called "leader" keeps making excuses, puffing himself up and taking vacations.

Unless something changes drastically soon, we will all be taking a "vacation" -- from peace.

49

 I think IKEA would do a better job preventing proliferation than the IAEA.

Iran would never be able to build nukes if that were so, IKEA directions are impossible to follow.

50 My first reaction is to say the first test would be in the middle of Israel, but I have got to believe even Iran isn't that suicidal.

You are applying a rational thought process to irrational actors.

If I were Iran it would be EMP pulses across the board.

51

Yeah, but the fusing is still a bitch.

Only if you insist on being stingy with the fissile material. The gun design was considered so fool proof the first test of it was over Hiroshima.

(Or Nagasaki. I can't recall which model went to which city.)

52 Smart diplomacy eh. Well at least we know what they consider smart. Drool....

53 Oops, forgot the Nancy Pelousi sock.

54 Maybe the Iranian's will practice on Iraq. They dislike each other enough. The Iranian's remain the uncontested top dog militarily and stomp the only democracy in the middle east that can't retaliate with a nuclear strike.

55 Wonder what the street value of 22 kilos of primo U235 goes for?

I don't know what "raw" U-235 would go for since there is no "street market" for it but I can tell you that about 20 years ago (the last time I saw numbers for it) a single 5% enriched fuel element cost app $10,000,000. And out of that element there is probably much less than 22 kilos of U-235.

56

"I think IKEA would do a better job preventing proliferation than the IAEA."

Step 439:  Join FUSING ASSEMBLY from Step 228 to WARHEAD from step 402 using supplied CAM BOLTS (H - x6).

57 Only if you insist on being stingy with the fissile material.

I think that is why the NORKS went with an implosion design, and screwed the pooch on the fusing.  Of course all of this is speculation, because we will probably never know what happened with the NORKS "test".

58

 

Barry: If you like your nuclear program with the aim of destroying Israel and the US, you can keep it.

59 Not ready yet, just need about two more ingredients.

60

#58 - spot on. 

If you have the fissile material, the engineering is well known.  The Pakistan design, I'm sure, is well documented in Iran.  A working weapon is on its way, for sure.

The real issue is that once this threshold is crossed, it becomes an assembly line.  Look at the US's own abilities, post-war.  Even if Iran can only generate 4 warheads a year - isn't that enough to keep you up at night?

And, of course, there is U-235's big brother - Pu-239.  Once you have a steady source of neutrons and lots of low-grade U, you can begin playing with breeding 239.  Technically much more challenging to weaponize (if fission is your goal), but this is where the small-warheads come from.

Every college chemistry major knows this.  Every chemical engineer understands the basics.  This is whole-lotta-not-good.

We are fast heading back to detente.  I just hope we get a leader who knows how to play that game.  Nobody likes it, but the alternatives are a LOT worse.

61 57 My first reaction is to say the first test would be in the middle of Israel, but I have got to believe even Iran isn't that suicidal.

You are applying a rational thought process to irrational actors.

If I were Iran it would be EMP pulses across the board.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at September 07, 2010 11:48 AM (9QDNr)

Probably so RJ, I grew up with the Soviets and the MAD doctrine. They at least weren't completely insane the way the Mullah's are over there.

62 Posted by: Ben at September 07, 2010 11:47 AM (wuv1c)

I wonder if Bush would have acted were it not for that feckless NIE. A lot of post admin leaks seem to indicate he wasn't on board with the bombing idea and he did supposedly wave Israel off one planned attack.

Now, leaks can be self-serving version of the truth but I think Bush really had no interest in opening up that can of worms given the state of Iraq in that time frame.

Just one of those things we'll never know for sure.

63
That said, If Iran gets the bomb, both Bush and Obama deserve the blame for that one.

The difference is that Bush had to go through the list of diplomatic responses before he could take action. Then he got slapped with the restraining order in the form of the NIE. Obama could have continued from there, but chose to hit "RESET" and start over with diplomacy. Because he is so ultra-smart.

