August 19, 2010

The Endless Summer of "Recovery"
— Dave in Texas

Weekly jobless claims hit 500,000.

Unexpected even.

Discount retailer WalMart showed a solid 2nd quarter increase in net income, up 3.6%, but that was a result of growth in Asia, Central and South America, and cost-cutting in the US. The only measure of activity that matters domestically is same-store sales (year ago year-to-date comparisons), and that's down for the 5th consecutive quarter. There is however another discounter that showed a big jump in same store sales, Dollar Tree.

Used to be when you saw economic downturns, they were accompanied by upticks in WalMart same store sales (people with less money need to save money, or so the theory went).

Not anymore.

Posted by: Dave in Texas at 05:04 AM | Comments (99)
Post contains 121 words, total size 1 kb.

1 Well that added a lot more R voters....or am I dreamin'?

Posted by: Tami at August 19, 2010 05:06 AM (VuLos)

2 Holy unexpected crap!

Posted by: suzyq at August 19, 2010 05:07 AM (nLx2P)

3 Barry: Put the car in (D) not (R)! We are going in the right direction. I saved or created 50 trillion jobs. The failed policies of...uhhhh....it's all Bush's.....I...uuhhhhh.....I'm going on vacation to help the economy

Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 19, 2010 05:08 AM (1Jaio)

4
My BIL is in engineering and just lost his job along with two dozen other guys in his division. He had 22 years with the company and was four years away from retirement. Yep, it's been some "Summer of Recovery".

Posted by: Soap MacTavish at August 19, 2010 05:12 AM (554T5)

5 This crap is really hurting our local veterans posts that rely mostly on liquor sales to keep afloat.  As more and more people lose jobs they have to cut back on things and stoping by the local VFW or American Legion for a few beers is first on the list to go.  At our VFW our sales are way down and our members are so old they can no longer support the place.  We are seriously looking at having to close down in the near future unless things pick up soon.

Posted by: Johnnyreb at August 19, 2010 05:13 AM (Mv/2X)

6 CNBC cheerleaders hardest hit.

Posted by: Retread at August 19, 2010 05:13 AM (J2WNM)

7

500,000

What am I?

The number of new unemployment claims.

All hail the summer of recovery!

Posted by: Ed Anger at August 19, 2010 05:15 AM (7+pP9)

8 And Soros is bailing his money out of American companies. Weeeeeeeeeeeee!

Posted by: Mr Pink at August 19, 2010 05:15 AM (T3gUk)

9 Used to be when you saw economic downturns, they were accompanied by upticks in WalMart same store sales (people with less money need to save money, or so the theory went).

They had already cut back to WalMart.  When they cut back from Dollar Tree, they cut back to dumpsters.

The only thing that will stop the decline in the short term is a massive takeover of Congress in November that gives everyone confidence that President Commie's agenda is stopped dead.

Posted by: nickless at August 19, 2010 05:15 AM (MMC8r)

10 Buy Buy Buy!

Posted by: Jim Cramer at August 19, 2010 05:15 AM (wuv1c)

11

in all seriousness, i am so pissed at myself. i heavily debated buying Potash at 90 about a month or two ago.

now its jumped to 150 because BHP is trying a hostile takeover

Posted by: Ben at August 19, 2010 05:16 AM (wuv1c)

12

They had already cut back to WalMart.  When they cut back from Dollar Tree, they cut back to dumpsters.

You fat cats didn't finish your plankton

Posted by: Ben at August 19, 2010 05:18 AM (wuv1c)

13
1) Bush's fault
2) Republican Obstructionism
3) Bush's fault
4) Racism
5) Racist Republican Obstructionism
6) Did I mention Bush?

Posted by: Dang Straights at August 19, 2010 05:19 AM (fx8sm)

14 I really thought things were going to be better under the Democrats.

Posted by: Captain Comatose at August 19, 2010 05:19 AM (+A1oI)

15 And do any of think the clue bat has whomped hard enough to make Pelosi, Reid or Obama realize they should peel back some of the red tape and government burden on business (not even talking actual taxes here) Frankly I don't. Nancy is utterly clueless, Harry is too busy attacking Angle and trying to suck up or shake down casino money and Barry either doesn't care or is actually gleeful that 'evil' businesses are hurting and the unemployed workers are just collateral damage that he doesn't care enough about to affect his waffle intake.

Posted by: Palerider at August 19, 2010 05:20 AM (N7udQ)

16

Bloomberg.com brings the spin

A cooling economy may be discouraging employers from adding staff and prompting some to step up dismissals, raising the risk consumer spending will weaken more. The Federal Reserve said last week that the recovery would probably be “more modest” than anticipated, reflecting in part a jobless rate thatÂ’s restraining incomes.

