1
that's a TALL order, bub

2 One more time: don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good--see how much more concise that is?

3 Uh oh.

4 Yeah, it's not going to happen.

I don't believe CA is nearly as in play as people think (and that was before the Demonic Sheep debacle) and NY isn't either.

NY will only be fun for the Ford/Gillibrand primary. Unless...Pataki gets in.

Still, we're likely to get the House and some impressive scalps in the Senate. Not bad for a group that was supposed to have gone the way of the Whigs about 14 months ago.

5 I think by November if things are going to be as bad as I think they are going to be, the Republicans can run on a message of " whatever Obama is for, we're against" and take back the House and come close in the Senate. Also- the Democrats are screwed in 2012- 24 of the Senate races have a D incumbent. There may be an open revolt against Barry by then in his own party.

6 Connecticut could get added to the list once Blumenthal has to start campaigning.  The guy's an idiot and an asshole, so Rob Simmons will likely get under his skin and then embarrass him like Glen Beck did.

7 If the national mood remains the same, the first 8 are very doable (the first 5 would be virtual locks). Even with Pataki, I doubt any Republican from my own home state could beat even a weak Gillibrand. Boxer will win by default because Fiorina is too distasteful to the conservatives and DeVore is too conservative to win a statewide election with ALL that built in Democratic advantage (illegals voting). Campbell is an unknown element at this time.

Even if the Dems retain a one or two seat advantage, the Senate would be basically nullified for the next two years, no Obama agenda legislation will survive through it.

8
Mallamutt & Illinois-ians,

Did Kirk run tv ads? If yes, did he sound like a conservative or a moderate in his commercials?

9 right, well, even if we don't take the Senate now, we need to get CLOSE to taking it, so that in 2012 -- when the economy will be in weak expansion, and Obama will be on the ticket with all his cultists now energized to vote -- is even possible. It is not NORMAL for so many Senate Seats to be at risk to the other party. The best we can hope for in 2012 is to have like a +3 or +4 sort of year, so we had better not be 5 or more down after 2010.

10 Dino Rossi could most definitely beat Patty Murray in Washington state if he gets into the race.  In fact, I'd put it at better than 50/50 despite needing a large enough margin to offset King County cheating.

11 Did Kirk run tv ads? If yes, did he sound like a conservative or a moderate in his commercials?

Posted by: This is Randolph Mantooth at February 04, 2010 02:40 PM (jVldi)

I don't remember seeing many if any Kirk ads. In fact, I think I read that he didn't spend much on his primary campaign and has a large war chest for the general election. He had name recognition that his opponents didn't.

12 Ace, why not Schumer?   I mean he must be concerned, he turned on a dime as regard the trials in NYC when you know he didn't want to.  The problem with him is that the republicans are his enablers.  They assume they can't win and they don't even try.   They need to put up someone against him who can clean his clock.  Wish Peter King would run against him.  Then he'd have to raise money and actually be part of a race.   Heck wish Hillary would run against him.   The republicans need to put someone up against him and not allow him to run under the radar until the election where  he coast to a 71% majority of voters.  No one should have 71% of the vote, that's obscene, no wonder the guy is so ball z.

13 Agree with #5; at least, it seems most thinking people are fed up with how the Dems are running/ruining things...even here in the DC metro area...... Just look at Pelosi's tab for flying hither and thither. You know if a Repub did that the Dems would spit nails and demand an exit for whomever....

14 >>> Ace, why not Schumer? No poll has even hinted he is remotely at risk.

15

you still have to hold on to the 5 open Republican seats (NH, Missouri, Ohio, Florida and Kentucky

Keep an eye on Rob Portman in OH. He'll win pretty the senate seat pretty easily.

He'll be a force for shaping sensible policy. Dude is smart as shit, with a great resume...and a cool calm demeanor. He won't be a grandstander...he'll be a senate version of Paul Ryan..

..just not as young and cute..not that I'm gay or anything..and not that there would be anything wrong with that

16 Morons powers activate!
Form of...
Circular firing squad!
Form of...
Bacon wrapped flaming water balloons!

17

The next Senator from Delaware is a "RINO", as are the most likely republican winners in New York and California.  We need every single one of them.

I'm perfectly OK with bashing Lindsay Graham for his liberal votes, because South Carolina is ONE OF THE MOST CONSERVATIVE STATES IN THE COUNTRY.  Illinois, Delaware, New York, Cal and Mass are far from that.

18 "I mean, were I personally the one doling out the Golden Opportunities, and I saw the people I gave it to turning their noses up at as if it were dogshit, I don't think I'd be eager to drop another one in their laps."

Like a 60 vote supermajority in the Senate, a huge majority in the House, and the Presidency all at the same time?

one other thing:  Neveda.

Is that in honor of Massachusettes?

19 As the old-time Catholic ladies say - Light a candle . . .

20 Posted by: beedubya at February 04, 2010 02:46 PM (AnTyA)

somewhere i read a comment that the constituent complained to Ryan that the constituent did not want the healthcare bill at all.   Apparently he received a letter back saying that Ryan was willing to compromise on the health care bill.  The constituent was asking "what about me not wanting it at all didn't this guy get".   so, even if he is a republican, if he isn't listening to the people who voted him in, he's going to learn the hard way.  Think he might be taking the advice of the wrong people.  Casue he doesn't seem like that type.   To totally miss the constituents' point.

21 Kicking Boxer out in CA is a dream. Won't happen. For some reason, Republicans can't run a decent candidate against her. And there are just too many D's in SF and LA. She's an idiot, but they don't care.

22 All of us morons need to quit praying and go buy a lottery ticket.

If you don't understand go ask Ace.

23 There may be an open revolt against Barry by then in his own party. What form would that take? It's very hard to imagine the Demotards openly rejecting Lord Earflaps McBaritone and his Historical Goodness. I want to believe they will revolt, but I can't see it. Just too much racial and identity political baggage there. That's why even if Barry keeps sodomizing that poultry for the next two years, I nevertheless do not think anyone will seriously challenge his Demotard candidacy for 2012.

24 2 One more time: don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good--see how much more concise that is?

