October 26, 2010

Mid Term Blowout: 50 or More
— Dave in Texas

The Hill midterm election poll sets the bar to at least 50 for the House. Six days out, these are done.

“We didn’t even poll in about 15 districts that are already too far gone for Democrats,” said Mark Penn, whose firm, Penn Schoen Berland, conducted the poll. “So that, along with our entire series of polls, points to something in the range of a 50-seat gain for Republicans.”

Including my own former rep, Chet Edwards (TX-17), who frankly should have been bulletproof and invisible this time around. Not anymore. He's got Nancy Pelosi hanging around his neck like a decaying albatross, despite his vote against Obamacare.

This is now the "conservative estimate". I expect the polls to "wise up cause 'it's business' (i.e. 'our credibility')" this week.

Winston Wolf's great uncle Emmitt, a shipbuilder from Groton would caution us not to start scraping each other's barnicles just yet. I'd say it a little differently.

Leave nothing on the table.

Nothing.


via Geraghty on Twitter

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 07:24 PM | Comments (116)
Post contains 177 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Iskandar!!!

Posted by: Minuteman at October 26, 2010 07:26 PM (264X9)

2 It's gonna be higher - much, much higher......

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 07:28 PM (/1kyA)

3 Re: TX-17 Buh-bye.

Posted by: BigDaddy1964 at October 26, 2010 07:30 PM (UvBAP)

4 The Dem's are toast. The only question now is.....the setting on the toaster.

Posted by: Shoppy at October 26, 2010 07:31 PM (edg8q)

5 Election Day can't get here fast enough.  The libs finally got their wish of "ZOMG!!1!!!! TEA PARTY VIOLENCE!!!1!1!" with that overblown non-head stomp video.  I don't want them to have any more time to whip up false controversies or rig voting machines.  Let's just vote and be done with this thing.

Posted by: robviously at October 26, 2010 07:36 PM (GEICE)

6 OT...A show I really enjoy "Sons Of Anarchy" just had something curious happen. One of the lesser characters, a porn star is going to have an abortion and hide this fact from her biker boyfriend who would not approve. She is sitting in the waiting room and then the nurse calls the name "uh Sarah Palin." The porn star says "I guess thats me" and goes in. Now this is quite interesting to me. The character used a fake name (since she wants to keep it a secret from her boyfriend) and picked "Sarah Palin." Now I could say this is a shot at Sarah for being put in the same arena as a porn star among other things, but maybe it was just them using a name that would be kinda funny in the situation. Regardless, it shows just how much she has penetrated the American culture. Her name pops up on shows all the time (even fiction ones) when she has nothing at all to do with anything. They just cannot help bringing her name up. Pretty interesting.

Posted by: Dan at October 26, 2010 07:37 PM (1jzSs)

7 This is now the "conservative estimate". I expect the polls to "wise up cause 'it's business' (i.e. 'our credibility')" this week.

Yep. These guys must be pissing their pants, out of fear and excitement. I think even in an unprecedented and unpredictable year they can't be more then 20% off or they will look bad. At 50 seats that means it can go as high as 60 and they look okay. But the numbers are saying much higher. If they keep pushing it they run the risk of looking stupid if the Dems turn out in force and hold the loses to a minimum. Tough job this year. I wouldn't want it.

Posted by: Rocks at October 26, 2010 07:41 PM (AoVGn)

8 I'm anxious to see how the wave breaks here in New England.

Posted by: fluffy at October 26, 2010 07:42 PM (SwkdU)

9

I'm going to go all in and say 95 or higher.

And 13 in the Senate - I think there's one or two sleepers in the mix that no one's expecting.

Hope SanFranNan enjoys her last days of livin' it up on that posh jumbo jet......

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 07:42 PM (/1kyA)

10 At least a sizable conservative majority in the house can stop Obama's most radical plans. Supreme court nominee is still a problem even if we have 50 or 51 senators though, but one problem at a time. Win now, then win in 2012.

Posted by: Dan at October 26, 2010 07:43 PM (1jzSs)

11

For some time I've felt that there was a very good chance of a huge, unprecedented blowout this time.  A la 1894, or more. 

Most or all of the hard data since the national degradation of '08 has been pretty striking.  VA/NJ statewides, MA US Senate special, MO health insurance referendum, CA tax referendum.  All blowouts (in context) against the Dems - historic numbers in VA, pretty unusual (high 60s) in CA.

Meanwhile the soft data - polls, Dem behavior - have shown no change.  Generic preference and issue surveys have shown unprecedented anti-Dem numbers, growing almost every month.  The numbers for the buffoon in the WH have dived consistently. 

On top of this, an amazingly good crop of candidates, many of them true citizen-politicians with great personalities and solid backgrounds (incl. many sterling military veterans), has emerged to challenge the often pathetic, ossified satraps in inertially Democratic, unchallenged seats.

A perfect storm - actually, a perfect confluence of various storms - may be playing out in the Dems' Tuesday tennozan.

