June 21, 2010
— Gabriel Malor Not to be outdone by the Fightin' Fundi Muther Hucker, Ron Paul gave an interview to the Daily Caller in which he suggests that things might be different this time around, if you know what I'm saying.
Ron Paul says he hasnÂ’t decided if he'll challenge President Obama for re-election in 2012, but he does predict that Republicans will be more open than they were in 2008 to nominating a libertarian-minded candidate."I think thereÂ’s no doubt about it," Paul said in an interview with The Daily Caller.
[...]
"I think even the issue of the Federal Reserve — that issue is almost mainstream," he said. "And I think things have shifted because of the financial crisis as well as the bogging down of our foreign policy. So the American people are looking for some different answers."
No doubt about it, huh? Let's pull the most recent numbers out there:
Ron Paul's favorability with Republican primary voters, at 29/25, is actually worse than the 35/25 we found for him on our poll with independents. That's just more evidence that he might be a bigger player in the 2012 contest if he decided to run as a third party candidate than he would be staying as a GOP also ran.
For comparison's sake, the favorable/unfavorable for other candidates among Republican primary voters:
Palin: 65/17
Gingrich: 58/18
Romney: 57/14
Huckabee: 53/15
I'm sure 2012, like 2008 in the last two months of the campaign, is going to be all about the economy. More than that, it's going to be about voters (especially baby boomers) scared for their retirements and their children's jobs. And there's going to be quite a bit of anger about the Obama government's years of waste.
Which is exactly why only crazy independents are going to vote for a guy who is one of the worst abusers of earmarks in the GOP, won't shut up about the gold standard and fiat currency, thinks the economy tanked because of our "empire", thinks that free trade agreements threaten U.S. sovereignty, wants to abolish social security, and has some...other issues, shall we say.
As one of the commenters said about Sir Hucksalot, when it comes to Ron Paul, FYNQ.
More on Libertarians: Don't get me wrong, I agree with Paul that the GOP may be more open to Libertarian ideas in 2012. But it's going to be the same fiscal conservative ideas that have had a place in the GOP since Reagan.
The "Uncle Fluffy" Libertarianism of Ron Paul and the college kids? Never going to happen. Legalizing marijuana? I love the idea. But it's probably not going to get many GOP followers in 2012. Abolishing social security? Not a bad idea, certainly workable, but whoever we nominate is going to need just a few Baby Boomer votes, y'know? Going to a gold standard? Eesh, we want to grow the economy, not cut it to pieces. Let's try and keep it a little real, okay?
When Paul says the GOP may be more open to Libertarianism, what we're looking at is what will motivate voters. In 2004, most voters were motivated by the War on Terror. In 2008, in the last months of the campaign it was the economy. It's a little early to say where the 2012 campaign will end up, but on the front side, the emphasis has been about the economy.
Mitch Daniels is in trouble for recognizing that, but jumping to the wrong conclusion that voters will want a "truce" on social issues. It's not about a "truce", though. It's about motivation. What will motivate more people, a strong fiscal candidate or a strong socially conservative candidate? I almost can't keep a straight face writing it, but how about a Libertarian?
The problem with the hypothetical Libertarian candidate is that he'll do some things to piss off the fiscal voters and do some things to piss of the social cons, making him not that great a motivator. And while he may get some independents who usually sit out to vote, he's probably also going to turn off the great movable middle that we'll need to persuade if we want to depose Obama.
So, sure, Libertarian ideas may get a hearing in 2012. I buy that. I doubt that they'll be chief motivators for GOP voters, though.
Posted by: Gabriel Malor at
08:46 AM
| Comments (137)
Post contains 733 words, total size 5 kb.
Posted by: Intrepid at June 21, 2010 08:48 AM (92zkk)
Don't just assume 2012 will be about the economy. You know, world events and terrorist attacks and loose shit like that could happen.
Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at June 21, 2010 08:48 AM (ZESU0)
Posted by: nickless at June 21, 2010 08:50 AM (MMC8r)
Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at June 21, 2010 08:51 AM (ZESU0)
Posted by: The Federal Reserve System at June 21, 2010 08:51 AM (AZGON)
Chris Christi/Mike Pence..
...Christi for his take no fucking prisoners attitude...and Pence with the experience dealing with the idiots on both sides in Congress
Posted by: beedubya at June 21, 2010 08:52 AM (AnTyA)
shut up about the gold standard and fiat currency
As opposed to Stagflation 2.0 the Obamunists will probably cause?
