Posted by: AmishDude at October 23, 2010 04:40 PM (3wPsb)

Even if they try, they are likely to be underestimating the effect. Hence the tendency for races to 'break the same way' -- its not the races as much as the bad measurements beforehand.

Although there can be a 'lets get in on the popular wave' effect in these votes.

A little off topic, but I am curious. Why are there ads bashing Meg Whitman displayed?  Jerry Brown doesn't deserve the same treatment? Or is it that all money spends the same?

Posted by: cali grump at October 23, 2010 04:52 PM (hL0k

It's dark and it stinks in here. There's crap all over the place and half-eaten food.

Damn, I wish his Mom made him clean his room.

#20 Meg is smart enough to know how AoS readers are going to vote. Jerry, not so smart.

Also, I believe Clark Co. has more residents than the rest of Nevada combined, by a large margin, so all Reid has to do is win in Clark and he's back in office.

I know a few dems in Clark county that can't wait to vote Reid out.  They're tired of seeing their hotels and casinos only a third full.  They don't like the fact that their homes are only worth half as much too. 

I know a few dems in Clark county that can't wait to vote Reid out.  They're tired of seeing their hotels and casinos only a third full.  They don't like the fact that their homes are only worth half as much too. 

Posted by: Soona at October 23, 2010 04:59 PM (T7oti)

Yes, you could easily argue that most of these early D votes are turncoats rather than eager loyalists. Or that the fraction is more R than normal, anyway.

Hard to imagine any eager R voting D this year.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 23, 2010 05:02 PM (CN+Qv)

My friend, Harry Reid needs another term in office to finalize immigration reform. So, I'm crossing the border to vote for him,

Thanks Oldcat,

I did not think that Jerry Brown's campaign could be that stupid, enjoy spending the idiots money on Valu-rite and bacon then.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 23, 2010 04:57 PM (bAySe)

Are you up Cleveland way?

Has the corruption investigation made a big difference?

Posted by: Oldcat at October 23, 2010 05:06 PM (CN+Qv)

http://tinyurl.com/245z5e9

Have you seen my wife - I'm eager, buddy. Just gotta talk to Bob Dole about some Vigara. Via Las Vegas!

Posted by: buzz at October 23, 2010 05:14 PM (i27M5)

Is your full name  buzzkill or something?

Based on the Las Vegas Review Journal poll a week ago that had Angle up 2 points and their "raw data" crosstab numbers and my crude and questionable skillz at math, I calculate a 48.2----44.8 Angle advantage of 3.4 percent not counting undecided.

That poll was taken right before the debate that Angle won, so its possible she improved on her percentages with independents and democrats. She gained two points overall post debate according to rassmussen so that possible.

My concern is that republicans are super excited and therefor coming out early. Lets hope Harry has a very organised early voting push, otherwise a 3.4 point lead isn't much.

Please somebody, correct my math if I am wrong.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 23, 2010 04:57 PM (bAySe)

Hmmm... are those Abscentee vote requests following along the lines of actual voter registration?  ie... is there that many more D's registered than R or I's???

Or is there a disproportionate amount of d's asking for ballots?

Please somebody, correct my math if I am wrong.

I would but I'm too hungover to think.  I will take your word for it.

Hmmm... are those Abscentee vote requests following along the lines of actual voter registration? ie... is there that many more D's registered than R or I's???

Or is there a disproportionate amount of d's asking for ballots?

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 23, 2010 05:41 PM (bAySe)

WOW... more I's than D's and R's combined???? tells me they are not happy with EITHER party...

This looks great.

But the Winston Wolf Rule applies.

Hey guys, my wife and I have been helping with the GOTV for Col West and we just talked with some poll workers.  The Republican voting here in FL has been rediculous during early voting.  In St. Johns county (where I live) the Republicans alone will surpass the all time combined (R + D + I) early voting numbers for many precincts.   

Keep pushing.  Register with the GOP or a local campaign to help get those conservatives who usually only vote during presidential years to the booth.  They have lists of those type of voters.  We need all hands on deck.

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 23, 2010 07:18 PM (0fzsA)

Hey, did you catch the two latest polls on the gov race out your way?  I read today in the Compost they are really putting the pressure on Maes to get lost.

I underestimated both Tancrazy's resolve and Maes checkered history originally.  He needs to drop out, or he will be persona non grata within the party forever.

Hey, did you catch the two latest polls on the gov race out your way?  I read today in the Compost they are really putting the pressure on Maes to get lost.

