April 16, 2010
— Open Blogger Chartmaster Geoff, of Uncommon Misconceptions has been trying to make this point, first at Innocent Bystanders, and again this morning at his own blog. Since it hasn't been pointed out anywhere else in the media, I thought I'd give it a wider audience here at AoSHQ:
For the past 5 1/2 months, the initial unemployment claims data have not really changed. HereÂ’s what I mean:
The data are oscillating about a slowly increasing value, indicating that, if anything, unemployment claims are increasing.
For the rest of his analysis, go to Uncommon Misconceptions.
See also his excellent take on Obama's Famous Tax Cuts.
And in case you're interested, here's the GOP.gov take on Obama's "tax cuts":
Posted by: Open Blogger at
08:12 AM
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Posted by: joncelli at April 16, 2010 08:18 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: Don at April 16, 2010 08:19 AM (tTj19)
Posted by: Clueless Joe from Hannibal, Uranus at April 16, 2010 08:20 AM (g4J4S)
Posted by: Lunatic Fringe at April 16, 2010 08:22 AM (uFdnM)
Sign at the Indianapolis Tea Party yesterday: "I am not your ATM." Sums it up pretty well, I think.
Oh, and Bill Whittle was our main speaker. He was awesome. *enjoys your seething jealousy*
Posted by: Joanna at April 16, 2010 08:23 AM (7+WuG)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at April 16, 2010 08:24 AM (1Jaio)
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at April 16, 2010 08:25 AM (B+qrE)
Posted by: joncelli at April 16, 2010 08:25 AM (RD7QR)
Posted by: dagny at April 16, 2010 08:25 AM (UaoUM)
So this is what Barry's laser like focus on the economy gets you.
Lasers blow up shit.
Just sayin'....
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at April 16, 2010 08:25 AM (B+qrE)
Posted by: mesablue at April 16, 2010 08:26 AM (jc7YC)
Posted by: Jean at April 16, 2010 08:27 AM (vb5IK)
Posted by: joncelli at April 16, 2010 12:25 PM (RD7QR)
give him time
Posted by: Unclefacts, AoSHQ Professional Debate Team at April 16, 2010 08:28 AM (erIg9)
Posted by: HeatherRadish at April 16, 2010 08:29 AM (mR7mk)
Posted by: JDFALCON IN VEGAS at April 16, 2010 08:29 AM (jHBnk)
Racist cracker.
I'm curious, I know I am definately a cracker, however, my husband is of all italian descent. I don't think he makes it to craker status. What about my children? Are they crackers? How cracker do you have to be to be a cracker? One of them is lighter skined than the other, could he be a cracker or not? This problem is also an issue in their guido-ness? Are they Cuidos or Grackers? or do they just pick one like Obama did?
Posted by: dagny at April 16, 2010 08:29 AM (UaoUM)
Thanks for the link(s), ND. Wasn't expecting an Aceolanche (would be funnier if we called it an "Aceholelanche"), just thought I'd see what your opinion was.
Thanks again.
Posted by: geoff at April 16, 2010 08:29 AM (/Rlkr)
Posted by: WalrusRex at April 16, 2010 08:29 AM (xxgag)
Posted by: Dr. Varno at April 16, 2010 08:30 AM (0QJjg)
"Number of original teeth" is in the algorithm someplace, right?
Posted by: HeatherRadish at April 16, 2010 08:30 AM (mR7mk)
Posted by: Nice
Deb at April 16, 2010 12:29 PM (Xo/IU)
works for me, I don't have my glasses on
Posted by: Unclefacts, AoSHQ Professional Debate Team at April 16, 2010 08:31 AM (erIg9)
Posted by: Inigo Montoya at April 16, 2010 08:32 AM (4Kl5M)
Posted by: mesablue at April 16, 2010 08:32 AM (jc7YC)
Posted by: Locus Ceruleus at April 16, 2010 08:32 AM (tzcjs)
I believe it follows the "One Drop" rule. Cracker. In which case, I am both a cracker and a Negro. Uniter.
Posted by: Barry O. at April 16, 2010 08:32 AM (1fanL)
Posted by: Dim at April 16, 2010 08:33 AM (LD+ZJ)
Posted by: geoff at April 16, 2010 12:30 PM (/Rlkr)
Are you he? If so, let me make a suggestion: more snark.
Posted by: FUBAR at April 16, 2010 08:34 AM (1fanL)
Posted by: Waterhouse at April 16, 2010 08:34 AM (rOd1g)
Is that a graph? Or a chart? Or maybe a visual stimulus package.
Someone's playing fast and loose with the language here.
Posted by: pendejo grande at April 16, 2010 08:35 AM (JHZ+N)
Good news, Comrades! The Recovery is going even better than expected! And this years wheat harvest is 200 million metric tons!