Once again:
Where Ron Paul is pretty cool: Domestic Policy (immigration included here)
Where Ron Paul is batshit and needs to be laughed off: Foreign Policy (defense included here)
That rests the case for, and against, Ron Paul.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 08:53 AM (ujg0T)
Conservatives (and libertarians) have good reasons not to support Paul, but Republican primary voters reject him because he's not Huck enough.
53/15? Jesus F. Fuck.
Posted by: oblig. at June 21, 2010 08:53 AM (x7Ao8)
He would lose all 57 states. The guy is a crazy old loon and only crazy loons take him seriously.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 21, 2010 08:55 AM (+BcQ3)
Posted by: John Galt at June 21, 2010 08:55 AM (F/4zf)
Posted by: George Orwell at June 21, 2010 08:56 AM (AZGON)
I see we have a fan of "Dumb and Dumber" here with us today.
"So you mean there IS a chance."
"One in a million."
Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at June 21, 2010 08:56 AM (ZESU0)
Sure... all the way into fiscal insolvency.
Until Republicans grow some balls and start to acknowledge that you can't spend more than you take in (just every Republican in living memory is guilty of this - including Reagan), it's only a question of how badly we're screwed.
Posted by: Evil Red Scandi at June 21, 2010 08:57 AM (erlfI)
Legalizing marijuana? I love the idea. But it's probably not going to get many GOP followers in 2012.
Can we affix this somewhere permanently? Because whenever someone dumps on Christians for being icky Christians who will blindly and stupidly lead the GOP over a cliff with fringe issues, I can then quietly point to this. Can anyone cite a poll from any outlet (except Rolling Stones and High Times) that proves that this is a swing issue that will galvinze support (votes and/or money)? Where does this fit on Mitch Daniels' priority list?
Posted by: Blue Hen at June 21, 2010 08:58 AM (R2fpr)
thinks that free trade agreements threaten U.S. sovereignty
Mexican truck drivers and smuggled illegal aliens could not be reached for comment.
I *get* that Paulians are foreign policy naifs and kooks. But if you are "sure 2012, like 2008 in the last two months of the campaign, is going to be all about the economy", what is the problem?
Frankly, I am not so sure. The appeasement and surrender policies of the Obamunists may ignite a war and USA losses in the next two and a half years. Which is why the batshit Paulians are non-starters. But if it was about domestic policy only, again, what is the problem?
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 08:58 AM (ujg0T)
Until Republicans grow some balls and start to acknowledge that you can't spend more than you take in (just every Republican in living memory is guilty of this - including Reagan), it's only a question of how badly we're screwed.
Yeah--so let's play with pixie dust and fairy farts about how Ron Effing Paul and his insanity posse are the answer. One can plan on REALITY (see Paul Ryan for instance) without resorting to TEH CRAZY.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at June 21, 2010 09:00 AM (+BcQ3)
Here's where I put in my disclaimer that, yes, I did vote for Paul in the primary 2008. Some of you can quit reading what follows now.
Rest of you still here? Fine.
Re Ron Paul and Huckabee both, 2012 is a ways away, and there will be plenty of Republican politicos with the level of star power to get the base out.
People like Paul and Huckabee show up when the Republican Party bigwigs tell its own base what is good for it: nice, don't-rock-the-boat-too-much caretakers like McCain, Romney, and the various Bushes. When that happens, we the primary voters get the message that the race is effectively over. Some of us will choose between Romney and McCain.
People like me don't approve of those choices, so we vote for the kook who Sends A Message. Huckabee is aligned with social-conservatives, so his voters are telling the RNC they want more social conservatism. Paul is aligned with libertarians and fiscal-literates; I'm more inclined to the latter, so I went with him.
I hope that the Tea Party will force the Nice Republicans who were in charge back in '08 to get a clue, and either to leave well enough alone or else to nominate more Christies and fewer Crists. Then the base(s) of the Republicans won't feel the need to send that message.
I think Paul is right that 2010 and 2012 are setting up to be libertarian years, and that social-conservatives will end up less relevant. However I also think that it won't benefit Paul, because I'm expecting a major war to break out; and Paul's a pacifist and pro-Arabia. (Also, Paul's gettin' old. Happens to all of us.)
