November 12, 2010
— Monty As Insty might say, read the whole thing.
Upshot: SS and Medicaid are broken in principle. They cannot be "fixed" without fundamentally altering their basic design. It is morally wrong to continue as we are; it is wrong to burden ourselves and our children by outlandish and unsustainable promises made by men long dead.
It's like that Sam Cooke song I linked in my Briefing thread this morning: A change is gonna come.
Posted by: Monty at
08:00 AM
| Comments (131)
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Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 08:08 AM (AZGON)
It's like that Sam Cooke song I linked in my Briefing thread this morning: A change is gonna come.
I'm more partial to the soundtrack of our financial system being "A Hard Rain's A-Gonna Fall" and, appropriately, brought on by the songwriter and his ilk.
Posted by: Tough Times at November 12, 2010 08:08 AM (n98P0)
Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 08:09 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at November 12, 2010 08:14 AM (i+9lz)
Posted by: Andy at November 12, 2010 08:15 AM (5Rurq)
Yay, more mental masturbation!
Posted by: Soothsayer at November 12, 2010 12:12 PM (uFokq)
For shame!
Posted by: Christine O'Donnell at November 12, 2010 08:15 AM (n98P0)
As they say in da hood: "He gots to go!"
Posted by: Wyatt Earp at November 12, 2010 08:15 AM (i+9lz)
Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 08:15 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Kanye West at November 12, 2010 08:16 AM (i+9lz)
Posted by: JackStraw at November 12, 2010 08:18 AM (TMB3S)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 08:19 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Queef Olbermann at November 12, 2010 08:20 AM (i+9lz)
It's not "flogging the dead horse," it's preaching the Gospel. No matter how many times we've heard it, we need to hear it again and start proselytizing on our own.
Nothing's gonna happen bitching about it in here, but take that energy out and tell a few people, in casual conversation, "Whew, man, I just saw that Social Security is really underwater."
Spread the Good (bad) News, morons.
Posted by: s'moron at November 12, 2010 08:20 AM (UaxA0)
Posted by: shillelagh at November 12, 2010 08:21 AM (Oz4Bj)
A more appropiate song is Mother's Little Helper
And though she's not really ill
There's a little yellow pill
She goes running for the shelter of a mother's little helper
And it helps her on her way, gets her through her busy day
Posted by: Soothsayer at November 12, 2010 08:21 AM (uFokq)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff at November 12, 2010 08:24 AM (5pIHA)
Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 08:26 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Nighthawk at November 12, 2010 08:27 AM (02uN6)
Someone is going to have to start the political ball rolling (at the cost of their career) by suggesting things like (1) eliminating the SS tax, and funding the old age pension from the general fund, which is where it comes from anyway.
Why eliminate it? Because you're going to wind up paying an old age pension to everyone 60 and above on the basis of the promises already made. If you don't, you'll never see anyone believe a word government says again. You'll also see massive tax fraud, and more than a few people deciding they won't obey any laws again, unless a cop is watching. Disdain for government is one thing; mass lawlessness is another, and a very, very bad thing, too.
(2) For those in their 50s, pay out at 80% of the current rates, and starting at 70.*
(3) For those in their 40s, pay 50% starting at 72.*
(4) Under 40? no pension for you. Not at any age.
(5) No SSI.
The reason to eliminate the SS tax is simply to ensure that people over 40 can still get (and keep) a job. If we tax only those with a pension coming, we create a class of workers who will cost 12.5% more than others with whom they are competing for jobs. Employers are going to ask themselves if it isn't more cost effective to discriminate based on age and only hire the young. Yes, I know its prohibited, but so what - employers will do it anyway.
Taking SS out of the general fund will eliminate a major disincentive to hire worker aged 40 and over, and you'll want those folks working and paying taxes and saving and buying things in order to get this economy on its feet again.
*these numbers are my wild-ass guesses. Real numbers crunchers can easily arrive at realistic numbers.
Posted by: Josef K. at November 12, 2010 08:28 AM (7+pP9)
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 08:31 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: Nighthawk at November 12, 2010 08:35 AM (02uN6)
Posted by: John Edwards at November 12, 2010 08:36 AM (VoRkG)
Haven't they already made the case for Amnesty as a way to save Social Security?
Posted by: Soothsayer at November 12, 2010 12:32 PM (uFokq)
Yes. It won't work, though, because many foreigners are only interested in living here ling enough to send enough money back home to set themselves up for a comfortable life wherever they came from. Work in the US for 20 years and you'll have enough money to buy a farm where your extended family will live. Those people aren't interested in paying taxes, and they send most of what they make home - out of the US economy - so you can bet they will dodge citizenship and paying for SS.
