Ace of Spades HQ

May 14, 2011

An addendum on opening the Morganza Spillway (tmi3rd)
— Open Blogger

I know I'm breaking the blog rules by reading the blog before posting, but I just wanted to throw an extra knowledge log on the fire about what we're seeing down in Louisiana. A quick shout-out to 1LT J.T. Gabler, LA National Guard/ Army Corps of Engineers for his technical assistance in writing this- during the oil spill, he was the commanding officer on-scene in Plaquemines Parish, and you probably saw him interviewed during the TV time... he got a lot of air time in that time period.

Anyway, this is the first time Morganza has been opened since 1973. The Mississippi River, if not diverted, is predicted to get within about six inches of the tops of the levees in New Orleans and Baton Rouge, which causes all sorts of unpleasantries ranging from putting a lot of pressure on the levees to preventing shipping traffic from transit (ships can't get under bridges, power lines, cross-river pipelines, etc.) to the potential flooding of seven of the nation's gasoline refineries.

The Morganza Spillway is located roughly 40 miles northwest of Baton Rouge, at river mile 280. The official flow of water necessary to consider opening it is 1,500,000 cubic feet per second. Water will not flow into the spillway if open unless the river is well above flood stage.

Below the fold, a graphic and some more information...
morganza flooding.jpg

Graphic from www.nola.com.

As you can see in the graphic above, there is a smaller spillway down at the southwest side of Lake Ponchartrain called the Bonnet Carre spillway- it allows the river to flow into the lake at a rate of 250,000 cubic feet per second. It is open as of this writing.

The Corps of Engineers is opening the spillway to 25%, allowing 150,000 cubic feet of water per second to flow into the Atchafalaya River Basin, flowing down to the Atchafalaya Swamp and Bay. The two big population centers affected by this are Morgan City and Houma, which are both significant port cities that handle shipping, fishing, and petroleum. Part of the run-up to this has been the significant presence in the news of the impending release- this is part of protocol to give residents in the area ample warning that an opening is coming and to prepare.

As mentioned in the article Drew linked to at www.nola.com (that's the Times-Picayune website, the newspaper in New Orleans), a swath 20 miles wide by 150 miles long will be flooded, affecting about 25,000 people and 11,000 structures. The big impacts will be on fishing, agriculture, petroleum, and shipping... there are cattle down there, as well as sugar cane, oil and gas production, and the usual port facilities. Also, the Atchafalaya Swamp- a key wetland for hurricane protection- will get a lot of water into it.

At the Wikipedia page on Morganza, there are graphics indicating the flooding scenarios predicted by the Corps of Engineers. By opening the spillway, the intention is to lower the amount of water travelling past Baton Rouge and New Orleans, as well as protect the seven oil refineries, assorted petrochemical plants, and nuclear power plant, from flood damage.

So that's some background... obviously, this is pretty historic flooding. This is, according to Mrs. tmi3rd (a meteorologist for the National Weather Service), a result of the days and days of continuous rain across the middle of the country. The stuff you've seen about flooding near Cairo, IL (requiring the levee to be blown up across the river on the Missouri side) and at Memphis makes its way down to the mouth of the river, and it's made a hell of a mess for everyone in its path.

Here's a link to video of the spillway opening.

Posted by: Open Blogger at 01:39 PM | Comments (81)
Post contains 634 words, total size 4 kb.

1 Cool graphic. Hope tmi4th is doing well too!

Posted by: NC Ref at May 14, 2011 01:57 PM (/izg2)

2 What if the spillway door gets stuck open?

Posted by: eman: Japanese Babe and Mississippi Babe Rescue Team at May 14, 2011 01:58 PM (64xTs)

3 He's doing great- and we bought some pizza from PJ for you! Thanks, NC.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 01:58 PM (WRtsc)

4 Eman, one of the things LT Gabler was telling me is that it takes a RIDICULOUS amount of force to get the last bay closed because of the weight of the water. So that's something they actually engineer around. The Japanese learned that the hard way with their retractable floodwalls.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 01:59 PM (WRtsc)

5 I guess there is a power plant in the "flood zone". That would be Grand Gulf located in Port Gibson, MS. It is a GE BWR similar to the ones in Japan.

