December 10, 2010
— Ace It is one way to look at it. I'm not sure how much I agree with him yet. He seems to start from the premise that tax cuts need to be "paid for," which is a contentious proposition on the right. But if we're looking at the deficit -- which I assume most are -- of course they have an effect on that.
Krauthammer wonders if the $990 billion in new (Chinese) money pumped into the economy through tax cuts (and... also more spending in various forms) is Barack Obama's re-election plan.
Barack Obama won the great tax-cut showdown of 2010 - and House Democrats don't have a clue that he did. In the deal struck this week, the president negotiated the biggest stimulus in American history, larger than his $814 billion 2009 stimulus package. It will pump a trillion borrowed Chinese dollars into the U.S. economy over the next two years - which just happen to be the two years of the run-up to the next presidential election. This is a defeat?If Obama had asked for a second stimulus directly, he would have been laughed out of town. Stimulus I was so reviled that the Democrats banished the word from their lexicon throughout the 2010 campaign. And yet, despite a very weak post-election hand, Obama got the Republicans to offer to increase spending and cut taxes by $990 billion over two years. Two-thirds of that is above and beyond extension of the Bush tax cuts but includes such urgent national necessities as windmill subsidies.
No mean achievement. After all, these are the same Republicans who spent 2010 running on limited government and reducing debt. And this budget busting occurs less than a week after the president's deficit commission had supposedly signaled a new national consensus of austerity and frugality.
Some Republicans are crowing that Stimulus II is the Republican way - mostly tax cuts - rather than the Democrats' spending orgy of Stimulus I. That's consolation? This just means that Republicans are two years too late. Stimulus II will still blow another near-$1 trillion hole in the budget.
At great cost that will have to be paid after this newest free lunch, the package will add as much as 1 percent to GDP and lower the unemployment rate by about 1.5 percentage points. That could easily be the difference between victory and defeat in 2012.
Obama is no fool. While getting Republicans to boost his own reelection chances, he gets them to make a mockery of their newfound, second-chance, post-Bush, Tea-Party, this-time-we're-serious persona of debt-averse fiscal responsibility.
It's an interesting take, but there are a couple of points to make against it:
First of all, Krauthammer proceeds from the assumption that reducing the deficit is the highest priority among conservatives and Republicans. It isn't and never has been -- the highest priority is keeping taxes low, or as low as possible given the political situation. The deficit is and always will be the number two priority, and sometimes it will be number two by a wide margin. I hope that number two is now very close to the top, just behind number one.
But this has always been the case. It has always been conservative/Republican doctrine that lower taxes yield any number of desirable economic effects, such as increased economic activity which in turn leads to greater revenues which partly offset the costs of the tax relief.
The other part of his argument is a bit odd. He notes that the tax cuts will lead to a 1% gain in GDP and a lowering of the unemployment rate by 1.5% -- and this is a bad thing? Yes, it will help Obama, certainly, but we always knew that. Republicans taking over Congress and forcing him, against his radical will and socialist conscience, to take measures to improve the economy rather than undermining it would perversely wind up helping him politically.
But what was the alternative? Deliberately lose Congress in 2010 again so that Obama and the Democrats could pursue their economy-destroying plans? Sure, we'd be in a better position in 2012 if the economy went into a second dip; but are we really prepared to say "the more misery for the American people, the better for us"?
Krauthammer probably doesn't mean that (ironically, that has the ring of "I want him to fail," a line of Limbaugh's I'm sure he railed against), but that is an implication of his column. The American public voted Republicans into Congress largely to rescue the economy -- and rescuing the economy inevitably helps rescue Barack Obama.
That's a politically unappealing proposition, but there is in the end no way to do right by America without coincidentally aiding Obama too.
And as for the deficit-- Republicans have claimed over and over it would be reduced through reduced spending, not through keeping tax rates high. They have not sold out that principle out yet, although early evidence suggests that may just be a matter of time:
After agreeing to kill earmarks, some of the most conservative GOP lawmakers are already starting to ask themselves: What have we done?Indeed, many Republicans are now worried that the bridges in their districts wonÂ’t be fixed, the tariff relief to the local chemical company isnÂ’t coming and the water systems might not be built without a little direction from Congress.