I tossed off 87/11 to a fellow former Beltway friend last week, more of a joke, but I'd say it's quite feasible.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if O'Donnell wins, along with almost all of the GOP challengers in "toss up" districts. With some "shockers" tossed in to the mix - to include the safest of the "safe" Dem leaders winning with 51% or some other unheard-of slim margin.

 

 

Posted by: non-purist at October 26, 2010 07:43 PM (7uwi7)

12  I'm thinking the count will be very surprising to the whole world, and I think that because the Dems are cheating almost openly, so they know what is coming. We just need to show up and VOTE, this is no time to be listening for foot steps, just let them smell our heels!

Posted by: jainphx at October 26, 2010 07:47 PM (ew5pX)

13 I remember in the primary the most generous poll and it might have been an internal one showed O'Donnell 5-7 pts behind castle and then she won by around 4 I think. So that was a 10 pt over performance. Now the general is different than the primary I grant you, but enthusiasm and turnout can make up 10 pts. Might not be likely, but certainly possible.

Posted by: Dan at October 26, 2010 07:48 PM (1jzSs)

14 and I think that because the Dems are cheating almost openly, so they know what is coming.

The fraud is the part that worries me.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at October 26, 2010 07:50 PM (Vz9lf)

15 I think they may all lose all house seats in VA.

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 26, 2010 07:51 PM (9cflz)

16 Steady, lads -- we've not heard from Greg yet.  He'll put these numbers in the proper perspective for us.

Posted by: stuiec at October 26, 2010 07:52 PM (chhYn)

17 Moron meetup at telelvision, Wifi-location in NYC, please.

Uh, 50 seats has been kinda likely for weeks, so why is this breaking news?


Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2010 07:53 PM (gMzAL)

18

50 seems low, my gut tells me high 60s, then again my gut told me the Vikings and Cowboys would win this past weekend.

We shall see.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 26, 2010 07:53 PM (A0VTZ)

19 Truth or Psy-Ops:  O'Donnell closing fast in DE--make it so!

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2010 07:53 PM (gMzAL)

20 Meanwhile out here in the land of the boned...Kahleeforneeeha...birthplace of Jonestown....we'll drink the Brown Kool-Aid.

Posted by: torabora at October 26, 2010 07:54 PM (3ueax)

21 Vis a vis O'Donnell, I'd be betting on the small state theory.  That is that polling is tough because a lot of residents go back and forth from the state and it's hard to isolate who is there, especially in the north.  Also, statistical noise and the enthusiasm factor.

Still, that's not one I'd bet on.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2010 07:54 PM (3wPsb)

22 Oh, and it warms my heart that so called moderate, used car salesman Edwards is going down in flames.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 26, 2010 07:57 PM (A0VTZ)

23  The higher the turnout the less likely they can cheat in the numbers required. If we turn out we win, stay home and they steal, it's that simple.

Posted by: jainphx at October 26, 2010 08:00 PM (ew5pX)

24 I guess part of "wave" theory is that people on the fence not only decide to vote (at all) when they hear that others will be, but that it's now "safe" not to vote for the Democrats.  Oy vey, but I'll take it.

And no, I am not putting lots of chips on O'Donnell.  But a few...

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2010 08:02 PM (gMzAL)

25

I'm betting that the Pubbies win by convincing majorities from the get-go all across the nation.  A LOT of races are going to be called VERY early on Tuesday night, because the Dems won't be able to manufacture enough votes to get the win. 

Given the enthusiasm gap numbers, any Dem incumbent in a district at or below D+10  is probably going to be in for the fight of their political life.  And the poll numbers are going to have to show the real story before next week, or the pollsters won't be getting any business next time around.

Of course, none of them have ever seen anything like this before, so I think even they are going to be stunned.  It's possible that their models are showing the REAL numbers, but they are so radically different from what pollsters are used to, they can't bring themselves to put those numbers out there.

Oh, to be a fly on the wall wherever Bamster is on Election night......

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 08:03 PM (/1kyA)

26 I just want to see Keefums cry on air.  I don't ask much of life.

Posted by: alexthechick at October 26, 2010 08:05 PM (bQ5xy)

27 Power was out all day so I wandered around the neighborhood. I'd say 1 out of 10 houses had GOP candidate signs outside. Not one for any Dem. Considering this is a lefty burb of Chicago not too bad. I even spotted a few signs in yards that had Obama signs a few years ago. All signs point to wave. Of course thousands of Chicago early votes have already been disenfranchised, the military voters have been fucked over, and massive fraud will take place. But that's an armed rebellion for another day...

Posted by: ChicagoJedi at October 26, 2010 08:06 PM (WZFkG)

28 But I will call one upset special. Illinois 2. Jesse Jackson Jr. gets surprised by the Rev. Issac Hayes.

Any inside information you can share because that would be a stunner.

