September 01, 2010
— Ace This isn't unprecedented, but Rasmussen hasn't found it this close since 2005, which was, I guess, the peak of post-9/11 Republican affiliation before the steep drop off which followed.
In August, 35.0% of American Adults identified themselves as Democrats. ThatÂ’s down nearly half a percentage point from a month ago and is the smallest percentage of Democrats ever recorded in nearly eight years of monthly tracking.At the same time, the number of Republicans grew in August to 33.8%. ThatÂ’s up two full percentage points from the month before and the largest number of Republicans recorded in 2010.
As has been the case in every month over the past eight years of tracking, there are more Democrats than Republicans in the nation. The gap is currently 1.2 percentage points. ThatÂ’s the closest the Republicans have been to parity in more than five years, since July 2005.
ItÂ’s also the smallest gap between the parties heading into any of the recent campaign seasons....
The biggest advantage ever measured for Democrats was 10.1 percentage points in May 2008. In December 2008, the final full month of the Bush administration, the Democrats held an 8.8-percentage-point advantage.
Even with that 8.8% advantage, in a huge-turnout-for-energized-Democrats year, they could only parlay that to a 4% or 5% advantage in actual votes.
What happens when it's at parity? Wonderful things, wonderful things.
From Captain Ed, who notes that this gets at one of his pet peeves -- the seven, eight, ten, eleven point Democrat advantage "mainstream" media pollsters tend to build into their "forecasts." (Actually -- wishcasts.)
Random Rassmussen Good News: Pennsylvania Governor's contest moves to "Solid GOP," even though currently held by D.
Posted by: Ace at
02:08 PM
| Comments (104)
Post contains 294 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: MrScribbler at September 01, 2010 02:13 PM (Ulu3i)
Posted by: Ombudsman at September 01, 2010 02:13 PM (c1oyg)
Even if we win both House and Senate, without a radical rewrite of the Civil Service Rules, the same entrenched bureaucrats that created this mess will still be in power.
We must not only elect good conservatives, but those with the will to radically alter Civil Service and defy Federal Judges who declare the rewrite unconstitutional.
Posted by: Fish at September 01, 2010 02:15 PM (v1gw3)
Looks good.
What percentage are self-identifying as American Taliban?
I hear that's what the cool kids are self-identifying as.
Posted by: BumperStickerist at September 01, 2010 02:15 PM (Hj0nA)
And there are a lot more of them than there were even in 2005, and tons more than in 1994 (the most obvious yardstick for comparison of these generic partisan-ID polls), which means that even comparisons to the partisan splits of the past may understate just how deep down in the cauldron of shit the Democrats are.
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 02:15 PM (57AGg)
We must not only elect good conservatives, but those with the will to radically alter Civil Service and defy Federal Judges who declare the rewrite unconstitutional.
fify
Don't let the Perfect become the enemy of the Good.
Posted by: BumperStickerist at September 01, 2010 02:17 PM (Hj0nA)
Posted by: Ombudsman at September 01, 2010 02:18 PM (c1oyg)
Posted by: Reactionary at September 01, 2010 02:18 PM (4nbyM)
Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at September 01, 2010 02:21 PM (wd0Iq)
Posted by: NM Hick at September 01, 2010 02:21 PM (Avspz)
Posted by: sliderblaze at September 01, 2010 02:21 PM (Jesjh)
Posted by: Cicero at September 01, 2010 02:21 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at September 01, 2010 02:23 PM (ib45C)
Not seeking perfection, but at least an understanding by the elected that the real issue is entrenched polliwogs, and until they are denied, they will continue to run the country.
Many a bureaucrat has commented: "elected officials come and go, but we are here forever."
Posted by: Fish at September 01, 2010 02:24 PM (v1gw3)
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 02:25 PM (57AGg)
Posted by: curious at September 01, 2010 02:27 PM (p302b)
However:
House +45-50, Senate, +8-9 and no cigar.
There I stand, and will remain until Nov. 2. I would love to be humbled on that day.
Posted by: Bat Chain Puller at September 01, 2010 02:28 PM (juvbI)
Is this fucker the dumbest man to ever be President?
Rhetorical question, Netterman, take a lap.
