September 01, 2010

Rasmussen: Nation's Partisan Split at... 1.2%
— Ace

This isn't unprecedented, but Rasmussen hasn't found it this close since 2005, which was, I guess, the peak of post-9/11 Republican affiliation before the steep drop off which followed.

It's good. It's good.

In August, 35.0% of American Adults identified themselves as Democrats. ThatÂ’s down nearly half a percentage point from a month ago and is the smallest percentage of Democrats ever recorded in nearly eight years of monthly tracking.

At the same time, the number of Republicans grew in August to 33.8%. ThatÂ’s up two full percentage points from the month before and the largest number of Republicans recorded in 2010.

As has been the case in every month over the past eight years of tracking, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation. The gap is currently 1.2 percentage points. ThatÂ’s the closest the Republicans have been to parity in more than five years, since July 2005.

ItÂ’s also the smallest gap between the parties heading into any of the recent campaign seasons....

The biggest advantage ever measured for Democrats was 10.1 percentage points in May 2008. In December 2008, the final full month of the Bush administration, the Democrats held an 8.8-percentage-point advantage.

Even with that 8.8% advantage, in a huge-turnout-for-energized-Democrats year, they could only parlay that to a 4% or 5% advantage in actual votes.

What happens when it's at parity? Wonderful things, wonderful things.

From Captain Ed, who notes that this gets at one of his pet peeves -- the seven, eight, ten, eleven point Democrat advantage "mainstream" media pollsters tend to build into their "forecasts." (Actually -- wishcasts.)


Random Rassmussen Good News: Pennsylvania Governor's contest moves to "Solid GOP," even though currently held by D.

Posted by: Ace at 02:08 PM | Comments (104)
Post contains 294 words, total size 2 kb.

1 More important, Independents are breaking hard to the GOP.

Posted by: nickless at September 01, 2010 02:09 PM (MMC8r)

2

woo hoo, we're riding dirty!

Posted by: bondwing plover at September 01, 2010 02:10 PM (uFokq)

3 But, but, but...didn't "Poppin' Fresh" tell you that, in fairness, we have to examine the crosstabs, palpate the gramnifactor and derive a spiffy graph out of this data?

Posted by: MrScribbler at September 01, 2010 02:13 PM (Ulu3i)

4 Let's not count chickens, but this November promises to be ball-dippingly delicious.

Posted by: Ombudsman at September 01, 2010 02:13 PM (c1oyg)

5 we must redouble our efforts!

Posted by: Bob T at September 01, 2010 02:14 PM (SzKHs)

6 Newsweek calls bullshit.

Also, they need five bucks for cab fare.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at September 01, 2010 02:14 PM (NvFZs)

7
Even if we win both House and Senate, without a radical rewrite of the Civil Service Rules, the same entrenched bureaucrats that created this mess will still be in power. 

We must not only elect good conservatives, but those with the will to radically alter Civil Service and defy Federal Judges who declare the rewrite unconstitutional.  

Posted by: Fish at September 01, 2010 02:15 PM (v1gw3)

8 Okay.

Looks good.

What percentage are self-identifying as American Taliban?

I hear that's what the cool kids are self-identifying as.

Posted by: BumperStickerist at September 01, 2010 02:15 PM (Hj0nA)

9 Vodka gimlets for everyone!

Posted by: Drinky Crow at September 01, 2010 02:15 PM (mAm+G)

10 1 More important, Independents are breaking hard to the GOP.

And there are a lot more of them than there were even in 2005, and tons more than in 1994 (the most obvious yardstick for comparison of these generic partisan-ID polls), which means that even comparisons to the partisan splits of the past may understate just how deep down in the cauldron of shit the Democrats are.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 02:15 PM (57AGg)

11

Rasmeinreichstagmueller!?!?

You can't believe him, he's almost as evil as BooshCheney.

Posted by: Subaru Dad at September 01, 2010 02:17 PM (XaxHG)

12 Even if we win both House and Senate, without a radical rewrite of the Civil Service Rules, the same entrenched bureaucrats that created this mess will still be in power. 

We must not only elect good conservatives, but those with the will to radically alter Civil Service and defy Federal Judges who declare the rewrite unconstitutional. 

fify

Don't let the Perfect become the enemy of the Good.