I suspect they are designed to handle the 100 year flood or they would not have been licensed.

Posted by: Vic at May 14, 2011 01:59 PM (M9Ie6)

Bush is killing black people again!! Darth Cheney is behind it all.

[hey, BTW, I thought Teh Won was supposed to cause the ocean to subside, etc. Why doesn't he do something...??]

[Hey #2, I'd love to see New Orlean go underwater again. ha ha ha ha. Hey Chocolate City, how's that Hope and Change workin' for ya!?!]

Posted by: chuck in st paul at May 14, 2011 02:00 PM (EhYdw)

7 Tmi thank you!

Posted by: NC Ref at May 14, 2011 02:00 PM (/izg2)

8 Vic, the one in the floodplain is Waterford III, in St. Charles Parish. It's a pressurized vessel-model. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterford_Nuclear_Generating_Station

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 02:01 PM (WRtsc)

9 Ha ha! Some red staters down South who work for a living are gonna lose everything! That'll teach New Orleans!

Posted by: Some Asshole Across the Country at May 14, 2011 02:03 PM (zzcyw)

10 CDR (hi there, good to see you again- going to e-mail you after my o-chem final this week), most of the agriculture down there is stuff like sugar cane, soybeans, and the like. That swath of land will be unusable for about two years.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 02:03 PM (WRtsc)

11 The trailer

http://tinyurl.com/5sxjxso

Posted by: Vic at May 14, 2011 02:03 PM (M9Ie6)

12 oops

Posted by: Vic at May 14, 2011 02:03 PM (M9Ie6)

13 Some Asshole- Ain't it the truth. One five-square mile area of an entire metropolitan area that refuses to get back to its feet (unlike most of the rest of the metro area) means the whole thing needs to be nuked, by the previous logic.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 02:04 PM (WRtsc)

14 Ain't it the truth. One five-square mile area of an entire metropolitan area that refuses to get back to its feet (unlike most of the rest of the metro area) means the whole thing needs to be nuked, by the previous logic.

Heh. Glad we paid to rebuild the place after Katrina just so it can flood again.

Posted by: NC Ref at May 14, 2011 02:07 PM (/izg2)

15 NC, the area that got torn up during Katrina is roughly 100 miles to the east of the area that's in the flood graphic.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 02:08 PM (WRtsc)

16 Tmi...I hear ya, but New Orleans WILL flood again. Maybe not this time. Just like Davenport, IA flooded like three times in ten years before they rebuilt on higher ground.

Posted by: NC Ref at May 14, 2011 02:10 PM (/izg2)

17 Oh, and just for clarity- at the Wiki page linked in the post, there are yearly communications to the residents in the area that warn them to be ready if Morganza ever has to open. I have friends in Morgan City and in Houma that I'm certainly concerned for, but these are the risks of living in easily-flooded areas. These friends of mine work around that by building their houses off the ground, which they'd do anyway, living in the path of hurricanes.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 02:11 PM (WRtsc)

18 significant port cities that handle shipping, fishing, and petroleum

I want to make a joke about Barry's War On Oil but it's not funny.