Posted by: tangonine at September 01, 2010 02:28 PM (C8Pcc)
We've heard since the day the holy one of Washington was elected that once we saw, once we read, once we reflected, once we understood, that our attitude would change.
Well what happened is that the wrong people finally saw, read, reflected and understood that the key word in the failed experiment of socialism is failed, and no amount of virtuosity at teleprompter reading can change the reality of failure.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at September 01, 2010 02:29 PM (r1h5M)
Posted by: tangonine at September 01, 2010 02:29 PM (C8Pcc)
I've got a report due on space.
Posted by: Dr. Varno at September 01, 2010 06:18 PM (QMtmy)
If you can use some handy facts about major muslim contributions to space exploration, please call our toll-free hotline.
Posted by: Charles Bolden, NASA Chief at September 01, 2010 02:30 PM (QKKT0)
Posted by: Reactionary at September 01, 2010 06:18 PM (4nbyM)
True, and that was my philosophy, but primaries are pretty much wrapping up, so time to pick the R or merely reject the D, as the case may be.
Posted by: Randy at September 01, 2010 02:30 PM (zQKSr)
I've got a report due on space.
Posted by: Dr. Varno at September 01, 2010 06:18 PM (QMtmy)
It's big. Really big.
Posted by: nickless at September 01, 2010 02:32 PM (MMC8r)
Well hey, this Independent (who always votes Rep) has only voted in Presidential generals, but is going to vote Rep in congressional midterms. In Florida.
FWIW
Posted by: Burn the Witch at September 01, 2010 02:34 PM (fLHQe)
Posted by: Jane D'oh at September 01, 2010 02:35 PM (UOM48)
Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 02:35 PM (a0r+q)
That's what she said.
Alas, space is also really, really empty. Only thing emptier than space is the average moonbat's head.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 01, 2010 02:37 PM (c0A3e)
Is this fucker the dumbest man to ever be President?
As much as I'd love to see those Garands and Carbines hit the marketplace, for serious use, ammo availability is a hell of a lot better for AKs, SKSs and M4gerys.
Which also illustrates how stupid these idiots are. They're actually worried about flooding the market with rifles chambered for cartridges that aren't particularly plentiful anymore. That whole supply/demand thing must really make their heads hurt.
Did you see that it was 700,000 Carbines!?!? *drool*
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 01, 2010 02:38 PM (P9+0W)
FIFY
Posted by: Jane D'oh at September 01, 2010 02:39 PM (UOM48)
add in the prospect of that number of carbines making it more likely there will be replica IR scopes for an M-3 carbine and it is double drool.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 02:40 PM (kq1lG)
Posted by: Vic at September 01, 2010 02:42 PM (/jbAw)
Posted by: NM Hick at September 01, 2010 02:42 PM (Avspz)
Posted by: Mr Church at September 01, 2010 02:42 PM (oQIfB)
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 01, 2010 06:38 PM (P9+0W)
Link please!!!
Posted by: Mr Church at September 01, 2010 02:44 PM (oQIfB)
Posted by: Nighthawk at September 01, 2010 02:44 PM (dF6Eh)
Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 02:46 PM (lV4Fs)
Posted by: Vic at September 01, 2010 06:42 PM (/jbAw)
Word. I'm still waiting for the October Surprise(s) that will be a massive backfire for the Dems.
Posted by: ErikW at September 01, 2010 02:46 PM (RZBAV)
That's probably the best news in the article -- it means that voters are choosing the GOP and not just rejecting the Democrat Party.
Posted by: stuiec at September 01, 2010 02:46 PM (5UP6n)
The Kraut's up next for a little profundity on liberal prevarication, obstruction of justice, and malfeasance.
Posted by: Fish at September 01, 2010 02:48 PM (v1gw3)
Lord, I hope so. I want to believe. Seeing Miller-time last night, even when I missed the dipping, was a great morale boast.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 01, 2010 02:50 PM (c0A3e)
That's probably the best news in the article -- it means that voters are choosing the GOP and not just rejecting the Democrat Party.
In spite of the higher-ups in the RNC doing some of the dumbest things - that's even better news.
Posted by: Kratos (Ghost of Sparta) at September 01, 2010 02:52 PM (c0A3e)
No question. But like I said earlier, on September 1, 2008, McCain was leading in the key battleground states and had all the momentum...