Posted by: Interesting Decision at October 26, 2010 08:09 PM (hD0CU)

29 Truth or Psy-Ops:  O'Donnell closing fast in DE--make it so!

Wishful thinking.  I do think there's a cold-feet factor with Coons.  He's not likable and the more you get to know him, the more you hate him.  Maybe that "I'm you" commercial was better in the long-term than we thought.  She's the comfortable choice.

Rossi is closer to the finish line.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2010 08:09 PM (3wPsb)

30 I guess part of "wave" theory is that people on the fence not only decide to vote (at all) when they hear that others will be, but that it's now "safe" not to vote for the Democrats.  Oy vey, but I'll take it.

And no, I am not putting lots of chips on O'Donnell.  But a few...

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 27, 2010 12:02 AM (gMzAL)

Social validation: because all the cool kids are doing it, it's okay to do it.

Posted by: stuiec at October 26, 2010 08:11 PM (chhYn)

31 I'm betting that at least 2 of the 100 safest of safe dem seats will flip in a shocker.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 26, 2010 08:11 PM (3wPsb)

32 I've got a blowout, vapor three.Pitch is out ,I can't hold altitude.Flight Comm! I can't hold it! She's breaking up, she's break...

Posted by: Steve Austin at October 26, 2010 08:11 PM (9cflz)

33

According to RCP, 10/26/10:

Safe Senate Dem Seats: Inouye (HI), Mikulski (MD), Schumer (NY), Leahy (VT)

Likely Dem Seats: (CT), (DE), Gillibrand (NY), Wyden (OR) 

Toss-Ups: Boxer (CA), Bennet (CO), (IL), Reid (NV), (PA), Murray (WA), (WV)

They currently have 48 seats listed as Democrat , 45 as Republican, and 7 as Toss-Up.

 

Posted by: Teresa in Fort Worth, TX at October 26, 2010 08:13 PM (/1kyA)

34 28 Power was out all day so I wandered around the neighborhood. I'd say 1 out of 10 houses had GOP candidate signs outside. Not one for any Dem. Considering this is a lefty burb of Chicago not too bad. I even spotted a few signs in yards that had Obama signs a few years ago. All signs point to wave.

Of course thousands of Chicago early votes have already been disenfranchised, the military voters have been fucked over, and massive fraud will take place. But that's an armed rebellion for another day...

Posted by: ChicagoJedi at October 27, 2010 12:06 AM (WZFkG)

 

Well, don't feel too bad. We have reids seiu in control of our voting machines, and  teachers giving out food and gift cards to vote for him, and he did beat ensign by 500 votes when they ran against each other. I will be glad when this shit is over! Just my opinion, every nevadan I have talked to either early voted for Angle or plans to on election day, so thats a good thing!

Posted by: lou at October 26, 2010 08:16 PM (CtAJu)

35 I've got a blowout, vapor three.Pitch is out ,I can't hold altitude.Flight Comm! I can't hold it! She's breaking up, she's break...

Don't worry, Steve!  We'll rebuild you!  We'll....euuuuhhh.

Someone get a dust pan.

Posted by: Additional Blond Agent at October 26, 2010 08:17 PM (SHKl9)

36 Regardless, it shows just how much she has penetrated the American culture. Her name pops up on shows all the time (even fiction ones) when she has nothing at all to do with anything. They just cannot help bringing her name up. Pretty interesting.

Posted by: Dan at October 26, 2010 11:37 PM (1jzSs)

Palin has been the most visible critic of Obama for the last two years. Since Obama is now disliked by much of the country, it has made her stock rise.

Now, if the State Media, with the help of the McCain campaign, hadn't done such a good job sliming her in 08, we'd be talking about her as a shoe-in for 2012 right now.

Posted by: 18-1 at October 26, 2010 08:18 PM (bgcml)

37 I'm betting that at least 2 of the 100 safest of safe dem seats will flip in a shocker.

Posted by: AmishDude at October 27, 2010 12:11 AM (3wPsb)

Looking at MA, the Dems have a number of safe seats in districts that voted for Scott Brown over Martha Coakley that haven't really been well polled.

Posted by: 18-1 at October 26, 2010 08:20 PM (bgcml)

38 The new VA Governor carried Fairfax.

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 26, 2010 08:21 PM (9cflz)

39 The storm is brewing in the Midwest(literally, as well...Al Gore must be speaking there) and it will leave a path of 'D'struction in it's wake. But the biggest shock will be 35 Governors Mansions, an ideal breeding ground for freedom loving leaders. You could warn them...if only you spoke Hovitos.

Posted by: The Great and Secret Show at October 26, 2010 08:25 PM (hyDaS)

40 I think they are calling for about a foot of snow in the Dakotas.

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 26, 2010 08:26 PM (9cflz)

41

Dunno if the comments re DE are in reaction to my off-hand remark, but I was just musing that an O'Donnell win would not surprise me - and would track with other "surprises" -  I have no view on her actual chances, based on DE facts or surveys.

AmishDude, I'd up your comment ante about 2 of the 100 "safe" Dem seats being in jeopardy to a half-dozen. If this is as big as it's looking, that would be quite unsuprising.

