April 21, 2010

Poll: Crist Isn't Doing Too Well With Democrats or Independents, Either
— Ace

Damned either way?

It's his fall with Republicans that gets all the attention, but Charlie Crist's poll numbers have declined almost as badly with Democrats and independents over the last year as they have within his own party. And that makes me doubt he would be successful in an independent Senate bid even if he did decide to make a run for it.

Comparing Quinnipiac's April 2009 poll to its poll this month Crist's approval rating has dropped 19 points with Republicans, from 68% to 49%. But it's also dropped by 18 points with independents from 68% to 50% and by 14 points with Democrats from 66% to 52%.

Right now Crist gets 30% of the Republican vote and 27% of the Democratic vote if he runs as an independent. But it's important to keep in mind that 61% of Democrats don't know enough about Kendrick Meek to have formed an opinion of him yet- are Democrats who like Crist and don't know Meek today still going to vote for Crist this fall once they know Meek? Given the downward trend in his poll numbers among Democrats it seems like he would lose a lot of that support.

PPP says it's too early to write him off but his victory is "unlikely."

Someone wrote Crist's best polling day will be the day before he announces his switch. There's just no way to build a narrative that he's doing this "out of principle." Oh, he'll try that, but it's pretty obvious that no principle compelled him to leave the GOP when he was leading in party polls. It's only after the party rejects him that his independence and integrity compel him to reject the party in return.

Crist's switch will only reinforce the distaste voters have for him. It seems now he has no convictions or interesting political thinking, and is willing to do or say anything to goose his poll numbers a bit. Suddenly deciding he has to change parties -- and recast his positions to appeal to a different voter profile -- is going to turn that apprehension about him up to 11.

Posted by: Ace at 11:30 AM | Comments (50)
Post contains 376 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Oh Dip!

Posted by: Mjim at April 21, 2010 11:32 AM (V8B//)

2
He could save his career and get behind Rubio.  Nah - that would be too self-less.


Posted by: Lemon Kitten at April 21, 2010 11:33 AM (0fzsA)

3 Christ is Toast--or Toasted, if you prefer.   The only way for him to have a future in politics is to drop all the BS, support Rubio, and run against DumbAss Nelson in two years.

He has ten days to make up his mind..........

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at April 21, 2010 11:34 AM (JrRME)

4 The most important thing isn't winning, it's fucking over conservatives.

Posted by: David Frum at April 21, 2010 11:35 AM (FkKjr)

5 Good Morning Ace!

Posted by: Ben at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (wuv1c)

6 But I'm that type of moderate who appeals to everyone! Everyone!

Not like Rubio, who only appeals to wing nuts and teabaggers.


Posted by: Charlie Crist at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (IhQuA)

7 I don't think Crist will get many votes from the Republicans or the independents that normally vote republican. This other guy though may be a different story. 

Posted by: Vic at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (QrA9E)

8

I don't know, I think it's 50-50 on who it helps or hurts. I think republicans will vote republican and not risk letting a dem get it and Christ may get some dems to vote for him that wouldn't vote for Rubio but would vote for meek if it was a 2 person race.

On the other hand it could split the repubs and hand it to meek.

Posted by: robtr at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (fwSHf)

9 Crist is an idiot. He should run  against Bill Nelson in 2012.

Posted by: Ben at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (wuv1c)

10 PPP says it's too early to write him off but his victory is "unlikely."

The question is, does he hate Rubio and conservatives enough to not give a shit and just play spoiler.

Bill Nelson's seat is up in 2012. Maybe the GOP can calm him down and get him to stay in the party and give it a shot then.

There's no guarantees he'd get the nod then or win the general but it might be enough hope to keep him from blowing up his career in the next 10 days.


Posted by: DrewM. at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (9B5OK)

11
Crist will be a non-factor in this race. He won't even be able to raise cash for ads in September and October.

Posted by: Atom Ant at April 21, 2010 11:37 AM (uFokq)

12 If only you wing-nut teabaggers would get in line and support big government, conservatives moderate republicans democrats independents, we wouldn't have to get democrats elected all the time.

Posted by: Charlie Crist at April 21, 2010 11:37 AM (IhQuA)

13 David Frum is not pleased, not pleased on bit.

Posted by: Ben at April 21, 2010 11:38 AM (wuv1c)

14 It seems so obvious that supporting Rubio and running against Nelson would be the smart thing to do. No way in hell Crist will do that.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at April 21, 2010 11:38 AM (xZbh/)

15

I looked at his website and it doesn't mention the word "Republican" once. Check it out ate Charliecristdotcom.

 

he does have the phrase "common sense conservative" on there quite a bit.

Posted by: Ben at April 21, 2010 11:39 AM (wuv1c)

16 News Story:

White Racist Republicans Attempt To Torpedo Rising Latino Star

Posted by: the peanut gallery at April 21, 2010 11:39 AM (NurK6)

17

It seems so obvious that supporting Rubio and running against Nelson would be the smart thing to do. No way in hell Crist will do that.

