July 27, 2011
— Gabriel Malor Drew's right, below, about a lot of things. He's right that it would be nice to see cuts in the $100+ billion range and I'd like to see them this year. He's right that the out year cuts are iffy and therefore not reliable. He's right that the debt ceiling is absolutely going to be raised. And so he's absolutely wrong to oppose Boehner's plan. A vote against Boehner's plan is a vote for Reid's plan.
I know that's hard to hear, but it's the truth. Drew writes a lot of things below. What he doesn't write is how opposing Boehner is going to translate into a victory for conservatives rather than a victory for Obama. Even Drew admits that Cut, Cap, and Balance isn't happening while Democrats control the Senate (although he strangely then takes Boehner to task for not cutting as much as the Ryan budget, which also got shot down by the Democrats in the Senate). So what's the alternative?
There seems to be two trains of thought on an alternative. The first, is to claim that failing to raise the debt ceiling won't be that bad. These folks admit some checks will go out, some won't, but it won't be that bad. They concede the U.S. AAA rating will be lost, but that'll be okay too because it's not like the world has anywhere else to borrow money from. Let's just grant their premise for the sake of argument. Okay, supposing that it turns out that running into the debt ceiling doesn't cause much of a problem, why in the world do you believe that this result is going to lead to Cut, Cap, & Balance and the Balanced Budget Amendment? What makes you think that having had a thorough demonstration that federal spending isn't in crisis, America will decide that the conservative goal of cutting federal spending is the way to go? The logic fails.
Second, there are those who admit that the loss of the AAA rating and disruption in federal spending will be a bad thing for the economy. That it will have substantial negative impact on people's lives, not just in the short-term, but in the long-term as the U.S. has to earn back its AAA rating. That by failing to pay its bills on time, the U.S. will bring down the economy its been sucking dry through taxes. States, expecting federal transfers, will find themselves without expected moneys. Federal vendors and contractors, expecting payment for services rendered, will also find themselves unpaid for a time. Hospitals, expecting federal reimbursements, will go unreimbursed for a time. Federal employees, expecting their paychecks, will likely receive IOUs. Securities holders, expecting to cash out when their securities mature, will likely get nothing for a time. And many of these unpaid obligations will accrue interest for as long as there is a backlog.
This second group of folks who don't mind pushing past the debt ceiling deadline are not evil. They recognize that this is going to hurt a lot of people. They're just cynical enough to believe that by hurting so many people, Obama and the Democrats can be leveraged into agreeing to conservative demands. That the pain and suffering will lead to Cut, Cap, and Balance and the Balanced Budget Amendment; in other words, a greater good.
In this horrifying-but-with-a-happy-ending scenario, the Republicans somehow manage to escape blame for the economic catastrophe. Experience tells us that this happy ending will never happen. Republicans will face just as much blame as Democrats.
Here's the kicker. Everyone in D.C. knows that failing to raise the debt limit is to be avoided, precisely because of the harms I've described. Which means that in the next five days either some version of a Boehner plan or some version of a Reid plan is going to pass. And, notwithstanding his veto threats, the President will sign the first one to reach his desk. Now why do you want that to be the Reid plan?
The Reid plan is a victory for Democrats. It includes a gigantic debt ceiling increase, which will take this issue out of play for the election season. It includes over a trillion dollars in imaginary cuts from Iraq and Afghanistan spending that is already winding down.
The Boehner plan is a victory, a small victory I admit, for Republicans. There's a small debt ceiling increase now and we've set the terms of debate come the spring when Obama has to face this issue all over again. It guarantees a vote on the Balanced Budget Amendment before the end of the year, giving us time to convince the public to convince their Senators to vote for it. It contains no tax hikes, a feature of Reid's plan too, but only because Boehner absolutely won on that point. And finally, it will hopefully have more cuts after Boehner re-works it today, but whatever the final numbers it will have cuts that are real and not imaginary like Reid's.
I want us to win. And I recognize that we're never going to get the big win on the Balanced Budget Amendment while we only hold one half of one third of the federal government. I want us to win today so we can beat the stuffing out of Obama and the Democrats on Election Day.
There are two options on the table and only two options on the table. One is okay, but not great. The other is downright bad. Pick one. But don't pretend that if you refuse to choose, you're not responsible for the outcome. At the end, it will be one or the other. Boehner or Reid. Pick one.
Posted by: Gabriel Malor at
09:01 AM
| Comments (244)
Post contains 964 words, total size 5 kb.
Posted by: Dave C at July 27, 2011 08:31 AM (idSAM)
Posted by: Arlo Guthrie at July 27, 2011 08:31 AM (1+CnU)
Posted by: Dave C at July 27, 2011 08:31 AM (idSAM)
So the fuck what?
So they get tossed out in 2012? Is that a bad thing?
You Pollyannas need to understand that the numbers do not lie. The economy is grinding to a halt already. Do you think that borrowing more is going to help in the long run? Stop looking at the process and start focussing on the reality of a budget that cannot be sustained.
Posted by: CharlieBrown'sDildo (NJConservative) at July 27, 2011 08:31 AM (LH6ir)
Posted by: Ben at July 27, 2011 08:32 AM (wuv1c)
Either Boners plan passes and we get downgraded and its blamed on Republicans (but really those unreasonable tea partiers) or Reids plan passes and we get downgraded and its blamed on Republicans (but really those unreasonable teapartiers).
Who gives a shit? These fuckers aren't serious people.
None of this shit matters. We're well and truly fucked. I'm all for some spite votes.
Posted by: Honey Badger at July 27, 2011 08:32 AM (H0dXA)
Posted by: guess who? at July 27, 2011 08:32 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: KISS at July 27, 2011 08:32 AM (T6ZSK)
Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at July 27, 2011 08:35 AM (bxiXv)
We're circling the drain. And none of the plans that actually address the multi-trillion dollar elephant in the room (SS& the Medi-s) will have a chance in hell of passing until the Republicans are in charge of all three branches of gov't. And the odds are that even if they do win control of it all, they'll still bollocks it up.
So sure, I'll pick the plan that hurts JEF and his fellow unicorn dream world dwellers.
Posted by: rockhead at July 27, 2011 08:39 AM (ZMHGo)
It doesn't matter which one. Neither one will stave off the DOOM. You project DOOM for forcing the issue. DOOM is upon us if we don't. I don't project forward that we have until 2013 to start seriously addressing this. We will not have, in the comming months, more leverage over the budgeting process than we have now. This is are one big shot. Do something that might help or give up and write a blank check. But this is the scenario you would have me buy into.
We have cancer and 6 months before it kills us and the choices for treatment presented are
1. Bandaids
2. Alkaseltzer
Your telling me every vote against Bandaids is one for Alkaseltzer.
I'm asking you. Why should I give a F*? It literally doesn't matter which one wins.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose at July 27, 2011 08:39 AM (0q2P7)
Ripley: God damn it, that's not all! 'Cause if one of those things gets down here then that will be all! And all this, this bullshit that you think is so important, you can just kiss all that goodbye!
Gabe, many of us feel like Ripley in the above scene. ALL the stuff you're talking about, all this political Repubs vs. Dems stuff you seem to worry about...this bullshit...strikes many of us as simply insane. Our country is fucked. I mean, really, really fucked. The day of judgement is nearly here, but every second we put off dealing with it, the worse the eventual impact.
Are the American people as a whole ready to deal with this reality? No. That's why it's important that one side keep speaking the truth, over and over and over again, and more important, in Glenn Reynolds' words, act like it's a crisis. Because it is. Cutting deals achieves nothing. Put me in the camp that thinks it was better to elect Obama than McCain. Had McCain become President he would gotten us to the exact same place, but a bit more slowly, thus alerting fewer people as to what's coming. Who seriously thinks the Tea Party would be as active and effective if McCain had been elected? I certainly don't.
We need to present a consistent front and keep saying, "We're screwed, and we have to take extreme measures RIGHT NOW to save what we can." Does that lose us the next set of elections? Quite possibly. Maybe it loses us the the next round of them after that. But we require the credibility when the time comes--and it's coming soon--that when people REALLY get how disastrous things are and finally start looking for somebody to REALLY do something about it, somebody is standing ready to assume that role. If the Republican party won't step up to the plate, it must be abandoned and a serious third party started.
