October 27, 2010
— CAC Ok, saw this in a thread:
"However, every election has surprises....so in addition to the Gabe sponsored prediciton pool, we should start another "predict the upset no one saw coming" contest.
I will start - Jesse Jackson Jr. Illinois 2 - gets beat by the Rev. Issac Hayes."
Posted by: Mallamutt
Sounds like an interesting topic.
So, name a seat, House or Senate, that your gut tells you flips but nobody really thinks it will, then argue with each other. Each poster gets ONE seat to name. Mallamutt apparently already did.
If you guess right I will email the secret recipe for SuperBacon.
Posted by: CAC at
10:44 AM
| Comments (270)
Post contains 117 words, total size 1 kb.
Ok
I will pick Keith Rothfus to beat Jason Altmire in PA-4
The last time i saw a poll, Keith was down 15+ points, but that was months ago. People aren't even paying attention to this race because it is an assumed Democratic hold. However I think the turnout in PA 4 for Toomey and Corbett will benefit Rothfus down ticket. I spoke to a ton of people excited about Toomey and are going to pull the Republican lever.
Posted by: Ben at October 27, 2010 10:50 AM (wuv1c)
Posted by: Fallen Sparrow at October 27, 2010 10:51 AM (KGBoc)
I'm taking Gunny Popaditch in CA-51. There's apparently no polling out of there so nobody knows where this solid-blue district will go.
Posted by: Max Entropy at October 27, 2010 10:52 AM (la188)
Gosh, I hope that's true, but I've been unable to find any polls. Also, although Lollar has gotten some good media airtime in conservative circles, he has not been promoted for a "money bomb" the way some others have... which makes me think that the politicos on the right know that he is out of reach compared to, say, Bielat or the rocket scientist (McClung?).
Do you have any numbers or is it a hunch?
I wonder if we could learn anything by looking at the gubernatorial candidates polling in that district (if we could find those numbers).
Posted by: Y-not at October 27, 2010 10:53 AM (UcOiF)
Posted by: ExurbanKevin at October 27, 2010 10:53 AM (a/Ojb)
Posted by: cali grump at October 27, 2010 10:53 AM (hL0k8)
Posted by: Peter Venkman at October 27, 2010 10:54 AM (Pir3k)
Posted by: Jayne Cobb at October 27, 2010 10:54 AM (AVbdY)
Posted by: IveGotABraceletTooJim at October 27, 2010 10:54 AM (I/quV)
Posted by: mpur in Texas (kicking Mexico's ass since 1836) at October 27, 2010 10:55 AM (plthz)
Posted by: mpfs at October 27, 2010 10:55 AM (iYbLN)
Jan Schakowsky (self-described liberal, her imprisoned husband is given quite a bit of credit for writing the bulk of obamacare) beaten by Joel Pollak (the man that called out Barney Frank)
umm..."polock beaten by pollak"
Posted by: TheThinMan at October 27, 2010 10:57 AM (W3XUk)
Posted by: Blue Hen at October 27, 2010 10:57 AM (R2fpr)
They're having down-ticket troubles there in House races and the Governor's race. Depending on the turnout percentages, especially since black voters are less likely to vote this year, victories by former Gov. Erlich and others could drag Wargotz over the finish line despite Mikluski polling solidly ahead. (Frankly, I don't think "likely voter" models in heavily Dem states like Maryland will be particularly accurate come Election Day.)
Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at October 27, 2010 10:58 AM (onSgJ)
Posted by: WesternActor at October 27, 2010 10:58 AM (g8k+c)
The Warriors will make it all the way across Manhattan to the safety of their home turf, Coney Island.
Posted by: Dang at October 27, 2010 11:00 AM (TXKVh)
Posted by: TheThinMan at October 27, 2010 11:01 AM (W3XUk)
He's going to have to retire. Right now, the local Republican party let a Stark shill win the primary and he's got a write-in challenger splitting the vote. I'm hoping that being in the minority again will make those frequent trips out here to pretend that he's still a resident of his district not worth the effort and he retires. One can hope.
Posted by: Max Entropy at October 27, 2010 11:01 AM (la188)
Posted by: Sort-of-Mad Max at October 27, 2010 11:01 AM (ERJIu)
Posted by: Phelps at October 27, 2010 11:01 AM (/rCiW)
Greg's mom makes him clean his room. Posted by: cali grump
-----------
Michelle is so mad she stops eating.
Posted by: arhooley at October 27, 2010 11:02 AM (iPJmr)
Posted by: Deb at October 27, 2010 11:02 AM (WBsMy)
Posted by: JonathanG at October 27, 2010 11:03 AM (0MmSw)
Posted by: mpfs at October 27, 2010 11:03 AM (iYbLN)
Posted by: Stan at October 27, 2010 11:03 AM (N1Gru)
30
The Warriors will make it all the way across Manhattan to the safety of their home turf, Coney Island.
Reminds me of last March, out with the crowd in front of the Russell Office Building, chanting "Nancy! Come out and play-yay!..."
Posted by: Haiku Guy at October 27, 2010 11:04 AM (Bhe/R)
Posted by: DarkLordOfTheIntarWebs at October 27, 2010 11:05 AM (GBXon)
The Warriors will make it all the way across Manhattan to the safety of their home turf, Coney Island.
Can you dig it?!?
Posted by: Cyrus at October 27, 2010 11:05 AM (onSgJ)
Anna Little Beats
Frank Pallone - NJ-6
Take it to the bank.
I pick this one, too
Even though Frank Pallone is
Up by seven now.
