Ace of Spades HQ

December 05, 2011

CAC's 1,234,482th Thread Telling You Pennsylvania is Turning Red
— CAC

Today's edition of "Pennsylvania isn't a Republican cock-tease anymore", provided to you bythe Pittsburgh Tribune-Review:

Without a collapsing economy to remind these voters why they're still Democrats, they will vote Republican. Indeed, a just-stagnant economy on a Democrat's watch doesn't help.
Six weeks ago, Obama visited Pittsburgh. The union crowd was thin. Enthusiasm was nonexistent; so were local elected Democrats, who opted to shake his hand at the airport rather than stand on stage with him while he talked about jobs.
...
In off-year elections last month, Republicans increased Pennsylvania counties they control by 12, to 52 of 67. Most gains were in Northeastern or Western Pennsylvania, home to Scranton and Pittsburgh, respectively.
Heading north along state Route 51 into Allegheny County, a faded Hillary-for-president sign straddles a closed business and a yard. Duct tape appears to be still holding it in place.

If Obama is genuinely screwed in Western PA and northeastern Pennsylvania, he has no margin of error in the Philly burbs. Both Corbett and Toomey won Pennsylvania by winning a sizable portion of those too, combined with overwhelming numbers in the rest of the state. The old "Red T" of PA has become a "Red rectangle with a tiny zit and a fat lip", and that is devastating for any Democrat. The New York Times piles on about the President's collapse in Scranton:

PennsylvaniaÂ’s unemployment rate for October was 8.1 percent, lower than the national average of 9 percent. But here, in this old coal mining region, the rate was 9.7 percent; the Scranton area has the highest unemployment in the state. The city is on the verge of losing 300 postal service jobs. The regional food bank served a record number of meals on Thanksgiving and has had a 25 percent increase in demand over the last year.
...
Â“People are afraid,Â” Mr. Doherty said. Â“I remember when Ronald Reagan was president, unemployment was high and interest rates were through the roof. But we always thought things were going to get better. Today, we donÂ’t think things will get better.Â”

The President called the blue-collar Pennsylvania voters "bitter clingers" in 2008 and in the financial panic they still voted for him. With no economic improvement to be seen, the Presidents' numbers have grown worse and worse, dipping below those in Ohio, Colorado, and North Carolina, all traditionally more Republican states. Add in his problems in Michigan(where the President trails Romney by 5 and can only best Gingrich by the same), and the President is looking at a bad night in November, regardless what the "Swing West" does.

Posted by: CAC at 08:50 AM | Comments (149)
Post contains 449 words, total size 3 kb.

1 PA is a cock tease.

Posted by: Random at December 05, 2011 08:56 AM (YiE0S)

How do you pwonounthe "CAC"?

Rhymeth with "Rock"?

"Rock my CAC"?

Ever thee thothe old Playgiwl pictureth of Thcott Brown?

Thcott Brown rockth my CAC.

Yeah baby, yeah baby.

Posted by: Bawney Fwank at December 05, 2011 08:58 AM (Bjf6P)

3 6 months before election, PA picks you up and promises to show you a good time if you'll just pony up some cash.

A week before the election you've got a diamond-hard boner from all the teasing.

One day after the election you're broke, abandoned, and have a case of blue balls that would kill a camel.

Don't go there, CAC. Just don't.

Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at December 05, 2011 08:58 AM (RD7QR)

4 The problem with Pa. is it's full of **#@$$$***!!!!! yankees!

Posted by: maddogg at December 05, 2011 08:58 AM (OlN4e)

5 Those Pennsylvanian are clinging bitterly to their jobs and liberty. You start taking those away from them and they start voting Republican.

Posted by: WalrusRex at December 05, 2011 08:59 AM (Hx5uv)

6 Barack Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: AllenG (Dedicated Tenther) says 'No' to RINO Romney at December 05, 2011 09:00 AM (8y9MW)

7 BTW, I donno what happened in #5. I did not link anything #@**! yankees.

Posted by: maddogg at December 05, 2011 09:00 AM (OlN4e)

8 Is the condescendingly arrogant cocksucker John Murtha still dead?

Let's show a little decorum.. It's The Honorable Arrogant Cocksucker John Murtha.

Posted by: WalrusRex at December 05, 2011 09:00 AM (Hx5uv)

9 Man dude.... I am not going to be Charlie Brown again with- PA- every.damn.time.....

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:01 AM (r2PLg)

10
Obama won the state by 620,000 votes.

Big rock to have to shift.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at December 05, 2011 09:01 AM (3wBRE)

11 The old "Red T" of PA has become a "Red rectangle with a tiny zit and a fat lip.....

You might want to put some ice on that......

Posted by: William Jefferson Clinton at December 05, 2011 09:02 AM (C8hzL)

12 "Let's show a little decorum.. It's The Honorable Arrogant Cocksucker, First ever Ex-Marine, John Murtha.

Posted by: Bosk at December 05, 2011 09:02 AM (n2K+4)

Oopth.

"Thcott Brown" = Thcott Bwown.

Posted by: Bawney Fwank at December 05, 2011 09:02 AM (Bjf6P)

14 The erronous belief that polling showed PA as winnable late in the game 2008 is easily dismissed thanks to RCP. Per RCP, McCain did not lead in a single poll in PA after April 2008. We put our faith that he could pull it off, but the numbers constantly said no. So it wasn't actually a tease in 2008 if you looked at the numbers coming out of PPP, Quinnipiac, Reuters and Survey USA.