Amnesty is a Hail Mary pass for the Dems, and a scheme to depress wages for unscrupulous employers. It won't help the US in the long run, though.
Posted by: Josef K. at November 12, 2010 08:38 AM (7+pP9)
Isn't it true that one of the more stupid things about Bush's Amnesty was the lowered requirement of 16? quarters of work by former illegals to qualify for Soc Sec?
The rest of us are required to contribute 40 quarters, I believe.
So that's sure to negatively impact the system, too.
Posted by: Soothsayer at November 12, 2010 08:38 AM (uFokq)
me banging my mistress in the same room as my wife while she gets read her last rights
So, Silky Pony, you're saying that we have a 50-50 chance to save social security?
Posted by: s'moron at November 12, 2010 08:40 AM (UaxA0)
I can help make that happen.
Posted by: Bill Clinton at November 12, 2010 08:41 AM (i+9lz)
Posted by: Jean at November 12, 2010 08:43 AM (G5WHn)
It's not "flogging the dead horse," it's preaching the Gospel. No matter how many times we've heard it, we need to hear it again and start proselytizing on our own.
Nothing's gonna happen bitching about it in here, but take that energy out and tell a few people, in casual conversation, "Whew, man, I just saw that Social Security is really underwater."
Spread the Good (bad) News, morons.
Posted by: s'moron at November 12, 2010 12:20 PM (UaxA0)
Yep, that right there. More of the uninformed, marginally interested masses need to understand the facts.
Plenty of succinct nuggets to be found in the referenced paper, to wit:
Social Security is a transfer system Ponzi scheme that is used to fund retirement. In that regard, it differs from a
saving system used to fund retirement. Saving generates capital assets that can be used to support
future consumption. On the other hand, a transfer system creates obligations for one group of citizens
(in this case, young workers) to transfer income to another group (seniors).
Posted by: NM Hick at November 12, 2010 08:45 AM (IzuWw)
Beware the ides of incremental little piss ass changes that even the repubs will try to con us into believing will "fix" SS and MC for decades to come.
You know they are gonna try it. Can't let them.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at November 12, 2010 08:46 AM (r1h5M)
Posted by: John Edwards at November 12, 2010 08:49 AM (VoRkG)
Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 08:49 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Jean at November 12, 2010 12:43 PM (G5WHn)
That, too. It is really a matter of what percentage of illegals will follow each path:
- Citizenship, but only pro forma, as you suggest.
- Staying "in the shadows" while working and sending money home (possibly because of a criminal record that would make getting citizenship problematic, although I am sure there might be other reasons).
- Staying "in the shadows" because, instead of working as maids or landscape laborers, they are smuggling, dealing drugs, or engaged in other criminal enterprises.
Whatever path they take, it won't involve being a good citizen of los Estados Unidos.
Posted by: Josef K. at November 12, 2010 08:49 AM (7+pP9)
Posted by: Buffalobob at November 12, 2010 08:54 AM (GwH6h)
Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 08:55 AM (AZGON)
Beware the ides of incremental little piss ass changes that even the repubs will try to con us into believing will "fix" SS and MC for decades to come.
You know they are gonna try it. Can't let them.
And you realistically think abolition can happen?
Jacking up the retirement age? Totally a must.
Means testing some benefits? Ditto.
But abolition? Yes, we can dream, but I like goals that can actually happen.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 08:56 AM (ujg0T)
1) Put everybody under 45 under notice that they no longer have to pay into social security, but that they'd better start socking the money they would have paid in into their own retirement account because they're never going to get any benefits. The money they've already paid in could be used to shore the program up for people who are already on SS or close to retirement age. Allow workers to put their 7% into their IRA or 401K and give employers the option of using their 7% to match the employees' 7% contribution. Allow the employers to write it off.
2) Accelerate the raising of the retirement age so that it's 74 by 2030.
Posted by: ol_dirty_/b/tard at November 12, 2010 08:56 AM (1Mbxk)
Frankly, I am mystified that both sets of retired parents, average age 85, have between $200K and $400K in savings, provided in part by their having both Medicaid and Social Security.
Well... on the upside, I and my wife will garner $100K and $200K in tax-free income when the parents pass on.
Posted by: Quaoar at November 12, 2010 08:56 AM (9Ugjz)
Posted by: Buffalobob at November 12, 2010 12:54 PM (GwH6h)
Every time I see a comment like this, I wish I could have access to a bunch of data including (but not limited to):
total income by county
total taxes paid by county (with the ability to break out all different types of taxes)
total government expenditures by county (broken out by type)
SS taxes paid by county, by age band
SS paid out by county, by age band
with totals by state and nationally, too, of course. In other words, the kind of database the government uses to analyze income and expenses, and to forecast future income and expenses. If people had access to that kind of data, we'd be able to really change the political discussion.
