July 01, 2010
— Ace Alan Simpson is one of ours; but what about Democrat Erskine Bowles?
Bowles is actually suggesting a not-so-horrible solution focusing chiefly (but only chiefly) on spending cuts.
Bowles, a North Carolina investment banker and former Clinton White House chief of staff, is suggesting a cap on overall government spending and revenue of 21 percent of gross domestic product. The federal government currently spends 25 percent of GDP and takes in 15 percent as revenue, though both numbers are a bit distorted by the recent recession. By 2035, according to the Congressional Budget Office, spending could leap to 35 percent of GDP with revenue at 19 percent. By those numbers Bowles is suggesting that some 90 percent of the gap should be closed by cutting the spending side of the ledger....
All this would, of course, require massive restructuring of social entitlements. In return, other panel Democrats would demand higher taxes — a supposed “no go” zone for Republicans. But perhaps such a heavy bias toward spending cuts could pry loose a couple of GOPers if tax increases focused on eliminating breaks rather than raising rates.
Then again, tax increases of any sort might not be necessary, assuming spending cuts. If the economy grows somewhat more like it has through the 20th century than what is assumed by dreary CBO forecasts, that alone would reduce projected budget deficits by 25 percent in 2035.
One way to view this is that if Erskine Bowles is offering this as his first negotiating point, we can pull him closer to something good.
One suspicion I have, though -- and I may be overthinking/conspiracy-theorizing here -- is that if Bowles and Simpson have made a deal, where in they swap places, basically, and Bowles offers a spending-cut heavy plan to try to win over the Democrats, but Simpson will reciprocate and sell the GOP on higher taxes.
Each man agrees with the other to use his credibility with his respective tribe to push the other's priority, figuring, perhaps, that that way, at least they can get both sides closer to each other for a deal.
I realize this opinion may not be popular, but several years after the Bush tax cuts I thought he'd cut tax rates too much, since, even in the growing-economy years of 2006 and 2007, we were still running a $200 billion deficit. Yes, I know, he also overspent, but one has to calculate the nation's unending appetite for government spending into one's budget plans. (The nation claims a higher commitment to lower government spending than it actually believes in; a lot of people are rugged individualists with no need for government money at all, at least until their own subsidy is on the chopping block.)
I started to think that rather than cutting to nice multiples-of-five numbers 10%, 15%, and 25% for the lower income brackets, he should have cut (later data suggested) to 10.5%, 15.5%, and 25.5%, or even 11%, 16%, 26%. Not that he should have known this a priori or anything; but if a deficit remains persistent (even if relatively small) in times of growth, then your income to outgo ratio is off. Either one needs to be higher or the other lower.
I'd've preferred Bush hadn't just spent himself up a storm, but, if he knew himself he was game for some Big Daddy Government, he should have been a little more conservative on the tax-cut side.
There's a certain moral issue that attaches for many (including me) about running up the debt rather than getting our priorities and budgets squared away and shipshape. Certainly his relatively puny deficits were used against him politically.
Posted by: Ace at
11:01 AM
| Comments (72)
Post contains 625 words, total size 4 kb.
He's saying something about a trap? Know what that means?
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at July 01, 2010 11:03 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: dr kill at July 01, 2010 11:06 AM (w9bVp)
No way Obama & Co. are cutting entitlements. They rely on entitlements for votes. But defense spending? Not necessary politically.
After all, we can live in a fantasy world where the Navy has the equipment it needs. But some crack-smoking welfare recipient in Chicago needs more money? He'll get it pronto. Because that's fair.
Posted by: Benson at July 01, 2010 11:06 AM (qzcNU)
Alan Simpson is one of ours
Oh.no..no..no...no..NO!!!!
Simpson has never met a tax increase he didn't like. Why do you think he got appointed to this charade?
Posted by: Bubble Ba'athist at July 01, 2010 11:06 AM (AnTyA)
And I must have missed the part of freedom where the government is entitled to take 20-fricking-percent of every single dime earned in this country. Of the entire GDP. For ... no good reason at all.
Posted by: Ella at July 01, 2010 11:08 AM (DmnMk)
Alan Simpson is one of ours; but what about Democrat Erskine Bowles?
Eh. Alan Simpson isn't completely reliable. Kind of a western RINO sometimes.
Posted by: rdbrewer at July 01, 2010 11:08 AM (4sj7x)
Posted by: joncelli at July 01, 2010 11:10 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: XBradTC at July 01, 2010 11:10 AM (adLBy)
Spending cuts to Libtards is merely cutting something that evil Conservatives want...like defense of the United States.
