1 Bank it.

2 Feingold has always run in fairly tight re-election races.  Hopefully, his number is up this time.

3 That ad's great and not just because the middle daughter looks confused at the camera with eyes that say "please rescue me from my emptiness, ace."

4 Yep.  Jenna's nutworthy.

5 But did he say he can see Canada from his house?

6 I'd hit the mom.

7 Wisconsin is a typical "blue" state. The voters are conservative, on average, in the same way they are everywhere in the U.S., but their pre-political identification with Democrats leads them to vote D—except when the election is a strong "issues" election. Then they make a decision about who gets their votes, and the more conservative candidate wins.

Huckabites can't win there, unless they're Democrats, but fiscal cons of every sort can, and have.

However, "Feingold" is a famous name in Wisconsin, and famous names have an almost insuperable advantage in "blue" states. (See Minnesota, California.) I wouldn't put this one in the win column. Feingold has to do at least one more thing that really pisses them off to earn a loss. He probably won't.

8 I love the dig at a certain Teleprompter-powered professional politician.

9 Greta's a cheesehead, I wonder if she'll show an interest and do something about the race on her show.

10 Is Johnson going to make Feingold (and the DSCC) spend lots of money to defend this seat, that could be spent someplace else?? 

11 he's better than Westlake but the dude spooks me. There isn't anything on him at all when it comes to politics outside of a couple Tea Party appearances and his debates. I want to like him but the dude is too vague and is a ghost when it comes to his biography (Obama has nothing on this dude when it comes to this department). Been quite a few times where we've thought Feingold was on his way out only to get bent over and sadly, I've got that same vibe. It will be close but Feingold will more than likely win again.

12

Wisconsin is more purple than blue, overall.  Extreme blueness in Madison and Milwaukee, of course.  I think Gore beat Bush here by only a few thousand votes - about 1 vote per precinct if I recall correctly.  We also had a Repub govenor (Tommy Thompson) for 4 terms.  

Johnson is a business owner who talks about jobs and doesn't sound like a politician when he does it.  He is doing a very nice job getting his name recognition up and he is just darn likable.  A few months ago, I would have bet a lot of money against anyone beating Feingold - even despite a wave election.  Now....I honestly expect Johnson to pull it out.  I have already put my $$ where my mouth is.

And Ace?  I think that look said more about 'restraining order' than 'rescuing from emptiness'.  No offense.

13

Before I even looked at the video or clicked the comments I laid a silent bet how soon someone would announce they would hit one or all of the females. 

An Ewok shall lead them.

14 Before I even looked at the video or clicked the comments I laid a silent bet how soon someone would announce they would hit one or all of the females.

Hey, at least I stayed in my generation.

15 Hey, at least I stayed in my generation.

Geez, I wish denny would stay in his own species.

16 He got my fi-dolla.

17 Mark Belling is the big-time conservative talk show host in Milwaukee, and he was hosting Limbaugh's show on Monday and Tuesday this week.  I highly suggest (if you can) get a hold of either Belling or Limbaugh's podcast from that day because during the 3rd hour of the program, he has Ron Johnson on the air for an interview.

I grew up in Milwaukee and now live in the suburbs of Chicago.  I listen to Belling still daily (old habits die hard) and he's been following this race very very closely.  Johnson is a very normal guy who just got fed up with the direction of government and decided to become a first-time candidate.  He's made a few rookie mistakes, but nothing major, and he and his staff have been proven to be remarkably fast learners.  It's going to be an interestnig November.

Anyway, again, highly suggest finding Belling's podcast (I subscribe to it via Google Listen on my android phone) from 8/31.

18 I can see him fishing with Jack Lemmon and Walter Mathau down by the bait store / ristorante.

19 My second chakra compels me to vote for this family

20 The GOP cuties must be making liberals burn something fierce.

21 I've spent the last year in Madison, and am generally very familiar with the politics of the state, so I can tell you a few things:


1.) Wisconsin is not an ultra-liberal state.  In fact, it's a pretty evenly-divided swing state that leans to the left due to its Progressive Party legacy (this is the home of Fightin' Bob LaFollette and William Proxmire, after all.) Bush lost WI in 2000 by a couple of percentage points, and in 2004 by an agonizingly close margin (around 40,000 votes or so). 

3.) I haven't seen the Democrats so scared of any GOP candidate in years as they are of Johnson.  What you see is what you get out of him: he's disarmingly genuine and non-politiciany, and he is winning over the local journalists covering his campaign in a way that's downright unusual.  His frankness and touchingly public dedication to 'learning on the job' of running for Senator is getting him off the hook of some of his more goofy

4.) His commercials are getting major play in Madison media markets, and they're playing well.  He's able to run on the "not a politician" angle against Feingold in a major way.  We're hearing a lot about Russ's "28 years in DC" these days, and this is all hilarious

5.) Feingold is likely doomed by the fact that, mavericky reputation notwithstanding, he's always been several clicks to the left of the state's population.  Normally WI put up with him because they liked that attitude AND because he had the fortune to run for reelection in good years, (1998 especially).  This time the voters aren't having any of that (healthcare and the stimulus undid all his maverick rep in no time flat), and the national climate is...well, you know.