Posted by: Josef K. at November 12, 2010 09:01 AM (7+pP9)
Accelerate the raising of the retirement age so that it's 74 by 2030.
I'd make it sooner than that. When SS was set up in 1935 with a retirement age of 62, guess what median life expectancy was?
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 09:02 AM (ujg0T)
Once the amount I contributed has been realized, take the rest and burn it for all I care. We realized early on that retirement was on US, and we acted accordingly. Took a lot of years of frugal living to achieve, but here we are now.
The largest hurdle I see is to get people to understand that SS was intended as a SUPPLEMENT, not an entirety. Do that, and it ceases to be a political third rail, not to mention reducing the problem of who to assist to manageable levels.
Posted by: irongrampa at November 12, 2010 09:02 AM (ud5dN)
Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 09:03 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Glenn Beck at November 12, 2010 09:04 AM (H+LJc)
In any real arrangement, however, you're going to have a slice that screams "There outta be a law!" and you just get SS reinstituted down the road.
So the question is: What is the most conservative approach to retirement that will do well enough for the bulk of the populace without (a) generating government bureaucrats, (b) creating a sense of entitlement, or (c) stiffing anyone?
I'm thinking the IRA system is a hefty chunk of this - except for the limits. The money is allowed to in tax free, the government doesn't actually run the program(s), and you have the option of bailing at any point (after taxes) because the money is yours. Your heirs even inherit the remains.
So the goal of any transition is to pump up the IRA plans, make them a little more ubiquitous, while simultaneously deflating SS. The potential endgame would be a government 'strong recommendation/mandate' that one sticks 12% of one's income into one's own IRA. Or opt out via a form "I reject on religious/moral/other grounds, and I understand that coming back to the government for help on this issue is an automatic ruling that I'm non compos mentos. k thx."
So the transition is the tricky part. Charge a fee to allow one to contribute an extra $1000 into one's IRA. And explicitly start ramping down the promised benefits for everyone that does contribute extra. (Arrange it such that it is still a relative bargain. The rate of return anyone 18-50 gets from even CDs is going to crush the ROI of SS.)
I don't think this covers the entire gap, but conservatives need to freaking find an acceptable "endgame" if you want to kill this monstrosity. Being against insanity is fine, but set something up as a credible long-term replacement other than "Nothing."
Posted by: Al at November 12, 2010 09:06 AM (MzQOZ)
Accelerate the raising of the retirement age so that it's 74 by 2030.
I'd make it sooner than that. When SS was set up in 1935 with a retirement age of 62, guess what median life expectancy was?
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 01:02 PM (ujg0T)
65?
And I think we should raise the retirement age by age band immediately. And lower the payouts, too. I posted this above.
(1) No change for those 60 and above.
(2) For those in their 50s, pay out at 80% of the current rates, and starting at 70.*(3) For those in their 40s, pay 50% starting at 72.*
(4) Under 40? no pension for you. Not at any age.
(5) No SSI
* Ages are my wild ass guess, based on insufficient information.
Posted by: Josef K. at November 12, 2010 09:06 AM (7+pP9)
What would prevent employers from finding means to lay-off their senior workforce aged at 60, even if the retirement age were 100?
Posted by: Glenn Beck at November 12, 2010 09:08 AM (H+LJc)
People in government have to realize that they are sacrificing themselves for the good of the country. Maybe BO has to be a one term president and a lot of his buddies in DC in elected office will end up leaving office too....
but what's the alternative....
If you know the car is going off the clif do you take the car out anyway and just drive off the cliff or do you try and fix it before you reach the cliff...
Posted by: curious at November 12, 2010 09:08 AM (p302b)
But we're against those entrusted with this program when they practice deception regarding its fiscal shortcomings, when they charge that any criticism of the program means that we want to end payments to those people who depend on them for a livelihood. They've called it "insurance" to us in a hundred million pieces of literature. But then they appeared before the Supreme Court and they testified it was a welfare program. They only use the term "insurance" to sell it to the people. And they said Social Security dues are a tax for the general use of the government, and the government has used that tax. There is no fund, because Robert Byers, the actuarial head, appeared before a congressional committee and admitted that Social Security as of this moment is 298 billion dollars in the hole. But he said there should be no cause for worry because as long as they have the power to tax, they could always take away from the people whatever they needed to bail them out of trouble. And they're doing just that.
