May 04, 2010
— Ace Don't worry too much -- Rubio crawled his way up from a far worse deficit before.
And half of that was just name recognition -- Crist had all of it, Rubio little. Now, Rubio got his name recognition going in the hotly contested Republican primary, but there are a fair number of Floridians who haven't engaged with Rubio yet. Everyone knows Crist, but not everyone knows Rubes. Yet.
Plus -- this is probably just mostly an announcement bounce:
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Crist earning 38% support to Republican Marco RubioÂ’s 34% and Democrat Kendrick MeekÂ’s 17%. Eleven percent (11%) are undecided.Two weeks ago, before Crist announced his decision to run as an independent candidate, Rubio held a seven point advantage in the race.
Since then, Crist has gained eight (
percentage points in the poll while Rubio and Meek have each dropped three (3) points. It remains to be seen if this is a temporary bounce or a lasting change in the race.
One problem here, though, is that as of yet, Crist appears to be a viable candidate -- and if he's viable, his support goes way up. That is, he garners not just the people who strongly prefer him, but those who weakly prefer him.
If he looks like a loser -- if a vote cast for Crist looks like a wasted vote -- he immediately sheds all those weak-preference voters, who move on to their second choice, and a fair number of the strong-preference voters, too.
Plus, if he makes Meeks the non-viable candidate, than most of Meeks' supporters desert him for Crist, for the same don't-want-to-waste-a-vote reason.
38% is Crist's high-water mark. His final number will be lower. If he starts to slip at all, it will end up being a lot lower.
Posted by: Ace at
11:49 AM
| Comments (34)
Post contains 319 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: Charlie Beta Carotene Crist at May 04, 2010 11:55 AM (udLJM)
Posted by: mohamed at May 04, 2010 11:56 AM (Rb259)
Posted by: Vic at May 04, 2010 11:57 AM (QrA9E)
I'd be curious to know how Floridians poll on the AZ immigration bill.
Esp in light of how that bill concerns Rubio. (the bill he apparently didn't read).
Posted by: laceyunderalls at May 04, 2010 11:57 AM (VVyl1)
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at May 04, 2010 11:58 AM (udLJM)
Posted by: sifty at May 04, 2010 12:01 PM (yNQp7)
@4 I think you are correct. Too dramatic a swing, especially after his defection to the Party of Charlie.
Posted by: Dang Straights at May 04, 2010 12:01 PM (fx8sm)
Posted by: Mjim at May 04, 2010 03:59 PM (mMdWG)
Drats! I went to your link and it was Gibbs giving a stupid, lying presser. I was hoping to see him spread eagle on the floor!
Posted by: runningrn at May 04, 2010 12:02 PM (CfmlF)
Posted by: runningrn at May 04, 2010 12:03 PM (CfmlF)
Posted by: snapdragon at May 04, 2010 12:11 PM (5Etcj)
the good thing about debates is they have a way of sorting these things out...
unless you're Kerry Healy, of course.
Posted by: Injun Joe at May 04, 2010 12:13 PM (uFokq)
It's unpredictable. Crist is scum and has no honor. He knows he is breaking faith. I hope that's enough to completely end his career, but it's not. He could very well win the seat.
Posted by: Sentient Nintendo 64 at May 04, 2010 12:18 PM (dUOK+)
Besides, there's six months of opportune time for Crist's foot to end up in his mouth.
Posted by: SlaveDog at May 04, 2010 12:19 PM (H6Jyg)
Florida is not a sane world, and we have no idea what will happen.
Posted by: Sentient Nintendo 64 at May 04, 2010 12:31 PM (dUOK+)
Posted by: buzz at May 04, 2010 12:31 PM (kwhut)
@#4. No, it's not a bad poll. It's quite probably accurate, seeing as Crist bought himself an ASSLOAD of teacher's (and their families') votes with his veto of SB6. Simple math, but assuredly a 'dead cat bounce'. One, because Charlie's innate weasel-ness will reassert itself in the natural course of things. Secondly ~ and this could truly, truly be the most intriguing thing we've been hearing ~ apparently the veto that bringeth such gifts could well bite him in the ass. It seems part of the reason for some of the bill's provisions were to satisfy requirements for accepting the very stimulus money he's been villified for promoting. Since he vetoed the thing, the requirements haven't been met, setting up the scenario where the money doesn't appear and about 42,000 Florida teachers (give or take) get laid off. They're gonna LOVE him for THAT.
Posted by: tree hugging sister at May 04, 2010 12:46 PM (RAqf7)
Posted by: Hoover at May 04, 2010 01:01 PM (sD7bS)
Posted by: naturalfake at May 04, 2010 01:11 PM (+kzvp)
Posted by: GulfCoastTider at May 04, 2010 01:14 PM (bv1hq)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at May 04, 2010 01:16 PM (ucxC/)
Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at May 04, 2010 01:17 PM (GEP+o)
I blame the DC GOP especially that Cornyn dude for preselecting a candidate before the residents decide whom they want.
By the way, is steele campaigning for whom?
Posted by: Serfer62 at May 04, 2010 01:38 PM (HLCnI)
Not that this Congress cares much about the Constitution, but such action would have some serious Article 1, Section 9 problems:
No Bill of Attainder or ex post facto Law shall be passed.
Posted by: GulfCoastTider at May 04, 2010 05:28 PM (bv1hq)
This is Crist's peak and he has nowhere to go but down. Nobody here is clamoring for this guy. Except Crist himself.
Posted by: Leonard Pinth-Garnell at May 04, 2010 06:17 PM (PtuJp)
Took a sure-win Republican Senate seat and made it competitive!
Heckuva job, Brownie!
Hey, that's the way to get 51 Republican senators.
Shit.
Posted by: sanssoucy at May 04, 2010 09:50 PM (Iq+yI)
Posted by: prada sneakers at May 25, 2011 04:56 PM (JnuzG)
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Posted by: Mjim at May 04, 2010 11:51 AM (mMdWG)