Again I point to the hard data of actual elections and referenda in the last 18 months - the results in those have been extraordinary to unheard of.  I don't follow these things closely enough to know whether the best pre-election polls in these cases were all out-performed by events, but my impression is they were, in some cases dramatically.  And pollsters are limited by their need to guess on turnout models - precisely the factor most in question this year.  So results way outside the poll predictions should not surprise anyone. 

 

Posted by: non-purist at October 26, 2010 08:26 PM (7uwi7)

42 Permission to watch MSNBC on 11/2?

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2010 08:33 PM (gMzAL)

43 The Nevada vote buying with food and tickets is clearly illegal. Nevada law (NRS 293.700) provides that, "A person who bribes, offers to bribe, or us any other corrupt means, directly or indirectly, to influence any elector in giving his or her vote or to deter the elector from giving it is guilty of a category D felony and shall be punished as provided in NRS 193.130."

Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 08:33 PM (fjcig)

44

You guys are all insane.

Then again that is coming from me.

VOTE LIKE HELL.

Posted by: CAC at October 26, 2010 08:35 PM (lV4Fs)

45 When I look at the numbers......I fight the urge to touch myself.
Err.  In the paladin 'lay on hands' way, not the Samantha Fox way.  The filthy, dirty, sensual Samantha Fox way.

Ehem.

Posted by: Xenophon at October 26, 2010 08:36 PM (DasBz)

46 Permission to watch MSNBC on 11/2?

I assume Newsbusters will have any moments we need to see.  I'm looking forward to clips of The View more than anything else, though.

Posted by: Methos at October 26, 2010 08:37 PM (Ew1k4)

47 Alan Disgraceson will lose and take over Olbermann's post-meltdown dlot at MSLSD...

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 26, 2010 08:39 PM (gMzAL)

48 VOTE LIKE HELL.

Um, I didn't want to poo poo ace's GOTV efforts so I didn't say it in those threads.  I haven't convinced anyone to vote.  I mean I've been talking to lots of folks, I just can't find anyone who isn't already planning to.

Posted by: Methos at October 26, 2010 08:40 PM (Ew1k4)

49 Christina Amphlett of Divinyls has MS and breast cancer.

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 26, 2010 08:46 PM (9cflz)

50 I mean I've been talking to lots of folks, I just can't find anyone who isn't already planning to. Not necessarily. You may have talked some people off the fence who succumbed to peer pressure on the spot. I'm not a psychologist, nor do I play one on TV, but I can see that happening.

Posted by: fluffy optimist at October 26, 2010 08:46 PM (SwkdU)

51 Permission to watch MSNBC on 11/2?

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 27, 2010 12:33 AM (gMzAL)


Permission? That's an order, soldier.

Posted by: The Mega Independent at October 26, 2010 08:46 PM (5I0Yr)

52 The headline, U.S. Legislators Debate Internet “Kill Switch” for President, over at DefenseNews made me do a little double-take. The article stirs an important issue.

Posted by: Errol at October 26, 2010 08:49 PM (7f/h+)

53

http:// www.breitbart.tv/local-anchor-attacks-okeefe- on-air-in-incredible-hostile-interview/

 

Gonna try and post this, put spaces in. This is a major meltdown by this anchor.

Posted by: lou at October 26, 2010 08:57 PM (CtAJu)

54 Sorry, did not work, computer illiterate. Go to Breitbart.com

Posted by: lou at October 26, 2010 08:58 PM (CtAJu)

55

Too late to update predictions for our contest here-

but I have 62 as of today in the House. Tran looks to beat the Flamenco dancer Sanchez in CA

Posted by: Gerry Owen at October 26, 2010 08:59 PM (4ABat)

56 In other news, pudding stocks are trending up.

Posted by: Peaches at October 26, 2010 08:59 PM (zxpIo)

57

I get wood everytime I read election coverage. As it gets closer they have to be more and more honest. I called 70 seats, but I'm almost wishing I had kept with my prediction of 100 seats after the Cap and Tax vote.

 

Hell I work nights and am contemplating calling in sick to watch MSNBC

Posted by: Zakn at October 26, 2010 09:04 PM (2TqDD)

58 @54 Lou, yeah, linky broken. But it is up at the top at Breitbart.com. That was positively vile. I need a shower after watching that Philly news hack.

Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 09:05 PM (fjcig)

59 That was positively vile. I need a shower after watching that Philly news hack. Angry fucker, ain't he? O'Keefe handled himself well.

Posted by: fluffy, not paid to post comments at October 26, 2010 09:17 PM (SwkdU)

60 Anything under 115 seats in this environment will be a devastating loss to the cons.  The wave is over.

Posted by: Greg at October 26, 2010 09:17 PM (h/zKr)

61 Anything under 115 seats in this environment will be a devastating loss to the cons. So true. And yet, we won't have the good manners to roll over and die.

