September 21, 2010

PPP: West Virginia Senate Race: GOP Candidate Raese Leads By 3
— DrewM

Ace teased this yesterday and now the numbers are out.

46-43 with GOP candidate John Raese leading Governor Joe Manchin within the margin of error. (I corrected this part thanks to a heads ups from CAC in the comments)

The thing that is making this so close is that voters don't really want to see Democrats control Congress but they really like Manchin.

Manchin is the second most popular Governor PPP has polled on all year, behind only Bobby Jindal, with a 59/32 approval spread. He breaks almost even with Republicans as 42% of them approve of the job he's doing with just 44% disapproving. In a highly polarized political climate the list of politicians with that kind of crossover popularity is very short.

At the same time West Virginians couldn't be much more down on national Democrats. Barack Obama's approval rating in the state is just 30% with 64% of voters disapproving of him. Even within his own party barely half of voters, at 51%, like the job he's doing. Support from Republicans (91% disapproval) and independents (73% disapproval) is pretty much nonexistent.

Given the President's high degree of unpopularity it's no surprise that 54% of voters in the state want Republicans to control the next Congress with just 37% wanting the Democrats to stay in charge. GOP voters (91-3) and independents (66-21) are pretty universal in their desire for a Republican majority and even 25% of Democrats say they'd like to see a change.

The GOP candidate, John Raese is a self-funder and he's been spending quite a bit to get the race to this point, there's no reason he won't keep it up. Given the wave that's coming it's very possible that the Exalted Grand Cyclopes is going to replaced by a Republican.

Oh and just a reminder...this is a special election as well, so the winner gets to sit in the lame duck.

Posted by: DrewM at 07:32 AM | Comments (80)
Post contains 339 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Does a Raese win mean we can forget about DE?

Posted by: EC at September 21, 2010 07:33 AM (mAhn3)

2 DREW FIX IT ITS RAESE 46 MANCHIN 43- THE REPUBLICAN IS WINNING IN WEST VIRGINIA

Posted by: CAC at September 21, 2010 07:34 AM (lV4Fs)

3 I think this deserves a flaming pudding cup.

Manchin's approval rating in West Virginia is somewhere around the level of God and the late Robert Byrd and he's LOSING this race.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at September 21, 2010 07:34 AM (wDKwf)

4 I think this deserves a flaming pudding cup.

Or a flaming white hood since it was Sheets Byrd's seat...


Posted by: Hedgehog at September 21, 2010 07:36 AM (oQIfB)

5 I think this deserves a flaming pudding cup.

Or a flaming white hood since it was Sheets Byrd's seat...

I think we have a winner if someone wants to do the Photoshop work to pull it off.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at September 21, 2010 07:36 AM (wDKwf)

6 Drew you moron, it's MORE THAN A RACE.  Raese is AHEAD 46 to 43.

You reversed the numbers just because you couldn't actually believe it to be true, eh? 

You're gonna need to fix the headline as well.  Maybe bring out the flaming skull.

Posted by: Esoteric at September 21, 2010 07:37 AM (NjYDy)

7 CAC, Thanks. Fixed it.

Posted by: DrewM. at September 21, 2010 07:38 AM (U1NcL)

8 I could always come back and run again.  There are still a few trees in the SW corner of the state without my name on them.

Posted by: Zombie Byrd at September 21, 2010 07:39 AM (YXmuI)

9 Pudding Index up 40% in WV.

Posted by: logprof at September 21, 2010 07:40 AM (BP6Z1)

10

Oh and just a reminder...this is a special election as well, so the winner gets to sit in the lame duck.

If Raese would vote against Cap-n-Tax, then this race is just as important as the DE race. 

Would DioGuardi, if he beats Gillibrand, also be seated in the lame duck?  (I know, probably a long shot, but a moronette can dream, can't she?)

Posted by: Marybeth at September 21, 2010 07:41 AM (hBRoa)

11 4 I think this deserves a flaming pudding cup.

Or a flaming white hood since it was Sheets Byrd's seat...


