March 19, 2010

Weekly Standard's Count: Pelosi Doesn't Have the Votes Without Stupak's Dozen
— Ace

A little more optimism, since Gabe's call me a pussy.

John Boccieri becomes the fourth Democrat who voted against the health care bill in November to flip his vote to "yes". He joins Betsy Markey, Bart Gordon, and Dennis Kucinich. I expect Scott Murphy of New York to become the fifth soon. Other potential flippers from "no" to "yes" include Suzanne Kosmas (Fla.), Brian Baird (Wash.), Jim Matheson (Utah), and Jason Altmire (Pa.).

But there's good news (I think): Peter DeFazio just announced he's flipping from Yes to No. And even if Pelosi can flip ten "no" votes to "yes," she's still short. Here's why.

If the number of Democrats who flip from "yes" to "no" is greater than the number who flip from "no" to "yes," the bill will be defeated.

Bart Stupak's coalition of pro-life Democrats is larger than many had assumed. While Stupak has claimed to have a dozen members willing to flip from "yes" to "no," most Democrats assumed he only had five. I think Stupak has at least nine Democrats in his coalition. Yes, I know politicians can go back on their word, but House leadership is still frantically trying to cut a deal with Stupak, which indicates they don't have the votes.

Meanwhile, though, some of Stupak's votes are talking with the Senate about the "guarantee" of a standalone, separate bill to forbid federal dollars being spent on abortions.

“There could be some kind of commitment from the other body to act on this later … to ensure that the Senate language does not remain law,” he said.

Rahall said that securing such an agreement could open up six to 10 members, including himself, to voting for the Senate bill and reconciliation language.

...

Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-Ohio), another member who remains a no because of the Senate abortion language, on Thursday hinted that discussions along the lines Rahall mentioned were in the works.

Right, a "guarantee" to implement what they have previously categorically rejected. Remember, they only gave Ben Nelson his weaker language on abortion because they did not have a 60th vote without him.

But you know -- if Chuckie Schumer now "guarantees" he'll put up an anti-abortion bill, when he has absolutely no incentive to do so whatsoever, then these guys will vote for the bill.

Unbelievable.

McCormack addresses this, too, noting there are only 39 Republican pro-life votes in the Senate, meaning they'd need 21 Democrats to vote with them to overcome a filibuster.

Which 21 Democratic Senators could those possibly be?

Posted by: Ace at 01:12 PM | Comments (45)
Post contains 444 words, total size 3 kb.

1 I'm opptimistic.

If they had the votes then the people like were seeing would have stayed no's because they are toast if they vote for this.

Posted by: Hoover at March 19, 2010 01:15 PM (sD7bS)

2 I'm gonna go all Eeyore - what's preventing Nancy from delaying the vote until she gives enough goodies away to get 216?

Posted by: David in San Diego at March 19, 2010 01:16 PM (GF+6V)

3 2 I'm gonna go all Eeyore - what's preventing Nancy from delaying the vote until she gives enough goodies away to get 216?

Posted by: David in San Diego at March 19, 2010 05:16 PM (GF+6V)

If they don't hold the vote on Sunday like they've been saying... it will weaken the already timid Democrats who have gone out on the line.  All we need to do is push this off past the Congress Easter break, and it's dead.  They cannot survive another "August Townhall Rush."

Posted by: enoxo at March 19, 2010 01:18 PM (Aterp)

4 Posted by: David in San Diego at March 19, 2010 05:16 PM (GF+6V)

Nothing but the longer she holds out the bigger the risk she looses as many, if not more.

We were talking about this yesterday...will she pull it if the votes aren't there or will she push it and hope that it's too big to fail.


Posted by: DrewM. at March 19, 2010 01:18 PM (9B5OK)

5 Nobody wants to answer my question?  I guess all te other moron's got a bad case of March Madness.

Posted by: David in San Diego at March 19, 2010 01:18 PM (GF+6V)

6 i withdraw my previous complaint.

Thanks to Drew and enoxo.

Posted by: David in San Diego at March 19, 2010 01:19 PM (GF+6V)

7 21 Senators?

Bayh
Nelson
Lincoln
Conrad

Screw it.  There is no chance to get to 21.

Posted by: wtfci at March 19, 2010 01:19 PM (+zo63)

8

http://tinyurl.com/ykmj78u

JOIN "I WILL NOT COMPLY" FB GROUP

Posted by: pam at March 19, 2010 01:20 PM (h8R9p)

9 I have not been able to be online or the phone this afternoon - has anyone heard if Lincoln Davis (D-Tn-4) has made a statement? a formal statement? he is suppose to be a no but I want a damn statement - fucking pansy.

Posted by: obamastillsucks at March 19, 2010 01:20 PM (1l2bp)

10

If they don't hold the vote on Sunday like they've been saying... it will weaken the already timid Democrats who have gone out on the line.  All we need to do is push this off past the Congress Easter break, and it's dead.  They cannot survive another "August Townhall Rush."