A cooling economy? If it got any cooler we'd get frost bite. Comrades, the imaginary recovery will now be called a modest recovery

Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 19, 2010 05:20 AM (1Jaio)

17 Wanna git high?

Posted by: Towelie at August 19, 2010 05:21 AM (9Sbz+)

18 doh: "do any of US think"

Posted by: Palerider at August 19, 2010 05:21 AM (N7udQ)

19

UNEXPECTED!!!!!!!!!!111!11!!1!11

 

may even be unprecedented.

 

 

I am seriously starting to question the ability to grasp the english language of a lot of these reporters.  They remind me of the catapillar from Alice in Wonderland "words mean what I want them to mean".

Posted by: todler at August 19, 2010 05:21 AM (fPOY0)

20 Can't wait till January till my taxes go up and Obama tries to blame Repubs. Yippieeeeeeeeee!

Posted by: Mr Pink at August 19, 2010 05:22 AM (T3gUk)

21 I kid you not, the CNBC front page article says this:

"yet another setback to the frail economic recovery."

Rule Number 1:  When jobless claims never go much south of 450,000 per week...THERE IS NO RECOVERY.

Posted by: Circa (Insert Year Here) at August 19, 2010 05:23 AM (NvFZs)

22 8 And Soros is bailing his money out of American companies.

Weeeeeeeeeeeee!

Posted by: Mr Pink at August 19, 2010 09:15 AM (T3gUk)

Defination of evil. Has this guy reproduced? Is there a George Jr, we have to worry about? I hope to God he doesn't try to freeze himself. I'll be "Khan" all over again.

Posted by: dagny at August 19, 2010 05:23 AM (uBy/h)

23
Anybody here remember the generics of the Carter years? Stuff that came in plain white packages, their contents marked in big black letters?

They'll be making a comeback soon.

Posted by: Ed Anger at August 19, 2010 05:24 AM (7+pP9)

24 I resent the sneer at Dollar Tree. They sell many delicious foodlike substances that form the core of my weekly diet.

When the rest of you blow through your dwindling savings on fancy Walmart products and end up eating government surplus Soylent Blue, I'll still be feasting on hydrolized soy protein with chicken meat and chicken byproducts added, only slightly expired loaves of Arnold bread and lentils canned in Surinam.


Posted by: Little Miss Spellcheck at August 19, 2010 05:25 AM (xqhoO)

25

HOPE AND CHANGE!

I HOPE I can stay employed so I don't end up begging for CHANGE on the sidewalk!

Posted by: FreedomFighter at August 19, 2010 05:25 AM (XHR9b)

26 Can't wait till January till my taxes go up and Obama tries to blame Repubs. Yippieeeeeeeeee!

Posted by: Mr Pink at August 19, 2010 09:22 AM (T3gUk)


That dumb maniac Pete Stark already called the Bush tax cut expiration a "republican tax hike".

Posted by: The Mega Independent at August 19, 2010 05:26 AM (+A1oI)

27

"Defination of evil. Has this guy reproduced? Is there a George Jr, we have to worry about? "

I haven't been attacked by toilet Ghoulies recently, so I assume not.

Posted by: Joanie (Oven Gloves) at August 19, 2010 05:27 AM (HaYO4)

28

I resent the sneer at Dollar Tree. They sell many delicious foodlike substances that form the core of my weekly diet.

Try their toothpaste. Minty and very filling!

Posted by: Ed Anger at August 19, 2010 05:27 AM (7+pP9)

29 EdAnger@23: I loved that in the movie Repo Man, where Otto ate from generic cans labeled "Food" and chugged from cans labeled "Drink."

Most prophetic. Movie. Ever.

Posted by: Little Miss Spellcheck at August 19, 2010 05:28 AM (xqhoO)

30 It's a good thing the stimulus prevented the unemployment rate from going over 8%

Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 19, 2010 05:29 AM (1Jaio)

31

Posted by: Little Miss Spellcheck at August 19, 2010 09:25 AM (xqhoO)

You forgot the mechanically separated chicken in there.

Posted by: Johnnyreb at August 19, 2010 05:30 AM (JSetw)

32 Anybody here remember the generics of the Carter years? Stuff that came in plain white packages, their contents marked in big black letters?

They'll be making a comeback soon.

