June 07, 2010
— Ace Just barely -- 42-39% -- but 39% is not where an incumbent wants to be.
Before you say, "Well, if he's up among registered voters, he must really be up with likely voters!" -- that's actually not the case here. The typical pattern is reversed:
Murray still retains her overall edge among likely voters, those who voted in the 2006 mid-term election. Forty six percent of them said they would vote for the three-term Democratic incumbent, compared to 40 percent for Rossi. And the combined results of all 1,695 registered voters polled during four weeks in May showed Murray edging out Rossi 42 percent to 40 percent.
I think -- but don't know -- that what's gone on here is this: There was polling over four weeks' time, with around 450 people interviewed each poll. The last group interviewed, the most recent, went for Dino Rossi, due to recent publicity/changing opinions. Overall, they still went a bit for Murray.
As for likelies -- I think the likely voters are taken from the entire four weeks of polling, the good-for-Rossi last poll and the bad-for-Rossi earlier polls.
Assuming this isn't just a glitch, but represents a real trend, then it should be the case, as expected, that the next poll of likely voters puts Rossi ahead.
Thanks to Jenjhis.
Posted by: Ace at
05:37 PM
| Comments (18)
Post contains 236 words, total size 2 kb.
I boinked Patty Murray, and figured honor should compel me no longer to hold that tidbit back.
Posted by: William Folks at June 07, 2010 05:40 PM (Mmw0q)
Posted by: jcjimi at June 07, 2010 05:42 PM (I7L+g)
Posted by: Josh Baskin at June 07, 2010 05:46 PM (mdXLn)
Don't worry Barb; I imagine a bunch of toothless inbred Southerners displaced by the oil spill are going to flock up to WA and screw this one up for you.
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at June 07, 2010 05:47 PM (HNAAi)
Posted by: Mark in Spokane at June 07, 2010 05:54 PM (UaVQh)
Posted by: some wench at June 07, 2010 05:56 PM (uJBct)
Clint Didier is the Tea Party/Sarah Palin endorsed republican who is trying to get some traction and funding. He's got a big name, developer Kemper Freeman, as finance chair. Didier was to appear on palinradio.com today but I missed it. Anyway, he intrigues me more that Rossi, whom I view as a favorite loser. The establishment is what got us into this mess, and Murray and Rossi are part of it.
I'd like to see this race be about character and corruption, for the lack of the former leads directly to the ladder. It needs to be about debt, jobs, common sense and other real world experiences like making payroll, paying bills, growing an enterprise, leadership, knowing right from wrong and being strong enough to do something about it. And IÂ’ll trust a farmer over a professional politician any day.
Palin vs. Didier checklist:
- From a small town? Check! Eltopia has 807 people, or 10,000 less than Wasilla, with a density of 9 people per square mile. Wasilla: 467 people/mile.
- Strong work ethic? Perseverance and determination? Check!
- People tell you that you have no chance? Check!
- The opponent has a war chest and you have grassroots support? Check!
- Won a state championship? Check! (Plus two time Super Bowl champ and coaching two state championships)
- Thinks sports helped define them? Check!
- Wants to bring responsibility and accountability back into the US government? Check!
- Anti-establishment candidate? Check!
- Start with no name recognition? Check!
- Spent time fishing or farming? Check!
- Thinks we have to “clean the crap out” of D.C.? Check!
- Wants to limit government? Thinks that as government grows, liberty fades? Check!
- Went to a small, non-Ivy league school? Check!
- Feels children and grandchildrenÂ’s future is at stake? Check!
- Running against the republican favorite? Check!
- Wants to honor the constitution? Check!
- Is against raising taxes? Check!
- Wants to get America back to work with private sector jobs? Check!
- Believes in American exceptionalism? Check!
- Believes in common sense things like you canÂ’t spend your way into prosperity? Check!
- Member of the NRA? Pro life? Support of traditional marriage? Check!
Gee, you think any of this is why Palin endorsed Didier?
Posted by: Pike Place Pete at June 07, 2010 05:56 PM (MzTRc)
Posted by: leftcoastrighty at June 07, 2010 06:24 PM (J6r7C)
Posted by: Greg Q at June 07, 2010 06:33 PM (Fw98c)
I find myself searching amongst the many candidates for a glimmer of libertarian or conservative thought, but find nothing but reflexive leftism across the smorgasbord of elected positions I must decide. I have to pick the best of the least appealing, and I don't even live there, and haven't for at least twelve years. But I still hold out hope, beyond hope.
Posted by: Jeff Weimer at June 07, 2010 06:54 PM (1Mn8Z)
Posted by: AndrewsDad at June 07, 2010 07:57 PM (QQztO)
We in Washington watched Cantwell steal an election against Slade Gorton and Gregoire steal an election against Rossi. I hope that Rossi's organization is doing everything they can to prevent it happening again. State politics west of the Cascades are tinged with the mold that passes for verdigris that you get when Chicago-style politics meets the "greens" who in habit the King County Elections office.
Posted by: Brookes at June 07, 2010 08:39 PM (P3Gnv)
Posted by: gonzo at June 07, 2010 11:49 PM (Snc2F)
Posted by: Garth Algar at June 08, 2010 11:45 AM (hj/po)
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Posted by: Maria Cantwell at June 07, 2010 05:40 PM (Mmw0q)