1 god I hate seeing my state (CO) blue. No argument that its correct I just hate seeing it.

2 Rs will win Nevada, Virginia, and Colorado

3 I'd gladly go into an election tomorrow with numbers like that. Particularly being here in NC, where Obama barely squeaked out a win. He has no chance of carrying this State in 2012.

4
What's your feeling on PA?

5 Rs will also win Penn, Ohio, and Iowa, and NH

no offense, man, but your map reeks of Pessimism.

6 6th

7 Sorry, PA is a lost cause. Concentrate on VA, OH, and ME.

8 Michigan?!??!??!?

9 I'll buy that for a dollar!

10 I.m assuming a Decent Candidate and a Good Campaign

McMaverick had / did neither.  Nominate another McCain, and your map applies

11 the very hard electorate

Not my fault. PAB looked quite fetching on the Red Eye clip I just watched.

12

New Mexico just elected a Republican governor.  Ohio was a bloodbath.  Ditto Wisconsin.

And with that, we need one more state.  Most likely Virginia.

It's still a long way from '12.  And since the Dems appear to have decided that they will pick Huck for us, let's not do that.

 

13 I'd vote for Unknown in a new york minute.

14 I think CO's blueness may be overstated, the GOP's failure there in the last election was largely self-inflicted.

The ability of the GOP to hold on to some of the Rust Belt is highly dependent on those new state governments crushing all the little ACORNs once and for all.  We may see halfway clean elections for the first time in decades.

Schwarzenegger crapped on the California GOP's chances for a long time...

15 I'm a sure thing!!!!

16 NH is gone. They like their asshole Democrat governor up there. His name is Lynch, but he's such a political fag, they call him 'Flinch.'

17 4
What's your feeling on PA?

PA is the electoral temptress, teasing Republicans every Presidential cycle, but alas, always returning to the Dems who have spurred her. 

Although it is great to read about Pat Toomey being sworn in.  He'll be a sight for sore eyes for those having to put up with Arlen Sphincter all these years.

18 Too early for this.  Obama may yet turn out to be a good, solid conservative.

19 Two words:

1. Bull

2. Shit.

Combine as necessary.

Otherwise, ignore until January, 12.

20 btw, David Dreier is the new Chairman of the House Rules Committee and he's speaking on C-SPAN now

He's paid his dues and proven his ability, so it's good to see good men rewarded

21 If Rubio is on the ticket as Veep, I think more states out West come into play.

22 Does that map take into account the re-apportioning. Re-apportionment?

23 VA is red in a landslide next time.

24 I always liked Drieir. It sickens that people try to smear him as a fag.

25 Kratos speaks wisely of PA. She's a political cock tease and that's for certain. Not to be decadent or anything.

26

The election of Toomey gives me faint hope for PA. The Philly fraud machine did not go full bore for Sestak last election, that's true. Obama is stil insanely popular in Philly...among the black population. However, many of those union, blue collar types (read:bitterclingers) who took a chance on him in '08 will NOT vote for him again, no matter what the bosses tell them. That gives the R a small chance to overcome the hurdles if he/she runs a good campaign.

Just my opinion from the belly of the beast......

27 What we should aim for is duplicating what we won in 2004. Just concentrate on those states and don't waste time in the others.

28

Never underestimate the Republican ability to eff this up.

Plus, there is no good Presidential candidate to run against him.

Mitt, Palin, Huck? fehhh...

29

By November 2012, Cali might be down to just a few wild-eyed types in the Mojave and Victor Davis Hanson.

RED BABY!!!

30

Plus, there is no good Presidential candidate to run against him.

Bull.  We just don't know them yet.

31 You pessimists  ===

Two years ago, did you predict the 2010 election results?

This was Step One;  Step Two ( for 2012 ) is more seats in the House, a majority in the Senate, and Hussein voted out in disgrace as one of the worse Presidents in American history

we made it happen this time; we'll make it happen again soon

Lighten  up for once; today is a good day.  Americans believe in the future

( if we didn't we'd be French or something )

32 My prediction.  By the time two more years of Dear Leader roll by, California may be in play.  Just sayin'.

33 I always liked Drieir.

It sickens that people try to smear him as a fag.

Posted by: Soothsayer isn't done ranting at January 05, 2011 03:27 PM

I used to live in Dreier's district. He's an institutional political hack who just happens to have an "R" behind his name. The only time he's a reliable conservative is when he's out sucking up to the voters at election time.