I underestimated both Tancrazy's resolve and Maes checkered history originally.  He needs to drop out, or he will be persona non grata within the party forever.

Well, many of the Central and East TX M&Ms have been dealing with the nasty weather. We have both a tornado watch and warning right now, and Dallas had both earlier in the day as well. It will soon be in Louisiana.

Well five hours later and I got rid of of some fucking Think Point malware.

Was that the one next to the Microsoft Window logo?

I had to do a recovery and reload everything.

Fuckers, I lost a lot of music.

Well, many of the Central and East TX M&Ms have been dealing with the nasty weather. We have both a tornado watch and warning right now, and Dallas had both earlier in the day as well. It will soon be in Louisiana.

Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at October 23, 2010 08:06 PM (Yq+qN)

--Great football on today too.  LSU-Auburn was a nice old school game.

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 23, 2010 07:56 PM (0fzsA)

Yup, the big money trio ruining Colorado.  I got to hand it to TT, he was right and I was wrong.  Of course I didn't know all of Maes baggage when I first voiced my opinion, but TT probably did.  Maes is unelectable, third party or not. 

TT has given Colorado a fighting chance in this race. Wadhams really botched the whole thing.

Posted by: Garbonzo the Garrulous at October 23, 2010 08:07 PM (23kaI)

Good point.  Guys like Medved hate Tancredo.  He's not my 1st choice by far either, but far better than Hick.

Posted by: Greg at October 23, 2010 08:12 PM (7+pP9)

That spike in Barry's ratings comes after he announced he was leaving the country on a long trip.

Posted by: Bob at October 23, 2010 08:19 PM (4DoFz)

And that was when Newsweek actually had money to buy a poll, or staffers to write one up. These days they probably just reprinted an old article with a new title.

Yup, the big money trio ruining Colorado.  I got to hand it to TT, he was right and I was wrong.  Of course I didn't know all of Maes baggage when I first voiced my opinion, but TT probably did.  Maes is unelectable, third party or not. 

TT has given Colorado a fighting chance in this race. Wadhams really botched the whole thing.

Posted by: Delta Smelt channeling Lloyd Christmas at October 23, 2010 08:15 PM (A0VTZ)

--I just saw that a lot of pro-lifers are also backing Tancredo.

Posted by: logprof at October 23, 2010 08:21 PM (BP6Z1)

Yeah, they are really working(pretty effectively it looks like) for tea party support as well.

Hick calling everyone outside of Denver...well... Hicks among other things, didn't hurt TT either.

Was that the one next to the Microsoft Window logo?

I had to do a recovery and reload everything.

Fuckers, I lost a lot of music.

Posted by: ErikW at October 23, 2010 08:11 PM (qe3z4)

That's the one. Fuck'n shit.

Posted by: lowandslow at October 23, 2010 08:26 PM (GZitp)

Backup HD, copy your music once and bank it.

Posted by: HeatherRadish is drunk and happy at October 23, 2010 08:24 PM (Vz9lf)

Drunk and happy huh?

I take it you watched the game today?

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 23, 2010 08:39 PM (0fzsA)

I've always liked Hick personally, but what an outrageous thing to say.  He's usually alot more savvy and disciplined than that. 

 I can't say I object to the mask slipping 10 days before the election though.

I've got the Vikings in pickem, so I have to root for Farve.  Hopefully Little Brett is staying out of trouble tonight.

man, i sure wish i knew where to find some cheap whatever the fuck is in 132

Hickenlooper started a brew pub... (didn't he?)  How bad can he be?

He did.  Wynkoop Brewery in downtown was his 1st restaurant.  What's good for Denver (by lib dim standards) isn't so good for Colorado. Even if he is a pretty decent fellow.

Posted by: Palerider at October 23, 2010 08:58 PM (ITaIZ)

Mayoral elections in Denver are non partisan.  He certainly played the role of  hip, outside the box, businessman though, and compared to some of the other candidates who were Wellington Webb clones, he really stood out.  The swpl really liked him.

more lisa murslutski bullshit

on a saturday a retired judge ordered miller's personal records released to the mfm

why didn't they do that to obama?  that would have been interesting

http://tinyurl.com/37m9tf4

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 23, 2010 09:01 PM (c0A3e)

These are the dirty little october surprises. Small shit like this, kinda like the dumbass phoenix guy getting suspicious powder. Give me a break! If Alaska falls for this, they get what they deserve!

And this will help the dem for sure!

I've got the Vikings in pickem, so I have to root for Farve.  Hopefully Little Brett is staying out of trouble tonight.