Posted by: Zimriel at June 21, 2010 09:03 AM (9Sbz+)
Posted by: willow at June 21, 2010 09:04 AM (HyUIR)
Posted by: George Orwell at June 21, 2010 09:04 AM (AZGON)
But it's probably not going to get many GOP followers in 2012.
Think again if that shitstain Huckabee is the GOP nominee.
Posted by: laceyunderalls at June 21, 2010 09:04 AM (pLTLS)
Libertarian is generally the least popular of the three legs of the conservative tripod, but has benefited from Obama's overreach.
Run on rollback of the Obama agenda, and then when we win quietly pursue a completely conservative agenda.
Posted by: 18-1 at June 21, 2010 09:04 AM (bgcml)
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 09:07 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: GOP elitism without a sense of irony at June 21, 2010 09:07 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Mud at June 21, 2010 09:08 AM (ogtvQ)
Republicans do better, MUCH better in elections when the populace thinks they stand for something different from the Dems - 2004, 1994, etc, and MUCH worse when the public doesn't see much difference - 2008, 2006, 1996, etc.
The record is pretty clear. People will vote for conservatives if given the choice, or fluffier moderates, aka Democrats, if they are not.
Posted by: 18-1 at June 21, 2010 09:08 AM (bgcml)
Huckabee is aligned with social-conservatives, so his voters are telling the RNC they want more social conservatism. Paul is aligned with libertarians and fiscal-literates; I'm more inclined to the latter, so I went with him.
Is it a Hegelian dialectic in the GOP? If Huck is Thesis and Paul is Antithesis, who can be synthesis? Thune? Palin? Cantor?
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 09:09 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Bugler at June 21, 2010 09:10 AM (VXBR1)
Posted by: iowavette at June 21, 2010 09:10 AM (0JTac)
Posted by: Johnnyreb at June 21, 2010 09:10 AM (y67bA)
Sure... all the way into fiscal insolvency
Social Security is already insolvent...the GOP should be blasting the Jackassocrats daily on their blocking of reform..
..course they won't..cuz that would make them look like meanies
Posted by: beedubya at June 21, 2010 09:10 AM (AnTyA)
My early hope for 2012: Ryan, Christie, and Palin. Pick any two.
Posted by: Randy at June 21, 2010 09:10 AM (zQKSr)
Posted by: Mud
Obama 2012- going full Biden!!
Posted by: Blue Hen at June 21, 2010 09:11 AM (R2fpr)
Posted by: GOP elitism without a sense of irony at June 21, 2010 01:07
PM (AZGON)
Yeah...these guys need to go.
I would suggest though that Republicans paint running on a return to pre-2008 as the moderate course, and continuing Obama's extreme agenda as the radical course.
Yes, the media will fight for the opposite interpretation, but I think it is a simple enough argument for the 2010 election that the media will have trouble defeating the argument...
Posted by: 18-1 at June 21, 2010 09:11 AM (bgcml)
Also, Huck's a social conservative? How? Seriously, how is believing in liberation theology socially *conservative*?
Posted by: alexthechick at June 21, 2010 09:12 AM (8WZWv)
Posted by: Bugler at June 21, 2010 01:10 PM (VXBR1)
I would have understood if a la 1994 the Reps of 2004 had fought and lost - the State Media is a powerful ally to the Left - but the fact that they wasted that opportunity and have been Dem-lites since then has been astounding.
Posted by: 18-1 at June 21, 2010 09:13 AM (bgcml)
Posted by: Paulbot at June 21, 2010 09:14 AM (DYJjQ)
Posted by: alexthechick at June 21, 2010 01:12 PM
He's a Baptist Minister from the South. He could campaign under portraits of Lenin and Stalin, and they would still try to sell him to us as "socially conservative."
Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at June 21, 2010 09:15 AM (ZESU0)
My dream ticket: Ryan / Christie with a promise to appoint Palin as Secretary of the Interior. That or Palin should march into the RNC office, throw out Mikey Steele with his own testicles, and take his seat.
Actually if Palin could go that last thing by around 3 PM eastern-time today, that'd be super
Posted by: Zimriel at June 21, 2010 09:15 AM (9Sbz+)
Posted by: maddogg at June 21, 2010 09:16 AM (OlN4e)
Posted by: Alvin Greene at June 21, 2010 09:16 AM (VXBR1)
And, as is obligatory when discussing Kucinich, here's a pic of his wife. So not fair that he's married to an Elven Queen. So. Not. Fair.
