February 10, 2010
— Ace Video report at the link.
And Gallup just found it 45-45, with this warning to Democrats:
The closeness of the two parties over the past several months on this "generic ballot" measure is similar to that found in most Gallup readings from 1994 through 2005 (spanning the period when Republicans won control of the U.S. House and subsequently maintained it for more than a decade).Closer to elections, Gallup bases its generic-ballot results on voters deemed most likely to vote. Because Republicans are generally more likely than Democrats to turn out to vote, particularly in midterm elections, their positioning improves by several points when the generic ballot is based on likely voters rather than registered voters. Thus, a tie between Democrats and Republicans among registered voters probably corresponds to a Republican lead among likely voters.
And there's an intensity gap, too:
While voter enthusiasm today is fairly high, overall, more than half of Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) say they are 'more enthusiastic' about voting, compared with 41% of Democrats/Democratic leaners.
Voters have a 50% favorable/46% unfavorable view of the Dem party, its lowest rating in the same poll since '84, when Ronald Reagan won 49 states in a record-breaking landslide. Voters actually have a worse opinion of GOPers -- only 44% view the party favorably, compared with 52% who see them unfavorably. But the GOP has added 8 points to their popularity since the last time the question was asked, in Jun. '09.
First lead for the GOP on the Congressional Ballot question since '02, the article says, when Bush managed an unlikely midterm victory.
Posted by: Ace at
10:18 AM
| Comments (27)
Post contains 291 words, total size 2 kb.
Posted by: Dr. Spank at February 10, 2010 10:27 AM (muUqs)
Posted by: Seriously at February 10, 2010 10:27 AM (xj1Du)
Posted by: FreakyBoy at February 10, 2010 10:28 AM (Q41Zh)
Posted by: Village Idiot at February 10, 2010 10:28 AM (utXSy)
Posted by: The DNC at February 10, 2010 10:29 AM (AZGON)
All I can say to this is that we are soooo screwed! But I take consolation in the fact that the statist damn dems are more screwed!
Yippie!
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at February 10, 2010 10:30 AM (r1h5M)
Posted by: George Orwell at February 10, 2010 10:30 AM (AZGON)
Posted by: Dr. Spank at February 10, 2010 10:32 AM (muUqs)
Posted by: Truman North at February 10, 2010 10:36 AM (e8YaH)
One of the problems with this type of question is that they aren't following it up as to why people are mad at the Republicans. Are they mad that the Republicans from 2004 on governed as Democrat-lites? Or are they mad that the Republicans aren't leftwing enough?
I think you'll find the former, in which case those Republican party numbers are mostly meaningless, as you can see in the generic ballot numbers. Conservatives aren't as fixated on party loyalty as liberals are. If the Reps run conservative enough candidates, conservatives will vote for them.
Looking at myself, I don't see the Reps as favorable either. But I'd certainly vote for Brown/Rubio/etc.
Posted by: 18-1 at February 10, 2010 10:37 AM (bgcml)
"First lead for the GOP on the Congressional Ballot question since '02, the article says, when Bush managed an unlikely unprecedented historic unexpected midterm victory."
Much better.
Posted by: reason at February 10, 2010 10:43 AM (XiVKO)
Posted by: unknown jane at February 10, 2010 10:52 AM (5/yRG)
Posted by: Seriously at February 10, 2010 10:52 AM (xj1Du)
Posted by: Stoopid Leftnut at February 10, 2010 10:54 AM (xj1Du)
Always good advice. 2010 is going to be a Very Good Year; how good depends on how good the candidates are and how good they run their campaigns. In case anyone reading this has a Vulcan Mind Meld to John McCain and therefore doesn't know this, good campaigns win elections; lousy campaigns lose them
It also helps to actually be a conservative who can pull in "independents" and demoralize libs ( rather than a squish RINO always reaching towards the Other Side )
Posted by: SantaRosaStan at February 10, 2010 10:57 AM (JrRME)
Posted by: agnostica at February 10, 2010 11:01 AM (gbCNS)
Posted by: nikkolai at February 10, 2010 11:30 AM (i4ujc)
Posted by: Gary B at February 10, 2010 01:31 PM (1gWfF)
Oh my how the time's have changed.... when Generic "cardboard cutout's" of nameless rebublican candidates poll better then real life liberals, then you know that people are beginning to get pissed off.
I prefer name brand to generic... but most of the time generic will do just as well..... where's Joey?
Posted by: Last Conservative In Brooklyn at February 10, 2010 02:01 PM (7uAeI)
My reader code-named Number-Cruncher takes issue with the latest poll offering from the Washington Post:
I love reading polls, specifically partisan polls. This latest from the Washington Post is a sampling embarrassment. Rather than bore you with a long e-mail, here is the bottom line: Washington Post used the following sample: Democrats 32 Republicans 23 Independent/Other 38/7 Total 45 Compare that to the 2008 exit Polls Democrats 39 Republicans 32 Independent/Other 29 So let me get this straight the electorate consists of 1.28 Democrats for every Republican in January of 2010 when in November 2008 that ratio was 1.21. Said another way, if this poll were indicative of reality, the current landscape is even BETTER for Democrats now than it was in November of 2008. Of course, If that kind of sampling is what it will take to keep Obama over 50%, Obama's got serious problems! Democrats can point to this poll all they want (reminds me of how some of us were grasping at straws only 15 months ago with McCain . . . remember Zogby showing the race within 2 or 3 over the weekend?). Truth be told this is a ridiculous poll, and should not be trusted. Any national poll that indicates a sampling of more Democrats today as compared to 2008 exit polls should be tossed out.Posted by: Seriously at February 10, 2010 02:12 PM (xj1Du)
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