So some Republicans are discussing exemptions to the earmark ban, allowing transportation, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and water projects. While transportation earmarks are probably the most notorious — think “Bridge to Nowhere” — there is talk about tweaking the very definition of “earmark.”
“It’s like what beauty is,” said Rep. Phil Roe (R-Tenn.). “Everyone knows what a bridge to nowhere is, or an airport that lands no airplanes, or a statue to you — everyone knows that’s bad. It’s easy to say what an earmark isn’t, rather than what an earmark is.”
The issue has popped up most frequently at the Conservative Opportunity Society, the caucus founded by former House Speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) in the early 1980s. During their Wednesday morning meeting last week, caucus members had a long discussion about how the Republican Party could redefine “member-directed spending,” as earmarks are formally called on the Hill.
Conservatives like Roe, Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann and Iowa Rep. Steve King are among those trying to figure out a longer-term, sustainable way to get money back to projects in their districts.
That is the greater problem here. Not that Republicans have done what they promised to do (extend the Bush tax cuts), but they are already working on ways to not do what they also promised to do (cut spending, including, firstly, earmarks).
Thanks to TomM. for the Krauthammer tip and Slublog for the earmarks one.
Pethokoukis Down On Deal: James Pethokoukis is also down on the deal, for giving away too much to Obama, such as the cut in employee payroll taxes, when a cut in employer payroll taxes would have created far more jobs.
It's a matter of priority -- do we want those with jobs to have a little more money, or do we want those without jobs to have them? I think the latter wins in a walk.
Posted by: Ace at
08:39 AM
| Comments (70)
Post contains 1221 words, total size 8 kb.
Posted by: cali grump at December 10, 2010 08:47 AM (hL0k8)
Posted by: ken at December 10, 2010 08:47 AM (jkkzV)
Posted by: cali grump at December 10, 2010 08:48 AM (hL0k8)
Making sense of gibberish by compounding words. Good luck with that.
Posted by: gary gulrud at December 10, 2010 08:48 AM (/g2vP)
I don't think it can be fixed honestly. I'd say we have a total fiscal collapse before anything changes. Well, if the media did it's job and exposed this corruption and waste that might work. But that would involve criticizing the government, and no newspaper or TV channel will do that.
Posted by: Britt at December 10, 2010 08:48 AM (+lDY6)
"Indeed, many Republicans are now worried that the bridges in their districts wonÂ’t be fixed, the tariff relief to the local chemical company isnÂ’t coming and the water systems might not be built without a little direction from Congress."
This is one of those indicators that the Federal government is just too fucking big. Like the reality that one U.S. Senator's vote, from some shithole blue state, has national implications on almost. every. single. issue.
The fact that these guys don't even consider state revenue for the projects mentioned is just a symptom of this disease.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at December 10, 2010 08:49 AM (fLHQe)
Posted by: Dr. Spank at December 10, 2010 08:50 AM (1fB+3)
Which is not to say he's for higher taxes in the same way a Democrat would be, but that he's willing to sacrifice lower taxes in the name of Republican power- which is just as bad as the Democrats spending money we don't have in the name of Democrat power.
I could take apart his argument about tax cuts "costing" anything, but we've done that 100 times before and there's no reason to do so.
As to the second part, about earmarks, the answer is simple: if you want a bridge repaired in your district, include it in the bill during committee. This is not that hard a concept. Second option: to create a separate spending bill: "The I-35E Repair Act of 2011" is not necessarilly something Conservatives would balk over: we just want some transparency and accountability.
"Earmarks" as they are understood (regardless of any legal definition) are unrelated spending provisions which get added to bills to "sweeten them up" to get them passed when otherwise they wouldn't be.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 10, 2010 08:51 AM (8y9MW)
If there's one thing we know about Republicans it is that it's not too difficult to convince them that We Must Do Something, and We Must Do It Now.