Posted by: ECM at February 04, 2010 02:37 PM (nYKDd)

I was thinking just that when I clicked on the comments section. I used to think Ace was too much of a squish, but now realize he's a hard-core pragmatist. If you pay attention, the congressional district/state will tell you who is electable. In those places where we can get a red meat conservative we need to do that. In placed where we can't, in 9 out of 10 instances, a RINO will still be better than almost any Democrat.

25 "14 >>> Ace, why not Schumer?

No poll has even hinted he is remotely at risk.

Posted by: ace at February 04, 2010 02:46 PM (jlvw3)"

They didn't think Tom Suozzi was at risk one iota, boy were they surprised.  And the guy in Westchester who was "a fixture", another huge surprise.  NYer's might be liberal but they certainly aren't stupid.  My point was at least make him work for it, the republicans should give him a run for his money.

26
thanks, QuietMan

but I did find one Kirk ad -- he claims to be a fiscal conservative (yet he voted for the biggest tax scam in the name of Cap & Trade)

27 ace, for the sake of argument on the 'Kirk's as conservative as we can get' I feel compelled to point out that there wasn't really much of a primary because the conservatives got in too late because no one thought it was worth the expense (yes, I see the obvious counter there).  We had the usual regional candidates and not much coverage (and I never saw ads for anyone other than Kirk and Hughes), so there's a fair argument to make that Kirk won on name recognition.

It's a weak argument so I'm not going to push it (moreso because turnout was really low, at or under 30%, I think), I'd just like the marker down for the race against Durbin.  We can probably afford to push more to the right the next time around, we just need to start early.

28 I wish Schumer wasn't going to be a shoe-in. It'd be nice if somebody step up to take him on. That guy is hated.

29 If the assumption is that the party of Coolidge is going to take the house then do we want them to have the senate too?  Gridlock is our friend.

30
Here is some dude named Dan Seals giving Mark Kirk what we kids used to call the business.

31 Kirk did not run much on TV, but neither did ANY of the other ® Senate candidates in IL. We had a TON of Governor ads - both sides - and Lexi the Mad Mobster was on the tv a lot. But not much from Kirk. On the radio interviews I heard him on, he "sounded Conservative". And he IS conservative in fiscal and defense matters. He's strong on defense. Ex-Navy. Currently Naval Reserve Officer. Did time in Iraq and Afghanistan. He's a smooth talker too. Knows what to say and what not to say. GOOD campaigner. I voted for Hughes. Here's the tale of the numbers though. WHERE were all the Tea-Partiers? Turnout statewide was in the 25-30% range! With numbers THAT low, you'd think that 100% of the "Conservative Teabaggers" would've hit the polls. But ALL FIVE of the other contenders together only got 35% to Cap'n Kirks 65%. I HONESTLY believe (as I had this VERY thought before I decided to pull the lever for Hughes) that most IL Republicans are smart enough to know, that in THIS state, to have a CHANCE IN HELL of winning a statewide race... you MUST be more moderate. Hughes also had a big "WHO?" factor. He just joined the Rep party a short time ago, and according to what I read, didn't even VOTE until recently. He was not a winner in the General against the Daley/Madigan Dem Machine. I voted for him anyway, just on principle, almost sure that he had no chance against the Cap'n.

32 To pull this off we're gonna need alot of help from Obama. Can you say "In like Flint"?

33 I agree with everything in that post except use of the term "mitzvah".

34 Taking a step back... Suppose that we win the lottery and we take back the Senate and House, 2010. We would still lack votes for a veto override. Given that the galaxy-sized budget will eventually have to squeeze its titanic thighs through both Chambers, and even if we postulate that the budget which finally passes miraculously emerges ten percent smaller than what is proposed, what then? The budget will still be large enough to sink the economy. My question is how can a GOP Congress in narrow majority hope to pare down the deficits and budgets that look positively surreal?

35 Don't be a bunch of fucking eeyores!

We can and must do this.

Ignore the argument that this will help Obama if the GOP has real power.  We're in trouble as a country and need to really do something about spending.  Even a switch to the overspending of 2005 would save America TRILLIONS.

Obama has a lot of red meat waiting for the GOP to eat if they have the ability to hold hearing in Congress.  IG, ACORN, Census, Black Panthers, KSM, GITMO, the underwear bomber.

And if it helps Obama that's because it ultimately helped America.  I think it's too late for Obama, and am just concerned with the consequences of democrat power.

36

Posted by: curious at February 04, 2010 02:48 PM

Without seeing the comment you reference or the correspondence between Ryan and his constituent, I cannot comment on that.

What I have seen about his positions on healthcare make sense...a tax rebate..and opening the insurance market up to competition. I'm self-insured and it's pretty costly.

Giving me my money..or at least a good part of it..back and allowing for more comapanies to choose from I think is are sensible

37 You're preachin' to the choir here Ace. After all...I did vote McCain.

38

Yeah, it's not going to happen.

I don't believe CA is nearly as in play as people think (and that was before the Demonic Sheep debacle) and NY isn't either.

Defeatist.

Clearly your pessimism is driven by the fact that you have neglected to take into account the possibility that Fred Thompson will enter the race.  In both CA and NY. 

39

One other mitigating factor in the election of RINO's; they still affect the leadership and control of the various commitees.

This is similar to why it was important to vote for a George Bush or John McCain. They get to pick the Supremes, which has a far outweighs the president's importance.

40

Scott Brown will be the most liberal GOP-er in the Senate, meaning he's the 60th most liberal senator.  The person he replaced about #1 on the list.

If Kirk is elected, he'll be somewhere in the 50s in the "most liberal" list, if he loses the Ill senator will be in the low teens.

In other words, it's far more important to elect him than if the alternative was a moderate Dem we'd be replacing with a moderate Repub.  The whole idea is to get the senate as a whole more conservative.  Getting rid of the most liberal members and replacing them with even moderate people is a huge shift to the right in the senate overall.

41 neveda-nevada

42 I refuse to elect any politician who doesn't care deeply about whether dudes are getting it on with each other. Also, libertarians screw dogs.

43
Wait. That's not Dan Seals, is it? That's that Gianoulsisisus guy, right?

44

It's already starting:

Quinn expects Cohen to leave guv. race ticket over abuse claim Feb. 04, 2010

(AP) — Illinois Gov. Pat Quinn says he expects Scott Lee Cohen ultimately will have to step down as the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor over charges that he once abused his girlfriend.