Posted by: CAC at December 05, 2011 09:02 AM (JEVge)

15 OK... I did read that Casey managed to not show up in Pittsburgh with Obama or Biden-so Casey demurred twice..

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:03 AM (r2PLg)

16 Asking PA to go red is asking a lot of people to vote against their meal tickets.

Posted by: shillelagh at December 05, 2011 09:04 AM (hRzu2)

17 Pennsylvania will break your heart, don't buy the ring kid.

Posted by: tubal at December 05, 2011 09:05 AM (BoE3Z)

19 Bad November night fo da Zero? Hell, I wanna see Moochelle throwing shit outta the 2nd story windows.

Posted by: maddogg at December 05, 2011 09:05 AM (OlN4e)

20 Should we start taking away the depressed POTUS' SCoaMF's shoelaces and belts, and keep him away from sharp objects?

Posted by: The Secret Service at December 05, 2011 09:06 AM (4H7u+)

21 Let me be clear, oh shit.

Posted by: Barry Obama at December 05, 2011 09:06 AM (fecOD)

22 Still Pittsburgh has this steel town-union mentality-and there has been all that anti-union stuff bleeding over from Ohio.... From Kasich the Croat-Steeler fan no less. (I throw that in there for the hell of it.) You cannot explain the difference between public union sector and private union sector in a sound bite-commercial. Therefore the -Walkers and Kasich Republican war on all unions-b.s. It's going to -unfortunately-be a factor.

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:07 AM (r2PLg)

23 In the end it doesn't really matter because I'd just shove the same shit down your throat anyway.

Posted by: Newt Gingrich at December 05, 2011 09:08 AM (tJa5V)

24 And then.... Having said all that there is- Philly. Able to overcome any Republican state margin by- Leaps and Bounds!

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:08 AM (r2PLg)

25 -btw Newt did you know you were born in PA? So was Ron Paul.

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:09 AM (r2PLg)

26
@15

Well:

Pennsylvania: McCain vs. Obama

FOX News/Rasmussen 9/14 - 9/14 500 LV 4.5 47 47 Tie

That was the outlier that got our hopes up. Otherwise, nothing but a sea of blue from Easter on.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at December 05, 2011 09:09 AM (3wBRE)

Don't be too hard on PA. They Threw out Specter and brough in Toomey, so every so often they let you blow a load on them.

Posted by: hounddog at December 05, 2011 09:10 AM (Hl+OL)

28 I don't see what the problem is. Idiots like Reagan both believed in Americans and said as much on a regular basis. Tool. Now we have a REAL leader in Obama. A man who gives it to us straight. Like, "Today the oceans stop their rise." And "Of course energy prices will necessarily skyrocket."

Clearly, we are in the best of hands. Silly wingnuts, go back to reading your god book and polishing your shotgun.

Posted by: Bob_B at December 05, 2011 09:10 AM (0tRzD)

29 I just scanned RCP for a recent "Obama vs. (insert GOP name here)" poll in North Carolina, but didn't find one. In 2008 he won by a tiny amount after all the votes were in (believe me, the local media were criminally negligent by declaring Obama to have won by 4 or 5 percent early on in that reporting. After the final numbers were in, it was something like 25,000 total votes (counting multiple mini-Acorn scandals that went nowhere, but I digress...). We've got Voter ID issues that are supposedly being addressed by this Legislature, though I don't have full faith in their effective implementation because, of course, the legislation is "racist".
Anyhoo, without the Obama wave I don't see how he can do well here. The University cities will vote for him, but I don't know who else will.

Posted by: Lincolntf at December 05, 2011 09:11 AM (Qjh0I)

30 I still don't believe Obama would lose PA. However, if he does, it will be a devastating (racist of course) blowout. He'll finish with under 200 EV's...

Posted by: Jay at December 05, 2011 09:11 AM (3LaGb)

31 BTW, I donno what happened in #5. I did not link anything #@**! yankees. Heh. Looks like you matched an email address pattern. Pixy made it into a mailto: link for you.

Posted by: FRONT TOWARD LEFT at December 05, 2011 09:11 AM (p7SSh)

32 aul was born in Pittsburgh, the son of Howard Caspar Paul and Margaret (nÃ©e Dumont) Paul. His paternal great-grandparents emigrated from Germany, figures.

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:11 AM (r2PLg)

"Today, we donÂ’t think things will get better"

Well, another speech about the top 2% "paying their fair share" should fix that. No, I'm not being sarcastic. The fact that people are bummed, scared, and down on the Bamster really doesn't mean anything. They'll just go chasing unicorns that much easier.

Posted by: bernverdnardo at December 05, 2011 09:11 AM (xXhWA)

34 Able to overcome any Republican state margin by- Leaps and Bounds! Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 01:08 PM (r2PLg) The Republicans control the state government of PA. I suspect the fear of fraud in Democratic cities inside Republican states would have been semi-assuaged by what the GOP in Wisconsin has done countering fraud there in 2 critical elections- the judge and recall. Republicans in PA can just hold back the votes until Philly blows its wad- just like Republicans in Wisconsin did with Waukashawaikiki county.