Posted by: Hedgehog at September 21, 2010 11:36 AM (oQIfB)

--Let's bag the seat first.

Unlike Chris Coons, we shouldn't whip it out and stroke it just yet.

Posted by: logprof at September 21, 2010 07:41 AM (BP6Z1)

12 I'm investing in pudding futures. Are they listed on the Chicago exchange yet?

Posted by: Have Blue at September 21, 2010 07:41 AM (mV+es)

13 How many lame duck elections are like this this year?  We've got the Senate race here in Illinois that will also seat the winner immediately.  (Actually, you have to vote for the lame duck seat separately, but it works out the same)

It would be wonderful to come out of the elections with a few seats to guarantee the Dems don't try to pull a fast one in the lame duck session.

Posted by: ChiTown Jerry at September 21, 2010 07:42 AM (f9c2L)

14

Leading by 3%, within the margin of error?  What's the rule of thumb when the R is within the margin of error? 

I don't know much about Raese though.  Should I be Joe Miller-excited, or more like Mike Castle (if he had won)-excited?

Posted by: shillelagh at September 21, 2010 07:42 AM (Oz4Bj)

15
Yeah, can we win at least one election before we start celebrating?

Posted by: the unknown comic at September 21, 2010 07:43 AM (uFokq)

16 The irony is that this was never supposed to be a special election. According to the rules, since White Sheets died after a certain date, the governor was supposed to appoint someone to the seat until the 2012 election. However they bent the rules so that Manchin could run in what he thought would be a shoe-in.

Posted by: JC at September 21, 2010 07:44 AM (pvRt/)

17 Should I be Joe Miller-excited, or more like Mike Castle (if he had won)-excited?

Self made millionaire in the coal business.  This ain't Mike Fuckin' Castle.

Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at September 21, 2010 07:44 AM (5aa4z)

18 We need to win before we celebrate, but we can get excited at good news.  This is good news, hence the excitement. 

Posted by: shillelagh at September 21, 2010 07:45 AM (Oz4Bj)

19
What about the CO seat?

Posted by: the unknown comic at September 21, 2010 07:45 AM (uFokq)

20 Dip, meet Balls.

Posted by: Walsingham at September 21, 2010 07:46 AM (dCigj)

21 14 How many lame duck elections are like this this year? 
Posted by: ChiTown Jerry at September 21, 2010 11:42 AM (f9c2L)


Four or five, IIRC.
Delaware (Biden term), West Virginia (Byrd term), Illinois (Obama term), New York (Clinton term) and perhaps Colorado (Salazar term).

Posted by: ya2daup at September 21, 2010 07:47 AM (Wqfrr)

22 Don't worry, Governor. You've got me.

Posted by: Boat-anchor Obama at September 21, 2010 07:47 AM (FcR7P)

23 MOUNTAIN DEW REVOLUTION!!!!!!!11!111111

*I'm appalachian, so I'm totally allowed to say this.

Posted by: krukke1 at September 21, 2010 07:48 AM (7KLwM)

24 But on to the important stuff.  What is Raese's opinion on masturbation and witchcraft?

Posted by: Hedgehog at September 21, 2010 07:48 AM (oQIfB)

25 Oh good, let's take WV and stop talking about DE. The chicken will thank us.

Posted by: joncelli at September 21, 2010 07:48 AM (RD7QR)

26

Obama's anti Coal policies only help Raese.

Manchin may be popular there, but they are smart enough to know he will vote party line like that douchebag Rockafeller does.

WV can't survive a cap and trade type bill being put into law and they know it.

Posted by: Ben at September 21, 2010 07:49 AM (wuv1c)

27 I know for a fact that Governor Joe Manchin read every one of the Harry Potter books, saw all the movies, is going to camp out to see the "Deathly Hallows".

Also, he tried to get into Hogwarts at age 11 and cried like a baby when he found out it wasn't a real school.