Posted by: Soothsayer for RNC Chair at December 10, 2010 08:52 AM (uFokq)
Yes, is allies are already up in arms, but after he signed up for the tax cuts and started defending them he can't back down.
We could get the death tax zero'd out and force them to pay for the unemployment extension. Why? Because otherwise Obama has to argue those are more important then the millions of jobs he is caliming we will lose if the tax increases come through...
Posted by: 18-1 at December 10, 2010 08:53 AM (7BU4a)
Posted by: cali grump at December 10, 2010 08:54 AM (hL0k8)
What's the Tenth Amendment say about either of those options? As a couple of people have already mentioned, why is this federal business?
Posted by: Bomber at December 10, 2010 08:54 AM (qzoN5)
Except that if one thing was proven this week, it's that President BOHICA has no more authority over his caucus.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 10, 2010 08:54 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: George Orwell at December 10, 2010 08:55 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: 12thMonkey at December 10, 2010 08:56 AM (fZzaW)
In a way, I am happy that Nancy got all pissy about this yesterday. Now maybe we can get the tax rates extended without increasing our deficit.
I was all for the cut in FICA. It is a direct stimulus right in the pocket of the taxpayer, but..if there is no spending restraint it just further dooms us.
I think it is ironic that a cut in the Social Security was proposed given that this this program is a ticking time bomb. Revenues are less than outlays even without this cut. Is there a benefit to further hastening the destabilization of Social Security?
Posted by: California Red at December 10, 2010 08:57 AM (smPb6)
I-35E is, specifically, an Interstate Highway. I've already agreed to the Federal Government's authority to handle those (there are too many good reasons for them to do so). I said nothing about the "Texas Highway 360 Improvement Bill of 2011" or any such thing.
Some of them will pass 10th Amendment muster, most won't. The point is that just because "earmarks" are banned doesn't mean that directed spending bills can't be passed.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 10, 2010 08:57 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: JP at December 10, 2010 08:57 AM (ctq0s)
Relevant to this post is PIMCO's forecast for GDP, next year.
They revised it in anticipation of the tax cut deal being passed from 2-2.5% to 3.5%.
Posted by: Soothsayer for RNC Chair at December 10, 2010 08:59 AM (uFokq)
It has always been conservative/Republican doctrine that lower taxes yield any number of desirable economic effects, such as increased economic activity which in turn leads to greater revenues which partly offset the costs of the tax relief.
It's not just doctrine, it also happens to be the truth. Not to bitch, Ace, but you kind of make it sound like we're discussing religion, that beliefs are all well and good but have little effect out in the real world.
Remember that we had so much economic activity that, at one point, the federal government took in a record high amount of taxes in one day during the Bush administration.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at December 10, 2010 08:59 AM (b6qrg)
Two, that I can think of off the top of my head:
1) The faster it goes down, the fewer people (in the long run) will be hurt by its collapse.
2) It may (may) drive home the urgency of fixing it in a way that actually provides for its sustainability (which having the Government in control, by definition, won't do).
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 10, 2010 08:59 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Clyde Shelton at December 10, 2010 08:59 AM (NITzp)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 10, 2010 12:54 PM (8y9MW)
And if the budget deal gets held up by crazy leftists, a less crazy congress gets to decide the issue.
Of course arguably, the incoming Congress could undo the parts of the deal they don't like immediately. But unfortunately the Republicans pretty much never pull that kind of stunt...
Posted by: 18-1 at December 10, 2010 09:00 AM (7BU4a)
Posted by: The National Lobby of Bridge Building Contractors at December 10, 2010 09:01 AM (AZGON)
That would be my optimal solution as well. It doesn't change the fact that there are, indeed, federal spending items that need to happen in specific reps' districts: and they do need a way to direct that funding.
Interstate highways, as mentioned, are one. Spending directed at international airports and ports is another.
I'm sure I could think of a few more if I really tried.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 10, 2010 09:01 AM (8y9MW)
Maintaining current tax rates without cutting spending -- indeed, lumping more spending into the so-called "tax cut" bill -- is folly.
I have no faith the Repubs will do anything to cut spending, and won't until they actually do it.