So unless Bwaney Fwank figures out that "wubameens r looooong mebal bubes fulla seeemen" there won't be any more of those.
Posted by: torabora at July 01, 2010 11:10 AM (cZgRW)
Remember: we're talking about a Congress and president who believe more spending is the sole answer to everything.
Somehow, we need to get actual human beings into D.C. before the big-government binge destroys us.
It seems inevitable we'll all have to pay more to clean up the mess made bad by Bush and infinitely worse by Osama Obama, but until the "servants of the people" get their minds right, any increase in funds going to D.C. will simply be pissed away.
What we're doing now is like buying Valu-Rite for drunken hobos, without the fun.
Posted by: MrScribbler at July 01, 2010 11:10 AM (Ulu3i)
I think Simpson is aware his role is to whitewash the turd they come up with. And he's been enough of a pure pol to perfect the art of whitewashing turds.
Remember he went on a lovey publicity tour with Robert Reich? That had to take a lot of pure inner self-bullshit.
Posted by: rdbrewer at July 01, 2010 11:10 AM (4sj7x)
He is a FUCKING DEMOCRAT!
His daddy was a democrat, lost Gov race in NC, Erskine, is a loser too, so what about this is hard about this to figure out?
It's a cover for the VAT.
I would have hoped you could see through this.
HELLO??
Posted by: Kemp at July 01, 2010 11:12 AM (2+9Yx)
Posted by: joeindc44 at July 01, 2010 11:12 AM (QxSug)
Posted by: ChicagoJedi at July 01, 2010 11:13 AM (WZFkG)
Posted by: Vince at July 01, 2010 11:13 AM (GpQZ/)
He was liberal on social issues, which is fine but he doesn't have a whole bunch of conservative credibility elsewhere. He actually said "gay" is an artificial category that tells us nothing.
He even wants separate courts established to deal with health care.
Posted by: Benson at July 01, 2010 11:13 AM (qzcNU)
One suspicion I have, though -- and I may be overthinking/conspiracy-theorizing here -- is that if Bowles and Simpson have made a deal, where in they swap places, basically, and Bowles offers a spending-cut heavy plan to try to win over the Democrats, but Simpson will reciprocate and sell the GOP on higher taxes.
Each man agrees with the other to use his credibility with his respective tribe to push the other's priority, figuring, perhaps, that that way, at least they can get both sides closer to each other for a deal.
That sounds about right.
Posted by: rdbrewer at July 01, 2010 11:14 AM (4sj7x)
Posted by: rdbrewer at July 01, 2010 11:14 AM (4sj7x)
One likely effect is equal revenues, but with lower overall economic growth.
Posted by: looking closely at July 01, 2010 11:15 AM (6Q9g2)
Its always amused me that the Tea Tax, which was one trigger for the American Revolution... was 12.5%.
My how our standards have changed.
Posted by: Romeo13 at July 01, 2010 11:15 AM (77Zbc)
It's not unending. It ends (badly). But until it does, it's ever-expanding.
That's why some old-timey proto-Paultards took it into account and put a bunch of "says here that's against the rules"-type hard-right purist stuff in the Constitution.
It's too late for that now, of course. And it's power-seeking appetite-calculating that made it that way. So fuck it. Do some more.
Posted by: oblig. at July 01, 2010 11:16 AM (x7Ao8)
Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at July 01, 2010 11:16 AM (HaYO4)
I just can't possibly envision Obama and the still-Democrat majority Congress actually enacting any.
If they had their way, they'd *STILL* be increasing spending, not decreasing it.
Posted by: looking closely at July 01, 2010 11:16 AM (6Q9g2)
Posted by: XBradTC at July 01, 2010 11:17 AM (adLBy)
Posted by: XBradTC at July 01, 2010 03:10 PM (adLBy)
Yep, and you have to look at the Total tax burden on your citizens... ie State, Local, Property.... everything.
Posted by: Romeo13 at July 01, 2010 11:18 AM (77Zbc)
Ace, this is nothing but smoke, mirrors, dogs and ponies, with a unicorn thrown in just for the contrast. This administration has absolutely no intention of doing anything to curb gubmint spending by one penny.
I'l know they're serious when the EPA, the Energy Department and the Education Depts. are eliminated and not before.
They could also stop wasting our taxes on aid to places like Saudi Arabia and Turkey that aren't exactly our friends.
I know I'm dealing with logic and those number thingies, but that's just the way this moron rolls.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at July 01, 2010 11:18 AM (i3AsK)
Now I support a huge tax increase, but I don't think that anyone of either party would support a surtax on legal fees.