Posted by: Ed Anger at August 19, 2010 09:24 AM (7+pP9)



Chris Rock: " Hmmm... 'Puffed Rice'... then you turn the box over. 'Ingredients: Look on da front!' "

 

Posted by: The Mega Independent at August 19, 2010 05:31 AM (+A1oI)

33
This anecdotal stuff about how bad some morons and 'ettes have it hurts my soul. 

Posted by: Dang Straights at August 19, 2010 05:32 AM (fx8sm)

34 Not to worry, they also revised last week's new claims upwards, so the increase this week wasn't that bad.

Posted by: mugiwara at August 19, 2010 05:35 AM (KI/Ch)

35 34 Well I'm doing good but I live outside DC and I work on a DHS contract. I did hear though last time TSA opened up new hirings for fed positions they got 30000 resumes for one job posting.

Posted by: Mr Pink at August 19, 2010 05:36 AM (T3gUk)

36

Jesus Christ.  This is bad, people.

My husband just interviewed for a federal government job in Washington.  I hate him going to work for these clowns,  but it looks like I have zero job prospects for the foreseeable future and we need the money.  We can't sell our house because it needs $20,000 of work done and we don't have it and can't borrow it.  We're basically fucked unless this economy comes back pretty damn fast.  Or my mom dies soon and I get my inheritance before she spends it all.

Posted by: rockmom at August 19, 2010 05:37 AM (w/gVZ)

37 Dang, don't weep for me. I'm starting four more years of education, and by the time I'm finished, I'll have my choice of government jobs paying somewhere in the low-middle five figures.

Posted by: Little Miss Spellcheck at August 19, 2010 05:37 AM (xqhoO)

38 I personally have had to field further and further away form my refrigerator box to find prime hobo grounds.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at August 19, 2010 05:38 AM (C1H86)

39 And Soros is bailing his money out of American companies.

Soros is just one of the "publicized" institutional investors. Look for all of them to start bailing soon. There was never a real reason for the market to be as high as it was.

Get ready for tanking market II as this summer ends in October, the traditional tanking month.

Posted by: Vic at August 19, 2010 05:40 AM (/jbAw)

40 #24 - heh.

Posted by: Alvin Greene at August 19, 2010 05:41 AM (WvXvd)

41

Aug. 19 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading indicators probably climbed in July for the second time in four months, extending a see-saw pattern that indicates slower growth through the end of the year, economists said before a report today.

It probably climbed. You mean the experts have no idea?

A report today showed more Americans unexpectedly filed claims for jobless benefits last week, while figures from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia later this day may show manufacturing in the region expanded.

Did the report actually say it was unexpected?

The economy will likely be the top issue in the November mid-term elections, with Republicans trying to regain control of Congress. Republican lawmakers are critical of President Barack ObamaÂ’s efforts to overhaul health-care policy and financial regulations, as well as the $862 billion stimulus measure, as economic growth and hiring have fallen short of some administration projections.

Poor widdle Barry's his efforts have fallen short and now those EVIL Republicans are going to try to use that against him

Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 19, 2010 05:43 AM (1Jaio)

42 You're going to hear a lot of sotto voce mutterings from economists about the "new normal" for the economy: not quite the "lost decade" of Japan, but it's going to be a long plateau of about 3% growth in GDP per year (which is effectively no growth at all because it won't keep pace with the population increase). Basically, the US jobs engine is vapor-locked -- the old industries are either saturated or dying off, and there aren't any promising new technologies or industries on the horizon to pick up the slack. Part of the problem is the workforce. Certain fields are still in high demand, but these are in the "knowledge worker" category (computer programmers, etc.) and demand a level of mobility and wage-flexibility that lock out many otherwise-qualified people. So you have a huge segment of the population (blue collar and service workers, mostly) who are looking at a very hard job market for years to come. This problem is basically unsolvable because "retraining" is not practical -- you can't take a 40-ish carpenter or waitress and turn them into a software engineer in six months or a year. And even if you could, the mobility/wage issue would still be a barrier. It's easy to move when you're 20 and don't own anything; it's much harder when you have a mortgage, familial connections for both you and your spouse, and kids in school. The US economy is going to need to change to some other model, much as it did during the 1980's transition from industrial/manufacturing to a service/information-based economy. I have a feeling that this transition is going to be tough one, because it's going to mean that a lot of people get used to being "permanent contract labor" -- i. e., the notion of working full-time for a single employer for a period of years is going to be pretty much a thing of the past for a lot of folks.

Posted by: Monty at August 19, 2010 05:47 AM (/0a60)

43 Well,  here are some things from the Carter years I remember (besides the generic foodstuff):

Soy/ground beef mixture sold in grocery meat departments,  because people couldn't afford 100% meat ground beef

Gas lines due to shortages

Winter office thermostats set at 65 degrees.  (My hands were perpetually cold.)