Posted by: CAC at December 05, 2011 09:12 AM (JEVge)

35 If we take back FL, NC, VA, and everything that McCain won, plus PA, does that pretty much deep six Bambi?

Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at December 05, 2011 09:14 AM (RD7QR)

36 FOX News/Rasmussen 9/14 - 9/14 500 LV 4.5 47 47 Tie That was the outlier that got our hopes up. Otherwise, nothing but a sea of blue from Easter on. Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at December 05, 2011 01:09 PM (3wBRE) Which is why you always go with the average, not to mention all his subsequent polls gave Obama at least a 6 point lead.

Posted by: CAC at December 05, 2011 09:14 AM (JEVge)

37 The combination of the big rightward trend of Western PA (McCain ran ahead of Reagan 84 and Bush 04 numbers in Pittsburgh metro) plus a GOP swing in the deciding Philly suburbs has me, someone who grew up in the Pittsburgh suburbs, betting dollars to donuts that a reasonably competent GOP nominee (that may be asking a lot) will win PA, probably with something that looks like the Toomey/Sestak map.

Posted by: Chris P at December 05, 2011 09:14 AM (LuvqF)

38 just like Republicans in Wisconsin did with Waukashawaikiki county. Posted by: CAC at December 05, 2011 01:12 PM Gawd that was genius that night.....

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:14 AM (r2PLg)

39 The old "Red T" of PA has become a "Red rectangle with a tiny zit and a fat lip"

A bit OT, but I visualize Illinois with Chicago as a pustule on the shaft of Lake Michigan with a drip/squirt of Democrat down I-55 toward St. Louis.

In this visualization, Lake Huron is the ballsack.

Posted by: kurtilator at December 05, 2011 09:14 AM (juh4Z)

40 I'll consider winning PA the insult to injury that is the 2012 election blowout, not electoral votes that we have to count on to win.

Posted by: Vashta Nerada at December 05, 2011 09:15 AM (XGhJz)

41 I am not trolling conservatives. Fer Serious.

Posted by: Newt Gingrich at December 05, 2011 09:15 AM (tJa5V)

42 OOOO Please let this be true.
I don't think I an take one more day of Obama. 4 more years of him and even the fat lady will be bones.

Posted by: Pecos, All Perry, all the time at December 05, 2011 09:15 AM (2Gb0y)

43 Still when was the last time PA went red in a national election...

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:15 AM (r2PLg)

44 I'll believe it when I see it. Never underestimate the power of the Stoopid.

Posted by: DarkLord© sez Facta, non verba! at December 05, 2011 09:16 AM (GBXon)

If Obama is genuinely screwed in Western PA and northeastern Pennsylvania

I'll believe Obama's screwed in NEPA when it happens. Every time I think that finally, finally people will see the light/enough of the pull the lever for the Dems no matter people have died off, Lackawanna County and the environs still go blue.

The only hope up there right now is the gas wells. If the SCOAMF mucks about with that, that may do it.

Posted by: alexthechick at December 05, 2011 09:16 AM (VtjlW)

46 OT MSNBC is leading with the "Gingrich who stole Christmas" A real objective blast from the past.

Posted by: kansas at December 05, 2011 09:16 AM (mka2b)

47 "Never underestimate the power of the Stoopid." BWHAAHAAAAA I know, people still take me seriously.

Posted by: Newt Gingrich at December 05, 2011 09:17 AM (tJa5V)

48 47 OT MSNBC is leading with the "Gingrich who stole Christmas" A real objective blast from the past.

Posted by: kansas at December 05, 2011 01:16 PM (mka2b)

MSNBC and objectivity parted ways shortly after the network went online.

Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at December 05, 2011 09:17 AM (RD7QR)

49 I am not a lecher nor a liar. Tell them, Nancy.

Posted by: Newt Gingrich at December 05, 2011 09:17 AM (tJa5V)

50 I feel better after reading this post.

Posted by: Dave at December 05, 2011 09:18 AM (Xm1aB)

51
@38

The O would have 282.

Even if Indiana also flipped backs, he would still have 270.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at December 05, 2011 09:18 AM (3wBRE)

52 Liberalism: Taking the fun out of life since the dawn of time.

I'm only hoping that this means people are starting to realize that....and acting on it.

Posted by: © Sponge at December 05, 2011 09:18 AM (UK9cE)

53 OT MSNBC is leading with the "Gingrich who stole Christmas" A real objective blast from the past. Posted by: kansas at December 05, 2011 01:16 PM (mka2b) Ah no big deal. I mean the only ones who watch MSNBC are the OWS crowd and otherwise certifiable progressives

Posted by: nevergiveup at December 05, 2011 09:18 AM (i6RpT)

54 Remember when I started the Tea Party?

Posted by: Newt Gingrich at December 05, 2011 09:19 AM (tJa5V)

55 What is the big Conservative suburb bloc in PA that could essentially be the- PA Waukesha?

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:19 AM (r2PLg)

56 I want to see the Secret Service having to drag Moochelle out of the white house kicking and screaming. I want to see her attempt to bite them and kick them in the balls. I want to see her spit in the face of reporters. I want to hear her call all of America a bunch if goddam racist crackers. Damn, that would be sweet, sweeter than words could convey.