Posted by: BumperStickerist at September 01, 2010 02:17 PM (Hj0nA)

13 As long as our candidates don't do anything to come across as lunatics, this could be an historic year.  Please, don't do anything to scare the independents- no birther/ repeal the 14th and 17th amendments stuff, please.  Repeat after me -Economy. Deficit. National Security.... Economy...Deficit...National Security.

Posted by: Ombudsman at September 01, 2010 02:18 PM (c1oyg)

14 This is an especially vital election cycle, when it comes to the effort to throw out the RINOs.  There has never been a better chance for the Right to get in whoever we damn well please.  It will be a glorious victory, a day to be long remembered.  There is no need to go out of our way to pander to the squishes this time.  Down with the RINOs!

Posted by: Reactionary at September 01, 2010 02:18 PM (4nbyM)

15

 

I've got a report due on space.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at September 01, 2010 02:18 PM (QMtmy)

16

I've got a report due on space.

It's the Final Frontier.

 

Posted by: garrett at September 01, 2010 02:20 PM (XaxHG)

17 "I hear that's what the cool kids are self-identifying as." When I was in college, all the cool kids identified as "Can voting get you high, make you sandwiches or get you laid?"

Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at September 01, 2010 02:21 PM (wd0Iq)

18 O/T: I'm too lazy to read through all the comments for past several days. Can anyone tell ne WTF is up with this blogs.america.gov/obama graffiti that's plastered all over the freakin' place (here, HA, and a good many other conservative blogs)!?

Posted by: NM Hick at September 01, 2010 02:21 PM (Avspz)

19 I'll be double dipping in my pudding when we take the Gov. and Spectors old seat. Finally seeing Corbett ads running, lost of toomey ads running, cant wait to vote.

Posted by: sliderblaze at September 01, 2010 02:21 PM (Jesjh)

20 Dicks, sucking, not yet.  You all know the drill.

Posted by: Cicero at September 01, 2010 02:21 PM (QKKT0)

21 Dang! ne = me

Posted by: NM Hick at September 01, 2010 02:22 PM (Avspz)

22 I've been wondering why Ed Rendell has been keeping his yap closed lately.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at September 01, 2010 02:23 PM (ib45C)

23

Dicks, sucking, not yet.  You all know the drill.

Oh, I know the dick sucking drill. 

Buzzkill.

Posted by: Barney Frank at September 01, 2010 02:24 PM (XaxHG)

24
Not seeking perfection, but at least an understanding by the elected that the real issue is entrenched polliwogs, and until they are denied, they will continue to run the country.

Many a bureaucrat has commented: "elected officials come and go, but we are here forever."


Posted by: Fish at September 01, 2010 02:24 PM (v1gw3)

25 But Intrade has the Dems up by 20%!!!!!!!!!!



What? You thought I was asleep or something?

Posted by: In before the troll at September 01, 2010 02:25 PM (P9+0W)

26 Pennsylvania's governorship has swapped parties like clockwork every eight years since at least the early '50s.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 02:25 PM (57AGg)

27 O/T:  How come brett baier never includes "all of the above" in his text to vote pole?

Posted by: curious at September 01, 2010 02:27 PM (p302b)

28 This trend is looking fabulous, I must say...

However:

House  +45-50, Senate, +8-9 and no cigar.

There I stand, and will remain until Nov. 2. I would love to be humbled on that day.

Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at September 01, 2010 02:28 PM (juvbI)

29 Well, since Odouchebag outlawed the sale of Korean-era M1s and M1A1s, I'm going to just have to buy a few more AKs, SKSs, and some M4 clones.

Is this fucker the dumbest man to ever be President?

Rhetorical question, Netterman, take a lap.

Posted by: tangonine at September 01, 2010 02:28 PM (C8Pcc)

30 We're All Douchebags Now

Posted by: Newsweek at September 01, 2010 02:28 PM (RZBAV)

31

We've heard since the day the holy one of Washington was elected that once we saw, once we read, once we reflected, once we understood, that our attitude would change.

Well what happened is that the wrong people finally saw, read, reflected and understood that the key word in the failed experiment of socialism is failed, and no amount of virtuosity at teleprompter reading can change the reality of failure.