Quinn called Thursday for Cohen to answer all questions about his 2005 arrest for domestic battery. But Quinn says he thinks Cohen will end up dropping out of the race.

Illinois voters choose the nominees for governor and lieutenant governor separately. Quinn and Cohen did not campaign together, but now they make up the Democratic ticket.

Quinn says he learned of the allegations after Tuesday's election.

Cohen was charged with holding a knife to the woman's throat and pushing her head against a wall. Cohen denies the allegations. Charges were dropped after the girlfriend missed a court date.

45 With luck, Barry will campaign hard for Harry Reid in Nevada.  There's a lot of SEIU there, but people there don't love Barry right now.  Surely he'll crap on them again before next fall.

46 Posted by: Mallamutt at February 04, 2010 02:50 PM (V9SYy)

Oh, I apologize  to you both.  I think NYer's are sort of tired of being a laughing stock, second only to california.   I mean, in what other state, could a former first lady, who never lived in the state, swoop in, buy an estate (with whose money btw) and run for senate, and win???   They've been hit in their core, you take down Wall Street and Business and you literally have begun taking down NY.   Maybe all those out of work stock brokers don't feel like voting for dear old chuckie, maybe they feel he doesn't have their interests at heart.  Their houses have lost value, their mortgage, in most cases in larger than their home value cause a lot of them refinanced almost yearly to "get the cash out and put it to better use in the market or to buy another house or an education or a car or whatever"  and maybe they aren't feeling so cheery towards good old chuck.  Maybe instead of being afraid of Chuckie the republicans and conservatives should take advantage of the climate and really put someone up against him who could possibly win.  Miracles do happen, look at MA, VA and NJ

47 Jim in San Diego, THANK YOU. I considered it a great triumph when you said "Ace is starting to convince me that winning is the name of the game," or something like that. See my update on Hughes. I stayed out of it so as not to sabotage his chances but Illinois readers who wrote me made a clear case for Kirk. But I shut up. I let the true-blue conservative have his chance without my attempt to thwart him. He got trounced. We have to accept that elections are not random. People win for reasons. Kirk won for a reason. Kirk is ahead in the polls for a reason. He's a good politician. He's a winner.

48 Good list, I like the possibilities.  I would switch Colo and Illinois though.  I am sticking with my 47 R prediction for the Senate.

49 #24 I'm only thinking that if things continue to fall apart (economy, a terrorist attack that was preventable) there would be open talk of a primary challenge. Kennedy came very close to getting carter in 1980 and I have to believe that there is still a moderate faction in the democrat party that may say "Enough" by 2012. Especially if there is a belief that Barry sinks all types of Democrats. All of this rests upon Obamas ability to "adjust" his political beliefs- but I think the President is a "dead- ender".

50

I'm not good at the url thing, but an article in the NY POst shows Schumers approval rating falling below 50%.  It's actually at 47. 

51 "And we're going to go to Deleware, and we're going to go to Neveda, and Indianna, and.. AAAAAAARGHHHHHH!  Why the hell can't I find these places on my TomTom?"

-- Howerd Deen

52 Kicking Boxer out in CA is a dream. Won't happen. For some reason, Republicans can't run a decent candidate against her

CAJoe, all three of the GOP primary candidates are polling within 4 - 6 points of her right now.  To me, that's mildly encouraging.  Also, I have a high political mucky-muck friend (dem) who was at a fundraiser for her less than 2 weeks ago.  There wasn't one single elected official there.  She does not even have an office in SoCal.  Her supporters, outside of the bay area, are pretty much down to wealthy Jewish ladies.  His words, not mine.

53 Just do whatever you can.  Donate what you can afford to the candidates you like.  Give your time and talents.  Go to TEA rallies.

Don't leave anything on the table you will regret later.  Don't fall for the line that it can't be done.  Much bigger things have happened.

Give 100% and you don't have to have any regrets.  I gave 100% of my time and effort and more than I could afford to John Mccain's 2008 campaign, even though Mccain's a douche.  I did this because I realized who Obama was.

I have no regrets.  Do you?  I hope not.  Don't have any in 2010 either.

54

We have to accept that elections are not random. People win for reasons. Kirk won for a reason. Kirk is ahead in the polls for a reason.

And that reason is that Fred Thompson didn't run.  Yet.

55 Say, a  lot of you saying we can't beat Boxer (of all people)... did you think we could take the Mass. Senate seat months before the election?

Yeah, we absolutely can beat Boxer.  The candidates aren't perfect, but can beat her.  give 100%.

56 The point is good.

You take the candidates that fit into their districts.

A "pure" free market small government hardcore conservative (who is anti-abortion, pro-military, and all the usual positions hated by the left) has as much chance of winning a Senate seat in NY as an openly gay atheist anti-war tax-and-spender has of winning a Senate seat in Alabama.

Yeah, its *possible* for the Republicans to take back the Senate, its just not particularly likely.   I'm certainly not holding my breath.  

One of the big factors animating the Brown win in MA was opposition to healthcare reform.  Guess what. . .that's dead, and its not coming back.  I believe that ALONE is responsible for Obama's recent popularity poll surge.

The more the better, of course, but whether the Republicans end up with 45 seats or 47 seats probably doesn't change all that much in practice.  The big thing is that now the most liberal parts of Obama's agenda are dead. 

57 >>>Yeah, we absolutely can beat Boxer. The candidates aren't perfect, but can beat her. give 100%. Can, yes, but that is... well, that's like one of the toughest possible wins out there.

58

32
Here is some dude named Dan Seals giving Mark Kirk what we kids used to call the business.

The guy in that vid is NOT Dan Seals.  Dan Seals (D) ran 2x against Mark Kirk for the IL-10 congressional seat, Dan Seals is a young, very attractive African-American man - tall, slim, a better looking version of Obama actually.

I don't know who Mr. MotorCycle Man is in that vid, but I have a very sneaking suspicion that he is a good friend of Axelrod, performing a bit of Axelturfing.  He's waaayyy too we-weed up to be a real republican.  There just aren't any republicans like that up here in northern Illinois. 

On the other hand, there are lots of guys like that who are democrats.  My bet is he's a precinct captain and a retired union guy who used to work for state government.  Just a hunch.

