October 12, 2010
— CAC Although it would be hard to avoid:
Since the direct election of Senators was amended to the Constitution in 1914, if the House flips during the election cycle (ending in November), the SENATE ALWAYS TAGS ALONG. The opposite does not always hold true (see 1980), but this rule of if H then S is a 96 year old election rule. So quit pud-pulling on one and hemming on the other.
We currently have 5 seats looking red with 99% odds:
Arkansas (bye bye Blanche)
North Dakota (Dorgan's old seat)
Indiana (Bayh's old seat)
Pennsylvania (Snarlin' Arlen's seat, though Sestak did the one honorable thing in the campaign and annihilated him early)
Wisconsin (FIN, Feingold)
Thats the easy 5.
Now the next 3 leaning GOP seats:
West Virgina R+5.5
Raese has taken this cakewalk for Manchin into a dark twisted Dalinean nightmare for him. In West Virginia there are two simple political equations right now:
Manchin = popular governor.
Obama = hated President.
Raese took popular Manchin, added "rubberstamping for Obama" and turned him into something worse than Hitler singing Justin Bieber as a Senator.
Manchin has spun and spun and spun his positions, but the armor is off and Raese has a tsunami of cash he has no problem dumping. 3rd time is the charm for Raese and he wins.
(note- yes I did see the PPP poll today showing Manchin voters "waking up". After reading Jensen's constant "wake up the Dems and we still win meme" I take it with a grain of salt as his previous and current poll show movement within the margin of error. I still say Raese is in a good position despite)
Colorado R+5
Despite the recent PPP poll (and it is interesting to note PPP remains the only firm to show Bennet constantly beating Buck ALL CYCLE) showing him down 1, other polling and the donation currents show this race going from a tie to increasingly Buck, albeit by a tighter margin than others.
Illinois R+3
With the macaca moment Alexi "Schultz" Giannoulias just gave us in the Illinois senate race, the scales tip a bit harder to Mark Kirk (who would be Lame Duck seat #42). Kirk has already seen his numbers improve in Rasmussen and PPP gradually as voters have started to make up their minds in a contest of eh verses huh. Kirk also has a considerable money advantage in the last few weeks to remind voters of Ali G's dirty laundry...er... "lack of oversight". (RCP and 538 and ElectionProjection and ElectoralVote shows Kirk winning as well)
We are now at +8.
Now comes the whipped cream on the pudding:
Nevada R+2
Reid has blown $20 million+, defined Angle as a total nut, drove her negatives to his levels, pumped up the None of the Above option, is a sitting Senate Majority leader, and has a 24 year career as Senator.
He is still in the 40s and losing in the aggregate. He is done in one of the closest races in the country.
Washington R+1.5
"Finding ballots" can save you when it is a 500-1000 vote race. A bit harder when the margin spreads out to my projection for Dino, but fraud is something Seattle has made the most of. It is essential conservatives keep their eyes and ears open during Election day and the critical "lolz look what we found" red zone between Nov 2 and certification. Rossi fell behind about a month ago due to Murray's advertising. He has raised $4.4 million however and is starting to unleash that Kraken on Dum-dum. He pulls ahead in a squeeker, backed up all the more by recent polling. (RCP shows Rossi winning now as of 10/12/2010)
As for the seats in waiting (the Democratic "firewall of fail"):
Connecticut- Blummenthal up 5 right now.
Polling shifted hard away from Linda McMahon all last week, but since her ads using Smegma's non-answer on jobs, we have seen at least one showing it shifting back to a tossup (Pulse/Rasmussen released today- McMahon 43% Blumenthal 49%). I think giving him a five point edge may actually be too generous, depending on how this last push by Linda impacts voters.
California (my home state)- Boxer up 3.
The Golden State is notoriously hard to poll in a close election cycle.
Even elections perceived close, like the recall of Davis in 2003, had its polls showing Davis hanging on when he got totally blown out of the water.
very recent polling released out of the state show the race back to the 2-4 point range, and with no on-the-ground enthusiasm here for Boxer, it's where I am pegging her at. A heartbreaker for now, but could very easily end up being a great night for us all on November 2nd if these numbers are "off" or tighten.