Posted by: Radioactive Satellite Of LOVE at September 21, 2010 07:49 AM (LdYLm)

28 What, no thread about Harry Reid calling Kirstin Gillibrand "hawt"? C'mon, Ace, the opportunities for mockery are boundless!

Posted by: ya2daup at September 21, 2010 07:49 AM (Wqfrr)

29

Should I be Joe Miller-excited, or more like Mike Castle (if he had won)-excited?

Self made millionaire in the coal business.  This ain't Mike Fuckin' Castle.

Oh, that's good, and it's 180 degrees from the left green agenda besides.  And the Dems have to be able to explain how a Republican is a step down from a Klansman.  Lefty heads a-splode. 

Posted by: shillelagh at September 21, 2010 07:49 AM (Oz4Bj)

30 I'm running late for my tee time.

Posted by: Slappy McF*ckstick at September 21, 2010 07:49 AM (GwPRU)

31 But Intrade has Manchin up 20%!!!





sorry but someone had to do it...

Posted by: Hedgehog at September 21, 2010 07:50 AM (oQIfB)

32 27 But on to the important stuff.  What is Raese's opinion on masturbation and witchcraft?

Posted by: Hedgehog at September 21, 2010 11:48 AM (oQIfB)

At last, someone here ready to focus on the issues.

Posted by: Chris Coons at September 21, 2010 07:50 AM (BP6Z1)

33

What, no thread about Harry Reid calling Kirstin Gillibrand "hawt"? C'mon, Ace, the opportunities for mockery are boundless!

No kidding.  Ace, don't deprive us! 

Posted by: Marybeth at September 21, 2010 07:51 AM (hBRoa)

34 And pay attention to the NY senate race as well. Gillibrand is leading by a lot, but that's mainly to to Dioguardi being largely unknown. Gillabrand constantly gets under 50% in the polls, a danger mark for incumbents.

Since winning the primary Dioguardi has already cut his deficit from 20-25 points to just 10 points. Another surprise upset?

Posted by: JC at September 21, 2010 07:51 AM (pvRt/)

35

QUEERS!!11!!

 

Posted by: Creepy union lady in a red slicker at September 21, 2010 07:52 AM (pr+up)

36 I have it on good authority that John Raese does not squeeze the squirrel.  That's not the kind of radical we need representing the people of West Virgina.

Posted by: Joe Manchin at September 21, 2010 07:52 AM (5aa4z)

37 SO wait...I'm confused. What does this have to do with DE? I thought that was the only thing going on anywhere...

Posted by: MMW at September 21, 2010 07:52 AM (kt/h1)

38 My prediction - if Rease wins, Webb flips or takes a senior adminstration job (SecDef).

Posted by: Jean at September 21, 2010 07:52 AM (g8OOc)

39

And pay attention to the NY senate race as well. Gillibrand is leading by a lot, but that's mainly to to Dioguardi being largely unknown. Gillabrand constantly gets under 50% in the polls, a danger mark for incumbents.

Since winning the primary Dioguardi has already cut his deficit from 20-25 points to just 10 points. Another surprise upset?

Damnit. Giuliani should have run for that seat. He would have won it too.

Posted by: Ben at September 21, 2010 07:53 AM (wuv1c)

40 Since winning the primary Dioguardi has already cut his deficit from 20-25 points to just 10 points. Another surprise upset?

Posted by: JC at September 21, 2010 11:51 AM (pvRt/)

No way, Gillibrand is too hot and she doesn't smell like you wingers.

 

Posted by: Dingy Reid at September 21, 2010 07:54 AM (pr+up)

41 42 My prediction - if Rease wins, Webb flips or takes a senior adminstration job (SecDef). Posted by: Jean at September 21, 2010 11:52 AM (g8OOc) They won't like that at the Pentagon -- he seems to have been roundly hated when he was SecNav.

Posted by: joncelli at September 21, 2010 07:55 AM (RD7QR)

42

The rule is you have to sock "In before In before the troll" to do that punchline. Or the even more complicated "In before In before In before the troll".

Questions - see Ricky Henderson or Bob Dole.