Posted by: maddogg at December 05, 2011 09:19 AM (OlN4e)

57 Liberalism: Taking the fun out of life since the dawn of time. except for LSD, sex, women out of burkas and all of the good things about Westrern Culture

Posted by: Ahem at December 05, 2011 09:20 AM (tJa5V)

58 44,

1988. But when did Republicans have a big victory in the intervening years? There were two Clinton walkovers, Bush losing the popular vote in 2000, a 51/48 national victory in 2004, and the 2008 debacle. Not exactly a good sample.

Posted by: Chris P at December 05, 2011 09:20 AM (LuvqF)

59 Even if Indiana also flipped backs, he would still have 270.
---------------------------------
Florida, NC, Virginia...

Posted by: MJ at December 05, 2011 09:20 AM (BKOsZ)

60 One way to secure a victory in PA is if the red districts hold off until Philly and the burbs, along with the Pittsburgh distrcits report first on elec night.

Posted by: hounddog at December 05, 2011 09:20 AM (Hl+OL)

61 They turned me into a Newt.

Posted by: Rick "Al Gore" Perry at December 05, 2011 09:21 AM (tJa5V)

Even if Indiana also flipped backs, he would still have 270.

That assumes Obama wins NC and Virginia.

Which won't happen.

Posted by: Jay at December 05, 2011 09:21 AM (3LaGb)

63 57 What is the big Conservative suburb bloc in PA that could essentially be the-

PA Waukesha?

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 01:19 PM (r2PLg)

Bucks and Montgomery, maybe, although Montgomery might be too far gone. Maybe Chester, don't know.

Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at December 05, 2011 09:22 AM (RD7QR)

64 A few more months' worth of massaging unemployment data and all this heady excitement will be but a bitter memory.

Posted by: Waterhouse at December 05, 2011 09:22 AM (4/3PX)

65 Honky, dead Honky

Posted by: The New Black Panthers at December 05, 2011 09:23 AM (136wp)

66 57,

There's no Waukesha County in PA (unfortunately. Love those guys). The Philly suburbs are very swing. The places where GOP needs to run up margins is in South Central PA, the Harrisburg, Lancaster, York area and some of the Pittsburgh suburbs, like Butler and Westmoreland Counties. Plus good turnout in the T, which came through in 2010.

One encouraging thing is that Sestak did get very high turnout from Philly, and still lost. That's part of what makes me reasonably confident that the GOP can take PA

Posted by: Chris P at December 05, 2011 09:23 AM (LuvqF)

67
61.

Yeah. Flip FL, NC, VA, PA and ID and we still lose. He gets, 271.

270towin.com

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at December 05, 2011 09:24 AM (3wBRE)

What is the big Conservative suburb bloc in PA that could essentially be the-

PA Waukesha

Well, it would have to be a county. A place like like Potter county...

Posted by: Jay at December 05, 2011 09:24 AM (3LaGb)

69 BWAHAHAHAHA Whoever you tards pick is immaterial. We'll wage a sustained and sophisticated campaign of psychological warfare against your faux conservative and keep you in a state of continuous agitation and indignation for the entire campaign. Checkmate

Posted by: MSM at December 05, 2011 09:24 AM (tJa5V)

70 PA History of Voting in Presidential Elections: 1972 R 1976 D 1980 R 1984 R 1988 R 1992 D 1996 D 2000 D 2004 D 2008 D

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:24 AM (r2PLg)

71
Make that IN for Indiana, not ID.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at December 05, 2011 09:26 AM (3wBRE)

72 The Philly suburbs are very swing *swear word* I thought there might be one burb big enough that is Conservative...

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:26 AM (r2PLg)

Flip FL, NC, VA, PA and ID and we still lose. He gets, 271.

Huh?

I just did that, and Obama gets 253.

And that is giving him NH, which again, isn't happening.

Posted by: Jay at December 05, 2011 09:27 AM (3LaGb)

74 Obama first insulted Pennsylvanians with the "bitter-clinger" stuff, then he sucked.

Posted by: Jared Loughner at December 05, 2011 09:27 AM (e8kgV)

75 I think the IMF needs more money.

Posted by: Newt Gingrich at December 05, 2011 09:27 AM (tJa5V)

76 I knew it! He's one of those right-wing CAC Brothers!!

Posted by: Truman North at December 05, 2011 09:28 AM (I2LwF)

77 They see me trolling, they hatin.

Posted by: Troll Gingrich at December 05, 2011 09:28 AM (tJa5V)

78 From your poll thread CAC - How does obama get the numbers he is getting in Arizona?

Posted by: Have Blue at December 05, 2011 09:28 AM (IKTC8)

79 75 The Philly suburbs are very swing

*swear word* I thought there might be one burb big enough that is Conservative...

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 01:26 PM (r2PLg)

The suburbs are full of guilty Democrats who regret ever getting even a little rich.

Posted by: Jared Loughner at December 05, 2011 09:28 AM (e8kgV)

Make that IN for Indiana, not ID.

Ok. So leave Obama OH and he's at 271.

But he has to hold NH, CO, NV, and NM.

Posted by: Jay at December 05, 2011 09:28 AM (3LaGb)

81
@76

Did you flip Ohio back too? That might be it.

