February 10, 2010

Uh-Oh: Republicans Beating Democrats 48-45 on Generic Congressional in WashPost/ABC Poll
— Ace

Video report at the link.

And Gallup just found it 45-45, with this warning to Democrats:

The closeness of the two parties over the past several months on this "generic ballot" measure is similar to that found in most Gallup readings from 1994 through 2005 (spanning the period when Republicans won control of the U.S. House and subsequently maintained it for more than a decade).

Closer to elections, Gallup bases its generic-ballot results on voters deemed most likely to vote. Because Republicans are generally more likely than Democrats to turn out to vote, particularly in midterm elections, their positioning improves by several points when the generic ballot is based on likely voters rather than registered voters. Thus, a tie between Democrats and Republicans among registered voters probably corresponds to a Republican lead among likely voters.

And there's an intensity gap, too:

While voter enthusiasm today is fairly high, overall, more than half of Republicans (including independents who lean Republican) say they are 'more enthusiastic' about voting, compared with 41% of Democrats/Democratic leaners.

"Historic lows."

Voters have a 50% favorable/46% unfavorable view of the Dem party, its lowest rating in the same poll since '84, when Ronald Reagan won 49 states in a record-breaking landslide. Voters actually have a worse opinion of GOPers -- only 44% view the party favorably, compared with 52% who see them unfavorably. But the GOP has added 8 points to their popularity since the last time the question was asked, in Jun. '09.

First lead for the GOP on the Congressional Ballot question since '02, the article says, when Bush managed an unlikely midterm victory.

Posted by: Ace at 10:18 AM | Comments (27)
Post contains 291 words, total size 2 kb.

1 Here I come.

Posted by: Pudding Tsunami at February 10, 2010 10:21 AM (2sJK0)

2 Ace, you should do a story on the death of Captain Phil Harris (Deadliest Catch). He smoke, drank and had crabs, possibly a regular here.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at February 10, 2010 10:27 AM (muUqs)

3 The trend is our friend.  The intensity level will only increase as "2010" is a war cry, infecting more and more every day.  ~snicker and snort~

Posted by: Seriously at February 10, 2010 10:27 AM (xj1Du)

4 Man, is it me, or does it seem to you forty years of Democrat rule went by just like that?

Posted by: FreakyBoy at February 10, 2010 10:28 AM (Q41Zh)

5 i agree with dr. spank, let's make him the site mascot

Posted by: Village Idiot at February 10, 2010 10:28 AM (utXSy)

6 Voters have a 50% favorable/46% unfavorable view of the Dem party, its lowest rating in the same poll since '84, when Ronald Reagan won 49 states in a record-breaking landslide. Well, Reagan is dead, so we have nothing to worry about.

Posted by: The DNC at February 10, 2010 10:29 AM (AZGON)

7

All I can say to this is that we are soooo screwed!  But I take consolation in the fact that the statist damn dems are more screwed!

Yippie!

Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at February 10, 2010 10:30 AM (r1h5M)

8 God bless Captain Phil. I never laughed as loud as I did when I saw him do a Mother's Day interstitial on the Discovery Channel. "Happy Fuckin' Mother's Day." That man was smoking, drinking god.

Posted by: George Orwell at February 10, 2010 10:30 AM (AZGON)

9 Phil may have commented under the name Captain Hate.

Posted by: Dr. Spank at February 10, 2010 10:32 AM (muUqs)

10 Not sure why this is so close, even in the execrable WaPost

Posted by: Truman North at February 10, 2010 10:36 AM (e8YaH)

11 Voters actually have a worse opinion of GOPers -- only 44% view the party favorably, compared with 52% who see them unfavorably. But the GOP has added 8 points to their popularity since the last time the question was asked, in Jun. '09.

One of the problems with this type of question is that they aren't following it up as to why people are mad at the Republicans. Are they mad that the Republicans from 2004 on governed as Democrat-lites? Or are they mad that the Republicans aren't leftwing enough?

I think you'll find the former, in which case those Republican party numbers are mostly meaningless, as you can see in the generic ballot numbers. Conservatives aren't as fixated on party loyalty as liberals are. If the Reps run conservative enough candidates, conservatives will vote for them.