This is not rocket science. So-called "conservatives" cheer because they're not going to have higher taxes, while Osama Obama, Reid, and the rest of the hey-we-gotta-have-earmarks-cause-it's-for-the-people crowd rack up even higher deficits.
When reality strikes, we will face piratical tax rates (if we're even allowed to keep any income), or bankruptcy.
Posted by: MrScribbler© at December 10, 2010 09:02 AM (Ulu3i)
We don't hold 2/3 in both houses (I haven't done the math, but I don't think we do even just in the House), so anything we tried to "undo" would get vetoed faster than Ace going through a bottle of Valu-right.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 10, 2010 09:03 AM (8y9MW)
No, the bill has additional payroll tax cuts and credits:
Two-thirds of that is above and beyond extension of the Bush tax cuts but includes such urgent national necessities as windmill subsidies.
Posted by: Waterhouse at December 10, 2010 09:03 AM (KClEE)
Not that I totally hate this deal, other than calling these tax cuts instead of not increasing taxes which is what's happening, but what kind of fools think they need to do this before they take the majority in the House?
Posted by: Rocks at December 10, 2010 09:03 AM (Q1lie)
The Republicans are not serious about deficit reduction, not even in the House.
The incoming chair of the Appropriations Committee is a longtime hack and is nicknamed the 'king' of pork.
Posted by: Soothsayer for RNC Chair at December 10, 2010 09:04 AM (uFokq)
Posted by: dougf at December 10, 2010 09:05 AM (rCqtH)
Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at December 10, 2010 09:05 AM (SCcgT)
Posted by: Clyde Shelton at December 10, 2010 09:06 AM (NITzp)
Posted by: Clyde Shelton at December 10, 2010 09:07 AM (NITzp)
If the lame-duck session adopts the continuing resolution, can the House pass a budget bill in Jan/Feb?
Posted by: Waterhouse at December 10, 2010 09:07 AM (KClEE)
Remember, there's only so much that can be done in the remainder of this year.
If you want to argue that this should be put off until the new congress is seated, I could listen to that argument (heck, I'd probably agree with you), but spending cuts can't happen until a budget is passed: and I definitely don't want that to happen until the new Congress is seated.
You're right that this just maintains the status quo on taxes, and doesn't do anything to address over-spending, but I don't think that's a fight we can win yet, and if we can delay that fight until 2011, we have a better chance of winning.
The fact is, though, that the tax rate has almost nothing to do with the deficit: not directly anyway. What we'll get as tax revenues will be approximately 19% of GDP. That's just the way it is. That's why lower taxes are better: the Government is going to see roughly the same amount of money anyway, and tax (rate) cuts allow people to see more of their own money AND tend to increase GDP as well.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 10, 2010 09:08 AM (8y9MW)
They are essentially extensions of the same system that has completely failed to alleviate the problem for the part two years or longer.
Our current problems are a direct result of having progressives in power in Washington. Or didn't you get the part where The Vapid One® and his merry band of Marxist minions tripled our national debt in his first year in office?
Unless and until we rid Washington of this infestation of progressivism, we're never going to see anything that even closely resembles sanity, fiscal or otherwise.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at December 10, 2010 09:10 AM (b6qrg)
Posted by: Clyde Shelton at December 10, 2010 09:10 AM (NITzp)
I've assumed the Interstate system was authorized under Art. 1 Section 8:
"To establish Post Offices and Post Roads;"
I suppose if you wanted to get tricky you could slide it into: "To provide for organizing, arming, and disciplining the Militia..."
And of course the Commerce Clause, though abused mightily, is actually applicable here.
Posted by: goldbricker esq at December 10, 2010 09:15 AM (GkMfH)
"continuing resolution/continuing appropriations - Legislation in the form of a joint resolution enacted by Congress, when the new fiscal year is about to begin or has begun, to provide budget authority for Federal agencies and programs to continue in operation until the regular appropriations acts are enacted. "
I think the answer is yes but I'm sure a lawyer would argue otherwise.
