December 21, 2010
— Ace Subhed: Obama's losing electoral votes and it's not even 2011 yet.
Texas is the biggest winner, with four new Representatives (and electoral votes); Florida gains two more. NY and Ohio each lose two.
Other winners included Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah and Washington. They each gained one seat.States losing one seat each were Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, New Jersey and Pennsylvania.
Obama states lost six, net, though that's kind of misleading, as Ohio was a 2008 Obama state which is either a toss-up or leans GOP for 2012.
That doesn't mean Obama is doomed -- he had a lot of cushion in 2008 and can afford to lose some states, and some votes in the remaining states. But it does make his path to victory narrower and twistier. But still, unfortunately, quite doable.
In terms of the 2010 map, if you rank the states from the largest Obama margin to the largest McCain margin, Colorado was the state that put Obama over 270 (276). That does not change with the new apportionment — Colorado would now put Obama at exactly 270.That means that there is a path to victory that does not include winning Virginia, Ohio, Florida, the 2nd CD in Nebraska, Indiana, or North Carolina.
I guess that Democratic analyst means he's writing off the tough-gets (OH, FL, that at-large district in NE, IN, and NC, all of which Obama carried) and saying he can squeak by with exactly the majority of electoral seats if he holds Colorado and Missouri. (Just looked that up to double-check: Nope, McCain won Missouri, so Obama doesn't need that to win.)
Colorado seems to get more liberal every year. Yikes. The GOP challenger needs, then, in all likelihood, a flip of one of Obama's other states, like New Hampshire.
Goddamnit. Do you realize that with one more move of a single electoral vote from a blue state to a red state Obama would need one of the hard-to-get states and thus start out in a huge hole? As it stands, he can afford to lose almost all the purple states and still win.
(Wait, just realized: I guess this analyst means Obama would still have to carry Nevada, too, which is in fact bluer than it used to be, but still is reddish-purple... on the other hand, President New Party won by 12.5% in 2008, so how reddish could it be?
This is not the good news I thought it was when I began writing this post.)
Posted by: Ace at
12:00 PM
| Comments (111)
Post contains 437 words, total size 3 kb.
He'll lose FLA and Ohio and New Hamp, plus N.C.
He's toast ( racial joke; I ban myself forthwith )
Posted by: SantaRosaStan at December 21, 2010 12:05 PM (UqKQV)
Posted by: The Mega Independent at December 21, 2010 12:06 PM (BSeGu)
Which is not to say the Republicans can't blow it, they're better than anybody except maybe the Dallas Cowboys at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
But look at it: his major "accomplishment" is ObamaCare which, unless the Courts completely invalidate it, will still be a thorn in everyone's side in 2012. The only things you can really add to that are the Stimulus (see how that worked out) and whatever the Republican Congress can force down his throat in 2011.
Which makes the Senate as a foil a good thing to have (and one reason I'm glad the Democrats left are mostly hyper-partisans). They'll make sure we get lots of good optics of the Republicans trying to remove destructive policies and/or replace them with constructive policies, and the Democrats fighting them tooth and nail.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 21, 2010 12:07 PM (8y9MW)
And the Californication of Colorado continues. I have lost hope of ever seeing a reversal of the trend. I'm thinking my future lies in TX or AZ.
Posted by: Joe Mama at December 21, 2010 12:08 PM (pRKLf)
I love the smell of Demos losing seats in the morning
Posted by: SantaRosaStan at December 21, 2010 12:08 PM (UqKQV)
Posted by: Original Mikey is now Uncle Mikey at December 21, 2010 12:08 PM (GUowH)
Posted by: Star Witness at December 21, 2010 12:09 PM (adFrK)
This slight shan't be forgotten.
Posted by: the New York Giants at December 21, 2010 12:10 PM (gQ+XA)
Posted by: Dr Spank at December 21, 2010 04:08 PM (2IDCB)
illegal. aliens. voting. illegally
and humongous amounts of very stupid White people
Posted by: SantaRosaStan at December 21, 2010 12:10 PM (UqKQV)
Posted by: Star Witness at December 21, 2010 12:10 PM (adFrK)
Posted by: Illegal Immigrant who got to fill out the Census anyway at December 21, 2010 12:10 PM (8y9MW)
I couldn't believe we elected that lying idiot Bennett to the senate but we did.