Half Price Books was founded in 1972,  no doubt due to  seeing a potential in used books because people couldn't afford new.

McDonald's started serving their cheap breakfast items (Egg McMuffin) in the 70's.

The ever-popular "Misery Index" was invented by the press.

Fun times!  You youngsters will learn the meaning of "adapt or die."

Posted by: Miss Marple (redneck teabagger) at August 19, 2010 05:47 AM (bixjr)

44 The past few weeks it has been reported that walmart has raised their prices. I find that silly because anyone who shops would notice that they have never been much lower, if at all, than competitors.

And those on food stamps are still buying crap most people who don't have food stamps, have cut back on.


Posted by: beasn at August 19, 2010 05:49 AM (aiWtu)

45

I'm really serious here:

Boehner and the Republicans should have a giant press conference next week.  They should announce a serious promise to turn this economy around starting in January.  NO new regulations.  NO new taxes.  Repeal ObamaCare.  Sell Fannie and Freddie or shut them down.  Force EPA to withdraw the greenhouse gas rules. End the offshore drilling moratorium.  End the "Stimulus" and take back all unused funds.  Sell the government's shares of GMAC and GM and Chrysler.  Pass a free trade agreement with Colombia and hold up every appointment by Obama until he signs the damn thing.  Pass a budget in February that cuts spending across the board by 10% and cuts federal employee salaries and pensions by 15%. 

Watch the Dow go up by 500 points.

Posted by: rockmom at August 19, 2010 05:50 AM (w/gVZ)

46 Ok GOP, polls show that Americans are pissed that Imam Obama has done nothing but further erode the economy. Sure you could run on this issue, but do you really want your party to sink to that level? The honorable thing would be for you to praise what a great job he's done in Iraq... please?

Posted by: Mark Halperin at August 19, 2010 05:51 AM (KI/Ch)

47 Remember when seniors and welfare recipients "living on a fixed income" were objects of pity?

Posted by: Little Miss Spellcheck at August 19, 2010 05:54 AM (xqhoO)

48

But..but...but....Barry was in that backyard yesterday talking to about a dozen Kool Aid drinkers telling them that we are on the right track and how he's turned everything around.

Posted by: TheQuietMan at August 19, 2010 05:56 AM (1Jaio)

49 My wife delivered all four of our children at the Dollar Tree Birthing Center. Real nice people. Great deal, too. Something like $40 a pop. $50 if you let the stock guys take pictures. Some of those shots turned out really nice. The ones with the guys acting all crazy and shit by my old lady's junk were pretty funny. Good times.

Posted by: Dang at August 19, 2010 05:57 AM (Chg7a)

50

The past few weeks it has been reported that walmart has raised their prices. I find that silly because anyone who shops would notice that they have never been much lower, if at all, than competitors.

I have to drive 35 minutes to the nearest Walmart or Costco or Sam's Club.  It isn't worth the gas money and time for me.  I do shop some at K-Mart which is in my town.  I clip coupons and use the grocery store savings cards, and I almost never buy groceries that are not on sale.  I buy stuff at Rite-aid and Walgreen's and CVS if the prices are better there on things like cereal and coffee.  I have a small Kohl's charge account which has been a life-saver for kids' clothes and shoes. 

I haven't shopped in a mall store in over a year.  I haven't been in one of my town's cute boutiques in almost two years.  A fair number of those boutiques have closed or are about to.  We're all making do with what we have, and as the Boomers get older we don't need as much fashion. 

 

Posted by: rockmom at August 19, 2010 05:58 AM (w/gVZ)

51 They can still afford to drink brand name Kool Aid!
Of course these uppity rich bastards support Obama.

Posted by: Little Miss Spellcheck at August 19, 2010 05:59 AM (xqhoO)

52
I have a gift for the democrats.  A clue, as it were.  Paul Krugman, the left's economic mascot, is wrong about everything.  So...
clue #2.
Until PelosiCare is repealed, businesses are not going to hire. Democrats have created an economic climate in America that is toxic. 

Posted by: Lemon Kitten at August 19, 2010 05:59 AM (0fzsA)

53 I'm thisclose to selling all my gold.  But something tells me that might be all I have of value in another year or two.

Posted by: rockmom at August 19, 2010 06:00 AM (w/gVZ)

54

Downsized Upscale,

Moved to Pittsburgh, Pa. from California and had no idea about the State Store thing. Rude awakening. A $3.99 bottle of imported French wine that I used to get from Trader Joes in California cost $9.99 here in Pa. Friggin' racket it is. 