Posted by: Dang Straights at April 16, 2010 08:35 AM (fx8sm)
Unemployment traditionally fluctuates due to Halloween and the attendent after-Halloween candy overstock sales.
Do not discount the effects of Columbus Day.
Right into the abyss, I tell you.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at April 16, 2010 08:36 AM (B+qrE)
Posted by: TheQuietMan at April 16, 2010 08:36 AM (1Jaio)
That graph looks like a neo-Nazi flag. I see how you racist teabaggers have just separated the parts of the swastika. Your tricks won't work on me. You're all banned from the internets in perpetuity.
I bid you adieu.
P.S. Don't forget to pre-order the 2011 calender. Supplies go quickly!
Posted by: ChUcKlEs dA kLoWn at April 16, 2010 08:36 AM (rO6y/)
Posted by: Barry at April 16, 2010 08:36 AM (l0d+u)
Holy expanding blog, Batman! Is it about to capsize and join the fate of beloved Guam?
Nice work by Geoff as usual.
Say, the unemployment trend after The Won spoke is remarkedly similar to a hockey stick..
Posted by: Kratos (missing from the side of Mt Olympus) at April 16, 2010 08:37 AM (9hSKh)
Posted by: dagny at April 16, 2010 08:37 AM (UaoUM)
ND: If you want a smaller version, just take the smaller image off the web page, stick it the post, and have it link to the big one.
Are you he? If so, let me make a suggestion: more snark.
I'll give you just as much snark as you've earned.
Posted by: geoff at April 16, 2010 08:37 AM (/Rlkr)
Posted by: Barry O. at April 16, 2010 12:32 PM (1fanL)
Tell that to your census form
Posted by: TheQuietMan at April 16, 2010 08:38 AM (1Jaio)
Posted by: Judge Barbara B. Crabb at April 16, 2010 08:38 AM (ocax6)
Posted by: Mal at April 16, 2010 08:39 AM (Z+qzA)
Posted by: geoff at April 16, 2010 12:37 PM (/Rlkr)
Just saying. It's a snarket-rich environment.
Posted by: FUBAR at April 16, 2010 08:39 AM (1fanL)
President Brink Puller on 08/07/09: "I see light at the end of the tunnel." In this video Obama tells about twenty lies.
Posted by: Speed Buggy at April 16, 2010 08:40 AM (W9XyJ)
Is that AHFF Geoff?
No - I'm the old geoff for whom AHFF Geoff changed his name. Which was very much appreciated, especially since I've been scarce here these past few years; mostly hanging out at Innocent Bystanders, DoublePlusUndead, The Hostages, and NiceDeb's.
Posted by: geoff at April 16, 2010 08:40 AM (/Rlkr)
...my uncle used his to have all his teeth pulled and replaced with dentures. Cracker.
Posted by: HeatherRadish at April 16, 2010 08:40 AM (mR7mk)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at April 16, 2010 08:41 AM (OqTsN)
When did you join the Nazi Party?
Posted by: Dr Spank at April 16, 2010 08:43 AM (I1/U/)
ÃáÃá ãæÇÞÚ - ÇáÊÃáÃÉ - ßæßÊÃá - ãäÊÃÃÇÊ ßæßÊÃá - ÇáÇÞÊÕÇà ÇáãäÒáà - ãäÊÃÃÇÊ
Posted by: max at April 16, 2010 08:43 AM (ZBuP6)
Posted by: Bill D. Cat at April 16, 2010 08:43 AM (a9UO0)
Posted by: dagny at April 16, 2010 08:44 AM (UaoUM)
If you look closely it's about to resonate out of control.
No, closer. Somewhere around, say, cinco de cuatro.
Posted by: Fritz at April 16, 2010 08:44 AM (GwPRU)
they are going to implement another stimulus.........top wage earners will see taxes increased 12k to cover it....mid wage earners will see theirs go up $1,200.00 low earners will see theirs go up $4.
Something bothers me there. If I could just put my finger on it.
Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at April 16, 2010 08:46 AM (B+qrE)
The cowboys used to have whips, that would making a "cracking" sound.
Redneck is from hicks that beat their wifes...
Posted by: Mjim at April 16, 2010 08:46 AM (V8B//)
Posted by: Jimmy at April 16, 2010 12:42 PM (7VvJB)
That's doubtful. Whoever is observing you crack corn doesn't care because his (her?) master has died. If you were a cracker, you wouldn't have been cracking corn.
Posted by: FUBAR at April 16, 2010 08:48 AM (1fanL)
Posted by: dagny at April 16, 2010 12:44 PM (UaoUM)
Depends on who you ask. I've been told that crackers are white supremacists. Rednecks are just good honest folk who work bent over all day and get sunburn on their necks.