Posted by: fluffy at October 26, 2010 09:27 PM (SwkdU)

62 The SEIU is not just servicing your voting machines. I got a flu shot 2 weeks ago and the technician was wearing her button. I didn't see it until it was too late. Completely creeps me out.

Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 09:36 PM (fjcig)

63 Dems could lose 3-4 seats in Virginia alone. The 2nd and 5th districts will flip. The 11th is rated a tossup, and the 9th looks like it is moving to "lean R".
http://tinyurl.com/2ajufj6

If the D's lose that many just in Virginia, I think the D's will lose close to a 100.

Posted by: MrCaniac at October 26, 2010 09:40 PM (oREHE)

64 Unfortunately, I think here is Maryland is the remaining high ground for the Democrats.  Want to survive the Republican flood of 2010?  Run in Maryland.

Erhlich has run out of money to run spots; O'Malley has turned him into the incumbent. Even Andy Harris is getting pummeled by neg ads in the last weeks. That single seat pickup is all I can dare to hope for anymore.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2010 09:43 PM (bAySe)

65 That was some interview. More like a hostile cross examination. I love the concentration on who's funding it. What difference does it make? the devil himself could be funding it. No one made those teacher's say those things and there is no "context" in which they are appropriate.

Posted by: Rocks at October 26, 2010 09:45 PM (AoVGn)

66 The SEIU is not just servicing your voting machines. I got a flu shot 2 weeks ago and the technician was wearing her button.

Fire your doctorr.  Tell him why.  But get his wife's curried rice recipe first.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 26, 2010 09:46 PM (h/zKr)

67 Also, since the Primary I have seen a SINGLE ad for the Republican Senator challenging Mikulski, Eric Wargotz.  What gives?  Did he blow all his funds on the "insidersourus" ads to win the Primary only to get no new monies from donors?  I guess being out polled 54-38 will make it hard to fund raise.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2010 09:46 PM (bAySe)

68 My gut.. and the magic 8 ball says.... 75...

Posted by: Romeo13 at October 26, 2010 09:46 PM (AdK6a)

69 50 is low. Dick Morris, who is always right, said its 90.

Posted by: Barbarian at October 26, 2010 09:50 PM (EL+OC)

70 The nurses are from Kaiser Permanente.

Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 09:50 PM (fjcig)

71

Serious Cat,

LOL

<---from right outside of Baltimore.

I now live in California.

Sad- WE have more competitive races than Maryland does.

Posted by: CAC at October 26, 2010 09:51 PM (lV4Fs)

72 The nurses are from Kaiser Permanente.

Pit.  Bucket.  Lotion.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 26, 2010 09:53 PM (h/zKr)

73 71 My gut.. and the magic 8 ball says.... 75...

Posted by: Romeo13 at October 27, 2010 01:46 AM (AdK6a)

 

I just watched the view clip about sharon angle, brain bleach please!   these assholes are desperate. Even the so-called conservative is completely unhinghed and in the bank for the dems. They are grasping at slipping straws!!

 

Posted by: lou at October 26, 2010 09:55 PM (CtAJu)

74 Doesn't matter, all the damn outfits have SEIU nurses, technicians. At least where I live.

Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 09:55 PM (fjcig)

75

Well, off to bed. God bless you all! A prayer for mystry.

 

Posted by: lou at October 26, 2010 10:01 PM (CtAJu)

76

btw Survey USA seriously oversampled young voters and minorities for the california poll ...and still only showed Boxer up 5- at 45%.

So weve had 1 crappy poll, 3 outright frauds with their voter breakdowns- LA/USC, Suffolk, and PPP.

MAGICALLY Boxer jumps from 1.5 to 6 pts for a lead, but its a ruse.

Damn I will be laughing my ass off if indeed these numbers are way off as they look.

Posted by: CAC at October 26, 2010 10:09 PM (lV4Fs)

77 Fox 29 Philly.  It is Philly.  What do you guys expect?  Throwing snow balls at Santa?  Dog fighting Q-backs?  Mafia financed Polliticians?  Black Panthars at election day sites?  Even crooked cops.  The city is a cess pool.  I am lucky I got out of their many, many, years ago.

Posted by: Hous Bin Pharteen at October 26, 2010 10:12 PM (nRF6+)

78 Where is Ace going to be on Nov 2, and will it involve Andrea Mitchell and pudding again?

Posted by: Drew in MO at October 26, 2010 10:13 PM (R8S84)

79

According to RCP, 10/26/10:

Safe Senate Dem Seats: Inouye (HI), Mikulski (MD), Schumer (NY), Leahy (VT)

Likely Dem Seats: (CT), (DE), Gillibrand (NY), Wyden (OR) 

Toss-Ups: Boxer (CA), Bennet (CO), (IL), Reid (NV), (PA), Murray (WA), (WV)

They currently have 48 seats listed as Democrat , 45 as Republican, and 7 as Toss-Up.