Posted by: Delta Smelt at October 23, 2010 08:50 PM (A0VTZ)

You can always root for a lot of kick and punt return TDs.

why didn't they do that to obama?  that would have been interesting

Posted by: navycopjoe aka democrat god at October 23, 2010 09:06 PM (S9k9+)

I have no records.  I am whatever you want me to be.  I am a clean slate.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at October 23, 2010 09:10 PM (c0A3e)

I thought that's what you meant when you said "Democrat". 

156  Your divine powers are weakening. 

nah, i had to make my girl a sammich, slowed me down

^{_{(shut it, editor)}}

^{_{(shut it, editor)}}

Posted by: navycopjoe aka democrat god at October 23, 2010 09:13 PM (S9k9+)

What?  My wife's making me a sammich, right now.  She just got back from a pedicure, so I caught her in a good mood.

if he's retired, then he needs to shut up, he no longer has any authority and his opinion carries no weight.

167  you know what i meant

tomorrow is another soccer match, so far 5 maches...3 red cards

what will she do next?

"How can a retired judge order it?"

No, he can't, that's why he needs to shut the hell up.

Its like a retired doctor who can no longer write prescriptions, once the licence is expired, he cannot write prescriptions.

heh

for all the dad's with little girls out there

http://tinyurl.com/2wvz58p

That bitch is gonna get the dem elected. Thanks entrenched repubs for letting this bitch keep her energy post, they should have come out guns blazing for her.  Pissed!!

They picked the best of a tough decision. They made it quite clear they backed Miller & made her resign from her leadership post but let her keep the energy post for now in order to not burn bridges should she survive.

And if she does survive (still not all that likely - these polls cannot replicate the 'write in' experience - remember she's not going to be on the ballot), you'll be happy when she votes for Mitch McConnell in January.

Posted by: Jack Ryan, Fucked after Fucking His Wife in 2004 at October 23, 2010 09:20 PM (uCjoj)

Someone last night posted shes been squawking how the repubs are gonna have to kiss her ass a little. I wish I remember who said it. Some smart aos commentor. I am just sick of the alaska race already, and will be glad when this f'n election is over. Sorry, just kinda had it with the dirty politics.

what will she do next?

Posted by: navycopjoe aka democrat god at October 23, 2010 09:21 PM (S9k9+)

Whatever it is you can blame it on Brandi Chastain.

Its like a retired doctor who can no longer write prescriptions, once the licence is expired, he cannot write prescriptions.

But he already served his purpose with this toothless ruling - undermining Miller 10 days before the election.

179  yep, she created a monster

too bad i can't blame buuuuush or the juuuuuuuuuus

CAC and Ace,

I was at Van Tran's campaign headquarters this afternoon making calls.  Van Tran of course is running against the liberal democrat incumbent Loretta Sanchez in Orange County, California's 47th congressional district. 

I met with Van Tran and all of his campaign workers and made personally over 100 plus calls. 

The energy and momentum is with Van Tran.

Forget the script when calling for our candidates.  I told them we expect the vote and that we want them to go out and get at least 10 others to vote.

Be the Wave . . . lets go baby.

Then she ran that digusting Ted Stevens ad.

Yeah, thats sick!!

Fucking low. Fucking pathetic.

Classless bitch.

Posted by: Jack Ryan, Fucked after Fucking His Wife in 2004 at October 23, 2010 09:30 PM (uCjoj)

--Weren't Stevens and Murkowski pére actually rivals?  I don't get it.

Journo I missed you there. I dropped off some Carly signs about 10:40, heard Van Tran and Roger then walked a precinct...

I got a lot of I already voted for him. and a lot of smiles and thank yous....

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 23, 2010 09:31 PM (9cflz)

Reasonably long..gets a little crusty. but if overnight, try the freezer instead.

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 23, 2010 09:31 PM (9cflz)

--Put it in the freezer instead.

179  i'm blaming this dude for last week

http://tinyurl.com/39lp9wm

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 23, 2010 09:38 PM (9cflz)

--Why not treat yourself and buy a fresh one on Election Day?

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at October 23, 2010 09:31 PM (9cflz)

--Put it in the freezer instead.

Posted by: logprof at October 23, 2010 09:34 PM (BP6Z1)

Depending on the flavor, just put some vodka in it and drink it! Tee Hee

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 23, 2010 04:35 PM (bAySe)

I just went and looked at Allegany County MD which is that long thin piece of maryland next to PA and WV. The early voting is very republican. This may be good news for PA and WV. Screw Md, if that dwarf freak is safe then they would elect a turd.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 23, 2010 09:39 PM (bAySe)

Yeah, kinda puts her in cahoots with the Maine sisters in my book!