Posted by: alexthechick at June 21, 2010 09:17 AM (8WZWv)
Posted by: Paulbot with knowledge of exponents at June 21, 2010 09:17 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: nevergiveup at June 21, 2010 09:18 AM (0GFWk)
If the Repubs do very well in 2010 with Michael Steele attending bondage clubs and complaining about conservatives, does that mean we are stuck with him through 2012?
Posted by: 18-1 at June 21, 2010 09:18 AM (bgcml)
You see, Gabe, it's remarks like that which brand you as A Sellout Eleventy!!!11!
What, you think we want to win elections, or something?
As opposed to pretending nothing is wrong with the Age 65 retirement age, and proposing modest privatizations that may improve rates of return, but that the Demunists will only demogogue anyway?
Reality: Reitrement ages *will* have to be raised to 70 if not 75, and retirement will have to be postponed for most people. People are living longer and birth rates have fallen. Too many oldsters, not enough younguns, proportionately.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 09:18 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: George Orwell at June 21, 2010 09:19 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: robtr at June 21, 2010 09:19 AM (fwSHf)
My dream ticket: Ryan / Christie with a promise to appoint Palin as Secretary of the Interior. That or Palin should march into the RNC office, throw out Mikey Steele with his own testicles, and take his seat.
Actually if Palin could go that last thing by around 3 PM eastern-time today, that'd be super
Posted by: Zimriel
That last bit might prove to be a biiig fundraiser.
Posted by: Blue Hen at June 21, 2010 09:19 AM (R2fpr)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 09:20 AM (4Pleu)
And, as is obligatory when discussing Kucinich, here's a pic of his wife. So not fair that he's married to an Elven Queen. So. Not. Fair.
She's also a batshit lefty Brit. AOSHQ periodically posts lame stories of appeasement and political cowardice from the UK, but we have to understand where they come from. They come from people like her, despite her hotness. Whatever happened to some good English Roses?
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 09:21 AM (ujg0T)
I think every candidate* in GOP primary needs to promise to support the eventual winner 100%. Paul did not do that in 2008, and he won't do it in 2012 either and that speaks volumes about him.
*I was going to say serious candidates but then I remembered we're talking about Ron Paul here.
Posted by: buzzion at June 21, 2010 09:21 AM (oVQFe)
Posted by: DrewM
Well now you have your answer.
Posted by: Dr. Spank at June 21, 2010 09:23 AM (xO+6C)
The GOP needs to stop being the "democrat-lite/Socialist-lite" party.
Yeah - there's plenty of room for liberty, independence, and other fed -up constituencies. Now if the GOP would just get out of its own way.
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at June 21, 2010 09:23 AM (0fzsA)
mmmm, smell that blood in the water.
Chum away, Gabe.
I dislike Paul, but I LOATHE Fuckabee.
It would be a tough call who to despise more in the primaries. I would stick to my guns and just not vote (we're screwed royally anyway if that's the choice) if Huck got the nod in the general, though.
Another W, but without the slightest hint of small-government conservatism, is NOT what we need right now.
Preening moralistic fucker. And I say this as a pretty hard core social con.
Posted by: s'moron at June 21, 2010 09:23 AM (UaxA0)
Posted by: curious at June 21, 2010 09:23 AM (p302b)
Posted by: Bugler at June 21, 2010 09:23 AM (VXBR1)
Obama administration leaking substance:
Even though he's an asshole, if Emanuel leaves, he will take with him some of the only true substance that this administration is already suffering a deficit of.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at June 21, 2010 09:23 AM (RkRxq)
One of the puzzles of the modern world is how libertarianism ended up associated with miserable, incompetent, unelectable bumblefucks like the LP and your average libertarian.
The crowning achievement of enlightenment era political philosophy is in the hands of complete asshats.
Posted by: Ronsonic at June 21, 2010 09:24 AM (VTm+A)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 01:20 PM (4Pleu)
If you talk to a Libertarian about foreign policy, you would never know that such a thing as the Cold War ever existed. It's kind of amazing. Liberals have the same problem - as self-proclaimed Libertarians and liberals tend to be in sync on foreign policy for most issues.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at June 21, 2010 09:24 AM (Qp4DT)
This sounds like a misrepresentation of his position. He has repeatedly said that we can't afford our empire, but he lays the blame for the economic catastrophe on the Fed, the Congress, and other actors.