I will not vote for Romney, or anyone of that stripe. I fully believe we'd be better in the long run reelecting a neutered Obama than with another Republican who's afraid to do jack shit because then they might not win the next election. You're saying that barring a compromise, the Republicans will get some of the blame, maybe a whole lot of it, if things start hitting the fan now. SO WHAT? They deserve a lot of the blame. It's time to start making the Democrats completely and utterly own the imminent implosion, because if they don't, then the Republicans will own it as well, and then who do we turn to?
Time to stand and fight, and damn the torpedoes.
Posted by: Ken Begg at July 27, 2011 08:59 AM (0pNdu)
I'm not spiteful - I'm ready for the medicine.
Posted by: sithkhan at July 27, 2011 09:02 AM (DmYZU)
Posted by: Boxy Brown at July 27, 2011 09:03 AM (Y4Fu0)
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 27, 2011 09:05 AM (jx2j9)
Someone remind me how the US got in this position in the first place?
Posted by: Waterhouse at July 27, 2011 09:06 AM (2sn+p)
Posted by: curious at July 27, 2011 09:07 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at July 27, 2011 09:07 AM (FkKjr)
Posted by: BumperStickerist at July 27, 2011 09:07 AM (h6mPj)
re-do it
the aug 2nd is not written in stone
better to keep working than shoot yourself in the foot
1 billion is pathetic.
re-enter cut cap and balance witha new house bill# and send it back
Posted by: leperous at July 27, 2011 09:07 AM (Q6qGS)
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 27, 2011 09:08 AM (jx2j9)
At this point I'm giving up any hope of getting any meaningful cuts. I just hope they'll work it so they run out of money and have to face this issue again before the election and it robs the destroyer in chief of a second term. But I don't have a lot of faith in that. Maybe it's time to embrace the collapse and plan for the reconstruction.
Posted by: Ms Choksondik at July 27, 2011 09:08 AM (sVk8z)
Posted by: Merovign, Dark Lord of the Sith at July 27, 2011 09:08 AM (bxiXv)
Posted by: cardboard bear at July 27, 2011 09:09 AM (ePB3J)
That is a rather interesting definition of victory. $1B out of $1.7T. To paraphrase Phyrrus of Epirus;
one more such victory would utterly undo our nation
Posted by: 18-1 at July 27, 2011 09:10 AM (7BU4a)
maybe this time ask Paul Ryan to be involved?
saw chuckie in a democratic press conference and I want to see that clip again, it was either CNN or CNBC but what he started to say, evoking the violent imagery in a movie scene and talking about "freshman" got the network so upset they said nothing and cut away to a new topic. As an ordinary person, it felt threatening.
Posted by: curious at July 27, 2011 09:10 AM (k1rwm)
This post is what is called a hard sell.
And like all hard sells, it reeks of desperation and hysteria.
Posted by: Soothsayer at July 27, 2011 09:10 AM (sqkOB)
Posted by: Waterhouse at July 27, 2011 01:06 PM (2sn+p)
Can't we talk about this after the 2012 election?
Posted by: The RNC at July 27, 2011 09:11 AM (7BU4a)
Why can we not have some modest actual reductions,i.e. we spend less this year than we did last year as part of a deal to extend the debt limit?
Is such a thing truly impossible?
Posted by: A Balrog of Morgoth at July 27, 2011 09:11 AM (agD4m)
Posted by: BumperStickerist at July 27, 2011 09:11 AM (h6mPj)
Posted by: Alex #11 at July 27, 2011 09:11 AM (CK2MK)
A vote against rape is a vote for murder.
Right. You are today's king of the False Dilemma. Long live the king.
Posted by: krakatoa at July 27, 2011 09:11 AM (bbJJG)
For the record, I am in favor of making a deal rather than letting this opportunity slip through our fingers without any sort of gain.
Posted by: Soothsayer at July 27, 2011 09:11 AM (sqkOB)
I am sick to death of "small victories" that ultimately are meaningless. If we cannot stop the leaks, then there is no point in trying to save the ship. Let it sink, and build a new one.
Posted by: Sgt. York at July 27, 2011 09:12 AM (avDul)
I fear we can't suffer any more small victories lest we'll soon be bleed to death.
Remember:
Medicare Part D-Prescription Drug benefit was a small victory--huzzah! we win a few more senior votes!
No Child Left Behind was a small victory--huzzah! soccer moms will love us!
Letting the Senate vote on 0bamacare so they could all go home for Christmas was a small victory--huzzah! we'll force a vote on the debt ceiling in March!
Getting $100 $67 $30 $.5 billion of cuts in year one was a small victory--huzzah! we took what we could get and we got some cuts, right?!!
Passing CCB was a small victory--huzzah! we really tried and we always got trophies for trying in the past!!!
Posted by: Jimmuy at July 27, 2011 09:13 AM (W789i)
And like all hard sells, it reeks of desperation and hysteria.
Unlike most hard sells, the desperation and hysteria are warranted, and if anything, being underplayed.
Posted by: MikeTheMoose at July 27, 2011 09:13 AM (0q2P7)
And that uses up an entire year's supply of Floozy's lipstick.
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 27, 2011 09:13 AM (jx2j9)
Someone remind me how the US got in this position in the first place?
Posted by: Waterhouse at July 27, 2011 01:06 PM (2sn+p)
We'll let the dems win this one and get 'em next time. They probably mean well. Plus, the MFM will like us then!
Posted by: Rino McRinoson at July 27, 2011 09:13 AM (sVk8z)
Posted by: chazmartel at July 27, 2011 09:13 AM (wlSqE)
Posted by: Rob in Katy at July 27, 2011 09:13 AM (gdGJ1)
It contains no tax hikes...
Additional debt incurred today is yet more debt that will have to be repaid tomorrow, through taxes.
Tax delayed is not tax denied.
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at July 27, 2011 09:13 AM (EeYDk)
Posted by: Waterhouse at July 27, 2011 01:06 PM (2sn+p)
It was those bastard purists. Because they didn't support good Republicans like Chafee and Specter, the Democrats were able to unilaterally impose massive spending increases for the past forty years. Those realistic politicos in the GOP sure weren't complicit in this.
If only Mitch McConnell were majority leader. He'd be standing on the banks of the Potomac, sword raised, pledging to drive 'those Dem bastards' into the sea. He truly is fearsome when roused.
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at July 27, 2011 09:13 AM (FkKjr)
Harry Reid doesn't even deserve to be in the Senate. Oh, right, my bad.
Posted by: Sharron Angle at July 27, 2011 09:14 AM (f8XyF)
1. What do you think are the chances of that happening if we pass Boehner's bill?
2. If we pass Boehner's bill and the ratings houses downgrade us anyway, wouldn't that put the blame squarely on Republicans?
I've given Boehner the benefit of the doubt up until now but I'm concerned that this is a severe strategic blunder.
Posted by: Caiwyn at July 27, 2011 09:15 AM (ttktr)
Same old same old.
Then:
"We gotta take what we can get on this continuing resolution. The real fight's going to be the debt ceiling."
Now:
"We gotta take what we can get with this debt ceiling. The real fight's going to be the 2012 election because we need the Senate and the House."
Two years from now:
"We gotta take what we can get with this budget. The real fight's going to be the 2014 election because we need 60 Senators to break the filibuster."
Repeat ad infinitum.
Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at July 27, 2011 09:15 AM (JxMoP)
Of course, Gabe does nothing to defend his asinine position in the comments.
Fucking chickenshit.
THis issue goes beyond fucking political parties. We are at the cusp of an existential crisis for the nation, and all some people can think about is coddling the destroyers to make it through to next year.
A bunch of fucking capos, the lot of them.
Posted by: Harry Mudd at July 27, 2011 09:15 AM (UaxA0)
Posted by: Paul at July 27, 2011 09:15 AM (DsHk0)
Posted by: WalrusRex at July 27, 2011 09:15 AM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: Oldsailor's poet at July 27, 2011 09:15 AM (ZDUD4)
Posted by: crankytrex at July 27, 2011 09:16 AM (08O0O)
What makes you think a complete cave will help us in 2012?
And more to the point, what makes you think the victorious Republican establishment will do any more about the issue then they did in 2004-6?
Posted by: 18-1 at July 27, 2011 09:16 AM (7BU4a)
Posted by: Vic at July 27, 2011 09:16 AM (M9Ie6)
Repeat ad infinitum.
Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at July 27, 2011 01:15 PM (JxMoP)
Well, until the collapse, at which point people will be able to accurately say that both parties were at fault.
Posted by: Bevel Lemelisk at July 27, 2011 09:16 AM (FkKjr)
Posted by: Blog President Ace O'Spada at July 27, 2011 09:17 AM (nj1bB)
Is there any way anything bad won't be blamed on the republicans and the tea party?
If BO is running around telling everyone not to worry, we're not defaulting, then maybe the republicans should acknowledge this publicly.
Posted by: curious at July 27, 2011 09:17 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 27, 2011 09:17 AM (o2lIv)
Posted by: Blog President Ace O'Spada at July 27, 2011 09:18 AM (nj1bB)
Posted by: Cap at July 27, 2011 09:18 AM (136wp)
Posted by: Bob Saget has not been banned yet at July 27, 2011 09:18 AM (NLWij)
Posted by: someguy at July 27, 2011 09:18 AM (iIQ0a)
Posted by: Blog President Ace O'Spada
You're showing a lotta leg. Thank you.
(I think I saw a little bush, hee hee.)
Posted by: Soothsayer at July 27, 2011 09:19 AM (sqkOB)
I used to try to argue with people when they claim that both parties are equally responsible for our current mess. I would bring up Fannie and Freddie and Dowd and Bawney Frank and all that, try to make the case that while both parties weren't helping, the Dems were doing much more to screw us over.
I'm tired of making that argument. They're both equally guilty.
Posted by: chazmartel at July 27, 2011 09:19 AM (wlSqE)
Posted by: Klageorgen Donikon at July 27, 2011 09:19 AM (48wze)
You're right, we should elect one of the weak candidates from the field of weak candidates rather than allowing Obama to own his mess for another four years. You realize Republicans will have major victories in Congress in '12, right? Let the inevitable incoming Republican Congress send up one good bill after another and watch the President Obama veto them all to the point of losing all public support.
After all, Bill Clinton's second term brought us balanced budgets and welfare reform, as well as Kosovo. And I for one would rather have had Clinton's second term than have Bob Dole as president.
I'll take purity and being a "dolt" any day over the repeated compromising of what I know to be right in favor of a "small victory".
Posted by: Sgt. York at July 27, 2011 09:20 AM (avDul)
Make him Speaker and pass his Full Faith & Credit Act (HR 421). Then we work on making him President.
Posted by: Bill at July 27, 2011 09:21 AM (QVQOE)
Sit home and GIVE the election to OBAMA, purity dolts!!!
##########################
So when will we stop being purity dolts? After this one, last compromise?
How many more compromises do we have to take?
Posted by: sithkhan at July 27, 2011 09:21 AM (DmYZU)
Posted by: arhooley at July 27, 2011 09:22 AM (z32d6)
Posted by: Paul at July 27, 2011 09:22 AM (DsHk0)
This.
Posted by: Ken Begg at July 27, 2011 09:22 AM (0pNdu)
Of course both parties are responsible. One party to lie and the other party to be lied to.
Posted by: WalrusRex at July 27, 2011 09:23 AM (Hx5uv)
There's politics and there's reality.
The politics of the situation demands an increase in the debt ceiling to keep the checks going out, to kick the can down the road past the election, and to enable both sides of the debate to point fingers.
But the reality of the situation is that we are talking about enabling $1 trillion in NEW spending, and enabling it immediately after Obama signs whatever the Congress comes up with. And that's the reality that is at odds with the politics...because while people are talking about raising the debt ceiling as something that must be done, that requirement exists so Democrats and Republicans can keep winning elections, not out of some kind of fiscal requirement.
Look...federal debt has long ago passed into creepy territory. The answer here is not to assume more debt and hope a future Congress deals with the spending part. The answer is to stop taking on more debt and deal with the reality of uncontrolled spending. Years of paying attention to the politics of the situation have reduced the choices to just that. Sure, maybe years ago there could have been a better range of choices, but not now.
For that reason, any plan that includes an increase in the debt ceiling is fundamentally unserious.
Posted by: JohnTant at July 27, 2011 09:23 AM (eytER)
Posted by: Lisa Murkowski at July 27, 2011 09:23 AM (FkKjr)
Posted by: BumperStickerist at July 27, 2011 09:23 AM (h6mPj)
Posted by: blaster at July 27, 2011 09:23 AM (Fw2Gg)
Posted by: The Robot Devil at July 27, 2011 09:23 AM (136wp)
Posted by: Paul at July 27, 2011 09:24 AM (DsHk0)
Posted by: rightwingva at July 27, 2011 09:24 AM (pDXql)
BTW taking about crazy (also barf inducing) over at Weasel Zippers they have The Hill's 50 Most Beautiful People on the Hill....#30....wait for it...Lisa MooCowSki.
I am ill.
Posted by: mpfs at July 27, 2011 09:24 AM (iYbLN)
BTW, Rick Perry has 14 inch balls
Posted by: cherry π at July 27, 2011 01:18 PM
Sarah Palin has 28-inch ovaries.
Posted by: arhooley at July 27, 2011 09:24 AM (z32d6)
Know what happens to ordinary people who do this? They're forced to live within their means because - being denied credit - they literally cannot spend money they don't have. In time, after paying their debts and learning from years of not spending money they don't have, they get their credit restored.
Like I said. Let the ship sink, and slowly rebuild a new one.
Posted by: Sgt. York at July 27, 2011 09:25 AM (avDul)
Posted by: Aurvant at July 27, 2011 09:25 AM (m8kZd)
You can't do both. You're one man trying to sit on both sides of the see-saw; if you sit on the right side, the left side goes up, and vice versa.
Posted by: Ken Begg at July 27, 2011 09:25 AM (0pNdu)
Gabe, there has been talk that the ratings houses will downgrade our rating even if the debt ceiling is raised, assuming we don't cut enough to get a real handle on our debt.
----------
Gabe has more than conveniently continued to ignore this. He keeps pretending that if the Boehner plan passes that somehow the AAA rating will remain, despite all of the evidence to the contrary. He does this so he can continue to pretend that a failure to the raise the debt ceiling will be a catastrophe that could have been avoided had we only been reasonable. If he admits that the credit rating is shot either way, it takes away a large portion of his argument.
Furthermore, Gabe continues to wishcast. Despite what the President and Reid have said, he's still pretending that they didn't actually say they wouldn't vote for Boehner's plan. He pretends that it's the only legit option while totally missing the fact that the Senate Majority leader has declared it DOA. It's hilarious to me that CCB is dead and buried, but a bill that is declared DOA, now THAT has promise. Exactly how does one come to this conclusion?
Anyway, Gabe yet again fails all over himself throughout this entire thing. He mis-represents those of us who would rather hit the ceiling then pass this plan.
Let me spell it out for you, Gabe. We would rather hit the ceiling because we believe passing this Boehner plan WILL ULTIMATELY BE MORE HARMFUL TO THE ECONOMY, FREEDOM, AND THIS ENTIRE CIVIL SOCIETY THAN NOT RAISING THE CEILING WOULD. Got it?
And, finally, just like his last post he continues to pretend that Republicans aren't going to get the blame anyway. Tell me, Gabe, when Moody's downgrades the AAA rating after the Boehner plan passes, who do you think gets the blame then big guy? You think the media is going to be honest all of a sudden?
Posted by: Rich at July 27, 2011 09:25 AM (wnGI4)
These are separate and distinct. We will probably lose our AAA irrespective, since no solution on the table addresses our fundamental fiscal issues.
They are NOT my favorite people, but the agencies aren't some rube from middle-America, Beltway politician, MSM Democrat Party acolyte or jerk who can be fooled by political magic tricks. They look at the numbers and liquidity. And they have had a few years to get fairly good at it (MBS aside). SO my guess is we lose that rating. In fact, the market is already pricing it in.
As for a disruption in spending we lose and will get equal blame with Democrats. That's stupid, and anyone thinking otherwise either has poorly grounded explanations or is not realistic about exactly what is within the realm of possibilities.
Posted by: Marcus at July 27, 2011 09:26 AM (3nuxw)
And what happened to the two specters of credit downgrading? We've been talking for weeks about these. The first is the official ratings downgrade. The second one is just as dangerous, because it's even more real. China and PIMCO are already shedding our debt.