Posted by: AmishDude at July 01, 2010 11:18 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: conscious, but incoherent at July 01, 2010 11:19 AM (YVZlY)
When the Dept of Ag disappears I'll believe they might be getting serious.
Ahem. If you can't get rid of *us*, the venerable Dept of Ag. isn't going anywhere.
Posted by: Departments of Energy, Education, and Natl Endowment for Arts at July 01, 2010 11:20 AM (ujg0T)
Tax increases do not increase revenue in the long run.
Tax increases do not increase revenue in the long run.
Tax increases do not increase revenue in the long run.
Got that yet, or do you need it one more time?
Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at July 01, 2010 11:20 AM (SCcgT)
Posted by: XBradTC at July 01, 2010 11:20 AM (adLBy)
Can't cover the deficit? Quit spending on everything except military and borders. Gut the EPA. Gut the Dept of Education. Gut the Dept. of Agriculture. Gut the pukes in the Forest Service. Disembowel the entire bureaucracy. Put welfare recipients to work on the infrastructure, if nothing else. Better yet, cut them off.
Posted by: kathysaysso at July 01, 2010 11:21 AM (ZtwUX)
Tax increases do not increase revenue in the long run.
Now wait a minute. Taxing lawyers would cause economically-damaging activity to decrease and have a secondary effect resulting in massive economic growth.
Posted by: AmishDude at July 01, 2010 11:22 AM (T0NGe)
13 Ace, I know Erskine.
He is a FUCKING DEMOCRAT!
His daddy was a democrat,
His granddaddy was a fucking communist
Posted by: Bubble Ba'athist at July 01, 2010 11:24 AM (AnTyA)
XBradTC makes an excellent point. Out of principal all working people should pay some sort of tax, and any tax increase should be applied across all tax brackets.
A while ago I posted the notion of a fixed reduction of spending across everything. Say eight or seven percent a year for three or four years and this would include everything, entitlements, military, and discretionary spending. The rebuttal was that it was not politically viable. I'm not so sure. If everyone is impacted, then it helps neutralize the blame game. Frankly unless there is a great compromise where everyone has to sacrifice we will end up thrashing where each political party will get tossed out of office and where there will be no continuity of a long term policy for recovery, and that is at the end of the day the goal we should be shooting for: stability in the private and public sector.
Innovation and job growth come primarily from small businesses. Who in their right mind would float a new business in this climate where the political winds and the burden of small business employers are being subjected to crazy new rules involving health care, and the uncertainties of demand and of the health of financial institutions.
Posted by: fapo at July 01, 2010 11:27 AM (TcaE8)
Posted by: Bubble Ba'athist at July 01, 2010 11:28 AM (AnTyA)
Posted by: Departments of Energy, Education, and Natl Endowment for Arts at July 01, 2010 11:29 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Bubble Ba'athist at July 01, 2010 11:32 AM (AnTyA)
You're not going to get any Congress to go along with a four year plan.
Even a spending freeze (which is a good idea. . .thanks Senator McCain) probably wouldn't hold firm for four years.
Every Congress would find "exceptions" to fund. That's what they do.
Politically speaking, there is probably a better chance of a one time massive cut, than a slow drawdown . . .though I can't even see the latter happening.
Posted by: looking closely at July 01, 2010 11:33 AM (PwGfd)
let me guess.... a 5% reduction in entitlements which are realized by increasing the entitlements by only10% instead of the planned 15%, along with a 40% reduction in defense spending, realized by an actual 40% cut in defense spending.
Fuck You Democrats.
Posted by: Terry at July 01, 2010 11:35 AM (ddL+W)
There was a link to a study floating around here a few months ago. The study "showed" that on the Laffer curve, the optimal taxation rates are much higher than they are today.
I think the study was a bullshit self-inoculation from the left-hand side. They pretended to cave on the Laffer concept but then pulled numbers out of their asses until they got the higher taxation that they want to use to enslave us.
Some people--even here--took their chicanery at face value.
If any of the cocksucking authors of that study want to flash their economist credentials, then I have one word for them: "Unexpectedly." That word has been used in countless fucking headlines tracking our economic doom since Retarded Barry started squatting in the Oval Office.
Posted by: MikeO at July 01, 2010 11:36 AM (lBmZl)
Posted by: XBradTC at July 01, 2010 11:43 AM (adLBy)
Are these fuckheads starting to realize that when Daddy has been laid off, were 6 months behind on the house payment and we are eating plain rice 7 days a week for dinner that this isn't the best time to plan a family trip to motha-fuckin Disneyland?