Between the CIA and Obama, we lost almost 3 years.

The second problem is China & Russia, who have been propping up Iran since we invaded Iraq. Without their support, diplomacy and sanctions might have actually had an effect. Bush made the mistake of trying to cozy up to China & Russia, who made it clear through their formation of SCO that they were only interested in one thing - challenging the unipolar world headed by the US. But at least he scared the crap out of them with his no-nonsense military action.

Obama has, shall we say, not been as intimidating.

64

I almost feel bad for whoever wins in 2012.

America is going bankrupt, our power globally is beginning to recede, and there are many potential flashpoints of conflict.

With all the focus on Iran, people are overlooking two other major problems down the road. The first being that Hosni Mubarak isn't going to live forever, and Egypt, the largest Muslim country in the middle east, is a hotbed for radicalism. The only thing that is keeping them from becoming a fundementalist state that repudiates all treaties with Israel is the secret police and Egyptian army. Mubarak's mismanagement of Egypts economy has opened the door for the Muslim Brotherhood to paint itself as the anti establishment/corruption party. If there are ever fair and open general elections there, i fully expect they will win.

Also, Kim Jong-Il isn't going to live forever. I think there is a meeting this month with the oligarchy that runs North Korea to decide upon who will lead the nation once Jong-Il dies. Rumors are it will be his son, but there is no guarantee the generals will back his son.

Then their is the potential collapse of Pakistan, or another Pakistan Indian war.

Even worse for America is the coming collapse of Mexico. There is no way that place can survive another 5 years with the drug fueled violence going on down there.

I think the world is going to be an even worse place in the next 5 years, and whoever is president in 2012 will have to deal with them.

 

65 ElBaradei was a classic example of what happens when you assign a Muslim to prevent other Muslims from gaining weaponry.  His first allegiance is to Islam, above all, so naturally he stood by and eased the process while lying to the rest of the world, "Oh, no, they're nowhere near having a nuke."

66

I think the world is going to be an even worse place in the next 5 years, and whoever is president in 2012 will have to deal with them.

 

Posted by: Ben at September 07, 2010 11:57 AM (wuv1c)

The precedent is set now, so the next republican President can blame Toonces for everything.

67 As President, I announce that the new CIA headquarters will be in Jerusalem.

68 15 Yeah, but the fusing is still a bitch. The NORKS found that out.
_________________

Fusing is a bitch for a Plutonium bomb, not a Uranium bomb. Uranium bombs are so simple we didn't even test ours before dropping it on Japan.

69 The Iranians are following my example of being transparent.  You'd think you people would be thanking me.

70 Shouldn't it be, Smart Diplomacy™?

71 "My first reaction is to say the first test would be in the middle of Israel, but I have got to believe even Iran isn't that suicidal."

Iranians won't be making the decision.  The nut cases in Iran will.
The problem is that whoever destroys Israel is going to get a right hand seat next to the prophet himself.  For them, that's worth dying for.
What these people won't take into consideration is that the Islamic religion becomes null and void when their black rock gets vaporized.
We live in interesting times.

72 Of course, as soon as the Israeli's see the missile inbound, Iran is gonna get slagged.
Posted by: CDR M at September 07, 2010 12:00 PM

Really?

Do you think Israel won't flinch when confronted with both inbounds from Iran and that 3:00 AM (local time) phone call from the Mohammedan Mouthpiece telling them to stand down and wait?

Before Jan. 20, 2009, Israel could depend on the U.S. Even Dubya, wimpy as he was, wouldn't have put them in the suicidal position they're in now.

Israel is alone in the world now, and Bibi doesn't have the stomach to make the necessary decisions.

73

I honestly believe that the BEST CASE scenario for stopping them getting the bomb would have been to fully support and arm the pro democracy protesters after the election. I think the government could have been overthrown.  It was worth a shot, and certainly would have been better than bombing iran outright.

A gift horse that Obama looked right into the mouth of.

