January 19, 2010
— Ace Old news, but I hear Hot Air is loading slow, so let me steal some stuff.
The weather isn't as bad as thought -- and turnout is high.
Which might favor Coakley... but I don't know...
[Democratic] outreach workers in and around Boston have been stunned by the number of Democrats and Obama supporters who are waving them off, saying theyÂ’ll vote for Scott Brown.
I predicted at least a 25% Democratic crossover -- and I may have to revise that.
Democrats have a 3:1 advantage over Republicans in Massachusett[e]s. If 25% of Democrats crossover, that reduces the advantage to 2.25 : 1.75 -- still a gap, but independents are breaking hard for Brown.
What will Democratic turnout be? Well, those voting for Brown will have higher turnout rates.
Democrats did not turn out much to save Corzine or that idiot in Virginia. Deeds. Whatever. So there is some hope there.
But, those races did not directly impact Obama or ObamaCare like this one does.
So I'd say it's in between -- we'll see Obama's troopers coming out in greater numbers than they did in NJ and VA, but we will still not see them turning out anywhere near the levels we'd see if Obama were on the ballot.
I still see the Democratic advantage narrowing, based on turnout, to something like 2.1 - 1.9.
Leaving the race in the hands of "unenrolled" (independent) voters, who are of course breaking for Brown by something like a 25-30 point margin. And they are, we're told, much more likely to vote than in the normal off-off-year election.
I still stick with my previous prediction. Higher turnout doesn't really help Coakley or Obama.
The high turnout will wind up putting an exclamation point on the election -- we didn't just steal this seat stealthily. Everyone voted, everyone knew the stakes, and we still won by a comfortable margin.
But still: Vote.
DSCC polling shows Brown up by 5.
Yes, the internal Coakley campaign poll numbers that have leaked out show a dead even race and perhaps a slight improvement over last week. However, there was more than one internal poll conducted by Democrats[.] A little birdie tells me that the final tracking survey conducted by the Mellman Group for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had Brown ahead by five points.
FWIW, Zogby comes in with a headline-grabbing prediction of a Coakley win -- by less than a point.
Worrisome -- so, like, vote and stuff.
Rep. Peter Wiener says ObamaCare is dead if Brown wins.
There is always the possibility that the House will pass the Senate bill unchanged -- and thus the Senate would not have to re-vote, and Brown could not join a filibuster. But Weiner says the Senate bill is too far from what the House liberals want to be passed into law without changes.
Another problem is the defy-the-will-of-the-people problem. Obviously this will be viewed as yet another cheap tactic to thwart the public's clearly-announced will. How many midnight votes and sneaky maneuvers do they dare?
Finally, if Brown wins, we might not even need Brown, as Landrieu, Nelson, Bayh, and the rest of supposedly "moderate" Democrats in red or reddish states may finally break from their party on this.
Oh, and if Brown wins, Obama vows he'll be a real friggin' crankypants about it.
President Barack Obama plans a combative response if, as White House aides fear, Democrats lose Tuesday’s special Senate election in Massachusetts, close advisers say.“This is not a moment that causes the president or anybody who works for him to express any doubt,” a senior administration official said. “It more reinforces the conviction to fight hard.”…
There won’t be any grand proclamation that “the era of Big Government is over” — the words President Bill Clinton uttered after Republicans won the Congress in the 1990s and he was forced to trim a once-ambitious agenda.
“The response will not be to do incremental things and try to salvage a few seats in the fall,” a presidential adviser said. “The best political route also happens to be the boldest rhetorical route, which is to go out and fight and let the chips fall where they may. We can say, ‘At least we fought for these things, and the Republicans said no.’”
At the link, read how Obama sees himself as the "underdog" against Brown.
Democrats are already blaming Coakley. Fair enough -- she does deserve a lot of blame. However, Democrats are kidding themselves if they think this uprising occurred simply because Coakley was an indifferent campaigner.
Can they imagine any other factor that keeps contributing to these losses?
Posted by: Ace at
09:13 AM
| Comments (83)
Post contains 786 words, total size 5 kb.