Posted by: HeatherRadish at May 14, 2011 02:14 PM (op4Bf)

19 NC, there's no doubt. In May 1995, we got 24" of rain in an eight-hour period that caused the worst flooding we'd seen since Hurricane Betsy in 1965. Unfortunately, since the majority of the land particularly on the eastern side of the city is landfill, there's no way to really raise the ground. It is what it is- if you want to stay away from floodwater, you build in areas that the French and Spanish built. The best possible scenario for a lot of areas in eastern NO would be to convert it to an industrial park and drill into the large oil dome beneath it. But, since that would threaten the voter base of what keeps NO's politicians in power, it'll never happen.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 02:15 PM (WRtsc)

20 I went to boarding school in Hammond, LA... we had lots of folks from the affected area there, hope they're OK. And an NWS met is one of my career "dreams" if I ever get tired of fixing broken computer networks...although there would be a lot of schooling between here and there

Posted by: Lone Marauder at May 14, 2011 02:18 PM (PzzvT)

21 Lone Marauder, as long as you can handle the calculus, you'd probably be good... the majority of the degree (outside the obvious met courses) is programming so you can run modeling.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 02:20 PM (WRtsc)

22 It finally hit me this afternoon how very sad this really is.

Very, very sad. And, my prayers go out to those who are impacted.

Posted by: The Entire State of NY at May 14, 2011 02:43 PM (piMMO)

23 damn sock. Leftovers from the last thread.

Let the sea take New Orleans back. It belongs to her. Then, someday, we can click on a link about some spooky old ghost town that God reclaimed after her got fed up with people pissing on hobos in the allies.

Posted by: Clueless at May 14, 2011 02:46 PM (piMMO)

24 Clueless, if there weren't so many legitimate strategic interests there, I'd almost agree with you (and NO is my hometown). Of course, I'd throw Cleveland ahead of NO in line...

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 02:49 PM (WRtsc)

25 Decent people shouldn't live here!

Posted by: Jack Napier at May 14, 2011 02:50 PM (zzcyw)

26 Ain't it the truth. One five-square mile area of an entire metropolitan area that refuses to get back to its feet (unlike most of the rest of the metro area) means the whole thing needs to be nuked, by the previous logic.

Well of course! Because as we all know, the entire state of Louisiana is that five-square-mile area.

We've been listening to this shit every hurricane season for six years now.

I wonder where people who snark about this stuff think the gas they put in their cars comes from....

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at May 14, 2011 02:54 PM (zzcyw)

27 I wonder where people who snark about this stuff think the gas they put in their cars comes from....

So, it's really necessary to have a New Orleans to produce gas?

Posted by: Clueless at May 14, 2011 03:03 PM (piMMO)

28 Don't the farmers get a yearly check, or is it a case of "if we flood your asses we'll pay you"? I think they get a yearly. Still sucks, but it it's not like they didn't know the big ass river was there when they settled there.

Posted by: Tom at May 14, 2011 03:04 PM (nQR0p)

29 Oh! And further, you started the whole argument, without cause mind you, on the last thread, about how NO isn't the entire state of Louisiana. If I am not mistaken, nobody has ever made the argument that it is.

You are fighting with your own shadow.

Posted by: Clueless at May 14, 2011 03:06 PM (piMMO)

30 Take it outside if it's going to get ugly, guys. New Orleans has its issues, to be sure, but the hypothetical discussion about its worth is not going to be hashed out here today. Trollbusting will be enabled to enforce that.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 03:07 PM (WRtsc)

Central Ohio got a record 7.16 inches for April.

I work at a golf course. It sucked.

Not nearly as bad as down river flooding, tho.

Posted by: ErikW at May 14, 2011 03:08 PM (r/tCh)

32 Tom, I hadn't heard that to be the case... the most I'm aware that they get is a yearly warning to be ready in case the spillway has to be opened.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 03:08 PM (WRtsc)

33 Well, if there aren't a bunch of people sitting around dying of dehydration and starvation because they're waiting for the government, I have no reason to go down there again!

Posted by: Shep Smith-Cooper at May 14, 2011 03:09 PM (vdfwz)

34 ^This. Kinda like ignoring Nashville when they got flooded.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 03:09 PM (WRtsc)

35 Take it outside if it's going to get ugly, guys. New Orleans has its issues, to be sure, but the hypothetical discussion about its worth is not going to be hashed out here today. Trollbusting will be enabled to enforce that.

Trollbusting? Really?