 

Posted by: Weimdog at August 19, 2010 06:01 AM (CSh9B)

55 We sure as hell have spent our way out of this recession, haven't we you fucking sidekick of the jug-eared fuck?


Posted by: jimmuy at August 19, 2010 06:01 AM (jXG2x)

56 Until PelosiCare is repealed, businesses are not going to hire. Democrats have created an economic climate in America that is toxic.

PelosiCare, plus Cap'n Trade, tax increases, regulations, deficit spending, anti-growth policies...

This economy is being scared to death.

Posted by: nickless at August 19, 2010 06:02 AM (MMC8r)

57 I think the next big effort at turning the economy around from this Administration is going to be some kind of payroll-tax holiday. It's really the only kind of "stimulus" that would a) get GOP support, and b) have an immediate impact by putting more money in people's pockets. The Donks might also push it as a way of cheering up the "sour" voters prior to election day. But the Democrats will ensure that this "tax holiday" will have so many restrictions, rules, clauses, and exceptions that simply administering it will cost more money than it saves. Thus it will have the dual effect of killing tax revenues *and* increasing the deficit without doing fuck-all to improve the economy. Just like TARP, HAMP, etc.

Posted by: Monty at August 19, 2010 06:05 AM (/0a60)

58 45 The past few weeks it has been reported that walmart has raised their prices. I find that silly because anyone who shops would notice that they have never been much lower, if at all, than competitors.

And those on food stamps are still buying crap most people who don't have food stamps, have cut back on.


Posted by: beasn at August 19, 2010 09:49 AM (aiWtu)

I personally saw WalMart here in CT raise prices one week and then put one of those "rollback" stickers on the item, rolling it back to the original price the next week.  I would not have noticed, but it was Hillshire Farms Kielbasa and we buy two packs a week, and they were $2.50 a pack for nearly two years until that little sleight of hand.

Posted by: Johnnyreb at August 19, 2010 06:05 AM (y67bA)

59

Not enough money left for Wally World. Last time I was in one it was virtually empty, cashiers standing around.

The Wal-Marts near my place still seem to be doing okay, but I couldn't tell you what their overall sales are compared to last year.  From what I understand, after the depression hit they actually began reporting their profits differently (semi-annual vs. quarterly, or something like that) because their profit margins were dropping for the first time ever.

The most annoying thing about Wal-Marts, particularly the big superstores, is that they always seem to have no more than 4-5 cashiers for 20 lanes.  What's the point of opening up a big-ass store if you aren't even going to staff it appropriately?

Related to the post, that 500K number is absolutely horrible.  The rolling average has been 450K for about eight months now.  It needs to be south of 400K and dropping for  there to indicate an actual recovery going on.  If the UE claims are heading back up again, we are officially in a full-blown, 1931-style, Herbert Hoover depression--keep in mind there was a brief "recovery" during that time period and then, bam, everything went right off the cliff.

Funny how when the housing bubble popped, leftists were talking about the death of capitalism; this depression might actually see the death of neo-Keynesianism.  The Democrats can't run an FDR as an upstart in 2012--Obama is their FDR, and he's already in office, fired those bullets, and failed.

Posted by: Red Rocks Rockin' at August 19, 2010 06:05 AM (/Pw+r)

60

I am in the DC area, which is doing better than most places.  I am changing jobs and they are hiring a couple of people to backfill for me (yeah, I'm that good - my record was 3 people hired to replace me!) 

Anyway, 2 positions, over 400 resumes already.

Wow. 

Posted by: blaster at August 19, 2010 06:06 AM (SdFa6)

61 I am one of those 500,000.  FU Barack.  Yay!  I finally feel part of something!  2nd time in two years. 

Posted by: tim harkins at August 19, 2010 06:08 AM (i0fSl)

62

You have to be careful of same store sales comparisons - sometimes the numbers show better performance than what is really going on. Poorly performing stores may have been closed down. People may be moving from higher priced grocery stores/malls/etc. and shopping more at Wal-Mart. Competitors may have closed stores near Wal-Mart stores allowing Wal-Mart to show gains not from increased spending but from fewer places to shop.

A year ago I read an article about a boat company that increased same store sales over 40% yet they were heading straight into bankruptcy. They had closed about half their stores (the poorer performing ones) and most of their competitors had closed their doors altogether at the same time. The options on where to buy a new small boat became very slim.

Just because same store sales are up doesn't mean that anything is really improving.