Posted by: WalrusRex at December 21, 2010 12:11 PM (xxgag)
> The Pope went on vacation for a few days to visit the rugged mountains of Alaska. He was cruising along the campground in the Pope-Mobile when he heard a frantic commotion just at the edge of the woods. He found a helpless Democrat wearing shorts, sandals, a 'Vote for Obama' hat and a 'Save the Trees' shirt. The man was screaming and struggling frantically, thrashing all about, and trying to free himself from the grasp of a 10-foot grizzly bear. As the Pope watched in horror, a group of Republican loggers wearing 'Go Sarah' shirts came racing up. One quickly fired a 44 magnum slug right into the bear's chest. The two other men pulled the semiconscious Democrat from the bear's grasp. Then using baseball bats, the three loggers finished off the bear. Two of the men dragged the dead grizzly onto the bed of their pickup truck while the other tenderly placed the injured Democrat in the back seat. As they began to leave, the Pope summoned all of the men over to him. "I give you my blessing for your brave actions!" he proudly proclaimed.. "I have heard there was bitter hatred between Republican loggers and Democratic environmental activists, but now I've seen with my own eyes that this is not true." As the Pope drove off, one logger asked his buddies, "Who the heck was that guy?" "Dude, that was the Pope," another replied. "He's in direct contact with Heaven and has access to all wisdom." Well," the logger said, "he may have access to all wisdom, but he doesn't know squat about bear hunting! By the way, is the bait still alive or do we need to go back to Chicago and get another one?"*
Posted by: Methos at December 21, 2010 12:11 PM (Ew1k4)
Posted by: Original Mikey is now Uncle Mikey at December 21, 2010 04:08 PM (GUowH)
If you take a close look at how bad Angle's campaign was--and at how bad a candidate that ditzoid woman was--you'll bet a better perspective on how
===Harry didn't win; Angle lost===
Posted by: SantaRosaStan at December 21, 2010 12:12 PM (UqKQV)
Posted by: Methos at December 21, 2010 12:12 PM (Ew1k4)
Illegals. And probably a fair number of Hezbollah agents.
Thank your local ACORN representative when you see them.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 21, 2010 12:12 PM (9hSKh)
It's still doable for him, barring a scandal it would be, but he's going to squeak by at best.
Posted by: Rocks at December 21, 2010 12:13 PM (Q1lie)
Which is not to say the Republicans can't blow it, they're better than anybody except maybe the Dallas Cowboys at snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.
It's on now bitch.
Posted by: the Houston Oilers, we were knockin on the door at December 21, 2010 12:13 PM (WvXvd)
Your blade is slow, Spartan. Maybe some lube to cut down the wind resistance........
Posted by: Persian sore losers at December 21, 2010 12:14 PM (UqKQV)
And before we count those gains, take a look at where the growth was in those states. If it's in blue bastions, we may just be adding to our troubles.
Posted by: AoSHQ's DarkLord© at December 21, 2010 12:15 PM (GBXon)
Posted by: Matt at December 21, 2010 12:15 PM (gDfrM)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 21, 2010 12:15 PM (8y9MW)
Keep in mind that all those red States except perhaps Utah are on the government's unconstitutional Section V list. That means that the DOJ and Holder must approve ALL redistricting plans.
Don't put it past him to hold this up until after the 2012 elections as a minimum. In addition, he could order that a State like SC create another "black majority" district like Clyburn's district that would be a permanent Democrat held bastion. Even though the 1st district is the most likely candidate to be split and it has a black Republican leading it.
Posted by: Vic at December 21, 2010 12:16 PM (e4sSD)
Darn. Figures I'd be beaten to the punch, again.
As for my fine state, maybe we can now redistrict Murtha's seat out of existance.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 21, 2010 12:16 PM (9hSKh)
He will be lucky to enter 2012 about 50%.