Posted by: TiredWench at October 27, 2010 11:07 AM (oPceJ)
Kathy Castor, D-Tampa. This race gets no attention and no polling. Her opponent Mike Prendergast (as unspellable as that is) is a local boy, Catholic and a retired US Army Colonel.
People forget that it was at Castor's town hall meetings that we first saw the uprising last summer.
Prendergast is a Tea-Party compatible conservative with no weirdness or bizarre behavior in his history. http://www.pickprendergast.com/victory/
There is absolutely no national level buzz about this race and it is running almost completely under the news and blog radar.
Posted by: Ronsonic at October 27, 2010 11:07 AM (VTm+A)
Posted by: Illinidiva at October 27, 2010 11:07 AM (4fQMZ)
A former Naval Command Master Chief and small businessman who is a solid conservative vs. a three-term occasional blogger at the DailyKos ('cause his real job isn't satisfying enough?)
Check out Bill's impressive biography here and donate if you want to populate the next Congress with as many solid conservatives as possible. I've donated once already, and I'm sending him another $100 after I post this.
Posted by: ya2daup at October 27, 2010 11:08 AM (HmCnI)
Yes. Yes, I Can. Especially dressed like Elvira. Hawwwttt!
Posted by: Iblis at October 27, 2010 11:08 AM (9221z)
30
The Warriors will make it all the way across Manhattan to the safety of their home turf, Coney Island.
Reminds me of last March, out with the crowd in front of the Russell Office Building, chanting "Nancy! Come out and play-yay!..."
Posted by: Haiku GuyClinking empty bottles of Botox together?
Posted by: Dang at October 27, 2010 11:09 AM (TXKVh)
Posted by: JonathanG at October 27, 2010 03:03 PM (0MmSw)
OK you hit it first but I get sloppy seconds.
Posted by: John Galt at October 27, 2010 11:09 AM (F/4zf)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2010 11:09 AM (9Cooa)
Buh-bye Jay Inslee. Have fun running for Gov. from home.
Posted by: Editor at October 27, 2010 03:00 PM (pUfK9)
Noooooooooooooooooo this one are mine
Posted by: fiatboomer at October 27, 2010 11:10 AM (0Wf6c)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2010 11:10 AM (9Cooa)
Posted by: Fallen Sparrow at October 27, 2010 11:11 AM (KGBoc)
Posted by: Herr Morgenholz at October 27, 2010 11:11 AM (5aa4z)
I have never EVER voted for a losing candidate and I don't intend to start now. Hellboy takes this one, 50.1-49.7. Take that prediction to the bank.
Posted by: Little Miss Spellcheck at October 27, 2010 11:11 AM (a5ljo)
CA-37
Lawn signs in the district running 40:1 in Star Parkers (R) favor.
No polling data, only models from old data.
Posted by: popcorn at October 27, 2010 11:11 AM (IW9Zk)
BJ Lawson over Price in NC. NC-4 I believe.
Posted by: SEIU Votin Machine Repair Guy at October 27, 2010 11:11 AM (iSEIr)
Pretty much said it all -- Conway had no problem taking money from convicted criminals -- and used the excuse of putting it to good use to help in the fight against drugs and crime in Kentucky and, of course, the lame budget issue. I still had a problem with it. The top law enforcement official of a state should not be taking money from criminals and excusing himself because of a budget -- especially when his state was suing the criminals. The families of victims of OxyContin in Kentucky who lost loved ones to death and addiction may not share Conway's reasons for "dancing with the devil" and taking money from Purdue Pharma. -- Marianne Skolek
Posted by: maverick muse at October 27, 2010 11:11 AM (H+LJc)
Posted by: Katja at October 27, 2010 11:12 AM (GJmYt)
I too, am in IL-2, and would like nothing better than Hayes beating JJJ.
I think it's a long shot in this incredibly gerrymandered district.
However my personal upset pick is Corrigan over Planet Dennis.
Deb, in my neck of the woods (Glenwood, Homewood, Flossmore) I haven't seen a single Demonrat sign.
None for Quinn, none for Alexi, none for Jesse.
Is that your experience also?
Posted by: Purple Raider at October 27, 2010 11:13 AM (YdTUv)
Posted by: JonathanG at October 27, 2010 11:13 AM (0MmSw)
Noooooooooooooooooo this one are mine
Posted by: fiatboomer at October 27, 2010 03:10 PM (0Wf6c)
You can have it, fiat. I cheated with a 2nd. It's yours.
Posted by: Editor at October 27, 2010 11:14 AM (pUfK9)
Posted by: mark c at October 27, 2010 11:14 AM (SBIko)
NJ12 - Scott Sipprelle over Rush Holt
Flemington Tea Party group members making calls and helping out and he's not even our district! We are stuck wtih Mr. Cap and Trade, Leonard Lance.
Posted by: EJ at October 27, 2010 11:14 AM (aM1lf)
Posted by: chald at October 27, 2010 11:14 AM (gZ39T)
Damn, I wanted that one. Okay for out there-no polling-complete bullshit that I will later claim to be genius, I'm going with Steve Kim to beat Lisa Madigan in the IL AG race. Brady's going to win the Governor slot and the mob bankster is going down in flames, so there is no up ticket help for Madigan.
Consequence:
Illinois will join the multi-state suit to overturn Obamacare.
Posted by: Methos at October 27, 2010 11:15 AM (Ew1k4)
Anna Little Beats
Frank Pallone - NJ-6
Take it to the bank.
I pick this one, too
Even though Frank Pallone is
Up by seven now.
All about turn-out
Enlist in Anna's Army,
And Get Out The Vote!
