April 21, 2010
— Ace Damned either way?
It's his fall with Republicans that gets all the attention, but Charlie Crist's poll numbers have declined almost as badly with Democrats and independents over the last year as they have within his own party. And that makes me doubt he would be successful in an independent Senate bid even if he did decide to make a run for it.Comparing Quinnipiac's April 2009 poll to its poll this month Crist's approval rating has dropped 19 points with Republicans, from 68% to 49%. But it's also dropped by 18 points with independents from 68% to 50% and by 14 points with Democrats from 66% to 52%.
Right now Crist gets 30% of the Republican vote and 27% of the Democratic vote if he runs as an independent. But it's important to keep in mind that 61% of Democrats don't know enough about Kendrick Meek to have formed an opinion of him yet- are Democrats who like Crist and don't know Meek today still going to vote for Crist this fall once they know Meek? Given the downward trend in his poll numbers among Democrats it seems like he would lose a lot of that support.
PPP says it's too early to write him off but his victory is "unlikely."
Someone wrote Crist's best polling day will be the day before he announces his switch. There's just no way to build a narrative that he's doing this "out of principle." Oh, he'll try that, but it's pretty obvious that no principle compelled him to leave the GOP when he was leading in party polls. It's only after the party rejects him that his independence and integrity compel him to reject the party in return.
Crist's switch will only reinforce the distaste voters have for him. It seems now he has no convictions or interesting political thinking, and is willing to do or say anything to goose his poll numbers a bit. Suddenly deciding he has to change parties -- and recast his positions to appeal to a different voter profile -- is going to turn that apprehension about him up to 11.
Posted by: Ace at
11:30 AM
| Comments (50)
Post contains 376 words, total size 2 kb.
He has ten days to make up his mind..........
Posted by: SantaRosaStan at April 21, 2010 11:34 AM (JrRME)
Posted by: David Frum at April 21, 2010 11:35 AM (FkKjr)
Not like Rubio, who only appeals to wing nuts and teabaggers.
Posted by: Charlie Crist at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (IhQuA)
Posted by: Vic at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (QrA9E)
I don't know, I think it's 50-50 on who it helps or hurts. I think republicans will vote republican and not risk letting a dem get it and Christ may get some dems to vote for him that wouldn't vote for Rubio but would vote for meek if it was a 2 person race.
On the other hand it could split the repubs and hand it to meek.
Posted by: robtr at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (fwSHf)
Posted by: Ben at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (wuv1c)
The question is, does he hate Rubio and conservatives enough to not give a shit and just play spoiler.
Bill Nelson's seat is up in 2012. Maybe the GOP can calm him down and get him to stay in the party and give it a shot then.
There's no guarantees he'd get the nod then or win the general but it might be enough hope to keep him from blowing up his career in the next 10 days.
Posted by: DrewM. at April 21, 2010 11:36 AM (9B5OK)
Crist will be a non-factor in this race. He won't even be able to raise cash for ads in September and October.
Posted by: Atom Ant at April 21, 2010 11:37 AM (uFokq)
Posted by: Charlie Crist at April 21, 2010 11:37 AM (IhQuA)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at April 21, 2010 11:38 AM (xZbh/)
I looked at his website and it doesn't mention the word "Republican" once. Check it out ate Charliecristdotcom.
he does have the phrase "common sense conservative" on there quite a bit.
Posted by: Ben at April 21, 2010 11:39 AM (wuv1c)
It seems so obvious that supporting Rubio and running against Nelson would be the smart thing to do. No way in hell Crist will do that.
I think that is what he will end up doing. I read that he is very ambitious, if he ran as an indie and loses, he will never have another job in elected office again.
He needs to look at the long term. Sure it's two years away, but why not wait for the next senate seat?
Posted by: Ben at April 21, 2010 11:40 AM (wuv1c)
HELL HATH NO FURY LIKE A WOMAN (or bitch of a "man") SCORNED!
Crist is going to stay in just to see Rubio go down in flames (since he couldn't get Rubio to go down any other way)
Posted by: s'moron at April 21, 2010 11:42 AM (UaxA0)
Posted by: robtr at April 21, 2010 11:43 AM (fwSHf)
Posted by: Charlie Crist, all bug-eyed and sweaty at April 21, 2010 11:43 AM (w41GQ)
He probably can't return it, The Wookie already spent that on depilatories
Posted by: Dastardly Dan at April 21, 2010 11:48 AM (9id2T)
O/T The Kenyan says he's not going to return the Goldman Sach campaign money.