At the link, read how Obama sees himself as the "underdog" against Brown.
Brown is the rich guy with the luxurious time-share.
Posted by: Cicero at January 19, 2010 09:16 AM (QKKT0)
Hahahahaha; the spin has started.
Obama staff....he has been succesful in creating a new dialog and atmosphere in Washington.
Posted by: Vic at January 19, 2010 09:17 AM (QrA9E)
Posted by: The Wicked Witch of the Oval Office at January 19, 2010 09:17 AM (NMPxx)
Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.
Posted by: Saul at January 19, 2010 09:18 AM (yUybe)
Finally. Confirmation that representative democracy means nothing to this administration.
Posted by: Waterhouse at January 19, 2010 09:18 AM (YLnnA)
“The response will not be to do incremental things and try to salvage a few seats in the fall,” a presidential adviser said. “The best political route also happens to be the boldest rhetorical route, which is to go out and fight and let the chips fall where they may. We can say, ‘At least we fought for these things, and the Republicans said no.’”
Well.... like we thought in yesterdays thread..... he's going to double down.
End.Only.Chaos.
Posted by: fixerupper at January 19, 2010 09:19 AM (J5Hcw)
Posted by: anonymous irishman at January 19, 2010 09:19 AM (FI/6Z)
Posted by: oLD gUY at January 19, 2010 09:19 AM (P/D33)
If it`s a tight race, it`ll be within the margin of fraud and it`ll go to Coakley.
Get used to the new paradigm.
Posted by: NICK at January 19, 2010 09:20 AM (IJjQW)
Stunning. Quadrupling down on stupid. If having to fight like 300 Spartans in order to help keep Ted Kennedy's own seat is not something that gives teh One pause, then I don't know what to think about Obama. This is not someone I'd want coaching a t-ball team, much less CinC of our armed forces.
Posted by: Intrepid at January 19, 2010 09:20 AM (92zkk)
Posted by: Cheney's Power Mane at January 19, 2010 09:20 AM (qcgPU)
“This is not a moment that causes the president or anybody who works for him to express any doubt,” a senior administration official said.
Translation: Obozo's dogmatic leftism is impervious to experience.
Posted by: Cicero at January 19, 2010 09:21 AM (QKKT0)
Posted by: Crush Liberalism at January 19, 2010 09:22 AM (8X9tr)
Registered Dem turn out doesn't mean Marcia votes. Plenty of Dems voted for Palin. Those people never corssed back. I am just over the border to Mass. and my Dem friends live their. They are all voting for Brown and all are registered dems
Posted by: Joe at January 19, 2010 09:23 AM (0cUgO)
Posted by: oLD gUY at January 19, 2010 09:23 AM (P/D33)
Posted by: ThomasD at January 19, 2010 09:25 AM (21H5U)
Posted by: Craig at January 19, 2010 09:25 AM (iuNyN)
Posted by: dagny at January 19, 2010 09:25 AM (cG9YA)
Sometimes cliches are cliches for a reason
Posted by: the "too clever by half" cliche at January 19, 2010 09:26 AM (yUybe)
Posted by: Guy filling in for the guy who shouts "En Fuego" at January 19, 2010 09:27 AM (vmJ30)
Posted by: someone at January 19, 2010 09:29 AM (njJQD)
Posted by: Bugler at January 19, 2010 09:29 AM (YCVBL)
From Weiner's lips to God's ear. Hehehehehe.
Posted by: huerfano at January 19, 2010 09:29 AM (kJLH9)
No, attempting to hold the center (metaphorically, that is: I mean to hold Democrats together). Apres Coakley, le deluge.
This Brown thing (no matter how it actually goes) is an unmitigated disaster for the Democrats. They can talk about "bad candidate" all they want, if you are in a solid blue district, you are now nervous. No one is safe and they want this thing dead. They can't all get a cushy job at Fannie Mae.