Posted by: Mallamutt at September 21, 2010 11:52 AM (OWjjx)


My bad...so noted

Posted by: Guy who didn't sock In before In beforeIn before the troll at September 21, 2010 07:55 AM (oQIfB)

43 39

Posted by: Hedgehog at September 21, 2010 11:50 AM (oQIfB)

The rule is you have to sock "In before In before the troll" to do that punchline. Or the even more complicated "In before In before In before the troll".

Questions - see Ricky Henderson or Bob Dole.

Bob Dole doesn't know what you're talking about.  Bob Dole's just going to amuse himself by going more no-armed pushups thanks to Viagra, the quicker-dicker-upper

Posted by: Bob Dole at September 21, 2010 07:55 AM (wDKwf)

44 When people are willing to put real money on their opinion at Intrade.com they still bet heavily on the Dems winning in WV

Posted by: belzebub's burp at September 21, 2010 07:56 AM (I+7Zv)

45

Speaking of Gillibrand:

http://tinyurl.com/2awmx3p

The stupid is strong with this one. 

Posted by: Marybeth at September 21, 2010 07:56 AM (hBRoa)

46

No way, Gillibrand is too hot and she doesn't smell like you wingers.

 

Posted by: Dingy Reid at September 21, 2010 11:54 AM (pr+up)


No she smells like cats...and tuna.

Posted by: Hedgehog at September 21, 2010 07:56 AM (oQIfB)

47 48 - And the troll shows up!

(Hey troll, we were in before you!)

Posted by: Have Blue at September 21, 2010 07:57 AM (mV+es)

48 Me! Me! Pay attention to me!

Posted by: Delaware at September 21, 2010 07:58 AM (Wqfrr)

49

Speaking of Gillibrand:

http://tinyurl.com/2awmx3p

The stupid is strong with this one. 

Posted by: Marybeth at September 21, 2010 11:56 AM (hBRoa)


The ads just write themselves with these idiots.  Just show a clip of that stupid video of this dumb scrunt covered in blood in lingerie and say "this is who Gillabrand consults on important defense matters like DADT." 

Posted by: Hedgehog at September 21, 2010 07:58 AM (oQIfB)

50 I sense a new thread.

Posted by: Have Blue at September 21, 2010 07:59 AM (mV+es)

51 Oh good, let's take WV and stop talking about DE. The chicken will thank us.

Posted by: joncelli

 

Indeed.

Posted by: Blue Hen at September 21, 2010 08:01 AM (R2fpr)

52

The ads just write themselves with these idiots.  Just show a clip of that stupid video of this dumb scrunt covered in blood in lingerie and say "this is who Gillabrand consults on important defense matters like DADT." 

The GOP would do well to add Ace to its daily reading list for good ideas.  Problem is, they aren't much smarter than Gillibrand. 

Posted by: Marybeth at September 21, 2010 08:01 AM (hBRoa)

53 47 Bob Dole doesn't know what you're talking about.  Bob Dole's just going to amuse himself by going more no-armed pushups thanks to Viagra, the quicker-dicker-upper.
Posted by: Bob Dole at September 21, 2010 11:55 AM (wDKwf)

Bob Dole has good wood, Liddy's satisfied and 3 hours, 50 minutes left on the timer ... who's next?

Posted by: The Real Bob Dole at September 21, 2010 08:01 AM (Wqfrr)

54

In all fairness, I like Lady Gaga.  Yes, I think the fame (and probably coke, hopefully not H) is getting her strung out, but she is a genuine entertainer, and she revels in her persona in a way I don't think any entertainer has since David Bowie.  Between the persona, the theatrics, and genuine skill that just gets lost in the unfortunate auto-tuned standard of pop music, I think she's a worthwhile figure in the entertainment world. 

Why a Senator would consult her for policy advice is beyond me, unless it was just an excuse to meet Lady Gaga. 