 

This is fucking driving me BATSHIT!

 

Posted by: Max Power at March 19, 2010 01:20 PM (q177U)

11 you gave them 2 minutes to answer the question?

Posted by: GMan at March 19, 2010 01:20 PM (zQiqq)

12 Keep fighting.  It ain't over till Ethel Mermen sings!

Posted by: MDr VB1.0 CS1st at March 19, 2010 01:21 PM (ucq49)

13 Stupak's 13: The Coalitioning.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at March 19, 2010 01:21 PM (3fiIy)

14 Altmire just said he's voting NO...


Posted by: Hunter at March 19, 2010 01:22 PM (AZ6P8)

15 Per Hot Air...

Posted by: Hunter at March 19, 2010 01:22 PM (AZ6P8)

16 I hate these bastards with every fiber in my body.  I can't believe how much I hate them.  (I don't hate people).  It's weird, to hate people I don't even fricking know.  I hate what they are doing to this country and I hate the sleazy underhanded way they're doing it.  Obama's smarter than I thought.  He knew he would need all the unspent stimulus money to push this thing through, that's why it was all backloaded.  What a venal, corrupt, evil party.

Posted by: runningrn at March 19, 2010 01:23 PM (CfmlF)

17 Even the flippers, they just want this over ASAP.

They know they are f'king dead men this Nov.  They are just praying they can cure cancer before Nov '10 to save their asses.

I think this year is much worse for D's than '94.  This is going to be UGLY for them.

Posted by: Hoover at March 19, 2010 01:23 PM (sD7bS)

18

"5 Nobody wants to answer my question? "

Ha. I know the internet is all about instant gratification, but perhaps wait longer than 2 minutes for a reply.

Posted by: Randy at March 19, 2010 01:24 PM (zQKSr)

19 Ellsworth just bailed on Stupak. Stupak has a press conference tomorrow AM.

This is not good.

Posted by: DrewM. at March 19, 2010 01:25 PM (9B5OK)

20 It ain't over till Ethel Mermen Kirsty Alley sings!

fify

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at March 19, 2010 01:25 PM (ympF8)

21 runningrn,

I know exactly how you feel.  I earlier said I felt like I was levitating out of my chair with anger.  I mean...literally so angry I felt lighter than I really was (I think that's a flight or fight adrenaline response or something).  This can't be good for me or anyone else so stressed out by all this.

Posted by: GMan at March 19, 2010 01:25 PM (zQiqq)

22 I'm gonna go all Eeyore - what's preventing Nancy from delaying the vote until she gives enough goodies away to get 216?

O.k. I'll take a 'stab' at it.

Because your mother already gave all the goodies away last night. She's a screamer, I hope we didn't wake you.

Posted by: Sean Connery at March 19, 2010 01:25 PM (2hpnI)

23 16 I hate these bastards with every fiber in my body.  I can't believe how much I hate them.  (I don't hate people).  It's weird, to hate people I don't even fricking know.  I hate what they are doing to this country and I hate the sleazy underhanded way they're doing it.  Obama's smarter than I thought.  He knew he would need all the unspent stimulus money to push this thing through, that's why it was all backloaded.  What a venal, corrupt, evil party.

^This. I don't know if I'd ever be able to vote for a Dem now. They have embraced communism whole-heartedly.

Posted by: Miss'80sBaby at March 19, 2010 01:26 PM (J46Fi)

24 2 I'm gonna go all Eeyore - what's preventing Nancy from delaying the vote until she gives enough goodies away to get 216?

Posted by: David in San Diego at March 19, 2010 05:16 PM (GF+6V)

Nothing, except she doesn't want to recess and let everyone go home and get a nasty ear full from their constituents.

Posted by: maddogg at March 19, 2010 01:26 PM (OlN4e)

25 Can't wait until the IRS wants to check if I have insurance.  I suspect I won't be the first to tell them what they will hear.

Posted by: Guy Fawkes at March 19, 2010 01:27 PM (ympF8)

26

I suspect I won't be the first to tell them what they will hear.

Go fuck yourself?

Posted by: ErikW at March 19, 2010 01:28 PM (N6UQT)

27

Somebody needs to keep score of just the "flippers."  They're the only ones who count because the number of former Y and N Dems is 216-37, exactly the minimum number for need for passage this time.  So, for every No that flips Yes, Pelosi needs to flip a Yes to No.  Whoever gets the most flips wins, it's that simple.  (A tie goes to Pelosi, since the orginal number 216-37 is in her favor).  I think this score significantly favors the opposition to the bill.  But there's still enough Noes that could flip that its still not decisive.