The smartest move for them to make is to write a bill that is a wet dream for the Kos Kids. Full of skittles and rainbows. Maybe even explodes the deficit (they don't care). They send it to the House for all of the good libs to vote on it and rile up their base. If it passes there, they send it to die in the Senate. Everybody's happy. Nelson can vote with the filibuster and hope (vainly) that with the thing dead, he'll be able to get re-elected in Nebraska. Or at least be able to eat a pizza.
That's the smart thing. It's impossible to tell with this crew because they bluff often. Their cry of "ramming speed" may just be for Kos Konsumption while they really plan on using Republicans as Bad Cop.
Posted by: AmishDude at January 19, 2010 09:30 AM (T0NGe)
A Constitutional question on this: Did the Senate take the House bill, modify it and send it back to the House; or, did the Senate create their own bill out of whole cloth and then send it to the House? If it's the latter wouldn't the Senate bill be Un-Constitutional because:
All bills for raising revenue shall originate in the House of Representatives; but the Senate may propose or concur with amendments as on other Bills. (Art. I, Sec. 7, Clause 1).
Where's Gabe et al when we need them?
Posted by: David in San Diego at January 19, 2010 09:30 AM (GF+6V)
Posted by: erp at January 19, 2010 09:30 AM (BDRHK)
Posted by: Watching Mass at January 19, 2010 09:31 AM (6ZPfw)
The line was out the door although people were in and out quickly since there's only one race on the ballot.
Keep a close eye on the absentee allots. There have been a huge number of them requested. If it gets stolen, that's where it will happen.
Posted by: Rich at January 19, 2010 09:32 AM (bH0Os)
I love the smell of desperation.
Posted by: ol_dirty_/b+/tard at January 19, 2010 09:33 AM (IoUF1)
Posted by: Watching Mass at January 19, 2010 09:34 AM (6ZPfw)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at January 19, 2010 09:35 AM (9Cooa)
Posted by: GarandFan at January 19, 2010 09:36 AM (ZQBnQ)
Compared to Marcia/Mabel/Meril Coakley in MA, Creigh ran a brilliant and ingenious strategery campaign.
Does it not count for something?
Posted by: sporadic small arms fire at January 19, 2010 09:37 AM (dP6Ky)
You don't know him like I do.
Posted by: waffles at January 19, 2010 09:37 AM (yUybe)
Watching Mass@32
Rush is reporting there are 116,000 registered dead voters in MA. They're doubtless all Coakley supporters.
Posted by: Jane D'oh! at January 19, 2010 09:38 AM (UOM48)
Don't forget about Joe Sr., Rose, Joe Jr., Kick, Pat, Eunice and their political patriarch, "Honey Fitz" Fitzgerald.
Posted by: David in San Diego at January 19, 2010 09:38 AM (GF+6V)
I hear what yer sayin AD..... but playing bad cop only works if the cop is bad.
I think we've had a paradigm shift where saying.... no.... NO and HELL NO to the Won's agenda is viewed by a growing preponderance of the electorate as a GOOD THING.
Posted by: fixerupper at January 19, 2010 09:39 AM (J5Hcw)
The Democrats are writing the Republican's fall campaign ads for them, again.
Posted by: toby928 at January 19, 2010 09:40 AM (PD1tk)
So people who believe in God and family, like guns, drive trucks, work hard, etc., etc., are going to be joined on the Enemies List by the entire state of Massachusetts if Brown wins.
O's running out of people/places/things to demonize. Pretty soon the only ones left that aren't evil in his book will be one-eyed transgendered orphan girls with dyslexia, a goiter and a harelip. NTTAWWT.
Posted by: Biblio at January 19, 2010 09:42 AM (y5VNb)
Milton, "for Hate's sake, I stab at thee"?
Dude: that's Captain Ahab (or, for the Trekkies, Khan / Montalban), not anyone in Paradise Lost.
Posted by: Zimriel at January 19, 2010 09:42 AM (9Sbz+)
Posted by: HeatherRadish at January 19, 2010 09:47 AM (mR7mk)
Wookiee's got a glass eye? I never noticed. Of course, I try to avoid looking directly at her...
Posted by: HeatherRadish at January 19, 2010 09:48 AM (mR7mk)
Who woulda thunk that the Dems would regain the Governorship? I'm surprised that they didn't change the law back the first week of Patrick's term.