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at September 01, 2010 02:29 PM (r1h5M)

32 Bring it on!

Posted by: Barry F'in Obama at September 01, 2010 02:29 PM (SwEJs)

33 Brett Baier is only slightly less annoying than shepard smith.

Posted by: tangonine at September 01, 2010 02:29 PM (C8Pcc)

34 Call off your on-bringers!

Posted by: Barry F'in Obama at September 01, 2010 02:30 PM (SwEJs)

35

I've got a report due on space.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at September 01, 2010 06:18 PM (QMtmy)

If you can use some handy facts about major muslim contributions to space exploration, please call our toll-free hotline.

Posted by: Charles Bolden, NASA Chief at September 01, 2010 02:30 PM (QKKT0)

36

Posted by: Reactionary at September 01, 2010 06:18 PM (4nbyM)

True, and that was my philosophy, but primaries are pretty much wrapping up, so time to pick the R or merely reject the D, as the case may be.

Posted by: Randy at September 01, 2010 02:30 PM (zQKSr)

37

I've got a report due on space.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at September 01, 2010 06:18 PM (QMtmy)


It's big.  Really big.

Posted by: nickless at September 01, 2010 02:32 PM (MMC8r)

38

Well hey, this Independent (who always votes Rep) has only voted in Presidential generals, but is going to vote Rep in congressional midterms.  In Florida.

FWIW 

Posted by: Burn the Witch at September 01, 2010 02:34 PM (fLHQe)

39 Forget this crap.  Moochelle is hosting a dance festival in the WH next week.  And you unwashed proles aren't invited.  (Neither am I.)

Posted by: Jane D'oh at September 01, 2010 02:35 PM (UOM48)

40 I want to see the new republican House Speaker rip that fucking gavel out of Nan's curled fists and relegate her travels to a Greyhound bus.  

Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 02:35 PM (a0r+q)

41 #37  It's big.  Really big.

That's what she said.

Alas, space is also really, really empty.  Only thing emptier than space is the average moonbat's head.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 01, 2010 02:37 PM (c0A3e)

42 Well, since Odouchebag outlawed the sale of Korean-era M1s and M1A1s, I'm going to just have to buy a few more AKs, SKSs, and some M4 clones.

Is this fucker the dumbest man to ever be President?



As much as I'd love to see those Garands and Carbines hit the marketplace, for serious use, ammo availability is a hell of a lot better for AKs, SKSs and M4gerys.

Which also illustrates how stupid these idiots are. They're actually worried about flooding the market with rifles chambered for cartridges that aren't particularly plentiful anymore. That whole supply/demand thing must really make their heads hurt.

Did you see that it was 700,000 Carbines!?!? *drool*

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 01, 2010 02:38 PM (P9+0W)

43 I want to see the new republican House Speaker rip that fucking gavel out of Nan's curled fists and relegate her travels to a Greyhound bus an unmanned drone.

FIFY

Posted by: Jane D'oh at September 01, 2010 02:39 PM (UOM48)

44 42 IllTempered Cur,

add in the prospect of that number of carbines making it more likely there will be replica IR scopes for an M-3 carbine and it is double drool.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 02:40 PM (kq1lG)

45 All indications are still for a drubbing of the Dems this fall.

Posted by: Vic at September 01, 2010 02:42 PM (/jbAw)

46 @18 Answered my own question about blogs.america.gov with a little Bing search action: The “Dot Gov” Scandal: Taxpayer funded propagandaGod, isn't there anything this administration does that doesn't bring my blood to a boil!?

Posted by: NM Hick at September 01, 2010 02:42 PM (Avspz)

47 Let's not start sucking each others' dicks yet...

Posted by: Mr Church at September 01, 2010 02:42 PM (oQIfB)

48 Did you see that it was 700,000 Carbines!?!? *drool*

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 01, 2010 06:38 PM (P9+0W)


Link please!!!

Posted by: Mr Church at September 01, 2010 02:44 PM (oQIfB)

49 Many a bureaucrat has commented: "elected officials come and go, but we are here forever." Posted by: Fish at September 01, 2010 06:24 PM (v1gw3) The career bureaucrats at the State Dept. refer to the elected/appointed officials there as "the seasonal help".