Posted by: Buzzsaw at December 10, 2010 09:16 AM (tf9Ne)
Posted by: George Orwell at December 10, 2010 09:18 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Blue Hen at December 10, 2010 09:18 AM (R2fpr)
I'm all for tax cuts, but we've got to start mixing in some spending cuts to the compromise formula.
Putting aside Chuck's mistaken assumption that renewing the Bush tax rates is a "cost," the fact remains there is over $600 billion in real cost in this deal. That's 3/4 of TARP; and 3/4 of the original Porkulus. At this stage of the game, strapping on that kind of additional spending--without at least $ for $ reductions in spending elsewhere--is insane. And enough with the Emergency excuse for more spending. We've ridden that horse into the ground since early 08.
Oh and...welcome to the Tea Party, Chuckles.
Posted by: Palinbot #2,503,588 at December 10, 2010 09:27 AM (BZEkR)
Clyde Shelton at December 10, 2010 01:06 PM (NITzp)
EXACTLY Clyde. There ARE NO TAX CUTS in play here. There is simply more of the same versus TAX INCREASES. Stop playing their game and start calling it what it is - a vote for or against a tax INCREASE. Use their language and you agree to their lie.
And start asking those around you how it is that the government all of the sudden CAN'T operate on a less than a +$1TRIL deficit. Just like that, it's 'impossible?' Couldn't possibly roll back to 2008 spending levels? Nonsense. These people need to be beaten with ball bats whenever they poke their snake heads out in public - like the lying fucking thieves they are...
Posted by: Abiss at December 10, 2010 09:28 AM (1ilyW)
we are not cutting taxes from 2010 to 2011 so what is Dr. K talking about ?
The phoney baseline budget argument that every statist in the world uses ? god I hope not ...
Posted by: Jeff at December 10, 2010 09:34 AM (A3tpD)
Posted by: M. Bachmann at December 10, 2010 09:39 AM (EL+OC)
Posted by: George Orwell at December 10, 2010 09:41 AM (AZGON)
The occasional GOP personality will try to explain that lower taxes (that is, tax rates) leads to more money in your pocket, but I think we may need to take a new tactic.
1) Educate people that the most revenue the government can expect is around 19% of GDP. This shouldn't be too difficult, if the GOP would do it, since it's the truth and backed up very significantly with data.
2) Having established that tax revenues will only be 19% of GDP, we then need to put forward two ideas:
2a) For the Government to get more revenue, GDP has to go up.
2b) Decreased tax rates cause GDP to go up (which is also supported by data).
I think if the GOP would do this consistantly, and not back down when Democrats call them meanies, we'd really start decisively winning the argument. We could then proceed to step 3:
3) Increased Government spending, especially on things the Government doesn't need to be doing, depresses GDP.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 10, 2010 09:59 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: MaxMBJ at December 10, 2010 10:11 AM (nZ34l)
There are good arguments against this deal (See Demint, Jim), but they are not the ones being made by Krauthammer.
Posted by: thirteen28 at December 10, 2010 10:16 AM (s8N54)
Only a dunce would vote for Obie again after witnessing firsthand what he and his Democrat lackeys have done to the country. Should the economy improve noticeably beginning next year, the difference will be obvious to all but the most willfully blind.
Unfortunately, smart is not a term that accurately describes a fair amount of American voters. If that were the case, there would be no Obama in the White House.
Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at December 10, 2010 10:25 AM (nD3Pg)
Posted by: cali grump at December 10, 2010 10:29 AM (hL0k8)
You're both wrong, although those are both good reasons. The highest priority is to limit the size of government. There are many good things that flow from a limited government, like lower taxes and a much decreased likelihood of needing to borrow money. But the A-number-1 benefit is smaller government means more freedom. As the size of government increases, so does its infringements on our liberty.
Posted by: Anon Y. Mous at December 10, 2010 10:57 AM (DsU01)
Posted by: swamp yankee at December 10, 2010 11:05 AM (3DIBw)
Posted by: Beefy Meatball at December 10, 2010 11:17 AM (YYaIP)
And they've been saying the whole time that not increasing taxes would be good for the economy.
So NOW it's a stimulus package?
They why the hell have they all been for it for the past year????