 Posted by: Teresa

-----

Looking back in hindsight, after the Delaware, uhhh, situation, the GOP might have been wise to take a crack at boosting Huffman over Wyden in Oregon... who knows, maybe it would have had spill over effects in WA and CA.

The thing that bugs me about possibly not taking the Senate is that it probably rules out the possibility of forcing Obama to veto repeal & replace of Obamacare.  Hanging that decision on his neck in 2012 would have been very helpful.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 26, 2010 10:17 PM (bAySe)

80 I just got the news that mystry passed on.  What can I say?  I'm a moron.

I had the pleasure of meeting him only once, about a month or 6 weeks ago at the SW OH moron meet-up.  He was obviously very ill, but just as obviously was staring it in the face and taking it as what it was.  A true gentleman in every sense of the word.  That he got his absentee ballot in before the end is like sweet, sweet victory the taste of Dem tears.  Not surprising at all.

Godspeed, Ron.  May his memory be eternal!

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 26, 2010 10:20 PM (h/zKr)

81

I am still trying to figure out all the screw-ups with health care bull shit.  My health care was fine before they started to destroy it.  You have to realize how important it is, even i you are as healthy as an ox.

I was very healthy and in shape.  That all changed one morning when I was T-boned by a 20 year old with a long police record.  I have been dealing with recovering from it for 3 years.  The last thing I needed was Obumbercare.  We had an accident two weeks ago at the same spot with 3 teens in bad shape and one that did not make it.  (no seat belt)  I wonder how their health care is screwed up now?

Posted by: Hous Bin Pharteen at October 26, 2010 10:31 PM (nRF6+)

82

Do these frickin suck puppets really think we are gonna buy their bullshit stuff?

Get me grid coordinates and I will call in the AC-130's to hose them.  And not with a water hose.

Posted by: Hous Bin Pharteen at October 26, 2010 10:50 PM (nRF6+)

83 I can take UGG boots of your corpse, d-ck head.

Posted by: Hous Bin Pharteen at October 26, 2010 10:51 PM (nRF6+)

84

The fraud is the part that worries me.

This.

I'm the complete opposite of a conspiracy theorist- I've gone rounds with more than a few folks around here.  I still think fraud will be at an all time high this election- who's going to prosecute?  Holder?  Dem Secretaries of State who got elected on Soro's dime?  Why wouldn't the union / leftist types cheat? 

I'm predicting 49.5 R / 50.5 D in the Senate.  If the .5 sounds like I'm hedging my bets, it's because it is- I'm torn between 49/51 and 50/50.

Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 26, 2010 11:09 PM (VVDUu)

85

The HillÂ’s data confirm other public polling and expert predictions, some of which put the historic wave even higher than the 52 seats Democrats lost in 1994 and the 71 they lost in 1938.

Pollster Stuart Rothenberg wrote Tuesday that Democrats face the potential of “a political bloodbath the size of which we haven’t seen since the presidency of Franklin Delano Roosevelt.”


Yesssssss.... my Preciousssssss.....

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at October 26, 2010 11:15 PM (2MGtW)

86 Boxer is going with the "Fiorina will cut your social security" angle. Desperation.

Posted by: rawmuse at October 26, 2010 11:15 PM (fjcig)

87 Well, I worked a phone bank this evening.  Going to do it again over the weekend.

Posted by: Mary in LA at October 26, 2010 11:29 PM (x9+RF)

88 I am going to predict 42 now. Only because of the vast amount (at least 12 states worth) of voter fraud that has been caught.

I'm also thinking we'll gain 8-9 seats in the Senate now. CT is no longer GOP territory, alas.

Posted by: Banji Kazooie at October 27, 2010 12:14 AM (OaKsb)

89 Posted by: Serious Cat at October 27, 2010 02:17 AM (bAySe) No matter what, we should put a repeal vote out there. Something like 2/3 of the country supports it, which means that after a blowout election, we might even attract a certain number of Dems to vote in favor to cover their asses in 2012. Even if Toonces vetoes it, they can start to distance themselves from him. This all depends on the Republican majority not going woobly. If they do, it will be the end of that party.

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2010 12:29 AM (9Cooa)

90 No matter what, we should put a repeal vote out there. Something like 2/3 of the country supports it, which means that after a blowout election, we might even attract a certain number of Dems to vote in favor to cover their asses in 2012. Even if Toonces vetoes it, they can start to distance themselves from him.

This is the reason that I think it would be better for the Republicans to have 48-49 seats in the Senate.  They can push through a lot of reform, and pull off worried Dems looking to polish their "independent" creds before the 2012 elections.  With 51 senators, we are probably looking at a unified Democratic front, with the narrative for the election being that "the evil Republicans prevented us from doing all this good that we wanted to do!"

Posted by: Alex at October 27, 2010 12:41 AM (aAsSp)

91 Don't

Get

Cocky

Kid...