6.) It will be a close race no matter what.  Johnson's ceiling is 53% or so, I'm guessing, and it may end up being a race in the hallowed Wisconsin tradition 'Landslide' Bob Kasten's two narrow victories (and narrow loss to Feingold).

22

As noted above by conservativeinthecity, Madison & Milwaukee are blue zones, but Wisconsin has red zones too, like the Green Bay area.  Milwaukee had alot of Acorn/voter fraud issues in the 2008 election, thug operatives flattening tires, nasty stuff. 

 

Johnson should be able to best Feingold in a year like 2010 is shaping up to be, I've spent a lot of time in Wisconsin over the years and have never met anyone as lefty/obnoxious as Feingold.  I've often wondered how he gets elected.  Herb Kohl makes some sense, the family owns a chain of department stores and he has great name recognition, plus he's "nice".  Nobody has ever accused Feingold of being nice.

23 Johnson is the rare bird: someone with no political experience who turns out to be a hell of a candidate. I think he wins this and I think he'll be a great senator.

24 CORRECTIONS:

3.) "goofy missteps." is how that should end.

4.) "this is all hilarious because Russ Feingold has defined his public persona in terms of a reputation for independence and integrity.  He's the last politician who would normally be susceptible to this line of attack."

25

 The GOP cuties must be making liberals burn something fierce.

Yeah.  Bella Abzug was the start of the liberugly legacy.

26 Before I even looked at the video or clicked the comments I laid a silent bet how soon someone would announce they would hit one or all of the females. What did you win in this silent bet? Will you have to blow yourself?

27 Rode 'em, Rammed 'em, Wrecked 'em

28 Also, Wisconsin is very big on the outdoors life, hunting especially.  Hunters come from all over the midwest to hunt in Wisconsin.  Second Amendment issues like the EPA trying to ban lead bullets would make everyone involved in those industries upset.  How does the NRA rate Feingold? 

29 Liked the fist bump by the kids.  Down to earth commercial.  Likey.

30 I agree with many of the comments about Johnson from the Cheeseheads (or former ones) among the posts. As a fellow Wisconsinite, I see the most promise to unseed Feingold that I have seen in the 12+ years that I have lived here. Feingold has been entrenched (much like Kohl, who simply likes the fact that he can sit with the cool kids in the Senate cafeteria as radio host Mark Belling often reminds his listeners) and voters have been unwilling to really look past him...that, and the Repubs have run some really flawed candidates. Johnson is running a real disciplined campaign thus far. He has impressed many of us because, while he entered the race in the late spring, he seemed to get caught up to speed rather quickly. And Feingold has had a couple of slip ups (like having a couple of lobbyists featured in a commercial and some townhalls that came off really disconnected). Another factor that may benefit Johnson in addition to voter discontent is the Gov's race. Scott Walker will be the likely Repub candidate and he will face off against the Dem mayor of Milwaukee, Tom Barrett. Barrett has a very thin resume of actual accomplishment, especially when it comes to jobs and fiscal issues. While Barrett is a career pol, he's one of those "don't rock the boat" types. Walker, on the other hand, has won reelection twice as Co. Supervisor in heavily Democratic Milwaukee Co. He has made decisions that are unpopular with the entrenched usual suspects (teachers union, county union, and lefties of all stripes) but he has not balked at cutting an extremely bloated budget that was paired with a pension scandal that outraged the voters so much they have not turned back to the Dems for county leadership since. Walker has a better than 50/50 chance at the governorship. The voters that will be looking at Walker will take a serious look at Johnson and his message of jobs and fiscal responsibility.

31 This state is a lot redder than most people think.  One of the reasons we keep going blue is the completely retarded election rules.  Want to vote in Wisconsin?  Bring a '"friend" to vouch that you live in the state and your good to go.  The amount of vote fraud last time around was almost a standing joke.  There have been provable cases of voter fraud going back for years now.

32 One of the reasons we keep going blue is the completely retarded election rules.  Want to vote in Wisconsin?  Bring a '"friend" to vouch that you live in the state and your good to go.  The amount of vote fraud last time around was almost a standing joke.  There have been provable cases of voter fraud going back for years now.

You know, I'm tempted to pull that trick myself on November 2nd.  Technically I'm registered to vote in MD (and will do so, because Ehrlich needs my help).  But I do live in Madison....

33 I've seen him on tv quite a bit here in Milwaukee and while not particularly charismatic in that "sell you something" way he is very, very likable in that "you'd trust him to watch your house over a long weekend" way.

In Wisconsin, when it comes to local politicians (on President, its party identification, mostly) people vote on a very personal level. The reason a complete whack-job leftist like Feingold could win in Wisconsin for so long was because he said what he meant and he meant what he said and he was always pragmatic about taking care of Wisconsin interests.

This year, they have a likable, non-politician running against him in a wave year and its going to happen. I didn't believe it at all earlier but the more I see of this new guy and the more reliably the polls come out against Feingold, I think its the year he goes down.

But yeah, if you're missing anything about Wisconsin voters, its the gut-style "my kinda guy" voting they do and that will fall in Johnson's favor this year.