Posted by: Dave H at March 19, 2010 01:29 PM (PbLbZ)

28 I think Pelosi shot her wad a little early when she heard the Pope was a pedophile.  That, or perhaps the missing two years of her life down on Haight-Ashbury back in the 60's has finally caught up with her.

Posted by: 57 States at March 19, 2010 01:29 PM (NvGW1)

29 I'm not too optimistic but I am feeling a bit better. We had a relatively nice day in SE Wisconsin and I had the day off work, so I cut down 1/2 dozen bushes that weren't making it any longer. Then I tore them apart limb by limb, each branch an Obamacare supporter in my mind's eye. F'n cathartic!

Posted by: sawhorse at March 19, 2010 01:29 PM (MVgm3)

30 16,

I've despised these cockholters with my entire being forevah, and it gets worse each day.

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at March 19, 2010 01:29 PM (NWykk)

31 I suspect that the IRS will be history if Paul Ryan gets to be the Hoss!

Posted by: 'Nam Grunt at March 19, 2010 01:31 PM (NWykk)

32

Ace,

I think the Senate passing stricter abortion language is impossible and even if they did it would have to pass the house and that would never happen.

The only reason the house passed the stupak amendment was to get their votes for the health care bill. After it's passed they will give the pro life dems an F U sandwich.

Posted by: robtr at March 19, 2010 01:31 PM (fwSHf)

33

If Nancy calls recess that's the sign the storm has passed. If it is going to be done (this round), it will have to be done by Sunday night.

Total speculation on my part with those predictions.

Posted by: Jim in San Diego at March 19, 2010 01:32 PM (F09Uo)

34 The thing that really pisses me off, isn't just that wealth redistribution is anti-american, but they're bribing corrupt congresscritters with tax money paid by the MAJORITY that don't fucking want this! Now that's the real audacity of hope. Small wonder why I couldn't make sense out of that title.

Posted by: ontherocks at March 19, 2010 01:33 PM (HBqDo)

35 26 I suspect I won't be the first to tell them what they will hear. Go fuck yourself? No, probably the sound of a round being chambered.

Posted by: 57 States at March 19, 2010 01:35 PM (NvGW1)

36 26

I suspect I won't be the first to tell them what they will hear.

Go fuck yourself?

Posted by: ErikW at March 19, 2010 05:28 PM (N6UQT)

That would be the feel-good move, but never go to war with a government bureaucrat; they typically have more access to much more resources than you ever will. Just smile, hand them your lawyer's card, answer no questions and politely inform them that you cannot answer any questions. Do not pull the blaze of glory move with these folks.

Posted by: Jim in San Diego at March 19, 2010 01:38 PM (F09Uo)

37 Democrats love abortion, and if these fucks vote for it, it's official.

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at March 19, 2010 01:38 PM (mHQ7T)

38 " 32 Ace,

I think the Senate passing stricter abortion language is impossible and even if they did it would have to pass the house and that would never happen.

The only reason the house passed the stupak amendment was to get their votes for the health care bill. After it's passed they will give the pro life dems an F U sandwich. "

This is so blantantly obvious that if Stupack & co fall for it they are fools or liars.

Posted by: Randy at March 19, 2010 01:40 PM (zQKSr)

39 We'll get you at recess.

Posted by: The Voters at March 19, 2010 01:44 PM (w41GQ)

40

@35"The thing that really pisses me off, isn't just that wealth redistribution is anti-american, but they're bribing corrupt congresscritters with tax money paid by the MAJORITY that don't fucking want this! "

Fucking galling, ain't it? Let's hope Coburn makes them sell themselves for nothing, at least.

Posted by: Randy at March 19, 2010 01:44 PM (zQKSr)

41

We'll get you at recess.

Ben Nelson's shunning at the pizza parlor is only the tip of the iceberg.

Posted by: ErikW at March 19, 2010 01:47 PM (N6UQT)

42

I hate these bastards with every fiber in my body.  I can't believe how much I hate them.

I know you do.  I can feel your anger.  It gives you focus -- makes you stronger.

Posted by: Dr. Varno at March 19, 2010 01:47 PM (3fiIy)

43

I highly recommend Valium to soothe the savage nerves.

Posted by: Antimatter at March 19, 2010 01:47 PM (gbCNS)

44 I'm not above calling someone a pussy, but I'm afraid it ain't looking good.  The Dems will do whatever it takes to wrangle up the last few votes- they've said as much.  I suspect that some of the supposed "no" / leaning "no" votes are only holding out for a bigger portion of taxpayer bacon.  Give it to them and they'll vote yes.  What's a few hundred million here and there? 

Posted by: Hollowpoint at March 19, 2010 02:03 PM (rf03a)

45

My insurance doesn't actually cover Valium, so I pay cash for the much cheaper Diazepam generic. If Odumbass starts putting it in gumball machines, I'll keep my quarter in protest.

Posted by: Antimatter at March 19, 2010 03:37 PM (gbCNS)

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