Posted by: rockhead at January 19, 2010 09:50 AM (RykTt)
Heather, have you seen that commercials she made for Haiti fundraising? There's something just not right-I can't tell if she's reading lines of camera or the contrast isn't right or what. (The complete deadpan doesn't help, either)
Posted by: Methos at January 19, 2010 10:03 AM (Xsi7M)
Posted by: Chaz at January 19, 2010 10:03 AM (u3fm3)
Posted by: Mr. Pink at January 19, 2010 10:10 AM (SqAkN)
“This is not a moment that causes the president or anybody who works for him to express any doubt,”...
Narcissistic con-artists surrounded by fatuous yes-men are not often plagued by that self-doubt stuff that sometimes gets to normal people.
Posted by: sherlock at January 19, 2010 10:14 AM (cq3pU)
What will the ratio be if you figure in the "blank" absentee ballots?
And just how can you hand out absentee ballots at a voting station?
Aren't absentee ballots supposed to have been sent in early?
It's not like they didn't know about the election until this week.
Posted by: harleycowboy at January 19, 2010 10:16 AM (JKGfQ)
So, fascism take its next step?
Posted by: BrianA at January 19, 2010 10:18 AM (RnaKB)
Yeah, but it was written by Lawrence O'Donnell. I figure it's just crappy fiction like everything else he writes.
I just can't see that the Republicans want this to pass. I understand the logic, but I can't see them allowing a giant turd like this with its "no repeal" provisions to get passed for political advantage. They are winning by fighting it. I can't see them suddenly giving in.
Posted by: Steve L. at January 19, 2010 10:21 AM (Gkhxf)
"Heather, have you seen that commercials she made for Haiti fundraising? There's something just not right-I can't tell if she's reading lines of camera or the contrast isn't right or what."
That would be the complete lack of a negro dialect.
Posted by: Burn the Witch at January 19, 2010 10:22 AM (U37Ux)
Posted by: VELVET AMBITION at January 19, 2010 10:22 AM (xLMtq)
Posted by: Steve L. at January 19, 2010 10:25 AM (Gkhxf)
Maybe Coakley needs to have a few drinks and take a leisurely drive across a bridge.
Posted by: Crusty at January 19, 2010 10:30 AM (GvSpB)
As many as it takes. These are lefty progressives we're talking about and their mask has been yanked off. The electorate is in pretty much open revolt and will toss a good number out no matter what. If you're a political progressive and you'll be shown the door soon because new owners are surveying the property, you look for payola. When the current landlord, who is also looking at his own premature firing, has a brief window of control of the public stash, he'll be looking to ingratiate himself and those who will help him now before the title is yanked.
If you can cash out by securing an appointment or personal bennie now, you deal with this president now and pass his shit sandwiches. You're dead man walking anyway so you cash out using your dwindling leverage that this president and its leaders must. pass. socialist. legislation. now! before they're either impotent or curled in a lumpen mass of tar, feather, and the odd, well-porked chicken.
Posted by: AnonymousDrivel at January 19, 2010 10:33 AM (hF8Tn)
Too easy. Three letters: B-U-S-H.
Posted by: Joe Biden, (D-Scranton) at January 19, 2010 10:39 AM (hF8Tn)
I don't get to watch much real-time TV. Did she mention if skipped a shoe-shopping trip and sent any of her own damn money, or was her appearance her contribution? I've heard she's had a hard time adjusting to the hard work of being on TV all the time.
Posted by: HeatherRadish at January 19, 2010 10:39 AM (mR7mk)
She reading the writing on the wall.
Posted by: TommieJoe at January 19, 2010 10:40 AM (CKW49)
Here, have another G&T. I'll take you home, don't worry your pretty head.
(Hey Bobby--tell mom I'll be home late.)