Now is the time where I leave you all to faint/naynaynay.
Posted by: CAC at
07:27 AM
| Comments (103)
Post contains 831 words, total size 5 kb.
ew. Another Socialist Democrat who cannot answer the question.
Jan Schakowski(D-ecpetion.) - she's out here.
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 12, 2010 07:32 AM (0fzsA)
It's rained frogs.
Posted by: AllenG at October 12, 2010 07:33 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 07:33 AM (MzvJk)
Posted by: AllenG at October 12, 2010 07:33 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Chris R at October 12, 2010 07:35 AM (AO4qz)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 07:35 AM (LpqRt)
Michael Bennet(D-CO) - left-wing stooge attempting to paint himself as fiscally responsible "businessman" - is running a pack of deceptive ads including one that claims Ken Buck wants to layer a 23% sales tax on everything.
Tons of D-money pouring into this race.
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 12, 2010 07:35 AM (0fzsA)
Posted by: Vice-President Joe Biden at October 12, 2010 07:36 AM (6uiF7)
Posted by: Jon at October 12, 2010 07:36 AM (Xt7UU)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 07:36 AM (L2+HZ)
Posted by: Blue Hen at October 12, 2010 07:37 AM (R2fpr)
Posted by: Chris R at October 12, 2010 11:35 AM (AO4qz)
That's two threads in a row where some jackoff decided to come out of the woodwork and try to start the fight again. Why?
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 12, 2010 07:38 AM (5aa4z)
Posted by: John Galt at October 12, 2010 07:38 AM (F/4zf)
Posted by: pep at October 12, 2010 07:39 AM (3ll0O)
8 - you are right and AoS has debated the situation over and over. She's the candidate. 70 year old Mike Castle lost and Coons (D- Harry's tax-hiking pet) will more than likely win. File it under - We can't win em' all.
I certainly hope the R party can focus and tightening the message in the coming weeks. The D's are fighting hard with lies and deception.... and foreign money!
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 12, 2010 07:39 AM (0fzsA)
Posted by: Chris R at October 12, 2010 07:43 AM (AO4qz)
We already know the Democrats have moved a heavy-hitter into DE to help Coons. At first, I dismissed it, but I'm beginning to wonder if they know something we don't... and that we should find out FAST.
Posted by: AllenG at October 12, 2010 07:43 AM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 07:44 AM (bh8+e)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 12, 2010 07:45 AM (ulpU/)
Since the only person who brought up DE prior to your post was me, and I equated a win there with a rain of frogs, I don't really think anyone in this thread was saying DE is "in play." We're saying strange things happen when you have this kind of tidal shift in the political spectrum.
So, either, you're not being entirely truthful, or you didn't actually read the comment to which you reacted so forcefully.
Pick one.
Posted by: AllenG at October 12, 2010 07:47 AM (8y9MW)
Asked if the prospect of Republican control of one or both houses of Congress concerned him, George Cocksuckers Soros said: “It does, because I think they are pushing the wrong policies, but I’m not in a position to stop it. I don’t believe in standing in the way of an avalanche.”
Posted by: Soothsayer at October 12, 2010 07:47 AM (uFokq)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 07:47 AM (Hu4Fg)
Posted by: Brain Dead 6 Year Old Girl at October 12, 2010 07:47 AM (lvG6K)
And Mike Castle was a fucking douchebag who would've voted with the Dems 50% or more of the time. Tell me all about the victory that wasn't, Champ.
That's just a sad fact, a sad fact many on here knew weeks ago.
Can you tell me next week's lottery numbers? Pretty please?
Maybe the lack of support from "Conservatives" such as yourself is having an influence on the race, too. Ya fucking jackoff.
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 12, 2010 07:47 AM (5aa4z)
Indeed he has. While watching Lie To Me last night, there were 3 Rossi ads attacking Murray in one commercial break, alone. It was a thing of beauty. I didn't watch the game, but I imagine he had it covered well, too.