34 Sock OFF!

35

14,

I was wondering how much of CO's woes this last go around was due to the cluster fuck Gov's race??  The GOP was able to win 4(?) house seats in CO, so not sure if they are full blown blue but instead still solidly purplish

36 CA won't be in play until it's a desolate, post-apocalyptic wasteland. And even then it'll be close.

37 Adios, Colorado. We barely knew ye.
Vaya con dios.

38 36 CA won't be in play until it's a desolate, post-apocalyptic wasteland. And even then it'll be close.

Posted by: joncelli at January 05, 2011 03:34 PM (RD7QR)

Taken a trip through the Central Valley lately?

39 Purposeless is right - and wrong besides.  A Republican hasn't won Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972.  That state should be blue, or you shouldn't even claim that this map is based on anything.

40 Posted by: opus at January 05, 2011 03:33 PM (IebeI)

You're right about Colorado in 2010.  Many electoral races in the US are toss-ups; good campaigns and good candidates usually make the difference

Colorado was a mess in 2010; so was Angle in Nevada and She Who Must Not Be Mentioned in DE.

My advice to pessimists / Paulbots / concern trolls / RINO-obsessed cringers: Instead of whining and tossing cheap shots at R pols, do something to get good Rs nominated

or sit there stewing, savoring your rancor.......

41 I agree that PA is the cocktease of the elections.  Philly is full of libs and lawyers that other lawyers are ashamed of.  Shittsburg is filled with bought and paid for union votes, as is most of western PA.  The center is where you'd think the red would show, but they've been very effectively bought with welfare and other government bribes.  Some towns like Johnstown actively court lib voters by offering incentives to bring in "artists," i.e. people that bring no economic value to the town but can be guaranteed to live off and vote for the lefty powers that be. 

That being said, I think VA is a great shot in 2012. 

Sadly, my State of Maryland is a lost cause, and is every time. 

42 PA today is yesterday's NJ. We never thought we would have a Republican governor there, but PA is not there yet. Let Christie prove that conservatism works, and PA might come around. But not by 2012.

43 Hey, why not? We are nearly 2 years away from election day 2012, but I know most of you morons have this on your minds constantly.

Why not, first debates are in SC in May. Only 5 months away.

44 If only we could figure out a way to keep the Republican nominee unknown until after the election. Hell, it worked for Obama.

45 Why just aim for a Senate majority?

24(?) wins (of 33) in Senate gives us our own filibuster proof majority.Not sure what the states involved are, but that seems a reasonable goal to me.

46 >>>"...or sit there stewing, savoring your rancor." Let me think about this for a minute.

47

or sit there stewing, savoring your rancor.......

Or yearning moistly for a Conservative Obama to come sweep us off our feet and make all our wildest dreams come true...

Look how well that's working for the Dems.

 

48 Two years ago, did you predict the 2010 election results?

The Cook Political Report put 39 House seats as vulnerable in December 2009. Does that count?

49 The latest buzz is Michelle Bachman getting in the race. Now that is another long shot but I could vote for her even if she is a "Northerner".

Of course, Palin is more of a "Northerner" as well so it looks like my two favorite candidates are both Northerners.

50 The Cook Political Report put 39 House seats as vulnerable in December 2009. Does that count?

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at January 05, 2011 03:49 PM (mHQ7T)

Things change--moving train, and all that............

Cook takes Conventional Wisdom Snapshots, and covers his ass well enough

My point ( if I have one ) is that barring a Colossal R Fuck-up the Dems are on the Downhill Shit-Slope of politics for the next few years at least.  Their leader has been exposed as not just a radical but incompetent

American voters don't like either--and many of the Dem Sens and Reps are both

51 Hey I know this will sound like utter lunacy but rethink Illinois. Kirk won. Last time I checked he has an R at the end of his name. And the gubernatorial race was close. Damn close. I don't think the people that were motivated in 2010 will be less active in 2012. Now a presidential election year draws in more people which means it's a bigger hill for the GOP to climb but stranger things have happened. And as we've seen in the past if you get a Reagan-type who can motivate the masses you pick up states you never would normally. At the very least the election of Republicans in states like Massachusetts and Illinois means the Dems will have to spend a lot more time and money on these states than normal. Which will help us in the swing states.

52 CO isn't that much of a lost cause. Clinton won them in 1992, but Gore and Kerry lost them, until Obama won them in 2008. They're in play.

53

Or yearning moistly for a Conservative Obama to come sweep us off our feet and make all our wildest dreams come true...

Look how well that's working for the Dems.

 Posted by: Lincolntf at January 05, 2011 03:48 PM (hUf/c)

that probably makes sense to you but makes no fuckin' sense at all to me

Rs are not Dems;  their reality is not our reality; their rules are not...............