Posted by: Haiku Guy at October 27, 2010 11:16 AM (Bhe/R)
Posted by: maverick muse at October 27, 2010 11:16 AM (H+LJc)
Posted by: rockmom at October 27, 2010 11:16 AM (w/gVZ)
Posted by: maverick muse at October 27, 2010 11:17 AM (H+LJc)
30 Reminds me of last March, out with the crowd in front of the Russell Office Building, chanting "Nancy! Come out and play-yay!..."
Posted by: Haiku Guy at October 27, 2010 03:04 PM (Bhe/R)
That was a lot of fun! It's a shame we won't have her scrawny behind around to kick after next Wednesday, but "for the good of the country" and all that ...
Posted by: ya2daup at October 27, 2010 11:18 AM (HmCnI)
Earl Blumenauer (D) gets surprised by Delia Lopez (R).
This is fucking Portland, OR, so my assumption is all the lefties are too stoned and too sloshed on Widmer and despairing of losing the House to vote.
But Oregon is all vote by mail, so I'm the one smoking pot here.
Posted by: fiatboomer at October 27, 2010 11:19 AM (0Wf6c)
Posted by: SaintGeorgeGentile at October 27, 2010 11:19 AM (+aTWk)
Posted by: hindmost at October 27, 2010 11:19 AM (BKlar)
S/Sgt. J.J. Sefton
Barracks 4
Posted by: SgtHulka at October 27, 2010 11:21 AM (fjVjU)
OMG PLEASE!
Posted by: Randy at October 27, 2010 11:22 AM (pFxVD)
Posted by: Iblis at October 27, 2010 11:22 AM (9221z)
Hey, at least Watkins is actually campaigning, unlike the dude who ran against Insleeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee the last two times (WTF was his name)?
Nobody is polling this and Inslee is being lazy (with that gubernatorial race on his mind), plus all the military voters in WA-1 should be motivated to vote against the Dem.
Dicks getting the boot from Fortress Bremertus would be awesome, but that would take divine intervention.
Posted by: fiatboomer at October 27, 2010 11:26 AM (0Wf6c)
Posted by: Randy at October 27, 2010 11:26 AM (zQKSr)
Posted by: Methos at October 27, 2010 11:28 AM (Ew1k4)
He "retired" right after the healthcare vote.
Posted by: Iblis at October 27, 2010 11:28 AM (9221z)
Posted by: fiatboomer at October 27, 2010 11:29 AM (0Wf6c)
Posted by: Randy at October 27, 2010 11:30 AM (zQKSr)
Posted by: Randy at October 27, 2010 03:26 PM (zQKSr)
He elected not too seek re-election. Dan Benishek (R), a physician from Crystal Falls in the Upper Peninsula is leading in the polls for the MI-01 race.
Say yah to the U. P., eh!
Posted by: ya2daup at October 27, 2010 11:31 AM (HmCnI)
Yeah, that's an interesting one. I didn't think it was possible, but recently Matheson started running negative campaign ads which always makes me wonder.
But I have not seen much of anything coming out of Philpot's campaign.
Posted by: Y-not at October 27, 2010 11:33 AM (UcOiF)
Posted by: Dfitz at October 27, 2010 11:34 AM (lsLK0)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2010 11:34 AM (9Cooa)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 27, 2010 11:35 AM (3iMgs)
Posted by: Blue Hen at October 27, 2010 02:57 PM (R2fpr)
This would have been my pick and I have already picked O'Donnell.
Instead I will say Rochelle "Shelley" Berkley will go down in Nevada's 1st to make the entire Nevada contingent in Congress Republican. (Dina Titus is already toast).
Posted by: Rocks at October 27, 2010 11:35 AM (Q1lie)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2010 11:35 AM (9Cooa)
Hey, it could happen.
The instructions were to predict something that nobody sees coming.
Posted by: thirteen28 at October 27, 2010 11:36 AM (s8N54)
I am a Hayes campaign volunteer. We are surging.
That dfitz is a bad mother--Shut your mouth! But I'm talkin' about dfitz.
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 27, 2010 11:37 AM (3iMgs)
Posted by: Tiko at October 27, 2010 11:38 AM (6OS3S)
Posted by: Average Jen at October 27, 2010 11:40 AM (mnNty)
Poll
Oct. 13: Inouye 53; Cavasso 40
Oct. 2: Inouye 65; Cavasso 29
Whether that's real movement or one of those polls is an outlier is unknown. This race is probably the least polled senate race in the country. Inouye is a long time incumbant and has been re-elected comfortably for decades. But...
A) The man is 88 years old. I suspect a lot of people don't want to re-elect a man who is almost certainly not going to out live his term. And this has been a very anti-establishment year - even in Hawaii.
B) Hawaii may be a democratic state, but it has elected plenty of Republicans in the past. And usually these Republicans can stay in power. This is why I said people should caution relegating Djou to a "temparary seat holder". Turns out now most pundits agree - and Djou is favored to win.
C) The governors race is extremely close, with Ambercombie just slightly ahead of Aiona and polling under 50%. And you can bet most of those polls are using a voter model based on 2008 numbers - where Hawaii's came out on masse to vote for a president from their state. This is a very different year, and republicans are fired up. I believe Aiona will win the Governors race, and that - along with a vast enthusiasm gap - might just be enough to put Cavasso over the top in the senate race.
Posted by: JC at October 27, 2010 11:41 AM (7PT3B)
Editor and fiatboom, we must live within spittin' distance from each other. Seeing Inslee beat would be so sweet.