Posted by: FUBAR at April 16, 2010 08:49 AM (1fanL)
Redneck is from hicks that beat their wifes...
Posted by: Mjim at April 16, 2010 12:46 PM (V8B//)
I thought it came from slaveowners cracking their whips. And the rednecks only beat their wifes when they done sumpin' to deserve it.
Posted by: FUBAR at April 16, 2010 08:51 AM (1fanL)
Posted by: maddogg at April 16, 2010 08:52 AM (OlN4e)
I've heard a lot of the old wise heads saying that the GOP shouldn't make too much hay out of the down economy, on the theory that if and when it ticks back up the "defeatism" will hurt the GOP at the polls. I don't think that's necessarily true, mainly because I don't see the economy improving enough by the midterms to give the Democrats anything to crow about. But even on a more fundamental level, I think it's both wise and truthful to point out that there is a lot of real damage in the economy that an up stock market won't (and can't) fix.
The first and most glaring problem is obviously the looming catastrophe of under-funded (or unfunded) public-sector entitlements: mainly pensions and health-care. This is a $3 trillion burden that rests mainly on the states right now, but everyone knows that the Feds will step in before the states default on their GO bonds (California, New York, and Michigan will be interesting tests of their resolve). But no one is declaring the full value of these burdens on the public books, so the (very real) costs stay hidden. But not for much longer.
The second problem is public *spending*. As Milton Friedman said, I'd rather have a $1 trillion government with $1 trillion in debt than a $2 trillion government with no debt at all. Remember: a government is not a creator of wealth. It only eats, and the bigger it gets the more it eats.
The final problem is demography, both in the US and the rest of the world. By 2050 I suspect that the world will have a surfeit of old people being supported by an ever-shrinking class of younger workers. Japan is the bellwether here, but China is not far behind. This could have some really calamitous and unforseen consequences: social upheavals, wars, famines, all kinds of bad shit. (Instead of a Malthusian cruch of too many people, it looks like we're instead going to have a world full of grey-haired unproductive people being tended by an ever-shrinking pool of young 'uns. Who'd 'a thunk it?)
Posted by: Monty at April 16, 2010 08:54 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: HeatherRadish at April 16, 2010 08:54 AM (mR7mk)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at April 16, 2010 12:41 PM (OqTsN)
Why do I rob banks? Because that's where the money is. Pretty much the same idea.
Posted by: Willie Sutton at April 16, 2010 08:54 AM (xxgag)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at April 16, 2010 08:58 AM (7VvJB)
I just bought one GS May 160 CALL option and its up $60 since only about 20 minutes ago. Only one contract though, since I have no idea where the government intends to take this. I think people overreacted this morning.
Yea, someone is going to prison, and there will be some sort of fines, small enough that they won't matter in the grand scheme. I really don't think Obama has the stones to try and really damage GS in any meaningful way. He needs them to keep doing his bidding. This will be slap on the wrist stuff.
Obama doesn't give a shit about the "rich investors" who got clipped by this MBS fraud.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at April 16, 2010 09:02 AM (4KYzf)
Aha...so my family and I are just plain ol' white trash.
Pfft. I grew up in rural Wyoming. In a trailer. In a single parent home. At least 30% of my relatives have a felony arrest record. Up to 60% have misdemeanor arrests. Mother, sister, and all aunts and uncles were heavy smokers at one time or another, and a substantial fraction are aficionados of the fermented brew. Our lineage comes from Georgia and Texas, via Ye Olde World Scots-Irish-English (ruffians, n'e'r-do-wells, vagabonds, thieves, cut-throats, and riff-raff generally).
I yield to no one regarding my white-trash redneck ancestry. They's my peoples and I luvs 'em.
Posted by: Monty at April 16, 2010 09:03 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at April 16, 2010 09:05 AM (4KYzf)
Unemployment just reached 11% in Ohio.
Of course the Dems would rather discuss why Hannity bailed on the Tea Party last night.
Priorities, dontcha know.
Posted by: laceyunderalls at April 16, 2010 09:06 AM (pLTLS)
So let me guess make a prediction:
When the next batch of bad numbers come out it'll be blamed on the volcano.
Posted by: Ed Anger at April 16, 2010 09:07 AM (7+pP9)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at April 16, 2010 09:07 AM (4KYzf)
You just know that some kind of insane, effective-short-term-only, utterly unsustainable, economic 'stimulus' thing is coming between now and November, to create an effect that can be parlayed into an illusion of recovery.
What will it be? I can't figure it out, since as far as I know, they've already shot every wad available.
Hell, maybe it will just be an empty propaganda offensive with no new actions to back it up.