New Orleans is off limits? Really?! Since when?!

Posted by: Clueless at May 14, 2011 03:10 PM (piMMO)

36 Do the Cajuns turn to cannabilism like the poor unfortunates of New Orleans did after Bush herded them into the Dome and starved them?

Posted by: Jerry Rivers at May 14, 2011 03:11 PM (vdfwz)

37 38 Do the Cajuns turn to cannabilism like the poor unfortunates of New Orleans did after Bush herded them into the Dome and starved them?

Oh please God!

Posted by: Paranoid Crawfish at May 14, 2011 03:12 PM (zzcyw)

38 Clueless, have the fight elsewhere. I monitor the posts on my threads, and I'm in no mood to referee a fight today. New Orleans is completely fair game in any other thread. Take it back to Drew's thread if you want to fight about it.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 03:12 PM (WRtsc)

39 One very not cool thing about this story is that spillway. Seems the Mississippi wanted to move it's main channel into the Achefalaya, and the folks in charge decided that would impact the shipping lanes, so they decreed that the Corps of Engineers should erect a dam to stop it from happening. Soooo, the reason New Orleans might be flooding is because they WANTED THE DAMNED RIVER THERE.

The cool thing is that the Corps of Engineers could, indeed, control the Mississippi River. Now there's some hubris, and very cool engineering. At one point, the river undermined the dam so badly that they had to hire divers to shotcrete it back into place. Fighting a river that big takes serious measures. The fact that we can control it is remarkable.

Posted by: tcn at May 14, 2011 03:13 PM (QuGK2)

40 TCN, ain't it the truth there, as well. At the same time, the same folks who wanted the river to stay where it was refused to put floodgates in the eastern end of Lake Ponchartrain to prevent flooding from a Katrina-esque situation after Hurricane Betsy in 1965. There's a whole lot of poor forethought that went into the engineering of the area. That said, just like through the rest of history, we only seem to learn big lessons after falling flat on our faces. I think of my beloved hometown as the laboratory for falling flat on our faces.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 03:17 PM (WRtsc)

41 The cool thing is that the Corps of Engineers could, indeed, control the Mississippi River. Now there's some hubris, and very cool engineering. At one point, the river undermined the dam so badly that they had to hire divers to shotcrete it back into place. Fighting a river that big takes serious measures. The fact that we can control it is remarkable.

Watching the vid it is amazing that there is any ability whatsoever to direct a force of nature so enormous as the Mississippi. The ability of the human race to create, to engineer, to solve the most complex problems is simply awe-inspiring in itself. Yet, we'd better be careful not to get too damned cocky and, I fear, the Mississippi is reminding us of that fact now.

Posted by: Clueless at May 14, 2011 03:18 PM (piMMO)

42 And, TMI3d, to reassure you, I am not making judgments about the value of New Orleans, only about the long-term viability of it as a piece of land in the middle of a marsh. Songs have been written about that river.

Posted by: Clueless at May 14, 2011 03:24 PM (piMMO)

43 The Old River Control Structure was almost wiped out in the 1973 flood and Morganza was opened to save the structure. This flood is bigger. Even with Morganza opened as a precaution, the full crest isn't expected to hit Old River for about a week.

The Corps will lose this battle at some point. The Atchafalaya route is 200 fewer miles to the sea. The channel will move someday and I hope that someone in the Corps has put down the hubris for long enough to draw up a decent contingency plan.

Posted by: Captain Ned at May 14, 2011 03:25 PM (4DXCI)

44 Clueless, no worries... I know you well from the blog, and I know no malice was intended. I actually agree with you in that regard, and I worry about my hometown for that very reason. My thing is merely that when I put up a post, infrequent as it is, I like to be part of the conversation, and it's hard to have a good, in-depth, and informative chat when there's all kinds of unfriendliness flying all over the place. So rest assured- we're cool.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 03:28 PM (WRtsc)

45 So rest assured- we're cool.

Glad to know it.