Posted by: markytom at August 19, 2010 06:13 AM (ZG9as)

63

also of note is that the prior weeks number was adjusted up 4,000 so this weeks number is actually 16,000 above last weeks initial number ...

if you look at the long term chart of these numbers from April '09 to about Jan '10 the trend was aiming at getting back down to less than 300K by Oct '10 ...

but at around Jan '10 it abruptly stopped its downward trend and leveled off and now looks to be turning back up ...

Gee, I wonder what happened to cause this change in business attitude ?

Dec 24 2009 Senate passes ObamaCare ...

March 21 2010 Houses passes ObamaCare ...

just a coincidence I'm sure ...

Posted by: Jeff at August 19, 2010 06:14 AM (A3tpD)

64 Remember when seniors and welfare recipients "living on a fixed income" were objects of pity?

The thing that makes me mad is that my family has been living on a fixed income for years. My husband hadn't seen a raise from his employer, not even a cost of living one, for several years. Then he got let go this winter, and ended up taking a contractor government job at about a 30% pay cut. Yes, I hate that it's a government job, but at least it's with the Dept. of Defense, which is one of the few things the government *should* be doing.

Posted by: Barb the Evil Genius at August 19, 2010 06:16 AM (5aVkt)

65 Just received this email:
"Dear Friend,

With John working so hard in Washington and spending countless hours campaigning throughout Arizona, I know that he's not paying much attention to the fact that he has a birthday coming up just days after the primary election.

Today, I am writing to request your help. John's birthday is on August 29th, and I very much want you and many of his other loyal friends and supporters to be part of the celebration.

In recent years, I have seen how much it means to John to receive personal birthday wishes from friends like you in Arizona and across the country and I hope that this year will be no different. In fact I hope you will help make this one of his best birthdays ever.

That is why I am asking you to write your personal birthday message to John by following this link today so I can be sure it is included in the special Birthday Album we will present to him.

With this being the toughest reelection John has ever faced, one of the best gifts we can give him is a victory in the Republican primary. That is why I hope you will also consider making a generous contribution of $25, $50, $100 or any other amount up to the $2,400 limit...."

McCain is following the lead of Obama to raise funds? He deserved to lose in 2008.

Posted by: Louie at August 19, 2010 06:17 AM (DTfXb)

66 The most annoying thing about Wal-Marts, particularly the big superstores, is that they always seem to have no more than 4-5 cashiers for 20 lanes.

This is actually the managers fault.  They have X amount of hours per month that they can have employees working.  What happens is that the manager uses these hours up at the beginning of the month having dipshits stand around the pet area/shoe area for a week, and they have no hours left over to man the registers at the end of the month.

Posted by: Rickshaw Jack at August 19, 2010 06:19 AM (C1H86)

67

Pass a budget in February that cuts spending across the board by 10% and cuts federal employee salaries and pensions by 15%. 

Not that this isn't a good idea, but fundamentally speaking, it's a token gesture.  Even with the Iraq pullout, the structural deficit is still going to be north of $1 trillion.  Four things are currently taking up about 67% of government spending--Social Security, Medicare, unemployment, and defense spending, with a shortfall of 37%.  Our interest payments on our debt are about 4.5%, and the various cabinet departments are about 2-3% each.

Even if the government did what the lefties wanted and cut every penny of defense spending, there would still be an 18% shortfall.  Even eliminating the Department of Education, EPA, etc., wouldn't be enough to make an impact, so another of the four Sacred Cows would have to get cut.  Because that would cost votes, it's never going to happen.

Look, I'm a federal employee, and I think giving us all a 15% pay cut is a great idea--hell, I think every govt employee on down to the municipal level should take a pay cut.  But it's just a drop in the bucket compared to what our spending obligations are, and wouldn't really have the kind of structural budget impact that's required.  The math just doesn't allow it.

Posted by: Red Rocks Rockin' at August 19, 2010 06:20 AM (/Pw+r)

68

Markytom, same store sales comparisons are current period sales compared with the same store year ago sales, for stores that have been open for a year.  Closed stores aren't counted, stores that haven't been open a year aren't counted.

It's a very reliable indicator of actual growth that tosses out acquisitions, sell offs, and less than full year anomalies.  Retailers have been using it for, I don't know exactly, for-friggin-ever.

 

Now your other point, that other things affect overall profitability, sure.  I could have same store sales up 5%, run out and buy 130 shitty stores, lay off 3200 people and take the hit in one quarter, and it would certainly affect overall profitability.

Posted by: Alvin Greene at August 19, 2010 06:20 AM (WvXvd)

69 /sockoff

Posted by: Dave in Texas at August 19, 2010 06:23 AM (WvXvd)

70

You have to be careful of same store sales comparisons - sometimes the numbers show better performance than what is really going on.