Posted by: Wm T Sherman at April 16, 2010 09:08 AM (w41GQ)
Posted by: Lunatic Fringe at April 16, 2010 09:08 AM (uFdnM)
Posted by: Purple Avenger at April 16, 2010 09:08 AM (4KYzf)
Posted by: Lunatic Fringe at April 16, 2010 09:10 AM (uFdnM)
I find it rather "convenient" that this news just "coincidentally" breaks on the same day that April options are conveniently expiring. Not the day before, not the day after. THE FUCKING DAY.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at April 16, 2010 09:12 AM (4KYzf)
Posted by: Fritz at April 16, 2010 09:12 AM (GwPRU)
Posted by: Old Sailor at April 16, 2010 09:13 AM (/Ft4q)
Posted by: Lunatic Fringe at April 16, 2010 09:13 AM (uFdnM)
The problem with the trend is that it appears it's going to be stretched out over a long period of time. Too long to suit most people, I would figure.
Posted by: Blacque Jacques Shellacque at April 16, 2010 09:15 AM (Q75cY)
No, I don't believe in coincidences with the open interest being over 17,000 contracts.
I'm calling shenanigans. Either GS or someone at the SEC knew this was coming and leaked or did insider trading. GUARANFUCKINGTEED If GS knew what was coming, they could pile on those PUT's for (literally) nothing and turn a tidy profit.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at April 16, 2010 09:21 AM (4KYzf)
The problem with the trend is that it appears it's going to be stretched out over a long period of time.
I think a lot of it is the economic equivalent of Brownian motion. There is a mean around which the value oscillates, but the ups and downs are unconnected to any real external reality.
Posted by: Dingusville Chamber of Commerce at April 16, 2010 09:22 AM (4Pleu)
Indeed. Trends in the age of Obama have a span akin to the shelf life of a loaf of bread. A couple of weeks at best. Anything else is "unexpected".
Posted by: Purple Avenger at April 16, 2010 09:22 AM (4KYzf)
My ancestry mirrors the one Jim Webb describes in his book. Then he turned lib and put us to shame.
Posted by: dagny at April 16, 2010 09:27 AM (UaoUM)
Posted by: Lunatic Fringe at April 16, 2010 09:35 AM (uFdnM)
I would not be surprised if that sort of scheme were negotiated prior to the announcement.
Essentially, GS makes out with a wash, with investors who took the heavy losses footing the real bill for the fines.
Posted by: Purple Avenger at April 16, 2010 09:42 AM (4KYzf)
Posted by: ed at April 16, 2010 09:53 AM (Urhve)
Posted by: dagny at April 16, 2010 09:55 AM (UaoUM)
Posted by: Obama at April 16, 2010 10:07 AM (7GgDy)
I was telling someone about my white-trash relatives and my wife said, "They're not like that. Your mother is very nice." I had to inform her that my mother was the exception in that branch of the family. She's never met the others.
Posted by: Steve L. at April 16, 2010 10:15 AM (Gkhxf)
Posted by: runningrn at April 16, 2010 10:16 AM (CfmlF)
Posted by: ford at April 16, 2010 10:19 AM (Ki7fm)
Posted by: Jean at April 16, 2010 10:32 AM (6Njk9)
Posted by: torabora at April 16, 2010 11:16 AM (4wU1F)
Posted by: curious at April 16, 2010 11:26 AM (p302b)
Posted by: curious at April 16, 2010 11:26 AM (p302b)
PA? Long time lurker, occasional commenter. I can show ya where to "query" option volume if you're interested. It won't show you who traded, just what was traded. It's a pretty handy web site.
Posted by: TheThinMan at April 16, 2010 11:46 AM (W3XUk)
Unemployment == DOWN? Obama's sound economic policies.
This isn't too hard to figure out, people.
Posted by: David Axelturf at April 16, 2010 12:53 PM (swuwV)
Racists.
Posted by: MarkD at April 16, 2010 01:34 PM (YhZfg)
I yield to no one regarding my white-trash redneck ancestry. They's my peoples and I luvs 'em.
Directions to my mom's house used to include "turn off the paved road." When I first joined the Army, my emergency notification directions to her place included "stop at local store and ask for directions." She was a coal miner, now retired.
Posted by: Penultimatum at April 16, 2010 01:44 PM (98agg)
Posted by: ajacksonian at April 16, 2010 04:47 PM (oy1lQ)
Posted by: Bill R. at April 16, 2010 05:26 PM (EhlQq)
Posted by: pdu at January 13, 2011 06:05 PM (hiiaP)
Posted by: sanitary ware at January 13, 2011 06:06 PM (hiiaP)
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Good job, Geoff.
Posted by: mesablue at April 16, 2010 08:14 AM (jc7YC)