And neither of these plans seems to meet the requirements set by the ratings agencies. This is a false choice, and presents nothing new from your last post.
I get that you don't like the lack of acceptance. If this situation was so easy that a blog post could provoke understanding and consensus, it would have happened.
What can be achieved politically cannot begin to satisfy what MUST be done fiscally. This is like the monster movie where the character (victim) has a gun and realizes that the monster is immune to bullets but can be drowned in blood or some other precious commodity. These people are coasting until the austerity owrd can be used and can say that we as a nation are forced to do this. No useful solution will be employed until then.
Posted by: Blue Hen at July 27, 2011 09:26 AM (326rv)
Does that mean that next years budget will be 1 billion less than total fed spending in 2011?
They are not even talking about cuts, they are talking about reductions in a spending increase.
And that is the problem. They are not reducing spending at all, they are just reducing the rate of increase and that just isn't good enough.
Posted by: Jack at July 27, 2011 09:26 AM (8IAHO)
I don't. I think its possible it might be painful as hell. I think it will be more painful for more people and more prolonged if we go with one of these plans.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at July 27, 2011 09:26 AM (mf8Ua)
Posted by: Ben at July 27, 2011 12:32 PM
Actually it doesn't. Reid simply included the cuts to the spending on the wars which had already been factored in. If Boehner did the same thing his plan would have more cuts. More smoke blown up our a$$es by Reid.
Posted by: Deanna at July 27, 2011 09:26 AM (jLi/I)
They should bring CCB to the floor of the House EVERY SINGLE DAY for a vote. EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. Pass it EVERY. SINGLE. DAY. Send it to the Senate EVERY. SINGLE. DAY.
As long as political theater is our only guaranteed win, this makes plenty of sense.
Posted by: arhooley at July 27, 2011 09:26 AM (z32d6)
Posted by: Vashta.Nerada at July 27, 2011 09:27 AM (jqLfq)
Posted by: Waterhouse at July 27, 2011 01:06 PM (2sn+p)
Well don't blame me. I was watching American Idol.
Posted by: Huge proportion of the 52% at July 27, 2011 09:27 AM (Hx5uv)
It's the same old story. Just go ahead and cave because while our plan sucks the Democrats plan really sucks so go ahead and bend over and I'll toss in a whole billion for some lube this time.
No! If we are going to be screwed again then we should go down fighting.
P.S. I wonder how you Gabe would answer the question this article at RedState poses?
http://tinyurl.com/3g2l5mw
Do you even have one?
Posted by: GhostShip at July 27, 2011 09:27 AM (sbaXF)
Posted by: Hussein the Plumber at July 27, 2011 09:27 AM (jx2j9)
Posted by: Erick Egomaniac Erickson at July 27, 2011 09:28 AM (kOcbK)
As of now, they seem to believe that Boehner is truly going to fix this and make it a better bill. The RSC controversy didn't help the CCB only side, either. But if Boehner doesn't actually fix it, he'll lose those votes.
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 27, 2011 09:28 AM (o2lIv)
This is ridiculous.
At what point do we say enough is enough? At what point do we stop the bleeding in this country? We've run up the credit card bill to the tune of 14 trillion dollars, and the only thing that will save the economy is to increase our credit card limit to 16.5 trillion? I thought we mocked Biden here when he said you have to spend money to save money.
The. spending. has. to. stop.
The President is Amy Winehouse. And she wants heroin and cocaine and pills and meth and ketamine. Boehner's response is "Well, that would be irresponsible, but we Republicans will give you all the pills you want." The dem response is "Those mean Republicans, trying to keep you from your fun. We're fair. We'll give you all the heroin you want instead."
The country is a junkie for spending, and it's going to die. Your just quibling over the method it uses to OD.
Posted by: Palandine at July 27, 2011 09:28 AM (g7D8V)
we only hold one half of one third of the federal government
Another, less pussy-whipped way to look at it: By my count, they hold 1/2 of the federal government, barely.
The Supreme Court is largely irrelevant (or should be, in this instance) - if anything, it's split/GOP-controlled. That's 1/3 right there that's neutral.
The House is ours. (1/6)
The Senate is barely theirs, and could be won over if we even fucking tried *ahem-CCB-ahem*. (1/6)
The President is theirs (2/6)
Posted by: chazmartel at July 27, 2011 09:28 AM (wlSqE)
Posted by: rightwingva at July 27, 2011 09:28 AM (pDXql)
Partial government shutdown ¹ end of the world.
Default on debt = financial catastrophe.
Law degree ¹ knowledge of economics or anything else, except law..
The country will easily cope with a Federal Government shutdown, but not with an actual default.
A genuine default would raise interest rates drastically and that would be the beginning of end. Even if total debt remained constant or actually started to decrease, government bonds mature and roll over in cohorts, and would necessarily have to be replaced with bonds paying much higher interest rates.
A government shutdown should be on the table, with a full political strategy and public relations operation to put it onto the Democrats, especially the highly-visible, somewhat unstable Obama. Freeze the target and personalize it. WeÂ’ve seem what a government shutdown looks like before, in the 1990s - it was never a complete shutdown and life went on just fine. The only problem was the GOP getting blamed for it by Slick Willy, when the blame properly belonged with President Clinton himself. Fix the blame thing and do it. When Obama shuts down the government heÂ’ll get stuck with it, because heÂ’s no Bill Clinton. The silly inflexible bastard is already laying the groundwork for getting the blame with his press conferences and clumsy lying.
The Congressional Democrats are not going to allow a default. They believe that they can only get elected by spending money. If it becomes difficult or impossible for the government to borrow new money because of sky-high interest rates, then there will be a sharp contraction in the political bribery funds that they count on.
Obama can do an end-of-the-world, Shickelgruber-in-the-bunker act if he pleases. Democrats in Congress are not committed to seeing the world burn and will override his veto to save themselves.
Posted by: Wm T Sherman at July 27, 2011 09:29 AM (w41GQ)
No, we don't. US AAA will be lost for solvency reasons, not liquidity ones. Refusing to raise the debt limit doesn't make us any less solvent.
Refusing to raise the debt limit forces an immediate balanced budget on the US sometime in August. If the Democrats are ok with that, great. If they're not, then either they get the House to raise taxes, or they get the House to raise the debt limit. 218 Republicans in the House can charge the Democrats anything those 218 Republicans want, so long those things hurt the Democrats less than does a balanced budget.
See MN budget fight. The Democrats need government spending more than the Republicans do. This is a perfect time to take advantage of that.
Boehner's starting point should be cutting more than the Ryan budget. Then he can bargain. Maybe.
Posted by: Greg Q at July 27, 2011 09:30 AM (/0a60)
Posted by: Socratease at July 27, 2011 09:30 AM (vaIln)
The problem isn't the revenue it's the spending. Oh and regulations that suck the life from the economy.
increased tax rates do not = increased revenue if you drive down GDP
Posted by: Buzzsaw at July 27, 2011 09:30 AM (tf9Ne)
Yes, we have a banana republic. We have a banana republic today!
Posted by: WalrusRex at July 27, 2011 09:30 AM (Hx5uv)
@17 Holy shit, it's Ken Begg!
<Kathy Bates voice> I'm Jabootu's Bad Movie Dimension's number one fan!</Kathy Bates voice>
Posted by: Palandine at July 27, 2011 09:30 AM (g7D8V)
Oh wait- crap.
Posted by: Charlie Crist at July 27, 2011 09:30 AM (zJDIJ)
Posted by: rightwingva at July 27, 2011 09:31 AM (pDXql)
We are blamed. Obama gets 4 more years, comrade.
Posted by: cherry ð at July 27, 2011 01:27 PM (OhYCU)
Why? What makes you think that the American people would ever vote this asshole back into office? Blaming the GOP worked wonderfully in 2010, and it's doing wonders for Obama's poll numbers right now - why would it be any different in 2012, after the economy not only goes over a cliff, but then rapes itself on the way down?
Posted by: chazmartel at July 27, 2011 09:31 AM (wlSqE)
Man those CO, NV and DE Senate seats might sure come in handy about now...
------
So would Charlie Crist and Bob Bennet. Oh wait....that's not what you were going for.
Posted by: Rich at July 27, 2011 09:31 AM (wnGI4)
Oh wait - crap.