Posted by: JEA at December 10, 2010 11:22 AM (lP8dE)
"Indeed, many Republicans are now worried that the bridges in their districts wonÂ’t be fixed, the tariff relief to the local chemical company isnÂ’t coming and the water systems might not be built without a little direction from Congress."
So here we are. States can't fix a bridge or flush a toilet without intervention from the legislative branch of the US government. And local industry remains economically viable by relying on their cronies to create arbitrary exceptions to federal law.
This is exactly the problem with earmarks. They're an easy way to work around a host of smothering, ineffective, and corrupt laws and practices. If states were required to fund their own damn bridges and maintain a friendly business environment for their own local industries, then they'd have a much stronger incentive to be economically responsible. Such as by refusing to support policies that send all their money to the federal government in the first place.
Maybe that's exactly what the states should do. Simply defund some federal mandates and redirect the money to cover those local expenses.
Posted by: Galos Gann at December 10, 2010 11:27 AM (T3KlW)
Posted by: LiveFreeOrDie at December 10, 2010 12:04 PM (dkXRJ)
not increasing taxes costs the government ZERO, nothing, nada, the only reason to borrow money from China is because they refuse to stop sending.
we do NOT have a tax revenue problem we have a SPENDING problem!
and this bill is full of it.
modifying the tax rates, up or down, will do NOTHING to solve our current fiscal woes, the only thing that will help is cutting spending.
our leaders seem pathologically unable to do so.
we're all fucked.
Posted by: Shoey at December 10, 2010 12:37 PM (ehKDD)
not increasing taxes costs the government ZERO, nothing, nada, the only reason to borrow money from China is because they refuse to stop sending.
we do NOT have a tax revenue problem we have a SPENDING problem!
and this bill is full of it.
modifying the tax rates, up or down, will do NOTHING to solve our current fiscal woes, the only thing that will help is cutting spending.
our leaders seem pathologically unable to do so.
we're all fucked.
This is something I do not understand. There is not a trillion dollars of spending in this. You could get rid of the unemployment benefits and the ethanol subsidies and we would still have a huge deficit. That is not where the money. The point to this bill was to either let the Bush tax cuts expire or extend them. If you want to cut spending, this particular bill is not going to do that one way or the other.
Posted by: Terrye at December 10, 2010 02:54 PM (FloBD)
Posted by: Terrye at December 10, 2010 02:57 PM (FloBD)
"If you want to cut spending, this particular bill is not going to do that one way or the other."
my question is: why not?
is there ever going to be a bill that cuts spending?
I am becoming convinced that there will never be a spending cuts bill, until the streets run red with blood.
Posted by: shoey at December 10, 2010 03:43 PM (yCH89)
"If you want to cut spending, this particular bill is not going to do that one way or the other."
my question is: why not?
is there ever going to be a bill that cuts spending?
I am becoming convinced that there will never be a spending cuts bill, until the streets run red with blood.
Well for one thing, the President is a Democrat, the House is still run by Nancy Pelosi who still has a majority and Harry Reid is still in charge in the Senate. Even after those new people get there, we will still have a Democratic Senate and President. This bill is about those tax cuts, it is not a budget nor is an entitlement reform bill..and if you read Krauthammer and note his remarks about the tax rate going up for the top earners, you can see that he is not just talking about spending here. He is talking about revenue as well. That is the trillion dollars he is talking about, it has to be.
What I see a lot of people on the right doing is deciding that purity is so important that they would rather see a huge tax increase and another recession rather than allow ethanol subsidies to go through. Well, the majority of the American people support this plan, so far...and I think that it is interesting that the far right and the far left are side by side in opposition to it while a lot of other people are hoping it goes through.
I think CK is doing some tongue and cheek here, like he often does when he wants to make a point. As for the streets running red with blood, all I can say is that sounds downright bizarre.
Posted by: Terrye at December 10, 2010 03:52 PM (bNnwW)
Posted by: bobbymike at December 11, 2010 04:02 AM (WWQLs)
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Posted by: Mr Pink at December 10, 2010 08:44 AM (A1Sei)