Goldman Sachs sent out a memo to investors 2 days ago saying that the new financial regs will be helpful to their profitability. He is paying them back he damn sure isn't going to help them for nothing.
Posted by: robtr at April 21, 2010 11:50 AM (fwSHf)
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at April 21, 2010 11:51 AM (yuHqs)
Posted by: joncelli at April 21, 2010 11:52 AM (RD7QR)
What is it that makes an otherwise sane man lose his mind?
Power. The kind that corrupts.
Crist's actions show him to be power-mad. He's in it for him, not for the people of Florida, not for America, but for him. He wants a victory. He doesn't want to counter The Vapid One's© agenda. He wants power anyway he can get it.
He's the exact type of guy we conservatives are trying to purge from Washington.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at April 21, 2010 11:53 AM (i3AsK)
I hope they can. And then I hope they chop his knees out from under him in '12 and get Jeb Bush in that race instead.
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at April 21, 2010 11:53 AM (yuHqs)
Yeah, but I think Crist has really screwed the pooch with activist conservatives and voters who pay attention. He'd have to do a lot of campaigning for Rubio to get his stock back up. Because in 2012, there'll be another primary, the FL GOP won't clear the field for him and it's possible the Republican candidate will be a very popular Jeb Bush.
The only promise Crist could hope for is that Jeb will dither on running long enough to keep any other serious contender from running.
Posted by: AmishDude at April 21, 2010 12:00 PM (T0NGe)
He's the exact type of guy we conservatives are trying to purge from Washington.
Posted by: BackwardsBoy at April 21, 2010 03:53 PM (i3AsK)
How positively Stalinesque of you!
Posted by: Chrissy "Tingles" Matthews at April 21, 2010 12:02 PM (JPEqm)
He's burnt-orange toast. His timing is poor and has chosen... unwisely.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at April 21, 2010 12:05 PM (swuwV)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at April 21, 2010 12:10 PM (xGIqT)
Posted by: Toast Christ at April 21, 2010 12:10 PM (x7Ao8)
Posted by: Terry at April 21, 2010 12:10 PM (Vui52)
Posted by: pep at April 21, 2010 12:15 PM (0K3p3)
We did.. Paul couldn't see it because he's currently back in 1798.
Posted by: StuckOnStupid at April 21, 2010 12:20 PM (e8T35)
Posted by: always right at April 21, 2010 01:07 PM (UzjcV)
Posted by: Matt at April 21, 2010 01:32 PM (MHK3Q)
As much a bitch as Crist is, the problem isn't just him alone. The establishment GOP types are like that--they hate conservative Republicans who challenge them. In all probability, the Cornyns, McCains, et al, egged Crist on against Rubio, telling Crist he was a traitor to the party, and just weren't expecting Crist to take it this far.
Just FYI, I don't believe Crist expects to win as an independent. He's trying to get Meek to win, as vengeance against Rubio.
Posted by: Ken at April 21, 2010 01:43 PM (EawMs)
Posted by: Matt at April 21, 2010 01:50 PM (MHK3Q)
44: Fuck that. Crist has shown what he's all about. I wouldn't vote for him for dogcatcher against Cindy Sheehan. Well, OK, I'm not from FL anyway, but you get my point.
Think about it: this degenerate was willing to destroy the education of all Floridian kids just to get back at one man, Marco Rubio. Many of these kids may become failures and criminals because the voters didn't breastfeed the Senate seat to Crist.
Posted by: Ken at April 21, 2010 01:56 PM (EawMs)
Posted by: Natasha & Boris at April 21, 2010 03:59 PM (ITzbJ)
Meh, not really. Marco is Jeb's protege, and Jeb's base in Florida has always been with the Cubans in Miami, not any other part of the state GOP. Crist is a Tampa Bay guy. If Crist actually does the independent run, Jeb will endorse Marco the same day and will make Crist persona non grata with just about everyone who might conceivably be even thinking about still supporting him.
"In all probability, the Cornyns, McCains, et al, egged Crist on against Rubio, telling Crist he was a traitor to the party, and just weren't expecting Crist to take it this far."
There's that to an extent, but absolutely nobody truly understands why the fuck he decided to run for the Senate seat now anyway. He could have very easily cruised to a second term as Governor.
Posted by: Dave J. at April 21, 2010 07:02 PM (DCQ0q)
Posted by: jbarntt at April 21, 2010 07:13 PM (Qx4db)
Like bank robbers say, because that's where the money is. Plus, more travel, so he can leave the beard at home. I think Crist made a deal with Obama.
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at April 21, 2010 07:15 PM (mHQ7T)
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Posted by: Mjim at April 21, 2010 11:32 AM (V8B//)