Posted by: Carly Fiorina at July 27, 2011 09:31 AM (FkKjr)
Boehner's plan has a fatal flaw. It's $1 billion in cuts next year is less than the $2 billion in cuts Democrats once proposed (along with spending cuts). Pass the Boehner plan as is, and all next year, we will hear how the Democrats wanted to cut the deficit twice as much as Republicans.
Sure, we need a plan (for the kneejerks, we can argue about a ceiling increase but we need a plan), and we are unlikely to get $100 billion or $30 billion in cuts next year. But the first year still needs to exceed $2 billion. A 3% across the board cut gets you $100 billion in savings. Can we not handle a .3% cut across the board?
Posted by: Leland at July 27, 2011 09:31 AM (Q5asM)
we only hold one half of one third of the federal government
Yeah, but in that 1/6 of the government there's a valve they can turn.
"Who run Bartertown?"
Posted by: Wm T Sherman at July 27, 2011 09:32 AM (w41GQ)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at July 27, 2011 09:32 AM (mf8Ua)
But, wait -- what about the published GDP figures? They show modest growth, maybe 2%.
Well, that's because we've borrowed 12% and splurged it to Dem constituencies, for each of the last three years. That counts in published GDP figures.
If the debt ceiling stands, we'll immediately be in the depression on paper that we have been in reality.....but can start to reorganize in a rational way. Borrowing 12% of GDP each year only makes the problem worse.....because you'll be just as screwed up, but have tons more debt.
Posted by: cthulhu at July 27, 2011 09:33 AM (kaalw)
A vote against Boehner's plan is a vote for Reid's plan.
A shame that Reid's plan doubles the cuts that Boehner's does...I'm guessing that Reid's plan increases taxes. Which makes it unpalatable for the usual suspects.
If so, how does voting against Boehner become a vote for Reid?
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at July 27, 2011 09:33 AM (1hM1d)
Posted by: brak at July 27, 2011 09:34 AM (fHhRt)
The country is a junkie for spending, and it's going to die.
They tried to make me go to rehab, I said no, no, no.
Posted by: U.S. Government at July 27, 2011 09:34 AM (z32d6)
Posted by: Empire of Jeff, EXXXTREMIST at July 27, 2011 09:34 AM (lbo6/)
"I know that's hard to hear, but it's the truth. Drew writes a lot of things below. What he doesn't write is how opposing Boehner is going to translate into a victory for conservatives rather than a victory for Obama"
if all you care about is racking up political points for your side, nothing is ever going to change.
i'm not staying in that box anymore, i want real change not a bunch of blithering idiots droning on and on about how great they are. Boehner is nothing, he can be replaced in a heartbeat, all of them can be replaced, none of this has to stay this way, all we have to do is choose to behave differently ourselves, choose to think for ourselves instead of accepting the "wisdom" of the Elites, we own this motherfucker and we change it anytime we want!
Posted by: Shoey at July 27, 2011 09:35 AM (jdOk/)
Math, Gabe.
Think: Basis points.
Downgrade on credit will soon be felt on how much it costs everyone to borrow. Including folks with adjustable rate mortgages, among others. Jump the rates fifty to a hundred basis points - or more - all at once?
...and that's only a part of the negative impact on the economy.
The real problem is, you haven't done the research. You're blowin' smoke, Gabe. The math doesn't care about your ideology, left, right or center. Except for placing blame and killing one another over it, ideology no longer matters. The reality is that we're screwed. Doomed, as the saying goes. All we can realistically do now is to limit the chaos and destruction. We can no longer prevent it. ...unless you still believe in Santa Claus and the Tooth Fairy, that is.
Start reading The Market Ticker. Yeah, mebbe you think that Denninger might be a jerk, but he often does the math for you. He's making more sense than the people you've been listening to, anyway.
Posted by: Warren Bonesteel at July 27, 2011 09:35 AM (E7Z1r)
We are blamed. Obama gets 4 more years, comrade.
-----
Enough of this. Instead of just repeating it over and over, give me a scenario in which the AAA rating isn't lost and/or the Rs don't get the blame. Go ahead.
Posted by: Rich at July 27, 2011 09:36 AM (wnGI4)
Before reading the comments, two responses:
Okay, supposing that it turns out that running into the debt ceiling doesn't cause much of a problem, why in the world do you believe that this result is going to lead to Cut, Cap, & Balance and the Balanced Budget Amendment?
If we keep and adhere to the current debt limit, that is a much greater victory than CC&B. We will have cut, now, without counting on hypothetical vicotry of a bba.
This second group of folks who don't mind pushing past the debt ceiling deadline are not evil. They recognize that this is going to hurt a lot of people. They're just cynical enough to believe that by hurting so many people, Obama and the Democrats can be leveraged into agreeing to conservative demands
No, what they believe is that pain is inevitable short of massive change in our politicians priorities, which this debate proves is unlikely, and therefore it is better to have the slightly lesser pain now than kick it down the road, let it gain momentum, and crush our children.
This is an easy issue for people to understand. Except for those willing to kill the host to fatten their bellies now, people understand not borrowing more to cover operating expenses. We should have all the leverage here, and should be getting something huge out of this. Repeal Obamacare, close some cabinet level departments, and at the least make the f'ers come begging again next Summer.
Posted by: Some says at July 27, 2011 09:36 AM (vI8R6)
This is the sort of ZOMFG, WE HAVE TO DO SOMETHING NOWNOWNOW that gave us TARP. How'd that work out?
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at July 27, 2011 09:36 AM (1hM1d)
--And this Boehner vs Reid BS isn't? Seriously? wow.
Posted by: rightwingva at July 27, 2011 01:31 PM
Of course it is. That's what I'm saying.
Posted by: arhooley at July 27, 2011 09:36 AM (z32d6)
Like I said. Let the ship sink, and slowly rebuild a new one.
But actually defaulting means our debt will jump. How will we climb out of that hole? Do we also know with great certainty that there's something better on the other side? We tried this before with our elections and we still don't have another Reagan. This is about making a choice between two bad options and deciding which is worse, between managed decline or hitting reset.
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 27, 2011 09:36 AM (o2lIv)
@17 Holy shit, it's Ken Begg! <Kathy Bates voice> I'm Jabootu's Bad Movie Dimension's number one fan!</Kathy Bates voice>
Hey, what're you doing with that sledge hammer?
Posted by: Ken Begg at July 27, 2011 09:37 AM (0pNdu)
We can all be millionaires for a few days! Vote Democrat, get a million dollar check!
Posted by: WalrusRex at July 27, 2011 09:37 AM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: Paul at July 27, 2011 01:22 PM (DsHk0)
I'm kinda leaning towards Gabe on this one. Lets bring the plane down on the river and NOT in the side of a building. Minimize the deaths.
Posted by: Max Power at July 27, 2011 09:37 AM (q177U)
We are blamed. Obama gets 4 more years, comrade.
Posted by: cherry ð
Option 4: We raise the debt limit and the credit rating is downgraded because we refused to even attempt to deal with our debt.
We are blamed because our plan is the one on the table and we're dealing with the ssame MFM as in option #3. Obama gets four more years tovariche.
Option 5: We raise the debt limit and the official credit rating is left alone, but the trend to shed and/or avoid US debt continues, with the same result as #3 and 4.
Notice how Gabe and his ilk still refuse to be honest enough to admit this? The lying and fear mongering isn't occurring only in DC.
Posted by: Blue Hen at July 27, 2011 09:38 AM (326rv)
Posted by: The Jug Eared Media at July 27, 2011 09:39 AM (WCurc)
A solid majority of Americans is against raising the debt ceiling, and there is no reason- zero, none, nada- to cave on this. If these Repub fucksticks could just get there messaging in order Obozo's approval ratings would be in the thirties.
And if you disagree with me, then you, sir, are worse than Hitler.
Posted by: ol_dirty_/b/tard at July 27, 2011 09:39 AM (IoUF1)
Posted by: cthulhu at July 27, 2011 09:39 AM (kaalw)
I agree. The GOP needs to take the high road here even if it's a nominal victory at best. In the eyes of the public, we are the adults in the room.
That said, once we take the Senate (and I am sure the WH) who's to say that we can reopen this whole can of worms again and get what we want... real deficit discipline!!!!!!
In other words, small victory with a short field punt. Pin them inside the 5 yard line.... then sack 'em for a safety -- or better yet Pick-6.