I didn't say to sit there amazed at how wonderful Rs are;  I said to get out and work to get good R nominees.

the Left woke up and DID work ( and steal and bribe ) to win elections we should have won.  We should do the waking up NOW

54 My point ( if I have one ) is that barring a Colossal R Fuck-up the Dems are on the Downhill Shit-Slope of politics for the next few years at least.  Their leader has been exposed as not just a radical but incompetent.

Not enough to put PA in play; even MI is a stretch. Obama enjoys 50% approval ratings again, so how is he exposed as a radical?

55 Hey I know this will sound like utter lunacy but rethink Illinois.

Nope. Kirk worked his way up from winning House elections and has a stellar record, despite the "lies" about his military record. It would take money the RNC doen't have to even make IL competitive. They want to elect Rahm as the Mayor of Chicago, even with him running against a black politician.

56 It sickens that people try to smear him as a fag. Posted by: Soothsayer isn't done ranting at January 05, 2011 03:27 PM (uFokq) Sorry buddy, but you are wrong on two counts. I live in his district here. 1- he is most definitely gay, and thats the reason those of us here in Upland and Rancho Cucamonga constantly crack gay jokes about him. 2- He is at best Rino-lite. He was terribly weak on immigration and he even said "not everyone wants to overturn obamacare" I will vote for him until a viable conservative can boot him in a primary, and I credit his balancing act avoiding the 2006 or 2008 axe here (unfortunately our district includes Claremont which thinks Berkeley is "too conservative", and he almost lost in 200 . Otherwise, no point in defending him.

57
Not enough to put PA in play; even MI is a stretch. Obama enjoys 50% approval ratings again, so how is he exposed as a radical?

Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at January 05, 2011 04:01 PM (mHQ7T)

I never said MI was in play, but PA is.   Again, it depends on the candidate and the campaign.  Do a "McCain" and several toss-up states Go Red again

Obama's approval rating among 'independent' voters has Greatly Sunk this past year, and I think that is because they increasingly see him as what he is.  Voting studies consistently show that 'indies' back away from ideologues and Total Fuck-ups

Obama is both.  The fifty percent approval rating is AS A PERSON, not on his performance in office.  Clinton was pulling 2/3 approval as a person while getting below 20% as a president

58 Posted by: Tattoo De Plane at January 05, 2011 04:04 PM (mHQ7T) But Chicago isn't Illinois. And Illinois added a lot of new Republican congressman. Illinois also elected a Republican to Senate. And yes Chicago historically has controlled the fate of the state. But... ...the black vote is going to be down. Black people are pissed off at Obama. They think he didn't deliver whatever entitlements they deserve. ...the white vote will be down because the historic or guilt factor is played out now. ...private unions are near dead and the ones remaining see their demise at the hands of public unions. And they've lost their control over many if not most members. Go ask an Illinois plumber if he's voting for Obama in 2012. ...that leaves fraudulent votes. Which failed to deliver in 2010. And the dead normally vote strong even in off-year elections. ...I'm not sure government workers and a demoralized base is going to counter the rest of Illinois. And since it appears even the corn subsidy farm districts are electing the GOP it's going to cost the Dems a lot of blood and treasure to hold onto Illinois.

59 CAC, who cares if Dave is gay?  He's in a purple district , so if he take a Hard Right stance you will get U.S, Rep  Bloometta Huckleberry Sanchez-Stumpf instead of him

politics is compromise; compromise is sometimes necessary

60 Ohio, Virginia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Iowa...

Fuck, CO, PA and NV... seriously.. fuck them.

61 Some black folks may be angry at Zero, after all, he's another in a long line of politicians who have taken them for granted and done next to nothing for them, unless you count the DOJ's "revenge" policy as positive for the average black person. That said, at least here in Philly, you still cannot say a word against Zero unless you are in the club. People still wear Obama caps, t-shirts and jackets as if it's not a sign of the wearer's stupidity or gulliblity. They will vote for him at he same level next time, they have to protect him. What I've seen that gives me hope is that the white, union Dems who voted for him in '08 actively detest him now, and will either support a primary attempt by Hillary or someone else, or not not vote for him in '12. They may even be persuaded to vote R, depending on who it is.

62 VA is red in a landslide next time.

Posted by: FlaviusJulius at January 05, 2011 03:26 PM (SJ6/3)

I might have agreed with that if I hadn't heard that ACORN is opening up operations full bore in Newport News (under a different name, of course).  The fraud will be strong.