Posted by: Editor at October 12, 2010 07:50 AM (pUfK9)
Posted by: AndrewsDad at October 12, 2010 07:50 AM (C2//T)
I saw the PPP poll- if you read the post you will see my comments on it.
And bah on RCP for dropping PPP when Ras shows kirk losing by 1.
they also dropped the pulse poll, eh well.
Posted by: CAC at October 12, 2010 07:51 AM (lV4Fs)
Posted by: Monty at October 12, 2010 07:51 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 07:52 AM (KhNei)
Remember Jumpin' Jim Jeffords? I sure as hell do. Now go fuck yourself.
Posted by: Hatchet Five at October 12, 2010 07:52 AM (/lkKn)
Posted by: Phil Smith at October 12, 2010 07:52 AM (n+cpx)
All of you. This has gone way too long. I have my opinion on DE, but I am stifling it. Please do the same. If the other side starts something, whichever one it is, please just let it go. This bickering helps no one, changes no minds, and is just plain tiresome. Save it for after the election.
Posted by: pep at October 12, 2010 07:52 AM (3ll0O)
Posted by: Methos at October 12, 2010 07:53 AM (Ew1k4)
Raese better runs some ads reminding voters that even though Manchin is campaigning as a Republican, Manchin will pony up and vote with the democrats.
Democrats vote with democrats. No matter how many times they promise not to.
Posted by: Lemon Kitten at October 12, 2010 07:53 AM (0fzsA)
Posted by: Olliander at October 12, 2010 07:54 AM (6uiF7)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 07:55 AM (9e8Ti)
The men fire up an air pump and within minutes there stands a towering S-300 anti-aircraft missile launcher. Russia's Defense Ministry is in talks with a private company called Rusbal to develop a range of inflatable decoy armaments they could place in battlefields to deceive the enemy about positions and lure it into attacking cheap replicas with their million-dollar rockets.
Posted by: maverick muse at October 12, 2010 07:55 AM (H+LJc)
I got one for my inflatable sumo wrestler!
Posted by: palin steele (fornicator with pool accessories) at October 12, 2010 07:57 AM (5aa4z)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 07:59 AM (omcBI)
Posted by: Greg at October 12, 2010 07:59 AM (I+R6n)
Posted by: Boobies at October 12, 2010 08:00 AM (2b4AE)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 11:59 AM (omcBI)
I remember right before we went into Iraq hearing that Saddam was bragging about his sophisticated GPS-jamming gear. Said a brass of some sort: "We will be interested in seeing how that performs."
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 12, 2010 08:01 AM (5aa4z)
I hook the air intake to my tiny member!!!! May it grow bigger than 6mm someday!!!!!
Posted by: Charles Johnson at October 12, 2010 08:01 AM (/lkKn)
Posted by: Olliander at October 12, 2010 08:01 AM (6uiF7)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 08:01 AM (OsAaC)
Posted by: ChiTown Jerry at October 12, 2010 08:02 AM (f9c2L)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 08:03 AM (UqSuH)
Posted by: Greg at October 12, 2010 11:59 AM (I+R6n)
Dude, what did we tell you about using a boring name? It's a complete giveaway. Don't expect the check to be in the mail, we apparently need it for Coons.
Posted by: David Axelrod's spontaneous troll management at October 12, 2010 08:05 AM (Ew1k4)
Posted by: Dan at October 12, 2010 08:06 AM (1jzSs)
Posted by: an erection lasting more than four hours at October 12, 2010 08:07 AM (ao9DD)
It's even better than that. They were taken out with GPS-guided ordinance.
Posted by: Hatchet Five at October 12, 2010 08:08 AM (/lkKn)
Gaaaah! Not Boxer, not Boxer!
We have got to get rid of that efffing scourge of evil. Do you realize that California has had that scrunt in congress for 26 years?
Meanwhile, Carly has stayed conservative since the primary. When all the "experts" said she would moderate for the general election.
Say a prayer for Fiorina, folks. And one for those of us way behind enemy lines in California. Not everyone bailed out when the illegal wave poured in.