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 02:53 PM (57AGg)
Word. I'm still waiting for the October Surprise(s) that will be a massive backfire for the Dems.
Posted by: ErikW at September 01, 2010 06:46 PM (RZBAV)
There have been some reports that Obozo is hoping to gin up some of that "rally 'round the Commander in Chief" voter sentiment by launching an invasion of Greenland.
Posted by: Cicero at September 01, 2010 02:55 PM (QKKT0)
yeah and then they triggered the implosion and the people blamed the party in power....
while creating a 300+billion dollar loss in the NYSE to get your candidate a few extra points may be fun especially if the geritoloholic your opponent is running stops the campaign not once but twice they try that little stunt again and oddly Bury'll get the blame along with the Ds not the GOP.
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 02:56 PM (kq1lG)
Lost the link. Trying to track it down now, but IIRC the breakdown was something like 80-90k of Garands with over 700k of Carbines.
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 01, 2010 02:57 PM (P9+0W)
Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 06:51 PM (a0r+q)
I call him Sardonicus.
Posted by: ErikW at September 01, 2010 02:57 PM (RZBAV)
There have been some reports that Obozo is hoping to gin up some of that "rally 'round the Commander in Chief" voter sentiment by launching an invasion of Greenland.
Good. Those fuckers have been causing way too much trouble for way too long.
Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 02:58 PM (a0r+q)
Posted by: JackStraw at September 01, 2010 02:59 PM (VW9/y)
Posted by: TexasJew at September 01, 2010 03:01 PM (YIbxE)
Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:03 PM (lV4Fs)
There have been some reports that Obozo is hoping to gin up some of that "rally 'round the Commander in Chief" voter sentiment by launching an invasion of Greenland.
Posted by: Cicero at September 01, 2010 06:55 PM (QKKT0)
A Federally mandated reorganization of NCAA football conferences would probably do the trick too.
Posted by: ErikW at September 01, 2010 03:04 PM (RZBAV)
I think I heard Michael Savage speculate on the October surprise- we're going to bomb Iran. The American people will get behind the Iman in Chief and decide that we can't change leadership during a war.
What scares me is that is kind of believable.
However, it would be more believable if he said "attack Israel."
Posted by: shibumi at September 01, 2010 03:04 PM (OKZrE)
Posted by: Bob at September 01, 2010 03:06 PM (/G0pB)
I call him Sardonicus.
Posted by: ErikW at September 01, 2010 06:57 PM (RZBAV)
Hmmm... I see what you mean.
Posted by: stuiec at September 01, 2010 03:07 PM (5UP6n)
Posted by: TexasJew at September 01, 2010 03:08 PM (YIbxE)
What if the Moslem idiot gets all confused and bombs himself?
Hence, all that money to redecorate the oval office.
Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 03:10 PM (a0r+q)
Seeing as the latest round of talks just started this week, my bet is that they're planning on a "Mid-East Peace" October Surprise. Which is patently insane, of course.
But as everyone knows, JugEars has a gift for bringing people together, for being a uniter, a peacemaker. *snort*
Posted by: IllTemperedCur at September 01, 2010 03:10 PM (P9+0W)
Posted by: TexasJew at September 01, 2010 07:08 PM (YIbxE)
Can you narrow it down a bit? That covers an awful lot of candidates.
Posted by: stuiec at September 01, 2010 03:10 PM (5UP6n)
Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:11 PM (lV4Fs)
Posted by: WhiskeyJim at September 01, 2010 03:11 PM (MFUgK)
yeah backing RiNOs got us Harry, Barry, and nan in charge in '06-now.....
I'll take a 6% win by a sane person with steel in their spine over the Maine twinz getting a spare 3% any day
Posted by: sven10077 at September 01, 2010 03:12 PM (kq1lG)
What scares me is that is kind of believable.
However, it would be more believable if he said "attack Israel."
Posted by: shibumi at September 01, 2010 07:04 PM (OKZrE)
That particular scenario also ignores the fact that Obama is not running this November. If the plan is to get Americans to choose which Congressional leaders they believe will stand by our troops and support our war effort, that's a sure way to get them to vote Republican.