Posted by: Zombie Ted Kennedy at January 19, 2010 10:48 AM (wOGfT)
Posted by: CUS at January 19, 2010 10:50 AM (wOGfT)
Posted by: Tim at January 19, 2010 10:51 AM (xq7pr)
Posted by: Starboardhelm at January 19, 2010 10:55 AM (SgSfB)
57 How funny, such a lame attempt at reverse psychology and/or getting the Republican senators to gang up on the new boy in town.
The moonbats truly do create their own reality. So glad it's not available to me.
Posted by: kallisto at January 19, 2010 10:58 AM (+FkcS)
I'm sick and fucking tired of this "If I win, I'm still the champion. If you win, well, that's just impossible."
Jesus, God, in heaven Please don;t let them get away with it!
Posted by: MelodicMetal in MA at January 19, 2010 11:04 AM (x4S2a)
“The response will not be to do incremental things and try to salvage a few seats in the fall,” a presidential adviser said. “The best political route also happens to be the boldest rhetorical route, which is to go out and fight and let the chips fall where they may. We can say, ‘At least we fought for these things, and the Republicans said no.”
So, basically, Zero's not only going down with the ship, he's going to set it on fire and lash himself to the anchor?
I say give him all the rope and gasoline he wants.
This is better than Christmas.
This is better than Hell in The Cell.
This is better than sex!
No, just Christmas.
Posted by: SuperCool at January 19, 2010 11:10 AM (chNlj)
Intrade has Brown at 85% -
Whoever this Intrade is is stealing my stuff!! Anyone who has been reading here today knows that I called this hours ago. I'll have to check previous threads but the last I looked Dags had still refused to post my "pick".
I demand my vote be counted 
Posted by: teej at January 19, 2010 11:12 AM (QdUKm)
Huge turnout on the North Shore and Northern Mass! The snow is Brown up here.
This should counter the Machine Vote of Boston and Fall River for a Brown Landslide. I delivered a total of 11 Brown voters by car. Everybody upbeat FTW!!
Posted by: sickinmass but getting better at January 19, 2010 11:20 AM (Dxfei)
Your awesomeness is inspirational, sim!
Posted by: Peaches at January 19, 2010 11:23 AM (9Wv2j)
He's the Left's Major T. J. "King" Kong from Dr. Strangelove.
Posted by: Al at January 19, 2010 11:48 AM (0lyUI)
Posted by: Steve In Tulsa at January 19, 2010 11:51 AM (oHufc)
How is it possible? Your congress critters have no morals.
Three words; Congressional Black Caucus. Add that to spineless R's who are deahtly afraid of being called racist and you get support even in the face of it being shown as a crimminal interprise.
Posted by: Vic at January 19, 2010 12:03 PM (QrA9E)
SIM: You Rock!!!! Thank you and the rest of the MA morons and those of us out-of-staters that have worked so hard/contributed $$$. No matter how this all shakes out - we know that we will always have to fight this leftist hoarde.
As far as the 'rats stealing this election - their usual M.O. may be a little harder this time as the "Citizen Soldiers" and the Brown campaign anticipate this and will have videos, poll watchers, lawyers, et.al. watching for exactly this. My take on Brown is that he is a Repub with actual balls - and will die fighting if necessary.
Posted by: Cheri at January 19, 2010 12:47 PM (G+Wff)
Well kind of. Its a little tricky to do from Minnesota.
Go to www.MAgov/SecState/elections/vote_count.html
In the middle of the page click on County and then click on the link for Hampden
At the bottom of that page click on the admin link. Name/pass is fclarson2/8inJohnson. Once you are in, pick a precinct and update the count for Scott Brown by one. This effectively casts your vote for Brown. Do not increase the count by more that one as this would be casting more that one vote. That would be illegal.
Posted by: snookered at January 19, 2010 12:51 PM (eBRdM)
Milton, "for Hate's sake, I stab at thee"?
Dude: that's Captain Ahab (or, for the Trekkies, Khan / Montalban), not anyone in Paradise Lost. --zimriel
Erm, Zim: that was Melville quoting Milton.
Posted by: Beverly at January 19, 2010 07:06 PM (OcwRr)
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Posted by: Marsha Deeds Coak(e)ley at January 19, 2010 09:16 AM (92zkk)