 

59
Ace, are you going to support John McCain, too, if he wins his primary? Well, of course you are.

But let me just remind you that right after the election you were so disgusted with McCain (and I assume his mealy-mouthed RINO-maverick campaign) that he insisted he resign and disappear.

_{What's my point? I dunno, I forgot.}

60

8, I didn't see any Kirk ads at all down here -- nothing, nada.  It really isn't about conservative/Republican; it really isn't.  It's about Chicago/downstate for me (and a lot of other people around here).

Any politician who continues to feed that disconnect doesn't make things any better; in fact they make them worse.  I'm sick of having Kirk sold to me -- most of us will vote against Giannoulias, but I'm sick of hearing about what a "nice guy and true conservative" Kirk is.  I really don't give a shit if he's a nice guy or true conservative, or if he's a Republican for that matter -- he has done nothing to convince me that he serves the entire state.

Now, if he gets down here and campaigns and tries to actually listen to and serve the downstate, and more importantly pledges to vote in a manner that at least acknowledges there are people in this state beyond the borders of Cook County, then maybe I'd do more than just support him.  But he. just. hasn't. (not so far any way)

61 BTW, Ace, "mitzva" does not mean a gift from God. It means a commandment from God. It is also used to mean "doing a good deed," as doing good deeds is usually a mitzva in itself. You might say "mechayeh," though.

62 As a reminder for the take the senate in 2012 people, there are going to be 2 SCOTUS soon.  We want the senate now!  Lifetime appointments and all.  We need to moderate O's super liberal leftist judges.

63 I feel compelled to point out that there wasn't really much of a primary because the conservatives got in too late because no one thought it was worth the expense (yes, I see the obvious counter there).  Posted by: Methos

As in, "Whose fucking fault is it that the conservatives were late for the primary?"  That kind of thing?

64 Is Peter Schiff still running in CT?

65 #43

Excellent point.  Just shifting the "center of gravity" of the Senate to the right is a big deal in terms of spending.

Again, you're just NEVER EVER going to have a Senate with a solid majority comprised entirely of ideologically "pure" conservatives.   Its a pipe dream.

I think the best "realistic" case scenario is that you get enough fiscal conservatives in place (and they don't even have to be Republican, though I think they're more likely to be) to temper spending, and finally get some sort of actual entitlement reform passed.

66 You might want to write Indiana a few times too.

67 69  Yeah, dude, Delaware, too, lol!

68 Doubt it. It's still rural Pennsylvania vs. the two cities. Until the mind-set (entitlements, entitlements, entitlements) of the city-folk changes (yeah, right - is that hell freezing over?), there just aren't enough voters in the rural areas to counteract that vote.

Turn out in Philly will be key. There's not a lot of local stuff going on this year (no Mayor or city Council), so it's possible they'll be a low dem turnout here.

Too bad the there is ZERO presence and leadership for the GOP in Philly (outside of Northeast philly). I was at a south philly GOP meet and greet a few weeks ago and it was pathetic. They rented a room out at a local bar and couldn't even get the place to lower the music volume while they gave their speeches.

69 and Delaware.

70

ace

delaware

indiana

nevada

71 >>>Ace, are you going to support John McCain, too, if he wins his primary? Well, of course you are. Yes, of course I am, because I happen to believe that democracy is sort of important in a democratic republic. I don't know how you guys will in one comment pour hate on Ben Nelson for defying the will of his constituents and then in the next comment scorn Illinois' choice as if they don't get to vote their beliefs and priorities.

72

mallumutt,

we all do it.

73 I'm also just tired of talking about Imaginary Candidates. We are getting away from genuine real-world politics and straying into something that is very nearly "Dungeons and Dragons Fantasy Role-Playing Politics," here, where everyone is free to roll 3d6 six times to create their own fantasy candidate.

74  i still cannot pronounce aluminum

75 Is Mark Kirk better than anything the Dems are going to put up?  Hell yes.

Is he perfect?  Hell no.  If we elect him we'll  be worrying about him pulling a RINO at the worst moments for the next six years.

But perfect is the enemy of good enough.  Support Mark Kirk now and we get a bite at him again in the next primary.

76
...because when the economy starts to get better and it will in spite of Obama and the Democrats...

What makes you so sure? Obama's policies are designed to harm the private sector, regulate businesses into bankruptcy, and stunt GDP expansion.

77 This is like arguing that the Vikings "should have" won the NFC Championship and so we "should" Support them in the superbowl. Well... they didn't win. End of discussion, really.

78 I'll support a RINO over a Democrat (unless that Democrat is Zell Miller) anytime. Life is a compromise.

79

51 Jim in San Diego,

THANK YOU. I considered it a great triumph when you said "Ace is starting to convince me that winning is the name of the game," or something like that.

Yes Ace, you did change my mind on that. The best candidates in the world with the greatest ideas don't mean much if you can't get them elected. Go conservative where you can, take what you can get where you can't.

80 "There are no time machines or wishing wells here.

Posted by: Ace at 02:32 PM"

Or Skittles-shitting unicorns, apparently.

Where'd they all go?  I coulda sworn they were charging right toward us just last November....

81 well I consider that a personal triumph and yours is one of the ten minds I've ever changed on a point.

82 #84 Is he [Kirk] perfect?  Hell no.  If we elect him we'll  be worrying about him pulling a RINO at the worst moments for the next six years.

That's still a lot better than an absolute guarantee that whomever holds the seat will reflexively vote for EVERY liberal spending project. . .as has been the case with at least the last two.

83

I'm in CT, and my intial reaction is that "Camera Happy" Blumenthal will win.  But hey, I stated here 2 months ago that there was no way Scott Brown could win. So what do I know.  However, Simmons is the only Repubican that has a shot of winning, but unfortuately he'll have to spend valuable dollars winning a primiary against WWF McMahon. 

IMHO, JoeRiverside

84 >>91 well I consider that a personal triumph and yours is one of the ten minds I've ever changed on a point.

I was sold on the pudding dip, but I did it , so there's that.

85

There is an interesting story that floated around a couple years back about Obama's out-of-the-blue endorsement of Giannoulis for state treasurer..