So...
option 1: Go for it on 4th and 20 from the 40..... OR...
option 2: Pin them within the 5yard line and defensive score?
I say pin them back.
Posted by: GabeS at July 27, 2011 09:39 AM (ZaNql)
Posted by: Paul
When asked by weekends on All Things Considered host Guy Raz about changes within the House Republican caucus, Mike Castle noted, "There was a great reduction in moderate Republicans, even in the time when I was there."
Castle says he feels that the rank decimation of moderates in the House has caused polarization and made compromise a dirty word.
NPR 7/17/2011
Yes, if we but had Mike Castle's steely-eyed determination in our Senate caucus, all would be right.....
Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at July 27, 2011 09:40 AM (EeYDk)
I'm kinda leaning towards Gabe on this one. Lets bring the plane down on the river and NOT in the side of a building. Minimize the deaths.
------
Oy, people out there still with this idea that there isn't going to be massive pain.
Posted by: Rich at July 27, 2011 09:40 AM (wnGI4)
Thread winner
Posted by: cherry π at July 27, 2011 01:36 PM (OhYCU)
My favorite political (not economic) outcome would be that the debt ceiling not be raised and "Blank Check" Obama Lone Rangers additional borrowing citing the fourteenth amendment. If that were to happen, the Democrats would have bought the debt and the deficit for the foreseeable future.
Posted by: WalrusRex at July 27, 2011 09:40 AM (Hx5uv)
Because it's the GOP plan, not the Dem plan. BECAUSE of the name, and the source - GOP in the House.
The APPEARANCE of victory is, in this case, every bit as important as the FACT of victory.
Posted by: Less at July 27, 2011 09:40 AM (PGXeZ)
Posted by: brak at July 27, 2011 09:41 AM (fHhRt)
Posted by: ol_dirty_/b/tard at July 27, 2011 01:39 PM (IoUF1)
Hey!
Posted by: A. Hilter at July 27, 2011 09:41 AM (136wp)
Posted by: opinionator at July 27, 2011 09:41 AM (RE7Vw)
Posted by: BaldNinja at July 27, 2011 09:41 AM (tB1LF)
we only hold one half of one third of the federal government
OK, so in that argument we cannot do anything until we have, what, two thirds of the government? More? Less? How is this an argument to capitulate?
From a more practical standpoint...at a certain point the minority has all the power. For instance, in a situation where a unanimous vote is required, the lone holdout has all the power. So it is in this situation...nothing can be done without the House's acquiesence. You're suggesting throwing away a position of strength because of some moral calculus that because Dems control the Senate and the Presidency that the House must go along?
Very odd.
Posted by: JohnTant at July 27, 2011 09:42 AM (eytER)
1. We save $4B X 14 days = $56B.
2. These guys will scramble to raise it, because their phoney baloney jobs depend on passing out your childrens and grandchildrens piggy banks to lazy worthless slobs and african junk washing researchers.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at July 27, 2011 09:42 AM (mf8Ua)
It is already too late. There is little philosophical difference in the current Democrat and Republican parties. The only thing our fearless, feckless leaders in D.C. can do now is to buy us a little more time to prepare for the inevitable collapse. We have passed the point of no return. We can not pay our debts and hyper inflation will follow the downgrade and interest rate increase
.Believe it or not, some days I don't think I'm cynical enough.
Posted by: Jeffersonian at July 27, 2011 09:42 AM (oZ3AI)
Posted by: Erick Egomaniac Erickson at July 27, 2011 09:42 AM (kOcbK)
I'm kinda leaning towards Gabe on this one. Lets bring the plane down on the river and NOT in the side of a building. Minimize the deaths.
Posted by: Max Power
Shooting atropine into someone or something without bothering to stop the bleeding or heal the wounds isn't minimizing anything. It merely prolongs it. Ask the PIIGS. They are simply farther along in the cycle than we are
Hey Gabe, look at Italy for pity's sake. They are ALLOWED to accrue more debt. They don't have a ceiling, and they don't have republicans hiding under desks. But they cancelled their August bond sale. Because they have exceeded the PRACTICAL debt ceiling. No one is interested in buying their debt at a rate that they can offer. That's less painful how?
Posted by: Blue Hen at July 27, 2011 09:42 AM (6rX0K)
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 27, 2011 01:36 PM (o2lIv)
So, our debt will jump from unpayable to beyond unpayable. So what. Might as well hit reset now and start the long, painful rebuilding process sooner rather than later.
Posted by: chazmartel at July 27, 2011 09:42 AM (wlSqE)
We'll be FORCED to...as opposed to all this idiotic bickering about how we control the decline. It'll be drastic, and it will hurt, but it won't hurt much worse than the Great Recession we're suffering through now. It'll hurt, but it's better to claw our way slowly out of the quicksand than continually coming up with ways to slow the sinking.
Posted by: Sgt. York at July 27, 2011 09:42 AM (avDul)
Posted by: KISS at July 27, 2011 12:32 PM (T6ZSK)
WHAT? None of these plans are cuts from current levels?
Let's just go with plan phoenix, then.
Posted by: Some says at July 27, 2011 09:42 AM (vI8R6)
So...
option 1: Go for it on 4th and 20 from the 40..... OR...
option 2: Pin them within the 5yard line and defensive score?
I say pin them back.
------
Yes, because a billion in reduced growth (that's right, not cuts, slower growth) is really going to pin them back. No clue how the dems can recover from such a blow.
Posted by: Rich at July 27, 2011 09:43 AM (wnGI4)
therefore it is better to have the slightly lesser pain now than kick it down the road, let it gain momentum, and crush our children
Word.
And I don't even have children. But I think of my cousins' kids, and the kids of my friends, and I think I've lived to be almost 50 and I'll had an easier life then these youngsters will ever know. And that is a rather depressing thought.
This is our great adversary. Unfortunately, we have met the enemy and he is us.
Posted by: I R A Darth Aggie © at July 27, 2011 09:44 AM (1hM1d)
I fear we can't suffer any more small victories lest we'll soon be bleed to death.
Remember:
Medicare Part D-Prescription Drug benefit was a small victory--huzzah! we win a few more senior votes!
No Child Left Behind was a small victory--huzzah! soccer moms will love us!
Letting the Senate vote on 0bamacare so they could all go home for Christmas was a small victory--huzzah! we'll force a vote on the debt ceiling in March!
Getting $100 $67 $30 $.5 billion of cuts in year one was a small victory--huzzah! we took what we could get and we got some cuts, right?!!
Passing CCB was a small victory--huzzah! we really tried and we always got trophies for trying in the past!!!
Posted by: Brian L. at July 27, 2011 09:44 AM (mwctc)
There is only 2 seconds left and we are behind by 5.
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at July 27, 2011 09:45 AM (mf8Ua)
The APPEARANCE of victory is, in this case, every bit as important as the FACT of victory.
-------
Unless, of course, you're actually concerned about the effect these two terrible plans would have on the country. As long as your not worried about that, then yea, rah rah go team etc.
Posted by: Rich at July 27, 2011 09:46 AM (wnGI4)
Posted by: Ben at July 27, 2011 12:32 PM
From the details we actually know, his "plan" is worse. Same with his budget gimmicks. If you throw-out the war "savings", he's already down to $1.2T. A number of those remaining cuts are apparently from the defense budget. So the numbers of both bills are bad at the moment but Reid's are still worse.
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 27, 2011 09:46 AM (o2lIv)
Can our economy wait until 2012 until meaningful steps to debt reduction can be taken? Is that really a rational position to take? Debt already exceeds GDP for the 1st time in our lifetime with even larger debt levels coming in current years, even with Boehner's modest proposed cuts. Baseline spending has been jacked up by $800 billion/yr. We're on the edge here due to the debt levels, not the debt ceiling.
Gabriel says it's either/or situation, yet Congress is not obligated to pass Reid's stinkbill, so let's stop pretending that they do. We're at a serious crossroads right now. Now is not the time to give in to a 'deal' which doesn't substantively reduce our debt which is already about to take us over the falls.
Let America "default" which would force Obama to prioritize spending - exactly what he and the Dems do NOT want to happen. Let Obama defend not sending out Social Security checks in favor of spending $$ on Planned Parenthood or defend his sending out of govt pension checks 4X the size of SS checks sent out to 53 year old federal retirees instead of paying Medicare bills. That's a debate conservatives will win if it comes down to it.