A young man, 21 years of age, working at an average salary -- his Social Security contribution would, in the open market, buy him an insurance policy that would guarantee 220 dollars a month at age 65. The government promises 127. He could live it up until he's 31 and then take out a policy that would pay more than Social Security. Now are we so lacking in business sense that we can't put this program on a sound basis, so that people who do require those payments will find they can get them when they're due -- that the cupboard isn't bare?
Posted by: Britt at November 12, 2010 09:09 AM (cGAax)
Posted by: Nighthawk at November 12, 2010 09:10 AM (02uN6)
Posted by: Jean at November 12, 2010 09:11 AM (Ja6pC)
What would prevent employers from finding means to lay-off their senior workforce aged at 60, even if the retirement age were 100?
Posted by: Glenn Beck at November 12, 2010 01:08 PM (H+LJc)
Nothing. That's why you have such a problem here. There aren't enough fast food and big box store jobs to support all of today's seniors that an immediate cessation of SS would force back into the workplace. And that's not even counting the ones that are too decrepit to work.
Immediate cessation is like limiting the vote to veterans; it gives some people a warm, fuzzy feeling, but it would be a disaster if it was ever to be implemented.
Posted by: Josef K. at November 12, 2010 09:13 AM (7+pP9)
There aren't enough fast food and big box store jobs to support all of today's seniors that an immediate cessation of SS would force back into the workplace.
!Si', Sen~or!
Posted by: Illegal aliens at November 12, 2010 09:14 AM (ujg0T)
We interrupt this thread for A Republican Hand-Wringing & Pant Wetting update:
Chris Christie is fat and mean. Sarah Palin is an embarrasing hillbilly. And maybe we should consider compromise on the Health Care Reform bill because it will help some Republicans get elected in 2012.
Posted by: Soothsayer at November 12, 2010 09:15 AM (uFokq)
For those in their 50s, pay out at 80% of the current rates, and starting at 70.*
If you have the qualifying age set high enough, you may not even need to cut current payout rates. Seriously. If they pass away soon after and aren't on it long enough.....just saying....
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 09:16 AM (ujg0T)
Obamacare is a failure. It still left people uncovered, which was allegedly the point, right?
Posted by: curious at November 12, 2010 09:17 AM (p302b)
Posted by: MMW at November 12, 2010 09:17 AM (4BTKQ)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 09:20 AM (4Pleu)
Guys someone's got to step up and start the ball rolling...
Posted by: curious at November 12, 2010 09:22 AM (p302b)
Posted by: RushBabe at November 12, 2010 09:22 AM (a3Z62)
I propose that Monty (our modern day economic Rebecca of Sunnybrook Farm) should coordinate his posts so we can collectively convene at some bar, have a few fairwell drinks, and commit group sepukku.
Posted by: fapo at November 12, 2010 09:22 AM (Hq48F)
See this is the problem. no one wants to hear any ad news. No one wants to deal with any bad news.
Look when you are running an F and you have two tests left....you gotta ace the test. You gotta do it, no choice or you will fail. People have to deal with this stuff now, not when the tsunami of crash hits....they have to use good old American ingenuity and fix this stuff....
Posted by: curious at November 12, 2010 09:26 AM (p302b)
Russ pisses me off and then Monty calms me down...
you go Monty!
none of the Establishment types want to talk about S.S. even now, even after this election proves that people are as ready as they will ever be to hear some hard truths about S.S. and Medicare/Medicaid.
the leadership of the GOP is just as stupid and awful as the Dems leadership.
Posted by: Shoey at November 12, 2010 09:26 AM (ehKDD)
Posted by: John Edwards at November 12, 2010 09:27 AM (VoRkG)
the leadership of the GOP is just as stupid and awful as the Dems leadership.
Posted by: Shoey at November 12, 2010 01:26 PM (ehKDD)
which is why independents are growing exponentially....no one wants to associate with either party...
Posted by: curious at November 12, 2010 09:27 AM (p302b)
If you have the qualifying age set high enough,
you may not even need to cut current payout rates. Seriously. If they
pass away soon after and aren't on it long enough.....just saying....
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 01:16 PM (ujg0T)
I once read that the NFL pension was originally set for a player with 5 full seasons under his belt could start to collect a pension at age 55. At that time, the average lifespan for a player with 5 full seasons under his belt was ... 55.
I also remember reading that SS was set up to pay out at 62 when the average lifespan was 65. In other words, citizens were only supposed to collect for their last three years on earth.
Both could be anecdotal, but I'd not be surprised to find out both are true.
I just checked Wikipedia, which has a table of world life expectancies, and according to it, the average US male lives 75.6 years, females live 80.8 years, for a combined average of 78.2 years. An SS payout age of 72 would mean men collect for 3.6 years, and women for 8.8 years; much more in line with the original plans.