Posted by: Traci at October 27, 2010 11:42 AM (7Xrig)
Posted by: chillin the most at October 27, 2010 11:42 AM (6IV8T)
Posted by: chillin the most at October 27, 2010 03:42 PM (6IV8T)
Are you in the U.P. or "down under"? I'm from Marquette.
Posted by: ya2daup at October 27, 2010 11:45 AM (HmCnI)
Posted by: David Simon at October 27, 2010 11:47 AM (s8N54)
Renee Ellmers over Bob 'Who Arrrr Yooo?' Etheridge in NC-2. Ellmers is a Tea Partier who's waging a well-financed spirited campaign against Etheridge, last seen on YouTube physically accosting a college journalist who had the audacity to ask him if he supported the Obama agenda. (Which he did, 97% of the time.)
Last time around I didn't know who the Republican running against ths moron was until I stepped inside the voting booth. This time, Ellmers has matched him with terrific TV ads and her roadside signs are all over the district. The district is 28% black and in 2008 they turned out in droves to vote for Obama. When I went into the polling place in Sanford I was an obvious minority voter. This time (early voting) there were only white voters casting ballots. The only poll I've seen was taken in June and had Ellmers up by 1%--a dead heat.
All this is anecdotal, but the much-heralded enthusiasm gulf seems to have taken hold in the district. If you can, send Renee a donation. The experts may have written her off but the view from the ground appears to contradict this conventional wisdom. After 2008 it's time to restore the honor of this one-time Red State.
Posted by: Ron Mitchell at October 27, 2010 11:48 AM (TvaNf)
Posted by: ya2daup at October 27, 2010 11:49 AM (HmCnI)
Posted by: Otis Criblecoblis at October 27, 2010 11:50 AM (kJXs1)
Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 27, 2010 11:50 AM (0Pl08)
Posted by: MJ at October 27, 2010 11:51 AM (BKOsZ)
Posted by: MaxMBJ at October 27, 2010 11:51 AM (0Pl08)
Posted by: unknown jane at October 27, 2010 11:51 AM (5/yRG)
Posted by: unknown jane at October 27, 2010 11:52 AM (5/yRG)
Stephen Bailey over Jared Polis (Colorado-2 including Boulder - heart of the lib-beast)! Bailey signs everywhere, very little for Polis. One poll 45 days ago had it as a 10 point spread.
Posted by: Gadsden at October 27, 2010 11:54 AM (3h1BF)
Posted by: Snoopy at October 27, 2010 11:55 AM (BKOsZ)
I'll say Palladino beats Cuomo for NY Gov.
It's not a house or senate seat but still thought to be a mortal lock
Posted by: Trump at October 27, 2010 11:57 AM (M7Awp)
Posted by: MJ at October 27, 2010 11:58 AM (BKOsZ)
Posted by: Trump at October 27, 2010 11:58 AM (M7Awp)
Posted by: Drew in MO at October 27, 2010 12:00 PM (R8S84)
Posted by: Iblis at October 27, 2010 12:00 PM (9221z)
McRibs and Slushies. Tastes like victory!
Posted by: Iblis at October 27, 2010 12:01 PM (9221z)
78 I'm not so sure Madigan will go down -- too many people see her as "tough on corruption" (yeah, I know...).
If anything, I've been advising D voters who won't switch to vote Green instead.
Posted by: unknown jane at October 27, 2010 12:02 PM (5/yRG)
I'm still seeing DCCC smear ads and RCCC response ads once in a while, so I think it's still a tight battle.
Posted by: Doc at October 27, 2010 12:04 PM (vt6D/)
Then I want to see him hooked to a centrifuge by his nostrils and spun until his bowels let go all over the Hollyweird pondscum leftists that have been annoying the shit outa me since Watergate.
Now, to me, that would be the Wave.
Posted by: jc at October 27, 2010 12:04 PM (ZNLu7)
Posted by: Olliander at October 27, 2010 12:05 PM (6uiF7)
Posted by: Olliander at October 27, 2010 12:07 PM (6uiF7)
Henry Waxman wrote the Cap & Trade bill, one of the most consequential pieces of legislation in U.S. history and has neither an understanding nor knowledge of what's in the bill. "I certainly don't claim to know everything that's in this bill," he said, "I relied on scientists." Unfortunately for the rest of us, thousands and thousands of scientists disagree with the junk science upon which Waxman relied (including scientists from the EPA).
Chuck Wilkerson, Waxman's opponent for Congress in California's 30th District, feels congressmen should have at least a modicum of understanding of the fields they legislate.Posted by: Michael Asher at October 27, 2010 12:07 PM (S2SMB)
Posted by: mpur in Texas (kicking Mexico's ass since 1836) at October 27, 2010 02:55 PM (plthz)
That's my entry as well. Loved CAC's Big Red Map this morning, because I think that's the first version I've seen with TX25 colored in red. In my county, Campbell signs are plastered all over. Big ones and little ones, rows of them in front of homes and businesses. I have seen one (1) Doggett sign. He's a gerrymandered and entrenched O-bot that I would love to get rid of. And there has been a ton of calls to my house, both campaigning and polling for Campbell. I haven't seen any poll results, but the people I talk to on the phone are super upbeat and optimistic.
Posted by: Mongerel at October 27, 2010 12:08 PM (YqWfw)
Posted by: Trump at October 27, 2010 03:58 PM (M7Awp)
Zip. Zero. Nada. Zed. Gonna grill some ribs on my own and settle in with the missus to watch the ocean of tears roll from Maine to Hawaii.
Posted by: ya2daup at October 27, 2010 12:09 PM (HmCnI)
I am in Marquette. Dan Benishek is having a rally in Alpena this weekend, and Herman Caine is the speaker.