Posted by: shillelagh at September 21, 2010 08:05 AM (Oz4Bj)

55 Paladino is running as an unadorned conservative. He explicitly opposes abortion even in the case a rape and incest. And yet he is going to win. All the stuff being thrown, and going to be thrown, against Paladino, would normally sink another candidate. Yet Paladino is going to win. Why? Among many reasons, even New Yorkers want to eject the Parasite Party, dems and pubs from the Ruling Class who have smothered this beautiful state. Paladino is bluntly running against the Parasite Party. That trumps all.

Posted by: Tonawanda at September 21, 2010 08:06 AM (bN5ZU)

56

Why a Senator would consult her for policy advice is beyond me, unless it was just an excuse to meet Lady Gaga. 

Posted by: shillelagh at September 21, 2010 12:05 PM (Oz4Bj)


I've become a crotchety old fart at the young age of 41.  Plus I have an almost 10 year old daughter and I can't stand gaga's schtick. 

Anyway, if she wanted to meet her, keep the meeting's purpose a secret.  Maybe Gillibrand is looking for "gay cred" from gaga.

Oh, and STAY OFF MY LAWN!

Posted by: Hedgehog at September 21, 2010 08:09 AM (oQIfB)

57 61 If he wins, more power to him because he's doing it as a self-funder.  He's not going to owe anything to the powerbrokers because they all backed Lazio hard and he thumped him anyway.

It should be interesting to watch what happens when Andy Cuomo starts trying to push his "I'm the REAL Tea Party candidate!" bullshit harder and Paladino reminds people that Cuomo's the kid of tax-and-spend Mario Cuomo as well as being a big part of the real estate bubble thanks to his time in the Clinton administration.  IIRC, he was also on the board of Freddie and/or Fannie after his time with the Clintons as well.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at September 21, 2010 08:12 AM (wDKwf)

58
You like me! You really like me!

Posted by: In before the troll at September 21, 2010 08:12 AM (P9+0W)

59 ... mine safety? ... dinner at the the four seasons in ny? ... a weekend at the hay-adams in d.c.?

Posted by: gomm at September 21, 2010 08:14 AM (7JES6)

60 ... an all expenses paid trip for two to bali?

Posted by: gomm at September 21, 2010 08:15 AM (7JES6)

61 Cuomo owns the national real estate disaster and the consequent Financial Crisis. Every New Yorker will know this and believe this by November.

Posted by: Tonawanda at September 21, 2010 08:17 AM (bN5ZU)

62 WE NEED TO HELP DIOGUARDI. Raese closed the gap. McMahon is closing the gap. Dio needs some help here and there and he will too. EVERY OTHER lame duck sitter is getting $$ or attention like crazy (DE,IL,WV).

Posted by: CAC at September 21, 2010 08:17 AM (lV4Fs)

63

Hedgehog,

I  can understand that having a 10 year old daughter would make you... extra weary and wary of someone like Lady Gaga.  Fair enough. 

Don't let her see your Poker Face when it comes to questionable content, even if it does make you want to Just Dance.  As long as you don't Telephone it in, like many parents, you can keep your child safe from forming a Bad Romance with the Love Game of over-sexualized pop culture and their Paparazzi obesession with fame. 

 

 

Alejandro. 

Posted by: shillelagh at September 21, 2010 08:17 AM (Oz4Bj)

64 Bezelbub's Burp?

Posted by: nikkolai at September 21, 2010 08:18 AM (mRz2K)

65 Madonna should sue Lady Ga Ga for stealing her act.

Posted by: SurferDoc at September 21, 2010 08:18 AM (RKpGM)

66 I love it when we beat john ryan to the punch with the Intrade thing. (thanks, Hedgehog!).

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 21, 2010 08:26 AM (P9+0W)

67 "67 Cuomo owns the national real estate disaster and the consequent Financial Crisis.

Every New Yorker will know this and believe this by November.