Posted by: Laurie David's Cervix at December 05, 2011 09:29 AM (3wBRE)

Dammit to hell I'm sick and tired of these RINOs confusing me with nonsense about states and voting and Obama and such. The only issue in a primary season, geeks, is defeating all them RINOs and making sure we lose the November election with a true and pure conservative hero.

Newt Gingrich is the true and pure conservative hero we've been waiting for.

Colonel Gingrich's qualifications to be our standard bearer speak for themselves. His honorable service in the military. His steadfast support of our troops. Getting out there and making sure that our armed forces know their immense sacrifices are being taken to heart.

When the Newt worked with General Clinton in the 1990's to cut the military to the bone I've never been more proud of a national leader. As everyone knows when the Soviets collapsed we didn't need a military at all. On top of that irrationality we have to keep in mind that cutting federal spending is the only issue that really matters to real conservatives (save for eliminating abortions unless my daughter gets knocked up and of course deporting all Mexicans back to San Juan). Hell, chumps, since 9/11 went down every time the Newt has walked into Tiffany's and plunked down 100k on jewelry for the missus it's been in honor of our brave men and women in uniform. Brings tears to my eyes.

Newt Gingrich, son. Read it and weep. Soldier. Statesmen. Governor. True and pure conservative hero.

Gingrich-Cain-Bachmann-Palin, '12.

Posted by: Totally Irrational Political Malcontent at December 05, 2011 09:29 AM (f8XyF)

"The President called the blue-collar Pennsylvania voters "bitter clingers" in 2008 and in the financial panic they still voted for him."

Screw them, they voted for him.

Posted by: poplicola at December 05, 2011 09:30 AM (9YQuF)

84 How many votes are in Potter Co.? ***** The suburbs are full of guilty Democrats who regret ever getting even a little rich. Posted by: Jared Loughner at December 05, 2011 Ya- that sounds typical.

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:30 AM (r2PLg)

@76

Did you flip Ohio back too? That might be it.

Yeah, I did, my mistake.

But it is inconceivable that Obama loses PA, but wins OH, MI, MN, WI, NH, CO, NV, NM.

Posted by: Jay at December 05, 2011 09:30 AM (3LaGb)

86 Phillie is a whore, a dirty, dirty whore.

Posted by: toby928© Perrykrishna with tattooed knuckles at December 05, 2011 09:31 AM (GTbGH)

87 Hey, how about we go after some of those cunt banks that jacked the economy for $$$$$$$?

Posted by: Ron Paul at December 05, 2011 09:32 AM (tJa5V)

88 Bucks-that's the one ....IIRC

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:32 AM (r2PLg)

89 SHUT THE FUCK UP RON PAUL YOU FECKIN TRAITOR SCUM

Posted by: MAINSTREAM REPUBLICANS at December 05, 2011 09:32 AM (tJa5V)

90 Personally, I'm mostly just hoping for a Keith Rothfus win in PA-4, but I'm not even counting on that - people around here still cling to the myth that there is such a thing as a conservative Democrat and will habitually vote for Altmire

Posted by: Dem Stillerz at December 05, 2011 09:32 AM (luudQ)

91 86,

Not really. Blue-collar types in Western PA gave McCain better numbers than Bush 04 or even Reagan 84. The election was lost in the Philly suburbs and the margin became a blowout with poor turnout/results in the South Central region.

Posted by: Chris P at December 05, 2011 09:35 AM (LuvqF)

92 #85, yeah because keeping Obama and having him continue to gut the military for welfare spending while a decent size chunk of the world is taken over by Islamists is so much better than Newt.

Posted by: Blue Falcon in Boston training for the ONT mudwrestling match at December 05, 2011 09:36 AM (ijjAe)

93 44 Still when was the last time PA went red in a national election...

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 01:15 PM (r2PLg)

For every state in the union except Minnesota the answer can be no earlier than 1984.

Posted by: Have Blue at December 05, 2011 09:36 AM (IKTC8)

94 Don't worry he will be able to campaign out there on our dime

Posted by: Mr Pink at December 05, 2011 09:37 AM (nq4gM)

Nice post, CAC. I have nothing to add. Except that it will be even worse for Democrats if PA passes a voter ID law, which I think it will.

Best thing that can happen in PA is for New York and New Jersey to be close, then Dems cannot bus all the voters into Philly to pad their numbers.

Posted by: rockmom at December 05, 2011 09:37 AM (aBlZ1)

96 Heh, you guys actually think I've a damn thing different than Bush. You guys really are slow. (continues shadow war with Iran)

Posted by: Obama at December 05, 2011 09:37 AM (tJa5V)

97 CAC, if you're going to make up a number, don't start it with "1,234." It looks lazy and inauthentic. But if you do, at least end it with "567." The way you have it, it implies that we're so stupid that the randomness of the concluding digits will fool us into thinking you've actually done that many posts on Pennsylvania turning red. I know it's a small thing but it really upsets me. I've been reading this blog daily for almost eight years but am now going to leave it forever.

Posted by: Former Ace Fan at December 05, 2011 09:38 AM (Sr48m)

98 Â“People are afraid,Â” Mr. Doherty said. Â“I remember when Ronald Reagan was president, unemployment was high and interest rates were through the roof. But we always thought things were going to get better. Today, we donÂ’t think things will get better.Â”

Gee, I wonder why

Posted by: TheQuietMan at December 05, 2011 09:38 AM (1Jaio)

99 Crap-Bucks went 54% to 45% for Obama last time... Maybe Lancaster, or Washington....

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:38 AM (r2PLg)

100 Israel is still gettin' paid bitches (don't matter what I jaw about) Paki's still gettin loopid, stupid. Pieces are in place for the great Iranian Crusade.