Posted by: chillin the most at October 27, 2010 12:09 PM (6IV8T)
Yeah, that's an interesting one. I didn't think it was possible, but recently Matheson started running negative campaign ads which always makes me wonder.
But I have not seen much of anything coming out of Philpot's campaign.
Posted by: Y-not at October 27, 2010 03:33 PM (UcOiF)
It's kind of hard to get any positive coverage for a Republican out of the Salt Lake Trib.
Posted by: SaintGeorgeGentile at October 27, 2010 12:10 PM (+aTWk)
Some of you aren't playing by the rules... these are supposed to be upsets no one saw coming. Half of these guesses are not that unspoken of.
My guess: I'll throw out there Solomon Ortiz being upset by Blake Farenthold in TX-27.
Posted by: Abby Adams at October 27, 2010 12:10 PM (pLTLS)
Posted by: Brass at October 27, 2010 12:11 PM (v/Ofr)
Posted by: Steph at October 27, 2010 03:51 PM (ZfkPl)
That's not really an upset because the Republicans saw that Spratt was vulnerable this year and targetted him. But it is a gerrymandered Dem district so one has to wonder why he was vulnerable.
Could it be because he finally was perceived as a libtard tax and spender despite all the media hype about "blue dogs".
Posted by: Vic at October 27, 2010 12:12 PM (/jbAw)
Posted by: Redriverted at October 27, 2010 12:13 PM (F1WO+)
Posted by: Big Fat Meanie at October 27, 2010 12:14 PM (3iMgs)
Reasons include those mentioned by JC above, but also the dreaded Carter Effect where voters from a defeated party start walking away from the polls once it's clear their side has lost. Hawaii Dems will have seen the Red Wave long before it breaks on their shores.
Rasmussen had a post on 10/17 about the race: http://bit.ly/cq8mMh
A 13 point race for a 47 year incumbent? Hello Frank Church.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at October 27, 2010 12:15 PM (2MGtW)
Posted by: Abby Adams at October 27, 2010 04:10 PM (pLTLS)
Some of you aren't playing by the rules... 'cause we're morons, duh!
Solomon Ortiz? Blake Farenthold? Now you are just making up names here! ;-)
Posted by: ya2daup at October 27, 2010 12:15 PM (HmCnI)
Posted by: Dr. Eviler at October 27, 2010 12:16 PM (BxRqD)
http://tinyurl.com/24p4art He thinks the government should run the private sector
http://tinyurl.com/2aftsls He supported Fannie and Freddie along with Barney and signed a letter for it! http://tinyurl.com/2fpofm7
Marty Lamb will defeat Jim McGovern. I am calling and undecided independents are breaking for him 2 to 1 or better.
Posted by: bikeguy at October 27, 2010 12:17 PM (kYc9Y)
Posted by: ya2daup at October 27, 2010 12:17 PM (HmCnI)
Posted by: ya2daup at October 27, 2010 04:15 PM (HmCnI)
HA!
Posted by: Abby Adams at October 27, 2010 12:18 PM (pLTLS)
Posted by: Sondra B. at October 27, 2010 12:19 PM (VmrEg)
Posted by: mpur in Texas (kicking Mexico's ass since 1836) at October 27, 2010 02:55 PM</i>
Please please PLEASE let this one happen.
Posted by: Caiwyn at October 27, 2010 12:20 PM (ttktr)
Editor / Flatboomer,
I am going to have to pull rank and argue I get Inslee due to senority and Jay and my "special relationship". That office staff knows me by name and it starts with... "Its that pain in the ass shithead who keeps asking us questions that make us look like retards".
I have not put up with that dickhead for all of these years only to miss out on getting him in this contest because, I happened to be the only one of the 3 of us who was working at the time of the post.
Inslee is mine.
You got a problem with that, we can wrestle to decide in front of the Lenin statue in Fremont Nov. 2nd, 6 pm.
Posted by: AndrewsDad at October 27, 2010 12:20 PM (C2//T)
Posted by: Fallen Sparrow at October 27, 2010 02:51 PM (KGBoc)"
"I'm volunteering for Charles Lollar right now and predict that the upset of the season will be Charles sending Steny into the private sector. "to DC to make a billion dollars as a lobbyist"
FIFY
Posted by: curious at October 27, 2010 12:21 PM (p302b)
Posted by: Polly at October 27, 2010 12:21 PM (h5238)
Posted by: OhioCoastie at October 27, 2010 12:25 PM (9bmNV)
Posted by: frode at October 27, 2010 12:25 PM (fY/Qx)
Dingell -- out
Rangel has a good opponent in Harlem
Either of these going down to an opponent would be great in my opinion.
Posted by: Terry in GA at October 27, 2010 12:26 PM (oKgmZ)
Posted by: satx at October 27, 2010 12:27 PM (m8PQQ)
S/Sgt. J.J. Sefton
Barracks 4
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2010 03:10 PM (9Cooa)
Maybe he just wanted to steal our wire cutters. Did you ever think of that?
Posted by: TheQuietMan at October 27, 2010 12:27 PM (1Jaio)
Posted by: kwh9 at October 27, 2010 12:27 PM (YBypo)
Posted by: J.J. Sefton at October 27, 2010 12:30 PM (9Cooa)
Posted by: Deb at October 27, 2010 12:31 PM (WBsMy)
Posted by: Iblis at October 27, 2010 12:34 PM (9221z)
Posted by: Jeff at October 27, 2010 12:35 PM (Zku24)
Posted by: bman at October 27, 2010 12:35 PM (seDDj)
Posted by: DelD at October 27, 2010 12:37 PM (F//dr)
Posted by: Cu'Chulainn at October 27, 2010 12:39 PM (oW269)
Posted by: SouthCounty at October 27, 2010 12:40 PM (Qo+dP)
Posted by: pendejo grande at October 27, 2010 12:42 PM (L2fH9)
All I know is that it'll be nice to be able to show up at the polling place without having to get drunk first, like last time.