You guys want small government and low taxation. Not sure how you can get there without cutting back the humongous "defense" budget. (Yes, I put that in quotes; not sure how any one can pretend that so many of our so-called defense expenditures actually defend us rather than expose us to greater danger. [See Korea, for instance]).
Jim
(Cue thoughtful response: "Jim, you are a moron.")
Posted by: Jim at June 21, 2010 09:25 AM (/Mtjv)
Posted by: George Orwell at June 21, 2010 09:25 AM (AZGON)
The crowning achievement of enlightenment era political philosophy is in the hands of complete asshats.
Posted by: Ronsonic at June 21, 2010 01:24 PM (VTm+A)
Pot heads.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at June 21, 2010 09:26 AM (Qp4DT)
Posted by: curious at June 21, 2010 09:26 AM (p302b)
Jim
(Cue thoughtful response: "Jim, you are a moron.")
Posted by: Jim
cue definition of the word 'empire'. Get busy Jim.
Posted by: Blue Hen at June 21, 2010 09:27 AM (R2fpr)
Posted by: Accountant, AOSHQ at June 21, 2010 09:28 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Bugler at June 21, 2010 09:29 AM (VXBR1)
Posted by: Ronsonic at June 21, 2010 01:24 PM (VTm+A)
Pot heads.
Posted by: progressoverpeace at June 21, 2010 01:26 PM (Qp4DT)
And specifically I think the major libertarian outreach to college students in the 90s. In winning over the dopetarians, they lost their souls...
Posted by: 18-1 at June 21, 2010 09:29 AM (bgcml)
Dude, I am not interested in her for her brains. Or speaking. Stand there and shut up is about the right speed for her.
Posted by: alexthechick at June 21, 2010 09:32 AM (8WZWv)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 09:32 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Lincolntf at June 21, 2010 09:32 AM (TPEo9)
Posted by: Dan at June 21, 2010 09:33 AM (1jzSs)
Dude, I am not interested in her for her brains. Or speaking. Stand there and shut up is about the right speed for her.
Posted by: alexthechick
I want very much to see your newsletter. With pictures.
Posted by: Blue Hen at June 21, 2010 09:33 AM (R2fpr)
Posted by: Mud at June 21, 2010 09:34 AM (ogtvQ)
Dude, I am not interested in her for her brains. Or speaking. Stand there and shut up is about the right speed for her.
Posted by: alexthechick at June 21, 2010 01:32 PM (8WZWv)
Well I don't know about that. She is British afterall. I wouldn't want her to shut up. Just give her a limited list of words to choose from. "Dirty" and "Naughty" among them.
Posted by: buzzion at June 21, 2010 09:35 AM (oVQFe)
Posted by: Dan at June 21, 2010 09:35 AM (1jzSs)
Can someone tell me if there is a first principle of libertarianism? I've read it's "no initiation of force," or some variety of "do as you like as long as you do no harm to others." If so, what would be the libertarian argument against, say, necrophilia? If the libertarian objection is based on property rights of the dead person's family in the body, then make it an animal.
Posted by: Tom Petty, having a last dance with Mary Jane at June 21, 2010 09:36 AM (kuZ4a)
Posted by: George Orwell at June 21, 2010 09:38 AM (AZGON)
"What will motivate more people, a strong fiscal candidate or a strong socially conservative candidate?"
Why does it have to be either/or? Most conservatives are both. If you only have the one, you have a libertarian. If you only have the other, you have a populist. The GOP is primarily (membership wise, not it's ruling clique, unfortunately) conservative, and wants candidates who will be right ALL the time, not just part of the time, and who will be ready to lead on the issues, regardless of what the issue of the day may be.
Posted by: Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus at June 21, 2010 09:38 AM (DrGKS)
Abolish the Air Force. It's an artifact of the Cold War, and in an increasingly pilotless UAV world, it's an anachronism. Fold the service into the Army or Navy (probably Navy, because of the stronger aviator presence). Rotary-wing aircraft are already part of the Army, so no changes needed there.
Uh, no. Even before it was a separate branch in 1947, the USAAF was *huge*.
Strategic bombing? Still a reality.
Air superiority? Still necessary.
Close air support? Perhaps one can argue that the USAF should have stayed the USAAF, because the regular Army influence kept that paramount. (See how the fine A-10 Warthog was treated as an unwanted stepchild by many USAF brass).