Posted by: Log Cabin at October 12, 2010 08:09 AM (Y8b3a)
Posted by: kansas at October 12, 2010 08:10 AM (mka2b)
Probably Dickless Durbin. Sheriff Joe would cast the tiebreaking vote for that.
Posted by: Hatchet Five at October 12, 2010 08:10 AM (/lkKn)
Posted by: Phil Smith at October 12, 2010 08:11 AM (n+cpx)
Of course not. Bipartisanship only works in one direction.
Posted by: Hatchet Five at October 12, 2010 08:13 AM (/lkKn)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 08:17 AM (C7OIp)
Posted by: Monty
And we love you too Monty. Were you stationed at Dover AFB?
Posted by: Blue Hen at October 12, 2010 08:19 AM (R2fpr)
Posted by: ChiTown Jerry at October 12, 2010 08:20 AM (f9c2L)
Posted by: Chris R
This here combination of sentences is the one and only reason that I am telling you,as a Delaware Republican who voted for Castle, to go fuck a knothole.
Posted by: Blue Hen at October 12, 2010 08:22 AM (R2fpr)
Posted by: Rocks at October 12, 2010 08:23 AM (Q1lie)
Posted by: Chris R
Who the fuck are you to allow anything?
Posted by: Rocks at October 12, 2010 08:24 AM (Q1lie)
Posted by: ChiTown Jerry at October 12, 2010 12:20 PM (f9c2L)
I don't think they can do that with a "slight" majority. What ever the rule was voted "in" with, it takes that many to vote it "out". (at least that is my understanding)
Posted by: Vic at October 12, 2010 08:24 AM (/jbAw)
Posted by: Rocks at October 12, 2010 08:27 AM (Q1lie)
LOL, the last time I looked he had an ACU rating of 17. That is why I can not understand all these calls for him to switch to Republican.
He would last right up until the next election when that R after his name would kill him in CT regardless of the actual record.
Posted by: Vic at October 12, 2010 08:30 AM (/jbAw)
Linda McMahon may not win her Senate race, but she has completely earned my professional respect as a candidate. She has run a flawless race, with sharp smart ads and good debate performances.
Another big upset that isn't on the radar for many right now: Foley is going to beat Malloy and retain the CT-Gov seat. It may help pull McMahon close to Blumenthal.
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 12, 2010 08:31 AM (NjYDy)
Posted by: cali grump at October 12, 2010 08:37 AM (hL0k8)
Posted by: Jean at October 12, 2010 08:47 AM (L2+HZ)
Posted by: SergeantJack at October 12, 2010 08:52 AM (fTGYN)
Durbin wants that position so badly he can taste it -- work hard? Bah, he'll have his staff work hard. Durbin is the male, Midwest version of Nan. He'll likely get it.
I am worried: IL isn't sewn up. Chicagoland may be starting to revert to their customary voting habits -- and that's the living; the dead never change. If Metro Chi and EStL go heavily blue (and there are indications that they are drifting back onto the reservation), then the governorship and the senate will go to the Dems...and the Dem reps in a lot of the contested districts may just squeak it out. The unions will lean the same way as the two metros. The rest of the state just can't outvote these *uckers.
The GOP has ran a decent campaign here this year -- but I don't know if it's enough.
Posted by: unknown jane at October 12, 2010 08:55 AM (5/yRG)
I think you just described Dick Durbin. And Reid was the number 2 who got promoted when Tom Daschel was told by his voters to go spend more time with the family.
Posted by: Mallamutt at October 12, 2010 12:26 PM (OWjjx)
I think normally that would be true but nobody likes Durbin. He's always been a royal dick. I would expect them to probably pick a woman to make history again. The one thing Durbin has going for him is he isn't up in 2012 for election so they very well might pick him. Especially if it's 50-50 or 51-49 and Reid is gone as no one will want to be leader when they lose it in 2012.
Posted by: Rocks at October 12, 2010 08:56 AM (Q1lie)
Posted by: SergeantJack
if flipping this blue state is the lynchpin for your happiness, then you have a crap load of problems, and her campaign is way down the list.