Looking at myself, I don't see the Reps as favorable either. But I'd certainly vote for Brown/Rubio/etc.

Posted by: 18-1 at February 10, 2010 10:37 AM (bgcml)

12

"First lead for the GOP on the Congressional Ballot question since '02, the article says, when Bush managed an unlikely unprecedented historic unexpected midterm victory."

Much better.

Posted by: reason at February 10, 2010 10:43 AM (XiVKO)

13 Count me in as a vote for Capt. Phil as mascot -- he was one of the only reasons to watch that show.

Posted by: unknown jane at February 10, 2010 10:52 AM (5/yRG)

14 I would add that this poll is from the Clymers at al-WaPo and al-AP, hence, its honesty in weighting is highly questionable.  They likely massaged the data with the care of the alleged wife beater John Edwards doing his hair--gotta give hope to 'rat contributors as 2010 approaches.   I'll trust Rass' 8 points.    That said, we need to run and act like we're 10 points down.

Posted by: Seriously at February 10, 2010 10:52 AM (xj1Du)

15 Not credible. I didn't see this reported on the Huffington Post or Politico.

Posted by: Stoopid Leftnut at February 10, 2010 10:54 AM (xj1Du)

16 14 we need to run and act like we're 10 points down.

Always good advice.  2010 is going to be a Very Good Year; how good depends on how good the candidates are and how good they run their campaigns.  In case anyone reading this has a Vulcan Mind Meld to John McCain and therefore doesn't know this, good campaigns win elections; lousy campaigns lose them

It also helps to actually be a conservative who can pull in "independents" and demoralize libs ( rather than a squish RINO always reaching towards the Other Side )

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at February 10, 2010 10:57 AM (JrRME)

17 Sarah Palin should keep these poll updates written on her hand. That might get some attention.

Posted by: agnostica at February 10, 2010 11:01 AM (gbCNS)

18 November cannot come soon enough!

Posted by: GarandFan at February 10, 2010 11:21 AM (ZQBnQ)

19 Again, Obama has a chance to be truly unprecedented. As in 80-90 House seats. Nice.

Posted by: nikkolai at February 10, 2010 11:30 AM (i4ujc)

20 Obama is simply amazing.....it took him one year to have the entire Democrat Political agenda totally MELTDOWN. Bush did not get this until 2006 well into his 2nd term.


Posted by: Gary B at February 10, 2010 01:31 PM (1gWfF)

21

Oh my how the time's have changed.... when Generic "cardboard cutout's" of nameless rebublican candidates poll better then real life liberals, then you know that people are beginning to get pissed off.

I prefer name brand to generic... but most of the time generic will do just as well..... where's Joey?

Posted by: Last Conservative In Brooklyn at February 10, 2010 02:01 PM (7uAeI)

22 Regarding my earlier comment on al-WaPo samples, from NRO's Campaign Spot:

My reader code-named Number-Cruncher takes issue with the latest poll offering from the Washington Post:

I love reading polls, specifically partisan polls. This latest from the Washington Post is a sampling embarrassment.   Rather than bore you with a long e-mail, here is the bottom line:   Washington Post used the following sample:   Democrats 32 Republicans 23 Independent/Other 38/7 Total 45   Compare that to the 2008 exit Polls   Democrats 39 Republicans 32 Independent/Other 29   So let me get this straight the electorate consists of 1.28 Democrats for every Republican in January of 2010 when in November 2008 that ratio was 1.21.  Said another way, if this poll were indicative of reality, the current landscape is even BETTER for Democrats now than it was in November of 2008. Of course, If that kind of sampling is what it will take to keep Obama over 50%, Obama's got serious problems!   Democrats can point to this poll all they want (reminds me of how some of us were grasping at straws only 15 months ago with McCain . . . remember Zogby showing the race within 2 or 3 over the weekend?). Truth be told this is a ridiculous poll, and should not be trusted. Any national poll that indicates a sampling of more Democrats today as compared to 2008 exit polls should be tossed out.

Posted by: Seriously at February 10, 2010 02:12 PM (xj1Du)

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