 

74 72 ElBaradei was a classic example of what happens when you assign a Muslim to prevent other Muslims from gaining weaponry.  His first allegiance is to Islam, above all, so naturally he stood by and eased the process while lying to the rest of the world, "Oh, no, they're nowhere near having a nuke."

Posted by: BeckoningChasm at September 07, 2010 11:58 AM (eNxMU)

Wow... just read where he is running for President in Egypt??? And getting "foreign" funding to do so???  Wow.... just.... Fck...

75 Fusing is a bitch for a Plutonium bomb, not a Uranium bomb. Uranium bombs are so simple we didn't even test ours before dropping it on Japan.


Hmmm I always assumed that the NORK failure was due to fusing on an implosion device.  So you can's use Uranium for an implosion device?

76 33 Letting Iran get the bomb fits the Lefty script -- deters any future American "adventurism" and use of scary military power, allows the defiant uncolonized Persians check the Zionist scum, destabilizes the gulf and hurts those evil oil companies (and Dick Cheney) - pushing the West towards a green future in which there isn't enough energy for capitalism or all of those dirty babies that the Right doesn't want the Enlightened to kill.

That was outstanding!

77 I really think missiles armed with nukes is step too far for the Iranians right now. I think they go for a test so they can strut, our reaction has to be violent and swift - every sub and everything that floats has to sink, every airfield closed, every refinery or pumping station burning, Marines take the islands in Straights, etc.

78 Rickshaw - the Nork bomb that failed was a Pu implosion bomb. The NORKS skipped the Uranium bomb step and went straight to Pu. The question on the failure was whether it was an inability to properly fuse the implosion device or whether the fuel was contaminated with Pu240.

79 Pyrocles, thanks - there was a low sodium V8 with haberno sauce fueling that one.

80

I don't think Iran has the capability to launch a nuclear warhead at Israel. They would have a better shot at smuggling it into Tel Aviv.

81 Thanks Have Blue, learn something everyday on this smart military blog.

BTW I know what your nick means.

82 The first Iranian bombs will not be deliverable by missile. Getting one to the target in Israel will be a non-trivial task.

83 Have Blue - can I put my money on both?

84 Listen, if you really want to play the blame game, it goes back to not putting paid to the mullahs when they took over 30 years ago.  Carter...well, we know that story.  Reagan...well, we know that story, too.  And Bush the Elder, and Clinton, and Bush the Younger...

Action at any point in that chain could have prevented this.  Sadly, we've become all too talented at finding excuses not to take action when we should.

85 Rickshaw _ it's a stealth nick for an anonymous commenter.

86

I don't think Iran has the capability to launch a nuclear warhead at Israel. They would have a better shot at smuggling it into Tel Aviv.

Posted by: Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz at September 07, 2010 12:15 PM

All they have to do is get a short-range missile and warhead into Pali territory. Shouldn't be a problem; "peace" groups worldwide and the US gubmint will help.

87 The question on the failure was whether it was an inability to properly fuse the implosion device or whether the fuel was contaminated with Pu240.

Posted by: Have Blue at September 07, 2010 12:13 PM (mV+es)

 

Dam Earth Creatures, I wondered where my PU-240 Space Fuel Modulator went...

88 I thought that said IKEA. Then I thought IKEA having nuclear bombs was really strange. I blame the fact that, for all intents and purposes, it's Monday.

89 89

I don't think Iran has the capability to launch a nuclear warhead at Israel. They would have a better shot at smuggling it into Tel Aviv.

Posted by: Dr. Heinz Doofenshmirtz at September 07, 2010 12:15 PM (4JpPD)

Nope, just build one into a Merchant ship, reflag it as Military, and park it in International waters off the coast of Israel.  Nukes on military vessels are legal... Its a first strike weapon...

90 Actually the news in the NORK weapons program was the fact that they had started a new program to enrich Uranium to make a U235 bomb. They had previously put all of their eggs in the Pu239 basket. If you have an operating reactor (thanks Dems) making Pu is faster but the devil is in the details. It takes a lot of technical proficiency to seperate Pu239 from the fuel and then build a working device.