Posted by: Blue Hen at October 12, 2010 08:58 AM (R2fpr)
But remember how badly African Americans have fared under the Obama administration.. extremely high unemployment.. where is the motivation?
And blue collar white Dems in the city and surrounding burbs are not all that happy either.
IF those demographics are depressed at the polls and IF independents can be motivated enough and IF downstate can come out in force, it is possible. But, to me, it has been a long shot (moreso than the polls indicate) from the beginning.
Posted by: ChiTown Jerry at October 12, 2010 09:02 AM (f9c2L)
96 Never, ever, underestimate the particular trait of Chitown metro voters to vote against whoever appears to be paying attention to the rest of the state and not just Chicago.
Tribalism beats all in the LOL -- the Chi has operated from that standpoint forever (or so it seems); the rest of the state is starting to catch on and do the same thing.
The place will eventually wind up like a statewide Detroit...with an adapted script of Lord of the Flies.
Posted by: unknown jane at October 12, 2010 09:15 AM (5/yRG)
Posted by: Jose the Illegal at October 12, 2010 09:19 AM (tE8FB)
Posted by: ChicagoJedi at October 12, 2010 09:22 AM (WZFkG)
Monday, October 11th, 2010
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is the featured speaker at Friday nightÂ’s Commonwealth Club event in San Francisco. And Bill, her husband and former president, will headline a rally on Friday and Sunday rally with gubernatorial candidate and Attorney Jerry Brown. The Friday event is at UCLA, followed by a San Jose State University rally on Sunday.
In a flyer distributed on campus, the organizers say folks who participate in a pre-rally phone banking event will receive preferred access to the rally.
So, the Democrats are reduced to throwing in their big guns late in the game to hold -- California?
And only before a college crowd no less. Afraid to face the people, much?
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at October 12, 2010 09:35 AM (OIw0R)
Obama head to California for Boxer
October 11, 2010
Other Democrats may be keeping President Obama at armÂ’s length, but that is not the case for Barbara Boxer, who announced Monday evening that the commander-in-chief will head west to campaign with her Oct. 22 in the final stretch of her race against Carly Fiorina.
I sense fear in this One...
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at October 12, 2010 09:37 AM (OIw0R)
Posted by: ChiTown Jerry at October 12, 2010 12:20 PM (f9c2L)
A vote to change the rules for filibuster may itself be subjected to a filibuster. This proposed rule change ain't happening.
Posted by: ya2daup at October 12, 2010 09:51 AM (Wqfrr)
Posted by: Optimizer at October 12, 2010 10:18 AM (2lTU+)
@70
Gaaaah! Not Boxer, not Boxer!
We have got to get rid of that efffing scourge of evil. Do you realize that California has had that scrunt in congress for 26 years?
Meanwhile, Carly has stayed conservative since the primary. When all the "experts" said she would moderate for the general election.
Say a prayer for Fiorina, folks. And one for those of us way behind enemy lines in California. Not everyone bailed out when the illegal wave poured in.
Another inmate of the People's Republic checking in, groaning under the Communist lash, and I fully agree. Beelzebub before Boxer!
Posted by: Jay Guevara at October 12, 2010 10:49 AM (SQjBW)
Bingo. I love Liebs on foreign policy but the real hilarity of Kos's Ned Lamont fixation (besides the embarrassingly awkward commercial) was that Lieberman is a solid blue Dem on every single other issue. It just goes to show how bad Bush Derangement Syndrome is.
Somewhat related: Reason magazine is running ads on MSNBC, because they think their anti-war creds will work with both of Olbermann's viewers even though they're anti-tax and anti-nanny state. I think that's going to be the least effective ad spend since the anti-Bachmann ads started appearing on the HQ.
Posted by: Ian S. at October 12, 2010 11:08 AM (p05LM)
I'll go for the $250,000 to make it jello, if you morons will come down here and get the shit out of the pool.
Strawberry or Cherry?
Posted by: Kemp at October 12, 2010 12:38 PM (AQxTm)
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Posted by: Olliander at October 12, 2010 07:29 AM (6uiF7)