Posted by: Obama at December 05, 2011 09:40 AM (tJa5V)

101 CAC is for suckers.

Posted by: Joe Mama at December 05, 2011 09:43 AM (CYoZS)

102 Stupid crackers have no strategy for the other seven states. Keep whistling in the dark rednecks....

Posted by: Barack "Louis XVI" Obama at December 05, 2011 09:44 AM (136wp)

103 Huh. I've been noodling with the map at 270towin.com. If it's accurate, there is a scenario in which the candidates could tie up 269/269, which presumably throws it to the House.

Posted by: joncelli, too stressed by half at December 05, 2011 09:44 AM (RD7QR)

104

Did PA go ahead with changing the way that their electoral votes are apportioned? .....There was some talk about that a couple of months ago, wasn't there?

It was basically changing it from the winner-takes-all method, to splitting it between R-votes and D-votes.....which would be great.

Posted by: ConservativeMenAreJustHotter at December 05, 2011 09:45 AM (7EE13)

105 shit man, Bush and I sat back and let Petraeus do his thing I mean you fuckers think I actually run shit? BWAHAHAHAHAHA MSM FOR THE WIN

Posted by: Obama at December 05, 2011 09:45 AM (tJa5V)

106 Remember when Murtha called his own constituents racists and uneducated? Yeah he still won. They vote D even when insulted b y the guy they are voting for. You can't fix that kind of stupid.

Posted by: Schwalbe : The Me-262© at December 05, 2011 09:45 AM (UU0OF)

107

If you like your Garden State...

Posted by: B. Obama at December 05, 2011 09:47 AM (8ieXv)

108 Did PA go ahead with changing the way that their electoral votes are apportioned? .....There was some talk about that a couple of months ago, wasn't there? Oh that's right...wasn't that suppose to go to a vote... Didn't it pass?

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 09:48 AM (r2PLg)

109 You hear that? It's the sound of the Electoral College telling Obama "You're shit outta luck."

If Obama can't win Pennsylvania, he can't win Ohio either. Combine the loss of those two with Florida and Generic Republican is sitting at 273, which means victory.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at December 05, 2011 09:48 AM (VZ10+)

110

111 Did PA go ahead with changing the way that their electoral votes are apportioned? .....There was some talk about that a couple of months ago, wasn't there?

Oh that's right...wasn't that suppose to go to a vote...

Didn't it pass?

-------

I don't know....that's why I brought it up. .....I hope it did.

Posted by: ConservativeMenAreJustHotter at December 05, 2011 09:51 AM (7EE13)

111 111 Did PA go ahead with changing the way that their electoral votes are apportioned? .....There was some talk about that a couple of months ago, wasn't there?

Oh that's right...wasn't that suppose to go to a vote...

Didn't it pass?

I doubt it did.

The threat of losing about 10 EVs to the Republicans each year due to the way districts are drawn caused Dems around the country to collectively shit their pants and start whining about unfairness.

We'd have heard far more pissing and moaning about this if it looked like it was going to happen.

Posted by: Brandon In Baton Rouge at December 05, 2011 09:51 AM (VZ10+)

112 If Obama can't win Pennsylvania, he can't win Ohio either. Combine the loss of those two with Florida and Generic Republican is sitting at 273, which means victory.

My friends let me be the first to say, I will work with our brother across the aisles to insure this country stays fucked.

Posted by: Gen. Eric Republican at December 05, 2011 09:53 AM (136wp)

113 110

If you like your Garden State...

Posted by: B. Obama at December 05, 2011 01:47 PM (8ieXv)

Ahem...I think you mean the buckeye state Sir.

Posted by: J. Biden at December 05, 2011 09:53 AM (8ieXv)

114 I will be in Pennsylvania next week stumpin' for Newt. During my visit I will require secretarial help, and also someone to consult with me over dinner. I prefer 18-30 year old ladies with trim figures, good facial features, and the ability to roll with the punches. Leave your number, and I will return your call. Compensation negotiable, and hours torso must be flexible.

FIFY

Posted by: Gen. Eric Republican at December 05, 2011 09:54 AM (136wp)

115 you've been in checkmate since 1963 and you'll march right along with whatever the cunts above me say

Posted by: Obama at December 05, 2011 09:58 AM (tJa5V)

116 It's fraud, plain and simple. Do you think here in Illinois we wanted those tax leech dems in office? But thanks to the vote gardens in Chicago, East St Louis, etc, the ones who get elected are the ones that dutifully watered with monies.

From various threads i've read online, it sounds like Philly is the section 8 tumor that's tipping the scales to blue in PA.

Rock da Vote. 'An shite.

Posted by: Todd Bridges, first to go bad, last to go down at December 05, 2011 09:58 AM (qL20/)

117 I know for a fact that the Democrats in Western PA hate Obama and fear that he, Pelosi, and DWS are destroying the party, which of course, they are. A friend of mine said that Hillary Democrats have nowhere to go because there's no chance of unseating the head of the Dems to reflect more traditional Democratic values and less Pelosi San Fran crazininess.