Interest rates would likely rise under a quasi-default, but the flip side to that point is that they've been artificially held lower through Fed actions, which have penalized seniors with low rates on their CD's, seniors who saved and played by the rules. By interfering with the free market, the govt. has penalized savers while rewarding those who took excessive debt.
Posted by: Mook at July 27, 2011 09:46 AM (eP5IM)
Posted by: Socratease at July 27, 2011 09:46 AM (vaIln)
Is that the plan where the German model plane builder designs the new budget?
Posted by: Buzzsaw at July 27, 2011 09:47 AM (tf9Ne)
We are blamed."
Haven't been alive too long, have you?
Doesn't matter what the outcome is...we are blamed regardless. If it's a good outcome, they find some twisted way to take credit (like Clinton did with Newt's balanced budgets).
Posted by: Sgt. York at July 27, 2011 09:47 AM (avDul)
Posted by: t-bird at July 27, 2011 09:47 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: SFGoth at July 27, 2011 09:47 AM (dZ756)
Posted by: phoenixgirl at July 27, 2011 09:48 AM (Cm66w)
Because it's the GOP plan, not the Dem plan. BECAUSE of the name, and the source - GOP in the House.
The APPEARANCE of victory is, in this case, every bit as important as the FACT of victory.
Posted by: Less at July 27, 2011 01:40 PM (PGXeZ)
totally, completely, 100% WRONG!
the TEA Party folks are on to that bullshit and aren't buying it for a minute anymore, what you just described is a perscription for disaster. But it is the exact kind of thinking that goes on in GOP circles and that's why the TEA Party exists.
Posted by: Shoey at July 27, 2011 09:48 AM (jdOk/)
Option D:
"Hey look over there, its a giant purple flying sandwhich!"
(run away and hide)
BTW:
What about somekind of worldwide debt forgiveness? It would also be catastophic, but maybe the "recovery" would come sooner? Right after WWIII.
Posted by: Max Power at July 27, 2011 09:48 AM (q177U)
I suckered you morons into splitting the party and pissing on Boehner.
I suckered you morons into taking charge of the (doomed) economy.
Happy days are here again.
- Barky the Wonder President
Posted by: cherry π at July 27, 2011 09:48 AM (OhYCU)
Win the battle and later the war rather than win the battle and lose the war, which is the 2012 election.
This is another point that I don't see addressed enough. It seems to me the real action will come in 2013, assuming a Republican congress and/or White House.
Posted by: arhooley at July 27, 2011 09:48 AM (z32d6)
Posted by: WalrusRex at July 27, 2011 09:48 AM (Hx5uv)
Posted by: chazmartel at July 27, 2011 09:48 AM (wlSqE)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at July 27, 2011 09:49 AM (mf8Ua)
Posted by: FRONT TOWARD LEFT at July 27, 2011 09:49 AM (cbyrC)
Posted by: BumperStickerist at July 27, 2011 09:49 AM (h6mPj)
Please just give us 2 weeks at the debt ceiling to see what happens. I think I know.
1. We save $4B X 14 days = $56B.
2. These guys will scramble to raise it, because their phoney baloney jobs depend on passing out your childrens and grandchildrens piggy banks to lazy worthless slobs and african junk washing researchers.
That's a great point. At $4 billion per day we'd cut more money in one day than Boner's awesome plan would cut in one year.
Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater at July 27, 2011 09:49 AM (JxMoP)
- Barky the Wonder President"
FIFY
Posted by: Sgt. York at July 27, 2011 09:50 AM (avDul)
Posted by: Guy Fawkes at July 27, 2011 09:50 AM (mf8Ua)
the TEA Party folks are on to that bullshit and aren't buying it for a minute anymore, what you just described is a perscription for disaster. But it is the exact kind of thinking that goes on in GOP circles and that's why the TEA Party exists.
-------
But when you tell them this is when they pipe up and tell you to stfu and just be quiet, the big boys are talking. You see, they only want you to pay attention and stay informed when it's the Dems effin up and playing tricks, but when they do it, it's because they HAVE to, don't you see? So please, please, please just let them get away with their budget gimmickry just one more time, because they are on your side and once they have the power, they will really, truly be different. Promise.
Posted by: Rich at July 27, 2011 09:50 AM (wnGI4)
Nothing can stop either of those things.
Post-2010-election legislative votes are (and have been) only messages to GOP-inclined voters. They either say "You sent us here to say 'no,' knowing that's all we can really do, so we'll do that," or "Eat shit, crackaz." And they all say eat shit.
In this case, the country is 2/3 on the side of the shit-eating crackaz, but reminding the crackaz once again that it's their place to eat shit, and only ever to always eat shit, no matter how many not-crackaz they can assemble on their side (2/3!), is more important than taking a chance to notch some goodwill with 2/3(!) of the country in one move.
The Party has its priorties. Losing in '12 is one of them.
Posted by: oblig. at July 27, 2011 09:51 AM (xvZW9)
Monty made a very good point a few days ago, that the whole scheme of Entitlements is the hill that the Democrats will die on.
Without the ability to pass out money to the various factions in their party, the Democrat coalition begins to fall apart, and will be in disarray.
So ask yourselves something : What strategy is the best course for the Republicans to win the 2012 elections, both in gaining a majority in th eSenate and winning the Presidency?
Forget the debt ceiling for just a minute, forget the competing bills from Reid and Boehner, forget the CCB and the Balanced Budget Amendment.
Just what strategy will break the Democrat unity and divide the factions in the party?
Okay, backt to the Debt Limit and back on your heads.
Posted by: Reader C.J. Burch writes..... at July 27, 2011 09:51 AM (oiG2m)
There's politics and there's reality.
... blablabla ...
For that reason, any plan that includes an increase in the debt ceiling is fundamentally unserious.
Posted by: Brian L. at July 27, 2011 09:51 AM (NAlbk)
Maybe the U.S.govt. doesnt deserve a AAA rating.
We are in freefall and reality is coming with a vengence. Nothing this congress and president are capable of doing is going to stop that. Better we get to the pain and deal with it in a sane manner.
Posted by: Hammer at July 27, 2011 09:52 AM (hVGDL)
Obama will be in-charge of beginning to rebuild. How can we trust him to be honest? What if he decides to go full Chavez? Who's to stop him from continuing to print more money?
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 27, 2011 09:52 AM (o2lIv)
Posted by: frode at July 27, 2011 09:52 AM (8z3Pa)
Posted by: t-bird at July 27, 2011 09:53 AM (FcR7P)
Posted by: Reality at July 27, 2011 09:53 AM (AZGON)
I suckered you morons into thinking this debt ceiling deal is important.
I suckered you morons into splitting the party and pissing on Boehner.
I suckered you morons into taking charge of the (doomed) economy.
Happy days are here again.
- Barky the Wonder President
-------
You still haven't told me how the Rs are getting out of this w/o taking blame.
And btw, if we are just in this for political games, then pass Reid's plan and then when the credit rating gets cut, we can blame it on them. That's how your saying it will work, right?
Posted by: Rich at July 27, 2011 09:53 AM (wnGI4)
"my guess is there will be a bigger retrenchment of bigger more oppressive govt."
That's the plan
Posted by: Cloward-Piven at July 27, 2011 09:53 AM (ucq49)
Please just give us 2 weeks at the debt ceiling to see what happens. I think I know.
1. We save $4B X 14 days = $56B.
2. These guys will scramble to raise it, because their phoney baloney jobs depend on passing out your childrens and grandchildrens piggy banks to lazy worthless slobs and african junk washing researchers.
That's a great point. At $4 billion per day we'd cut more money in one day than Boner's awesome plan would cut in one year.
Posted by: Ghost of Lee Atwater
As a fundraiser, we can start a dead pool on pet projects and departments that get it in the neck. I have dibs on the coked up cowboy monkey poets.
Posted by: Blue Hen at July 27, 2011 09:53 AM (6rX0K)
Posted by: BumperStickerist at July 27, 2011 09:54 AM (h6mPj)
Otherwise you may need to be evaluated for any possibility of harming yourself, a self destructive trait that you might unfortunately share with many of our delusional fellow citizens.
Posted by: ontherocks at July 27, 2011 09:56 AM (HBqDo)
Posted by: JackStraw at July 27, 2011 09:56 AM (TMB3S)
So many commenters here seem to think politicians are the root of the nation's problem.