63 UNKOWN?  I might give this map a little credence if they could spell

64

Posted by: SantaRosaStan at January 05, 2011 04:01

 

Yeah that's all wonderful, but I was agreeing with the sentiment of your post, not implying that you were a "moist yearner". So maybe you can turn off your fucking caps NOW, spaz.

65 #63 What are you talking about?

66 #59 I don't care, I was just letting reality hit soothsayer in the head. The rumors are there for a reason is all. You are right btw about the PVI, though when Dreier first ran it was far more republican. If they can shift the district into an all-San Bernardino County one again, that will make it more so- Rancho, Upland, Chino Hills, Chino, North Fontana, Devore, Victorville and Hesperia have about 750k.

67 I am sick of the gloom and doom stuff when we had a nice day today.

Not interested until we have some candidates.

68 Interestingly enough, #8 and #9 are the most active corridors through which illegal aliens enter and then disperse throughout the USA, pretty much with impunity. Coincidence?

69 If that map holds for 2012, it will come down to Iowa, New Hampshire, and Maine for the Presidency.

Forget PA, WI, MN, and MI, i just cant see them going red unless its a landslide.   I think VA and OH will go red unless its an Obama landslide.

That leaves the 3 i named above.  All very winnable, although i have my doubts about Maine.  After two years of bashing by the media, the GOP may lose most of its favor in a leaning blue state.

If i have to pick one, id go with NH.  A state that W. won once and lost once. 

To be honest, its a shame that this complete failure of a President has a chance to win any state beyond the wackos in CA, NY, and IL.  I dont know how a thinking person could pull the lever for a guy who has somehow made a horrible economy, much worse, while failing at foreign policy on par with Jimmy Carter.  Once gas gets to $4 and the economy flails for 2 more years we will be in the worst shape in my lifetime as a country.

If America still reelects Obama, we will have finally turned the corner where the cart has more people in it than pushing.  Once that happens there is no going back.  Uninformed voters with an entitlement mentality will be a majority and the America created by God and our Founding Fathers will finally be dead.

2012 may  not be the end of the world, as the Mayans predicted, but it could be the end of America.....at least for our lifetimes.

70 Just speculating (obviously), but if they re-elect Obama but give him a Pub House and Senate to work with, doesn't that effectively make him a 4 year lame duck?

71 WARNING ON WISCONSIN!!!!

Don't let your hopes get up too far in Wisconsin. We have a State Supreme court battle this Spring  that has the potential to swing the WI State Supreme court into a libral position!

Justice David Prosser is facing 3 liberal challengers for the April Election and if any one of them wins the balance shifts and anything the WI State Legislature enacts and the Governor Walker signs will get challenged and overturned by activist judges stalling any real election reform changes here!

72

NC   is still in play depending on the nominee.  If its a RINO the conservatives stay home and the black vote will once again carry NC for Obama.   Same with Va  and possibly SC.     A RINO/moderate GOP nominee will place the south in play due to the black vote 9who stayed home in 2010).  They will not stay home in 2012 when Obama is on the ticket.   This is the same for states like OH,  MI,  and IN

 

The NE  besides NH and Miane  seem to be blue regardless of the nominee.  So the question becomes  do we nominate a RINO/moderate to "win" the NE  which we will not  or a conservative to secure the South  and make the battleground states the uppermidwest and Mt states. 

 

 

73 Obama is as popular as syphilis in Ohio.  They just voted for a Republican Senator and governor, and Sherrod Brown will be up for re-election in 2012 (and his ratings suck).  As long as the GOP doesn't field a McCain-like candidate, OH is ours for the taking.

Same with VA.  With the popularity of their governor, plus all of the red pickups there this time, this state is coming back to its GOP roots.  We've got VA.

IA, WI, PA, MI, WI, and NH should all be close and might reflect the mood of the country at the time.  All doable.

Personally, I think NV will be ours, too.

74

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75 Anyone who paints MN as undecided, a state that has gone DEM for 12 of the last 13 cycles (1972 was the outlier) and 17 of the last 20 cycles, all the way back to 1932, or 80 years - is smoking something illegal. I will also remind that the following states that you have as undecided were Obama LANDSLIDES in 2008: ME, NH, MI, WI, MN, PA (all +10% or over). If you use this as a marker, then GA, MO, MT, SD and both Dakotas should also be undecided, for John McCain won them with less of a margin that Obama won the 6 states I listed. Further, Obama has not lost one poll in VA yet. currently, the only DEM pick-up from 2008 that may flip back in 2012 is IN. The GOP will have to fight for VA, NC, IA, NM, CO, NV and OH.