October 26, 2010
— Dave in Texas The Hill midterm election poll sets the bar to at least 50 for the House. Six days out, these are done.
“We didn’t even poll in about 15 districts that are already too far gone for Democrats,” said Mark Penn, whose firm, Penn Schoen Berland, conducted the poll. “So that, along with our entire series of polls, points to something in the range of a 50-seat gain for Republicans.”
Including my own former rep, Chet Edwards (TX-17), who frankly should have been bulletproof and invisible this time around. Not anymore. He's got Nancy Pelosi hanging around his neck like a decaying albatross, despite his vote against Obamacare.
This is now the "conservative estimate". I expect the polls to "wise up cause 'it's business' (i.e. 'our credibility')" this week.
Winston Wolf's great uncle Emmitt, a shipbuilder from Groton would caution us not to start scraping each other's barnicles just yet. I'd say it a little differently.
Leave nothing on the table.
Nothing.
Posted by: Dave in Texas at
07:24 PM
| Comments (116)
Post contains 177 words, total size 1 kb.
Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 07:28 PM (/1kyA)
Posted by: Shoppy at October 26, 2010 07:31 PM (edg8q)
Posted by: robviously at October 26, 2010 07:36 PM (GEICE)
Posted by: Dan at October 26, 2010 07:37 PM (1jzSs)
Yep. These guys must be pissing their pants, out of fear and excitement. I think even in an unprecedented and unpredictable year they can't be more then 20% off or they will look bad. At 50 seats that means it can go as high as 60 and they look okay. But the numbers are saying much higher. If they keep pushing it they run the risk of looking stupid if the Dems turn out in force and hold the loses to a minimum. Tough job this year. I wouldn't want it.
Posted by: Rocks at October 26, 2010 07:41 PM (AoVGn)
Posted by: fluffy at October 26, 2010 07:42 PM (SwkdU)
I'm going to go all in and say 95 or higher.
And 13 in the Senate - I think there's one or two sleepers in the mix that no one's expecting.
Hope SanFranNan enjoys her last days of livin' it up on that posh jumbo jet......
Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 07:42 PM (/1kyA)
Posted by: Dan at October 26, 2010 07:43 PM (1jzSs)
For some time I've felt that there was a very good chance of a huge, unprecedented blowout this time. A la 1894, or more.
Most or all of the hard data since the national degradation of '08 has been pretty striking. VA/NJ statewides, MA US Senate special, MO health insurance referendum, CA tax referendum. All blowouts (in context) against the Dems - historic numbers in VA, pretty unusual (high 60s) in CA.
Meanwhile the soft data - polls, Dem behavior - have shown no change. Generic preference and issue surveys have shown unprecedented anti-Dem numbers, growing almost every month. The numbers for the buffoon in the WH have dived consistently.
On top of this, an amazingly good crop of candidates, many of them true citizen-politicians with great personalities and solid backgrounds (incl. many sterling military veterans), has emerged to challenge the often pathetic, ossified satraps in inertially Democratic, unchallenged seats.
A perfect storm - actually, a perfect confluence of various storms - may be playing out in the Dems' Tuesday tennozan.
I tossed off 87/11 to a fellow former Beltway friend last week, more of a joke, but I'd say it's quite feasible. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if O'Donnell wins, along with almost all of the GOP challengers in "toss up" districts. With some "shockers" tossed in to the mix - to include the safest of the "safe" Dem leaders winning with 51% or some other unheard-of slim margin.
Posted by: non-purist at October 26, 2010 07:43 PM (7uwi7)
Posted by: jainphx at October 26, 2010 07:47 PM (ew5pX)
Posted by: Dan at October 26, 2010 07:48 PM (1jzSs)
The fraud is the part that worries me.
Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 26, 2010 07:50 PM (Vz9lf)
Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 26, 2010 07:51 PM (9cflz)
Posted by: stuiec at October 26, 2010 07:52 PM (chhYn)
Uh, 50 seats has been kinda likely for weeks, so why is this breaking news?
Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2010 07:53 PM (gMzAL)
50 seems low, my gut tells me high 60s, then again my gut told me the Vikings and Cowboys would win this past weekend.
We shall see.
Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 26, 2010 07:53 PM (A0VTZ)
Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2010 07:53 PM (gMzAL)
Posted by: torabora at October 26, 2010 07:54 PM (3ueax)
Still, that's not one I'd bet on.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2010 07:54 PM (3wPsb)
Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 26, 2010 07:57 PM (A0VTZ)
Posted by: jainphx at October 26, 2010 08:00 PM (ew5pX)
And no, I am not putting lots of chips on O'Donnell. But a few...
Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2010 08:02 PM (gMzAL)
I'm betting that the Pubbies win by convincing majorities from the get-go all across the nation. A LOT of races are going to be called VERY early on Tuesday night, because the Dems won't be able to manufacture enough votes to get the win.
Given the enthusiasm gap numbers, any Dem incumbent in a district at or below D+10 is probably going to be in for the fight of their political life. And the poll numbers are going to have to show the real story before next week, or the pollsters won't be getting any business next time around.
Of course, none of them have ever seen anything like this before, so I think even they are going to be stunned. It's possible that their models are showing the REAL numbers, but they are so radically different from what pollsters are used to, they can't bring themselves to put those numbers out there.
Oh, to be a fly on the wall wherever Bamster is on Election night......
Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 08:03 PM (/1kyA)
Posted by: alexthechick at October 26, 2010 08:05 PM (bQ5xy)
Posted by: ChicagoJedi at October 26, 2010 08:06 PM (WZFkG)
Any inside information you can share because that would be a stunner.
Posted by: Interesting Decision at October 26, 2010 08:09 PM (hD0CU)
Wishful thinking. I do think there's a cold-feet factor with Coons. He's not likable and the more you get to know him, the more you hate him. Maybe that "I'm you" commercial was better in the long-term than we thought. She's the comfortable choice.
Rossi is closer to the finish line.
Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2010 08:09 PM (3wPsb)
And no, I am not putting lots of chips on O'Donnell. But a few...
Posted by: ParisParamus at October 27, 2010 12:02 AM (gMzAL)
Social validation: because all the cool kids are doing it, it's okay to do it.
Posted by: stuiec at October 26, 2010 08:11 PM (chhYn)
Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2010 08:11 PM (3wPsb)
Posted by: Steve Austin at October 26, 2010 08:11 PM (9cflz)
According to RCP, 10/26/10:
Safe Senate Dem Seats: Inouye (HI), Mikulski (MD), Schumer (NY), Leahy (VT)
Likely Dem Seats: (CT), (DE), Gillibrand (NY), Wyden (OR)
Toss-Ups: Boxer (CA), Bennet (CO), (IL), Reid (NV), (PA), Murray (WA), (WV)
They currently have 48 seats listed as Democrat , 45 as Republican, and 7 as Toss-Up.
Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 08:13 PM (/1kyA)
Of course thousands of Chicago early votes have already been disenfranchised, the military voters have been fucked over, and massive fraud will take place. But that's an armed rebellion for another day...
Posted by: ChicagoJedi at October 27, 2010 12:06 AM (WZFkG)
Well, don't feel too bad. We have reids seiu in control of our voting machines, and teachers giving out food and gift cards to vote for him, and he did beat ensign by 500 votes when they ran against each other. I will be glad when this shit is over! Just my opinion, every nevadan I have talked to either early voted for Angle or plans to on election day, so thats a good thing!
Posted by: lou at October 26, 2010 08:16 PM (CtAJu)
Don't worry, Steve! We'll rebuild you! We'll....euuuuhhh.
Someone get a dust pan.
Posted by: Additional Blond Agent at October 26, 2010 08:17 PM (SHKl9)
Posted by: Dan at October 26, 2010 11:37 PM (1jzSs)
Palin has been the most visible critic of Obama for the last two years. Since Obama is now disliked by much of the country, it has made her stock rise.
Now, if the State Media, with the help of the McCain campaign, hadn't done such a good job sliming her in 08, we'd be talking about her as a shoe-in for 2012 right now.
Posted by: 18-1 at October 26, 2010 08:18 PM (bgcml)
Posted by: AmishDude at October 27, 2010 12:11 AM (3wPsb)
Looking at MA, the Dems have a number of safe seats in districts that voted for Scott Brown over Martha Coakley that haven't really been well polled.
Posted by: 18-1 at October 26, 2010 08:20 PM (bgcml)
Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 26, 2010 08:21 PM (9cflz)
Posted by: The Great and Secret Show at October 26, 2010 08:25 PM (hyDaS)
Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 26, 2010 08:26 PM (9cflz)
Dunno if the comments re DE are in reaction to my off-hand remark, but I was just musing that an O'Donnell win would not surprise me - and would track with other "surprises" - I have no view on her actual chances, based on DE facts or surveys.
AmishDude, I'd up your comment ante about 2 of the 100 "safe" Dem seats being in jeopardy to a half-dozen. If this is as big as it's looking, that would be quite unsuprising.