Mind you, I'll still get drunk first, but I don't feel like I have to.
Posted by: Hollowpoint at October 27, 2010 12:43 PM (plsiE)
Posted by: Mink Monica at October 27, 2010 12:47 PM (/ZYqS)
CO-1 Mike Fallon, Much like CO-2 with Polis, my evidence is completely anecdotal. Driving around town there isn't one DeGette sign to be seen. Everyone, even in the wealthy, deep blue neighborhoods, one can see a Bennet sign and a Fallon sign. I haven't seen any polls whatsoever on this one and a good reason is it's been held by a Republican for about 5 years of the last 100 (and 2 died in office)....
Posted by: Ibizakneel at October 27, 2010 12:49 PM (T7lSs)
Posted by: Smart Ass at October 27, 2010 12:50 PM (ICSy6)
O'Donnell must be within footstep range with Coons based solely on the number of negative add run by him in the Phila market.
I agree with with the Cavasso pick too.
Interesting thing is HI-1 and MD-1 are considered safe dem...I don't think they're safe at all.
Posted by: SJR2 at October 27, 2010 12:52 PM (oCbCP)
I know. And then I woke up.
A girl can dream, can't she? *rubs pudding into bra in anticipation*
Posted by: krukke1 at October 27, 2010 12:54 PM (7KLwM)
Are the polling companies using models from 2008 in their calculations? If so, there could be many surprises.
Posted by: SJR2 at October 27, 2010 12:56 PM (oCbCP)
Posted by: krukke1 at October 27, 2010 12:57 PM (7KLwM)
San Francisco Giants CA-8 over Texas Rangers Tx-6
Posted by: Smart Ass at October 27, 2010 04:50 PM (ICSy6)
Sorry, needs to be an upset to qualify.... and like always, the Dodgers still suck.
Posted by: AndrewsDad at October 27, 2010 01:00 PM (C2//T)
Secondary prediction: Joe Walsh plays "Life's Been Good To Me So Far" at his victory rally!
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at October 27, 2010 01:03 PM (f9c2L)
Dickless coward Russ Carnahan goes down to Ed Martin by 2-1/2 in Mo-3.
That cool $107 mil. his scumbag brother scammed from the stimulous (which Dickless voted for) for the family "windfarm" is going to choke his ass.
Posted by: rickinstl at October 27, 2010 01:03 PM (0AEWQ)
We have a party scheduled for Nov. 2 in an undisclosed location in Fremont. I'm not going to divulge how many are attending, because I don't want to hurt the feelings of the CT Cabal. They're sensitive 'n shit.
If you want details, email me pajamahadeen at hotmail dot com. Just had a cancellation that opened up a spot in the roster. Yeah - it's so packed I had to stop taking requests.
Posted by: Editor at October 27, 2010 01:06 PM (pUfK9)
Posted by: ewb at October 27, 2010 01:07 PM (r0iue)
Stewart and Colbert draw over 500,000 to D.C. this weekend . . .
and it doesn 't do a damn thing to help the Dems on November 2!
Posted by: Z as in Jersey at October 27, 2010 01:08 PM (kZT4X)
Posted by: ewb at October 27, 2010 05:07 PM (r0iue)
Finally, someone took it. Whoohoo!
Posted by: Editor at October 27, 2010 01:09 PM (pUfK9)
Posted by: Right Wing Jew at October 27, 2010 01:11 PM (Qc55J)
I will predict Bennett will defeat Buck in CO in the closest Senate contest.
Posted by: Greg at October 27, 2010 01:12 PM (huyI8)
Posted by: Right Wing Jew at October 27, 2010 01:12 PM (Qc55J)
Posted by: Purple Rain at October 27, 2010 01:12 PM (VWhPF)
krukke1, if you're rubbing pudding into your bra, I'll gladly give you Demos over Ellison. I can find another upset special -- and some more pudding.
How 'bout whoever the Republican chick is over Betty! "Al Qaeda's no longer a threat and our nation's no longer under God" McCollum in MN 4.
Posted by: notropis at October 27, 2010 01:16 PM (p7965)
Mallamut,
Truth be told, I may be overly optimistic. I'm judging by the number of signs & bumperstickers I see in StL city & county. Those run around 10-1 for Martin.
Who knows what's happening in Jefferson county? I don't get down there much, so I'm really in the dark.
Keep a good thought.
And yeah, I only read the PD sports & comics.
Where are you on the East Side?
Posted by: rickinstl at October 27, 2010 01:18 PM (0AEWQ)
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 27, 2010 01:18 PM (NjYDy)
Posted by: Mahon at October 27, 2010 01:20 PM (u2LdQ)
Few pundits have mentioned Collin Peterson losing in MN-7 and I haven't seen any polls. It's a +6 Republican district and he voted for Cap N Trade. Worse still, he now tries to weasel out of it by saying he only supported the bill in order to insert language improving provisions effecting farmers.
In the last two years Peterson has twice insulted the voters back home. Last year he told a reporter that he didn't hold townhall meeting because 25% of the voters in his district believe 9/11 was an inside job. Then just last month he told another reporter that if people back home didn't watch the national news they wouldn't be so upset about the state of the economy.