I fuckin doubt it
*warning number 2: I am not really sure if this is a metaphor
Posted by: Lemmiwinks at July 01, 2010 11:44 AM (IqfKc)
In other words, if the study was correct, the Kennedy and Reagan tax cuts should have lowered revenues and shrunk the economy.
Kind of like how low prices have bankrupted Walmart and CostCo....Oh wait a minute
Posted by: Lemmiwinks at July 01, 2010 11:46 AM (IqfKc)
I'd just like to point out, or reiterate if it was said, that bringing things down to somewhere between 2008 & 2009 spending levels won't cut it. Obama & Pelosi jacked the baseline sky-high with their last budgets, stimulus, emergency bills, and supplementals.
Also ignore the usual bullshit framing a cutting of the rate of increase as an actual spending cut. Not going stem the tide of doom, so don't fall for it. We need radical across the board cuts and returning to limited government. We will have limited government, eventually, either by choice or because we kill our currency/credit and can really afford to do nothing.
Posted by: Randy at July 01, 2010 11:48 AM (zQKSr)
I'm with you. I am not saying that Ace believes it. I'm just saying that it's out there, and some folks on the right believe that rates are lower than the Laffer optimum.
Posted by: MikeO at July 01, 2010 11:50 AM (lBmZl)
Do not be fooled by rhetoric from writers nobody has ever heard of.
Posted by: Vic at July 01, 2010 11:50 AM (6taRI)
"The Ant and the Grasshopper" was probably already ancient when Aesop gave it his treatment over 2,500 years ago.
Posted by: MikeO at July 01, 2010 11:53 AM (lBmZl)
The Democrats LIE. That's what they DO. If you believe anything positive will come out of this committee, you are fooling yourself. All they're looking to do is damage Simpson (if he's "one of us").
Posted by: BeckoningChasm at July 01, 2010 11:54 AM (eNxMU)
What? The devil you say!
Posted by: George Herbert Walker Bush (c. 1990) at July 01, 2010 12:05 PM (T0NGe)
As for the proposed "spending cuts/tax increases", when have the Democrats ever cut or frozen non-defense spending? They could have worked with Bush I in 1990 but they said "Spending cuts? Hell No!" and he caved just like every other RINO before and after.
I'd just like to point out, or reiterate if it was said, that bringing things down to somewhere between 2008 & 2009 spending levels won't cut it.
I thought I had read somewhere that we could balance the budget immediately simply by reducing spending to 2005/2006 levels.
Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at July 01, 2010 12:12 PM (JxMoP)
Posted by: ace at July 01, 2010 01:19 PM (SsvUp)
Ace you dumb as a rock. From what you quoted:
is suggesting a cap on overall government spending and revenue of 21 percent of gross domestic product. The federal government currently spends 25 percent of GDP and takes in 15 percent as revenue,
So they want to increase revenue 6% of GDP and only decrease spending 4% of GDP. Sounds like to me there is more revenue increase then spending cuts, 50% more in fact. Don't worry about 2035 because, you know, that's 25 years into the future. Economists can't even reliably predict even 2 years into the future.
Past Democrat behavior has always been to raise taxes and promise spending cuts. Even under Gramm-Rudman, which I recall was a dollar for dollar deficit reduction deal, the spending cuts never really materialized as witness by the actual dollar growth in government during that period.
And as others suggested any baseline shouldn't include Obama's massive spending spree the past two years.
Posted by: Prof. Venkman at July 01, 2010 01:33 PM (Bs34i)
Posted by: ace at July 01, 2010 01:39 PM (SsvUp)
Posted by: ace at July 01, 2010 01:40 PM (SsvUp)
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Posted by: m7pq at July 01, 2010 02:25 PM (o/LQe)
The problem isn't necessarily the rates - it's the narrowness of the tax base and the complexity / coercive nature of the income tax system.
We have so many deductions and such low rates at the bottom, that the income tax collects nothing from 45% of the population.
On the flip side, social security taxes are capped at around 110,000, so you're tax base is limited there as well.
Flat tax of approximately 20%. Standard deduction of about $16,000 for singles, $32,000 for a family, + $5,000 per child. No other deductions.
Uncap social security taxes.
Lower corporate and capital gains taxes to 15% - flat.
Cap government spending at 21% of GDP.
Posted by: stickety at July 01, 2010 02:50 PM (EsWC3)
You people have got this all wrong. We are going to cut across the board, and spread the pain evenly and fairly. 98% from defense, entitlements and domestic spending will bear the brunt of the other 2%.
...what?
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Posted by: Truman North at July 01, 2010 11:03 AM (e8YaH)