Posted by: Nighthawk at September 01, 2010 02:44 PM (dF6Eh)

50 Joel Pollak is the uphill battle fighter Republican in IL-9. He had a luncheon today with Paul Ryan that raised over $100k for him. Well, the campaign manager for Jan Scjafkjdasklf, the Democratic Incumbant, snuck in. Joel politely called him on it and thanked him for attending, and he promptly got up and sulked out. Good to have candidates in districts they usually have no shot in having some real balls.

Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 02:46 PM (lV4Fs)

51 All indications are still for a drubbing of the Dems this fall.

Posted by: Vic at September 01, 2010 06:42 PM (/jbAw)

Word. I'm still waiting for the October Surprise(s) that will be a massive backfire for the Dems.

Posted by: ErikW at September 01, 2010 02:46 PM (RZBAV)

52 At the same time, the number of Republicans grew in August to 33.8%. ThatÂ’s up two full percentage points from the month before and the largest number of Republicans recorded in 2010.

That's probably the best news in the article -- it means that voters are choosing the GOP and not just rejecting the Democrat Party.

Posted by: stuiec at September 01, 2010 02:46 PM (5UP6n)

53
The Kraut's up next for a little profundity on liberal prevarication, obstruction of justice, and malfeasance.

Posted by: Fish at September 01, 2010 02:48 PM (v1gw3)

54 But, what does Frank Luntz say?

Posted by: HornetSting at September 01, 2010 02:48 PM (h9YJZ)

55 45 All indications are still for a drubbing of the Dems this fall.

Lord, I hope so.  I want to believe.  Seeing Miller-time last night, even when I missed the dipping, was a great morale boast. 

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 01, 2010 02:50 PM (c0A3e)

56 I don't like Bill Krystal.

Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 02:51 PM (a0r+q)

57 #52 
That's probably the best news in the article -- it means that voters are choosing the GOP and not just rejecting the Democrat Party.

In spite of the higher-ups in the RNC doing some of the dumbest things - that's even better news.

Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 01, 2010 02:52 PM (c0A3e)

58 45 All indications are still for a drubbing of the Dems this fall.

No question.  But like I said earlier, on September 1, 2008, McCain was leading in the key battleground states and had all the momentum...

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 02:53 PM (57AGg)

59

Word. I'm still waiting for the October Surprise(s) that will be a massive backfire for the Dems.

Posted by: ErikW at September 01, 2010 06:46 PM (RZBAV)

There have been some reports that Obozo is hoping to gin up some of that "rally 'round the Commander in Chief" voter sentiment by launching an invasion of Greenland.

Posted by: Cicero at September 01, 2010 02:55 PM (QKKT0)

60 I've got a report due on space.

That is so 1999.


Posted by: Commander John Koenig at September 01, 2010 02:56 PM (f0UXf)

61 58 WUDS,

yeah and then they triggered the implosion and the people blamed the party in power....

while creating a 300+billion dollar loss in the NYSE to get your candidate a few extra points may be fun especially if the geritoloholic your opponent is running stops the campaign not once but twice they try that little stunt again and oddly Bury'll get the blame along with the Ds not the GOP.

Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 02:56 PM (kq1lG)

62 Posted by: Mr Church at September 01, 2010 06:44 PM (oQIfB)




Lost the link. Trying to track it down now, but IIRC the breakdown was something like 80-90k of Garands with over 700k of Carbines.

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 01, 2010 02:57 PM (P9+0W)

63 I don't like Bill Krystal.

Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 06:51 PM (a0r+q)

I call him Sardonicus.

Posted by: ErikW at September 01, 2010 02:57 PM (RZBAV)

64

There have been some reports that Obozo is hoping to gin up some of that "rally 'round the Commander in Chief" voter sentiment by launching an invasion of Greenland.

 

Good.  Those fuckers have been causing way too much trouble for way too long.

Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 02:58 PM (a0r+q)

65 This is going to be a seas change election. Look at the new Tea Party candidates that are taking out long established Republicans and have a good or in some cases great chance to win. Put that on top of an almost sure Republican take over in the House and an increasingly good shot in the Senate and we may not just get a Republican take over of Congress but a Congress that is more conservative than any in recent memory. Anyone still wavering about voting, you've got to want to be a part of something this historic. Hell, I might vote twice.