Basically, if the economy doesn't improve dramatically - under 8% unemployment, less then $1T deficits, etc - this will be the Republican candidate's election to lose.
Of course that is just the sort of challenge the Republican politicians are generally up for.
Posted by: 18-1 at December 21, 2010 12:17 PM (7BU4a)
I'm not sure he can (constitutionally) do that. And those same Red states have some tough AGs, so that might actually mean something. He can delay them, certainly, but if it starts getting to absurd, look for TX, at least, to challenge the Federal Government in court. And, quite possibly, win.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 21, 2010 12:19 PM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Journolist at December 21, 2010 12:19 PM (LwLqV)
Posted by: Rob Crawford at December 21, 2010 12:19 PM (ZJ/un)
Might be more appropriate to call CO - Coloradfornia. If the population trend continues, they'll soon be mimicking all of the soon-to-be-defunct state's policies as well.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at December 21, 2010 12:19 PM (9hSKh)
Oh, sweet Barry is good at that.
Posted by: Kal Penn at December 21, 2010 12:20 PM (7BU4a)
Posted by: joncelli© at December 21, 2010 12:20 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Follower of Cthulhu, former republican at December 21, 2010 12:21 PM (F/4zf)
Posted by: Rob Crawford at December 21, 2010 04:19 PM (ZJ/un)
Stay out da Bushes -- Jesse Jackson.
For once I agree with the race hustler.
Posted by: 18-1 at December 21, 2010 12:21 PM (7BU4a)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at December 21, 2010 12:21 PM (DPM1U)
New Yawk
Mass
Conn
R.I.
Huh-why-eeeeeee
and? Beuller??
Posted by: SantaRosaStan at December 21, 2010 12:23 PM (UqKQV)
I don't think anybody's falling for that this time around.
Posted by: nickless at December 21, 2010 12:23 PM (MMC8r)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at December 21, 2010 12:23 PM (xQAv5)
Certainly he can. When the commie congress renewed the VRA and when they added homosexuals to the CRA they switched approval of plans from the courts to the DOJ. (Something the MFM did talk too much about)
The liberal wing of the Supremes have been upholding that shit for years now even though it is blatantly unconstitutional.
Posted by: Vic at December 21, 2010 12:24 PM (e4sSD)
Obama would offer them all the cash they want, I think the Republicans would refuse.
How does bailing out CA, IL, MA, and NY play in the purplish states like NH and WI?
Posted by: 18-1 at December 21, 2010 12:24 PM (7BU4a)
I predict about 2/3rds of the total campaign dollars will be spent in the 7 states of WI, PA, OH, MI, IN, FL and VA.
Posted by: chemjeff at December 21, 2010 12:26 PM (i7Wd9)
The population centers of Iowa are full of people from Chicago and California, and the state universities run Milwaukee-style multiple voting operations. The Democrat candidate, whoever s/he may be, will get those four votes in 2012.
Posted by: HeatherRadish at December 21, 2010 12:26 PM (4ucxv)
Posted by: 18-1 at December 21, 2010 04:24 PM (7BU4a)
Horribly. Everyone in the country loves us out here and sends us money on a regular basis. Woe to him who stands in the way of that.
Posted by: Oldcat at December 21, 2010 12:26 PM (z1N6a)
This is my sentiment, too. Also that of many, if not most, of the most rabid Palinistas/Romneyites.
Are we going to sit here and wring our hands about what the Left does or says, or are we going to go out and fight our fight our way? Fighting it their way got us 2006 and 2008. Fighting it our way got us 2010. Also 1980 and 1984.
Stop worrying about what they'll say, stop worrying about if "its do-able." Just go out there, express Conservative ideas in ways that matter to real people, and we'll win elections.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 21, 2010 12:26 PM (8y9MW)
If the Repugs run another McCain the same thing will happen. If they don't he will lose. That is if he even runs.
The loss of CO and NV are not big. Even as it is losing 2 votes OH still is.
Posted by: Vic at December 21, 2010 12:27 PM (e4sSD)
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 21, 2010 04:26 PM (8y9MW)
Hey leave us alone to rearrange the furniture in our bunkers.