...just so happens that just before that, Rezko was indicted on writing bad checks to Vegas casinos on a Broadway Bank account..and Giannoulis had appoved loans to Chicago mobster "Jaws" Giorango, who is suspected to have Vegas ties..

...if I remembre right, Obama had originally applied for and was approved for a loan from Broadway for the house that Rezko helped him buy..but somehow Northern Trust stepped in and gave him a better rate...below market, actually..

..was that a move to distance Obama from the dirt??

86

Is Peter Schiff still running in CT?

Yes.

Posted by: Mallamutt at February 04, 2010 03:13 PM (V9SYy)

I actually saw a bumper sticker for him today...in Southern Fairfield county no less.

87

Okay so we go with the RINO...then when things go bad (think Bush) Rethuglikkkans get blamed.

That worked real well for us didn't it.

88

I would consider a 6 seat pickup for the GOP quite an accomplishment. A takeover of the Senate is not gonna happen. I think that the next 3 years are going to be an economic horror show and we don't want the GOP blamed for that.

Gotta get the House. All budget and tax policy must originate in the House. And they have the power to hold hearings and subpoena officials. Lots of digging into the Obama Administration/ACORN connections could keep Obama busy right up to his losing reelection campaign. 

89

A physicist, an engineer and a mathematician survive a shipwreck and wash up on a tiny atoll with no food except the case of canned beans that they'd floated in on.

The Physicist says, "We're not in such bad shape.  I can use my glasses to start a fire, and if we put a can of beans on the coals, the mounting steam pressure inside will burst the seam."

The Engineer says, "Yes, but we'll probably have a very poor yield when the beans splatter out of the can.  I propose building a chimney out of the coral stone and angling it so that the beans come out at a predictable trajectory.  We can use palm fronds to make a landing target."

The Mathematician says, "Wait, wait - half the beans are going to burn, the can might explode at the wrong end and dump the beans into the fire, and even if the come out of the 'bean gun' properly, they're bound to get contaminated with sand."

The Physicist and Engineer look at him and say, "Well, then, what do you suggest?"

The Mathematician sneers, "That's easy.  Assume a can opener."

 

The moral: Politics ain't mathematics.

90 California is do-able:  Boxer is a House of Cards:  the 'right' candidate can knock out all the rot and crud holding her up and take the seat.

This is a statewide CA election, which = lotsa money needed, along with a decent organization.  The R candidate just needs to get Boxer to TALK;  like a lot of other Demos recently, she'll defeat herself

91 sock off

92 Mark Kirk is not a National Guardsman. He is in the Naval Reserve as an intelligience officer.

93

thanks for this post.  of course, I already knew this (but I am not smarter than Ace).

but we have a 7 way race for the Republican nomination for a candidate to face Dem Tom Perriello in rural Virginia.  Perriello is sooooo vulnerable with votes FOR cap 'n trade & obamacare & the GIVE act & for one of the Porkuli.  but the Republicans are squabbling because the front runner has Eric Cantor's endorsement & that is bad because he is "establishment".

how the hell do these people think they can unseat an incumbent without somebody on your side?

please send this post to everyone in the country.

94 i still cannot pronounce aluminum

Posted by: willow at February 04, 2010 03:19 PM (5Bf/7)

That's because you can't spell it either.

95 Yeah, I would add to the commenter above that Rossi in Washington would be at least as strong as whoever runs against Boxer or Gillibrand. You could also toss in Schumer's seat and Thompson in Wisconsin. I don't really see a +10 pickup. But there are roughly five seats in the bag if everything goes well. If there is a strong wind on election day, however--because the odds on each seat are not completely independent but tied together--you could see a domino effect with a +9 to +11-seat-type wipeout. If they pass ZeroCare, that's probably what we'll see.

96

Even if Kirk is a RINO, he is FAR, FAR better than the Dem he is running against.  I am going to vote for Kirk. if I was a Dem, I would vote twice.

 

97 because the front runner has Eric Cantor's endorsement & that is bad because he is "establishment"

Posted by: kelley in virginia at February 04, 2010 03:33 PM (TEIZr)

Eric Cantor is "establishment"?

98 Ace-- Isn't South Dakota the one that should be at the top? North Dakota is Dorgan, but I don't think his seat is up this year.

99 "I just shut up, so as not to hurt Hughes' chances."

Wow, this Ace guy is much more powerful than I thought. 

100 Mark Kirk is not a National Guardsman. He is in the Naval Reserve as an intelligience officer.

Well that changes everything then

101

@104

Bullshit! It's aluminium only in limy land, land of the hopeless moonbat who can't spell their own language.

102 Posted by: Tami at February 04, 2010 03:29 PM (VuLos)

He is awesome.  I am so conflicted that he is running I don't want him to change a bit.  He saw all of this coming five years ago and he's been telling anyone who would listen and he wanted to be wrong, really wanted to be wrong.  But, we know he so wasn't.

103

California is do-able:  Boxer is a House of Cards:  the 'right' candidate can knock out all the rot and crud holding her up and take the seat.

Are you sure you live in Santa Rosa? There are nothing but illegal immigrants and brain dead 60's leftovers in Sonoma County, and it gets worse the closer you get to the City. I hope you are right, but Boxer is the perfect representative for California: vain, shallow, stupid, and hypocritical.

And yes, I am a Cali native. I weep for the Golden State that was, but is no more...

104 Dorgan announced he wasn't going to seek re-election in 2010.

105 Kirk supports a ban on on-line poker. This man is evil.

106 62 >>>Yeah, we absolutely can beat Boxer. The candidates aren't perfect, but can beat her. give 100%.

Can, yes, but that is... well, that's like one of the toughest possible wins out there.

Posted by: ace at February 04, 2010 03:06 PM (jlvw3)

She's been selling crazy so long in the Senate that more and more even left leaning Californians would be OK with taking a moderate Republican to stop her from further embarrassing our laughing stock of a State.

107 This has probably been mentioned, but I'll bet many of the primary voters of Illinois were not just thinking who they'd like to win, but were also calculating for electability. You'd have to know that percentage to make any argument that "even conservatives didn't like Hughes". You'd also have to know this: how many of those calculating primary voters wanted Hughes, but voted for Kirk based on electability. Another factor: many of them know their state, and have a good sense as to who is electable and who is not. But many others were simply going along with the Kirk electability momentum. What was that split?