Posted by: JackStraw at September 01, 2010 02:59 PM (VW9/y)

66 I haven't liked Kristal since he went all fangirl over McCain. Plus, he smiles like a possum eating shit off'n a hairbrush, as we say down here.

Posted by: TexasJew at September 01, 2010 03:01 PM (YIbxE)

67 #58 FALSE FALSE FALSE, but not in the direct date of 9/1/2008. Yes, for that brief second, McCain had some momentum. But his "momentum" lasted roughly 30 days in the entire cycle, from August 20th to September 20th. Before and after he sunk back down. And the generic ballot never really dipped below D+8 in polling AT ANY TIME IN 2008. This year we have lead and grown in our leads. We have watched state after state of OURS drop off the vulnerable list. We have watched state after state of THEIRS lapse into tossup or lean GOP. When a wave builds over months, it doesnt evaporate without a singular dramatic event. The economy isn't it. Immigration isnt it Healthcare isn't it. It is now GOTV and $$$$ like hell time to see how many dominoes we make fall. Remember- early performances in the earliest closing states will have dramatic impacts on the West Coast- many attribute the losses in Washington State in 1994 to the perception of a collasal wave. It got the GOP very energized on the West Coast, and the Democrats dispirited. I want to see states called within 30 minutes, and thats possible for Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia. You show a slaughter on the east coast, I GUARANTEE YOU Boxer and Murray LOSE.

Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:03 PM (lV4Fs)

68

There have been some reports that Obozo is hoping to gin up some of that "rally 'round the Commander in Chief" voter sentiment by launching an invasion of Greenland.

Posted by: Cicero at September 01, 2010 06:55 PM (QKKT0)

A Federally mandated reorganization of NCAA football conferences would probably do the trick too.

Posted by: ErikW at September 01, 2010 03:04 PM (RZBAV)

69 Word. I'm still waiting for the October Surprise(s) that will be a massive backfire for the Dems.

I think I heard Michael Savage speculate on the October surprise- we're going to bomb Iran. The American people will get behind the Iman in Chief and decide that we can't change leadership during a war.

What scares me is that is kind of believable.

However, it would be more believable if he said "attack Israel."

Posted by: shibumi at September 01, 2010 03:04 PM (OKZrE)

70 Speaking of Rasmussen, he has Miller beating McAdams by a whopping 6%.  Thanks again Tea Parties. 

Posted by: Bob at September 01, 2010 03:06 PM (/G0pB)

71

67

 

Wow.

Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 03:06 PM (a0r+q)

72

I call him Sardonicus.

Posted by: ErikW at September 01, 2010 06:57 PM (RZBAV)

Hmmm... I see what you mean.

Posted by: stuiec at September 01, 2010 03:07 PM (5UP6n)

73 What if the Moslem idiot gets all confused and bombs himself?

Posted by: TexasJew at September 01, 2010 03:08 PM (YIbxE)

74

 What if the Moslem idiot gets all confused and bombs himself?

 

Hence, all that money to redecorate the oval office.

Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 03:10 PM (a0r+q)

75 Word. I'm still waiting for the October Surprise(s) that will be a massive backfire for the Dems.




Seeing as the latest round of talks just started this week, my bet is that they're planning on a "Mid-East Peace" October Surprise. Which is patently insane, of course.

But as everyone knows, JugEars has a gift for bringing people together, for being a uniter, a peacemaker. *snort*

Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 01, 2010 03:10 PM (P9+0W)

76 What if the Moslem idiot gets all confused and bombs himself?

Posted by: TexasJew at September 01, 2010 07:08 PM (YIbxE)

Can you narrow it down a bit?  That covers an awful lot of candidates.

Posted by: stuiec at September 01, 2010 03:10 PM (5UP6n)

77 Sorry Soona. But its true. A wave is also perception and we need that going on election day. Overwhelming GOP turnout in all the states closing by 5pm PST should make it painfully obvious where things are going, and that is enough to excite GOP voters on the West Coast who would still have a few hours to change their minds if they had stayed home not believing it to be possible.

Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:11 PM (lV4Fs)

78 @ 13 Ombudsman We must repeal the 17th Amendment, although I agree with you that it's probably not smart to say that in September. It will take 20 years to roll back the gummimint, and in that time there will be another Democrat majority and Republicans are likely to run amok. The only question is whether the state governments will help roll backs or hinder them. Repealing the 17th Amendment is one of the most important acts small government advocates could do. Obamacare had no shot if Senators were doing their real friggin' job.