Posted by: jewells45 at October 23, 2010 09:44 PM (Z71Vg)

--Mizzou kicked a FG at the gun to take the lead, 17-14.

Yeah, kinda puts her in cahoots with the Maine sisters in my book!

Posted by: lou at October 23, 2010 09:42 PM (CtAJu)

As far as I know, the Maine sisters never did anything like that. Weaksauce Republican, ok fine. Don't vote hard R because Maine doesn't like it, maybe. But spit on your own R constituents -- thats treason, be you squish, elitist, or rock hard conservative.

Posted by: Juan Williams at October 23, 2010 09:44 PM (SMqnS)

That's as funny as the "do I look like a Jar Jar? Say Jedi mind trick again, I dare you"

seriosly it made me LOL!

179  i'm blaming this dude for last week

Posted by: navycopjoe aka democrat god at October 23, 2010 09:39 PM (S9k9+)

Net als die kak?

do write in candidates normally win?

I mean, voter fraud is hard, considering you have to actually write in a name, right?  and does the name have to spelled out completely?  no "LisaM"? what was the ruling on that?

Posted by: johnc_recent_EX-dem at October 23, 2010 09:45 PM (ACkhT)

As another retired judge, he can give a counter ruling. Then we can wait for a retired Alaska supreme court judgement.

Posted by: toby928™ at October 23, 2010 09:50 PM (S5YRY)

Ironically, his name was "None OfTheAbove"

"Ironically, his name was "None OfTheAbove""

LOL.

219 do write in candidates normally win?

In the history of the US, one Senator has been elected to a full term by write-in.

One.

And I was that man

As far as I know, the Maine sisters never did anything like that. Weaksauce Republican, ok fine. Don't vote hard R because Maine doesn't like it, maybe. But spit on your own R constituents -- thats treason, be you squish, elitist, or rock hard conservative.

Despite what seemed to be a bruising August for health care reform efforts, Congress still appears to be on a path to pass a bill this year. At the center of that effort is one Republican, Sen. Olympia Snowe of Maine. Snowe is perhaps that most moderate Republican remaining since Sen. Arlen Specter jumped ship to the Democrats. this year shows that she is more likely to vote with the Democrats than to vote with her Republican peers. It comes as little wonder that she would be targeted as the deciding vote on health care reform.

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 23, 2010 09:51 PM (bAySe)

Done.  Will donate to her, my wife and MIL will as well.

Is she the rocket scientist?

Ironically, his name was "None OfTheAbove"

Posted by: Oldcat at October 23, 2010 09:51 PM (CN+Qv)

You know what?  Considering they're not really into that whole "representative" thing, anymore, I have no problem with sending None to Washington.  None will do a lot less harm.

Is she the rocket scientist?

Posted by: johnc_recent_EX-dem at October 23, 2010 09:53 PM (ACkhT)

--Yup.  Just remember, though: Republicans are Teh STOOPID Party

You know what?  Considering they're not really into that whole "representative" thing, anymore, I have no problem with sending None to Washington.  None will do a lot less harm.

Posted by: Editor at October 23, 2010 09:54 PM (YX6i/)

Massachusetts refused to send another Senator to DC after Charles Sumner was beaten on the Senate floor by pro-slavery Rep Preston Brooks with a cane..  He was gone for years.

They figured the empty seat would say more than a replacement would.

Posted by: logprof at October 23, 2010 09:54 PM (BP6Z1

Just want them to get in and out quickly with a win.  No shame in that.  I'd hate to see them lose to Gay Cutlet's old alma mater.

 Snowe is perhaps that most moderate Republican remaining since Sen. Arlen Specter jumped ship to the Democrats. this year shows that she is more likely to vote with the Democrats than to vote with her Republican peers.

Posted by: lou at October 23, 2010 09:53 PM (CtAJu)

I am aware of that. Just on the levels of political contemptableness, spitting on the voters far far far outweighs breaking party ranks like Snow et al do.

I'm not saying I'm all OK with them, but the RINO-iest RINO is far better than these 'screw the primary, im running twice' traitors. One is betraying colleagues every so often. The other betrays Democracy. 

Wow, harry reid ad calls angle a hypocrit because angles husband draws a government pension. He is just f'n crazy.

God I hope my fellow Nevadans get rid of this piece of shit!!