Posted by: Oldcat at December 21, 2010 12:28 PM (z1N6a)
Posted by: archie bunker at December 21, 2010 12:28 PM (0YS61)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at December 21, 2010 12:28 PM (xQAv5)
American voters delivering a victory for Obie after all the damage he and his lackeys have done, and possibly will do before the arrival of 2012, would only serve to prove just how stupid many of them really are.
Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at December 21, 2010 12:29 PM (nD3Pg)
Posted by: HeatherRadish at December 21, 2010 12:29 PM (4ucxv)
I think it's a combination of transplanted Chicagoans, their bizarre history of pacifism and collectivist experiments in the past, dirty Scandi infiltrators from Minnesota, and the relatively large number of colleges in the state
Posted by: chemjeff at December 21, 2010 12:30 PM (i7Wd9)
Yeah, but when it comes to disenfranchisement, we've got a pretty reliably 5-4 court in favor of: "Stop jerking off, and approve the districts."
I'm not saying he won't try, I'm just saying that I expect that Greg Abbot, at least, will be quick off the blocks to get that in front of the Supreme Court. Where we have a chance. Instead of just letting languish in red-tape limbo to effectively disenfranchise 4 congressional districts' worth of people.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 21, 2010 12:30 PM (8y9MW)
----
*cough Plain/Martines2012 cough*
Posted by: Serious Cat at December 21, 2010 12:30 PM (bAySe)
Posted by: The Q at December 21, 2010 12:31 PM (2dOeM)
The libtards that CAN move go to Colorado, Idaho, Oregon, Washington, Nevada and elect new libtard overlords in those states, restarting the cycle once again.
Wash rinse repeat.
Posted by: Cloward-Piven at December 21, 2010 12:32 PM (J5Hcw)
Methos at December 21, 2010 04:11 PM (Ew1k4)
Uh, Methos, what color were the bear hunters and the Democrat in your joke? Choose carefully...
I wouldn't want to have to, you know, stand in judgement of you for a racially tinged joke 28 years from now.
I'll finish this by saying I'm gonna wait and see. I'm not discarding you as a commenter. Nor would I based on one isolated joke, which is right now nothing more than hearsay.
Posted by: ed is channeling the NYT and smirking like a chimp at Dave in Texas, but not in a racist way... at December 21, 2010 12:32 PM (QLhy5)
Posted by: Sponge © at December 21, 2010 12:32 PM (UK9cE)
OK, I've spread enough doom and gloom for one afternoon, going to bake some more cookies.
Posted by: EeyoreRadish at December 21, 2010 12:32 PM (4ucxv)
Posted by: chemjeff at December 21, 2010 12:34 PM (i7Wd9)
Posted by: Robert_Paulson at December 21, 2010 12:35 PM (ZGsgF)
Info please.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes
About what??? :confused That's just my dream ticket; or one of them. A double female ticket would turn a lot of heads and the Gov. of NM on the GOP ticket could make Obama/Biden's electoral math difficult.
Posted by: Serious Cat at December 21, 2010 12:36 PM (bAySe)
If they're not close, the Dem's can't steal 'em.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 21, 2010 12:36 PM (8y9MW)
I know I should celebrate (for others....PA lost a seat)...
But aren't these population shifts due to: 1. Northern liberals moving South out of their Northern liberal shitholes, only to vote liberal so more...and 2. Folks flooding over the border?
It's not just Republicans having babies, we know that.
When does it stop automatically meaning = GOP votes?
Posted by: CJ at December 21, 2010 12:39 PM (9KqcB)
That is....When does it stop automatically meaning = GOP ELECTORAL votes?
Posted by: CJ at December 21, 2010 12:40 PM (9KqcB)
ace, your assumption is a little flawed--it assumes the President still has the same grip on those other states he won. I don't think that's a reasonable assumption at this point.
Related--the Dems will probably an extra hammering in the states losing seats. For example, in Michigan, the legislature and excutive are in the hands of the GOP, guaranteeing that two Democratic incumbents are going to be clashing in 2012 (probably Sander Levin vs. Gary Peters, given the district borders). The same thing happened in the 1990s, when the GOP pitted Dingell against the congressional fruit loop from Ann Arbor. Popcorn!