Posted by: WhiskeyJim at September 01, 2010 03:11 PM (MFUgK)

79 70 Bob,

yeah backing RiNOs got us Harry, Barry, and nan in charge in '06-now.....

I'll take a 6% win by a sane person with steel in their spine over the Maine twinz getting a spare 3% any day

Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 03:12 PM (kq1lG)

80 I think I heard Michael Savage speculate on the October surprise- we're going to bomb Iran. The American people will get behind the Iman in Chief and decide that we can't change leadership during a war.

What scares me is that is kind of believable.

However, it would be more believable if he said "attack Israel."

Posted by: shibumi at September 01, 2010 07:04 PM (OKZrE)

That particular scenario also ignores the fact that Obama is not running this November.  If the plan is to get Americans to choose which Congressional leaders they believe will stand by our troops and support our war effort, that's a sure way to get them to vote Republican.

Posted by: stuiec at September 01, 2010 03:13 PM (5UP6n)

81 Hence, all that money to redecorate the oval office.

Actually, Bo puked on a chair one morning and Mo and I just decided to go with that color theme. Didn't cost you wingnuts a dime.

Posted by: President Toonces at September 01, 2010 03:14 PM (554T5)

82 Anyone going to watch the Boxer/Fiorina debate on CSPAN  tonight?

I think Fiorina is going to wipe the floor with Boxer.

Popcorn!

Posted by: ghost707 at September 01, 2010 03:15 PM (BNk7G)

83

But its true. A wave is also perception and we need that going on election day. Overwhelming GOP turnout in all the states closing by 5pm PST should make it painfully obvious where things are going, and that is enough to excite GOP voters on the West Coast who would still have a few hours to change their minds if they had stayed home not believing it to be possible.

 

Trust me.  Your preaching to choir on this.  I'm with ya'.  I had a momentary relapse of wiseass.

Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 03:15 PM (a0r+q)

84 The way I see it, Obama's Presidency and the current Congress aren't just sending voters to the right; they're also making a lot of people pay more attention to politics and what their beliefs really are.  Too many people are casual about labeling themselves, and don't really take the time to really examine the issues and determine their beliefs. 

I think this election cycle is changing that, and it will serve conservatives for years and maybe decades to come, just as Carter's presidency did.

Posted by: frode at September 01, 2010 03:15 PM (fY/Qx)

85

I think I heard Michael Savage speculate on the October surprise- we're going to bomb Iran.

Posted by: shibumi at September 01, 2010 07:04 PM (OKZrE)

There's no way we're that lucky.  I can see why he's say that, of course.  The only thing that motivates modern Dems to fight our enemies is a threat to their own personal position.

Posted by: Reactionary at September 01, 2010 03:16 PM (4nbyM)

86 #82 I really hope Fiorina makes Boxer start sputtering. I want her to do really, really well. I dont want to jinx it so I will watch the replay.

Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:17 PM (lV4Fs)

87 your = you're

Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 03:18 PM (a0r+q)

88 I actually think that Obama *wants* the Democrats to lose both houses of Congress so gridlock will set in and he can run against the "do nothing Republican Congress" in 2012. Gotta work better than running in his record, and he isn't the least bit squeamish about throwing folks- even his supporters- under the bus to advance his personal political agenda.

Posted by: Nighthawk at September 01, 2010 03:18 PM (dF6Eh)

89 "in his record" = "on his record" *sigh*

Posted by: Nighthawk at September 01, 2010 03:20 PM (dF6Eh)

90 Repealing the 17th Amendment is one of the most important acts small government advocates could do. Obamacare had no shot if Senators were doing their real friggin' job.

Posted by: WhiskeyJim at September 01, 2010 07:11 PM (MFUgK)

I agree that the 17th Amendment was a mistake, but realistically, we'd never get the 2/3 and 3/4 votes.  Besides, it'd be so easy to demagogue.  WE know what it is.  All the average voter will hear is: the EEEVIL Republicans want to REPEAL THE CONSTITUTION!