I think that is what he will end up doing. I read that he is very ambitious, if he ran as an indie and loses, he will never have another job in elected office again.

He needs to look at the long term. Sure it's two years away, but why not wait for the next senate seat?

Posted by: Ben at April 21, 2010 11:40 AM (wuv1c)

18

Crist's switch will only reinforce the distaste voters have for him.

Exactly.

Posted by: conscious, but randomly incoherent at April 21, 2010 11:41 AM (YVZlY)

19


HELL HATH NO FURY LIKE A WOMAN (or bitch of a "man") SCORNED!

Crist is going to stay in just to see Rubio go down in flames (since he couldn't get Rubio to go down any other way)

Posted by: s'moron at April 21, 2010 11:42 AM (UaxA0)

20 The main problem he has if he switches is that he has been on tv 4 or 5 times saying he will be running as a republican so both Rubio and Meek are going to burn him with his own words. I don't know how he gets around that .

Posted by: robtr at April 21, 2010 11:43 AM (fwSHf)

21

Crist's switch will only reinforce the distaste voters have for him.

he tastes like burning.

Posted by: Ben at April 21, 2010 11:43 AM (wuv1c)

22 My precious! Don't take my precious!

Posted by: Charlie Crist, all bug-eyed and sweaty at April 21, 2010 11:43 AM (w41GQ)

23 Jesus. Shut up, Crist, you freak.

Posted by: Gollum at April 21, 2010 11:44 AM (w41GQ)

24 Sounds like the only smart move for Crist is to bow out.

Probably not going to do it, though.

Posted by: looking closely at April 21, 2010 11:46 AM (6Q9g2)

25 O/T The Kenyan says he's not going to return the Goldman Sach campaign money.

He probably can't return it, The Wookie already spent that on depilatories

Posted by: Dastardly Dan at April 21, 2010 11:48 AM (9id2T)

26

O/T The Kenyan says he's not going to return the Goldman Sach campaign money.

Goldman Sachs sent out a memo to investors 2 days ago saying that the new financial regs will be helpful to their profitability. He is paying them back he damn sure isn't going to help them for nothing.

Posted by: robtr at April 21, 2010 11:50 AM (fwSHf)

27 That Crist has a positive approval rating with Democrats should tell you everything right there.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at April 21, 2010 11:51 AM (yuHqs)

28 Yes. I don't think this libertarian will hurt much either. Plus, all the FL GOP needs to do is have a major donor show Charlie some cash, say "Cash if you run against Nelson in 2012, no cash otherwise."

Posted by: joncelli at April 21, 2010 11:52 AM (RD7QR)

29

What is it that makes an otherwise sane man lose his mind?

Power. The kind that corrupts.

Crist's actions show him to be power-mad. He's in it for him, not for the people of Florida, not for America, but for him. He wants a victory. He doesn't want to counter The Vapid One's© agenda. He wants power anyway he can get it.

He's the exact type of guy we conservatives are trying to purge from Washington.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at April 21, 2010 11:53 AM (i3AsK)

30 Bill Nelson's seat is up in 2012. Maybe the GOP can calm him down and get him to stay in the party and give it a shot then.

I hope they can. And then I hope they chop his knees out from under him in '12 and get Jeb Bush in that race instead.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at April 21, 2010 11:53 AM (yuHqs)

31 Sure it's two years away, but why not wait for the next senate seat?

Yeah, but I think Crist has really screwed the pooch with activist conservatives and voters who pay attention.  He'd have to do a lot of campaigning for Rubio to get his stock back up.  Because in 2012, there'll be another primary, the FL GOP won't clear the field for him and it's possible the Republican candidate will be a very popular Jeb Bush.

The only promise Crist could hope for is that Jeb will dither on running long enough to keep any other serious contender from running.

Posted by: AmishDude at April 21, 2010 12:00 PM (T0NGe)

32

He's the exact type of guy we conservatives are trying to purge from Washington.

Posted by: BackwardsBoy at April 21, 2010 03:53 PM (i3AsK)


How positively Stalinesque of you!

Posted by: Chrissy "Tingles" Matthews at April 21, 2010 12:02 PM (JPEqm)

33 The country is looking for leadership. Furthermore, it's leaning towards conservative leadership right now due to the devastation being created by the Marxist in Chief. Crist moving Left and chasing voters rather than leading them will not end well.

He's burnt-orange toast. His timing is poor and has chosen... unwisely.

Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at April 21, 2010 12:05 PM (swuwV)

34 The country is looking for leadership. ACTIVATE THE RON PAUL SIGNAL!!! /no, please don't do that

Posted by: Empire of Jeff at April 21, 2010 12:10 PM (xGIqT)

35 Serrano abandoned me when he sold out to the Man's Endowment for the Arts.

Posted by: Toast Christ at April 21, 2010 12:10 PM (x7Ao8)

36 It is far past time to eject these idiots who think they are some sort of pivotal point in history.   This country needs another Charlie Crist like it needs another Arlen Specter.