108 And yes, I am a Cali native. I weep for the Golden State that was, but is no more...

I am too. I live in the "Bay Area" (Gasp quick check his conservative credentials!) and I'm telling you, her popularity even in lefty land is not what it used to be, and some squish might be able to unseat her. Feinstein is rock solid, but all of that crazy, like I said, is embarrassing, and hurting her. Remember this is still the same state that passed Prop 8.

109

FYI, pretty sure the Seals dude has a legacy (he's the son of a former Chicago Bear?) Kirk beat him twice in a row, even during the Obama tsunami in IL! Been voting in IL for over 30 years.  Almost every Dem I know will not vote for their own candidates. Kirk might have had a hard time against Hoffman, but Alexi Godareuserious will get blown out.

 

110

Boxer is vulnerable. I consider her seat to be "in play".

The real villain here is the Republican party. They have NEVER run and financed a worthwhile candidate to oppose her. She has spent her entire senate careerer winning by default. She ain't no Kennedy. The same thing with Feinstein (the dumber of the two if you can believe that).

111 We need to gain 6 seats to get the majority back.  A couple more RINOs won't make much of a difference, but I do fear the compromises that might come down the pike if certain committees are stacked with RINOs.

112 I wonder if Romney would help out from the back room like he did with Brown.  I agree that the Cal GOP is a hopeless disaster and has been for years.  But with somebody smart and well-funded running the show, Boxer can definitely be knocked off her broomstick.

113 Hey, I'm available.

114

I hope you are right. She has definitely been fortunate to have pushovers as opponents in the past. The woman is incapable of original thought, and the more she talks, the more she irritates. The word "battleaxe" comes to mind.

I would imagine Tom Campbell would be the best opponent to take her out, but he will need a dispirited liberal base to sit out the off year election.

I would love to see that idiot bitch kicked out, but I won't get my hopes up...

115 RINOS behave best when treated the worst. Make it "costly" for the RINOS to act like RINOS. Who says we can't keep them off committees in the first place?

116 Who is this Kirk? Is he a Captain? I hope he doesn't have sealed California divorce records that involve public sex acts.

117 "121

Boxer is vulnerable. I consider her seat to be "in play".

The real villain here is the Republican party. They have NEVER run and financed a worthwhile candidate to oppose her. She has spent her entire senate careerer winning by default. She ain't no Kennedy. The same thing with Feinstein (the dumber of the two if you can believe that).

Posted by: Jim in San Diego at February 04, 2010 03:46 PM (F09Uo)"

this is exactly how schumer should be viewed also.  His seat and Guillibrands' seat is up for grabs and they should fight for both of them.  Not concentrate on just one, get chuckie off his guard, go for the gold, both.

118 "
Can, yes, but that is... well, that's like one of the toughest possible wins out there.

Posted by: ace at February 04, 2010 03:06 PM (jlvw3)"

I'm not going to pretend it's easy.  It's never been easy and it never will be easy.  We're asking people to wake up from a very convenient lie. 

But it's as likely as the Mass Senate race, if not more likely.  Just giving 100% will mean a lot.  Every single Senate seat changes the game quite a bit when some shamnesty or spending bill comes up.

Let's not leave anything on the table.  It's not wrong to note we probably won't run the table.  But we can and we should try.

119 9 right, well, even if we don't take the Senate now, we need to get CLOSE to taking it, so that in 2012 -- when the economy will be in weak expansion, and Obama will be on the ticket with all his cultists now energized to vote -- is even possible.

It is not NORMAL for so many Senate Seats to be at risk to the other party. The best we can hope for in 2012 is to have like a +3 or +4 sort of year, so we had better not be 5 or more down after 2010.

Posted by: ace at February 04, 2010 02:40 PM (jlvw3)

More on this: in 2012, there will be a lot of "blue dogs" up for re-election from 2006.  The reason people thought that 2010 would be tough for R Senators is that we had more incumbents.

Will the mood be the same?  Probably not, but what will happen is that the blue dogs will be toast.  Their voters won't forget and the Democrat two-step of going left and then feigning right won't work anymore.

120 The same thing with Feinstein (the dumber of the two if you can believe that).

If you think Feinstein is dumb, you're an idiot. She is an expert politician who is populist and an expert on securing her seat. She appears reasonable and moderate when necessary and drums that lefty bass drum when she needs to. The only topic that might be an Achilles heel for her is gun rights. She predictably goes into the hardest lefty spin any time you suggest people might have a right to own a firearm. Otherwise really watch her. She's not the loudest politician out their but clearly one of the most influential.

121

Seven of Nine? Never heard of her.

But what do you think of the blond gal in this picture with the metal doo-hickey on her face wearing the skin tight spandex outfit? She's no Andrea Mitchell if you know what I mean. 

122 Yep. We need the win so Kirk's the man. Simple as that. Let's not "John McCain" ourselves here and do less than we possibly could to win the election and retake the Senate. Obama has to be stopped or our country suffers for generations. Two years of gridlock would be just fine.

123 Posted by: AmishDude at February 04, 2010 03:53 PM (lE2KP)
It sort of has been so nice of the prez to push them all off their convenient purches and make them vote his way since he remembers figuring that the moron people would not remember even to vote.  More and more people are wanting to talk politicians on the grocery store line.  This is a very telling sign.  That waking up that Beck always talks about....it's happening and no one mentioned to incredible anger that accompanies it.  It is that anger that the republicans/conservatives need to capitalize on.

124 half a re-post from a nearly-dead thread is better than No Post At All:

I've had this conversation-argument so many times for so long; the 'Purist' ( we wanna lose for the Right Reasons ) mantra-meme was Old the first time I heard it:  Old and tired and self-defeating--and a gift to every Douchebag Democrat and louse-ridden liberal, everywhere. 

The possible vs the perfect, yada yada yada.  If you pick 'perfect', get help.

The next nine months are a once-in-a-generation opportunity to reverse a sad series of mistakes over the past five years of more by a Republican admin and Congress which reverted to pre-Regan practices and a callous indifference to the voters who put them in power.  They lost their power because they never found their principles--and spent our money like Drunken Democrats.

125 If the Tea Party movement has shown anything, it shows that a fiscally conservative message sells across the board. That message can pull a squish right-ward. WE are the ones who make our representatives vote the way we want them to vote.