Posted by: Serious Cat at October 23, 2010 09:51 PM (bAySe)

I have given sooo much money to candidates, this year.  Guess what I get in return?  A whole lotta emails asking for more money.  I'm spent.  I just gave to Doug Cloud (the dude running against Norm Dicks) a little bit, ago.  Wish I could help you out here, but don't know if I could stand anymore email.  Literally, it has to be up to 4-5 per hour at this point, asking for dough.

Koster, Watkins, Herrera, Muri, Cloud (whoohoo!), Rossi, Rubio, Benishik, Bielat, Angle, da Witch, Miller, ace and probably a couple more I can't remember. 

 Snowe is perhaps that most moderate Republican remaining since Sen. Arlen Specter jumped ship to the Democrats. this year shows that she is more likely to vote with the Democrats than to vote with her Republican peers.

Posted by: lou at October 23, 2010 09:53 PM (CtAJu)

I am aware of that. Just on the levels of political contemptableness, spitting on the voters far far far outweighs breaking party ranks like Snow et al do.

I'm not saying I'm all OK with them, but the RINO-iest RINO is far better than these 'screw the primary, im running twice' traitors. One is betraying colleagues every so often. The other betrays Democracy. 

Posted by: Oldcat at October 23, 2010 10:03 PM (CN+Qv)

OK I will give you that. At least they vote to fund our Military!

Looks like the National Progressive Radio is doubling down on its path down the toilet.

Now, the CEO is saying Juan Williams violated "ethical standards".  So first he is a cukoo for saying for 80% of americans think and feel, yet has no issues with Nina Totenburg saying she wishes the grandkids of a senator get AIDS.  And now Williams is "unethical"??

what a bunch of a$$holes.  The only icing is that this happened during fundraising week.  I've never donated to NPR, by wife and MIL have, and still do, and they will never be giving a dime again  to this censored radio station.

Koster, Watkins, Herrera, Muri, Cloud (whoohoo!), Rossi, Rubio, Benishik, Bielat, Angle, da Witch, Miller, ace and probably a couple more I can't remember. 

Posted by: Editor at October 23, 2010 10:04 PM (YX6i/)

--Sounds like it would be easier to give to DeMint's PAC and let them allocate the $$$

There is one thing I wish these candidate do, stop sending me mail asking for more money!!!!

I don't mind the constant emails, I can erase those, but my mailbox is full with so many letters.

--Sounds like it would be easier to give to DeMint's PAC and let them allocate the $$$

Posted by: logprof at October 23, 2010 10:06 PM (BP6Z1)

Maybe, but it's been spread-out over the year.  I gave to Benishik as soon as THE vote happened.  That was the first donation, this year.

what a bunch of a$$holes.  The only icing is that this happened during fundraising week.  I've never donated to NPR, by wife and MIL have, and still do, and they will never be giving a dime again  to this censored radio station.

Posted by: johnc_recent_EX-dem at October 23, 2010 10:05 PM (ACkhT)

Of course you've donated to NPR. We all have. That's the problem.

As to the accusation, its just the same one repeated. Since having different views is a moral failing to them, Juan is therefore immoral for saying what they don't want said.

I don't mind the constant emails, I can erase those, but my mailbox is full with so many letters.

Posted by: johnc_recent_EX-dem at October 23, 2010 10:07 PM (ACkhT)

yeah, forgot about that shit, too.  I'm even getting mail from Zombie Reagan. 

Posted by: HeatherRadish is drunk and happy at October 23, 2010 10:08 PM (Vz9lf)

Not as large when we cut that shit back.

Posted by: HeatherRadish is drunk and happy at October 23, 2010 10:08 PM (Vz9lf)

And all the money he got from shady land deals!! Release land to the blm and then buy it dirt cheap, and sell to developers for top dollar! What a scumbag!

And all the money he got from shady land deals!! Release land to the blm and then buy it dirt cheap, and sell to developers for top dollar! What a scumbag!

Posted by: lou at October 23, 2010 10:14 PM (CtAJu)

Well, to be fair, since those deals are the point for Reid being in office, its hard to call him Hypocritical on the issue. Corrupt, yes, Hypocritcal no.

And all the money he got from shady land deals!! Release land to the blm and then buy it dirt cheap, and sell to developers for top dollar! What a scumbag!

Posted by: lou at October 23, 2010 10:14 PM (CtAJu)

Well, to be fair, since those deals are the point for Reid being in office, its hard to call him Hypocritical on the issue. Corrupt, yes, Hypocritcal no.

Posted by: Oldcat at October 23, 2010 10:17 PM (CN+Qv)

OK, but we can all agree he is a f'n scumbag!

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