34

I listen the local Reich Wing Media here in Milawaukee - Johnson has got to be running an ad practically every 15mins. 

Wisconsin is very swing-statish and might have swung to GWB absent some obvious vote fraud.  Madison and Milwaukee are just about balanced out by the rest of the state.  It helps that the Walker is a real top notch candidate for Governor and really the odds-on favorite to win against the Milwaukee mayor who is kinda going through the motions but doesn't really seem to want the job. 

Wisconsin has a lot of blue collar union types who are culturally conservative and really don't like Cap & Tax environmental crap.  There was a big to-do a few months back where the Obama administration almost killed a $600 million deal that Bucyrus (a local mining equipment manufacturing company) had made with a company in India.  The reason?  Because they were going to sell mining equipment that was going to be used to help dig a coal mine to power a coal-fired power plant, and that wasn't going to be environmentally friendly - I shit you not.  They backed off on the decision and tried to make it look like it was only because of the special pleading of the Milwaukee mayor (and Democratic candidate for governor) that the deal was back on.  Everybody saw through that obvious BS.  When you have union guys picketting Obama, you know you've pissed off the wrong people if you hope to win as a Democrat in a Republican year.

35 Cheesehead Monor here, as well. Definitely agreeing with Play2 up there; with the problems the state's been having with Diamond Jim Doyle in the Governor's chair with all the mis-management and outright pillaging of funds from various and sundry state departments, most of the folks I've talked to are fed up with the Dems running the state - I've got a feeling that's going to bleed over into the Fed race as well. Here's hoping!

36 I heard him on Limbaugh this week.

Sounds like a good guy.  I hope he wins.. very smart, great personality.. just a guy who HAD it and is doing something about it.

37 I have been impressed with Johnson like no other R candidate in a long time. Feingold is a douche and treats the public like shit.  I work all over the Fox Valley/Green Bay area and people are pissed off. I think Johnson has the momentum.

38

The last few years of one party Dem rule have turned this state into a Michigan wannabee shithole. They are widening I-94 from Milw. to the Ill. line from 6 lanes to 8, because business can't get out of this state fast enough. We lost Polaris in Osceola, 500 jobs, Parker Pen, GM truck plant in Janesville, almost lost Mercury Marine and may still enventually, 2000 jobs, Harley is building a new plant out of state and may move what's left here to KC, Menards was forced to open new production in Iowa by DNR, the same people who stopped Ashley Furniture to expand to Ky, Bucyrus was talking about 1000 lay-offs if that India deal was stopped,my job, driving for Kohls, was moved to Ill., and that's to say nothing of the paper industry if Doyle had gotten his state cap and trade idea pushed through. Russ will find out this ain't 2004 anymore.

39 In Oregon, Ron Wyden is fighting for his seat. Wyden is a decent enough guy and he works hard, but he's a total leftist zealot. He voted against TARP because he hates banks and big industry, but he voted for the health insurance takeover and "stimulus" act. His advertising is hilariously devoid of any mention of his party (Democrat) but tries to portray him as a maverick who fights Pelosi and Reid, a one man engine of reform and transparency.

The problem is his opponent is about as squishy a RINO as you can get, he's pro abortion, he thought the stimulus just wasn't done right, and he'd have voted for a version of TARP.

At the same time, he's for repealing the Health Insurance Takeover Act, wants a balanced budget, and wants to make the Bush tax cuts permanent. So, you know, he's not all bad.

Its just its Oregon so nobody on any blogs pay any attention to the battle (except Frum Forum).

40 I'm a volunteer for Paul Ryan's campaign in SE Wisconsin - 3rd election doing that.  Also I'm a poll worker here so I have my ear to the ground, so to speak.  People are excited about the very real possibility that we may rid ourselves of Russ and get an actual business conservative here in the Dairy State.   I also have a business selling election gear and political stuff, and all I can say is that people are voting with their pocketbook.  I've been selling a lot of Ron Johnson stuff to folks as far away as New Jersey.

The guy is refreshing.  Feingold needs to go, and take his little dog Kohl right along with him.

41 Maybe mama winger will check into this thread. If she gives an endorsement it's gold. She started talking about Paul Ryan years ago.
Posted by: Downsized Upscale at September 02, 2010 05:40 PM


Why, thank you for that.  And you're right - I did! 

Isn't he teh awesome?  WhadItellya?

42 People in Kenosha have known that Ryan was the shit for quite some time... but it takes a while for anything from my home town to make national news... unless its a shooting.

43 Refreshingly normal people with a sense of humor.... I HATE them!

44 You know, I'm tempted to pull that trick myself on November 2nd.  Technically I'm registered to vote in MD (and will do so, because Ehrlich needs my help).  But I do live in Madison....

You may as well, there was a UW-Eau Claire student who openly bragged about voting for Kerry 3 times... to a reporter for the local newspaper.

45 @Moron:  The reason a complete whack-job leftist like Feingold could win in Wisconsin for so long was because he said what he meant and he meant what he said

Excellent insight! 

So why the Hell don't REPUBLICANS try that?