Agreed.  I remember how the media was crowing about Best Buy's sales increases during the holiday season last year, blatantly ignoring the fact that it's biggest competitor, Circuit City, had shut down. 

Posted by: Red Rocks Rockin' at August 19, 2010 06:23 AM (/Pw+r)

71 Wait...State Store!?!

What the hell is a State Store?

Posted by: Kensington at August 19, 2010 06:26 AM (mEyVv)

72

Red Rocks, well, yeah.  Their biggest competitor ate the schnitz, true.

But see, the funny thing was, Best Buy's sales actually did increase.  They got that additional revenue. 

 

Posted by: Dave in Texas at August 19, 2010 06:27 AM (WvXvd)

73 I start Funemployment on Monday.  Wife is taking a new job and we're moving to NYC for it.  Time to start pounding the pavement, I guess.

Posted by: Techie at August 19, 2010 06:27 AM (eF+uQ)

74 You're just insensitive to the needs of the Johnstown Flood victims. Welcome to Pennsylvania, btw.

LOL, they have been taxing the crap out of alcohol in the South ever since prohibition was repealed. Welcome to the club.

BTW, I'll bet that same bottle of win would cost even more in SC.

Posted by: Vic at August 19, 2010 06:29 AM (/jbAw)

75 State store = liquor stores owned and operated by the state.  Controls tax revenue (lessee, I know PA does this, Alabama does or did)

Posted by: Dave in Texas at August 19, 2010 06:29 AM (WvXvd)

76 "Summer of Recovery" has officially been postponed until summer 2011 (assuming Imam Obama pulls a Clinton with the new Congress, or has already been impeached and hanged for treason by then)

Posted by: mugiwara at August 19, 2010 06:32 AM (KI/Ch)

77

Closed stores aren't counted

Right - but let's say a smaller town has three Wal-Marts open a year-and-a-half ago and then decided to close one 9 months ago. Now there are two. The shoppers that used to shop at the now closed #3 store will be shopping at the #1 and #2 stores INCREASING their sales significantly.

I'm just saying that sometimes the numbers get skewed and companies like to have "good" numbers show up for the investors - there is an incentive for them to spin the numbers in an optimistic way to make things look better than they may be.

Posted by: markytom at August 19, 2010 06:32 AM (ZG9as)

78 Philly Fed manufacturing index went negative, which is an incredibly bad sign. Market down 150. CNBC's Squawk Box this morning was just killing Obama/Pelosi economics , by far the harshest they've ever been. People have reached a point where it's all on this buffoon now- it's about time.

Posted by: jjshaka at August 19, 2010 06:37 AM (otkhx)

79 State store = liquor stores owned and operated by the state. Controls tax revenue (lessee, I know PA does this, Alabama does or did) It's not universal in Minnesota, but there are still a few State Stores around here as well. Blue Earth has one, I think. (Or maybe they're county?)

Posted by: Monty at August 19, 2010 06:46 AM (/0a60)

80 We cannot go back to the failed policies of George Bush.  We must push forward with the failed policies of Europe.  Their going to pull out of this, you just wait and see.  I'm going to look real smrt in two weeks when recovery summer is over and everyone is back from vacation.

Posted by: Barack at August 19, 2010 06:46 AM (N8G0F)

81

>> #2 stores INCREASING their sales significantly

 

Marky, those store sales would not be factored into a "same store sales" calculation.  Only stores that have been open for one year are counted.

I'm probably not saying this correctly or something.  It's "same store" as one year ago.  Has to be open a year.  We compare August 2009 sales to August 2010 for that store.  (actually retail uses weeks but anyway).

Posted by: Dave in Texas at August 19, 2010 06:59 AM (WvXvd)

82

Oh wait, I see what you mean.  Closing an underperformer and driving up #2 and #3.

 

But when your universe of stores is hundreds, or thousands, the effect is negligible.  Not to mention you spent a lot of time figuring out the real estate and dollars per square mile thing.  The thing that happens far more often than what you described is a) Walmart has an old, smaller footprint store.  b) they build a bigger Supercenter with better road access 3 to 10 miles away, and c) close old store.

 

Neither gets counted in SSS factoring

Posted by: Dave in Texas at August 19, 2010 07:02 AM (WvXvd)

83

"State store?"

It gets better...as a former resident of California's Central Coast, I used to belong to a few wine clubs. But wine shipments into Pennsylvania are illegal, so I had to cancel my memberships. So not only am I forced to buy wine at inflated prices, I can't even ship in my own favorites. I addition, the liquor board decides what wines can be sold in the state, so many small wineries are shut out and are not available at all. So, the wine choices in the entire state are not determined by the market, but by some desk jockey in Harrisburg who probably gets kick-backs from large wine brokers.