Again I point to the hard data of actual elections and referenda in the last 18 months - the results in those have been extraordinary to unheard of. I don't follow these things closely enough to know whether the best pre-election polls in these cases were all out-performed by events, but my impression is they were, in some cases dramatically. And pollsters are limited by their need to guess on turnout models - precisely the factor most in question this year. So results way outside the poll predictions should not surprise anyone.
Posted by: non-purist at October 26, 2010 08:26 PM (7uwi7)
Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 08:33 PM (fjcig)
Err. In the paladin 'lay on hands' way, not the Samantha Fox way. The filthy, dirty, sensual Samantha Fox way.
Ehem.
Posted by: Xenophon at October 26, 2010 08:36 PM (DasBz)
I assume Newsbusters will have any moments we need to see. I'm looking forward to clips of The View more than anything else, though.
Posted by: Methos at October 26, 2010 08:37 PM (Ew1k4)
Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2010 08:39 PM (gMzAL)
Um, I didn't want to poo poo ace's GOTV efforts so I didn't say it in those threads. I haven't convinced anyone to vote. I mean I've been talking to lots of folks, I just can't find anyone who isn't already planning to.
Posted by: Methos at October 26, 2010 08:40 PM (Ew1k4)
Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 26, 2010 08:46 PM (9cflz)
Posted by: fluffy optimist at October 26, 2010 08:46 PM (SwkdU)
Posted by: ParisParamus at October 27, 2010 12:33 AM (gMzAL)
Permission? That's an order, soldier.
Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 26, 2010 08:46 PM (5I0Yr)
Posted by: Errol at October 26, 2010 08:49 PM (7f/h+)
http:// www.breitbart.tv/local-anchor-attacks-okeefe- on-air-in-incredible-hostile-interview/
Gonna try and post this, put spaces in. This is a major meltdown by this anchor.
Posted by: lou at October 26, 2010 08:57 PM (CtAJu)
Posted by: lou at October 26, 2010 08:58 PM (CtAJu)
Too late to update predictions for our contest here-
but I have 62 as of today in the House. Tran looks to beat the Flamenco dancer Sanchez in CA
Posted by: Gerry Owen at October 26, 2010 08:59 PM (4ABat)
Posted by: Peaches at October 26, 2010 08:59 PM (zxpIo)
I get wood everytime I read election coverage. As it gets closer they have to be more and more honest. I called 70 seats, but I'm almost wishing I had kept with my prediction of 100 seats after the Cap and Tax vote.
Hell I work nights and am contemplating calling in sick to watch MSNBC
Posted by: Zakn at October 26, 2010 09:04 PM (2TqDD)
Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 09:05 PM (fjcig)
Posted by: fluffy, not paid to post comments at October 26, 2010 09:17 PM (SwkdU)
Posted by: Greg at October 26, 2010 09:17 PM (h/zKr)
Posted by: fluffy at October 26, 2010 09:27 PM (SwkdU)
Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 09:36 PM (fjcig)
http://tinyurl.com/2ajufj6
If the D's lose that many just in Virginia, I think the D's will lose close to a 100.
Posted by: MrCaniac at October 26, 2010 09:40 PM (oREHE)
Erhlich has run out of money to run spots; O'Malley has turned him into the incumbent. Even Andy Harris is getting pummeled by neg ads in the last weeks. That single seat pickup is all I can dare to hope for anymore.
Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2010 09:43 PM (bAySe)
Posted by: Rocks at October 26, 2010 09:45 PM (AoVGn)
Fire your doctorr. Tell him why. But get his wife's curried rice recipe first.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 26, 2010 09:46 PM (h/zKr)
Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2010 09:46 PM (bAySe)
Posted by: Romeo13 at October 26, 2010 09:46 PM (AdK6a)
Serious Cat,
LOL
<---from right outside of Baltimore.
I now live in California.
Sad- WE have more competitive races than Maryland does.
Posted by: CAC at October 26, 2010 09:51 PM (lV4Fs)
Posted by: Romeo13 at October 27, 2010 01:46 AM (AdK6a)
I just watched the view clip about sharon angle, brain bleach please! these assholes are desperate. Even the so-called conservative is completely unhinghed and in the bank for the dems. They are grasping at slipping straws!!
Posted by: lou at October 26, 2010 09:55 PM (CtAJu)
Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 09:55 PM (fjcig)
btw Survey USA seriously oversampled young voters and minorities for the california poll ...and still only showed Boxer up 5- at 45%.
So weve had 1 crappy poll, 3 outright frauds with their voter breakdowns- LA/USC, Suffolk, and PPP.
MAGICALLY Boxer jumps from 1.5 to 6 pts for a lead, but its a ruse.