Posted by: Tonawanda at September 21, 2010 12:17 PM (bN5ZU)"


"Edward J. Pinto, former chief credit officer at Fannie Mae, said "they should have known the risks were large. Cuomo was pushing mortgage bankers to make loans and basically saying you have to offer a loan to everybody." link

Posted by: curious at September 21, 2010 08:27 AM (p302b)

68 You like me! You really like me!

Posted by: In before the troll

 

More than the troll anyway. (I had to go there)

Posted by: Gabby Blue Hen Johnson at September 21, 2010 08:37 AM (R2fpr)

69

Alejandro. 

Posted by: shillelagh at September 21, 2010 12:17 PM (Oz4Bj)


Huh...was that a try to get a bunch of her stupid song titles into a post?

Posted by: King Barack the Munificient at September 21, 2010 08:38 AM (oQIfB)

70 Off Sock!

Posted by: Hedgehog at September 21, 2010 08:38 AM (oQIfB)

71

The irony is that this was never supposed to be a special election. According to the rules, since White Sheets died after a certain date, the governor was supposed to appoint someone to the seat until the 2012 election. However they bent the rules so that Manchin could run in what he thought would be a shoe-in.

 

Bwhahahaha!  It's just like the irony of changing the law in M(Assachussetts) so that Romney couldn't appoint a Senator and going to the Special Election so that subsequently, Patrick couldn't appoint a Senator to Ted Kennedy's seat (which resulted in a Scott Brown win).  God really does have a sense of humor!


Posted by: runningrn at September 21, 2010 08:56 AM (8GYOu)

72

Bwhahahaha!  It's just like the irony of changing the law in M(Assachussetts) so that Romney couldn't appoint a Senator and going to the Special Election so that subsequently, Patrick couldn't appoint a Senator to Ted Kennedy's seat (which resulted in a Scott Brown win).  God really does have a sense of humor!

That's why I try not to get too torqued about election stuff.  Things can turn on a dime, and often they do.   The ride is fun though.

Posted by: EZB at September 21, 2010 09:04 AM (Ty06w)

73 Yeah, baby, ride the wave!

Posted by: DelD at September 21, 2010 09:21 AM (TioQP)

74 If Raese would vote against Cap-n-Tax, then this race is just as important as the DE race.

No way Raese would vote for Crap-n-Tax.  He'd never be allowed back in Morgantown.

Posted by: Reiver at September 21, 2010 09:34 AM (64S5N)

75 *ahem*

For those who were doubting me, let me just say "I am telling you so."

We don't need to win DE when we got WV.

Posted by: Pipe Barackage at September 21, 2010 10:02 AM (Gwfoy)

76 We don't need to win DE when we got WV.

You are fucking stupid. Christine O'Donnell is a national embarrassment.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at September 21, 2010 12:34 PM (mHQ7T)

77 Cuomo was pushing mortgage bankers to make loans and basically saying you have to offer a loan to everybody.

Ever heard of robbing Peter to pay Paul? Guess which one is voting for Cuomo. Democrats will never own up to how the housing market destroyed the economy. It was "eight years of disastrous Bush policies."

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at September 21, 2010 12:39 PM (mHQ7T)

78 Since winning the primary Dioguardi has already cut his deficit from 20-25 points to just 10 points. Another surprise upset?

Posted by: JC at September 21, 2010 11:51 AM (pvRt/)

If he had Bible Spice II's money. He's just not "conservative" enough, I guess.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at September 21, 2010 12:42 PM (mHQ7T)

79 Should I be Joe Miller-excited, or more like Mike Castle (if he had won)-excited?

Posted by: shillelagh at September 21, 2010 11:42 AM (Oz4Bj)

AK went from a lock to leans R, and DE went from a lock to leans D. Now Joe Miller is a "true conservative"  and Mike Castle was an evil traitor with no business running for office in DE or anywhere. I have no idea what turns you on, but Christine O'Donnell says you'll go blind.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at September 21, 2010 12:52 PM (mHQ7T)

80 Paladino is running as an unadorned unendorsed conservative. No Republican has ever won without the Conservative Party's endorsement in NY.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at September 21, 2010 12:54 PM (mHQ7T)

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