Posted by: stuiec at September 01, 2010 03:13 PM (5UP6n)
Actually, Bo puked on a chair one morning and Mo and I just decided to go with that color theme. Didn't cost you wingnuts a dime.
Posted by: President Toonces at September 01, 2010 03:14 PM (554T5)
I think Fiorina is going to wipe the floor with Boxer.
Popcorn!
Posted by: ghost707 at September 01, 2010 03:15 PM (BNk7G)
But its true. A wave is also perception and we need that going on election day. Overwhelming GOP turnout in all the states closing by 5pm PST should make it painfully obvious where things are going, and that is enough to excite GOP voters on the West Coast who would still have a few hours to change their minds if they had stayed home not believing it to be possible.
Trust me. Your preaching to choir on this. I'm with ya'. I had a momentary relapse of wiseass.
Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 03:15 PM (a0r+q)
I think this election cycle is changing that, and it will serve conservatives for years and maybe decades to come, just as Carter's presidency did.
Posted by: frode at September 01, 2010 03:15 PM (fY/Qx)
I think I heard Michael Savage speculate on the October surprise- we're going to bomb Iran.
Posted by: shibumi at September 01, 2010 07:04 PM (OKZrE)
There's no way we're that lucky. I can see why he's say that, of course. The only thing that motivates modern Dems to fight our enemies is a threat to their own personal position.
Posted by: Reactionary at September 01, 2010 03:16 PM (4nbyM)
Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:17 PM (lV4Fs)
Posted by: Nighthawk at September 01, 2010 03:18 PM (dF6Eh)
Posted by: Nighthawk at September 01, 2010 03:20 PM (dF6Eh)
Posted by: WhiskeyJim at September 01, 2010 07:11 PM (MFUgK)
I agree that the 17th Amendment was a mistake, but realistically, we'd never get the 2/3 and 3/4 votes. Besides, it'd be so easy to demagogue. WE know what it is. All the average voter will hear is: the EEEVIL Republicans want to REPEAL THE CONSTITUTION!
Posted by: Ombudsman at September 01, 2010 03:23 PM (c1oyg)
I think I heard Michael Savage speculate on the October surprise- we're going to bomb Iran.
Posted by: shibumi at September 01, 2010 07:04 PM (OKZrE)
Nah, that's up to the Joooos.
Posted by: Ombudsman at September 01, 2010 03:25 PM (c1oyg)
Sorry, but Murkowski voted against the Obama agenda pretty much every time. Did she steer pork to Alaska? Yes, but so do the most "conservative" Republicans. Sorry, but tiny, ideologically pure minorities have no influence in Washington. I would prefer to have as many conservatives as possible, but unlike many here, I realize you can't always get that. The perfect example: O'Donnell in DE. If anyone, anyone, thinks she has even a remote chance of winning the general in DE they are fucking stupid, and that's the bottom line. Mike Castle may be a RINO but at least he votes against Obama at least half the time, unlike Coons, who would be a rubber stamp.
As for Collins and Snowe, I will write this in all caps so you can get it your head: MAINE IS NOT UTAH OR IDAHO.
Were getting to the point where purging the so-called RINOs from the party is becoming more important to some than actually having the numbers to stop the agenda that has absolutely laid waste to this country for the past 19 months. That attitude has lead to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in NV.
Posted by: Bob at September 01, 2010 03:34 PM (/G0pB)
Yes, for that brief second, McCain had some momentum. But his "momentum" lasted roughly 30 days in the entire cycle, from August 20th to September 20th. Before and after he sunk back down.
McCain led for most of August. He got stronger in battleground state after battleground state, and stronger still after picking Sarah Palin. Until the financial crisis hit, and he pulled the dipshit move of suspending his campaign, he was on track to beat Obama soundly.
>>>> And the generic ballot never really dipped below D+8 in polling AT ANY TIME IN 2008.
The generic ballot isn't really relevant to presidential elections.
>>>> This year we have lead and grown in our leads. We have watched state after state of OURS drop off the vulnerable list. We have watched state after state of THEIRS lapse into tossup or lean GOP.
Your definition of "tossup" and mine vary considerably. A tossup, to me, is a race in which nobody can really say for certain what's going to happen, wave be damned. There are dozens and dozens of seats that fall into that category, enough to keep the likely GOP majority in the House marginal and to keep control of the Senate a total unknown.