Posted by: Clueless at May 14, 2011 03:30 PM (piMMO)

46 Well, NO residents better thank their betters for taking one for the team. The Mississippi can do wicked things even if people think its 'under control' which it is not. It's really just managed flooding.

Posted by: Gmac at May 14, 2011 03:32 PM (3uvyM)

47 I am really praying for these folks this is terrible for many.

I went to the original thread first and this was one of the last posts, I had no idea this happened and I bet a lot of you didn't know either, so here's the entire post: (I changed the color cause I bought roses this color today and I'm all into this color all of a sudden)

361 As usual, totally late to the thread so if previously pointed out, disregard.Somewhere around May 1st the Supreme Court okayed a decision for the Army Corps to blow open a levy in the Midwest, flooding approx. 130k acres farmland. There was virtually no news coverage. I am sure farmers protested and some small town folk were wiped out financially. The media was virtually silent to their complaints and the story. Sure, that was the night Obama had his big of victory speech about killing Osama., but certainly there is news for more than one story. There was nothing like this LA coverage and LA has spillways and levys built for that reason,. The midwest levy had to be blown open floding areas that were never planned to be flooded.. Maybe if the media doesn't report it, it never really happened."

Posted by: lauren at May 14, 2011 06:30 PM (ibCFU)

Posted by: curious at May 14, 2011 03:36 PM (k1rwm)

48 All that water is going to flood my island too.

Posted by: Hank Johnson at May 14, 2011 03:37 PM (Ia7zA)

49 Gmac, it isn't just New Orleans, it's Baton Rouge, Gonzales, Taft, Norco, and every other significant shipping area from Morganza down to the mouth of the river. Anyone who knows the score in those two cities is pretty damned grateful at the moment. I hope that the folks who got prepared and out of the way in time, to say nothing of the relief organizations that are ramping up to help, get some decent press out of it. I'm in touch with my news contacts down there trying to push that myself.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 03:39 PM (WRtsc)

50 All that water is going to flood my island too.

Where are you Hank? What are you doing?

Posted by: Clueless at May 14, 2011 03:40 PM (piMMO)

51 Curious, the Cairo, IL story was closely covered here in Kansas City and in St. Louis, but you're right, the national press didn't pick up on it. Why it wasn't a national story has not been adequately explained to me, and I used to be in the MSM.

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 03:40 PM (WRtsc)

52 52 Gmac, it isn't just New Orleans, it's Baton Rouge, Gonzales, Taft, Norco, and every other significant shipping area from Morganza down to the mouth of the river. Anyone who knows the score in those two cities is pretty damned grateful at the moment.

Baton Rouge is always overlooked, but it's a very important shipping port (the farthest inland port in the country, I believe). And then there's the refineries, of course. If anything were to happen to take those out of commission for any length of time we'd all be pining for the days of $4 gas.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at May 14, 2011 03:43 PM (zzcyw)

53 Why it wasn't a national story has not been adequately explained to me, and I used to be in the MSM.

I think I have an idea why it wasn't adequately covered. Quitter.

Posted by: NC Ref at May 14, 2011 03:46 PM (/izg2)

54 /

Posted by: NC Ref at May 14, 2011 03:46 PM (/izg2)

55 Why it wasn't a national story has not been adequately explained to me, and I used to be in the MSM. Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 07:40 PM

Have you ever worked in production? My old network is holding my loyal and faithful to the death staff in bondage and won't let them free to come and work for me. ..

Let's see .... what does THIS button do?

Posted by: Keith O, anonymous poster at May 14, 2011 03:51 PM (vdfwz)

56 Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 07:40 PM (WRtsc)

I consider myself aware of stuff but I hadn't heard anything about this at all. And then when I saw Lauren's post I thought, let's bring it to the new thread to see if anyone else heard anything.

Seriously I get to hear what kim kardashian is doing every minute but they can't tell NYer's about a flood in the midwest that was ordered by the Supremes? That's just wacko.