Posted by: backhoe at October 27, 2010 12:55 AM (0bk6W)

92 Posted by: Alex at October 27, 2010 04:41 AM (aAsSp) Point taken. But everything hinges on the Republicans doing what we want AND getting out the message of what and why they are doing what they're doing. Obviously the MFM propaganda arm will do what the can to quell that, but Americans I think no longer trust them. Lawmakers must be forced time and again to go on the record, for or against repeal, to be used in 2012 when they are up for reelection. Beyond that, we must call every czar and administration official before investigative committees early and often as well as de-fund as many of these agencies as possible to slow and tie up the leviathan. Then we can begin the process of reversal. It will take time but most of all dogged perseverance. That is the "X" factor that scares me most with the Repubs. By the way, I heard on Levin (I know, I know) that only 1/3 or so is up for election. If the entire Senate were in play, the Republicans would stand to win a filibuster-proof and even a veto-proof majority. This election is not the end of the struggle. We are at the very beginning of a long process and hopefully we will all take the coming victory and parlay it going forward for every election cycle. WE HAVE NOT EVEN BEGUN TO FIGHT! VICTORY

Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2010 01:05 AM (9Cooa)

93 Never knew the man. But read his sharing. His being was glaring. Mystry touched more than he knew.

Posted by: csr at October 27, 2010 02:34 AM (DLG6R)

94 Well, F&F's Gretchen just confirmed what we all pretty much strongly suspected. In a discussion about Joy Behar and her crap Getchen said she disagreed with EVERY policy put forth by Sharron Angle.

That pretty much tells you where she stands, she is an EXTREME libtard.

Posted by: Vic at October 27, 2010 02:58 AM (/jbAw)

95 I think our chances in the Senate are MUCH better than anyone thinks they are due to the fact that so many people going to vote for the Republican Rep in their district will just vote a STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN TICKET and thus vote for the Rep Senator as well even though they might have said they supported the incumbent Dem in a poll.

P.S., Have you seen how LONG these polls are with their 35 questions?  Who the hell has 30 minutes at dinner time to answer a damned poll?  Instead of just Republicans, Democrats and Independents, they need to add a category for "Complete Losers With Nothing Better To Do Than Answer A Poll At Dinnertime".

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 27, 2010 03:28 AM (Baf0e)

96 The best part about all this is that I expect the Economy to TAKE OFF after Republicans win back control.  Businesses are flush with cash but have held back on hiring because of the uncertainty brought on by Obama and the Dem Congress. 

With that uncertainty gone and 2 years of complete gridlock to look forward to, businesses will start to hire like mad.  You can already see this in the 1000 point runup of the stock market in anticipation.

P.S., And oh yeah, definitely looking forward to these leftists getting their butts investigated for the shenanigans they've been pulling.

Question: On a scale of 1 - 10, how PISSED is Obama right now?

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 27, 2010 03:32 AM (Baf0e)

97 Anyone in Harris County, True the Vote (truethevote.org) needs Spanish speaking poll watchers for the Ripley House early voting location. The election judge there is telling the people coming to vote that the have to vote Democrat at that location. We need bilingual poll watchers to counter this. Volunteer from the truethevote.org homepage.

Posted by: Troll Feeder at October 27, 2010 03:37 AM (ys50O)

98 The weather will be a HUGE factor as well.  Democrats who have been putting off voting until election day will look outside, see the rain and gloom and figure, what's the point, we are screwed anyway... and stay home.

The informed, motivated Dem electorate has already voted early.  The typical lazy Dem voter waits till election day.

God sent tornadoes to defeat the Bristish in 1814 (War of 1812) and he is sending rain in 2010.

Posted by: Bill Mitchell at October 27, 2010 03:37 AM (Baf0e)

99 What's going on in the Dakotas? I thought those two at-large seats were vulnerable, but the Hill is saying both Democrats are up?

Posted by: Gregory of Yardale at October 27, 2010 04:15 AM (YPivX)

100 Interesting comment over at HillBuzz about DE being so Dem a state based on registrations, but that large number of those Dems, who couldn't vote in primary, actually planning to vote for O'Donnell to send Obama and Co. message.

Posted by: ParisParamus at October 27, 2010 04:24 AM (gMzAL)

101 Okay, let's talk about the worst case. The apocalypse case:  the Dems really do steal this. They've rigged the electronic machines, printed up paper ballots, and lined up busloads of illegals. On November 3 the pundits in their media propaganda arm are talking cheerfully about how overrated the Tea Party movement was and how in the end the public chose to stick with the party of Hopenchange.

What do we do about it?

If voting fails, what's left?

Because all our talk about a shootin' revolution is due to turn into a case of put up or shut up on November 3.