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 09:39 AM (ujg0T)
See? Easy.
Posted by: Monty
The Air Force currently controls all of our heavy lift capability. We've already seen what happens when one of the services gets a mission that they decide it out of their preferred/core mission, when the Air Force kept trying to stop A-10 production and fobbed them off to the ANG. One of the reasons that the USMC maintains air wings is to ensure an air component that will support its core mission. For years, the Navy had a reputation of only grudgingly acquiring and supporting any aircraft that couldn't operate from a carrier. The ASW bombers were the exception, and that was part of the strategic mission that involved the US Navy maintaining multiple air stations patrolling the US coast.
Posted by: Blue Hen at June 21, 2010 09:40 AM (R2fpr)
I have been told for many years that if a RINO wins the primary I MUST support him/her. Well I have done just that and look where we are? A TOTAL FUCKING DISASTER!
So I am done with that. If Romney or Huckabee is the nominee (or others) I WILL STAY HOME. I will not donate money. I will do nothing.
Sorry, but no. What saddens me is how the Real Conservatives will support an Establishment GOP RINO should he win the primary, but the Establishment *will not* do the converse.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 09:41 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 09:43 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus at June 21, 2010 09:45 AM (DrGKS)
I don't care who you insult or praise - if you squishies don't throw your lot behind whoever the Tea Parties bless, then you're going to endure Democrats for years to come.
Then again, you'll enjoy your Folsom Street Fairs, Up Your Alleys, fetus-drillings, and whatever other "progressive" things you happen to like, because they'll be around every street corner.
Posted by: angryoldfatman at June 21, 2010 09:45 AM (Yw4kE)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 09:47 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: ed at June 21, 2010 09:50 AM (Urhve)
"If you must have human beings drive the plane, the Navy can do it just as well as the Air Force. "
So Monty, does that mean we could start making jokes like "Did you know the Air Force is a Department of the Navy?" "Yeah, the women's department!!"
Posted by: Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus at June 21, 2010 09:51 AM (DrGKS)
Neither of which is going to require human pilots within about five years.
Projections like this were made in the 1950's, it was believed guided missile technology would take over. The reality? Fighter jocks flying "lead sleds" over Vietnam, built to carry a load guided missiles but not to dogfight, were down from the 10:1 kill ratios of WW2 and Korea down to 1:1 - parity - against the North Vietnamese! Ack!
Also, "strategic bombing" hasn't been conducted since World War II by the United States. In what way is it still a "reality"? The whole thing now is precision: using one small bomb to take out a few bad guys, instead of a lot of big bombs that take out an entire city block.
More accurate long range strategic bombing is still long range strategic bombing. The B-52s may carry JDAMS now, but the principle is still the same. Don't confuse the number of planes with the nature of the mission.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 09:52 AM (ujg0T)
The Air Force is about bombers, not fighters, and bombing is old-fashioned. Cruise missiles and even conventionally-armed ballistic missiles can do the job just as well, and at far less cost. If you must have human beings drive the plane, the Navy can do it just as well as the Air Force.
Sorry, but next you will be telling me the (Army) Air Force and Navy can use the same plane. They tried that in the McNamara Era and found it wanting. Sorry, but you are rehashing a debate from the 1950's and 1960's, and your side didn't fare well either. Better machines are great, but they *do not* replace the manned pilot. They just don't. Maybe one day....
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 09:54 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Lincolntf at June 21, 2010 09:56 AM (TPEo9)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 10:02 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 10:04 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 10:05 AM (4Pleu)
Legal pot will get the krazy kollege kids until you tell them that it isn't free pot.
Posted by: AmishDude at June 21, 2010 10:14 AM (T0NGe)
Posted by: Dan at June 21, 2010 10:14 AM (1jzSs)
Posted by: Lincolntf at June 21, 2010 10:16 AM (TPEo9)
If I only need to drop a single bomb on a single mud hut or yurt for a "strategic" result, why do I need a B-52 to do it?
Because:
(1) politically, sometimes you just can't station *any* land based aircraft, manned or unmanned, within short - range distance, and
(2) carrier based aircraft just can't pack enough punch and still fit on a carrier. They also had this debate in the 1950's, when the Navy argued for nuclear deterrent light bombers on carriers. (See A3D / A-3 Skywarrior and A3J / A-5 Vigilante). They just couldn't pack enough punch and still fit.