Damn I will be laughing my ass off if indeed these numbers are way off as they look.
Posted by: CAC at October 26, 2010 10:09 PM (lV4Fs)
Posted by: Hous Bin Pharteen at October 26, 2010 10:12 PM (nRF6+)
Posted by: Drew in MO at October 26, 2010 10:13 PM (R8S84)
According to RCP, 10/26/10:
Safe Senate Dem Seats: Inouye (HI), Mikulski (MD), Schumer (NY), Leahy (VT)
Likely Dem Seats: (CT), (DE), Gillibrand (NY), Wyden (OR)
Toss-Ups: Boxer (CA), Bennet (CO), (IL), Reid (NV), (PA), Murray (WA), (WV)
They currently have 48 seats listed as Democrat , 45 as Republican, and 7 as Toss-Up.
Posted by: Teresa
-----
Looking back in hindsight, after the Delaware, uhhh, situation, the GOP might have been wise to take a crack at boosting Huffman over Wyden in Oregon... who knows, maybe it would have had spill over effects in WA and CA.
The thing that bugs me about possibly not taking the Senate is that it probably rules out the possibility of forcing Obama to veto repeal & replace of Obamacare. Hanging that decision on his neck in 2012 would have been very helpful.
Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2010 10:17 PM (bAySe)
I had the pleasure of meeting him only once, about a month or 6 weeks ago at the SW OH moron meet-up. He was obviously very ill, but just as obviously was staring it in the face and taking it as what it was. A true gentleman in every sense of the word. That he got his absentee ballot in before the end is like sweet, sweet victory the taste of Dem tears. Not surprising at all.
Godspeed, Ron. May his memory be eternal!
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 26, 2010 10:20 PM (h/zKr)
I am still trying to figure out all the screw-ups with health care bull shit. My health care was fine before they started to destroy it. You have to realize how important it is, even i you are as healthy as an ox.
I was very healthy and in shape. That all changed one morning when I was T-boned by a 20 year old with a long police record. I have been dealing with recovering from it for 3 years. The last thing I needed was Obumbercare. We had an accident two weeks ago at the same spot with 3 teens in bad shape and one that did not make it. (no seat belt) I wonder how their health care is screwed up now?
Posted by: Hous Bin Pharteen at October 26, 2010 10:31 PM (nRF6+)
Do these frickin suck puppets really think we are gonna buy their bullshit stuff?
Get me grid coordinates and I will call in the AC-130's to hose them. And not with a water hose.
Posted by: Hous Bin Pharteen at October 26, 2010 10:50 PM (nRF6+)
Posted by: Hous Bin Pharteen at October 26, 2010 10:51 PM (nRF6+)
The fraud is the part that worries me.
This.
I'm the complete opposite of a conspiracy theorist- I've gone rounds with more than a few folks around here. I still think fraud will be at an all time high this election- who's going to prosecute? Holder? Dem Secretaries of State who got elected on Soro's dime? Why wouldn't the union / leftist types cheat?
I'm predicting 49.5 R / 50.5 D in the Senate. If the .5 sounds like I'm hedging my bets, it's because it is- I'm torn between 49/51 and 50/50.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 26, 2010 11:09 PM (VVDUu)
The HillÂ’s data confirm other public polling and expert predictions,
some of which put the historic wave even higher than the 52 seats
Democrats lost in 1994 and the 71 they lost in 1938.
Yesssssss.... my Preciousssssss.....
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at October 26, 2010 11:15 PM (2MGtW)
Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 11:15 PM (fjcig)
Posted by: Mary in LA at October 26, 2010 11:29 PM (x9+RF)
I'm also thinking we'll gain 8-9 seats in the Senate now. CT is no longer GOP territory, alas.
Posted by: Banji Kazooie at October 27, 2010 12:14 AM (OaKsb)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2010 12:29 AM (9Cooa)
This is the reason that I think it would be better for the Republicans to have 48-49 seats in the Senate. They can push through a lot of reform, and pull off worried Dems looking to polish their "independent" creds before the 2012 elections. With 51 senators, we are probably looking at a unified Democratic front, with the narrative for the election being that "the evil Republicans prevented us from doing all this good that we wanted to do!"
Posted by: Alex at October 27, 2010 12:41 AM (aAsSp)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2010 01:05 AM (9Cooa)
Posted by: csr at October 27, 2010 02:34 AM (DLG6R)
That pretty much tells you where she stands, she is an EXTREME libtard.