Mark Kirk will understand, if he wins in the general election, that votes like cap and trade and stimulus 1 and 2 will not be tolerated going forward.

 Illinois friends, when you encounter Kirk during the campaign, make sure he knows you support him only for as long as he is fiscally conservative. He and every representative should know that a second term is earned, not granted. This is the Tea Party movement. No political party should try to co-opt it and the movement should not form a third party. WE the tea party participants hold both parties accountable.

126

Feinstein plays well in the Bay area and that's IT. And yes, she is one stupid and vain bitch judging solely by the things she has uttered in public going all the way back to jeopardizing the hunt for the "Night Stalker" killer back in the 1980's.

127 AmishDude at February 04, 2010 03:53 PM (lE2KP)

What you said; what Ace said; what Malamutt said;

( not an exit ) question:  How many times does The Obvious need to be stated before it sinks in?  Look what the Whole Brown Thing in Mass did to Dems and their cohort whores in the media........

They're still spinning and reeling and frothing and foaming at the mouth

128 "The guy who was better at ideology faced the guy who was much, much better at actual politics and to no one's surprise (well, not mine at least) the guy with the political skills won."

This is exactly why the best potential Presidents usually lose to the best actual politicians.  It explains why Duncan Hunter bowed out early even though Rudy hung on until Florida.

I'm glad your Conservos have some diehards in the hills.  Kinda like keeping your own strain of old-school alive.  But the seed corn isn't the kind you put on display at the country fair.

I'm into mixing metaphors today.  That's how I roll.

129 This has probably been mentioned, but I'll bet many of the primary voters of Illinois were not just thinking who they'd like to win, but were also calculating for electability. You'd have to know that percentage to make any argument that "even conservatives didn't like Hughes". I voted for Hughes, knowing full well if he was nominated he would likely lose. Illinois is not a seat that is a requirement for a Senate majority. Yes, it's a requirement for a majority in 2011, but not for one in 2013. Sometimes you need to make an example of someone...sometimes you don't. It's like Peter Paul chocolate company politics.

130 Quit f'n fabricating Kirk's Astan record for him. By saying that he served in Astan, you are repeating a campaign lie by Kirk. Mark Kirk flies over for a week or two, puts on his uniform, then flies back. That is not a tour. No, and I mean NO ONE, but a Congressman could serve a week then come back home, that is unless they got blown the hell up. He is abusing his power as a Congressman to get special treatment so he can get a talking point in. I really hope that you (Ace) quit spreading mistruths to your readers. Otherwise, I will lose a lot of respect for you.

131 124 Hey, I'm available.

Posted by: Alan Keyes at February 04, 2010 03:49 PM (qwK3S)

<shudder>

132 I hope you are right, but Boxer is the perfect representative for California: vain, shallow, stupid, and hypocritical.

And yes, I am a Cali native. I weep for the Golden State that was, but is no more...

Yes, I've lived in Sonoma County off and on for over forty years, and am in the process of moving back Until Death Does Us Part.

  I have noticed the increase in the Apparently Brain-Dead, especially in the mall.  Walking past all those closed-up shops would get anyone down and this rainy Winter seems to have soaked into an already burnt-out communal psyche

You see the obvious; I see that which is not-so-obvious but it's there:  Scads of normal people. 

133 Like I said in the previous thread, I voted for Hughes on Tuesday. I did it out of protest. Same reason I voted for Alan Keyes in the NC primary when I lived there in 08 (McCain had long been the presumptive nominee).

I'm over it, and I will vote Kirk in the fall without hesitation. The bigger picture is more important than quibbles he and I have on some issues. Like has been said over and over, you need the middle to get to 51, and you ain't gonna do any better in IL.

Hell, we almost picked a candidate for Governor that cut an ad for Obama in the last election.

134

Wouldn't the best scenario for the GOP be to nearly take back the Senate and House?  The DEMS would be crippled, but the GOP could still run against congress and the White House come 2012.  If the GOP were to take back Congress, Obama could blame all of his failures on the Republican congress.

I honestly hope the GOP picks up eight in the Senate and 38 in the House. 

Let the Dems own everything come 2012 and annihilate them.  Then, the GOP might have a legitimate chance to make radical changes (flat tax, expansion of HSA's, elimination of redundant government programs, etc.) in 2013.

135 MikeTheMoose at February 04, 2010 03:44 PM (0q2P7)

There are many closet conservatives among the Zombies and Pod People--like those movies where the Uninfected walk real slow and show no emotion....

Log Cabin, who do you think digs and maintains all those wells in Sonoma?  Installs the satellite dishes and cable?  Many, many, NPs ( normal people ) walk amongst us...

( except in Sebastopol, where everyone's FUBAR )

136 polynikes at February 04, 2010 04:17 PM (m2CN7)

so, enlighten me.....

137 Spell check, man.  It's your friend.

138 Is there any way to get one of the NY seats?  I still don't get how you run for one seat, but not the other, campaign-wise.  Do you make joint appearances with the other GOP candidate?  Pool resources?  A unified message?  So solo?  WHAT?

139 Gillibrand is there only if Pataki gets in the race.

Not saying it's not necessarily true, but why?  My answer, if it's true, is that NY has the most stupid, comatose, media-dead voters in the nation, and that as a new candidate, simply getting exposure, and awareness is incredibly difficult; it's like NewYorkers think, as residents, and host to the biggest, "most important" city, local/statewide politics is beneath them.  Thoughts?

140

Bullshit! It's aluminium only in limy land, land of the hopeless moonbat who can't spell their own language.

Posted by: maddogg at February 04, 2010 03:37 PM (OlN4e)

As the American in London said, "I can't understand you people!  Speak English!"

Or, "We Americans speak English, not... England-talk!"

Or, as Churchill said, "Two peoples divided by a common language."

141 Paris, Mallamutt explained it over on the Defense of Mark Kirk thread (comment #123 if this won't post):

There are Classes for Senator. Schummer is Class I, Gillibrand Class II,. You file a Petition for Class I or Class II. The Class is deterimed by when your term expires. So, in the Senate you have 3 classes. Gillibrand is running to fill in the unexpired term of Hillary's seat, so that means whoever wins the Gillibrand seat hyas to turn around and run, again, in 2 years.