Moreover, a B-52 (or now a B-2) can loiter and take out literally dozens of huts, while the drone is usually a one shot deal and after a few huts the carrier based plane runs out of fuel range and has to turn for home.
Predators have been doing yeoman "strategic" work in Pakistan for years. Big bombers are not needed. I can't even think of a scenario any more where they would be needed in any conflict we might have.
*cough* Red China *cough*.
Any target-package you can think of can be handled just as well by cruise missiles, Predator drones, or long-range arty with GPS shells.
You are making a political assumption that may not hold up. Even the longest range arty would still have to be stationed close by, and that may become politically impossible in Pock-ee-stahn given the Obamunists any day now, or even in Iraq if the Status of Forces agreement stands.
The only exception is CAS, and the Army and Navy could cover this quite well. Better than the Air Force, actually, because it'd be in their own chains of command.
Here, you have a point. It may be time for a revived USAAF for just this purpose, or perhaps cross training West Pointers in Colorado Springs and vice versa.
Our air-superiority fighters haven't faced a worthy enemy in decades, and aren't likely to before robots take over.
Somewhere Zombie Robert McNamara is smiling. This has been asserted before.
The F-22 is so much better than any other plane in the air right now that other countries have basically just quit trying. Better to build lots of cheaper and less-capable planes than try to match the Americans in air-superiority.
Somewhere Gary Hart, who in 1984 wanted three F-5's for every one F-16, is also smiling.
In short: we haven't faced a real air-superiority enemy for 30 years (the Russians over Vietnam), and aren't likely to any time soon.
Once again, *cough* Red China *cough*. Assuming we will always be deterring / fighting ragheads isn't right.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 10:21 AM (ujg0T)
I understood that this was the whole point of the JSF/F-35. Was I misinformed?
You were not misinformed, but sadly, history will repeat itself. See TFX / F-111, and see also F-4. The Air Force and Navy have different needs.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 10:25 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 02:05 PM (4Pleu)
Different versions. The Naval variant has a beefier undercarriage and the hardware to accomodate the catapults and arrestor wires found on carriers, and the ariel refuelling system is different. And then there's the VTOL version that the Marines will be operating.
Posted by: ol_dirty_/b/tard at June 21, 2010 10:27 AM (IoUF1)
Which makes me think I'm speaking to a retired AF guy.
Not me, just my old man.
No offense, dude, but human pilots are on the way out. The Predator is just the first wave of that reality. It will continue.
Sorry, but WE HAVE HEARD THIS BEFORE. Or my old man heard it in his day. See BOMARC, and Matador, and Snark. Missile tech is cool, but it *still* can't replace the pilot.
(This reminds me of that argument in the movie The Right Stuff, where Pancho is saying, "There has to be some son-of-a-bitch to take the thing up; and some son-of-a-bitch has to bring it back down. And that son-of-a-bitch is a pilot." I love that movie.)
And "Pancho" Barnes, speaking on behalf of her friends like Chuck Yeager, was right on then, and I will wager still is.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 10:29 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 10:29 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: JeffinSac at June 21, 2010 10:47 AM (Oaz+r)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 10:56 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 11:05 AM (4Pleu)
I cannot grasp why people fear China -- they are a third-world nation and will remain one for the forseeable future. Their military is lamentable, their equipment shoddy, and their officer classes corrupt and incompetent. Just like the USSR, in other words.
And being prepared for the Soviet Union was a good outcome, no? Compare the outcomes of Stalin / Captive Nations and Kruschev / Sputnik to Hitler / Rhineland. It *never* hurts to overestimate a foe. It can be fatal to underestimate one.
They are geared up to re-take Taiwan, not to engage the US.
And we want to acquiesce to this, as well as to their veiled threats to the rest of Asia? I suppose you could say the Soviets just wanted Berlin, too.
So can an Army AC-130 Spectre, at far lower cost and less interservice BS.
So long as it stays high enough to not get hit by an RPG. Can they put JDAMS on "Puff The Magic Dragon"?
Not that the Spectre isn't a great plane for it's role, but everything has its limits.
And don't even get me started on the hangar-queen B2. That is the most useless airplane we've ever built. Literally -- it was built for a conflict that never happened
That is how Deterrence works. That, to me, is money well spent.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at June 21, 2010 11:06 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Monty at June 21, 2010 11:28 AM (4Pleu)
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I'm in favor of reinstating spoils and tribute.
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