Posted by: Trimegistus at October 27, 2010 05:07 AM (Z+rhq)

102 I know everyone has been saying I'm delusional with my 107 seat prediction. It isn't just pie-in-the-sky hopey feel-goodism. In 1994, we won 52 seats. That was with a good economy, a somewhat moderate Dem as President who was still liked by most of the country. The only scandal was the check-writing plague in the House. However, this was the first election where the internet and the information it allows people to glean was in full force. Independents still leaned left. Fast forward to today. Obama and the cranks of the Dem party have not hidden their leftism at all. It has been on full display since the great emaculation. Independents have left the Dems. Even with their machine and cheating, Dems only make up about 35-40% of the electorate. They could all come out and it wouldn't matter. They have lost the independent vote. Couple that with a depression and the rammed-down health care albatross and you have the makings of total annihilation. That is what my gut says. November 3 will be a nice day, but it is only the start.

If I'm wrong, then America truly has become Euro and I'll start looking for acreage in Wyoming for my future compound.

Posted by: Bruceinsocal at October 27, 2010 05:11 AM (J6hTO)

103 Going in to phone bank tomorrow.  Going to be the wave.

Posted by: Warthog at October 27, 2010 05:13 AM (WDySP)

104 Anybody know how Allen West is doing in his House race in FL?  I want that man in DC kicking RINO and socialist asses.

Posted by: Billy Batts at October 27, 2010 05:14 AM (K/USr)

105 96 That pretty much tells you where she stands, she is an EXTREME libtard.   Who is she?  Gretchen or Behar?  Can't say I've ever heard Gretchen inject her views about much of anything.

Posted by: Billy Batts at October 27, 2010 05:17 AM (K/USr)

106

I am still VERY concerned about the cheating. SEIU is servicing a lot of the voting machines. Now what could possibly go wrong with that... Hmmmm??

Up here in the Peoples Republic of Minnesota they've got all sorts of court cases against illegal votes by felons, etc. from the last election (anyone remember Diaper Boy and the magic 800 votes?). This time around there's a number of could-be close races. My district has Betty McCommie against a newcomer. I'm not sanguine about the number of magic votes that'll show up in the absentees, etc.

Posted by: chuck in st paul at October 27, 2010 05:17 AM (adr25)

107 103:  Public, easily monitored fora are not the best place to speak of such things, to the point of being highly counterproductive.

In any event, I think most of us still retain some belief it won't come to that.  Or barring that, we have faith the issue may be resolved short of the worst.

And if that fails...well, this may be an interesting November.


Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at October 27, 2010 05:22 AM (GBXon)

108 Nate Silver seemed comforted by these polls showing only 50, which really bums me out.  Like Ace said, we need them to wake up Nov. 3rd and feel like they've been raped by a midget with a broomstick, not feeling like they dodged a bullet.

Posted by: Dunkirk at October 27, 2010 05:33 AM (kbHJ6)

109 This shit isn't Predator. Payback time is for real. Get Some!

Posted by: Zakn at October 27, 2010 06:04 AM (zyaZ1)

110 Who is she?  Gretchen or Behar?  Can't say I've ever heard Gretchen inject her views about much of anything.

Posted by: Billy Batts at October 27, 2010 09:17 AM (K/USr)

Gretchen, she said she disagreed with every position Angle had. Not just most, but every position.

Posted by: Vic at October 27, 2010 06:04 AM (/jbAw)

111 I'm going to be Eeyore.

There will be rampant voter fraud. Democrats will win enough seats to retain s healthy majority. People will be angry, very angry.

Let's pray I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong.

Posted by: shibumi at October 27, 2010 06:38 AM (OKZrE)

112 I'm going to be Eeyore.

There will be rampant voter fraud. Democrats will win enough seats to retain s healthy majority. People will be angry, very angry.

Let's pray I'm wrong. I hope I'm wrong.

Posted by: shibumi at October 27, 2010 10:38 AM (OKZrE)

There is rampant fraud every election by Democrats and has been since 1830. Conditions are far less favorable for them this time - you can only trim so much, and with discouraged Dems you can do even less.

Like always, they will steal a few close ones. But most of the races won't be close at all, so no scope for the tricks.

No need for the tinfoil hat.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 27, 2010 06:52 AM (CN+Qv)

113 Rasmussen will show Raese collapsing in WV today and trailing Manchin.  So now we have CA, WV and WA out of reach.  Some wave...

Posted by: Greg at October 27, 2010 06:54 AM (huyI8)

114 Nate Silver seemed comforted by these polls showing only 50, which really bums me out.  Like Ace said, we need them to wake up Nov. 3rd and feel like they've been raped by a midget with a broomstick, not feeling like they dodged a bullet.

Posted by: Dunkirk at October 27, 2010 09:33 AM (kbHJ6)

I would love for the Demis to console themselves that historic losses aren't so bad. Not learning from failure is the best way to fail again next election.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 27, 2010 06:55 AM (CN+Qv)

115 "Question: On a scale of 1 - 10, how PISSED is Obama right now?"

Word has it he's all wee wee'd up.

Posted by: Foole In The Rain at October 27, 2010 06:58 AM (pELFl)

116 Okay, Shibumi: if people are very, very, very angry -- what then? What do we do? What do you and I do?

Posted by: Trimegistus at October 27, 2010 10:42 AM (LzyJ+)

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