Really want to solve this problem long term? Eliminate capital gains and inheritance taxes. Eliminate and taxes on IRAs and 401(k)s. Don't count any money paid into these accounts (by you or your employer) towards your salary for that year. People will save enough that we can eliminate SS entirely, or make it an old age pension for the poorest 10%.
Posted by: Josef K. at November 12, 2010 09:29 AM (7+pP9)
And you realistically think abolition can happen? Jacking up the retirement age? Totally a must. Means testing some benefits? Ditto. But abolition? Yes, we can dream, but I like goals that can actually happen.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 12:56 PM (ujg0T)
I didn't say anything about abolition. But small incremental changes won't work any more than a meaningless gesture of raising the retirement age to some absurd level. Who the hell is going to employ those people until they are in their seventies?
I'm saying that SS and MC need to be redesigned and notwithstanding the BS arguments against a market based solution, outside the sticky mitts of politicians. I believe that that is where to look for a solution and I also believe that it is totally workable.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at November 12, 2010 09:29 AM (r1h5M)
Maybe it's time for real journalists to emerge....
Posted by: curious at November 12, 2010 09:30 AM (p302b)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 09:30 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: Otter (D-Faber) at November 12, 2010 09:30 AM (5Rurq)
thank God this is a computer conversation....i honestly think they'd be punching each other by now in person...
Posted by: curious at November 12, 2010 09:33 AM (p302b)
Posted by: The Narcissus of California at November 12, 2010 09:34 AM (AZGON)
If the Social Security program is so damn good, why don't the people who work for the Social Security Administration participate in it? Instead, they have their own taxpayer-funded pension program, and they don't have to pay SSA withholding.
It says something when the chef won't eat in his own restaurant.
Posted by: Brown Line at November 12, 2010 09:40 AM (VrNoa)
But small incremental changes won't work any more than a meaningless gesture of raising the retirement age to some absurd level. Who the hell is going to employ those people until they are in their seventies?
Whatever happened to 40 being the new 30 and 60 the new 50? People *are* genuinely living longer and healthier lives than they used to, all the scares about obesity notwithstanding. I compare my parents to my grandparents at like ages.
A realistic move of the retirement age from 65 to 75 is in order.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 09:40 AM (ujg0T)
Posted by: The Narcissus of California at November 12, 2010 09:44 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 09:44 AM (AZGON)
So the middle class that will take the hit are the ones who were gutsy enough to work for the private sector and didn't want to work for the public and be part of the union.
And those are the people who have lost their jobs and their house. And when they lose their SS they will just be totally demoralized. It needs to be fixed now.
Posted by: curious at November 12, 2010 09:45 AM (p302b)
people need to be disabused of the notion that anyone except themselves is going to take care of them.
the Government won't take care of you, they don't care about you, they care about controlling you.
the financial firm that holds your 401 won't take care of you, they don't care about you, they care about the money in your account because as long as that money stays in that account it's their money.
you, your family and your close friends these are the only people that care enough about you to truly "help" you, everyone else only wants something from you.
it's sad, but it's reality... anything else is a marxist pipe-dream.
Posted by: Shoey at November 12, 2010 09:47 AM (ehKDD)
Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 09:48 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 09:52 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: JackStraw at November 12, 2010 09:53 AM (TMB3S)
obesity notwithstanding. I compare my parents to my grandparents at like ages. ;">A realistic move of the retirement age from 65 to 75 is in order.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at
November 12, 2010 01:40 PM (ujg0T)
The data on life expectancy is heavily misinterpreted and is skewed more on infant mortality than on people in adulthood actually living longer.
Like your parents, there are outliers in any group. My great grandmother lived into her 90Â’s. Maybe she should have been made to work to
80.
Your argument for increasing the retirement age to 75 in unrealistic.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at November 12, 2010 09:53 AM (r1h5M)
Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 09:59 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 09:59 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: George Orwell at November 12, 2010 10:01 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 10:02 AM (4Pleu)
link
via dealbreaker and FT Alphaville
dealbreaker links to FT Alphaville
Posted by: curious at November 12, 2010 10:04 AM (p302b)
How is it that the government gets away with a patently illegal Ponzi scheme? How is it that no one has the b*lls to tell all the old people that they're victims and victimizers of a Ponzi scheme?
Until we have a citizen Congress once again this crap will go on and metastasize until it consumes America. I am now a full-on disciple of term limits. Six years, that's it for the House and the Senate. On top of that they only meet three times a year for three weeks unless there's an official attack on the US or some rather nasty act of God - oil well fires do not count as FEMA exists with the Coast Guard (et al) to handle the Fed's part in these things.