Posted by: NC Mountain Girl at October 27, 2010 01:22 PM (egvkg)
They're having down-ticket troubles there in House races and the Governor's race. Depending on the turnout percentages, especially since black voters are less likely to vote this year, victories by former Gov. Erlich and others could drag Wargotz over the finish line despite Mikluski polling solidly ahead. (Frankly, I don't think "likely voter" models in heavily Dem states like Maryland will be particularly accurate come Election Day.)
I really wish this were true. But Ehrlich is going down here in Maryland, and if he can't beat O'Malley then there's no way in hell that Wargotz will approach Mikulski. Lollar has a much better chance of winning in MD-5 (and he doesn't really have much chance) than Wargotz does of beating Mikulski.
Look, I'm from Montgomery County...if you don't live around this area, it's really quite impossible for me to convey *just* how overwhelmingly and partisanly democratic this region is. Remember, nearly everyone around here is a federal government employee . Also: the electorate is 33% African-American. Now you can talk all you want about how the AA vote won't turn out heavily in a non-election year, but still...the math never adds up.
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 27, 2010 01:23 PM (NjYDy)
A real, real reach for us (it's a D+11 district and he hasn't had any high-profile scandals or attention given to him) but I think it can happen. Michigan is going to be an utter bloodbath for the Democrats this year, the perfect-est of perfect storms, and the wave might be locally higher there than in many other states.
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 27, 2010 01:25 PM (NjYDy)
Westchester County makes up a large portion of this district, and it went pretty hard R in 2009. Lowey won by 30 two years ago. She has done minimal campaigning, the electorate is pissed at the Dems, and I don't think she's realized yet. This is my 2010 "holy shit, I can't believe ____ got dethroned seat!" call.
Posted by: mugiwara at October 27, 2010 01:29 PM (KI/Ch)
Posted by: SJR2 at October 27, 2010 01:36 PM (oCbCP)
217 I'm with those calling for an O'Donnell win.
I'm really starting to believe this.
Why else is Coons calling for Palin to come in to Delaware to campaign for COD? http://tinyurl.com/27o6pcp
He must think she will do a lot of damage to COD. But what does he care, if he's that far ahead in the polls?
Those internals must be much closer than we are bing led to believe.
Posted by: Marybeth at October 27, 2010 01:40 PM (hBRoa)
My rep (Steve King ) has like a 75% approval rating...
Posted by: American Dawg at October 27, 2010 01:41 PM (o/IYz)
Posted by: SukieTawdry at October 27, 2010 01:42 PM (A+hUh)
Posted by: SukieTawdry at October 27, 2010 01:47 PM (A+hUh)
Posted by: SukieTawdry at October 27, 2010 05:42 PM (A+hUh)
Ok, as a Jets fan, I've learned that I musn't ever let my hopes rise too high, but if Faulkner can knock off Rangel, well then I'm just gonna say it:
Your 2011 Super Bowl Champions,
The New York Jets!!!!
Posted by: mugiwara at October 27, 2010 01:52 PM (KI/Ch)
Posted by: SJR2
Aren't there are about 7 Democratic governorships actually not up for election this year? Going 36 for 39 in 2010 might be a tad bit difficult for the Republicans.
However, I do like your optimism. Go git 'em Tiger.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at October 27, 2010 02:04 PM (2MGtW)
So now my pick is Len Britton (R) over Pat Leahy (D). If that happens, I will get drunker than Jim Lahey on payday.
Posted by: MrCaniac at October 27, 2010 02:11 PM (oREHE)
Posted by: Stan at October 27, 2010 02:16 PM (N1Gru)
Posted by: Jim Treacher at October 27, 2010 02:19 PM (WuMZ3)
Posted by: Hazchic at October 27, 2010 02:32 PM (Xzvqb)
Doesn't count. That race is on everyone's radar now -- everyone thinks it's competitive. Same with Dingell and Frank. You need to pick a race that either a.) nobody is talking about whatsoever; b.) the Republican is so far down in the polls that a win would be flabbergasting (OR-SEN, DE-SEN, NY-GOV, either NY-SEN race, for example).
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 27, 2010 02:34 PM (NjYDy)
B.J. Lawson, District 4-NC. Been in Durham for a year and this place is scary blue. Something tells me the Dems think Price has this locked up so tight they may as well stay home. That will be their downfall.
Posted by: Ken James at October 27, 2010 02:36 PM (w91MW)
I'll go with NY-8 Jerrold Nadler loses to Susan Kone. It would no doubt be one of the greatest election defeats in our history, but why not. Nadler has been there for 18 years preceeded by 16 years in the State Assembly. He's for the Ground Zero Mosque, voted against the Patriot Act, and whants Khalid Sheikh Mohammed tried in NYC. (His district includes Ground Zero).
There was also a post from ACE a couple of weeks ago mentioning that a Democratic Congressman who was thought absolutely safe is not at all according to internal polls conducted by Repubs. He also hinted that the candidate was "Bigger than a Breadbox." I don't know if he ment figuratively or literally, but Nadler fits either one!
Posted by: Moe Larry and Axelrod at October 27, 2010 02:38 PM (TXNe7)
A real, real reach for us (it's a D+11 district and he hasn't had any high-profile scandals or attention given to him) but I think it can happen. Michigan is going to be an utter bloodbath for the Democrats this year, the perfect-est of perfect storms, and the wave might be locally higher there than in many other states.
Posted by: Jeff B. at October 27, 2010 05:25 PM (NjYDy)
They said to pick an upset nobody saw coming. It's just a gut feeling. I live in the district and even democrats are pissed at the way Obama and congress has run things. Plus John Kupiec is a good candidate.