Posted by: Ombudsman at September 01, 2010 03:23 PM (c1oyg)

91

I think I heard Michael Savage speculate on the October surprise- we're going to bomb Iran.

Posted by: shibumi at September 01, 2010 07:04 PM (OKZrE)

Nah, that's up to the Joooos.

Posted by: Ombudsman at September 01, 2010 03:25 PM (c1oyg)

92

Sorry, but Murkowski voted against the Obama agenda pretty much every time.  Did she steer pork to Alaska?  Yes, but so do the most "conservative" Republicans.  Sorry, but tiny, ideologically pure minorities have no influence in Washington.  I would prefer to have as many conservatives as possible, but unlike many here, I realize you can't always get that.  The perfect example: O'Donnell in DE.  If anyone, anyone, thinks she has even a remote chance of winning the general in DE they are fucking stupid, and that's the bottom line.  Mike Castle may be a RINO but at least he votes against Obama at least half the time, unlike Coons, who would be a rubber stamp. 

 

As for Collins and Snowe, I will write this in all caps so you can get it your head:  MAINE IS NOT UTAH OR IDAHO.  

 

 

Were getting to the point where purging the so-called RINOs from the party is becoming more important to some than actually having the numbers to stop the agenda that has absolutely laid waste to this country for the past 19 months.   That attitude has lead to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in NV.  

Posted by: Bob at September 01, 2010 03:34 PM (/G0pB)

93 >>>> FALSE FALSE FALSE, but not in the direct date of 9/1/2008.
Yes, for that brief second, McCain had some momentum. But his "momentum" lasted roughly 30 days in the entire cycle, from August 20th to September 20th. Before and after he sunk back down.

McCain led for most of August.  He got stronger in battleground state after battleground state, and stronger still after picking Sarah Palin.  Until the financial crisis hit, and he pulled the dipshit move of suspending his campaign, he was on track to beat Obama soundly.


>>>> And the generic ballot never really dipped below D+8 in polling AT ANY TIME IN 2008.

The generic ballot isn't really relevant to presidential elections.


>>>> This year we have lead and grown in our leads. We have watched state after state of OURS drop off the vulnerable list. We have watched state after state of THEIRS lapse into tossup or lean GOP.

Your definition of "tossup" and mine vary considerably.  A tossup, to me, is a race in which nobody can really say for certain what's going to happen, wave be damned.  There are dozens and dozens of seats that fall into that category, enough to keep the likely GOP majority in the House marginal and to keep control of the Senate a total unknown.


>>>> When a wave builds over months, it doesnt evaporate without a singular dramatic event.

Which is my point.  On September 1st, nobody saw that singular dramatic event coming.  I didn't.  You didn't.  The pundits didn't.  Nobody could have forecast the financial meltdown that would turn the election inside out.  2008 was enough to cure me from ever taking anything for granted again.


>>>> It is now GOTV and $$$$ like hell time to see how many dominoes we make fall. Remember- early performances in the earliest closing states will have dramatic impacts on the West Coast- many attribute the losses in Washington State in 1994 to the perception of a collasal wave.
It got the GOP very energized on the West Coast, and the Democrats dispirited.

You don't GOTV by assuring your voters that everything's a done deal.  That's how you get people to become complacent and stay home, and enthusiasm gaps don't hurt Democrats as much as they hurt us because their overall organization is better and has been for years.  They're going to be bussing their voters to the polls, and their machines are going to be turned up to 11.  It's going to take everything the Republicans have got in states like Washington, California, and Wisconsin just to get past the fraud margin.  (The WA primary results in particular reinforced my belief that Rossi is the underdog there.)


>>>> I want to see states called within 30 minutes, and thats possible for Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia.

Sure it is, but so?  This isn't 1994, and Washington State isn't nearly as winnable for the GOP as it was then.  Neither is California, for that matter.  Early calls in solid GOP states in the South could drive down Dem turnout on the West Coast, but I wouldn't at all take for granted that it will have the same effect as 16 years ago.  The electorates there are significantly different than they were then.


>>>> You show a slaughter on the east coast, I GUARANTEE YOU Boxer and Murray LOSE.