IMHO that's a start.
Posted by: Hoper for Change at November 12, 2010 10:04 AM (adr25)
Hussein the Plumber:
I think the focus on longevity is misplaced: yes, we are living (a bit) longer, but the big news is that we are living more active lives during the years we have. 80 year olds are generally more spry than 70 year olds a generation ago due to better diet, better medical care, and more mental stimulus.
Stats about decreased infant mortality aside (which is why I said *median* and not *mean* age), I ask every formerly young adult now turning middle aged Moron and Moronette here to look back (not through child's eye, but through young adult eye) and observe that our now elderly parents are much more active and spry than our now deceased grandparents at like age. Empirically.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 10:09 AM (ujg0T)
The data on life expectancy is heavily misinterpreted and is skewed more on infant mortality than on people in adulthood actually living longer.
I said *median*, not *mean average*. I know infant death skews mean average.
Like your parents, there are outliers in any group. My great grandmother lived into her 90Â’s. Maybe she should have been made to work to 80.
If she hadn't made her own pension and earnings arrangements in advance, yes. Sad but true, it will come to that for all elderly.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 10:11 AM (ujg0T)
Gee they could have made a huge deal about people losing their jobs and houses. Heck we could have paid off everyone's mortgage and continued their unemployment and still had money left over to help out the old unions and other countries.
Posted by: curious at November 12, 2010 10:21 AM (p302b)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 10:29 AM (4Pleu)
| See this is the problem. No one wants to hear any ad news. No one wants to | deal with any bad news.
That's the problem with communicating by text. One has to pepper a response with lame smiley faces in order to convey sarcasm.
:^}...
Monty's posts are chock full of excellent information. That being said, I generally know what I'm in for before I click on one of his links, and the notion of having a stiff drink with really bad news is not altogether unreasonable.
Posted by: fapo at November 12, 2010 10:36 AM (Hq48F)
A lot of retirees are taking a lot of debt into retirement as well -- credit debt, college-loan debt from the kids, cars, boats, travel, vacation home mortgages, RVs, etc. It used to be expected that elderly people would depend on their children for support in their declining years, but the last generation didn't have enough children (China's even worse). This is called the 4-2-1 problem: 1 kid taking care of 2 parents and 4 grandparents. Or not, as the case may be.
Not only this, but all too many relatively affluent Silent and Boom Generation parents are helping out their relatively impoverished Generation X and Y children, who have less opportunities and earn less real income than they did at like age.
Disclaimer: I am a generation Xer, born 1967, and my Silent Generation Depression era birth parents are having the time of their lives in retirement. Now they earned every cent of it, having prudently invested all their lives, and Social Security to them is just a fraction of their income. But they argue, hey, they had to pay into it all their young lives, why shouldn't they take it as elders? And I don't have a response other than to point out the lengthened life span.
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 10:51 AM (ujg0T)
To pull the rug out from under seniors NOW would create a real mess, cause unnecessary hardship and would rouse a lot of people (seniors and their kin) into outright rebellion.
Sure you can be snarky and say that it's tough when a Ponzi scheme goes bad and the last ones get the shaft but the thing is, we paid into the system and ONLY NOW are receiving any benefit AND what are you geniuses going to do about millions of grannies tossed into the street? Or grandpa wandering around wondering where he is?
You can't ignore the old and unless you want to create euthanization centers and start the trains rolling, something has to be done for those of us who are unable to find work, to work or are incapacitated in some other manner.
If you shut off the spigot, where do the millions who depend on it go?
Posted by: jakee308 at November 12, 2010 10:59 AM (fhTf7)
Posted by: jakee308 at November 12, 2010 11:01 AM (fhTf7)
Posted by: Curmudgeon at November 12, 2010 11:02 AM (ujg0T)
4 years ago I was making the equivalent of 35,000. I had about 15,000 of debt which since I had NO EXPENSES was not a worry. (I had a special deal going so that I didn't have to pay rent, heat, electric, water, etc.)
NOW having had the company I worked for close, I'm trying to live on 20,000 (part time work and SS) and pay off that debt which has grown to 18,000.
I'M A VICTIM OF COICUMSTANCES, NYUK, NYUK, NYUK.
Posted by: jakee308 at November 12, 2010 11:06 AM (fhTf7)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 11:07 AM (4Pleu)
The FACTS are that a lot of people DEPEND upon the SS payments.
THEY ARE NOT IN A POSITION TO PREPARE FOR CUTS!
Many don't even have relatives to help them out. Those that do, wouldn't be able to support them.
If SS dries up FOR WHATEVER REASON there will be big problems that government (I.E. YOU) will have to pay for.