Posted by: Carl at December 05, 2011 10:07 AM (QocR4)

118 Good ole' boy from PA here. I unfortunately have to tell ya, PA is dead. Still way to many ex union steel worker's and coal miners who will not give up the free ride mentality.

A mentality that is always tapped into by the democrat campaign platform. I still talk with family till I am blue in the face and they still believe Obama's plans to spend government money on jobs and free aid for the poor by using the riches money is what is needed.

Class warfare is what's for dinner there and they can't get eat enough. PA folks honestly believe the rich hoard all the money just to have money and never connect a business's operating expense to the ability to create jobs.

My parents still believe the sewing factory moved to SC because the owner just wanted more money and that is was in no way connected to the cost of the union labor. Really they believe the owner wanted a sweat shop. This is unfortunately not an uncommon view for many PA folks I know about thier own jobs.

Posted by: Fire with Fire at December 05, 2011 10:14 AM (lcwvr)

119

"Never underestimate the power of the Stoopid voter fraud."

Fix't. As Ann Coulter famously said in a statement, "You don't have to beat the margin or error. You have to beat the margin of fraud." One of the more smarterest things she's ever statemented.

Posted by: reason at December 05, 2011 10:17 AM (+hPIb)

120 "Asking PA to go red is asking a lot of people to vote against their meal tickets."

Bingo.
Here in CA, Mexicans are actually pretty conservative.
But they will never vote Republican as long as they're getting a free ride from Uncle Sam.

Actually, I guess they're not that conservative.

Posted by: RayJ at December 05, 2011 10:26 AM (pI/IV)

121

"My family's ALWAYS voted Democrat. They're for the little guy."

Rust Belt blue collar types are reliably stupid. A few, a very few, will get their heads out for at least this one election but I fear it won't be enough. The economy could be slowly improving through next summer. Unemployement will still be north of 6% or so, but Obumbles rallying cry will be, "See it's working! Don't changes horses now."

They'll fall for it. Because they want to. Like unfortunate wives who get beaten up every Friday night. "He'll change. I know he will." Except they never do.

Posted by: chuck in st paul at December 05, 2011 10:28 AM (EhYdw)

122 I actually tried to find out if it passed... Can't navigate the search at the Post-Gazette very well. Don't even really know the terms to use for the search.

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 10:34 AM (r2PLg)

123 Unemployement will still be north of 6% or so

Way north. No way in hell we see under 7.5% before next November.

Posted by: toby928© Perrykrishna with tattooed knuckles at December 05, 2011 10:39 AM (GTbGH)

124 I live here, PA will go Red in 2012. My two lib neighbors can't stand Obama. They are voting GOP next year and talking about it. Talking about it. Wrap your head around that.

Posted by: Marie at December 05, 2011 10:40 AM (H50jQ)

125

127 I actually tried to find out if it passed...

Me too.....tried several different search-word combinations.

I was hoping that maybe CAC could answer the question.

Posted by: ConservativeMenAreJustHotter at December 05, 2011 10:42 AM (ZaEdR)

126 @ 129 I live here, PA will go Red in 2012. My two lib neighbors can't stand Obama. They are voting GOP next year and talking about it. Talking about it. Wrap your head around that.

I just can't, I have abandoned all hope for PA. It is the dream that never reaches it's climax before you wake up.

Posted by: Fire with Fire at December 05, 2011 10:49 AM (lcwvr)

127 Luzerne County here. Obama will take all of NEPA except maybe Monroe county, even without any vote fraud or suppression.
People are upset, even disgusted with Obama, but they have drunk the "He needs eight years to fix the eight years of Boooosh damage" Koolaid. In large parts of NEPA, Jerry Sandusky is assumed to be a Republican because only the GOP could be that evil.
This area is Doomed.

Posted by: Josef K., a/k/a Debbie Downer at December 05, 2011 11:00 AM (7+pP9)

128 ConservativeMenAreJustHotter Ben is from PA-I think but haven"t seen him on the thread or posting on the sidebar...

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 11:00 AM (r2PLg)

129 I think he would know.

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 11:01 AM (r2PLg)

130

My hubby, who supported Obama in 2008, got a call from the Obama 2012 campaign last week. He wasn't home, so I taked to the guy a bit and let him assume that I also supported Obama. He asked me if I thought Obama was going to win and I said, "I don't know, it doesn't look too good right now," and he said, "yeah, it is going to be a tough campaign and we are behind in a lot of the key states where we won in 2008." Then he said all the money raised on these calls was going to Ohio. I figure that means they have already written off Pennsylvania but theink they can still win in Ohio.

Posted by: rockmom at December 05, 2011 11:02 AM (NYnoe)

131 Shoot just found this published Nov 27th **** The push to change the way Pennsylvania awards its electoral votes in presidential elections appears to have stalled. Governor Corbett supports a proposal to change the winner-take-all system most states have for awarding electoral votes. The idea he favors would have most of PennsylvaniaÂ’s electoral votes given to presidential candidates based on the number congressional districts they win. The governor says he still likes the plan but acknowledges that it appears to be in limbo. Â“I still support the bill. I believe it is a fair representation to the people of Pennsylvania and to all the states across our states. I see no movement on itÂ… IÂ’m not going to push for movementÂ… but I still support it.Â” And, in fact, the sponsor of the bill, Chester Republican Dominic Pileggi, the Senate majority leader, says his primary focus is on natural gas drilling legislation and several other major issues facing the state and that the Electoral College bill is on hold for now. Reported By Tony Romeo, KYW Newsradio ***** Looks like it is in limbo.