Posted by: Vic at October 27, 2010 02:58 AM (/jbAw)
P.S., Have you seen how LONG these polls are with their 35 questions? Who the hell has 30 minutes at dinner time to answer a damned poll? Instead of just Republicans, Democrats and Independents, they need to add a category for "Complete Losers With Nothing Better To Do Than Answer A Poll At Dinnertime".
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 27, 2010 03:28 AM (Baf0e)
With that uncertainty gone and 2 years of complete gridlock to look forward to, businesses will start to hire like mad. You can already see this in the 1000 point runup of the stock market in anticipation.
P.S., And oh yeah, definitely looking forward to these leftists getting their butts investigated for the shenanigans they've been pulling.
Question: On a scale of 1 - 10, how PISSED is Obama right now?
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 27, 2010 03:32 AM (Baf0e)
Posted by: Troll Feeder at October 27, 2010 03:37 AM (ys50O)
The informed, motivated Dem electorate has already voted early. The typical lazy Dem voter waits till election day.
God sent tornadoes to defeat the Bristish in 1814 (War of 1812) and he is sending rain in 2010.
Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 27, 2010 03:37 AM (Baf0e)
Posted by: Gregory of Yardale at October 27, 2010 04:15 AM (YPivX)
Posted by: ParisParamus at October 27, 2010 04:24 AM (gMzAL)
What do we do about it?
If voting fails, what's left?
Because all our talk about a shootin' revolution is due to turn into a case of put up or shut up on November 3.
Posted by: Trimegistus at October 27, 2010 05:07 AM (Z+rhq)
If I'm wrong, then America truly has become Euro and I'll start looking for acreage in Wyoming for my future compound.
Posted by: Bruceinsocal at October 27, 2010 05:11 AM (J6hTO)
Posted by: Warthog at October 27, 2010 05:13 AM (WDySP)
Posted by: Billy Batts at October 27, 2010 05:14 AM (K/USr)
Posted by: Billy Batts at October 27, 2010 05:17 AM (K/USr)
I am still VERY concerned about the cheating. SEIU is servicing a lot of the voting machines. Now what could possibly go wrong with that... Hmmmm??
Up here in the Peoples Republic of Minnesota they've got all sorts of court cases against illegal votes by felons, etc. from the last election (anyone remember Diaper Boy and the magic 800 votes?). This time around there's a number of could-be close races. My district has Betty McCommie against a newcomer. I'm not sanguine about the number of magic votes that'll show up in the absentees, etc.
Posted by: chuck in st paul at October 27, 2010 05:17 AM (adr25)
In any event, I think most of us still retain some belief it won't come to that. Or barring that, we have faith the issue may be resolved short of the worst.
And if that fails...well, this may be an interesting November.
Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at October 27, 2010 05:22 AM (GBXon)
Posted by: Dunkirk at October 27, 2010 05:33 AM (kbHJ6)
Posted by: Zakn at October 27, 2010 06:04 AM (zyaZ1)
Posted by: Billy Batts at October 27, 2010 09:17 AM (K/USr)
Gretchen, she said she disagreed with every position Angle had. Not just most, but every position.
Posted by: Vic at October 27, 2010 06:04 AM (/jbAw)
There will be rampant voter fraud. Democrats will win enough seats to retain s healthy majority. People will be angry, very angry.
Let's pray I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong.
Posted by: shibumi at October 27, 2010 06:38 AM (OKZrE)
There will be rampant voter fraud. Democrats will win enough seats to retain s healthy majority. People will be angry, very angry.
Let's pray I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong.
Posted by: shibumi at October 27, 2010 10:38 AM (OKZrE)
There is rampant fraud every election by Democrats and has been since 1830. Conditions are far less favorable for them this time - you can only trim so much, and with discouraged Dems you can do even less.
Like always, they will steal a few close ones. But most of the races won't be close at all, so no scope for the tricks.
No need for the tinfoil hat.
Posted by: Oldcat at October 27, 2010 06:52 AM (CN+Qv)
Posted by: Greg at October 27, 2010 06:54 AM (huyI8)
Posted by: Dunkirk at October 27, 2010 09:33 AM (kbHJ6)
I would love for the Demis to console themselves that historic losses aren't so bad. Not learning from failure is the best way to fail again next election.
Posted by: Oldcat at October 27, 2010 06:55 AM (CN+Qv)
Word has it he's all wee wee'd up.
Posted by: Foole In The Rain at October 27, 2010 06:58 AM (pELFl)
Posted by: Trimegistus at October 27, 2010 10:42 AM (LzyJ+)
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Posted by: Minuteman at October 26, 2010 07:26 PM (264X9)