Posted by: curious at May 14, 2011 03:52 PM (k1rwm)

57 ^{54
Curious, the Cairo, IL story was closely covered here in Kansas City and
in St. Louis, but you're right, the national press didn't pick up on
it. Why it wasn't a national story has not been adequately explained to
me, and I used to be in the MSM.}

^{Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 07:40 PM (WRtsc)}

Because it happened at 11pm edt. No live national news at that hour, and local news isn't going to break in for that story. Plus, it happened 24 hours after the Bin Ladin announcement. You knew that would be the lead story for the week and suck the oxygen out of every other event. This was Obama's victory lap week, and nothing was going to get in the MSM's slobbering on Obama's junk.

I also think that the MSM would deem blowing up the levees to save Cairo as a "good thing", but they couldn't take the chance on it being detrimental to Bambi.

Posted by: MrCaniac at May 14, 2011 03:53 PM (eKuOw)

58 Barry my bro won't let me down. I know I had my head up my ass during Katrina, but I ain't takin' chances. Happens again and folks will start thinkin' I don't know shit.

Damn Houston, kept the black folk and sent me their Mexicans!

Posted by: Ray Nagin at May 14, 2011 03:55 PM (vdfwz)

59 Thank you for the graphic. I've already linked the post to a few of my friends who grew up in Louisiana and were trying to explain things to me. I figured they might come and comment since they are sort of preoccupied with this now.

Posted by: curious at May 14, 2011 03:56 PM (k1rwm)

60 carville lives in Louisiana, I think in New Orleans. I remember seeing him interviewed and he was determined to go back there after Katrina with mary and the kiddies.

Posted by: curious at May 14, 2011 03:58 PM (k1rwm)

61 The down side is, if New Orleans doesn't flood what will the looters do?

Posted by: Buffalobob at May 14, 2011 03:59 PM (QPgXF)

62 9 Some crops are getting wiped out too. That's not gonna help food costs.

There is plenty of food! And cheap. No one will go hungry.

Posted by: Walter Duranty at May 14, 2011 04:03 PM (/izg2)

63 That said, just like through the rest of history, we only seem to learn big lessons after falling flat on our faces.

It is only from big mistakes that one learns big lessons.

Posted by: Yoda at May 14, 2011 04:10 PM (/izg2)

64 Great move by Lecavalier, great save too.

Posted by: NC Ref at May 14, 2011 04:26 PM (/izg2)

65 I can't be the only one to notice that it looks like there is a giant dildo in that graphic there.

Posted by: Robert at May 14, 2011 05:07 PM (4q6A5)

66 Shhh... you're going to blow my homoerotic cover! It's a trap for Andi "Glutesy" Sullivan... if I have to go to phase II, I'll bait it with a picture of Trig Palin...

Posted by: tmi3rd at May 14, 2011 05:16 PM (WRtsc)

67 Does anyone know how many of the refineries will be at reduced capacity due to no river traffic? I think some of the LaPlace~Baton Rouge refineries offload ships from river docks.

Posted by: Gandalf de Blanco at May 14, 2011 06:00 PM (1Ap7+)

68 a wall of water as big as CT?

Posted by: curious at May 14, 2011 06:57 PM (k1rwm)

69 map, scenario 1

map, scenario 2

map, scenario 3

Posted by: curious at May 14, 2011 07:19 PM (k1rwm)

70 I'm in Baton Rouge....the water is unbelievably high, and the river has yet to crest. Opening Morganza Spillway is only expected to drop the level by two feet (according to our local reports), and doesn't guarantee the levees along the river between here and NO will not be breached. But the action is being taken to hopefully prevent flooding of industries, major cities and colleges along the river, and to keep river traffic moving....all of which helps the entire state. The flood basin was set up over fifty years ago for this specific reason, and thankfully hasn't been needed since 1973. We could use everyone's prayers down here....Thanks.

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