>>>> When a wave builds over months, it doesnt evaporate without a singular dramatic event.
Which is my point. On September 1st, nobody saw that singular dramatic event coming. I didn't. You didn't. The pundits didn't. Nobody could have forecast the financial meltdown that would turn the election inside out. 2008 was enough to cure me from ever taking anything for granted again.
>>>> It is now GOTV and $$$$ like hell time to see how many dominoes we make fall. Remember- early performances in the earliest closing states will have dramatic impacts on the West Coast- many attribute the losses in Washington State in 1994 to the perception of a collasal wave.
It got the GOP very energized on the West Coast, and the Democrats dispirited.
You don't GOTV by assuring your voters that everything's a done deal. That's how you get people to become complacent and stay home, and enthusiasm gaps don't hurt Democrats as much as they hurt us because their overall organization is better and has been for years. They're going to be bussing their voters to the polls, and their machines are going to be turned up to 11. It's going to take everything the Republicans have got in states like Washington, California, and Wisconsin just to get past the fraud margin. (The WA primary results in particular reinforced my belief that Rossi is the underdog there.)
>>>> I want to see states called within 30 minutes, and thats possible for Indiana, Kentucky, South Carolina, Georgia, Virginia.
Sure it is, but so? This isn't 1994, and Washington State isn't nearly as winnable for the GOP as it was then. Neither is California, for that matter. Early calls in solid GOP states in the South could drive down Dem turnout on the West Coast, but I wouldn't at all take for granted that it will have the same effect as 16 years ago. The electorates there are significantly different than they were then.
>>>> You show a slaughter on the east coast, I GUARANTEE YOU Boxer and Murray LOSE.
With all respect, CAC, neither you, I, nor anyone else can guarantee shit. My money, in fact, is on them both hanging on. Guaranteeing the results of elections two months before they happen is hubristic, arrogant, and begging for an upset. I prefer not to get people's hopes up so unrealistically high that they'll end up crashing down in disappointment on Election Night no matter how well we do.
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 03:38 PM (57AGg)
Were getting to the point where purging the so-called RINOs from the party is becoming more important to some than actually having the numbers to stop the agenda that has absolutely laid waste to this country for the past 19 months. That attitude has lead to snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in NV.
Why can't we do both? It's almost like you're inferring that all us po' hicks in the sticks can't walk and chew gum at the same time.
Posted by: Soona at September 01, 2010 03:39 PM (a0r+q)
Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:43 PM (lV4Fs)
Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:45 PM (lV4Fs)
As for Collins and Snowe, I will write this in all caps so you can get it your head: MAINE IS NOT UTAH OR IDAHO.
Or Alaska, which pretty much destroys your argument. Go over to FrumForum, you'll fit in better.
Posted by: Ken at September 01, 2010 03:46 PM (ftfkn)
Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:50 PM (lV4Fs)
BTW, Bob, you also know approximately jack shit about the NV race either. I live here and I can tell you that it is much more likely that Angle will win.
Deep down inside, though, you will be very disappointed if she does, since that won't reinforce your worldview--the worldview in which, if all those gun-toting rednecks would just die, you could have fun, mutually respectful elections against your Democrat friends.
Posted by: Ken at September 01, 2010 03:51 PM (ftfkn)
Till then, our country is in particular danger because there's literally nothing this gang of insane psychopaths running it won't consider getting us into in order to shore up their own electoral fortunes, and there's no telling how the American people might react to same. 2008 should never be forgotten because of the way it showed, in September and October, how an extraordinarily conveniently-timed crisis can upend every expectation, and how it can drive people to make unpredictable choices out of fear. I know I'll never forget it, and at this time in '08 I thought I was pretty confident about how things were going to turn out.
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 03:55 PM (57AGg)
On this one, I agree. Reid's shot his wad and the polls are still tied. It'll be close, but I think he's going to be the Tom Daschle of 2010.
Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at September 01, 2010 03:56 PM (57AGg)
Posted by: CAC at September 01, 2010 03:58 PM (lV4Fs)
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Posted by: burberr outlet at November 15, 2010 07:13 PM (ohRzh)
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Posted by: nickless at September 01, 2010 02:09 PM (MMC8r)