91 All they have to do is get a short-range missile and warhead into Pali territory. I think the real concern (if they could package for a ballistic weapon) would be a ship to a hezbollah controlled Lebanese port - and then truck to firing prepared firing position under a mosque, school, or UN headquarters.

92 Nukes and Muslims are a bad combination.  The details of how they get their bombs where are trivial. 
Once they get nukes, bad things will happen.

93 The strength of the malevolent Islamic jihadist is that no liberal will believe in him.

94 Who is at immediate risk from a first generation Iranian bomb (assumption being no ballistic packaging): 1) USN in Gulf via small boat, 2) Saudi ports via small boat, aircraft, 3) Bahrain - smuggled weapon, 4) Bahgram AFB via smuggled weapon, 5) Baghdad via smuggled weapon, 6) US Port via container or ship. If I were a sane Iranian, are any of those targets worth the immediate immolation of the Persian culture, would a test serve essentially the same purpose, are there any sane Iranians?

95 If someone runs into progressoverpeace,  tell him that Denish D'Souza has a new book out,  called "The Roots of Obama's Rage."   it's all about how he is an anti-colonial and wants to bring the US down to Third World status.

I cannot help but think D'Souza was reading some discussions here on Ace.

I am glad that this is being said in print,  though.  It makes it easier for some to understand what he is up to.

96

I suspect Iran is playing it alot smarter than the rest of the nuke desiring terrorist world has in the past. I would bet they plan on building a tiddy little arsenal of Nukes before ever testing or declaring themselves a nuclear power. So if I were President, I'd attack now and worry about the consequences later.

That wouldn't be such a good idea.

97 Posted by: Jean at September 07, 2010 12:34 PM (THrql)

It's a blackmail weapon more than anything.

It buys them immunity from conventional attack (thus letting them green light even more terrorism/wars on Israel), the ability to spike the price of oil anytime they want and gives them unchallenged leadership in the Gulf region. Add that to the fact the western nations will then trip all over themselves to cut economic deals and provide aid (all in the name of "containing' Iran and bringing them into the fold).

Nuking the Jews may be satisfying to some of the more intense nutters but the rest will just look at nukes as good for business.

98 The first test will be an actual use of the weapon some where.

A U235 bomb is pretty much failure proof, provided you have enough U235.  I don't believe we even tested one before we dropped Little Boy.

99 "It's a blackmail weapon more than anything."

True.  It also allows them to challenge the US military directly.  They have chemical weapons.  The US doesn't.  In the past, the US would retaliate with nuclear weapons against anybody that used chemical weapons against us.
Once they get nukes, that won't work.

That's the best case analysis. 

But that's wishful thinking, once they get nukes, they're going to use them.
How they use them is anyone's guess.

100 Since the iranian revolution happened in part due to western meddling, the west should do absolutely nothing about iranian nukes!

101 It also makes political sense, because while technically the US, Europe or Russia could block China's sea routes, it would also have a land route.

Wishful thinking here.  A rail line is pretty easy to knock out.  Bomb some bridges, or just insert SF teams to blow the lines in half a hundred places.

102 I don't believe we even tested one before we dropped Little Boy.

Since this keeps coming up repeatedly, no, we did *not* test the gun device prior to deployment.

103 China's rail line is more about influence into the Central Asian states at this point - or it may just be a work project to keep the proles from doing yoga in the morning without permission. It's a long play - I not sure America has a long play in the Middle east, once that oil starts getting expensive to extract - I think we are dust in the wind.

104 Obama is going to be the enabler of a lot of instant glass in the Middle East, if you get my drift.

105 I don't know if it is really fair to talk about who inherited Iran from who...after all, the mad mullahs took over back when Carter was  President and they are just as crazy today as they ever were. So...yeah, maybe Obama inherited Iran from Bush and Bush inherited it from Clinton and Clinton inherited it from Bush and Bush inherited from Reagan and Reagan inherited it from Carter. So let's blame Carter.

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