Posted by: Terry at April 21, 2010 12:10 PM (Vui52)

37 Crist is done no matter what.  Sure, the party elders will tell him it's his turn in '12.  But this bait and switch is something people will remember, and not in a good way.  The party activists in particular now know what a self-absorbed little weasel he is.  Buh bye. 

Posted by: pep at April 21, 2010 12:15 PM (0K3p3)

38 ACTIVATE THE RON PAUL SIGNAL!!!

We did.. Paul couldn't see it because he's currently back in 1798.

Posted by: StuckOnStupid at April 21, 2010 12:20 PM (e8T35)

39 And, IIRC, Crist and Jeb were tight at one time.

NTTAWWT

Posted by: AmishDude at April 21, 2010 12:53 PM (T0NGe)

40 Or he could move to (blank, well I don't know, DC? New York?) and try to screw conservative side of Republicans another way.

Posted by: always right at April 21, 2010 01:07 PM (UzjcV)

41 This whole thing is Crist lashing out against the people who torpedoed him.  Crist was incredibly popular when he was elected and he didn't do a bad job as gov.  After the Maobama election, he was willing to compromise to get alot of the stimulus money - he probably figured there would be more of a backlash to not taking the money or getting alot less than other states.  He miscalculated.  And the hug.  I suspect somewhere in that mansion he lives in, he has uttered the following "it was just a damn hug.  It didn't mean anything.  I was just being friendly to the new president."  Alot of these center tacking conservatives did not realize how far left Maobama really would go.

Posted by: Matt at April 21, 2010 01:32 PM (MHK3Q)

42

As much a bitch as Crist is, the problem isn't just him alone.  The establishment GOP types are like that--they hate conservative Republicans who challenge them.  In all probability, the Cornyns, McCains, et al, egged Crist on against Rubio, telling Crist he was a traitor to the party, and just weren't expecting Crist to take it this far.

Just FYI, I don't believe Crist expects to win as an independent.  He's trying to get Meek to win, as vengeance against Rubio.

Posted by: Ken at April 21, 2010 01:43 PM (EawMs)

43 Sad part is, if he'd bow out gracefully and spend the next few years rehabbing his rep as a conservative, Ben Nelson's seat opens up in the not too distant future. 

Posted by: Matt at April 21, 2010 01:50 PM (MHK3Q)

44

44:  Fuck that.  Crist has shown what he's all about.  I wouldn't vote for him for dogcatcher against Cindy Sheehan.  Well, OK, I'm not from FL anyway, but you get my point.

Think about it:  this degenerate was willing to destroy the education of all Floridian kids just to get back at one man, Marco Rubio.  Many of these kids may become failures and criminals because the voters didn't breastfeed the Senate seat to Crist. 

Posted by: Ken at April 21, 2010 01:56 PM (EawMs)

45 ... and he isn't doing too well with illegal aliens either. That could cost him the election.

Posted by: Natasha & Boris at April 21, 2010 03:59 PM (ITzbJ)

46 Charlie Crist = Orange Specter

Posted by: liberals **** at April 21, 2010 06:57 PM (tK42Y)

47 "And, IIRC, Crist and Jeb were tight at one time."

Meh, not really.  Marco is Jeb's protege, and Jeb's base in Florida has always been with the Cubans in Miami, not any other part of the state GOP.  Crist is a Tampa Bay guy.  If Crist actually does the independent run, Jeb will endorse Marco the same day and will make Crist persona non grata with just about everyone who might conceivably be even thinking about still supporting him.

"In all probability, the Cornyns, McCains, et al, egged Crist on against Rubio, telling Crist he was a traitor to the party, and just weren't expecting Crist to take it this far."

There's that to an extent, but absolutely nobody truly understands why the fuck he decided to run for the Senate seat now anyway.  He could have very easily cruised to a second term as Governor.

Posted by: Dave J. at April 21, 2010 07:02 PM (DCQ0q)

48 Seems to me that Crist would be smart to drop out and endorse Rubio then start planning for a 2102 run against Nelson. The RNC and NRSC would be grateful, as would Rubio, giving him a strong shot at the primary in 2012. A 3 way race between Crist, Rubio, and Meek looks like a craps shoot and even if Crist wins, he'd be dead meat to the Republicans and distrusted by the Democrats in 2018. Lieberman pulled this off because of decades in the senate club, something Crist lacks.

Posted by: jbarntt at April 21, 2010 07:13 PM (Qx4db)

49 There's that to an extent, but absolutely nobody truly understands why the fuck he decided to run for the Senate seat now anyway.

Like bank robbers say, because that's where the money is. Plus, more travel, so he can leave the beard at home. I think Crist made a deal with Obama.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at April 21, 2010 07:15 PM (mHQ7T)

Posted by: penis büyütücü at December 11, 2010 03:13 PM (wVs6u)

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