Better to dole it out and at least let folks try to be as independent and frugal as they can. If you close off the spigot, they will then demand to be TAKEN CARE OF because they have limited resources to do so themselves.
Where would the money for that come from? That's right, the guy in the mirror, that's who.
Of course that's given that all you youngsters don't decide to turn us 'Oldsters' out into the streets.
Problem there is that's more dangerous than you might think FOR YOU YOUNGSTERS.
Posted by: jakee308 at November 12, 2010 11:17 AM (fhTf7)
A thorough vetting of all SS supplemental claimants and the resulting reduction of the rolls by the removal of those who are able bodies but are claiming incapacitation. (no I don't know the number but SSI was NOT supposed to be as large as it is.)
AND
An immediate means test for CURRENT recipients that would eliminate those who have 6 figure RETIREMENT INCOMES along with large amounts of personal property.
Would probably put SS back into the black till 2040. (Especially if those lying c**ksuckers in congress quit raiding the SS fund.)
Posted by: jakee308 at November 12, 2010 11:23 AM (fhTf7)
The author of that article says SS utilizes a "transfer system" as opposed to a "saving system".
To me, that sounds wrong. Aren't we using a transfer system only in practice? Isn't SS set up partly as a savings system? Or, at least a hybrid?
The surpluses that we saved have been pilfered by each Congress over the decades and all that is left is I.O.U.'s.
That seems not to be the fault of the way the system is set up, but the fault of Congress grabbing the cash for spending on crap.
If that's the way it is, seems to me the first thing to do is stop raiding the surplus banked funds and start putting them away.. which means once again we have a spending problem.
Posted by: ChiTown-Jerry at November 12, 2010 11:23 AM (f9c2L)
Posted by: MMW at November 12, 2010 11:24 AM (4BTKQ)
Posted by: Russ' Mom's Poon at November 12, 2010 11:33 AM (G5qLy)
Making retirees the enemy helps no one. Do you think they don't have the power to vote? I really dare you to piss off 65+ yr old people in this country.. I dare ya.. you will have a shitstorm you cannot even imagine, especially when most 55+ voters and all the lefties would side with them.
It's real easy for you to say "go fuck yourself you old people".. but remember what goes around comes around.. Your personal retirement and current and future wages could be taxed into the fucking ground as payback just as easily.
Think about all that for a bit before you say "screw that".. We're definitely boned in a lot of ways.. but we need to come up with a solution that is fair to all.. make enemies at your own peril.
Posted by: ChiTown-Jerry at November 12, 2010 11:34 AM (f9c2L)
I'd make it sooner than that. When SS was set up in 1935 with a retirement age of 62, guess what median life expectancy was?
They were both 65. The model, the turn-of-the-century Imperial Germany government pension system, was set at 65 with a median life expectancy of 62 in order to pay for the military build-up that financed WWI.
Posted by: steveegg at November 12, 2010 11:36 AM (51MkX)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 11:41 AM (4Pleu)
Posted by: MMW at November 12, 2010 11:52 AM (4BTKQ)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 11:56 AM (4Pleu)
Monty - can you explain something?
The author of that article says SS utilizes a "transfer system" as opposed to a "saving system".
To me, that sounds wrong. Aren't we using a transfer system only in practice? Isn't SS set up partly as a savings system? Or, at least a hybrid?
The surpluses that we saved have been pilfered by each Congress over the decades and all that is left is I.O.U.'s.
That seems not to be the fault of the way the system is set up, but the fault of Congress grabbing the cash for spending on crap.
If that's the way it is, seems to me the first thing to do is stop raiding the surplus banked funds and start putting them away.. which means once again we have a spending problem.
I'm not Monty, but I'll help explain:
- There are a few Supreme Court cases, particularly Flemming v Nestor, that have established that no individual holds any contractual claim to Social Security benefits. Do note that the link is to the Social Security government website.
- By law, any money that is not needed to pay that day's expenses, except on the last business day of June, must be given to the U.S. Treasury to be put in the General Fund in exchange for short-term Treasury securities with a maturation date of the following June 30. On the last business day of June, the money left over from both the collection of taxes and the maturation of Treasury securities is given over to the Treasury to be put in the General Fund in exchange for long-term Treasury securities, with maturation dates of between 1 and 15 years from that June 30. Regardless of whether it's a short-term or long-term Treasury security, Congress and thus Treasury treats it as cash to be spent immediately.
- While there is a line in the budget to record the paying out of "interest", there is a corresponding and equally-opposite line counting the "interest" as income. Moreover, even for the Disability Insurance "Trust" Fund, which is so rapidly cashing in its Treasury securities, both the taxes taken in and the "interest" paid out on the cashed-in securities cannot cover the costs, there is no line in the budget noting this. In short, there is exactly $0.00 in the budget to monetize the "Trust" Funds.
