January 10, 2010
— Ace Karl explains the differences in the polls. The Globe poll polled only 83 independents -- not nearly enough for a decent sub-sample. PPP polled 290.
Fred Bauer notes the Globe's independents simply do not conform to other polls' findings about them.
I think a lot of the discrepancy between this poll and other polls boils down to the independents. According to this poll, the Registered Undeclared voters support Coakley over Brown 48-42. This number is wildly out of line with the recent polls released by Rasmussen and PPP, both of which show Brown leading handily with independents, winning at least 60% of their votes (Coakley hangs at between around 20% and 30% of independents). If, using all the other weighting methodologies of the Globe poll, you change the undeclared levels of support to 61% for Brown and 31% for Coakley (her highest number in the most recent polls), you come up with a 47-44 lead for Brown.
Yeah, but Rasmussen is Satan's Pollster.
Posted by: Ace at
10:54 AM
| Comments (22)
Post contains 175 words, total size 1 kb.
Posted by: Old Sailor at January 10, 2010 11:05 AM (/Ft4q)
Posted by: lincolntf at January 10, 2010 11:07 AM (rwlcW)
Posted by: BJ Clinton at January 10, 2010 11:09 AM (VuLos)
Posted by: Moron#127354 at January 10, 2010 11:10 AM (LKkE8)
The reason why this is a problem is because Independents make up over 50% of the voting registration.
Posted by: enoxo at January 10, 2010 11:14 AM (YFjad)
The UNH polling service that did this poll is terrible. They use students to cold call people and have an agenda.
Posted by: American Barbarian at January 10, 2010 11:18 AM (GM03c)
This is a special election. Undeclared turnout may be lower than usual. Or not. Nobody will really know until election day - though partisans are more likely to turn out for off-season, off-year special elections than nonpartisans.
Differing turnout models = wildly inconsistent polling.
Posted by: cinyc at January 10, 2010 11:18 AM (qPFNG)
Special election is nine days away, and that still enough time for quite a bit to happen.
Posted by: looking closely at January 10, 2010 11:22 AM (9CRJf)
Special election is nine days away, and that still enough time for quite a bit to happen.
Posted by: looking closely at January 10, 2010 03:22 PM (9CRJf)
I seem to recall the same being said of a GOP win in New Jersey.
Posted by: Mary Beth at January 10, 2010 11:39 AM (JPEqm)
There's just no way, NO WAY, that the Globe would publish faulty polls that would keep conservatives from voting. Why, they'd just as soon pick our candidates.
No way, I tell you.
Posted by: Avg American at January 10, 2010 11:58 AM (d7Px0)
Posted by: Stinky Beaumont at January 10, 2010 12:02 PM (d7Px0)
Posted by: elloit m at January 10, 2010 12:22 PM (rHQQw)
Some citizens' group needs to organize "fair voting volunteers" that will patrol polling places with video cameras.
They have those - they are called election judges. Want to combat
voter fraud. Want to make sure elections don't get stolen. Volt. to be
an election judge. Its not glorious work. You go through several hours
of training, show up on election day at 4 or 5 a.m., your there for 12
hours and, for the most part, you don't get paid. Or, on the other
hand, you can complain about ACORN and the dems. Your choice. If
interested, contact your local Republican party and volunteer. And let
them know, you will go to any precient, not just your own.
Sure but do they hang out on the sidewalk and or street corner?
Posted by: elloit m at January 10, 2010 12:42 PM (rHQQw)
Posted by: andycanuck at January 10, 2010 01:36 PM (2qU2d)
Posted by: GarandFan at January 10, 2010 01:45 PM (ZQBnQ)
Posted by: CoolCzech at January 10, 2010 02:39 PM (QECjC)
Posted by: turfmann at January 10, 2010 04:38 PM (SgGTT)
Posted by: ParisParamus at January 10, 2010 06:43 PM (Hv1Cx)
The Globe is just a dust-up for when ACORN moves in with their magical recount method of finding "missing" votes to elect Coakley.
Stealing elections is what Democrats do and the Globe is running cover for the operation.
Posted by: LogicalUS at January 10, 2010 07:36 PM (Eem1Z)
Posted by: Harry Reid at January 11, 2010 04:49 AM (Ki7fm)
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Rasmussen is Satan's pollster. PPP is Moloch. Pay no attention to them.
Posted by: AD at January 10, 2010 11:05 AM (INZCg)