Posted by: Gilgamesh at October 27, 2010 02:38 PM (NNfS2)
Posted by: Geronimo at October 27, 2010 02:55 PM (Vt+Kg)
Posted by: Geronimo at October 27, 2010 02:55 PM (Vt+Kg)
Posted by: Francase at October 27, 2010 03:09 PM (6Ow3M)
232 I'll go with NY-8 Jerrold Nadler loses to Susan Kone.
Looooove to see Nadler lose. Fat piece of crap.
Posted by: Abby Adams at October 27, 2010 03:18 PM (pLTLS)
Posted by: Joffen at October 27, 2010 03:29 PM (MQLdE)
Posted by: Gnostic Surface at October 27, 2010 03:39 PM (rxIUM)
Posted by: Dave J. at October 27, 2010 03:48 PM (DCQ0q)
Polls showing Blumy up 10??? No fucking way. McMahon is running a smart campgin is is going to drive ton of folk to to polls to vote straight R.
Posted by: Mr. Pissy Pants at October 27, 2010 03:53 PM (STTZD)
Posted by: Palandine at October 27, 2010 04:17 PM (g7D8V)
Posted by: Dave J. at October 27, 2010 04:25 PM (DCQ0q)
John Oberstar gets to take a seat down at the old folks home in Chisholm where he should have gone a long time ago. (MN-
.Kirk takes The Holy Seat of Teh Won (Illinois US Senate).
Posted by: Nahanni at October 27, 2010 04:51 PM (S4wMM)
Posted by: Kingpin at October 27, 2010 04:57 PM (d6q5V)
Posted by: An Observation at October 27, 2010 04:57 PM (ylhEn)
Jay Townsend defeats Chuckie Cheese Schumer in NY Senate race..
wouldnt it be loverly!
Posted by: ginaswo at October 27, 2010 05:14 PM (e7qN0)
Posted by: Enemy_of_the_Statist at October 27, 2010 05:27 PM (+/kur)
I'd jokingly say John Dennis over Nancy Pelosi, but even in Dreamland that's crazy.
So I'll go with... Sean Bielat over Barney Frank.
Yes, it's been talked up a lot, but everything (as expected) has been swinging for Frank. I'd be happily surprised if this flips for the GOP.
Posted by: John P L at October 27, 2010 05:30 PM (E8LfO)
Posted by: Dexter McCluster at October 27, 2010 05:31 PM (GftA2)
Posted by: ExExZonie at October 27, 2010 06:07 PM (gZHvI)
Just caught him complaining bitterly to the Austin Chronicle that all the people of color in East Austin were not showing up like he needs em to. He was also lamenting the massive early voter turnout in the more conservative suburbs like Dripping Springs and Georgetown. For the first time since he was elected some two decades ago, he's having to actually buy some "TV time".. Can you imagine? "You mean I cant haz congressmans seat for life? But...But.. This is Austin....... AUSTIN.!!"
Posted by: hansbrix at October 27, 2010 06:37 PM (Q3HFR)
Posted by: MathMom at October 27, 2010 06:58 PM (rzDzT)
Hillary Clinton decides on Wednesday Nov 3 that she needs to spend more time with her family...
Oh and Frank Pallone shows up for work in January after basically mailing it in this campaign season (he's not campaigning and nowhere to be found, nor could you find a Pallone lawn sign anywhere in the district to save your life) to find out that his desk has been cleared out to make room for... Anna Little in NJ-6. This is a popular one from previous comments - it'd be very, very satisfying.
Posted by: Chelsea Hubbell at October 27, 2010 07:04 PM (hufnV)
Posted by: MathMom at October 27, 2010 07:21 PM (rzDzT)
Posted by: jstjoan at October 27, 2010 07:25 PM (rngtZ)
Posted by: Zoltan at October 27, 2010 07:44 PM (8ebkW)
Posted by: someone out there at October 27, 2010 07:57 PM (AiZsK)
Posted by: rdbrewer at October 27, 2010 03:05 PM (0ZnGu)
Oh my stars. If this happens I will eat the pudding in your cup. Happily. Smiling the whole time.
Posted by: someone out there at October 27, 2010 08:02 PM (AiZsK)
Posted by: Michael Bates at October 27, 2010 08:14 PM (hNQ5i)
An inspiration to us all
Posted by: SaintGeorgeGentile at October 27, 2010 08:42 PM (+aTWk)
Posted by: I Aim to Misbehave at October 27, 2010 11:42 PM (gSAHk)
Scott Kirkland (R) over Mike Honda (D) in CA-15.
Thats a big part of Silicon Valley down to the Garlic Capital of the World, Gilroy.
Posted by: Whitehall at October 28, 2010 07:49 AM (FmPSC)
Posted by: Napoleon at October 28, 2010 08:10 AM (KUSbc)
I am going for the prediction based on overall quantity.
Massachusetts will have 5 of their 10 congressional seats go to Republicans.
Bilat, Hudak, Golnik, Perry .....and Wesley!
And, during the upcoming redistricting....it will be easier to re-draw districts so that they lose a Democrat district than it will be for them to lose one of the newly won Republican Districts.
Posted by: steve at October 28, 2010 11:31 AM (nd0uY)
Posted by: Ben at October 28, 2010 03:25 PM (84qYT)
BeAt BoXeR ~ PuNk PeLoSi !
Posted by: Jeff at October 30, 2010 12:05 AM (buxCw)
Posted by: sikiþ izle at March 02, 2011 11:29 AM (2tUx5)
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Posted by: frode at October 27, 2010 10:49 AM (TdgA9)