Posted by: Mallamutt at February 04, 2010 02:27 PM (V9SYy)

142 Peaches, I know he explained the technicalities of it, but it's the practical aspects that seem crazy and nearly unprecedented.  Has this ever happened before?

143 153  My point being that this is not a once in a generation issue.  Its just one of the many important points in time in politics in a generation.  Politics has always been about timing / ebb and flow.

Okay, so maybe--just maybe, to heighten the Drama--I overstated the case. Elections can be significant 'markers' :  2010 will be somewhere between 1994 and 1896.

Reagan had to work with a Dem majority in the House the whole 8 years and the Repubs who came in to give him a R majority in the Senate in 1980 ran heavily on social issues.  To get the tax cut and increased defense spending, Reagan gave in on increased domestic spending.

I do know that the Treasury collected more revenue each year during Reagan--and that he allowed Congress to spend all of it and more.  So, there was no 'golden era' of Fiscal Purity to hark back to. 

144

Just for the sake of accuracy, Kirk did not get 65% of the primary vote. It was 57%. Not that I expect that to change anyone's calculations.

http://tinyurl.com/ykqsrbw

145 I think we should also try to get Indiana as Indianna is in the bag.

146

Ideology is not the only thing on the ballot for most voters.

As long as we're playing with hypotheticals, what if it were the only thing? In other words, what if everyone could always count on the Democrat to behave as a liberal-progressive and on the Republican to be a good conservative, all the time, so that general elections came down to ideologies and nothing else?

Who would be in power right now?

147 Spellcheck on Delaware.

148 Don't forget the Dems ran the table in the Senate in 2006. One race after another wound up with the Dem winning an upset by 1-3%.

149 You really need to take California off that list. I'd guess there's a 10%-20% chance to unseat Boxer with the republican candidates we have to choose from. I've had to deal with her since she was a County Supervisor...she just won't go away.

150 Might I suggest if you're going to handicap political races with any degree of credibility, you at least get the spelling of the states correct?  Neveda?  Deleware?  Indianna?   Come on.

151 Did Kirk run tv ads? If yes, did he sound like a conservative or a moderate in his commercials?

He did have some, but not many.  I remember seeing an ad on WGN-TV at any rate.  But most of the advertising I heard from him was on the radio; his radio ads were everywhere on the regular talk and news stations.  The ads - both radio and TV - I would consider conservative, but mostly because they emphasized values that most people would consider conservative (ie, military experience, fiscal responsibility, tax cutting, etc.).

And I have to concur about Kirk in Illinois.  He's about as conservative as we're gonna get, and the Republicans have a golden opportunity to pick up this seat.  Gianoullias is a weak candidate, representing a party in Illinois that keeps inflicting wounds on itself.  It would be absolutely stupid for us to let this one go merely because Kirk was deemed "not conservative enough".  We've had a long, dark age in Illinois where the Republicans have basically been in exile; 2010 represents the best chance we've had in a decade to turn things around, and we'd be fools not to take advantage of it.

152 You analysis is dead-on.  Every state isn't a conservative haven.

You make sure you have conservatives in the states that are conservatives.  You make sure that in the squishy states you have someone who's at least fiscally-conservative and common sense about the rest.

That way,  you don't have any more of those asinine Progressive ButtBills (Porkulus, Son of Porkulus, ObamaCare) working their way into law.

153 I just want the most conservative viable candidate for the district/state they are running in. 

Yes, someone more conservative than Kirk probably couldn't have won in IL, and I can accept that. On the other hand, someone more conservative than Dede Scuzzywuzzy, like say, Doug Collins, could have won in NY23 if the GOP had backed him, and instead the sold us out for a liberal in GOP clothing.  That's the kind of shit a lot of us are sick of.

The other thing is that it's not worth having some guys in your camp, like Lincoln Chaffee, since they always vote for the other team anyway.  They provide almost no value to the GOP or conservatism, but provide plenty of value to the Democrats and leftie's by giving a cover of "bipartisanship" to their bullshit.  You might as well not even have those seats.

154 You'd better count Florida in the mix. I think if Crist loses the primary, and it looks like he will, he will run as an independent.

No matter how many times he compares himself to Ronald Reagan, he is a progressive. He has advocated for California style air quality and emissions standards, opposes off-shore drilling and wants illegals counted in the census.

If he wins the primary, he will win the election, but he will be right there with Olympia Snow... always looking for a deal.

I don't think he could win as an independent, but he could pull enough republican votes to enable the democrat to sneak in.

155 Republicans do not need to win the Senate this cycle. I have a sneaking suspicion there will be alot of anti-Obama energy out there and swing state Dems that will need their clock cleaned.   Ben Nelson FL Claire McCaskill MO (She is toast!) Jim Webb  VA Sherrod Brown OH (I'm thinking the Bickeye state sends him home) Jon Tester MT Kent Conrad ND   While the GOP only has to defend this list:   Jon Kyl AZ Richard Lugar IN Olympis Snowe ME Roger Wicker MI John Ensign NV Bob Corker TN Orrin Hatch UT John Barrasso WY   2012 is going to be fun especially if the GOP does not take back either chamber. Yeah it is cynical but that is what happened to Carter. He lost seats but didn't lose the majority and went down in flames in 1980...

156 Ace, I love you, but you absolutely need a spell check on this one.

157 draftkudlow.com

158 There are only two problems with getting a real Republican or anything else remotely conservative elected in California.

1)  The state's electoral districts have been seriously Gerrymandered by the Democrats.

2)  Too many typical Californians have drunk the Koolaid.  I recently tried to debate a liberal from Berkeley and was informed that my religion (Jewish) disqualified me from having a valid opinion on the Mid East conflict.  Don't forget, racial and religious bigotry are acceptable if you're a liberal.

I'd like to be wrong, but I don't think I am.  I'm a native Californian, born and raised in Los Angeles, rapidly approaching 60 years of age.

 

159

Kirk won with 57% of the vote, not 65%. 

I agree about the need to have candidates with good political skills, but I still would hold my nose at Kirk.  It's not just his stance on the issues.  His background as a Congerssional aide who ran for his bosses seat makes him part of the problem in Washington, not part of the solution.  

 

 

160

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