Just nuts.

Posted by: Weimdog at August 19, 2010 07:04 AM (CSh9B)

84 I was walking around the Santa Anita Mall yesterday picking up a birthday present for my daughter when I decided to treat myself to a chocolate malt from Dairy Queen. I order the chocolate malt and the lady behind the counter says we don't have chocolate ice cream. I ask, "oh is your machine broken?". She responds, "No, we only sell chocolate on weekends." WTF?!?!? Business is that slow, and/or you are cutting costs that much that you can't have two flavors of freaking ice cream? I fear this is where the country is heading... you can have anything you want as along as it's vanilla.

Posted by: KLL at August 19, 2010 07:09 AM (/5Axw)

85 Fox babe just on trying to spin this story with someone from Moody's.

This is the second time I have seen her bend over backwards to spin a story for this adm.

Too bad all those good looks are wasted on a libtard. 

Posted by: Vic at August 19, 2010 07:14 AM (/jbAw)

86

Having moved from Pennsylvania to California, I would rather pay more for booze than state income taxes and all the other California BS.

I can buy a shitload of booze in PA with the money saved in not paying CA taxes and have change left over.

Posted by: KLL at August 19, 2010 07:15 AM (/5Axw)

87 This is anecdotal but for my offering to the Wal-Mart I note that the days you don't want to try to get in our local super center have increased from Fri and Sat, to Mon, Thu, Fri, Sat, and Sun afternoon.

Also, back when the collapse first happened all the news organizations were reporting that Wal-Mart sales were up as customers shifted from more upscale to stores to discount stores.

Based on what I see here I firmly believe that is true.  

Posted by: Vic at August 19, 2010 07:17 AM (/jbAw)

88 #78

"Imam Obama"

LOL.

I'm totally going to start using that.

Posted by: shibumi at August 19, 2010 07:23 AM (OKZrE)

89 I can buy a shitload of booze in PA with the money saved in not paying CA taxes and have change left over.

Depending on where you are at it should be easy to drive out of State to stock up as well. Just don't go South.

Posted by: Vic at August 19, 2010 07:25 AM (/jbAw)

90 Kudlow better get Geithner back on to explain how the unwashed have things wrong.

Posted by: ed at August 19, 2010 07:38 AM (Urhve)

91 Shoppers are quitting Walmart for DollarTree to spend their share of Osama's stash.

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at August 19, 2010 07:56 AM (i6UsH)

92

Brew your own.

Whiners.

Posted by: Rat Patrol at August 19, 2010 07:57 AM (dQdrY)

93

I 2nd what Downsized said.

I thought I would be getting a better deal in Pa. But it turns out Pa. is worse than Ca. as far as taxes go. Not to mention the cost of living... Friggin' heating and air-conditioning bills will kill you.

Posted by: Weimdog at August 19, 2010 07:58 AM (CSh9B)

94 24 re: canned lentils

Seriously, when thing start to go Carter for us (and we lived through Carter once already and will be there again in 3,2,1...) we go to the local Asian food mart and stock up on rice, dried beans and dried lentils. All you need to buy after that are potatoes, onions, fruits, vegs, dairy, and occasionally stock up on spices. We eat four star Indian for pennies a day. What I hated about the Carter years the most was having to bleach the baby's diapers, etc., in the sink because we couldn't afford the washing machines in the apartment. Fortunately diaper days are over.

Posted by: gail at August 19, 2010 08:30 AM (f46PC)

95 And I'm already baking my own bread.

Posted by: gail at August 19, 2010 08:32 AM (f46PC)

96

This doesn't smell like "recovery' to me . . . from the Wal-Mart article:

The profit results slightly surpassed analyst expectations, but the revenue figure fell short, and the company said that even steep U.S. discounts failed to lift sales.

If Wal-Mart can't increase sales by dropping prices, who can?

Posted by: markytom at August 19, 2010 09:23 AM (ZG9as)

97 I saw a "Coming Soon - Dollar Tree" sign up in one of the upscale neighborhoods here. Right between the half-million and million dollar homes, or what used to be.

Seems to be the only growth sector, well, that and tax sponges.

Posted by: Merovign, Strong on His Mountain at August 19, 2010 09:53 AM (bxiXv)

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Posted by: bag making machine at January 19, 2011 08:29 PM (mvyUA)

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Posted by: vacuum forming machine at January 19, 2011 08:30 PM (mvyUA)

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