Posted by: tasker at December 05, 2011 11:04 AM (r2PLg)

132

"Well, it would have to be a county. A place like like Potter county..."

Potter County has more deer than people.

Along with Clinton County.

Posted by: TANSTAAFL at December 05, 2011 11:05 AM (iaOP0)

133 In 2008, a year when the stars were in absolute alignment for Obama, he garnered just 53% of the popular vote (actually, 52.87% but I'm feeling generous). Now let's do a though experiment. How many out of 20 who voted for Obama then will not this time? Just think of friends, relatives, and neighbors. Surely you know 20 Obama voters. Doesn't it seem highly likely that at least 1 of those 20 will not vote for him next time? One out of 20 is 5%. If he loses 5% of his last vote total, he loses the election. Of course, I think he will lose far more than 1 in 20. He is no longer a novelty, he has a record, his charisma balloon has lost all its air, the youth and black vote will unlikely return to its previous levels, the crossover voters last time will definitely return to the fold. It seems very likely he'll lose 2 to 5 out of 20 votes from 2008. Poll numbers support this. If so, it will be an historic rejection. But even if just 1 in 20 flip to the Republican side of the ledger, he loses.

Posted by: MaxMBJ at December 05, 2011 11:06 AM (deaac)

134

136....Looks like it is in limbo.

Thanks, tasker.

Posted by: ConservativeMenAreJustHotter at December 05, 2011 11:16 AM (ZaEdR)

135
Am I the only one who sees a potential problem with turnout if Romney gets the nod? I keep looking at the support percentage, and wonder if that will increase. Will ABO be enough?

Is my concern warranted, or have all the flame wars here biased my opinion?

Posted by: irongrampa at December 05, 2011 11:26 AM (SAMxH)

136 I'm sorry, I'd like to believe, Marie. But I'm here in PA and I'm with Fire-with-Fire. The other thing is, we actually DON'T like too much liberty here in Pennsy. Look at the LC-freaking-B. Still kicking. We still have state stores. Can't order wine online. We get what they let us get. Our grocers are also completely controlled by powerful unions. I go to supermarkets in other states and cry like freaking Robin Williams in Moscow on the Hudson. PA - fat, slow and stupid.

Posted by: BlackOrchid at December 05, 2011 11:43 AM (SB0V2)

137 140. I don't know what Romney will do in OTHER states, but from what I hear from the Philly burbs, he will be golden for the ladies here in ChesCo, Buck and MontCo. They seem to really like Mittens, Rs and Ds and Indy's. And their husbands vote how they're told

Posted by: BlackOrchid at December 05, 2011 11:44 AM (SB0V2)

138 Wow the more I think about it PA is such a split state. We of course act all snarky and call it "Pennsyltucky" out west. But that's really the heart of Pennsy, Lancaster and points west and north. You have blue collar, union, rust belt Pennsyltucky, which could go "Reagan Dem" and then you have Bucks (a suburb of NYC practically), Chester, MontCo and maybe DelCo (sort of blue collar there tho) which are very hoity-toity "third way" type Indies, libs and Rockefeller Rs.

Posted by: BlackOrchid at December 05, 2011 11:46 AM (SB0V2)

139 With each passing thread, I will say you morons are getting more optimistic, albeit with a truckload of caution. 9-1 against the first few hints I dropped about a reddening keystone state, now its about 6-4 against.

Posted by: CAC at December 05, 2011 11:53 AM (qHWj4)

140 forgot to add - the apportioning of EC votes thing is dead in the water. Actually every damn thing is on hold while our Ds (our state house is not all that R, not enough to stop their shenanigans) fight like hell over the redistricting we have to do. I'm just grumpy b/c the bill to privatize the liquor stores is stalled (along with everything else). People here are pretty down about it all. Of course they don't know WHY nothing seems to be happening with our legislature. God forbid the news tells us why.

Posted by: BlackOrchid at December 05, 2011 11:56 AM (SB0V2)

141 If Newt is the nominee, Pennsylvania will be the least of our worries. After Obama wins it by 15 points, we're going to be trying to figure out how to hold onto Arizona and Montana.

Posted by: The War Between the Undead States at December 05, 2011 12:01 PM (rrzy7)

142 The morose Dem electorate in 2012 will probably let us hold the turnout in Philadelphia to 102% of eligible voters.

Posted by: Annoyer of Liberal Acquaintances at December 05, 2011 12:11 PM (nTjSs)

143 Obama is a stuttering clusterf*ck of a miserable failure.

Posted by: steevy at December 05, 2011 02:00 PM (7WJOC)

144 Just checked. Yep, Romney still sux.

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148 137

"Well, it would have to be a county. A place like like Potter county..."

Potter County has more deer than people.

Along with Clinton County.

Posted by: TANSTAAFL at December 05, 2011 03:05 PM (iaOP0)

Support the franchise for Ungulates!!

Posted by: Have Blue at December 05, 2011 08:57 PM (IKTC8)

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