They're not.
The problem is the people who vote (or don't vote) for the politicians. The problem is the people who want something for nothing. The problem is the people who don't understand that "government money" isn't free money conjured out of thin air. The problem is the people who are too goddamn stupid or apathetic to inform themselves about how our government works. The problem is the people who don't understand that their progressive, tolerant, environmentally-friendly lifestyle is only possible in a prosperous and strong Western Democracy. The problem is the people who think that prosperous and strong Western Democracies are the rule rather than the exception in human history.
It should have been obvious that the Boehner plan wouldn't actually cut a damn thing. No bill that cuts so much as a majority of the projected spending increases from the previous baseline would ever pass both houses and be signed into law. This debate has never actually been about raising the debt ceiliing or cutting spending. It's always been about politcal maneuvering to pin blame on the other side. Specifically, the president, his party, and their media water-carriers have conspired to use this manufactured crisis to demonize their opponents and resuscitate Obama's chances of winning a second term.
Don't blame John Boehner or Mitch McConnell. It's not their fault. Don't blame Barack Obama or Harry Reid, either. It's not truly their fault, either.
Blame that stupid asshole who lives across the street from you who doesn't pay attention to the news because "it's too depressing and, anyway, all politicians are the same." Blame the legion of 26-year-old college nitwits who get their news from comedy shows and internet forums. Blame the guy who rails against government spending as long as their own entitlement checks aren't affected. Blame the racist son-of-a-bitch who votes for candidates based on skin color.
The politicians are just the symptom. The citizens are, unfortunately, the disease.
Posted by: Lurk Ness Monster at July 27, 2011 09:59 AM (Ce4EH)
Posted by: Brian at July 27, 2011 10:00 AM (kFeuD)
Posted by: Waterhouse
...........
Right.. Bush decided to have 2 wars and cut taxes that would have paid for them... And passed Medicare Part D without paying for it..
Several trillion dollars later, the Dems got in charge and made the Repubs look like pikers! They really know how to spend!
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at July 27, 2011 10:00 AM (f9c2L)
What 'chu talkin' bout? I needs my food stamp debit card, and my WIC entitlement, so cough it up. Now leave me be. I gots to go out now 'n look for another baby daddy. The workin' man is a sucka.
Posted by: Peggy Joseph's cousin, LaQuisha at July 27, 2011 10:01 AM (EIlEQ)
The politicians are just the symptom. The citizens are, unfortunately, the disease.
Posted by: Lurk Ness Monster at July 27, 2011 01:59 PM (Ce4EH)
Quite often, the most effective way to fight a disease is to treat the symptoms, until you figure out how to deal with the disease. See: cholera
Posted by: chazmartel at July 27, 2011 10:02 AM (wlSqE)
Posted by: Dr. Shatterhand at July 27, 2011 10:03 AM (l+flC)
Posted by: 80sBaby at July 27, 2011 10:03 AM (o2lIv)
Posted by: WalrusRex at July 27, 2011 01:48 PM (Hx5uv)
You and your McCarthyist budget witch hunts.
Posted by: The Mega Independent at July 27, 2011 10:03 AM (WCurc)
It'll be farmed out to Charmin.
Posted by: andycanuck at July 27, 2011 10:09 AM (oUG6f)
Via Instapundit, Obama would currently lose to basically anyone. Tell me again why we're swallowing our balls trying to bail him out on this? He can blame the GOP all he wants - 15% unemployment and a credit downgrade gets blamed on the President, period.
Posted by: chazmartel at July 27, 2011 10:10 AM (wlSqE)
Anyway, was thinking. Didn't the pres raise their salaries ridiculously when he took office? Well, he won't have to close anything down if he just says "look guys in order to keep the government running and not have to furlough you, I'm turning the clock back to when I took office and you guys are going to go back to your old salaries" This should make them happy, no one is furloughed, no one loses their job. and, besides, I know more people who have been given this speech since 2008 than who haven't. I don't know anyone who has gotten a raise above the salary they were making in 2008, some are making way less, but thankful, since they are "at will" employees to even have a job.
Posted by: curious at July 27, 2011 10:11 AM (k1rwm)
Posted by: Reality at July 27, 2011 10:15 AM (AZGON)
Not passing Boehner's porkulus spending plan does not = passing Reid's porkulus spending plan. Show me how that works. Either a plan emerges that actually cuts debt, not simply cutting the rate of debt increase.. or we 'default' and Obama can justify his spending priorities in full view.
Republicans can easily justify this course of action by providing a couple of examples on how households have to live within their means or default on mortgage and credit card debt.
Those who claim that a quasi-default = Armeggedon, are the same ones who told us that if TARP wasn't rushed through, our economy would go down in flames. Sure there probably would have been more short-term pain if TARP bailouts didn't happen, but we would have had less debt, and a more solid economic foundation to build from.
Posted by: Mook at July 27, 2011 10:16 AM (eP5IM)
>>The politicians are just the symptom. The citizens are, unfortunately, the disease.
Posted by: Lurk Ness Monster at July 27, 2011 01:59 PM (Ce4EH)
Without a complicit commie media and education system the average citizen would figure it out just fine, so unbiased info flow and your premise are both "compromised" from the get go.
Posted by: ontherocks at July 27, 2011 10:18 AM (HBqDo)
link
"Boehner v Reid Proposals: A Compare And Contrast Cheat Sheet"
Posted by: curious at July 27, 2011 10:19 AM (k1rwm)
Real default means that your debt disappears. Sissy-defaults make your debt jump.
But then no one would loan to us anymore... genius!
Posted by: Some says at July 27, 2011 10:22 AM (vI8R6)
.......
Yeah.. thanks for a stupid graph.. we're barely halfway thru 2011 and you're talking about tripling debt in 2020.. that's almost as stupid as Reid and Beohner's plan to reduce the deficit by loading up on cuts ten years from now.
But there ya go.. wars and Defense are never part of the problem.. they are sacrosanct. If we'd had the balanced budget amendment in place in 2002, we would never have had an Iraq war or a war in Afghanistan, because no one wanted to pay for it.
It's always somebody else's shit that is the problem with spending...
Posted by: Chi-Town Jerry at July 27, 2011 10:23 AM (f9c2L)
Posted by: Reality at July 27, 2011 10:24 AM (AZGON)
As a fundraiser, we can start a dead pool on pet projects and departments that get it in the neck. I have dibs on the coked up cowboy monkey poets.
Posted by: Blue Hen at July 27, 2011 01:53 PM
You can make a lot more money at that fundraiser if you decide who gets it in the neck by making them mud-wrestle for it.
At 9:15, it's Black Welfare Mothers of New York vs. 53-year-old white government retirees with guaranteed pensions and full medical!
Posted by: arhooley at July 27, 2011 10:28 AM (z32d6)
Without a complicit commie media and education system the average citizen would figure it out just fine, so unbiased info flow and your premise are both "compromised" from the get go.
Posted by: ontherocks at July 27, 2011 02:18 PM
Kind of OT and pie-in-the-sky, but in arhooley's fantasy new educational system, personal finance is mandated for high school juniors and macroeconomics is mandated for high school seniors.
Posted by: arhooley at July 27, 2011 10:30 AM (z32d6)
A very worthwhile and appropriate fantasy for a self-funded for profit education system, and I'd be right there with ya.
Posted by: ontherocks at July 27, 2011 10:37 AM (HBqDo)
Posted by: Adjoran at July 27, 2011 10:54 AM (VfmLu)
Posted by: Wm T Sherman at July 27, 2011 10:59 AM (w41GQ)
Posted by: DocJ at July 27, 2011 11:02 AM (61yMG)
Posted by: Kevin at July 27, 2011 02:36 PM (N/Uf7)
Wow this analysis is a massive, heaping pile of BS.
It reminds me of the joke about Soviet elections.
You enter a sealed voting booth and can pull one of two levels.
Lever one is for the communist party.
Lever two releases the gas.
Take your pick.
I reject all you RINOs and vampire allies.
REJECT BOEHNER. WE NEED A NEW PARTY.
REVOLT you have nothing to lose but two mafia factions.
Posted by: Molon Labe at July 27, 2011 02:40 PM (g5MrG)
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Fear mongering.
Posted by: Soothsayer at July 27, 2011 08:30 AM (sqkOB)