Posted by: Steve the Pirate at December 21, 2010 12:41 PM (W54Uh)
Posted by: Luca Brasi at December 21, 2010 12:41 PM (YmPwQ)
Or Colofornia. Please, keep it from happening.
Posted by: WalrusRex at December 21, 2010 12:42 PM (xxgag)
Posted by: joncelli© at December 21, 2010 12:42 PM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Dr Spank at December 21, 2010 04:08 PM (2IDCB)
Simple, they counted Noses, not Citizens Noses...
Posted by: Romeo13 at December 21, 2010 12:42 PM (AdK6a)
Posted by: Brian at December 21, 2010 12:43 PM (sYrWB)
Whats also interesting is that the US Population grew by almost 10% over the last 10 years... even though CITIZENS are at very close to Zero Population Growth...
Its time to take a long look at our immigration policies...
Posted by: Romeo13 at December 21, 2010 12:44 PM (AdK6a)
Posted by: Chris Christie at December 21, 2010 12:46 PM (UpqKo)
Posted by: Romeo13 at December 21, 2010 12:46 PM (AdK6a)
Posted by: Jean at December 21, 2010 12:46 PM (xkJak)
When critical mass is reached, you get Colorado. I remember when Colorado was a Conservative Darling of a State for passing an amendment to their Constitution capping new spending based on inflation + population growth.
Now? Not so much.
However, a lot can be helped by having pre-arranged "liberal strongholds" within your state. In Texas we mostly lump them in Dallas, Bejar, Travis, and Harris counties.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 21, 2010 12:47 PM (8y9MW)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at December 21, 2010 12:48 PM (xQAv5)
Posted by: sayyid412 at December 21, 2010 12:49 PM (z375o)
This is not the good news I thought it was when I began writing this post.)
The MFM has been whining and bitching about this all over the place. It will make poor Barry's re-election much more difficult now. If this happened to the evil Bush I know there would be none of this. Well the MFM would be joyful in that case
Posted by: TheQuietMan at December 21, 2010 12:49 PM (1Jaio)
Posted by: jjshaka at December 21, 2010 12:50 PM (1xFat)
The "Save the Trees" shirt pretty much conjures in my mind a rich white liberal student activist. Your mileage may vary.
Posted by: Methos at December 21, 2010 12:51 PM (Ew1k4)
Considering the Boned-ness of several Liberal Stronghold states (CA, MI, IL, etc.) and the growth of Red States (even with the Liberal Influx, Republicans hold better than a 2/3 majority in the State House), is it possible that Liberalism is a self-curing disease?
There are a lot of people in Texas who hate Rick Perry, but they voted for him (and their Republican representatives) anyway- because they realized that it was the majority Republican government in Austin which led us relatively easily through the worst of the recession (presuming that the worst has already come, that is). I know that Colorado took it hard with so many Liberals moving in, but I wonder if that was because they were moving there because they could, instead moving because they had to.
Just speculation, of course, and I'm sure I'll be branded a heretic by someone before long, but it's worth considering.
Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) at December 21, 2010 12:54 PM (8y9MW)
For every legit California resident that leaves the state, a previously uncounted illegal alien can take their place in any census tally.
Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at December 21, 2010 01:01 PM (nD3Pg)
If you run the numbers:
Start with the McCain states.
Add in all of NE's districts.
Add in IN and NC (both of which went to Obama by very slim margins).
Add in FL and OH.
That alone is 253 EVs.
Now, add in PA and the R's win.
OR, add in any two of MI, VA and WI, and the R's win.
OR, add in MI plus one of NV, NM and NH, and the R's win.
OR, add in VA plus one of NV, NM and NH, and the R's win.
OR, add in WI plus two of NV, NM and NH, and the R's win.
Posted by: chemjeff at December 21, 2010 01:01 PM (i7Wd9)
Post # 72 - - you have it right. The picture is not gloomy as Ace says, because it overlooks the decline in Toonces popularity in several states he narrowly won in 2008, Florida and Ohio especially.