With all respect, CAC, neither you, I, nor anyone else can guarantee shit.  My money, in fact, is on them both hanging on.  Guaranteeing the results of elections two months before they happen is hubristic, arrogant, and begging for an upset.  I prefer not to get people's hopes up so unrealistically high that they'll end up crashing down in disappointment on Election Night no matter how well we do.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 03:38 PM (57AGg)

94

Were getting to the point where purging the so-called RINOs from the party is becoming more important to some than actually having the numbers to stop the agenda that has absolutely laid waste to this country for the past 19 months.   That attitude has lead to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in NV. 

 

Why can't we do both?  It's almost like you're inferring that all us po' hicks in the sticks can't walk and chew gum at the same time.  

Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 03:39 PM (a0r+q)

95 #93 He lead for AUGUST into September, that was it. We have been building and leading for months. I wouldnt count on Obama pulling something out of his as to save it for the Dems- they have had multiple failsafes they just blew right through. I think that excitement and high expectations, steered correctly, yield fantastic returns in GOTV efforts and tend to result in victories. After suffering through 2006 and 2008 I understand your need for caution, but jump on the OMGZ bandwagon. Someone needs to steer it.

Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:43 PM (lV4Fs)

96 I agreed with everything he said up until he attacked Angle by implying her election led to the tossup now. It didn't- the Reid machine did. But now she is matching him blow for blow and fighting tough. I do agree about Delaware- it's stupid to get behind a charlatan like O'Donnell who makes JD Hayworth's late night $$ FROM THE GUBA-MINT infomercials look honest and admirable (at least he made a profit off that instead of sucking $ from his campaigns). But lay off Angle. I have been impressed with her the last 2 weeks with her tenacity.

Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:45 PM (lV4Fs)

97

As for Collins and Snowe, I will write this in all caps so you can get it your head:  MAINE IS NOT UTAH OR IDAHO.  

Or Alaska, which pretty much destroys your argument.  Go over to FrumForum, you'll fit in better.

Posted by: Ken at September 01, 2010 03:46 PM (ftfkn)

98 #99 Her only stumble was having absolutely no $$ to fight back against the initial ANGLE=NUTCASE meme. Once she started pulling in the cash, she has hit back, HARD, and brought it back to a tie- LVRJ poll has it Reid +1 Ras has it Angle +2 Reid was going to unleash the Crapen on whoever won, and knock them down. That Angle climbed back so quickly is testimony to two things- THEY FUCKING HATE REID HER TEAM WILL NOT ROLL OVER Combine the two, mix in a few more $$, and I still think it is Angles, not Reid's, to lose.

Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:50 PM (lV4Fs)

99

BTW, Bob, you also know approximately jack shit about the NV race either.  I live here and I can tell you that it is much more likely that Angle will win.

Deep down inside, though, you will be very disappointed if she does, since that won't reinforce your worldview--the worldview in which, if all those gun-toting rednecks would just die, you could have fun, mutually respectful elections against your Democrat friends.

Posted by: Ken at September 01, 2010 03:51 PM (ftfkn)

100 CAC, if no major October Surprise upsets this momentum we've got (and the momentum's been ridiculously good for the last month in particular, no question), I'll be right there on the "we've got this thing sewed up" bandwagon in the closing weeks.

Till then, our country is in particular danger because there's literally nothing this gang of insane psychopaths running it won't consider getting us into in order to shore up their own electoral fortunes, and there's no telling how the American people might react to same.  2008 should never be forgotten because of the way it showed, in September and October, how an extraordinarily conveniently-timed crisis can upend every expectation, and how it can drive people to make unpredictable choices out of fear.  I know I'll never forget it, and at this time in '08 I thought I was pretty confident about how things were going to turn out.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 03:55 PM (57AGg)

101 Combine the two, mix in a few more $$, and I still think it is Angles, not Reid's, to lose.

On this one, I agree.  Reid's shot his wad and the polls are still tied.  It'll be close, but I think he's going to be the Tom Daschle of 2010.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 03:56 PM (57AGg)

102 #103 An economic meltdown panic like in 9/2008 though wouldn't help the Dems... The options for what would save them have dwindled rather significantly. There may be some Huffingtonian surprises here and there for local candidates, but a national one that saves them 60 days out, we need to find a midterm correlation, not a presidential one. I do praise you for your caution. Someone needs to bring me back down to earth from time to time...

Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:58 PM (lV4Fs)

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