That said, under the current scheme, by the time SocSecurity's combined "Trust" Fund is fully-exhausted, over half of what is needed to monetize the "Trust" Fund (or about $4.6 trillion of $7.5 trillion from July 2011 on) is "interest" not yet "credited" to the "Trust" Fund. To put it another way, take away the "interest" payments starting in July 2011, somehow find the $2.8 trillion it would take to fully-monetize the "Trust" Fund (remember, there is exactly $0.00 available for that right now), and the combined SocSecurity operation would burn through that $2.8 trillion by 2029.
Posted by: steveegg at November 12, 2010 12:20 PM (51MkX)
Ti-i-i-ime is on my side.
Yes, it is!
*fat guy doing a Jaggeresque dance move*
I say, ti-i-i-ime is on my side.
Ahyes, it is.
Posted by: Horrifying Reality Channeling John Goodman in "Fallen" at November 12, 2010 12:33 PM (xy9wk)
Seriously, anybody who didn't know by now that SS was beyond broken, it never worked, is a hopeless idiot.
Posted by: JackStraw at November 12, 2010 01:53 PM (TMB3S)
You did see what the Debt Commission wants to do to SocSecurity, right? Since there isn't enough money to capture all seasoned citizens into the Rat column anymore like FDR dreamed of doing, they want to make it an explicit transfer of money from the rich to the poor, and continue to buy the votes of the labor unions in the process by allowing them (and perhaps any non-union type lucky enough to work in the same industry, though they'll try like Hell to limit it to union types) to retire far earlier than the rest of us sops.
Posted by: steveegg at November 12, 2010 12:49 PM (51MkX)
SSA needs what's coming in now just to fund current obligations. Income = payouts.
Oh, and if more people keep working past 70, that's fewer jobs for younger people. One of the points of SS was to get people out of the workforce so younger people with families could work. Ditto keeping kids in high school, so they wouldn't compete with grownups for full time work.
Posted by: jeannie at November 12, 2010 01:19 PM (WJhzW)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 02:14 PM (o2hlb)
Posted by: Monty at November 12, 2010 02:23 PM (o2hlb)
To amplify Monty's last point, the short-term survival of SocSecurity is dependent on the ChiComs monetizing the "Trust" Funds. The moment they, and the other buyers of public Treasury securities, refuse to buy more, it won't matter if there's $2.6 trillion (as there is now), $4 trillion (as there theoretically might be at the peak in a few years), or the last $0.001 trillion (that would be $1 billion for those of you in Rio Linda). Said "Trust" Fund will be more worthless than the electrons that recorded the amount, and the benefits will automatically be cut accordingly.
Posted by: steveegg at November 12, 2010 02:51 PM (51MkX)
"You seem to think that if we only will it to be so, the money will magically appear."
I NEVER said anything to that effect. I just pointed out that no matter HOW MUCH you want to tear down SS and start over OR tell those enrolled now to PREPARE FOR CUTS, They're NOT ABLE TO PREPARE FOR CUTS. That's all I was saying.
My point is that if you dismantle SS, what will happen to those who depend upon it? Answer: they'll go to their respective State agencies OR private agencies for any assistance. The flood of requests will swamp those agencies and bang, zoom you'll have grandma and grandpa in the street begging for help and dying while doing so. Don't think it wouldn't happen. I HAVE to take 2 drugs that if I stop taking them will likely cause a heart attack. If I have to, I'll do WHATEVER I have to to get the money for those drugs. Let's say, if it's a choice of my living or dying and remaining obedient to the law, which do you think I'll choose?
Like I said riot, rebellion and lots of unlawful behavior.
To MMW: you're assuming that those who can't survive without SS will just roll over and accept being kicked to the curb.
THINK AGAIN!
Posted by: jakee308 at November 12, 2010 06:17 PM (fhTf7)
Posted by: drfredc at November 12, 2010 08:57 PM (puRnk)
SS was enacted in August, 1935---life expectancy for all races and both sexes in America was 61.7 years. Benefits started at 62.
For those born in year1960 and forward SS benefits will start at age 67. Today's average life expectancy in America is 78.
So.....in 1935 benefits were set to kick in after the average of death age.
So..... in 2010 if SS benefits and average death age had remained as in 1935, retirement and SS benefits would begin at age 78. Any other questions concerning why SS is insolvent today???
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This horse died after the 100th beating we gave it.
Posted by: Vic at November 12, 2010 08:03 AM (/jbAw)