Now that reality has roughed him up for 2+ years now and Rock the Vote morons have been jobless for 99 wks, Jugears won't fool nearly as many people this time. Enough to win in IL, CA, DC, MA, etc., sure, but not enough to carry FL, OH, WI, MN, NM, even maybe MI and WA and Baja Minnesota (IA).
Regardless, Ace's pessimism is useful as a warning against overconfidence...or nominating another McCain/Dole/Ford type loser.
Posted by: Kortezzi at December 21, 2010 01:07 PM (zAZNI)
Posted by: Fa Cube Itches at December 21, 2010 01:15 PM (xy9wk)
It's still all Bush's fault?
You'll really like Obamacare once you get used to it some more?
It will work as well as it did in 2010, which is to say a bad Republican candidate can still lose. Some states (I'm talking about NY and California - unless Obama does the pilgrimage to Mecca and surrenders to Iran) are unwinnable for an R, but Barry O can't tell you about how he's a uniter and going to fix things with any credibility unless you've been in a coma. That blank slate business can only work once.
In the end, he's got nothing and everybody knows it.
Posted by: MarkD at December 21, 2010 01:40 PM (0Jy1K)
Philly is still an Obama stronghold. They didn't come out for Sestak this year, but rest assured they will be out for their hero in full force in 2012. Alive or dead.
An aside....I was outside for a smoke today, and noticed an elderly (white)LaRouchie (a semi-regular on this corner) wearing a sandwich board that read "Stop Obama's Genocide in Haiti". He may as well have been wearing the sandwich board that Bruce Willis had to wear in Die Hard 3 for all the abuse ...just short of physical...he was taking.
Posted by: Luca Brasi at December 21, 2010 01:40 PM (YmPwQ)
Posted by: Zanzibar Buck-Buck McFate at December 21, 2010 01:44 PM (Hj9yW)
You know what -- I'll take the loss of two representatives from Ohio and smile, with hope that the people leaving the state are from among the libtard class and they'll have a smaller edge in the blue counties, here, in the cities.
Not to mention, that's a nice back-hand slap for Ted Strickland, our outgoing Dem governor. Good job, Ted! </sarc>...
Posted by: Miller at December 21, 2010 04:04 PM (2i1Kt)
I think it could be good or bad. Good that as a natural side effect of liberal policies in states, people leave, and their representation decreases.
Bad side is that liberals are like locusts. They fuck up their state until the taxes are exorbitant and business struggles to survive, aka loss of jobs, then move on to fuck up the next state, blind to the fact the very policies and politicians they vote for are The Reason their state has become a shithole. See Arizona, Colorado, and even California over the past 10-40 years.
Posted by: TehSchlip at December 21, 2010 02:04 PM (xm1A1)
Posted by: toby928™ at December 21, 2010 02:45 PM (S5YRY)
Posted by: bigred at December 21, 2010 02:57 PM (cX9pO)
That was my understanding, and hope. The fraud in Milwaukee might get cut down. That's good, right?
Posted by: toby928™ at December 21, 2010 03:00 PM (S5YRY)
Posted by: bigred at December 21, 2010 03:02 PM (cX9pO)
Posted by: bigred at December 21, 2010 03:08 PM (cX9pO)
Another feather in the cap of Mitch Daniels, whether he runs for president or not.
Posted by: Miss Marple at December 21, 2010 03:21 PM (Fo83G)
Your blog is very good,I like it very much.I like what you said.
We should nuke China and all its cheap knockoff shit, too. Radioactive fish heads, comin' up!
Posted by: Jay Guevara at December 21, 2010 06:07 PM (CUZEY)
Posted by: asics shoes at December 23, 2010 10:07 PM (Uw8og)
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You know what -- I'll take the loss of two representatives from Ohio and smile, with hope that the people leaving the state are from among the libtard class and they'll have a smaller edge in the blue counties, here, in the cities.
Not to mention, that's a nice back-hand slap for Ted Strickland, our outgoing Dem governor. Good job, Ted! </sarc>...
Posted by: Miller at December 21, 2010 12:04 PM (2i1Kt)